Hybrid Wavelet-PSO-ANFIS Approach for Short-Term Electricity Prices Forecasting

A novel hybrid approach, combining wavelet transform, particle swarm optimization, and adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system, is proposed in this paper for short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market. Results from a case study based on the electricity market of mainland Spain are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results of previous publications. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn.

Optimal offering strategies for wind power producers considering uncertainty and risk

This paper provides a two-stage stochastic programming approach for the development of optimal offering strategies for wind power producers. Uncertainty is related to electricity market prices and wind power production. A hybrid intelligent approach, combining wavelet transform, particle swarm optimization and adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system, is used in this paper to generate plausible scenarios. Also, risk aversion is explicitly modeled using the conditional value-at-risk methodology. Results from a realistic case study, based on a wind farm in Portugal, are provided and analyzed. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn.

Short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competetive market by a hybrid Pso-Anfis approach

In this paper, a novel hybrid approach is proposed for electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market, considering a time horizon of 1 week. The proposed approach is based on the combination of particle swarm optimization and adaptive-network based fuzzy inference system. Results from a case study based on the electricity market of mainland Spain are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results of previous publications, to demonstrate its effectiveness regarding forecasting accuracy and computation time. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn.

Sistemas de Detecção de Intrusões Análise de intrusões na rede multimédia da Unipiaget

Os sistemas computacionais ligados através da rede precisam, cada vez mais, de medidas e mecanismos de protecção que os permitem realizar as suas tarefas de acordo com os objectivos traçados pelos indivíduos ou organizações que os utilizam. Neste sentido, os Intrusion Detection System (IDS) ou Sistemas de Detecção de Intrusão desempenham um papel preponderante na monitorização contínua de actividades de um sistema pretendendo, essencialmente, garantir a autenticidade, confidencialidade, integridade e, sobretudo, a disponibilidade dos seus recursos. O presente trabalho apresenta um estudo sobre os Sistemas de Detecção de Intrusões, apresentando ainda um caso de estudo sobre a Rede Multimédia da Universidade Jean Piaget de Cabo Verde, estudo esse que incide sobre uma ferramenta Open Source, o Snort

Evolving features-algorithms knowledge map to support NIDS data intelligence and learning loop architecting – a generalised approach to NIDS pattern feature space knowledge processing

This paper describes a proposed new approach to the Computer Network Security Intrusion Detection Systems (NIDS) application domain knowledge processing focused on a topic map technology-enabled representation of features of the threat pattern space as well as the knowledge of situated efficacy of alternative candidate algorithms for pattern recognition within the NIDS domain. Thus an integrative knowledge representation framework for virtualisation, data intelligence and learning loop architecting in the NIDS domain is described together with specific aspects of its deployment.

Estrutura ANFIS modificada para identificação e controle de plantas com ampla faixa de operação e não linearidade acentuada

In this work a modification on ANFIS (Adaptive Network Based Fuzzy Inference System) structure is proposed to find a systematic method for nonlinear plants, with large operational range, identification and control, using linear local systems: models and controllers. This method is based on multiple model approach. This way, linear local models are obtained and then those models are combined by the proposed neurofuzzy structure. A metric that allows a satisfactory combination of those models is obtained after the structure training. It results on plant s global identification. A controller is projected for each local model. The global control is obtained by mixing local controllers signals. This is done by the modified ANFIS. The modification on ANFIS architecture allows the two neurofuzzy structures knowledge sharing. So the same metric obtained to combine models can be used to combine controllers. Two cases study are used to validate the new ANFIS structure. The knowledge sharing is evaluated in the second case study. It shows that just one modified ANFIS structure is necessary to combine linear models to identify, a nonlinear plant, and combine linear controllers to control this plant. The proposed method allows the usage of any identification and control techniques for local models and local controllers obtaining. It also reduces the complexity of ANFIS usage for identification and control. This work has prioritized simpler techniques for the identification and control systems to simplify the use of the method

Artificial neural networks: A novel approach to analysing the nutritional ecology of a blowfly species, Chrysomya megacephala

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Il Problema della Sicurezza nel Cloud Computing

