991 resultados para predictor-corrector methods


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Background: Adrenocortical tumors are heterogeneous neoplasms with incompletely understood pathogenesis. IGF-II overexpression has been consistently demonstrated in adult adrenocortical carcinomas. Objectives: The objective of the study was to analyze expression of IGF-II and its receptor (IGF-IR) in pediatric and adult adrenocortical tumors and the effects of a selective IGF-IR kinase inhibitor (NVP-AEW541) on adrenocortical tumor cells. Patients: Fifty-seven adrenocortical tumors (37 adenomas and 20 carcinomas) from 23 children and 34 adults were studied. Methods: Gene expression was determined by quantitative real-time PCR. Cell proliferation and apoptosis were analyzed in NCI H295 cells and a new cell line established from a pediatric adrenocortical adenoma. Results: IGF-II transcripts were overexpressed in both pediatric adrenocortical carcinomas and adenomas. Otherwise, IGF-II was mainly overexpressed in adult adrenocortical carcinomas (270.5 +/- 130.2 vs. 16.1 +/- 13.3; P = 0.0001). IGF-IR expression was significantly higher in pediatric adrenocortical carcinomas than adenomas (9.1 +/- 3.1 vs. 2.6 +/- 0.3; P = 0.0001), whereas its expression was similar in adult adrenocortical carcinomas and adenomas. IGF-IR expression was a predictor of metastases in pediatric adrenocortical tumors in univariate analysis (hazard ratio 1.84; 95% confidence interval 1.28 -2.66; P = 0.01). Furthermore, NVP-AEW541 blocked cell proliferation in a dose-and time-dependent manner in both cell lines through a significant increase of apoptosis. Conclusion: IGF-IR overexpression was a biomarker of pediatric adrenocortical carcinomas. Additionally, a selective IGF-IR kinase inhibitor had antitumor effects in adult and pediatric adrenocortical tumor cell lines, suggesting that IGF-IR inhibitors represent a promising therapy for human adrenocortical carcinoma.

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Background and objectives Fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF-23) has emerged as a new factor in mineral metabolism in chronic kidney disease (CKD). An important regulator of phosphorus homeostasis, FGF-23 has been shown to independently predict CKD progression in nondiabetic renal disease. We analyzed the relation between FGF-23 and renal outcome in diabetic nephropathy (DN). Design, setting, participants, & measurements DN patients participating in a clinical trial (enalapril+placebo versus enalapril+losartan) had baseline data collected and were followed until June 2009 or until the primary outcome was reached. Four patients were lost to follow-up. The composite primary outcome was defined as death, doubling of serum creatinine, and/or dialysis need. Results At baseline, serum FGF-23 showed a significant association with serum creatinine, intact parathyroid hormone, proteirturia, urinary fractional excretion of phosphate, male sex, and race. Interestingly, FGF-23 was not related to calcium, phosphorus, 25OH-vitamin D, or 24-hour urinary phosphorus. Mean follow-up time was 30.7 +/- 10 months. Cox regression showed that FGF-23 was an independent predictor of the primary outcome, even after adjustment for creatinine clearance and intact parathyroid hormone (10 pg/ml FGF-23 increase = hazard ratio, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.16, P = 0.02). Finally, Kaplan-Meier analysis showed a significantly higher risk of the primary outcome in patients with FGF-23 values of >70 pg/ml. Conclusions FGF-23 is a significant independent predictor of renal outcome in patients with macroalbuminuric DN. Further studies should clarify whether this relation is causal and whether FGF-23 should be a new therapeutic target for CKD prevention. Clin J Am Soc Nephrol 6: 241-247, 2011. doi: 10.2215/CJN.04250510

