Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution and production of marine fishes: accounting for trophic interactions in a dynamic bioclimate envelope model

Climate change has already altered the distribution of marine fishes. Future predictions of fish distributions and catches based on bioclimate envelope models are available, but to date they have not considered interspecific interactions. We address this by combining the species-based Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model (DBEM) with a size-based trophic model. The new approach provides spatially and temporally resolved predictions of changes in species' size, abundance and catch potential that account for the effects of ecological interactions. Predicted latitudinal shifts are, on average, reduced by 20% when species interactions are incorporated, compared to DBEM predictions, with pelagic species showing the greatest reductions. Goodness-of-fit of biomass data from fish stock assessments in the North Atlantic between 1991 and 2003 is improved slightly by including species interactions. The differences between predictions from the two models may be relatively modest because, at the North Atlantic basin scale, (i) predators and competitors may respond to climate change together; (ii) existing parameterization of the DBEM might implicitly incorporate trophic interactions; and/or (iii) trophic interactions might not be the main driver of responses to climate. Future analyses using ecologically explicit models and data will improve understanding of the effects of inter-specific interactions on responses to climate change, and better inform managers about plausible ecological and fishery consequences of a changing environment.

First report of "Cotoneaster pannosus" Franch. ("Rosaceae") in Tarragona Province, and updated distribution area in Spain

Cotoneaster pannosus (Rosaceae), an ornamental shrub native to China, is reported for the first time in Tarragona Province (Catalonia, Spain). Data on demography and accompanying species for the new locality are provided, in addition to a chrorological update at nation level.

High dispersal potential has maintained long-term population stability in the North Atlantic copepod Calanus finmarchicus

The cool-water copepod Calanus finmarchicus is a key species in North Atlantic marine ecosystems since it represents an important food resource for the developmental stages of several fish of major economic value. Over the last 40 years, however, data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey have highlighted a 70 per cent reduction in C. finmarchicus biomass, coupled with a gradual northward shift in the species's distribution, which have both been linked with climate change. To determine the potential for C. finmarchicus to track changes in habitat availability and maintain stable effective population sizes, we have assessed levels of gene flow and dispersal in current populations, as well as using a coalescent approach together with palaeodistribution modelling to elucidate the historical population demography of the species over previous changes in Earth's climate. Our findings indicate high levels of dispersal and a constant effective population size over the period 359 000–566 000 BP and suggest that C. finmarchicus possesses the capacity to track changes in available habitat, a feature that may be of crucial importance to the species's ability to cope with the current period of global climate change.

Prey landscapes help identify potential foraging habitats for leatherback turtles in the NE Atlantic

Identifying key marine megavertebrate habitats has become ever more important as concern increases regarding global fisheries bycatch and accelerated climate change. This will be aided by a greater understanding of the patterns and processes determining the spatiotemporal distribution of species of conservation concern. We identify probable foraging grounds for leatherback turtles in the NE Atlantic using monthly landscapes of gelatinous organism distribution constructed from Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey data. Using sightings data (n = 2013 records, 1954 to 2003) from 9 countries (UK, Ireland, France, Belgium, The Netherlands, Denmark, Germany, Norway and Sweden), we show sea surface temperatures of approximately 10 to 12 degree C most likely indicate the lower thermal threshold for accessible habitats during seasonal foraging migrations to high latitudes. Integrating maps of gelatinous plankton as a possible indicator of prey distribution with thermal tolerance parameters demonstrates the dynamic (spatial and temporal) nature of NE Atlantic foraging habitats. We highlight the importance of body size- related thermal constraints in structuring leatherback foraging populations and demonstrate a latitudinal gradient in body size (Bergmann's rule) where smaller animals are excluded from higher latitude foraging areas. We highlight the marine area of the European continental shelf edge as being both thermally accessible and prey rich, and therefore potentially supporting appreciable densities of foraging leatherbacks, with some suitable areas not yet extensively surveyed.

