Bayesian methodology incorporating expert judgment for ranking countermeasure effectiveness under uncertainty: Example applied to at grade railroad crossings in Korea

This paper describes the formalization and application of a methodology to evaluate the safety benefit of countermeasures in the face of uncertainty. To illustrate the methodology, 18 countermeasures for improving safety of at grade railroad crossings (AGRXs) in the Republic of Korea are considered. Akin to “stated preference” methods in travel survey research, the methodology applies random selection and laws of large numbers to derive accident modification factor (AMF) densities from expert opinions. In a full Bayesian analysis framework, the collective opinions in the form of AMF densities (data likelihood) are combined with prior knowledge (AMF density priors) for the 18 countermeasures to obtain ‘best’ estimates of AMFs (AMF posterior credible intervals). The countermeasures are then compared and recommended based on the largest safety returns with minimum risk (uncertainty). To the author's knowledge the complete methodology is new and has not previously been applied or reported in the literature. The results demonstrate that the methodology is able to discern anticipated safety benefit differences across candidate countermeasures. For the 18 at grade railroad crossings considered in this analysis, it was found that the top three performing countermeasures for reducing crashes are in-vehicle warning systems, obstacle detection systems, and constant warning time systems.

A 3D visualisation model applied to a thick, multi-layered alluvial groundwater system under stress : Condamine Valley, QLD

The upper Condamine River in southern Queensland has formed extensive alluvial deposits which have been used for irrigation of cotton crops for over 40 years. Due to excessive use and long term drought conditions these groundwater resources are under substantial threat. This condition is now recognised by all stakeholders, and Qld Department of Environment and Resource Management (DERM) are currently undertaking a water planning process for the Central Condamine Alluvium with water users and other stakeholders. DERM aims to effectively demonstrate the character of the groundwater system and its current status, and notably the continued long-term drawdown of the watertable. It was agreed that 3D visualisation was an ideal tool to achieve this. The Groundwater Visualisation System (GVS) developed at QUT was utilised and the visualisation model developed in conjunction with DERM to achieve a planning-management tool for this particular application

Continuous passive motion applied to whole joints stimulates chondrocyte blosynthesis of PRG4

Continuous passive motion (CPM) is currently a part of patient rehabilitation regimens after a variety of orthopedic surgical procedures. While CPM can enhance the joint healing process, the direct effects of CPM on cartilage metabolism remain unknown. Recent in vivo and in vitro observations suggest that mechanical stimuli can regulate articular cartilage metabolism of proteoglycan 4 (PRG4), a putative lubricating and chondroprotective molecule found in synovial fluid and at the articular cartilage surface. ----- ----- Objectives: (1) Determine the topographical variation in intrinsic cartilage PRG4 secretion. (2) Apply a CPM device to whole joints in bioreactors and assess effects of CPM on PRG4 biosynthesis.----- ----- Methods: A bioreactor was developed to apply CPM to bovine stifle joints in vitro. Effects of 24 h of CPM on PRG4 biosynthesis were determined.----- ----- Results: PRG4 secretion rate varied markedly over the joint surface. Rehabilitative joint motion applied in the form of CPM regulated PRG4 biosynthesis, in a manner dependent on the duty cycle of cartilage sliding against opposing tissues. Specifically, in certain regions of the femoral condyle that were continuously or intermittently sliding against meniscus and tibial cartilage during CPM, chondrocyte PRG4 synthesis was higher with CPM than without.----- ----- Conclusions: Rehabilitative joint motion, applied in the form of CPM, stimulates chondrocyte PRG4 metabolism. The stimulation of PRG4 synthesis is one mechanism by which CPM may benefit cartilage and joint health in post-operative rehabilitation. (C) 2006 Osteoarthritis Research Society International. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Improving team dynamics and innovation : the “Aspect Design” approach applied to interaction design

Interaction Design is a fast developing branch of Industrial Design. The availability of cheap microprocessors and sensor electronics allow interactions between people and products that were until recently impossible. This has added additional layers of complexity to the design process. Novice designers find it difficult to effectively juggle these complexities and typically tend to focus on one aspect at a time. They also tend to take a linear, step-by-step approach to the design process in contrast to expert designers who pursue “parallel lines of thought” whilst simultaneously co-evolving both problem and solution. (Lawson, 1993) This paper explores an approach that encourages designers (in this case novice designers) to take a parallel rather than linear approach to the design process. It also addresses the problem of social loafing that tends to occur in team activities.

