Autoritarismes étatiques et régulation religieuse du politique en République démocratique du Congo : analyse discursive de la parole épiscopale catholique sur les élections (1990-2015)

Centrée essentiellement autour de la parole épiscopale congolaise, la présente recherche porte sur les articulations de la religion et du politique dans une perspective limitée au catholicisme en RDC. En prenant pour base empirique la ville de Kinshasa, elle thématise les effets des dynamiques religieuses sur les fermentations sociales et les changements politiques dans un contexte d’autoritarisme. Celui-ci est, dans ce travail, problématisé comme le fait conjoint de l’institution étatique et de l’organisation religieuse catholique. Le choix de cette approche relationnelle basée sur les interactions entre religion et politique, permet d’inscrire ce travail dans le champ d’études des sciences des religions. L’approche retenue s’appuie également sur les avancées de la sociologie politique et éclaire la régulation religieuse du politique, rarement étudiée par les sciences humaines. Cette recherche s’inscrit donc à l’intersection entre l’histoire, la sociologie, les sciences politiques, l’anthropologie, l’analyse du discours, la philosophie et la théologie. Sa thèse centrale est organisée autour d’une question principale : comment la religion participe-t-elle à la régulation du politique dans le contexte d’autoritarisme caractéristique de la RDC ? La réponse à cette question croise l’approche fonctionnelle de la religion et l’analyse des déclarations institutionnelles de l’épiscopat congolais. Elle esquisse les relations entre, d’une part, contextes et événements sociopolitiques et d’autre part, discours et pratiques religieuses. Elle construit la scène religieuse à partir de la trajectoire sociopolitique, économique et culturelle de la RDC entre 1990 et 2015, sous les Présidents J.-D. Mobutu, L.-D. Kabila et J. Kabila. Elle étudie l'offre normative de sens de leurs éminences J.-A. Malula, F. Etsou et L. Monsengwo. L’analyse de la rhétorique de l’épiscopat sur les élections vérifie la plausibilité sociale et l’efficience politique de la parole épiscopale congolaise. Elle se ressource dans la pragmatique de la communication telle que mise en œuvre dans l’analyse argumentative du discours de R. Amossy et dans celle du discours politique de P. Charaudeau. En mettant la focale sur l’objet linguistique « vérité des urnes », la recherche pose au niveau normatif, juridique et éthique, le problème de l’institutionnalisation d’un État de droit en RDC. Les élaborations sur ce dernier niveau s’articulent autour de l’inscription de l’éthique dans l’agir politique. L’examen des modes conventionnels d’action des chrétiens (élections de 2006 et 2011) et non conventionnels (marche des chrétiens de 1992 et 2012) conduit à éclairer les modes de reproduction ou de contestation de l’autoritarisme étatique par l’organisation religieuse. Il permet de promouvoir une démocratie des valeurs et d’action adossée à la parrhêsia. L’introduction de l’aléthique dans la vie publique donne à voir la parole épiscopale congolaise comme un discours ethopoïétique. C’est sur ce point précis que les élaborations de M. Foucault sur la parrhêsia aident à thématiser la capacité de la religion à informer et à influencer la démocratisation de la RDC. De là, la requête formulée pour un nouveau système d’action institutionnelle de l’organisation religieuse, susceptible de promouvoir le courage de la vérité en situation autoritaire. Cette innovation permet de tenir ensemble les valeurs démocratiques et les valeurs de l’Évangile, en les corrélant à la cohérence axiologique, à la probité morale et à l’intégrité existentielle des protagonistes de la démocratisation de la RDC.

Endogenous Risk Perception, Geospatial Characteristics and Temporal Variation in Hurricane Evacuation Behavior

The main focus of this thesis was to gain a better understanding about the dynamics of risk perception and its influence on people’s evacuation behavior. Another major focus was to improve our knowledge regarding geo-spatial and temporal variations of risk perception and hurricane evacuation behavior. A longitudinal dataset of more than eight hundred households were collected following two major hurricane events, Ivan and Katrina. The longitudinal survey data was geocoded and a geo-spatial database was integrated to it. The geospatial database was composed of distance, elevation and hazard parameters with respect to the respondent’s household location. A set of Bivariate Probit (BP) model suggests that geospatial variables have had significant influences in explaining hurricane risk perception and evacuation behavior during both hurricanes. The findings also indicated that people made their evacuation decision in coherence with their risk perception. In addition, people updated their hurricane evacuation decision in a subsequent similar event.