Vulnerability of coastal ecosystems to changes in harmful algal bloom distribution in response to climate change: projections based on model analysis

Harmful algal blooms (HABs), those proliferations of algae that can cause fish kills, contaminate seafood with toxins, form unsightly scums, or detrimentally alter ecosystem function have been increasing in frequency, magnitude, and duration worldwide. Here, using a global modeling approach, we show, for three regions of the globe, the potential effects of nutrient loading and climate change for two HAB genera, pelagic Prorocentrum and Karenia, each with differing physiological characteristics for growth. The projections (end of century, 2090-2100) are based on climate change resulting from the A1B scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Institut Pierre Simon Laplace Climate Model (IPCC, IPSL-CM4), applied in a coupled oceanographic-biogeochemical model, combined with a suite of assumed physiological 'rules' for genera-specific bloom development. Based on these models, an expansion in area and/or number of months annually conducive to development of these HABs along the NW European Shelf-Baltic Sea system and NE Asia was projected for both HAB genera, but no expansion (Prorocentrum spp.), or actual contraction in area and months conducive for blooms (Karenia spp.), was projected in the SE Asian domain. The implications of these projections, especially for Northern Europe, are shifts in vulnerability of coastal systems to HAB events, increased regional HAB impacts to aquaculture, increased risks to human health and ecosystems, and economic consequences of these events due to losses to fisheries and ecosystem services.

Assessing the potential of autonomous submarine gliders for ecosystem monitoring across multiple trophic levels (plankton to cetaceans) in shallow shelf seas

A combination of scientific, economic, technological and policy drivers is behind a recent upsurge in the use of marine autonomous systems (and accompanying miniaturized sensors) for environmental mapping and monitoring. Increased spatial–temporal resolution and coverage of data, at reduced cost, is particularly vital for effective spatial management of highly dynamic and heterogeneous shelf environments. This proof-of-concept study involves integration of a novel combination of sensors onto buoyancy-driven submarine gliders, in order to assess their suitability for ecosystem monitoring in shelf waters at a variety of trophic levels. Two shallow-water Slocum gliders were equipped with CTD and fluorometer to measure physical properties and chlorophyll, respectively. One glider was also equipped with a single-frequency echosounder to collect information on zooplankton and fish distribution. The other glider carried a Passive Acoustic Monitoring system to detect and record cetacean vocalizations, and a passive sampler to detect chemical contaminants in the water column. The two gliders were deployed together off southwest UK in autumn 2013, and targeted a known tidal-mixing front west of the Isles of Scilly. The gliders’ mission took about 40 days, with each glider travelling distances of >1000 km and undertaking >2500 dives to depths of up to 100 m. Controlling glider flight and alignment of the two glider trajectories proved to be particularly challenging due to strong tidal flows. However, the gliders continued to collect data in poor weather when an accompanying research vessel was unable to operate. In addition, all glider sensors generated useful data, with particularly interesting initial results relating to subsurface chlorophyll maxima and numerous fish/cetacean detections within the water column. The broader implications of this study for marine ecosystem monitoring with submarine gliders are discussed.

Discovery of a SAR11 growth requirement for thiamin’s pyrimidine precursor and its distribution in the Sargasso Sea

Vitamin traffic, the production of organic growth factors by some microbial community members and their use by other taxa, is being scrutinized as a potential explanation for the variation and highly connected behavior observed in ocean plankton by community network analysis. Thiamin (vitamin B1), a cofactor in many essential biochemical reactions that modify carbon-carbon bonds of organic compounds, is distributed in complex patterns at subpicomolar concentrations in the marine surface layer (0-300 m). Sequenced genomes from organisms belonging to the abundant and ubiquitous SAR11 clade of marine chemoheterotrophic bacteria contain genes coding for a complete thiamin biosynthetic pathway, except for thiC, encoding the 4-amino-5-hydroxymethyl-2-methylpyrimidine (HMP) synthase, which is required for de novo synthesis of thiamin's pyrimidine moiety. Here we demonstrate that the SAR11 isolate 'Candidatus Pelagibacter ubique', strain HTCC1062, is auxotrophic for the thiamin precursor HMP, and cannot use exogenous thiamin for growth. In culture, strain HTCC1062 required 0.7 zeptomoles per cell (ca. 400 HMP molecules per cell). Measurements of dissolved HMP in the Sargasso Sea surface layer showed that HMP ranged from undetectable (detection limit: 2.4 pM) to 35.7 pM, with maximum concentrations coincident with the deep chlorophyll maximum. In culture, some marine cyanobacteria, microalgae and bacteria exuded HMP, and in the Western Sargasso Sea, HMP profiles changed between the morning and evening, suggesting a dynamic biological flux from producers to consumers.

