Conditional cash transfer programmes: the recent experience in Latin America and the Caribbean

Includes Bibliography

Capital flows to Latin America: recent developments

Includes bibliography

Capital flows to Latin America: recent developments

The external environment has deteriorated sharply as a result of the spiraling financial turmoil, and has led to a weakening in commodity prices and fears of a worldwide recession. Latin America and the Caribbean's fastest expansion in 40 years may be threatened as the global credit crunch makes financing scarce and squeezes demand for the region's commodities. This time around the region is better positioned to weather the crisis than in the past, given improvements in macroeconomic and financial policies as well as a reduced net dependency on external capital inflows. However, Latin American markets are feeling the effects of the crisis through a slowdown in capital inflows, large declines in stock price indexes, significant currency adjustments and an increase in debt spreads. Volatility has soared, with the closely watched Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index moving to an all-time high of 70.33 on October 17, indicating that fear (rather than greed) has been ruling the markets.After reaching record lows in May 2007, emerging markets bond spreads are now above pre-Asian crisis levels. The JPMorgan EMBI+ Latin American composite widened by 146 basis points in the third quarter, with spreads reaching 448 basis points at the end of September. Spreads have widened sharply in recent weeks as foreign investors cut back regional exposure for the safety of U.S. Treasuries. The ongoing lack of liquidity and subsequent liquidation of assets is leading to a collapse in asset prices and a sharp widening in spreads. Daily spreads in October have risen to levels not seen since December 2002, making it much more difficult for governments that need financing to get it. Risk premiums for Latin corporates and sovereigns have risen substantially, but have remained well below U.S. junk (high-yield) bonds. Latin corporates are facing a steep rise in foreign exchange borrowing costs (although less than firms in other emerging markets), which raises concerns that refinancing risks will climb.So far, emerging markets vulnerabilities have been more focused on corporates, as sovereigns have improved public debt dynamics and countries' financing needs are under control. Market performance has been driven by the rapid deterioration of emerging markets bank and corporate market, as well as ongoing losses in emerging markets equities. From January to September 2008, the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Latin American Index lost almost 28%, while the Emerging Markets Index lost 37% and the G-7 Index lost 24%. While in 2007 the Latin America component gained 47%, almost nine times as much as the MSCI-G7 index for developed markets, since mid-September 2008 stocks in Latin America have been doing worse than stocks in developed countries, as concerns about access to credit and the adverse impact of sharp falls in commodity prices and in local currencies contribute to increased risk aversion and to outflows of capital. Many governments in the region have used revenue from the commodity boom to pay down debt and build reserves. Now, facing a global financial crisis and the threat of recession in developed countries, the biggest question for Latin America is how long and deep this cyclical downturn will be, and how much it is going to reduce commodity prices. Prices for commodities such as soy, gold, copper and oil, which helped fund the region's boom, have fallen 28% since their July 2 high, according to the RJ/CRB Commodity Price Index. According to Morgan Stanley (in a September 29 report), should prices return to their 10-year average, Latin America's balanced budgets would quickly revert to a deficit of 4.1% of GDP. As risk aversion increases, investors are rapidly pulling out massive amounts of money, creating problems for local markets and banks. There is an ongoing shortage of dollars (as investors liquidate assets in Latin American markets), and as currencies depreciate, inflation concerns increase despite the global slowdown. In Brazil and Mexico, central banks deployed billions of dollars of reserves to stem steep currency declines, as companies in these countries, believing their local currencies would continue to strengthen against the U.S. dollar, took debts in dollars. Some companies also made bets using currency derivatives that have led to losses in the billions of dollars. Dramatic currency swings have caused heavy losses for many companies, from Mexico's cement giant Cemex SAB to the Brazilian conglomerate Grupo Votorantim. Mexico's third-largest retailer, Controladora Comercial Mexicana, declared bankruptcy recently after reporting huge losses related to exchange rate bets. As concerns about corporate exposure to dollar-denominated derivatives increases, yields on bonds issued by many of Brazil's and Mexico's leading companies have started to rise, sharply raising the cost of issuing new debt. Latin American external debt issuance came to a halt in the third quarter of 2008, totaling only US$ 690 million. The cost of obtaining loans for capital expenditures, M&A and debt refinancing is also rising substantially for Latin American corporates amid contagion from the U.S. financial crisis. According to bankers, a protracted trend of shortening tenors and widening spreads has intensified in the past few weeks, indicating that bank lending is quickly following the way of bonds and equity. Finally, money transfers from Latin American migrants are expected to decline for the first time this decade, as a result of economic downturns in the U.S. and Spain, inflation and a weaker dollar. The Mexican Central Bank announced that money transfers from Mexicans living in the U.S. dropped a record 12.2% in August. In 2008, migrants from the region will send some 1.7% less in remittances year-on-year when adjusted for inflation, according to the IADB, compounding the adverse effects of the deepening financial turmoil.

