Evaluation of two "integrated" polarimetric Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) algorithms at C-band

Two so-called “integrated” polarimetric rate estimation techniques, ZPHI (Testud et al., 2000) and ZZDR (Illingworth and Thompson, 2005), are evaluated using 12 episodes of the year 2005 observed by the French C-band operational Trappes radar, located near Paris. The term “integrated” means that the concentration parameter of the drop size distribution is assumed to be constant over some area and the algorithms retrieve it using the polarimetric variables in that area. The evaluation is carried out in ideal conditions (no partial beam blocking, no ground-clutter contamination, no bright band contamination, a posteriori calibration of the radar variables ZH and ZDR) using hourly rain gauges located at distances less than 60 km from the radar. Also included in the comparison, for the sake of benchmarking, is a conventional Z = 282R1.66 estimator, with and without attenuation correction and with and without adjustment by rain gauges as currently done operationally at Météo France. Under those ideal conditions, the two polarimetric algorithms, which rely solely on radar data, appear to perform as well if not better, pending on the measurements conditions (attenuation, rain rates, …), than the conventional algorithms, even when the latter take into account rain gauges through the adjustment scheme. ZZDR with attenuation correction is the best estimator for hourly rain gauge accumulations lower than 5 mm h−1 and ZPHI is the best one above that threshold. A perturbation analysis has been conducted to assess the sensitivity of the various estimators with respect to biases on ZH and ZDR, taking into account the typical accuracy and stability that can be reasonably achieved with modern operational radars these days (1 dB on ZH and 0.2 dB on ZDR). A +1 dB positive bias on ZH (radar too hot) results in a +14% overestimation of the rain rate with the conventional estimator used in this study (Z = 282R^1.66), a -19% underestimation with ZPHI and a +23% overestimation with ZZDR. Additionally, a +0.2 dB positive bias on ZDR results in a typical rain rate under- estimation of 15% by ZZDR.

Estimation of systematic error in an equatorial ocean model using data assimilation

Assimilation of temperature observations into an ocean model near the equator often results in a dynamically unbalanced state with unrealistic overturning circulations. The way in which these circulations arise from systematic errors in the model or its forcing is discussed. A scheme is proposed, based on the theory of state augmentation, which uses the departures of the model state from the observations to update slowly evolving bias fields. Results are summarized from an experiment applying this bias correction scheme to an ocean general circulation model. They show that the method produces more balanced analyses and a better fit to the temperature observations.

Robustness in partial pole placement

The robustness of state feedback solutions to the problem of partial pole placement obtained by a new projection procedure is examined. The projection procedure gives a reduced-order pole assignment problem. It is shown that the sensitivities of the assigned poles in the complete closed-loop system are bounded in terms of the sensitivities of the assigned reduced-order poles, and the sensitivities of the unaltered poles are bounded in terms of the sensitivities of the corresponding open-loop poles. If the assigned poles are well-separated from the unaltered poles, these bounds are expected to be tight. The projection procedure is described in [3], and techniques for finding robust (or insensitive) solutions to the reduced-order problem are given in [1], [2].

Wind gust estimation for Mid-European winter storms: towards a probabilistic view

Three wind gust estimation (WGE) methods implemented in the numerical weather prediction (NWP) model COSMO-CLM are evaluated with respect to their forecast quality using skill scores. Two methods estimate gusts locally from mean wind speed and the turbulence state of the atmosphere, while the third one considers the mixing-down of high momentum within the planetary boundary layer (WGE Brasseur). One hundred and fifty-eight windstorms from the last four decades are simulated and results are compared with gust observations at 37 stations in Germany. Skill scores reveal that the local WGE methods show an overall better behaviour, whilst WGE Brasseur performs less well except for mountain regions. The here introduced WGE turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) permits a probabilistic interpretation using statistical characteristics of gusts at observational sites for an assessment of uncertainty. The WGE TKE formulation has the advantage of a ‘native’ interpretation of wind gusts as result of local appearance of TKE. The inclusion of a probabilistic WGE TKE approach in NWP models has, thus, several advantages over other methods, as it has the potential for an estimation of uncertainties of gusts at observational sites.