Assessing the potential of autonomous submarine gliders for ecosystem monitoring across multiple trophic levels (plankton to cetaceans) in shallow shelf seas

A combination of scientific, economic, technological and policy drivers is behind a recent upsurge in the use of marine autonomous systems (and accompanying miniaturized sensors) for environmental mapping and monitoring. Increased spatial–temporal resolution and coverage of data, at reduced cost, is particularly vital for effective spatial management of highly dynamic and heterogeneous shelf environments. This proof-of-concept study involves integration of a novel combination of sensors onto buoyancy-driven submarine gliders, in order to assess their suitability for ecosystem monitoring in shelf waters at a variety of trophic levels. Two shallow-water Slocum gliders were equipped with CTD and fluorometer to measure physical properties and chlorophyll, respectively. One glider was also equipped with a single-frequency echosounder to collect information on zooplankton and fish distribution. The other glider carried a Passive Acoustic Monitoring system to detect and record cetacean vocalizations, and a passive sampler to detect chemical contaminants in the water column. The two gliders were deployed together off southwest UK in autumn 2013, and targeted a known tidal-mixing front west of the Isles of Scilly. The gliders’ mission took about 40 days, with each glider travelling distances of >1000 km and undertaking >2500 dives to depths of up to 100 m. Controlling glider flight and alignment of the two glider trajectories proved to be particularly challenging due to strong tidal flows. However, the gliders continued to collect data in poor weather when an accompanying research vessel was unable to operate. In addition, all glider sensors generated useful data, with particularly interesting initial results relating to subsurface chlorophyll maxima and numerous fish/cetacean detections within the water column. The broader implications of this study for marine ecosystem monitoring with submarine gliders are discussed.

Arp2p, a potential substrate for NatB acetyltransferase in fission yeast, is important in actin patch nucleation and motility in arp2-1 and arm1 ts mutants

The actin cytoskeleton is a dynamic and complex structure in fission yeast that plays a major function in many cell processes including cellular growth, septa formation, endocytosis and cellular division. Computational studies have shown that Arp2p, which forms part of the Arp2/3 complex, is a potential substrate of NatB acetyltransferase which has specificity for proteins possessing an N-terminal Met-Asp or Met-Glu sequence motif. In arm1- mutants the loss of function of Arm1p, an auxillary subunit required for NatB activity, results in a temperature sensitive phenotype characterized by multiple septa, failure of endocytosis, and the inability to form actin cables. A temperature sensitive mutant of Schizosaccharomyces pombe arp2 gene exhibits a similar phenotype as seen by the formation of improper septa, slow growth, and the delocalization of actin patches. Four expression vectors encoding the open reading frames of arp2 and cdc8 (tropomyosin) were constructed with a modification changing the second residue to a Histidine, believed to mimic the charge distribution of natural acetylation by NatB. Constructs tested in normal yeast strains remained viable and grew normally in the presence of Met-His Arp2p and tropomyosin. Analysis of their ability to suppress the mutant phenotypes of arp2-1 and arm1- mutants is an area of research to be explored in future studies.

