A multivariate analysis of the relationship between work ability and S. japonicum infection in Dongting Lake Region, in China

A cross-sectional case-control study on the association between the reduced work ability and S. japonicum infection was carried out in a moderate endemic area for schistosomiasis japonica in the southern part of Dongting lake in China. A total of 120 cases with reduced work ability and 240 controls paired to the case by age, sex, occupation and without reduced work ability, participated in the study. The mean age for individuals was 37.6 years old (21-60), the ratio of male: female was 60:40, the prevalence of S. japonicum in the individuals was 28.3%. The results obtained in this study showed that the infection of S. japonicum in case and control groups was 49.2% (59/120) and 17.9% (43/240), respectively. Odds ratio for reduced work ability among those who had schistosomiasis was 4.34 (95%), confidence interval was 2.58-7.34, and among those who had S. japonicum infection (egg per gram > 100) was up to 12.67 (95%), confidence interval was 3.64-46.39. After odds ratio was adjusted by multiple logistic regression, it was confirmed that heavier intensity of S. japonicum infection and splenomegaly due to S. japonicum infection were the main risk factors for reduced work ability in the population studied.

American Society of Anesthesiologists Score: Still Useful After 60 Years? Results of the EuSOS Study

OBJECTIVE: The European Surgical Outcomes Study described mortality following in-patient surgery. Several factors were identified that were able to predict poor outcomes in a multivariate analysis. These included age, procedure urgency, severity and type and the American Association of Anaesthesia score. This study describes in greater detail the relationship between the American Association of Anaesthesia score and postoperative mortality. METHODS: Patients in this 7-day cohort study were enrolled in April 2011. Consecutive patients aged 16 years and older undergoing inpatient non-cardiac surgery with a recorded American Association of Anaesthesia score in 498 hospitals across 28 European nations were included and followed up for a maximum of 60 days. The primary endpoint was in-hospital mortality. Decision tree analysis with the CHAID (SPSS) system was used to delineate nodes associated with mortality. RESULTS: The study enrolled 46,539 patients. Due to missing values, 873 patients were excluded, resulting in the analysis of 45,666 patients. Increasing American Association of Anaesthesia scores were associated with increased admission rates to intensive care and higher mortality rates. Despite a progressive relationship with mortality, discrimination was poor, with an area under the ROC curve of 0.658 (95% CI 0.642 - 0.6775). Using regression trees (CHAID), we identified four discrete American Association of Anaesthesia nodes associated with mortality, with American Association of Anaesthesia 1 and American Association of Anaesthesia 2 compressed into the same node. CONCLUSION: The American Association of Anaesthesia score can be used to determine higher risk groups of surgical patients, but clinicians cannot use the score to discriminate between grades 1 and 2. Overall, the discriminatory power of the model was less than acceptable for widespread use.

Combining probabilistic land-use change and tree population dynamics modelling to simulate responses in mountain forests

Altitudinal tree lines are mainly constrained by temperature, but can also be influenced by factors such as human activity, particularly in the European Alps, where centuries of agricultural use have affected the tree-line. Over the last decades this trend has been reversed due to changing agricultural practices and land-abandonment. We aimed to combine a statistical land-abandonment model with a forest dynamics model, to take into account the combined effects of climate and human land-use on the Alpine tree-line in Switzerland. Land-abandonment probability was expressed by a logistic regression function of degree-day sum, distance from forest edge, soil stoniness, slope, proportion of employees in the secondary and tertiary sectors, proportion of commuters and proportion of full-time farms. This was implemented in the TreeMig spatio-temporal forest model. Distance from forest edge and degree-day sum vary through feed-back from the dynamics part of TreeMig and climate change scenarios, while the other variables remain constant for each grid cell over time. The new model, TreeMig-LAb, was tested on theoretical landscapes, where the variables in the land-abandonment model were varied one by one. This confirmed the strong influence of distance from forest and slope on the abandonment probability. Degree-day sum has a more complex role, with opposite influences on land-abandonment and forest growth. TreeMig-LAb was also applied to a case study area in the Upper Engadine (Swiss Alps), along with a model where abandonment probability was a constant. Two scenarios were used: natural succession only (100% probability) and a probability of abandonment based on past transition proportions in that area (2.1% per decade). The former showed new forest growing in all but the highest-altitude locations. The latter was more realistic as to numbers of newly forested cells, but their location was random and the resulting landscape heterogeneous. Using the logistic regression model gave results consistent with observed patterns of land-abandonment: existing forests expanded and gaps closed, leading to an increasingly homogeneous landscape.