Il termine cloud ha origine dal mondo delle telecomunicazioni quando i provider iniziarono ad utilizzare servizi basati su reti virtuali private (VPN) per la comunicazione dei dati. Il cloud computing ha a che fare con la computazione, il software, l’accesso ai dati e servizi di memorizzazione in modo tale che l’utente finale non abbia idea della posizione fisica dei dati e la configurazione del sistema in cui risiedono. Il cloud computing è un recente trend nel mondo IT che muove la computazione e i dati lontano dai desktop e dai pc portatili portandoli in larghi data centers. La definizione di cloud computing data dal NIST dice che il cloud computing è un modello che permette accesso di rete on-demand a un pool condiviso di risorse computazionali che può essere rapidamente utilizzato e rilasciato con sforzo di gestione ed interazione con il provider del servizio minimi. Con la proliferazione a larga scala di Internet nel mondo le applicazioni ora possono essere distribuite come servizi tramite Internet; come risultato, i costi complessivi di questi servizi vengono abbattuti. L’obbiettivo principale del cloud computing è utilizzare meglio risorse distribuite, combinarle assieme per raggiungere un throughput più elevato e risolvere problemi di computazione su larga scala. Le aziende che si appoggiano ai servizi cloud risparmiano su costi di infrastruttura e mantenimento di risorse computazionali poichè trasferiscono questo aspetto al provider; in questo modo le aziende si possono occupare esclusivamente del business di loro interesse. Mano a mano che il cloud computing diventa più popolare, vengono esposte preoccupazioni riguardo i problemi di sicurezza introdotti con l’utilizzo di questo nuovo modello. Le caratteristiche di questo nuovo modello di deployment differiscono ampiamente da quelle delle architetture tradizionali, e i meccanismi di sicurezza tradizionali risultano inefficienti o inutili. Il cloud computing offre molti benefici ma è anche più vulnerabile a minacce. Ci sono molte sfide e rischi nel cloud computing che aumentano la minaccia della compromissione dei dati. Queste preoccupazioni rendono le aziende restie dall’adoperare soluzioni di cloud computing, rallentandone la diffusione. Negli anni recenti molti sforzi sono andati nella ricerca sulla sicurezza degli ambienti cloud, sulla classificazione delle minacce e sull’analisi di rischio; purtroppo i problemi del cloud sono di vario livello e non esiste una soluzione univoca. Dopo aver presentato una breve introduzione sul cloud computing in generale, l’obiettivo di questo elaborato è quello di fornire una panoramica sulle vulnerabilità principali del modello cloud in base alle sue caratteristiche, per poi effettuare una analisi di rischio dal punto di vista del cliente riguardo l’utilizzo del cloud. In questo modo valutando i rischi e le opportunità un cliente deve decidere se adottare una soluzione di tipo cloud. Alla fine verrà presentato un framework che mira a risolvere un particolare problema, quello del traffico malevolo sulla rete cloud. L’elaborato è strutturato nel modo seguente: nel primo capitolo verrà data una panoramica del cloud computing, evidenziandone caratteristiche, architettura, modelli di servizio, modelli di deployment ed eventuali problemi riguardo il cloud. Nel secondo capitolo verrà data una introduzione alla sicurezza in ambito informatico per poi passare nello specifico alla sicurezza nel modello di cloud computing. Verranno considerate le vulnerabilità derivanti dalle tecnologie e dalle caratteristiche che enucleano il cloud, per poi passare ad una analisi dei rischi. I rischi sono di diversa natura, da quelli prettamente tecnologici a quelli derivanti da questioni legali o amministrative, fino a quelli non specifici al cloud ma che lo riguardano comunque. Per ogni rischio verranno elencati i beni afflitti in caso di attacco e verrà espresso un livello di rischio che va dal basso fino al molto alto. Ogni rischio dovrà essere messo in conto con le opportunità che l’aspetto da cui quel rischio nasce offre. Nell’ultimo capitolo verrà illustrato un framework per la protezione della rete interna del cloud, installando un Intrusion Detection System con pattern recognition e anomaly detection.

Low-speed longitudinal controllers for mass-produced cars: A comparative study

Four longitudinal control techniques are compared: a classical Proportional-Integral (PI) control; an advanced technique-called the i-PI-that adds an intelligent component to the PI; a fuzzy controller based on human experience; and an adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system. The controllers were designed to tackle one of the challenging topics as yet unsolved by the automotive sector: managing autonomously a gasoline-propelled vehicle at very low speeds. The dynamics involved are highly nonlinear and constitute an excellent test-bed for newly designed controllers. A Citroën C3 Pluriel car was modified to permit autonomous action on the accelerator and the brake pedals-i.e., longitudinal control. The controllers were tested in two stages. First, the vehicle was modeled to check the controllers' feasibility. Second, the controllers were then implemented in the Citroën, and their behavior under the same conditions on an identical real circuit was compared.

