Determinants of frailty: the added value of assessing medication

This study aims to analyze which determinants predict frailty in general and each frailty domain (physical, psychological, and social), considering the integral conceptual model of frailty, and particularly to examine the contribution of medication in this prediction. A cross-sectional study was designed using a non-probabilistic sample of 252 community-dwelling elderly from three Portuguese cities. Frailty and determinants of frailty were assessed with the Tilburg Frailty Indicator. The amount and type of different daily-consumed medication were also examined. Hierarchical regression analysis were conducted. The mean age of the participants was 79.2 years (±7.3), and most of them were women (75.8%), widowed (55.6%) and with a low educational level (0–4 years: 63.9%). In this study, determinants explained 46% of the variance of total frailty, and 39.8, 25.3, and 27.7% of physical, psychological, and social frailty respectively. Age, gender, income, death of a loved one in the past year, lifestyle, satisfaction with living environment and self-reported comorbidity predicted total frailty, while each frailty domain was associated with a different set of determinants. The number of daily-consumed drugs was independently associated with physical frailty, and the consumption of medication for the cardiovascular system and for the blood and blood-forming organs explained part of the variance of total and physical frailty. The adverse effects of polymedication and its direct link with the level of comorbidities could explain the independent contribution of the amount of prescribed drugs to frailty prediction. On the other hand, findings in regard to medication type provide further evidence of the association of frailty with cardiovascular risk. In the present study, a significant part of frailty was predicted, and the different contributions of each determinant to frailty domains highlight the relevance of the integral model of frailty. The added value of a simple assessment of medication was considerable, and it should be taken into account for effective identification of frailty.