Income inequality in Latin America. Recent decline and prospects for its further reduction

Incluye bibliografía.

Capital Flows to Latin America and the Caribbean: Recent Developments

For six years, the global economy has been driven by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policies of easy money. Liquidity has flowed from developed to developing economies, financing infrastructure and corporate investment and allowing consumers to indulge in credit-fuelled retail spending. Thus the effective ending of the Fed’s third round of asset purchases (QE3) at the end of October represents both a watershed and the beginning of a new stage in the world economy. The end of asset-purchases comes at a challenging time for emerging markets, with China’s economy slowing, the Euro zone struggling to avoid a recession and the Japanese economy already in recession. The unwinding of the U.S. monetary stimulus, while the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan step up their monetary stimulus, has underpinned an appreciation by the U.S. dollar, in which most commodities are priced. An appreciated dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive to buyers, thereby creating pressure for sellers to lower their prices. Latin American markets ended the third quarter of 2014 under pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar. In this changing external context, there are many signs that a slowdown in Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) financial markets, particularly debt markets, which have been breaking issuance records for the past six years, may slowdown from now on. Commodity prices – including those of oil, base metals and some goods – are in a prolonged slump. The Bloomberg commodity price index, a benchmark of commodity investments, has fallen to a five-year low as China’s economy slows down, and with it the demand for commodities. Investment into the LAC region has decelerated, in large part because of a deceleration of mining investments. Latin American currencies have suffered depreciations, as current account deficits have widening for a number of countries. And LAC companies, having issued record amounts of foreign currency bonds may now struggle to service their debt. In October, credit-rating agency Moody’s downgraded the bonds of Brazil’s Petrobras to tow notches above speculative grade because of the impact of falling oil prices and the weaker real on its debt. Growth prospects look brighter in 2015 relative to 2014, but a strengthening U.S. dollar, uneven global growth and weakness in commodity prices are skewing the risk toward the downside for the 2015 forecasts across the region. The Institute of International Finance expects the strengthening of the dollar to have a divergent impact across the region, however, depending on trade and financial linkages. The Institute of International Finance, Capital Flows to Emerging Markets, October 2, 2014. A stronger dollar lifts U.S. purchasing power, supporting exports, growth and capital inflows in countries with close trade links to the U.S. economy. However, rising dollar financing costs will increase pressure on countries with weak external positions. Given the effects of falling oil prices and a stronger dollar, some companies in the region, having issued record amounts of foreign currency bonds, may now struggle to service their debts. Prospects of Fed rate hikes resulting in tighter global liquidity amid the rapid rise in the corporate external bond stock has indeed raised concerns over some companies. However, there is still a shortage of bonds at a global level and the region still enjoys good economic policy management for the most part, so LAC debt markets may continue to enjoy momentum despite occasional bursts of high volatility – even if not at the record levels of recent years.