Optimal estimation of sea surface temperature from split-window observations

Optimal estimation (OE) improves sea surface temperature (SST) estimated from satellite infrared imagery in the “split-window”, in comparison to SST retrieved using the usual multi-channel (MCSST) or non-linear (NLSST) estimators. This is demonstrated using three months of observations of the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on the first Meteorological Operational satellite (Metop-A), matched in time and space to drifter SSTs collected on the global telecommunications system. There are 32,175 matches. The prior for the OE is forecast atmospheric fields from the Météo-France global numerical weather prediction system (ARPEGE), the forward model is RTTOV8.7, and a reduced state vector comprising SST and total column water vapour (TCWV) is used. Operational NLSST coefficients give mean and standard deviation (SD) of the difference between satellite and drifter SSTs of 0.00 and 0.72 K. The “best possible” NLSST and MCSST coefficients, empirically regressed on the data themselves, give zero mean difference and SDs of 0.66 K and 0.73 K respectively. Significant contributions to the global SD arise from regional systematic errors (biases) of several tenths of kelvin in the NLSST. With no bias corrections to either prior fields or forward model, the SSTs retrieved by OE minus drifter SSTs have mean and SD of − 0.16 and 0.49 K respectively. The reduction in SD below the “best possible” regression results shows that OE deals with structural limitations of the NLSST and MCSST algorithms. Using simple empirical bias corrections to improve the OE, retrieved minus drifter SSTs are obtained with mean and SD of − 0.06 and 0.44 K respectively. Regional biases are greatly reduced, such that the absolute bias is less than 0.1 K in 61% of 10°-latitude by 30°-longitude cells. OE also allows a statistic of the agreement between modelled and measured brightness temperatures to be calculated. We show that this measure is more efficient than the current system of confidence levels at identifying reliable retrievals, and that the best 75% of satellite SSTs by this measure have negligible bias and retrieval error of order 0.25 K.

The partial oxidation of methane over Pd/Al2O3 catalyst nanoparticles studied in-situ by near ambient-pressure x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy

Near ambient-pressure X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (NAP-XPS) is used to study the chemical state of methane oxidation catalysts in-situ. Al2O3{supported Pd catalysts are prepared with different particle sizes ranging from 4 nm to 10 nm. These catalysts were exposed to conditions similar to those used in the partial oxidation of methane (POM) to syn-gas and simultaneously monitored by NAP-XPS and mass spectrometry. NAP-XPS data show changes in the oxidation state of the palladium as the temperature in- creases, from metallic Pd0 to PdO, and back to Pd0. Mass spectrometry shows an increase in CO production whilst the Pd is in the oxide phase, and the metal is reduced back under presence of newly formed H2. A particle size effect is observed, such that CH4 conversion starts at lower temperatures with larger sized particles from 6 nm to 10 nm. We find that all nanoparticles begin CH4 conversion at lower temperatures than polycrystalline Pd foil.

A systematic method of parameterisation estimation using data assimilation

In numerical weather prediction, parameterisations are used to simulate missing physics in the model. These can be due to a lack of scientific understanding or a lack of computing power available to address all the known physical processes. Parameterisations are sources of large uncertainty in a model as parameter values used in these parameterisations cannot be measured directly and hence are often not well known; and the parameterisations themselves are also approximations of the processes present in the true atmosphere. Whilst there are many efficient and effective methods for combined state/parameter estimation in data assimilation (DA), such as state augmentation, these are not effective at estimating the structure of parameterisations. A new method of parameterisation estimation is proposed that uses sequential DA methods to estimate errors in the numerical models at each space-time point for each model equation. These errors are then fitted to pre-determined functional forms of missing physics or parameterisations that are based upon prior information. We applied the method to a one-dimensional advection model with additive model error, and it is shown that the method can accurately estimate parameterisations, with consistent error estimates. Furthermore, it is shown how the method depends on the quality of the DA results. The results indicate that this new method is a powerful tool in systematic model improvement.