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Objective. To evaluate the beneficial effect of antimalarial treatment on lupus survival in a large, multiethnic, international longitudinal inception cohort. Methods. Socioeconomic and demographic characteristics, clinical manifestations, classification criteria, laboratory findings, and treatment variables were examined in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) from the Grupo Latino Americano de Estudio del Lupus Eritematoso (GLADEL) cohort. The diagnosis of SLE, according to the American College of Rheumatology criteria, was assessed within 2 years of cohort entry. Cause of death was classified as active disease, infection, cardiovascular complications, thrombosis, malignancy, or other cause. Patients were subdivided by antimalarial use, grouped according to those who had received antimalarial drugs for at least 6 consecutive months (user) and those who had received antimalarial drugs for <6 consecutive months or who had never received antimalarial drugs (nonuser). Results. Of the 1,480 patients included in the GLADEL cohort, 1,141 (77%) were considered antimalarial users, with a mean duration of drug exposure of 48.5 months (range 6-98 months). Death occurred in 89 patients (6.0%). A lower mortality rate was observed in antimalarial users compared with nonusers (4.4% versus 11.5%; P < 0.001). Seventy patients (6.1%) had received antimalarial drugs for 6-11 months, 146 (12.8%) for 1-2 years, and 925 (81.1%) for >2 years. Mortality rates among users by duration of antimalarial treatment (per 1,000 person-months of followup) were 3.85 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.41-8.37), 2.7 (95% CI 1.41-4.76), and 0.54 (95% CI 0.37-0.77), respectively, while for nonusers, the mortality rate was 3.07 (95% CI 2.18-4.20) (P for trend < 0.001). After adjustment for potential confounders in a Cox regression model, antimalarial use was associated with a 38% reduction in the mortality rate (hazard ratio 0.62, 95% CI 0.39-0.99). Conclusion. Antimalarial drugs were shown to have a protective effect, possibly in a time-dependent manner, on SLE survival. These results suggest that the use of antimalarial treatment should be recommended for patients with lupus.

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Background. The incidence of unexplained sudden death (SD) and the factors involved in its occurrence in patients with chronic kidney disease are not well known. Methods. We investigated the incidence and the role of co-morbidities in unexplained SD in 1139 haemodialysis patients on the renal transplant waiting list. Results. Forty-four patients died from SD of undetermined causes (20% of all deaths; 3.9 deaths/1000 patients per year), while 178 died from other causes and 917 survived. SD patients were older and likely to have diabetes, hypertension, past/present cardiovascular disease, higher left ventricular mass index, and lower ejection fraction. Multivariate analysis showed that cardiovascular disease of any type was the only independent predictor of SD (P = 0.0001, HR = 2.13, 95% CI 1.46-3.22). Alterations closely associated with ischaemic heart disease like angina, previous myocardial infarction and altered myocardial scan were not independent predictors of SD. The incidence of unexplained SD in these haemodialysis patients is high and probably a consequence of pre-existing cardiovascular disease. Conclusions. Factors influencing SD in dialysis patients are not substantially different from factors in the general population. The role played by ischaemic heart disease in this context needs further evaluation.