Real-time alert correlation with type graphs

The premise of automated alert correlation is to accept that false alerts from a low level intrusion detection system are inevitable and use attack models to explain the output in an understandable way. Several algorithms exist for this purpose which use attack graphs to model the ways in which attacks can be combined. These algorithms can be classified in to two broad categories namely scenario-graph approaches, which create an attack model starting from a vulnerability assessment and type-graph approaches which rely on an abstract model of the relations between attack types. Some research in to improving the efficiency of type-graph correlation has been carried out but this research has ignored the hypothesizing of missing alerts. Our work is to present a novel type-graph algorithm which unifies correlation and hypothesizing in to a single operation. Our experimental results indicate that the approach is extremely efficient in the face of intensive alerts and produces compact output graphs comparable to other techniques.

Multilayer Perceptron Neural Networks Training Through Charged System Search and its Application for Non-Technical Losses Detection

The non-technical loss is not a problem with trivial solution or regional character and its minimization represents the guarantee of investments in product quality and maintenance of power systems, introduced by a competitive environment after the period of privatization in the national scene. In this paper, we show how to improve the training phase of a neural network-based classifier using a recently proposed meta-heuristic technique called Charged System Search, which is based on the interactions between electrically charged particles. The experiments were carried out in the context of non-technical loss in power distribution systems in a dataset obtained from a Brazilian electrical power company, and have demonstrated the robustness of the proposed technique against with several others natureinspired optimization techniques for training neural networks. Thus, it is possible to improve some applications on Smart Grids.

Dynamic bandwidth management as part of an integrated network management system based on distributed agents

We present a system for dynamic network resource configuration in environments with bandwidth reservation and path restoration mechanisms. Our focus is on the dynamic bandwidth management results, although the main goal of the system is the integration of the different mechanisms that manage the reserved paths (bandwidth, restoration, and spare capacity planning). The objective is to avoid conflicts between these mechanisms. The system is able to dynamically manage a logical network such as a virtual path network in ATM or a label switch path network in MPLS. This system has been designed to be modular in the sense that in can be activated or deactivated, and it can be applied only in a sub-network. The system design and implementation is based on a multi-agent system (MAS). We also included details of its architecture and implementation

An Alternative Approach To Computer System Security Monitoring And Enhancement Through System Call Sequence Analysis

Modern computer systems are plagued with stability and security problems: applications lose data, web servers are hacked, and systems crash under heavy load. Many of these problems or anomalies arise from rare program behavior caused by attacks or errors. A substantial percentage of the web-based attacks are due to buffer overflows. Many methods have been devised to detect and prevent anomalous situations that arise from buffer overflows. The current state-of-art of anomaly detection systems is relatively primitive and mainly depend on static code checking to take care of buffer overflow attacks. For protection, Stack Guards and I-leap Guards are also used in wide varieties.This dissertation proposes an anomaly detection system, based on frequencies of system calls in the system call trace. System call traces represented as frequency sequences are profiled using sequence sets. A sequence set is identified by the starting sequence and frequencies of specific system calls. The deviations of the current input sequence from the corresponding normal profile in the frequency pattern of system calls is computed and expressed as an anomaly score. A simple Bayesian model is used for an accurate detection.Experimental results are reported which show that frequency of system calls represented using sequence sets, captures the normal behavior of programs under normal conditions of usage. This captured behavior allows the system to detect anomalies with a low rate of false positives. Data are presented which show that Bayesian Network on frequency variations responds effectively to induced buffer overflows. It can also help administrators to detect deviations in program flow introduced due to errors.

Dynamic bandwidth management as part of an integrated network management system based on distributed agents

We present a system for dynamic network resource configuration in environments with bandwidth reservation and path restoration mechanisms. Our focus is on the dynamic bandwidth management results, although the main goal of the system is the integration of the different mechanisms that manage the reserved paths (bandwidth, restoration, and spare capacity planning). The objective is to avoid conflicts between these mechanisms. The system is able to dynamically manage a logical network such as a virtual path network in ATM or a label switch path network in MPLS. This system has been designed to be modular in the sense that in can be activated or deactivated, and it can be applied only in a sub-network. The system design and implementation is based on a multi-agent system (MAS). We also included details of its architecture and implementation

Multilayer perceptron neural networks training through charged system search and its Application for non-technical losses detection

The non-technical loss is not a problem with trivial solution or regional character and its minimization represents the guarantee of investments in product quality and maintenance of power systems, introduced by a competitive environment after the period of privatization in the national scene. In this paper, we show how to improve the training phase of a neural network-based classifier using a recently proposed meta-heuristic technique called Charged System Search, which is based on the interactions between electrically charged particles. The experiments were carried out in the context of non-technical loss in power distribution systems in a dataset obtained from a Brazilian electrical power company, and have demonstrated the robustness of the proposed technique against with several others nature-inspired optimization techniques for training neural networks. Thus, it is possible to improve some applications on Smart Grids. © 2013 IEEE.