Access to international capital markets: recent developments in Central America and the Caribbean

The objective of this report is to analyze the impact of recent global financial trends on the access to private external financing by Central American and Caribbean (CAC) economies, as well as their performance in international capital markets in recent years. The CAC economies, like many other countries in the world, were not immune to the negative consequences of the global economic and financial crisis of 2008. In fact, their openness, export driven growth and linkages to advanced economies, particularly to the U.S., as well as size, made them more vulnerable than other Latin American countries to the negative effects of the crisis. In addition, their recovery was hindered by their weak linkages to the larger emerging market countries that drove global growth in the post-crisis recovery. As China and other emerging market economies begin to slowdown, however, and the U.S. and other advanced economies show signs of a strengthening recovery, the linkages to advanced economies may once again become a source of strength.

Regeneração florestal associada a tamanhos de clareiras: implicações para o manejo florestal sustentável

A crença na capacidade de regeneração florestal é um dos principais sustentáculos da concepção de manejo madeireiro sustentável em longo prazo. O desempenho do processo regenerativo, por sua vez, depende da intensidade dos danos causados pela atividade madeireira, os quais podem ser reduzidos desde que se disponha de dados sistemáticos que orientem critérios adequados ao bom manejo florestal. O presente estudo, realizado em Paragominas, Pará, tem como objetivo avaliar como o tamanho das clareiras afeta a regeneração florestal. Para efetivar essa avaliação, foram monitorados elos do processo regenerativo (e. g., herbívoros vertebrados, chuva de sementes, fatores físicos) e/ou vários atributos diretos da regeneração (e. g., densidade, riqueza, crescimento, recrutamento, mortalidade de plantas) em dois sítios do referido município. Na Fazenda Rio Capim, com exploração recente, quinze clareiras com idade de 1,3 ano foram selecionadas em cerca de 300 ha de floresta explorada sob impacto reduzido e monitoradas durante 15 meses. As clareiras compreenderam três categorias de tamanho: 05 pequenas (30-100 m2), 05 médias (500-800 m2) e 05 grandes (> 1.500 m2). Na Fazenda Cauaxi, com exploração antiga, somente os atributos diretos da regeneração foram avaliados em doze clareiras com 8,5 anos de idade, sendo quatro de cada categoria de tamanho acima mencionada, exceto as clareiras grandes que foram menores (1.000-1.400 m2). A hipótese geral deste estudo é que o comportamento dos diversos fatores analisados favorecerá maior riqueza de espécies em regime de distúrbios intermediários, neste caso, em clareiras médias (sensu Connell, 1978). De modo geral, essa hipótese não foi corroborada. Na Fazenda Rio Capim (1,3 ano pós-exploração), apesar das clareiras grandes terem sido significativamente mais pobres em espécies do que todos os demais ambientes, as clareiras médias não foram aquelas que apresentaram maior riqueza. Dentre os tamanhos de clareiras analisados, as clareiras grandes foram as que mais se diferenciaram da condição controle (floresta fechada), apresentando maiores temperaturas, maior densidade e crescimento da regeneração e maior taxa de crescimento de cipós. Nas clareiras médias, os cipós e espécies pioneiras também cresceram significativamente mais rápido do que nas clareiras pequenas e floresta fechada. As clareiras pequenas foram mais semelhantes à floresta fechada, diferindo apenas por sua maior densidade de indivíduos de espécies pioneiras e maior taxa de crescimento da regeneração (exceto cipós). A chuva de sementes e o impacto de mamíferos herbívoros sobre a regeneração foram indiferentes ao tamanho das clareiras, mas mostraram-se dependentes de características pontuais, como presença de fontes alimentares para atrair fauna e fornecer sementes. As clareiras antigas (8,5 anos) da Fazenda Cauaxi não apresentaram nenhuma divergência significativa entre si nem com a amostra controle. Comparativamente com as clareiras jovens, as clareiras antigas denotaram menor densidade e maior riqueza relativa. Considerando-se todas as diferenças observadas entre os diferentes tamanhos de clareiras e floresta fechada e suas potenciais implicações sobre o processo regenerativo, recomenda-se que grandes clareiras sejam evitadas. As clareiras pequenas e médias reúnem mais atributos favoráveis à sustentabilidade do manejo madeireiro.