Climate change adaptation strategies of maize producers of the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia

The impacts of climate change are considered to be strong in countries located in tropical Africa that depend on agriculture for their food, income and livelihood. Therefore, a better understanding of the local dimensions of adaptation strategies is essential to develop appropriate measures that will mitigate adverse consequences. Hence, this study was conducted to identify the most commonly used adaptation strategies that farm households practice among a set of options to withstand the effects of climate change and to identify factors that affect the choice of climate change adaptation strategies in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia. To address this objective, Multivariate Probit model was used. The results of the model indicated that the likelihood of households to adapt improved varieties of crops, adjust planting date, crop diversification and soil conservation practices were 58.73%, 57.72%, 35.61% and 41.15%, respectively. The Simulated Maximum Likelihood estimation of the Multivariate Probit model results suggested that there was positive and significant interdependence between household decisions to adapt crop diversification and using improved varieties of crops; and between adjusting planting date and using improved varieties of crops. The results also showed that there was a negative and significant relationship between household decisions to adapt crop diversification and soil conservation practices. The paper also recommended household, socioeconomic, institutional and plot characteristics that facilitate and impede the probability of choosing those adaptation strategies.

Recovering Natural History: Modeling Cardiovascular Biomarkers in the Presence of Endogenous Medication Use

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Cross-sectoral differences in the drivers of innovation: evidence from the Irish Community Innovation Survey

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to analyse differences in the drivers of firm innovation performance across sectors. The literature often makes the assumption that firms in different sectors differ in their propensity to innovate but not in the drivers of innovation. The authors empirically assess whether this assumption is accurate through a series of econometric estimations and tests. Design/methodology/approach: The data used are derived from the Irish Community Innovation Survey 2004-2006. A series of multivariate probit models are estimated and the resulting coefficients are tested for parameter stability across sectors using likelihood ratio tests. Findings: The results indicate that there is a strong degree of heterogeneity in the drivers of innovation across sectors. The determinants of process, organisational, new to firm and new to market innovation varies across sectors suggesting that the pooling of sectors in an innovation production function may lead to biased inferences. Research limitations/implications: The implications of the results are that innovation policies targeted at stimulating innovation need to be tailored to particular industries. One size fits all policies would seem inappropriate given the large degree of heterogeneity observed across the drivers of innovation in different sectors. Originality/value: The value of this paper is that it provides an empirical test as to whether it is suitable to group sectoral data when estimating innovation production functions. Most papers simply include sectoral dummies, implying that only the propensity to innovate differs across sectors and that the slope of the coefficient estimates are in fact consistent across sectors.

Looking for a road to get out for poverty. Is the current allocation of public spending on education in Colombia helping?

This paper presents a methodology to explore the impact on poverty of the public spending on education. The methodology consists of two approaches: Benefit Incidence Analysis (BIA) and behavioral approach. BIA considers the cost and use of the educational service, and the distribution of the benefits among groups of income. Regarding the behavioral approach, we use a Probit model of schooling attendance, in order to determinethe influence of public spending on the probability for thepoor to attend the school. As a complement, a measurement of targeting errors in the allocation of public spending is included in the methodology.

Crecimiento, acumulación de biomasa seca y nutrientes en los frutos de café (Coffea arabica L.) variedad Pacas, Masatepe, Nicaragua

De abril a diciembre de 2012, en un ensayo ya establecido se realizó un estudio en el cultivo de café variedad pacas, con el objetivo de determinar las curvas de crecimiento, acumulación de biomasa seca y acumulación de nutrientes (N, P, K, Ca y Mg) en los frutos de café uva. El ensayo fue establecido en el año 2000 en el Jardín Botánico hoy conocido como Centro Nacional de Educación y Cooperativis mo (CENECCOP), Masatepe, Nicaragua. Se seleccionaron cuatro parcelas grandes con combinación de árboles de sombra maderables y de servicio y una parcela a pleno sol. Los tratamientos en estudio fueron a) Inga laurina y Simaruba glauca, b) Samanea saman y Tabebuia rosea, c) Samanea saman e Inga laurina, d) Tabebuia rosea y Simaruba glauca y e) una parcela a pleno sol. Las parcelas fueron distribuidas en un diseño de bloques completos al Azar (BCA). Las variables evaluadas en los frutos de café fueron diámetro polar, diámetro ecuatorial y peso seco. Los frutos se secaron en el horno a 70 °C y posteriormente se utilizó un molino Foss Tecator Cyclotec para obtener una muestra fina. De la muestra molida de los frutos, en el laboratorio de suelo y agua de la UNA se determinaron las concentraciones de N, P, K, Ca y Mg. Los datos fueron colectados cada 30 días. Para el análisis estadístico se utilizó SAS 9.1. Las curvas de crecimiento del fruto y la acumulación de peso seco se ajustaron a regresiones no lineales simples y dobles exponenciales. Se realizó una correlación entre el diámetro polar y diámetro ecuatorial de los frutos dando un coeficiente de determinación r de 98% (Pr>F= 0.0001). Para el ajuste de la curva de aumento de peso seco se utilizó el modelo Probit normal. El mayor crecimiento de los frutos se dio durante los primeros 90 días y la mayor acumulación de nutrientes se dio entre los 90 y 210 días. La combinación de árboles leguminosos presentó el diámetro polar y ecuatorial más alto. También la acumulación de biomasa seca fue mayor en el tratamiento con sombra de leguminosas.