DETECTABILITY AND ERROR ESTIMATION IN ORBITAL FITS OF RESONANT EXTRASOLAR PLANETS

We estimate the conditions for detectability of two planets in a 2/1 mean-motion resonance from radial velocity data, as a function of their masses, number of observations and the signal-to-noise ratio. Even for a data set of the order of 100 observations and standard deviations of the order of a few meters per second, we find that Jovian-size resonant planets are difficult to detect if the masses of the planets differ by a factor larger than similar to 4. This is consistent with the present population of real exosystems in the 2/1 commensurability, most of which have resonant pairs with similar minimum masses, and could indicate that many other resonant systems exist, but are currently beyond the detectability limit. Furthermore, we analyze the error distribution in masses and orbital elements of orbital fits from synthetic data sets for resonant planets in the 2/1 commensurability. For various mass ratios and number of data points we find that the eccentricity of the outer planet is systematically overestimated, although the inner planet`s eccentricity suffers a much smaller effect. If the initial conditions correspond to small-amplitude oscillations around stable apsidal corotation resonances, the amplitudes estimated from the orbital fits are biased toward larger amplitudes, in accordance to results found in real resonant extrasolar systems.

Untangling associations between chironomid taxa in Neotropical streams using local and landscape filters

1. Analyses of species association have major implications for selecting indicators for freshwater biomonitoring and conservation, because they allow for the elimination of redundant information and focus on taxa that can be easily handled and identified. These analyses are particularly relevant in the debate about using speciose groups (such as the Chironomidae) as indicators in the tropics, because they require difficult and time-consuming analysis, and their responses to environmental gradients, including anthropogenic stressors, are poorly known. 2. Our objective was to show whether chironomid assemblages in Neotropical streams include clear associations of taxa and, if so, how well these associations could be explained by a set of models containing information from different spatial scales. For this, we formulated a priori models that allowed for the influence of local, landscape and spatial factors on chironomid taxon associations (CTA). These models represented biological hypotheses capable of explaining associations between chironomid taxa. For instance, CTA could be best explained by local variables (e.g. pH, conductivity and water temperature) or by processes acting at wider landscape scales (e.g. percentage of forest cover). 3. Biological data were taken from 61 streams in Southeastern Brazil, 47 of which were in well-preserved regions, and 14 of which drained areas severely affected by anthropogenic activities. We adopted a model selection procedure using Akaike`s information criterion to determine the most parsimonious models for explaining CTA. 4. Applying Kendall`s coefficient of concordance, seven genera (Tanytarsus/Caladomyia, Ablabesmyia, Parametriocnemus, Pentaneura, Nanocladius, Polypedilum and Rheotanytarsus) were identified as associated taxa. The best-supported model explained 42.6% of the total variance in the abundance of associated taxa. This model combined local and landscape environmental filters and spatial variables (which were derived from eigenfunction analysis). However, the model with local filters and spatial variables also had a good chance of being selected as the best model. 5. Standardised partial regression coefficients of local and landscape filters, including spatial variables, derived from model averaging allowed an estimation of which variables were best correlated with the abundance of associated taxa. In general, the abundance of the associated genera tended to be lower in streams characterised by a high percentage of forest cover (landscape scale), lower proportion of muddy substrata and high values of pH and conductivity (local scale). 6. Overall, our main result adds to the increasing number of studies that have indicated the importance of local and landscape variables, as well as the spatial relationships among sampling sites, for explaining aquatic insect community patterns in streams. Furthermore, our findings open new possibilities for the elimination of redundant data in the assessment of anthropogenic impacts on tropical streams.

Bayesian Estimation for Performance Measures of Two Diagnostic Tests in the Presence of Verification Bias

Sensitivity and specificity are measures that allow us to evaluate the performance of a diagnostic test. In practice, it is common to have situations where a proportion of selected individuals cannot have the real state of the disease verified, since the verification could be an invasive procedure, as occurs with biopsy. This happens, as a special case, in the diagnosis of prostate cancer, or in any other situation related to risks, that is, not practicable, nor ethical, or in situations with high cost. For this case, it is common to use diagnostic tests based only on the information of verified individuals. This procedure can lead to biased results or workup bias. In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian approach to estimate the sensitivity and the specificity for two diagnostic tests considering verified and unverified individuals, a result that generalizes the usual situation based on only one diagnostic test.