Activation of Akt/PKB, increased phosphorylation of Akt substrates and loss and altered distribution of Akt and PTEN are features of Alzheimer's disease pathology

Studies suggest that activation of phosphoinositide 3-kinase-Akt may protect against neuronal cell death in Alzheimer's disease (AD). Here, however, we provide evidence of increased Akt activation, and hyperphosphorylation of critical Akt substrates in AD brain, which link to AD pathogenesis, suggesting that treatments aiming to activate the pathway in AD need to be considered carefully. A different distribution of Akt and phospho-Akt was detected in AD temporal cortex neurons compared with control neurons, with increased levels of active phosphorylated-Akt in particulate fractions, and significant decreases in Akt levels in AD cytosolic fractions, causing increased activation of Akt (phosphorylated-Akt/total Akt ratio) in AD. In concordance, significant increases in the levels of phosphorylation of total Akt substrates, including: GSK3ßSer9, tauSer214, mTORSer2448, and decreased levels of the Akt target, p27kip1, were found in AD temporal cortex compared with controls. A significant loss and altered distribution of the major negative regulator of Akt, PTEN (phosphatase and tensin homologue deleted on chromosome 10), was also detected in AD neurons. Loss of phosphorylated-Akt and PTEN-containing neurons were found in hippocampal CA1 at end stages of AD. Taken together, these results support a potential role for aberrant control of Akt and PTEN signalling in AD.

Sediment distribution, hydrolytic enzyme profiles and bacterial activities in the guts of Oneirophanta mutabilis, Psychropotes longicauda and Pseudostichopus - what do they tell us about digestive strategies of abyssal holothurians?

This paper describes inter-specific differences in the distribution of sediment in the gut compartments and in the enzyme and bacterial profiles along the gut of abyssal holothurian species — Oneirophanta mutabilis, Psychropotes longicauda and Pseudostichopus villosus sampled from a eutrophic site in the NE Atlantic at different times of the year. Proportions of sediments, relative to total gut contents, in the pharynx, oesophagus, anterior and posterior intestine differed significantly in all the inter-species comparisons, but not between inter-seasonal comparisons. Significant differences were also found between the relative proportions of sediments in both the rectum and cloaca of Psychropotes longicauda and Oneirophanta mutabilis. Nineteen enzymes were identified in either gut-tissue or gut-content samples of the holothurians studied. Concentrations of the enzymes in gut tissues and their contents were highly correlated. Greater concentrations of the enzymes were found in the gut tissues suggesting that they are the main source of the enzymes. The suites of enzymes recorded were broadly similar in each of the species sampled collected regardless of the time of the year, and they were similar to those described previously for shallow-water holothurians. Significant inter-specific differences in the gut tissue concentrations of some of the glycosidases suggest dietary differences. For example, Psychropotes longicauda and Pseudostichopus villosus contain higher levels of chitobiase than Oneirophanta mutabilis. There were no seasonal changes in bacterial activity profiles along the guts of O. mutabilis and Pseudostichopus villosus. In both these species bacterial activity and abundance declined between the pharynx/oesophagus and anterior intestine, but then increased along the gut and became greatest in the rectum/cloaca. Although the data sets were more limited for Psychropotes longicauda, bacterial activity increased from the anterior to the posterior intestine but then declined slightly to the rectum/cloaca. These changes in bacterial activity and densities probably reflect changes in the microbial environment along the guts of abyssal holothurians. Such changes suggest that there is potential for microbial breakdown of a broader range of substrates than could be otherwise be achieved by the holothurian itself. However, the present study found no evidence for sedimentary (microbial) sources of hydrolytic enzymes.

Commercial oyster stocks as a potential source of larvae in the regeneration of Ostrea edulis in Strangford Lough, Northern Ireland.

Ostrea edulis was extremely rare in the wild in Strangford Lough from the early 1900s until renewed spatfall was observed at a number of sites in the 1990s. A monitoring programme was undertaken to investigate the presence and distribution of planktonic oyster larvae at nine sites around the lough between June and September in 1997 and 1998 as a precursor to studies of spatfall patterns. Larval densities at sites in the northern basin of the lough were significantly higher than those in the southern basin where larvae were lacking or in low numbers. Densities and sizes of oyster larvae showed significant temporal variation suggesting pulsed larval release. Larval densities also showed significant spatial variation with higher densities at sites closer to commercial stocks pointing to these as the main source of oyster larvae. This hypothesis was supported during a larval flux study over a complete tidal cycle which indicated a 90% net tidal movement of O. edulis larvae from the entrance of the bay where commercial stocks were held to the main body of the lough. Thus the maintenance of dense commercial stocks of flat oysters may provide the key to the redevelopment of native oyster beds in Strangford Lough and elsewhere by providing an initial broodstock nucleus from which larvae can be exported.