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Objectives: To evaluate clinical and echocardiographic variables that could be used to predict outcomes in patients with asymptomatic severe aortic valve stenosis. Management of asymptomatic severe aortic stenosis is controversial. Because prophylactic surgery may be protective, independent predictors of events that could justify early surgery have been sought. Methods: Outpatients (n= 133; mean [+/- SD] age, 66.2 +/- 13.6 years) with isolated severe asymptomatic aortic stenosis but normal left ventricular function and no previous myocardial infarction were followed up prospectively at a tertiary care hospital. Interventions: We use a ""wait-for-events"" strategy. Clinical and echocardiographic variables were analyzed. Results: Nineteen patients developed angina; 40, dyspnea; 5, syncope; and 7, sudden death during a mean follow-up period of 3.30 +/- 1.87 years. Event-free survival was 90.2 +/- 2.6% at 1 year, 73.4 +/-.9% at 2 years, 70.7 +/- 4.3% at 3 years, 57.8 +/- 4.7% at 4 years, 40.3 +/- 5.0% at 5 years, and 33.3 +/- 5.2% at 6 years. The mean follow-up period until sudden death (1.32 +/- 1.11 years) was shorter than that for dyspnea (2.44 +/- 1.84 years), syncope (2.87 +/- 1.26 years) and angina (3.03 +/- 1.68 years). Cox regression analysis disclosed only reduced but within normal limits ejection fraction as independent predictor of total events. Conclusions: Management on ""wait-for-events"" strategy is generally safe. Progressive left ventricular ejection fraction reduction even within normal limits identified patients at high risk for events in whom valve replacement surgery should be considered. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Left ventricular hypertrophy is an important predictor of cardiovascular risk and sudden death. This study explored the ability of four obesity indexes (body mass index, waist circumference, waist-hip ratio and waist-stature ratio) to identify left ventricular hypertrophy. A sample of the general population (n=682; 43.5% men) was surveyed to assess cardiovascular risk factors. Biochemical, anthropometric and blood pressure values were obtained in a clinic visit according to standard methods. Left ventricular mass was obtained from transthoracic echocardiogram. Left ventricular hypertrophy was defined using population-specific cutoff values for left ventricular mass indexed to height(2.7). The waist-stature ratio showed the strongest positive association with left ventricular mass. This correlation was stronger in women, even after controlling for age and systolic blood pressure. By multivariate analysis, the main predictors of left ventricular hypertrophy were waist-stature ratio (23%), systolic blood pressure (9%) and age (2%) in men, and waist-stature ratio (40%), age (6%) and systolic blood pressure (2%) in women. Receiver-operating characteristic curves showed the optimal cutoff values of the different anthropometric indexes associated with left ventricular hypertrophy. The waist-stature ratio was a significantly better predictor than the other indexes (except for the waist-hip ratio), independent of gender. It is noteworthy that a waist-stature ratio cutoff of 0.56 showed the highest combined sensitivity and specificity to detect left ventricular hypertrophy. Abdominal obesity identified by waist-stature ratio instead of overall obesity identified by body mass index is the simplest and best obesity index for assessing the risk of left ventricular hypertrophy, is a better predictor in women and has an optimal cutoff ratio of 0.56. Hypertension Research (2010) 33, 83-87; doi: 10.1038/hr.2009.188; published online 13 November 2009

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Objective Cardiovascular risk factors were surveyed in two Indian populations (Guarani, n=60; Tupinikin, n=496) and in a non-Indian group (n=114) living in the same reserve in southeast Brazilian coast. The relationship between an age-dependent blood pressure (BP) increase with salt consumption was also investigated. Methods Overnight (12 h) urine was collected to evaluate Na excretion. Fasting glucose and lipids, anthropometry, BP, ECG and carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (PWV) were measured in a clinic visit. Participation (318 men/352 women, age 20-94 years; mean=37.6 +/- 14.9 years) comprised 80% of the eligible population. Results The prevalence of hypertension, diabetes and high cholesterol was similar in Tupinikins and in non-Indians and higher than in Guaranis. The prevalence of smoking and obesity was higher in the latter group. Hypertension and diabetes were detected in only one individual of the Guarani group. Mean BP adjusted to age and BMI was significantly lower (P<0.01) in Guaranis (82.8 +/- 1.6 mmHg) than in Tupinikins (92.3 +/- 0.5 mmHg) and non-Indians (91.6 +/- 1.1 mmHg). Urinary Na excretion (mEq/12h), however, was similar in the three groups (Guarani=94 +/- 40; Tupinikin=105 +/- 56; non-Indian=109 +/- 55; P>0.05). PWV (m/s) was lower (P<0.01) in Guarani (7.5 +/- 1.4) than in Tupinikins (8.8 +/- 2.2) and non-Indians (8.4 +/- 2.0). Multiple regression analysis showed that age and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) were independent predictors of SBP and DBP (r(2)=0.44) in Tupinikins, whereas the WHR was the unique independent predictor of BP variability in Guaranis (r(2)=0.22). Conclusion Lower BP levels in Guaranis cannot be explained by low salt intake observed in other primitive populations. J Hypertens 27:1753-1760 (C) 2009 Wolters Kluwer Health vertical bar Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