Die Säuglingssterblichkeit in der Schweiz: multivariate Betrachtung. [Perinatal mortality in Switzerland: a multivariate analysis]

A regression analysis using a linked file of all Swiss births und perinatal deaths 1979-1981 showed a significant relation between birthweight and canton. Sex of infant and multiplicity of birth were significant, too. For live births, marital and socio-economic status of mother and father relate to birthweight. Logistic regressions brought out relationships between the risk of stillbirth and occupation of father, nationality and marital status of mother, apart from birthweight. For live births, only sex and (weakly) marital status and rank of the child were influencial after correction for birthweight.

Predicting positive food challenges at the introduction of nuts in sensitised children

Rationale: Children with atopic diseases in early life are frequently found with positive IgE tests to nuts, without a history of previous ingestion. We aimed to identify risk factors for reactions to nuts at their first introduction. Methods: A detailed retrospective case note and database analysis was performed. Inclusion criteria were: patients aged 3 to 16 years who had had a standardized food challenge to peanut and/or tree nuts due to primary sensitisation to the nut (positive specific IgE or SPT). A detailed assessment was performed of factors relating to food challenge outcome with univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Results: There were 98 food challenges (48% peanut, 52% tree nut) with 29 positive, 67 negative and 2 inconclusive challenges. A positive maternal history and a specific IgE > 2 kU/l were strongly associated with a significantly increased risk of a positive food challenge (OR 3.54; 95% CI 1.28 to 9.81; and OR 4.82; 95% CI 1.57 to 14.86; respectively). There was no significant association between the type of nut, age, presence of other food allergies, paternal or sibling atopic history, other atopic conditions or severity of previous reaction to other foods. Conclusions: We have demonstrated an association between the presence of a maternal atopic history and a specific IgE > 2 kU/l, and a significant increase in the likelihood of a positive food challenge in children with primary sensitisation to nuts. Although requiring further prospective validation we suggest these easily identifiable components should be considered when deciding the need for a nut challenge.

Global Genomic Diversity of Human Papillomavirus 6 Based on 724 Isolates and 190 Complete Genome Sequences.

Human papillomavirus type 6 (HPV6) is the major etiological agent of anogenital warts and laryngeal papillomas and has been included in both the quadrivalent and nonavalent prophylactic HPV vaccines. This study investigated the global genomic diversity of HPV6, using 724 isolates and 190 complete genomes from six continents, and the association of HPV6 genomic variants with geographical location, anatomical site of infection/disease, and gender. Initially, a 2,800-bp E5a-E5b-L1-LCR fragment was sequenced from 492/530 (92.8%) HPV6-positive samples collected for this study. Among them, 130 exhibited at least one single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), indel, or amino acid change in the E5a-E5b-L1-LCR fragment and were sequenced in full. A global alignment and maximum likelihood tree of 190 complete HPV6 genomes (130 fully sequenced in this study and 60 obtained from sequence repositories) revealed two variant lineages, A and B, and five B sublineages: B1, B2, B3, B4, and B5. HPV6 (sub)lineage-specific SNPs and a 960-bp representative region for whole-genome-based phylogenetic clustering within the L2 open reading frame were identified. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that lineage B predominated globally. Sublineage B3 was more common in Africa and North and South America, and lineage A was more common in Asia. Sublineages B1 and B3 were associated with anogenital infections, indicating a potential lesion-specific predilection of some HPV6 sublineages. Females had higher odds for infection with sublineage B3 than males. In conclusion, a global HPV6 phylogenetic analysis revealed the existence of two variant lineages and five sublineages, showing some degree of ethnogeographic, gender, and/or disease predilection in their distribution. IMPORTANCE: This study established the largest database of globally circulating HPV6 genomic variants and contributed a total of 130 new, complete HPV6 genome sequences to available sequence repositories. Two HPV6 variant lineages and five sublineages were identified and showed some degree of association with geographical location, anatomical site of infection/disease, and/or gender. We additionally identified several HPV6 lineage- and sublineage-specific SNPs to facilitate the identification of HPV6 variants and determined a representative region within the L2 gene that is suitable for HPV6 whole-genome-based phylogenetic analysis. This study complements and significantly expands the current knowledge of HPV6 genetic diversity and forms a comprehensive basis for future epidemiological, evolutionary, functional, pathogenicity, vaccination, and molecular assay development studies.

