Essays on the Economic Analysis of Tort Law

The analysis of tort law is one of the most influential and extensively developed applications of the economic approach in the study of law. Notwithstanding the exhaustive number of contributions on tort law and economics, several open questions remain that warrant further investigation. The general aim of this research project is to refine the traditional model of tort law in order to make it more realistic, updated with the recent technological progress and in line with the experimental results concerning prosocial behavior. This book is divided into six chapters: Chapters 1 and 6 provide an introduction and conclusions, respectively, while the remaining chapters are written in the form of separate yet related articles.

Cost-effectiveness of different strategies to monitor adults on antiretroviral treatment: a combined analysis of three mathematical models

Background: WHO's 2013 revisions to its Consolidated Guidelines on antiretroviral drugs recommend routine viral load monitoring, rather than clinical or immunological monitoring, as the preferred monitoring approach on the basis of clinical evidence. However, HIV programmes in resource-limited settings require guidance on the most cost-effective use of resources in view of other competing priorities such as expansion of antiretroviral therapy coverage. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of alternative patient monitoring strategies. Methods: We evaluated a range of monitoring strategies, including clinical, CD4 cell count, and viral load monitoring, alone and together, at different frequencies and with different criteria for switching to second-line therapies. We used three independently constructed and validated models simultaneously. We estimated costs on the basis of resource use projected in the models and associated unit costs; we quantified impact as disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted. We compared alternatives using incremental cost-effectiveness analysis. Findings: All models show that clinical monitoring delivers significant benefit compared with a hypothetical baseline scenario with no monitoring or switching. Regular CD4 cell count monitoring confers a benefit over clinical monitoring alone, at an incremental cost that makes it affordable in more settings than viral load monitoring, which is currently more expensive. Viral load monitoring without CD4 cell count every 6—12 months provides the greatest reductions in morbidity and mortality, but incurs a high cost per DALY averted, resulting in lost opportunities to generate health gains if implemented instead of increasing antiretroviral therapy coverage or expanding antiretroviral therapy eligibility. Interpretation: The priority for HIV programmes should be to expand antiretroviral therapy coverage, firstly at CD4 cell count lower than 350 cells per μL, and then at a CD4 cell count lower than 500 cells per μL, using lower-cost clinical or CD4 monitoring. At current costs, viral load monitoring should be considered only after high antiretroviral therapy coverage has been achieved. Point-of-care technologies and other factors reducing costs might make viral load monitoring more affordable in future. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, WHO.

Retrospective analysis of a nonforecasted rain-on-snow flood in the Alps – a matter of model limitations or unpredictable nature?

A rain-on-snow flood occurred in the Bernese Alps, Switzerland, on 10 October 2011, and caused significant damage. As the flood peak was unpredicted by the flood forecast system, questions were raised concerning the causes and the predictability of the event. Here, we aimed to reconstruct the anatomy of this rain-on-snow flood in the Lötschen Valley (160 km2) by analyzing meteorological data from the synoptic to the local scale and by reproducing the flood peak with the hydrological model WaSiM-ETH (Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model). This in order to gain process understanding and to evaluate the predictability. The atmospheric drivers of this rain-on-snow flood were (i) sustained snowfall followed by (ii) the passage of an atmospheric river bringing warm and moist air towards the Alps. As a result, intensive rainfall (average of 100 mm day-1) was accompanied by a temperature increase that shifted the 0° line from 1500 to 3200 m a.s.l. (meters above sea level) in 24 h with a maximum increase of 9 K in 9 h. The south-facing slope of the valley received significantly more precipitation than the north-facing slope, leading to flooding only in tributaries along the south-facing slope. We hypothesized that the reason for this very local rainfall distribution was a cavity circulation combined with a seeder-feeder-cloud system enhancing local rainfall and snowmelt along the south-facing slope. By applying and considerably recalibrating the standard hydrological model setup, we proved that both latent and sensible heat fluxes were needed to reconstruct the snow cover dynamic, and that locally high-precipitation sums (160 mm in 12 h) were required to produce the estimated flood peak. However, to reproduce the rapid runoff responses during the event, we conceptually represent likely lateral flow dynamics within the snow cover causing the model to react "oversensitively" to meltwater. Driving the optimized model with COSMO (Consortium for Small-scale Modeling)-2 forecast data, we still failed to simulate the flood because COSMO-2 forecast data underestimated both the local precipitation peak and the temperature increase. Thus we conclude that this rain-on-snow flood was, in general, predictable, but requires a special hydrological model setup and extensive and locally precise meteorological input data. Although, this data quality may not be achieved with forecast data, an additional model with a specific rain-on-snow configuration can provide useful information when rain-on-snow events are likely to occur.