O perfil do idoso no mercado de trabalho brasileiro: análise das pnads 2002 e 2012

O presente trabalho tem como finalidade traçar um perfil do idoso inserido no mercado de trabalho Brasileiro. Para a realização deste objetivo, de acordo com a literatura sobre mercado de trabalho e estudos realizados sobre o assunto, utilizaram-se modelos econométricos de resposta qualitativa, o logit e o probit, para a obtenção da probabilidade dos idosos brasileiros estarem inseridos no mercado de trabalho, a partir de variáveis independentes selecionadas. A mostra foi construída a partir de dados fornecidos pela Pesquisa Nacional de Amostra por Domicílios, a PNAD, para os anos de 2002 e 2012. Os resultados dos modelos apresentaram um perfil de idoso inserido no mercado de trabalho brasileiro como sendo residente de áreas rurais, branco, não aposentado e moradores principalmente dos estados do Sul e do Nordeste do país.

Modelo econométrico de probabilidade de fechamento dos gaps do índice futuro Bovespa

Este trabalho estuda os gaps no índice futuro Bovespa. A partir de uma base de dados diária de onze anos do índice Bovespa futuro, o trabalho apresenta dois modelos econométricos não lineares os quais possibilitaram avaliar os efeitos de mudanças em um conjunto de variáveis independentes, a dizer, o tamanho em pontos do gap, a volatilidade do índice e volume suavizado de negociações. Os resultados encontrados mostram que tamanho em pontos do gap possui efeito negativo na probabilidade de fechamento. Por sua vez, as variáveis que representam a volatilidade do índice e o volume de negociações possuem um efeito positivo no fechamento dos gaps, sendo assim, quanto mais volátil o mercado encontra-se e quanto maior o volume transacionado em um determinado dia maior a probabilidade de fechamento dos gaps. Ademais, o trabalho realiza previsões para os fechamentos dos gaps e consegue prever corretamente 68,11% dos gaps positivos e 73,71% dos gaps negativos que fecham.

Insatisfação no emprego e suas implicações: uma análise para o mercado de trabalho do Rio Grande do Sul

O presente trabalho tem como finalidade traçar um perfil para o trabalhador insatisfeito do Rio Grande do Sul a partir de variáveis socioeconômicas ligadas às características pessoais, do núcleo familiar e do posto de trabalho do indivíduo. Para a realização deste objetivo, de acordo com os estudos já realizados dentro da literatura de “job satisfaction”, utilizou-se modelos econométricos de resposta qualitativa, o LOGIT e o PROBIT, para a obtenção da probabilidade de o trabalhador gaúcho estar ou não insatisfeito levanto as variáveis independentes selecionadas. A amostra foi construída a partir de dados fornecidos pela Pesquisa Anual de Amostra por Domicílios, a PNAD, dos anos de 2009, 2011 e 2012, excluindo-se o ano de 2010 no qual a PNAD não foi realizada. Os modelos estimados apresentaram bom ajustamento e resultados similares, apontando o perfil do trabalhador insatisfeito gaúcho como sendo aquele indivíduo que é negro, chefe de família, com baixa escolaridade e renda, residente da área urbana, que possui renda provenientes de outras fontes que não o trabalho, trabalhadores do setor informal e de áreas como a construção civil, comércio e serviços.