Bioecologia e produção comercial do caranguejo-uçá (Ucides cordatus Linnaeus, 1763) em Quatipurú - Pará

Os manguezais possuem uma enorme importância sócio-econômica para as populações tradicionais que a habitam, nesses ambientes é comum encontramos o caranguejo-uçá (Ucides cordatus), representando para muitas comunidades a principal fonte de subsistência. O município de Quatipuru, localizado no nordeste paraense é um bom exemplo de demonstração da importância deste recurso para a sua comunidade, nos últimos anos o município vem apresentado os maiores valores de produção comercial do caranguejo-uçá no estado do Pará (CEPNOR/IBAMA, 2006), entretanto, trabalhos específicos como a bioecologia da espécie no município, são inexistentes. Neste sentido, este trabalho traz informações a respeito da biologia e ecologia da espécie, bem como, informações sobre a produção comercial no município. Na realização dos trabalhos bioecologicos, foram feitos monitoramentos de 02 (duas) áreas dos manguezais da região, no período de Setembro de 2006 a Julho de 2007, a fim de se obter dados sobre a densidade, proporção sexual, biometria e parâmetros ambientais. No estudo da produção comercial, foi estimada a produção anual do município, os métodos de captura e a biometria (largura da carapaça e peso total) dos caranguejos comercializados. Com relação aos animais provenientes das coletas de campo, os estudos demostraram não haver diferenças significativas entre as duas áreas, tanto pra densidade que foi de 1,36 tocas/m² na área 01 e 1,21 tocas/m² na área 02, com também para a proporção sexual que foi de 2,39M: 1F na área 01 e 1,43M: 1F, entretanto, foi encontrado no decorrer do ano, um número maior de fêmeas no mês de maio 2007 na região 02. Com relação às análises biométricas, a largura média da carapaça (LC) encontrada foi de 6.13 cm para os machos e 5,46 cm para as fêmeas na área 01 e 6,31 cm para os machos e 5,33 cm para fêmeas na área 02, com relação ao peso, a média registrada foi de 96,73g para os machos e 67,93g para as fêmeas na área 01 e 106,47g para os machos e 64,85 g para as fêmeas na área 02, sendo observada uma forte correlação entre essas variáveis tanto para os machos quanto para as fêmeas, nas duas áreas, verificando a influência de fatores biológicos ocorrentes no ano, com a ecdise, sobre essas variáveis. Com relação aos animais comercializados, foi verificado que todos os indivíduos foram machos possuindo uma média para a largura da carapaça (LC) de 7,26 cm a LC mínima e máxima encontradas foi de 5,2 cm em Março de 2007 e 8,5 cm encontrados nos meses de setembro de 2006 e janeiro de 2007. Com relação ao peso a média encontrada foi de 161,0g, sendo o valor máximo registrado de 300,0g no mês de setembro de 2006 e o valor mínimo de 80,0g ocorrido no mês de julho de 2007. A produção anual estimada para o município foi de 1.189,73 ton/ano, portanto, uma produção menor que as registradas nos últimos anos pelo CEPNOR/IBAMA, mas dentro da média histórica do município. As áreas estudadas demonstraram que apesar de já serem bastante exploradas possui uma densidade populacional semelhante à de outras regiões do Brasil, assim como a proporção sexual encontrada e os valores biométricos registrados. Com relação à produção comercial apesar de ter sido registrado uma produção anual menor que os últimos anos, Quatipuru continua sendo um dos maiores produtores comerciais deste recurso no Brasil, fator este possivelmente relacionado com a não comercialização de fêmeas, ao método de captura (braceamento) e o respeito ao tamanho do caranguejo comercializado.