The theories of reasoned action and planned behaviour applied to business decision : a selective annotated bibliography

Purpose: This paper provides a selective annotated bibliography that summarises journal articles which have employed either the theory of reasoned action or the theory of planned behaviour to circumstances which are relevant to business activities. Design/methodology/approach: Searches were conducted on the EBSCO Host and ProQuest databases to identify papers that had used either the theory of reasoned action or theory of planned behaviour in their methodology. The bibliography was separated into three categories- financial decision making, strategic decision making, and professional decision making. Implications: The information presented in this paper is intended to assist and facilitate further research by broadening the awareness of the literature and providing examples of the application of the theory as it has been employed in prior research.

HMM triangle relative entropy concepts in sequential change detection applied to vision-based dim target manoeuvre detection

The quick detection of abrupt (unknown) parameter changes in an observed hidden Markov model (HMM) is important in several applications. Motivated by the recent application of relative entropy concepts in the robust sequential change detection problem (and the related model selection problem), this paper proposes a sequential unknown change detection algorithm based on a relative entropy based HMM parameter estimator. Our proposed approach is able to overcome the lack of knowledge of post-change parameters, and is illustrated to have similar performance to the popular cumulative sum (CUSUM) algorithm (which requires knowledge of the post-change parameter values) when examined, on both simulated and real data, in a vision-based aircraft manoeuvre detection problem.

A mixed-method study to investigate the relationship between the number of social support people present during labour, women’s perceptions and birth outcomes

The birth of a baby is a significant event for women and their families, with the event being influenced by the prevailing social and cultural context. Historically, women throughout the world have given birth at home assisted by other women who helped them cope with the stress of labour and birth. In the middle of the twentieth century, the togetherness, caring and support that were provided within the social and cultural context of childbirth began to change; women in most developed countries, and to some extent in developing countries, laboured and gave birth in institutions that isolated them from the support of family and friends. This practice is referred to as the medical model of childbirth and, over time, birthing within this model has come to be viewed by women as a dehumanising experience. In an attempt to secure a more supportive experience, women began to demand the presence of a supportive companion; namely their partner. This event became the catalyst for a number of studies focusing on different types of support providers and their contribution to the phenomenon of social support during labour. More recently, it has become a common practice for some women to be supported during labour by a number of people from their social network. However, research on the influence of such supportive people on women’s experience of labour and birth and on birth outcomes is scarce. The aim of this study is to examine the influence of various support arrangements from a woman’s family and social network on her experience of labour and birth and on birth outcomes. The mixed-method study was conducted to answer three research questions: 1. Do women with more than one support person present during labour and birth have similar perceptions and experiences of support compared to women with one support person? 2. Do women with more than one support person present during labour and birth have similar birth outcomes compared to women with one support person? 3. Do women with different types of support providers during labour and birth have similar birth outcomes? Methods Phase one of this study developed, pilot tested and administered a newly developed instrument designed to measure women’s perceptions of supportive behaviours provided during labour. Specific birth outcome data were extracted from the medical records. Phase two consisted of in-depth interviews with a sample of women who had completed the survey. Results: The results identified a statistically significant relationship between women’s perceptions of social support and the number of support providers: women supported by one person only rated the supportive behaviours of that person more highly compared to women who were supported by a number of people. The results also identified that women supported by one person used less analgesia. An additional qualitative finding was that some women sacrificed the support of female relatives at the request of their partners. Conclusion: By using a mixed-method approach, this study found that women were selective in their choice of support providers, as they chose individuals with whom they had an enduring affectionate attachment. Women place more emphasis on a support person’s ability to fulfil their attachment needs of close proximity and a sense of security and safety, rather than their ability to provide the expected functional supportive behaviours.

A framework for determining the authenticity of assessment tasks : applied to an example in law

Authentic assessment tasks enhance engagement, retention and the aspirations of students. This paper explores the discipline-generic features of authentic assessment, which reflect what students need to achieve in the real world. Some assessment tasks are more authentic than others and this paper designs a proposed framework supported by the literature that aids unit co-ordinators to determine the level of authenticity of an assessment task. The framework is applied to three summative assessment tasks, that is, tutorial participation, advocacy exercise and problem-based exam, in a law unit. The level of authenticity of the assessment tasks is compared and opportunities to improve authenticity are identified.