Investigation by Combined Solid-State NMR and SAXS Methods of the Morphology and Domain Size in Polystyrene-b-Polyethylene Oxide-b-Polystyrene Triblock Copolymers

The microphase structure of a series of polystyrene-b-polyethylene oxide-b-polystyrene (SEOS) triblock copolymers with different compositions and molecular weights has been studied by solid-state NMR, DSC, wide and small angle X-ray scattering (WAXS and SAXS). WAXS and DSC measurements were used to detect the presence of crystalline domains of polyethyleneoxide (PEO) blocks at room temperature as a function of the copolymer chemical composition. Furthermore, DSC experiments allowed the determination of the melting temperatures of the crystalline part of the PEO blocks. SAXS measurements, performed above and below the melting temperature of the PEO blocks, revealed the formation of periodic structures, but the absence or the weakness of high order reflections peaks did not allow a clear assessment of the morphological structure of the copolymers. This information was inferred by combining the results obtained by SAXS and (1)H NMR spin diffusion experiments, which also provided an estimation of the size of the dispersed phases of the nanostructured copolymers. (C) 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Polym Sci Part B: Polym Phys 48:55-64,2010

A study of the relaxation dynamics in a quadrupolar NMR system using Quantum State Tomography

This article reports a relaxation study in an oriented system containing spin 3/2 nuclei using quantum state tomography (QST). The use of QST allowed evaluating the time evolution of all density matrix elements starting from several initial states. Using an appropriated treatment based on the Redfield theory, the relaxation rate of each density matrix element was measured and the reduced spectral densities that describe the system relaxation were determined. All the experimental data could be well described assuming pure quadrupolar relaxation and reduced spectral densities corresponding to a superposition of slow and fast motions. The data were also analyzed in the context of Quantum Information Processing, where the coherence loss of each qubit of the system was determined using the partial trace operation. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Solid-state NMR characterization of a series of copolymers containing fluorene, phenylene and thiophene units

Fluorene and thiophene units are commonly used in polymeric materials for electro-optical applications. Due to differences in reactivity, the final composition of polymers containing these components often differs from that used in their preparation. This contribution describes the synthesis of PPV type terpolymers built by fluorene, phenylene and thiophene units and their quantification by CPMAS NMR. The similarity of the three aromatic co-monomers makes it difficult to separate the analytical responses that would allow quantification of each copolymer unit in the chain. In this sense, we show that the combination of dipolar dephased CPMAS with radiofrequency ramp and proper spectral treatment allows a good estimation and quantification of the copolymer constitution. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Expression, Purification, Bioactivity, and Partial Characterization of a Recombinant Human Bone Morphogenetic Protein-7 Produced in Human 293T Cells

Bone morphogenetic protein-7 (BMP-7) is a secreted multifunctional growth factor of the TGF-beta superfamily, which is predominantly known for its osteoinductive properties and emerging potential for treatment of kidney diseases. The mature 34-38 kDa disulfide-linked homodimer protein plays a key role in the differentiation of mesenchymal cells into bone and cartilage. In this study, the full-length sequence of hBMP-7 was amplified and, then, cloned, expressed, and purified from the conditioned medium of 293T cells stably transfected with a lentiviral vector. The mature protein dimer form was properly secreted and recognized by anti-BMP-7 antibodies, and the protein was shown to be glycosilated by treatment with exoglycosidase, followed by western blotting. Moreover, the activity of the purified protein was demonstrated both in vitro, by alkaline phosphatase activity in C2C12 cells, and in vivo by induction of ectopic bone formation in Balb/c Nude mice after 21 days, respectively. This recombinant protein platform may be very useful for expression of different human cytokines and other proteins for medical applications.

Brazilian international and inter-state trade flows: an exploratory analysis using the gravity model

Recent efforts toward a world with freer trade, like WTO/GATT or regional Preferential Trade Agreements(PTAs), were put in doubt after McCallum's(1995) finding of a large border effect between US and Canadian provinces. Since then, there has been a great amount of research on this topic employing the gravity equation. This dissertation has two goals. The first goal is to review comprehensively the recent literature about the gravity equation, including its usages, econometric specifications, and the efforts to provide it with microeconomic foundations. The second goal is the estimation of the Brazilian border effect (or 'home-bias trade puzzle') using inter-state and international trade flow data. It is used a pooled cross-section Tobit model. The lowest border effect estimated was 15, which implies that Brazilian states trade among themselves 15 times more than they trade with foreign countries. Further research using industry disaggregated data is needed to qualify the estimated border effect with respect to which part of that effect can be attributed to actual trade costs and which part is the outcome of the endogenous location problem of the firm.