The structural substrate of brain function: analysis of brain structural networks based on diffusion-weighted imaging

The brain is a complex neural network with a hierarchical organization and the mapping of its elements and connections is an important step towards the understanding of its function. Recent developments in diffusion-weighted imaging have provided the opportunity to reconstruct the whole-brain structural network in-vivo at a large scale level and to study the brain structural substrate in a framework that is close to the current understanding of brain function. However, methods to construct the connectome are still under development and they should be carefully evaluated. To this end, the first two studies included in my thesis aimed at improving the analytical tools specific to the methodology of brain structural networks. The first of these papers assessed the repeatability of the most common global and local network metrics used in literature to characterize the connectome, while in the second paper the validity of further metrics based on the concept of communicability was evaluated. Communicability is a broader measure of connectivity which accounts also for parallel and indirect connections. These additional paths may be important for reorganizational mechanisms in the presence of lesions as well as to enhance integration in the network. These studies showed good to excellent repeatability of global network metrics when the same methodological pipeline was applied, but more variability was detected when considering local network metrics or when using different thresholding strategies. In addition, communicability metrics have been found to add some insight into the integration properties of the network by detecting subsets of nodes that were highly interconnected or vulnerable to lesions. The other two studies used methods based on diffusion-weighted imaging to obtain knowledge concerning the relationship between functional and structural connectivity and about the etiology of schizophrenia. The third study integrated functional oscillations measured using electroencephalography (EEG) and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) as well as diffusion-weighted imaging data. The multimodal approach that was applied revealed a positive relationship between individual fluctuations of the EEG alpha-frequency and diffusion properties of specific connections of two resting-state networks. Finally, in the fourth study diffusion-weighted imaging was used to probe for a relationship between the underlying white matter tissue structure and season of birth in schizophrenia patients. The results are in line with the neurodevelopmental hypothesis of early pathological mechanisms as the origin of schizophrenia. The different analytical approaches selected in these studies also provide arguments for discussion of the current limitations in the analysis of brain structural networks. To sum up, the first studies presented in this thesis illustrated the potential of brain structural network analysis to provide useful information on features of brain functional segregation and integration using reliable network metrics. In the other two studies alternative approaches were presented. The common discussion of the four studies enabled us to highlight the benefits and possibilities for the analysis of the connectome as well as some current limitations.

Monitoring and Switching of First-line Antiretroviral Therapy in sub-Saharan Africa: Collaborative Analysis of Adult Treatment Cohorts.

BACKGROUND HIV-1 viral load (VL) testing is recommended to monitor antiretroviral therapy (ART) but not universally available. We examined monitoring of first-line and switching to second-line ART in sub-Saharan Africa, 2004-2013. METHODS Adult HIV-1 infected patients starting combination ART in 16 countries were included. Switching was defined as a change from a non-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-based regimen to a protease inhibitor (PI)-based regimen, with a change of ≥1 NRTI. Virological and immunological failures were defined per World Health Organization criteria. We calculated cumulative probabilities of switching and hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals (CI) comparing routine VL monitoring, targeted VL monitoring, CD4 cell monitoring and clinical monitoring, adjusted for programme and individual characteristics. FINDINGS Of 297,825 eligible patients, 10,352 patients (3·5%) switched during 782,412 person-years of follow-up. Compared to CD4 monitoring hazard ratios for switching were 3·15 (95% CI 2·92-3·40) for routine VL, 1·21 (1·13-1·30) for targeted VL and 0·49 (0·43-0·56) for clinical monitoring. Overall 58.0% of patients with confirmed virological and 19·3% of patients with confirmed immunological failure switched within 2 years. Among patients who switched the percentage with evidence of treatment failure based on a single CD4 or VL measurement ranged from 32·1% with clinical to 84.3% with targeted VL monitoring. Median CD4 counts at switching were 215 cells/µl under routine VL monitoring but lower with other monitoring (114-133 cells/µl). INTERPRETATION Overall few patients switched to second-line ART and switching occurred late in the absence of routine viral load monitoring. Switching was more common and occurred earlier with targeted or routine viral load testing.