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Background Left atrial volume indexed (LAVI) has been reported as a predictor of cardiovascular events. We sought to determine the prognostic value of LAVI for predicting the outcome of patients who underwent dobutamine stress echocardiography (DSE) for known or suspected coronary artery disease (CAD). Methods From January 2000 to July 2005, we studied 981 patients who underwent DSE and off-line measurements of LAVI. The value of DSE over clinical and LAVI data was examined using a stepwise log-rank test. Results During a median follow-up of 24 months, 56 (6%) events occurred. By univariate analysis, predictors of events were male sex, diabetes mellitus, previous myocardial infarction, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), left atrial diameter indexed, LAVI, and abnormal DSE. By multivariate analysis, independent predictors were LVEF (relative risk [RR] = 0.98, 95% CI 0.95-1.00), LAVI (RR = 1.04, 95% CI 1.02-1.05), and abnormal DSE (RR = 2.70, 95% CI 1.28-5.69). In an incremental multivariate model, LAVI was additional to clinical data for predicting events (chi(2) 36.8, P < .001). The addition of DSE to clinical and LAVI yielded incremental information (chi(2) 55.3, P < .001). The 3-year event-free survival in patients with normal DSE and LAVI <= 33 mL/m(2) was 96%; with abnormal DSE and LAVI <= 33 mL/m(2), 91%; with normal DSE and LAVI >34 mL/m(2), 83%; and with abnormal DSE and LAVI >34 mL/m(2) 51%. Conclusion Left atrial volume indexed provides independent prognostic information in patients who underwent DSE for known or suspected CAD. Among patients with normal DSE, those with larger LAVI had worse outcome, and among patients with abnormal DSE, LAVI was still predictive. (Am Heart J 2008; 156:1110-6.)

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Here, we examine morphological changes in cortical thickness of patients with Alzheimer`s disease (AD) using image analysis algorithms for brain structure segmentation and study automatic classification of AD patients using cortical and volumetric data. Cortical thickness of AD patients (n = 14) was measured using MRI cortical surface-based analysis and compared with healthy subjects (n = 20). Data was analyzed using an automated algorithm for tissue segmentation and classification. A Support Vector Machine (SVM) was applied over the volumetric measurements of subcortical and cortical structures to separate AD patients from controls. The group analysis showed cortical thickness reduction in the superior temporal lobe, parahippocampal gyrus, and enthorhinal cortex in both hemispheres. We also found cortical thinning in the isthmus of cingulate gyrus and middle temporal gyrus at the right hemisphere, as well as a reduction of the cortical mantle in areas previously shown to be associated with AD. We also confirmed that automatic classification algorithms (SVM) could be helpful to distinguish AD patients from healthy controls. Moreover, the same areas implicated in the pathogenesis of AD were the main parameters driving the classification algorithm. While the patient sample used in this study was relatively small, we expect that using a database of regional volumes derived from MRI scans of a large number of subjects will increase the SVM power of AD patient identification.

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Fogo selvagem (FS) is mediated by pathogenic, predominantly IgG4, anti-desmoglein 1 (Dsg1) autoantibodies and is endemic in Limao Verde, Brazil. IgG and IgG subclass autoantibodies were tested in a sample of 214 FS patients and 261 healthy controls by Dsg1 ELISA. For model selection, the sample was randomly divided into training (50%), validation (25%), and test (25%) sets. Using the training and validation sets, IgG4 was chosen as the best predictor of FS, with index values above 6.43 classified as FS. Using the test set, IgG4 has sensitivity of 92% (95% confidence interval (95% CI): 82-95%), specificity of 97% (95% CI: 89-100%), and area under the curve of 0.97 ( 95% CI: 0.94-1.00). The IgG4 positive predictive value (PPV) in Limao Verde (3% FS prevalence) was 49%. The sensitivity, specificity, and PPV of IgG anti-Dsg1 were 87, 91, and 23%, respectively. The IgG4-based classifier was validated by testing 11 FS patients before and after clinical disease and 60 Japanese pemphigus foliaceus patients. It classified 21 of 96 normal individuals from a Limao Verde cohort as having FS serology. On the basis of its PPV, half of the 21 individuals may currently have preclinical FS and could develop clinical disease in the future. Identifying individuals during preclinical FS will enhance our ability to identify the etiological agent(s) triggering FS.