Prevalência e fatores de risco para carreamento de Staphylococcus aureus resistente à meticilina em idosos institucionalizados na cidade de Bauru-SP

Pós-graduação em Doenças Tropicais - FMB

The NINJA-2 project: detecting and characterizing gravitational waveforms modelled using numerical binary black hole simulations

The Numerical INJection Analysis (NINJA) project is a collaborative effort between members of the numerical relativity and gravitational-wave (GW) astrophysics communities. The purpose of NINJA is to study the ability to detect GWs emitted from merging binary black holes (BBH) and recover their parameters with next-generation GW observatories. We report here on the results of the second NINJA project, NINJA-2, which employs 60 complete BBH hybrid waveforms consisting of a numerical portion modelling the late inspiral, merger, and ringdown stitched to a post-Newtonian portion modelling the early inspiral. In a 'blind injection challenge' similar to that conducted in recent Laser Interferometer Gravitational Wave Observatory (LIGO) and Virgo science runs, we added seven hybrid waveforms to two months of data recoloured to predictions of Advanced LIGO (aLIGO) and Advanced Virgo (AdV) sensitivity curves during their first observing runs. The resulting data was analysed by GW detection algorithms and 6 of the waveforms were recovered with false alarm rates smaller than 1 in a thousand years. Parameter-estimation algorithms were run on each of these waveforms to explore the ability to constrain the masses, component angular momenta and sky position of these waveforms. We find that the strong degeneracy between the mass ratio and the BHs' angular momenta will make it difficult to precisely estimate these parameters with aLIGO and AdV. We also perform a large-scale Monte Carlo study to assess the ability to recover each of the 60 hybrid waveforms with early aLIGO and AdV sensitivity curves. Our results predict that early aLIGO and AdV will have a volume-weighted average sensitive distance of 300 Mpc (1 Gpc) for 10M circle dot + 10M circle dot (50M circle dot + 50M circle dot) BBH coalescences. We demonstrate that neglecting the component angular momenta in the waveform models used in matched-filtering will result in a reduction in sensitivity for systems with large component angular momenta. This reduction is estimated to be up to similar to 15% for 50M circle dot + 50M circle dot BBH coalescences with almost maximal angular momenta aligned with the orbit when using early aLIGO and AdV sensitivity curves.

Consumo de extrato hidrossolúvel de soja diminui a qualidade do tecido ósseo de ratos machos jovens: Bruna Rezende Silva Martins de Oliveira. -

Pós-graduação em Ciência Animal - FMVA

Recent advances in nanoparticle carriers for coordination complexes

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Galleria mellonella as a model host for human pathogens: recent studies and new perspectives

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Report on Recent Large Bird Ingestions into Transport Turbofan Engines

Today I am going to give you a report on recent bird ingestion events into transport category turbofan engine in commercial service. We are still having these events. We may not ever completely eliminate all such events, but our purpose for meeting is to put all our resources to work to try. The events that I am going to report on today represent some of the more significant events over the last couple of years. The events are significant because of the potential for jeopardizing the safety of the aircraft involved and the aircraft occupants. The events I am going to discuss all involve encounters with large birds. Each situation reflects a bird control issue or event that resulted in a high workload for the flight crew because something out of the ordinary happened that they had to respond to. Some of the situations involve areas outside the US or Canada but serve as a lesson because that the same situation can happen here.

The chemiluminescent peroxyoxalate system: state of the art almost 50 years from its discovery

Almost fifty years after the discovery of the peroxyoxalate reaction by E. A. Chandross in the early nineteen sixties, this review article intends to give a general overview on mechanistic aspects of this system and to describe the principles of its analytical application. After a short general introduction on the principles of chemiluminescence and the history of peroxyoxalate discovery, mechanistic aspects of high-energy intermediate formation, its structure and its reaction with an activator in the peroxyoxalate system are discussed. Finally, analytical applications of peroxyoxalate chemiluminescence are exemplified using representative recent examples, including oxalic acid detection in biological samples.