Analysis of house prices to assess economic impacts of new public transport infrastructure: Madrid metro line 12.

Transportation infrastructure is known to affect the value of real estate property by virtue of changes in accessibility. The impact of transportation facilities is highly localized as well, and it is possible that spillover effects result from the capitalization of accessibility. The objective of this study was to review the theoretical background related to spatial hedonic models and the opportunities that they provided to evaluate the effect of new transportation infrastructure. An empirical case study is presented: the Madrid Metro Line 12, known as Metrosur, in the region of Madrid, Spain. The effect of proximity to metro stations on housing prices was evaluated. The analysis took into account a host of variables, including structure, location, and neighborhood and made use of three modeling approaches: linear regression estimation with ordinary least squares, spatial error, and spatial lag. The results indicated that better accessibility to Metrosur stations had a positive impact on real estate values and that the effect was marked in cases in which a house was for sale. The results also showed the presence of submarkets, which were well defined by geographic boundaries, and transport fares, which implied that the economic benefits differed across municipalities.

MRI texture analysis as means for addressing rehydration and milk diffusion of cereals

Cereals microstructure is one of the primary quality attributes of cereals. Cereals rehydration and milk diffusion depends on such microstructure and thus, the crispiness and the texture, which will make it more palatable for the final consumer. Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) is a very powerful topographic tool since acquisition parameter leads to a wide possibility for identifying textures, structures and liquids mobility. It is suited for non-invasive imaging of water and fats. Rehydration and diffusion cereals processes were measured by MRI at different times and using two different kinds of milk, varying their fat level. Several images were obtained. A combination of textural analysis (based on the analysis of histograms) and segmentation methods (in order to understand the rehydration level of each variety of cereals) were performed. According to the rehydration level, no advisable clustering behavior was found. Nevertheless, some differences were noticeable between the coating, the type of milk and the variety of cereals

Analysis of lateral dynamics of railway vehicles on viaducts with coupled models

The study of lateral dynamics of running trains on bridges is of importance mainly for the safety of the traffic, and may be relevant for laterally compliant bridges. These studies require 3D coupled vehicle-bridge models, and consideration of wheel to rail contact, a phenomenon which is complex and costly to model in detail. We describe here a fully nonlinear coupled model, described in absolute coordinates and incorporated into a commercial finite element framework. Two applications are presented, firstly to a vehicle subject to a strong wind gust traversing a br idge, showing the relevance of the nonlinear wheel-rail contact model as well as the interaction between bridge and vehicle. The second application is to a real viaduct in a high-speed line, with a long continuous deck and tall piers with high lateral compliance. The results show the safety of the traffic as well as the relevance of considering the wind action and the nonlinear response.

A Comparative Analysis of Regulations on Involuntary Loss of Nationality in the European Union. CEPS Liberty and Security in Europe, 75/December 2014

This study examines the workings of the Common European Asylum System (CEAS), in order to assess the need and potential for new approaches to ensure access to protection for people seeking it in the EU, including joint processing and distribution of asylum seekers. Rather than advocating the addition of further complexity and coercion to the CEAS, the study proposes a focus on front-line reception and streamlined refugee status determination, in order to mitigate the asylum challenges facing Member States, and vindicate the rights of asylum seekers and refugees according to the EU acquis and international legal standards. Joint processing could contribute to front-line reception and processing capacity, but is no substitute for proper investment in national systems. The Dublin system as currently configured leads inexorably to increasing coercion and detention, and must thus be reconfigured to remove coercion as a principle and ensure consistency with human rights and other fundamental values of the EU.

Dynamics of on-line learning in radial basis function networks

On-line learning is examined for the radial basis function network, an important and practical type of neural network. The evolution of generalization error is calculated within a framework which allows the phenomena of the learning process, such as the specialization of the hidden units, to be analyzed. The distinct stages of training are elucidated, and the role of the learning rate described. The three most important stages of training, the symmetric phase, the symmetry-breaking phase, and the convergence phase, are analyzed in detail; the convergence phase analysis allows derivation of maximal and optimal learning rates. As well as finding the evolution of the mean system parameters, the variances of these parameters are derived and shown to be typically small. Finally, the analytic results are strongly confirmed by simulations.