STATISTICAL METHODS FOR ADVANCED ECONOMETRIC MODELS WITH APPLICATIONS TO VEHICLE HOLDING AND SPEED QUANTILES DISTRIBUTION

This dissertation proposes statistical methods to formulate, estimate and apply complex transportation models. Two main problems are part of the analyses conducted and presented in this dissertation. The first method solves an econometric problem and is concerned with the joint estimation of models that contain both discrete and continuous decision variables. The use of ordered models along with a regression is proposed and their effectiveness is evaluated with respect to unordered models. Procedure to calculate and optimize the log-likelihood functions of both discrete-continuous approaches are derived, and difficulties associated with the estimation of unordered models explained. Numerical approximation methods based on the Genz algortithm are implemented in order to solve the multidimensional integral associated with the unordered modeling structure. The problems deriving from the lack of smoothness of the probit model around the maximum of the log-likelihood function, which makes the optimization and the calculation of standard deviations very difficult, are carefully analyzed. A methodology to perform out-of-sample validation in the context of a joint model is proposed. Comprehensive numerical experiments have been conducted on both simulated and real data. In particular, the discrete-continuous models are estimated and applied to vehicle ownership and use models on data extracted from the 2009 National Household Travel Survey. The second part of this work offers a comprehensive statistical analysis of free-flow speed distribution; the method is applied to data collected on a sample of roads in Italy. A linear mixed model that includes speed quantiles in its predictors is estimated. Results show that there is no road effect in the analysis of free-flow speeds, which is particularly important for model transferability. A very general framework to predict random effects with few observations and incomplete access to model covariates is formulated and applied to predict the distribution of free-flow speed quantiles. The speed distribution of most road sections is successfully predicted; jack-knife estimates are calculated and used to explain why some sections are poorly predicted. Eventually, this work contributes to the literature in transportation modeling by proposing econometric model formulations for discrete-continuous variables, more efficient methods for the calculation of multivariate normal probabilities, and random effects models for free-flow speed estimation that takes into account the survey design. All methods are rigorously validated on both real and simulated data.

Autoritarismes étatiques et régulation religieuse du politique en République démocratique du Congo : analyse discursive de la parole épiscopale catholique sur les élections (1990-2015)

Centrée essentiellement autour de la parole épiscopale congolaise, la présente recherche porte sur les articulations de la religion et du politique dans une perspective limitée au catholicisme en RDC. En prenant pour base empirique la ville de Kinshasa, elle thématise les effets des dynamiques religieuses sur les fermentations sociales et les changements politiques dans un contexte d’autoritarisme. Celui-ci est, dans ce travail, problématisé comme le fait conjoint de l’institution étatique et de l’organisation religieuse catholique. Le choix de cette approche relationnelle basée sur les interactions entre religion et politique, permet d’inscrire ce travail dans le champ d’études des sciences des religions. L’approche retenue s’appuie également sur les avancées de la sociologie politique et éclaire la régulation religieuse du politique, rarement étudiée par les sciences humaines. Cette recherche s’inscrit donc à l’intersection entre l’histoire, la sociologie, les sciences politiques, l’anthropologie, l’analyse du discours, la philosophie et la théologie. Sa thèse centrale est organisée autour d’une question principale : comment la religion participe-t-elle à la régulation du politique dans le contexte d’autoritarisme caractéristique de la RDC ? La réponse à cette question croise l’approche fonctionnelle de la religion et l’analyse des déclarations institutionnelles de l’épiscopat congolais. Elle esquisse les relations entre, d’une part, contextes et événements sociopolitiques et d’autre part, discours et pratiques religieuses. Elle construit la scène religieuse à partir de la trajectoire sociopolitique, économique et culturelle de la RDC entre 1990 et 2015, sous les Présidents J.-D. Mobutu, L.-D. Kabila et J. Kabila. Elle étudie l'offre normative de sens de leurs éminences J.-A. Malula, F. Etsou et L. Monsengwo. L’analyse de la rhétorique de l’épiscopat sur les élections vérifie la plausibilité sociale et l’efficience politique de la parole épiscopale congolaise. Elle se ressource dans la pragmatique de la communication telle que mise en œuvre dans l’analyse argumentative du discours de R. Amossy et dans celle du discours politique de P. Charaudeau. En mettant la focale sur l’objet linguistique « vérité des urnes », la recherche pose au niveau normatif, juridique et éthique, le problème de l’institutionnalisation d’un État de droit en RDC. Les élaborations sur ce dernier niveau s’articulent autour de l’inscription de l’éthique dans l’agir politique. L’examen des modes conventionnels d’action des chrétiens (élections de 2006 et 2011) et non conventionnels (marche des chrétiens de 1992 et 2012) conduit à éclairer les modes de reproduction ou de contestation de l’autoritarisme étatique par l’organisation religieuse. Il permet de promouvoir une démocratie des valeurs et d’action adossée à la parrhêsia. L’introduction de l’aléthique dans la vie publique donne à voir la parole épiscopale congolaise comme un discours ethopoïétique. C’est sur ce point précis que les élaborations de M. Foucault sur la parrhêsia aident à thématiser la capacité de la religion à informer et à influencer la démocratisation de la RDC. De là, la requête formulée pour un nouveau système d’action institutionnelle de l’organisation religieuse, susceptible de promouvoir le courage de la vérité en situation autoritaire. Cette innovation permet de tenir ensemble les valeurs démocratiques et les valeurs de l’Évangile, en les corrélant à la cohérence axiologique, à la probité morale et à l’intégrité existentielle des protagonistes de la démocratisation de la RDC.