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OBJECTIVES: Local excision is currently being considered as an alternative strategy for ypT0-2 rectal cancer. However, patient selection is crucial to rule out nodal disease and is performed by radiologic studies that consider size as a surrogate marker for positive nodes. The purpose of this study was to determine the difference in size between metastatic and nonmetastatic nodes and the critical lymph node size after neoadjuvant chemoradiation therapy. METHODS: The 201 lymph nodes available from 31 patients with ypT0-2 rectal cancer were reviewed and measured. Lymph nodes were compared according to the presence of metastases and size. RESULTS: There was a mean of 6.5 lymph nodes per patient and 12 positive nodes of the 201 recovered (6%). Ninety-five percent of all lymph nodes were <5 mm, whereas 50% of positive lymph nodes were <3 mm. Metastatic lymph nodes were significantly greater in size (5.0 vs. 2.5mm; P = 0.02). Lymph nodes >4.5 mm had a greater risk of harboring metastases (P = 0.009). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with ypT0-2 rectal cancer following neoadjuvant chemoradiation have very small perirectal nodes. Individual metastatic lymph nodes are significantly larger. However, a significant number of lymph nodes after neoadjuvant chemoradiation (negative and positive) are <3 mm. Individual lymph node size is not a good predictor of nodal metastases and may lead to inaccurate radiologic staging.

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Paracoccidioidomycosis is endemic in Latin America, and ca. 80% of all cases occur in Brazil. Little is known about antibody avidity or the evolution of such avidity in the posttherapeutic period for the different clinical presentations of the disease. In the present study, we evaluated 53 patients with paracoccidioidomycosis and calculated the avidity index. Medium-and high-avidity antibodies were found in 79.5% of patients with chronic presentation (n = 39). Among patients with the acute form (n = 14), 57.1% of the antibodies presented low avidity. In the posttherapeutic period, there was a significant increase in antibody avidity in patients presenting with the chronic multifocal form. In our preliminary study, which needs to be confirmed using a larger number of samples, the optimized method for studying antibody avidity detected differences among the clinical presentations of the mycosis and indicated the value of the avidity index as a marker of posttherapeutic evolution of patients with a multifocal chronic form of the disease.

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Objective: To determine intraocular pressure (IOP)-dependent and IOP-independent variables associated with visual field (VF) progression in treated glaucoma. Design: Retrospective cohort of the Glaucoma Progression Study. Methods: Consecutive, treated glaucoma patients with repeatable VF loss who had 8 or more VF examinations of either eye, using the Swedish Interactive Threshold Algorithm (24-2 SITA-Standard, Humphrey Field Analyzer II; Carl Zeiss Meditec, Inc, Dublin, California), during the period between January 1999 and September 2009 were included. Visual field progression was evaluated using automated pointwise linear regression. Evaluated data included age, sex, race, central corneal thickness, baseline VF mean deviation, mean follow-up IOP, peak IOP, IOP fluctuation, a detected disc hemorrhage, and presence of beta-zone parapapillary atrophy. Results: We selected 587 eyes of 587 patients (mean [SD] age, 64.9 [13.0] years). The mean (SD) number of VFs was 11.1 (3.0), spanning a mean (SD) of 6.4 (1.7) years. In the univariable model, older age (odds ratio [OR], 1.19 per decade; P = .01), baseline diagnosis of exfoliation syndrome (OR, 1.79; P = .01), decreased central corneal thickness (OR, 1.38 per 40 mu m thinner; P < .01), a detected disc hemorrhage (OR, 2.31; P < .01), presence of beta-zone parapapillary atrophy (OR, 2.17; P < .01), and all IOP parameters (mean follow-up, peak, and fluctuation; P < .01) were associated with increased risk of VF progression. In the multivariable model, peak IOP (OR, 1.13; P < .01), thinner central corneal thickness (OR, 1.45 per 40 mu m thinner; P < .01), a detected disc hemorrhage (OR, 2.59; P < .01), and presence of beta-zone parapapillary atrophy (OR, 2.38; P < .01) were associated with VF progression. Conclusions: IOP-dependent and IOP-independent risk factors affect disease progression in treated glaucoma. Peak IOP is a better predictor of progression than is IOP mean or fluctuation.