Multiscale determinants of tree frog (Hyla arborea L.) calling ponds in western Switzerland

A tree frog (Hyla arborea L., 1758) metapopulation in western Switzerland was studied during spring 2001. All potential calling ponds in an area of 350 km(2) were searched for tree frog calling males. Twenty-nine out of 111 ponds sheltered between 1 and 250 callers. Most ponds were occupied by less than 12 males. Pond parameters were measured at three different levels using field analysis and a Geographical Information System (GIS). The first level was water chemistry and pond-associated measures. The second level was the surrounding land use in a 30 m buffer around the pond. The third level consisted of landscape indices on a broader scale (up to 2 km). Logistic regression was applied to identify parameters that can predict the presence of calling males in a pond. Response variable was the presence or absence of callers. Four significant parameters allowed us to explain about 40% of the total deviance of the observed occupational pattern. Urbanization around the pond had a highly negative impact on the probability of presence of calling males. Hours of direct sunlight on the pond was positively correlated with callers. Higher water conductivity was associated with a lesser probability of species presence. Finally, the further the closest two-lane road, the higher the probability of callers presence. Our results show that presence or absence of callers is influenced by factors acting at various geographical scales.

Prediction of 18-month survival in patients with primary myelodysplastic syndrome. A regression model and scoring system based on the combination of chromosome findings and the Bournemouth score.

The predictive potential of six selected factors was assessed in 72 patients with primary myelodysplastic syndrome using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis of survival at 18 months. Factors were age (above median of 69 years), dysplastic features in the three myeloid bone marrow cell lineages, presence of chromosome defects, all metaphases abnormal, double or complex chromosome defects (C23), and a Bournemouth score of 2, 3, or 4 (B234). In the multivariate approach, B234 and C23 proved to be significantly associated with a reduction in the survival probability. The similarity of the regression coefficients associated with these two factors means that they have about the same weight. Consequently, the model was simplified by counting the number of factors (0, 1, or 2) present in each patient, thus generating a scoring system called the Lausanne-Bournemouth score (LB score). The LB score combines the well-recognized and easy-to-use Bournemouth score (B score) with the chromosome defect complexity, C23 constituting an additional indicator of patient outcome. The predicted risk of death within 18 months calculated from the model is as follows: 7.1% (confidence interval: 1.7-24.8) for patients with an LB score of 0, 60.1% (44.7-73.8) for an LB score of 1, and 96.8% (84.5-99.4) for an LB score of 2. The scoring system presented here has several interesting features. The LB score may improve the predictive value of the B score, as it is able to recognize two prognostic groups in the intermediate risk category of patients with B scores of 2 or 3. It has also the ability to identify two distinct prognostic subclasses among RAEB and possibly CMML patients. In addition to its above-described usefulness in the prognostic evaluation, the LB score may bring new insights into the understanding of evolution patterns in MDS. We used the combination of the B score and chromosome complexity to define four classes which may be considered four possible states of myelodysplasia and which describe two distinct evolutional pathways.

Molecular Proxies for Climate Maladaptation in a Long-Lived Tree (Pinus pinaster Aiton, Pinaceae).

Understanding adaptive genetic responses to climate change is a main challenge for preserving biological diversity. Successful predictive models for climate-driven range shifts of species depend on the integration of information on adaptation, including that derived from genomic studies. Long-lived forest trees can experience substantial environmental change across generations, which results in a much more prominent adaptation lag than in annual species. Here, we show that candidate-gene SNPs (single nucleotide polymorphisms) can be used as predictors of maladaptation to climate in maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Aiton), an outcrossing long-lived keystone tree. A set of 18 SNPs potentially associated with climate, 5 of them involving amino acid-changing variants, were retained after performing logistic regression, latent factor mixed models, and Bayesian analyses of SNP-climate correlations. These relationships identified temperature as an important adaptive driver in maritime pine and highlighted that selective forces are operating differentially in geographically discrete gene pools. The frequency of the locally advantageous alleles at these selected loci was strongly correlated with survival in a common garden under extreme (hot and dry) climate conditions, which suggests that candidate-gene SNPs can be used to forecast the likely destiny of natural forest ecosystems under climate change scenarios. Differential levels of forest decline are anticipated for distinct maritime pine gene pools. Geographically defined molecular proxies for climate adaptation will thus critically enhance the predictive power of range-shift models and help establish mitigation measures for long-lived keystone forest trees in the face of impending climate change.