The theory of on-line learning: a statistical physics approach

In this paper we review recent theoretical approaches for analysing the dynamics of on-line learning in multilayer neural networks using methods adopted from statistical physics. The analysis is based on monitoring a set of macroscopic variables from which the generalisation error can be calculated. A closed set of dynamical equations for the macroscopic variables is derived analytically and solved numerically. The theoretical framework is then employed for defining optimal learning parameters and for analysing the incorporation of second order information into the learning process using natural gradient descent and matrix-momentum based methods. We will also briefly explain an extension of the original framework for analysing the case where training examples are sampled with repetition.

Comparative analysis of BER estimation methods in numerical simulation of 40-Gb/s RZ-DPSK transmission with in-line SOAs

Applying direct error counting, we compare the accuracy and evaluate the validity of different available numerical approaches to the estimation of the bit-error rate (BER) in 40-Gb/s return-to-zero differential phase-shift-keying transmission. As a particular example, we consider a system with in-line semiconductor optical amplifiers. We demonstrate that none of the existing models has an absolute superiority over the others. We also reveal the impact of the duty cycle on the accuracy of the BER estimates through the differently introduced Q-factors.

Comparative analysis of BER estimation methods in numerical simulation of 40-Gb/s RZ-DPSK transmission with in-line SOAs

Applying direct error counting, we compare the accuracy and evaluate the validity of different available numerical approaches to the estimation of the bit-error rate (BER) in 40-Gb/s return-to-zero differential phase-shift-keying transmission. As a particular example, we consider a system with in-line semiconductor optical amplifiers. We demonstrate that none of the existing models has an absolute superiority over the others. We also reveal the impact of the duty cycle on the accuracy of the BER estimates through the differently introduced Q-factors. © 2007 IEEE.

Analysis of femtosecond laser surface patterning on bulk single-crystalline diamond

Preliminary work is reported on 2-D and 3-D microstructures written directly with a Yb:YAG 1026 nm femtosecond (fs) laser on bulk chemical vapour deposition (CVD) single-crystalline diamond. Smooth graphitic lines and other structures were written on the surface of a CVD diamond sample with a thickness of 0.7mm under low laser fluences. This capability opens up the opportunity for making electronic devices and micro-electromechanical structures on diamond substrates. The fabrication process was optimised through testing a range of laser energies at a 100 kHz repetition rate with sub-500fs pulses. These graphitic lines and structures have been characterised using optical microscopy, Raman spectroscopy, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy and atomic force microscopy. Using these analysis techniques, the formation of sp2 and sp3 bonds is explored and the ratio between sp2 and sp3 bonds after fs laser patterning is quantified. We present the early findings from this study and characterise the relationship between the graphitic line formation and the different fs laser exposure conditions. © 2012 Taylor & Francis.

Az információterjedés szerepe az innováció-elfogadásban. Az okostelefonok és az on-line kollektív intelligencia (Role of informationspread in the innovation acceptance: the smart phones and the online collective intelligence)

A tanulmány célja az innováció-terjedés marketingvonzatú irodalmának bemutatása, valamint betekintés az exploratív tartalomelemzés módszerével az informális, kollektív intelligenciát generáló on-line felületek, nevesül a blogok és fórumok kutathatóságába. Az okostelefonok innováció-elfogadásának példáján keresztül a szerzők megpróbálják felderíteni az információterjedés elméletének megvalósulását az elemzett felületeken. Bemutatnak három, a mintára jellemző információterjedési és felvett szerep mintát, melyek alapul szolgálhatnak a további célirányú kutatások számára. / === / Adaptive smart phones that give space for user-added functions create active online discussions. Committed users are ready to share information, advise others, while less expert users seek this information. In their paper the authors show that related user-generated content i.e. blogs and bulletin boards provide a rich data source for analysis, which gives them the opportunity to further elaborate on the diffusion of information in the case of smart phone usage among online Hungarian users. Online collective intelligence may well contribute to the diffusion of innovations through diffusing information. Following a thorough review on the literature on the diffusion of innovations, in their exploratory content analysis, they found two categories of users on the analyzed boards: a first group we dubbed "experts" (corresponding to innovators in Bass's typology) that made a special effort trying to solve particular problems thus contributing to collective intelligence, thus reducing (among others) the perceived complexity of these phones and adding to their trialability, both factors influencing users' innovation acceptance, and a second group, "simple users" (or imitators in Bass's typology), uninterested in product innovation, still asking questions and searching for solutions concerning extant technology. Manufacturers do not seem yet to regard these boards as a source of valuable data, even though these clearly serve as an important pool of information and a growing factor of decision for their potential customers.