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Aim: To compare cervical length (CL) at 18-21 and 22-25 weeks` gestation in twin pregnancies in prediction of spontaneous preterm delivery and to examine cervical shortening. Methods: Retrospective cohort study of CL measured at 18-21 and 22-25 weeks` gestation in twin pregnancies. Results: Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve revealed area of 0.64 (95% CI 0.53-0.75) and 0.80 (95% CI 0.72-0.88) for measurements at 18-21 and 22-25 weeks, respectively (P <= 0.001). Sensitivities of 33.3% and 23% and negative predicting value (NPV) of 97.3% and 86.8% for delivery at <28 and <34 weeks gestation were reached for measurements at 18-21 weeks. Sensitivities of 71.4% and 38.2% and NPV of 99.1% and 91.4% for delivery at <28 and <34 weeks` gestation were reached for measurements at 22-25 weeks. Cervical length shortening analysis showed an area under ROC curve of 0.81 (95% CI 0.73-0.89) and best cut-off was at >= 2 mm/week. Sensitivities of 80% and 60.8% and NPV of 98.9% and 90.6% for delivery at <28 and <34 weeks gestation were reached. Conclusions: In twin gestations, assessment of CL at 22-25 weeks is better than assessment at 18-21 weeks to predict preterm delivery before 34 weeks. Cervical shortening at a rate of >= 2 mm/weeks between 18 and 25 weeks gestation was a good predictor of spontaneous preterm birth in this high-risk population.

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Background: People with less education in Europe, Asia, and the United States are at higher risk of mortality associated with daily and longer-term air pollution exposure. We examined whether educational level modified associations between mortality and ambient particulate pollution (PM(10)) in Latin America, using several timescales. Methods: The study population included people who died during 1998-2002 in Mexico City, Mexico; Santiago, Chile; and Sao Paulo, Brazil. We fit city-specific robust Poisson regressions to daily deaths for nonexternal-cause mortality, and then stratified by age, sex, and educational attainment among adults older than age 21 years (none, some primary, some secondary, and high school degree or more). Predictor variables included a natural spline for temporal trend, linear PM(10) and apparent temperature at matching lags, and day-of-week indicators. We evaluated PM(10) for lags 0 and I day, and fit an unconstrained distributed lag model for cumulative 6-day effects. Results: The effects of a 10-mu g/m(3) increment in lag 1 PM(10) on all nonextemal-cause adult mortality were for Mexico City 0.39% (95% confidence interval = 0.131/-0.65%); Sao Paulo 1.04% (0.71%-1.38%); and for Santiago 0.61% (0.40%-0.83%. We found cumulative 6-day effects for adult mortality in Santiago (0.86% [0.48%-1.23%]) and Sao Paulo (1.38% [0.85%-1.91%]), but no consistent gradients by educational status. Conclusions: PM(10) had important short- and intermediate-term effects on mortality in these Latin American cities, but associations did not differ consistently by educational level.