Divergence and genetic variability among superior rubber tree genotypes

The objective of this work was to estimate the genetic variability and divergence among 22 superior rubber tree (Hevea sp.) genotypes of the IAC 400 series. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed using eight quantitative traits (descriptors), including yield. In the univariate analyses, the estimated parameters were: genetic and environmental variances; genetic and environmental coefficients of variation; and the variation index. The Mahalanobis generalized distance, the Tocher agglomerative method and canonical variables were used for the multivariate analyses. In the univariate analyses, variability was verified among the genotypes for all the variables evaluated. The Tocher method grouped the genotypes into 11 clusters of dissimilarity. The first four canonical variables explained 87.93% of the cumulative variation. The highest genetic variability was found in rubber yield-related traits, which contributed the most to the genetic divergence. The most divergent pairs of genotypes are suggested for crossbreeding. The genotypes evaluated are suitable for breeding and may be used to continue the IAC rubber tree breeding program.

Leaf area estimatites of custard apple tree progenies

Leaf area measurements are required in several agronomical studies. Usually, there is an interest for measurement methods that are simple, quick and that will not destroy the leaf. The objectives of this work were to evaluate leaf area (y), length (l) and width (w) of 20 half-sibling progenies of custard apple tree (Annona squamosa L.), and to fit regression equations of the type y = a + bx, where x = l.w, that will allow y to be estimated based on l and w. The experiment was conducted as random blocks with five replicates and four plants per plot. Five mature leaves were randomly collected from each plant. Leaf area was measured with an automatic measuring device and leaf dimensions were determined with a ruler. All values of b were different from zero. Differences occurred only in 11% of the 190 possible comparison pairs between progenies, with regard to the estimates of b. No differences were observed between progenies with respect to leaf length, width and area. In view of this fact, the equation y = 0.72 x (R² = 0.77) was fitted for all progenies.

Preoperative nutritional screening by the specialist instead of the nutritional risk score might prevent excess nutrition: a multivariate analysis of nutritional risk factors.

BACKGROUND: The aim of the current study was to assess whether widely used nutritional parameters are correlated with the nutritional risk score (NRS-2002) to identify postoperative morbidity and to evaluate the role of nutritionists in nutritional assessment. METHODS: A randomized trial on preoperative nutritional interventions (NCT00512213) provided the study cohort of 152 patients at nutritional risk (NRS-2002 ≥3) with a comprehensive phenotyping including diverse nutritional parameters (n=17), elaborated by nutritional specialists, and potential demographic and surgical (n=5) confounders. Risk factors for overall, severe (Dindo-Clavien 3-5) and infectious complications were identified by univariate analysis; parameters with P<0.20 were then entered in a multiple logistic regression model. RESULTS: Final analysis included 140 patients with complete datasets. Of these, 61 patients (43.6%) were overweight, and 72 patients (51.4%) experienced at least one complication of any degree of severity. Univariate analysis identified a correlation between few (≤3) active co-morbidities (OR=4.94; 95% CI: 1.47-16.56, p=0.01) and overall complications. Patients screened as being malnourished by nutritional specialists presented less overall complications compared to the not malnourished (OR=0.47; 95% CI: 0.22-0.97, p=0.043). Severe postoperative complications occurred more often in patients with low lean body mass (OR=1.06; 95% CI: 1-1.12, p=0.028). Few (≤3) active co-morbidities (OR=8.8; 95% CI: 1.12-68.99, p=0.008) were related with postoperative infections. Patients screened as being malnourished by nutritional specialists presented less infectious complications (OR=0.28; 95% CI: 0.1-0.78), p=0.014) as compared to the not malnourished. Multivariate analysis identified few co-morbidities (OR=6.33; 95% CI: 1.75-22.84, p=0.005), low weight loss (OR=1.08; 95% CI: 1.02-1.14, p=0.006) and low hemoglobin concentration (OR=2.84; 95% CI: 1.22-6.59, p=0.021) as independent risk factors for overall postoperative complications. Compliance with nutritional supplements (OR=0.37; 95% CI: 0.14-0.97, p=0.041) and supplementation of malnourished patients as assessed by nutritional specialists (OR=0.24; 95% CI: 0.08-0.69, p=0.009) were independently associated with decreased infectious complications. CONCLUSIONS: Nutritional support based upon NRS-2002 screening might result in overnutrition, with potentially deleterious clinical consequences. We emphasize the importance of detailed assessment of the nutritional status by a dedicated specialist before deciding on early nutritional intervention for patients with an initial NRS-2002 score of ≥3.