¿Costumbre o Reacción? El efecto de ser víctima de delitos y corrupción en la satisfacción con la vida de los colombianos

Colombia ha sido un país con una larga historia de violencia y corrupción, por lo que se hace importante analizar la relación entre la victimización de dichos delitos sufrida por los individuos y su percepción de satisfacción con la vida. Se utiliza información entre 2004 y 2014 contenida en LAPOP, a manera de secciones transversales repetidas. Con el fin de encontrar dicho efecto, se estima robustamente un modelo probabilístico ordenado, en donde los resultados sugieren que la victimización del último año reduce en 6.7 puntos porcentuales la probabilidad de sentirse muy satisfecho con la vida y el haber sido víctima de algún soborno en 5 puntos porcentuales.

Dinámica de los predictores de adopción de Internet en Medellín

En este trabajo se propone analizar la dinámica del impacto asociado a algunos predictores de la adopción de internet en la ciudad de Medellín (Colombia), utilizando como base de datos la Encuesta de calidad de vida de Medellín (ECV) desde el año 2006 a 2014 -- Se analizarán que variables inciden en la tenencia de internet, se realizará la estadística descriptiva necesaria, y regresiones mediante los modelos Logit y Probit -- El acceso a internet aún se encuentra reservado para una parte privilegiada de la población que cuenta con suficiente ingreso para tener servicio en casa y computador -- Se evidenció igualmente que en la ciudad no hay presencia de brecha de género contrario a lo encontrado en la literatura

DETERMINANTS OF THE ADOPTION OF INTEGRATED SOIL FERTILITY MANAGEMENT TECHNOLOGIES IN MBALE DIVISION, KENYA

The agro-climatic conditions in western Kenya present the region as a food surplus area yet people are still reliant on food imports, with the region registering high poverty levels. Depletion of soil fertility and the resulting decline in agricultural productivity in Mbale division has led to many attempts to develop and popularize Integrated Soil Fertility Management (ISFM) technologies that could restore soil fertility. These technologies bridge the gap between high external inputs and extreme forms of traditional low external input agriculture. Some of the ISFM components used by farmers are organic and inorganic inputs and improved seeds. However, the adoption of these technologies is low. The study aimed to examine the factors that influence the adoption of ISFM technologies by smallholder farmers in Mbale division, Kenya. The study was conducted in 9 sub-locations in Mbale division. Purposive sampling was used in selecting the 80 farmers to get the data based on a farm-household survey. Self-administered questionnaires were used to collect data on the determinants of the adoption of ISFM technologies from the sampled farmers in the study area. The study sought to answer the research question: What factors influence the uptake of ISFM technologies by farmers in Mbale division? The hypothesis tested was that the adoption of ISFM technologies is not influenced by age, education, extension services, labour, off-farm income and farm size. Data was analyzed using descriptive statistics. Cross tabulation was used for examining the relationship between categorical (nominal or ordinal) variables, and the bivariate correlations procedure was used to compute the pair wise associations between scale or ordinal variables. Probit regression was used to predict the socio-economic factors influencing the adoption of ISFM technologies among smallholder farmers. Results of the study indicated that education of household head, membership in social groups, age of the household head, off-farm income and farm size were the variables that significantly influenced the adoption of ISFM technologies. The findings show that there is need for a more pro-poor focused approach to achieve sustainable soil fertility management among smallholder farmers. The findings will help farmers, extension officers, researchers and donors in identifying region-specific entry points that can help in developing innovative ISFM technologies.