Selective migration from deprived areas in Northern Ireland and the spatial distribution of inequalities: implications for monitoring health and inequalities in health

Much of the evidence suggesting that inequalities in health have been increasing over the last two decades has come from studies that compared the changes in relative health status of areas over time. Such studies ignore the movement of people between areas. This paper examines the population movement between small areas in Northern Ireland in the year prior to the 1991 census as well as the geographical distribution of migrants to Northern Ireland over the same period. It shows that deprived areas tended to become depopulated and that those who left these areas were the more affluent residents. While immigrants differed a little from the indigenous population, the overall effect of their distribution would be to maintain the geographical socio-economic status quo. The selective movement of people between areas would result in the distribution of health and ill-health becoming more polarized, i.e. produce a picture of widening inequalities between areas even though the distribution between individuals is unchanged. These processes suggest potential significant problems with the area-based approaches to monitoring health and inequalities in health.

Escape times for rigid Brownian rotators in a bistable potential from the time evolution of the Green function and the characteristic time of the probability evolution

The greatest relaxation time for an assembly of three- dimensional rigid rotators in an axially symmetric bistable potential is obtained exactly in terms of continued fractions as a sum of the zero frequency decay functions (averages of the Legendre polynomials) of the system. This is accomplished by studying the entire time evolution of the Green function (transition probability) by expanding the time dependent distribution as a Fourier series and proceeding to the zero frequency limit of the Laplace transform of that distribution. The procedure is entirely analogous to the calculation of the characteristic time of the probability evolution (the integral of the configuration space probability density function with respect to the position co-ordinate) for a particle undergoing translational diffusion in a potential; a concept originally used by Malakhov and Pankratov (Physica A 229 (1996) 109). This procedure allowed them to obtain exact solutions of the Kramers one-dimensional translational escape rate problem for piecewise parabolic potentials. The solution was accomplished by posing the problem in terms of the appropriate Sturm-Liouville equation which could be solved in terms of the parabolic cylinder functions. The method (as applied to rotational problems and posed in terms of recurrence relations for the decay functions, i.e., the Brinkman approach c.f. Blomberg, Physica A 86 (1977) 49, as opposed to the Sturm-Liouville one) demonstrates clearly that the greatest relaxation time unlike the integral relaxation time which is governed by a single decay function (albeit coupled to all the others in non-linear fashion via the underlying recurrence relation) is governed by a sum of decay functions. The method is easily generalized to multidimensional state spaces by matrix continued fraction methods allowing one to treat non-axially symmetric potentials, where the distribution function is governed by two state variables. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Angular distribution for the elastic scattering of electrons from Ar+(3s^2 3p^5 ^2P) above the first inelastic threshold

The measured angular differential cross section (DCS) for the elastic scattering of electrons from Ar+(3s2 3p5 2P) at the collision energy of 16 eV is presented. By solving the Hartree-Fock equations, we calculate the corresponding theoretical DCS including the coupling between the orbital angular momenta and spin of the incident electron and those of the target ion and also relaxation effects. Since the collision energy is above one inelastic threshold for the transition 3s2 3p5 2P–3s 3p6 2S, we consider the effects on the DCS of inelastic absorption processes and elastic resonances. The measurements deviate significantly from the Rutherford cross section over the full angular range observed, especially in the region of a deep minimum centered at approximately 75°. Our theory and an uncoupled, unrelaxed method using a local, spherically symmetric potential by Manson [Phys. Rev. 182, 97 (1969)] both reproduce the overall shape of the measured DCS, although the coupled Hartree-Fock approach describes the depth of the minimum more accurately. The minimum is shallower in the present theory owing to our lower average value for the d-wave non-Coulomb phase shift s2, which is due to the high sensitivity of s2 to the different scattering potentials used in the two models. The present measurements and calculations therefore show the importance of including coupling and relaxation effects when accurately modeling electron-ion collisions. The phase shifts obtained by fitting to the measurements are compared with the values of Manson and the present method.