Estimating 750 years of temperature variations and uncertainties in the Pyrenees by tree-ring reconstructions and climate simulations.

Past temperature variations are usually inferred from proxy data or estimated using general circulation models. Comparisons between climate estimations derived from proxy records and from model simulations help to better understand mechanisms driving climate variations, and also offer the possibility to identify deficiencies in both approaches. This paper presents regional temperature reconstructions based on tree-ring maximum density series in the Pyrenees, and compares them with the output of global simulations for this region and with regional climate model simulations conducted for the target region. An ensemble of 24 reconstructions of May-to-September regional mean temperature was derived from 22 maximum density tree-ring site chronologies distributed over the larger Pyrenees area. Four different tree-ring series standardization procedures were applied, combining two detrending methods: 300-yr spline and the regional curve standardization (RCS). Additionally, different methodological variants for the regional chronology were generated by using three different aggregation methods. Calibration verification trials were performed in split periods and using two methods: regression and a simple variance matching. The resulting set of temperature reconstructions was compared with climate simulations performed with global (ECHO-G) and regional (MM5) climate models. The 24 variants of May-to-September temperature reconstructions reveal a generally coherent pattern of inter-annual to multi-centennial temperature variations in the Pyrenees region for the last 750 yr. However, some reconstructions display a marked positive trend for the entire length of the reconstruction, pointing out that the application of the RCS method to a suboptimal set of samples may lead to unreliable results. Climate model simulations agree with the tree-ring based reconstructions at multi-decadal time scales, suggesting solar variability and volcanism as the main factors controlling preindustrial mean temperature variations in the Pyrenees. Nevertheless, the comparison also highlights differences with the reconstructions, mainly in the amplitude of past temperature variations and in the 20th century trends. Neither proxy-based reconstructions nor model simulations are able to perfectly track the temperature variations of the instrumental record, suggesting that both approximations still need further improvements.

Hipsometric relationship modeling using data sampled in tree scaling and inventory plots

This work evaluated eight hypsometric models to represent tree height-diameter relationship, using data obtained from the scaling of 118 trees and 25 inventory plots. Residue graphic analysis and percent deviation mean criteria, qui-square test precision, residual standard error between real and estimated heights and the graybill f test were adopted. The identity of the hypsometric models was also verified by applying the F(Ho) test on the plot data grouped to the scaling data. It was concluded that better accuracy can be obtained by using the model prodan, with h and d1,3 data measured in 10 trees by plots grouped into these scaling data measurements of even-aged forest stands.

Vegetative propagation of bauhinia x blakeana, an ornamental sterile tree

Bauhinia x blakeana (B. purpurea x B. variegata) is a natural hybrid that has been cultivated in gardens, streets and parks. Due to its sterility, it must be vegetatively propagated. The objective of this work was to evaluate the viability of cuttings and grafting on its propagation. Semi-woody cuttings were collected during four seasons and treated with 0; 1,000; 2,000; and 3,000 mg L-1 of IBA. The experimental design was entirely randomized and the treatments were arranged in a 4x4 factorial scheme (four collecting times x four IBA concentrations) and five replications with 10 cuttings each, per collecting time and per IBA concentration. Characteristics of roots and shoots were evaluated after 90 days. The data means were compared by the Tukey test and submitted to the polynomial regression analysis. For the grafting experiment, B. variegata and B. variegata var. candida plants of six and 12 months were used as rootstocks and the splice graft and T-budding methods were tested. The experimental design was entirely randomized and the treatments were arranged in a 2x2x2 factorial scheme (two rootstock species x two grafting methods x two rootstock ages) and four replications with five plants each, per rootstock species, per grafting method and per rootstock age. Characteristics of shoots were evaluated after 90 days and the data means were compared by the Tukey test. B. x blakeana can be propagated by semi-woody cuttings collected in spring, without IBA application, or in summer, with the application of 3,000 mg L-1 of IBA. The tested grafting methods were not effective.