A regulação endócrina dos balanços de cálcio

RESUMO: As concentrações circulantes de cálcio são notavelmente constantes a despeito das variações diárias na absorção intestinal e na eliminação renal deste elemento. A regulação da calcémia é um sistema complexo que compreende vários factores controladores (a calcémia, a fosforémia, as concentrações circulantes de paratormona (PTH) e calcitriol além de muitos outros factores como hormonas esteróides em geral, outros iões como o magnésio e outros factores hormonais) e vários órgãos alvo (glândulas paratiroideias, osso, rim e intestino). As respostas dos órgãos alvo também são muito variadas. No caso mais simples, a cristalização de sais de cálcio corresponde a uma mudança de fase em que participam moléculas orgânicas que a iniciam, aceleram ou inibem. Em geral a combinação de um factor controlador com o respectivo receptor de membrana (para polipeptídeos ou iões) ou intracelular (hormonas esteróides) é apenas o primeiro passo de uma cadeia bioquímica que introduz uma enorme amplificação na resposta. A esta variedade de mecanismos de resposta correspondem grandes diferenças nos tempos de resposta que podem ser de minutos a semanas. É hoje possível “observar” (medir) com apreciável rigor nos líquidos biológicos (sangue, urina, fezes, etc.) os factores mais importantes do sistema de regulação da calcémia (cálcio, fósforo, paratormona e calcitriol) assim como administrar estes factores em experiências agudas. Esta possibilidade reflecte – se na literatura neste campo que tem vindo a crescer. O advento das técnicas da biologia molecular tem permitido a caracterização molecular de algumas das disfunções da homeostase do cálcio e é de esperar um diagnóstico fisiopatológico cada vez mais rigoroso dessas disfunções. Com o avanço dos conhecimentos nesta área que não cessa de aumentar temos cada vez maiores capacidades para fazer diagnósticos e é cada vez mais difícil interpretar com rigor os correspondentes quadros metabólicos. A análise ou síntese de sistemas complexos é a actividade mais nobre dos engenheiros que lhes permite desenhar pontes, diques, barcos, aviões ou automóveis. Com o aparecimento de computadores de médio ou grande porte foi – lhes possível utilizar descrições matemáticas não só para desenhar sistemas como ainda para interpretar eventuais falhas na sua operação. Essas descrições matemáticas consistem numa sequência de operações realizadas num computador segundo um “programa informático” que receberam a designação genérica de modelos, por analogia com as famosas leis (equações) da física que foram deduzidas a partir de um certo número de postulados e que permitem representar matematicamente processos físicos. As famosas leis de Newton são talvez os exemplos mais famosos de “modelos” de sistemas físicos. A introdução de modelos matemáticos em biologia e particularmente em medicina só se deu recentemente.MÉTODOS No trabalho que aqui se apresenta construiu - se um modelo simplificado da homeostase do cálcio destinado ao cálculo de variáveis observáveis (concentrações de cálcio, fósforo, PTH e calcitriol) de modo a poderem comparar-se valores calculados com valores observados. A escolha dos componentes do modelo foi determinada pela nossa experiência clínica e pela informação fisiopatológica e clínica publicada. Houve a preocupação de construir o modelo de forma modular de modo a ser possível a sua expansão sem grandes transformações na descrição matemática (e informática) já existente. Na sua fase actual o modelo não pode ser usado como instrumento de diagnóstico. É antes uma ferramenta destinada a esclarecer “em princípio” mecanismos fisiopatológicos. Usou – se o modelo para simular um certo número de observações publicadas e para exemplificar a sua eventual aplicação clínica na simulação de situações hipotéticas e na análise de possíveis mecanismos fisiopatológicos responsáveis por situações de hipo ou hipercalcémias. Simultaneamente fez – se uma análise dos dados acumulados relativos a doentes vistos no Serviço de Endocrinologia do Instituto Português de Oncologia de Francisco Gentil – Centro Regional Oncológico de Lisboa, S.A. CONCLUSÕES Numa população de 894 doentes com patologias variadas do Instituto Português de Oncologia de Lisboa os valores da calcémia tiveram uma distribuição normal unimodal com uma média de 9.56 mg/dl, e um erro padrão de 0.41 mg/dl. Estas observações sugerem que a calcémia está sujeita a regulação. A partir dos resultados publicados em que o metabolismo do cálcio foi perturbado por infusões de cálcio, calcitriol ou PTH, de estudos bioquímicos e fisiológicos sobre os mecanismos de acção de factores controladores da calcémia e do estudo do comportamento de órgãos alvo (paratiroideias, intestino, osso e rim) foi possível construir um modelo matemático de parâmetros concentrados do sistema de regulação da calcémia. As expressões analíticas usadas foram baseadas na cinética enzimática de modo a que os seus parâmetros tivessem um significado físico ou fisiológico simples. O modelo revelou apreciável robustez e flexibilidade. É estável quando não perturbado e transita entre estados estacionários quando perturbado. Na sua forma actual gera simulações que reproduzem satisfatoriamente um número apreciável de dados experimentais colhidos em doentes. Isto não significa que possa ser usado como instrumento de diagnóstico aplicável a doentes individuais. O desenho do modelo comporta a adição posterior de novas relações quando surgirem situações para as quais se revele insuficiente. A utilização exaustiva do modelo permitiu explicitar aspectos do metabolismo do cálcio que ou não estão contidas na sua formulação actual – o aparecimento de hipertrofia ou de adenomas das paratiroideias e as alterações na estrutura óssea , a participação de outros factores controladores – magnésio, ou estão insuficientemente descritas – alterações do metabolismo do fósforo nos hipoparatiroidismos. A análise dos dados relativos aos doentes do Serviço de Endocrinologia do IPO permitiu o início da caracterização dos tipos de patologia que representam e de possíveis mecanismos fisiopatológicos subjacentes. Estas observações são o ponto de partida para análises futuras. São exemplos das relações encontradas: a distribuição dos doentes por dois grandes grupos conforme a calcémia é determinada pelas concentrações circulantes de PTH ou estas são determinadas pela calcémia; a distribuição sazonal das concentrações de Vit. D25. no sangue; a correlação negativa entre estas e as concentrações de PTH no sangue. Também foi possível extrair a cinética do controlo da PTH sobre a síntese de calcitriol. O estudo dos níveis circulantes de PTH no pós-operatório imediato de doentes paratiroidectomizados permitiu determinar as suas taxas de degradação metabólica. O modelo permitiu simular as relações Ca/PTH no sangue, Ca/Fracção excretada da carga tubular, Ca/P no sangue para valores normais ou altos de Ca. Foram feitas simulações de situações fisiopatológicas (em “doentes virtuais”): infusões crónicas de cálcio, PTH e calcitriol; alterações no comportamento de receptores. Estas simulações correspondem a experiências que não podem ser realizadas em humanos. São exemplos da utilização do modelo na exploração de possíveis mecanismos fisiopatológicos através da observação de resultados quantitativos inacessíveis à intuição. O modelo foi útil em duas fases do trabalho: Primeiro, durante a sua síntese implicou uma escolha criticamente selectiva de informação, sua análise quantitativa e processamento, uma explicitação rigorosa (analítica) das relações funcionais entre os controladores e as variáveis e da sua integração numa estrutura global; Segundo, a simulação de situações experimentais ou clínicas (dados do Serviço de Endocrinologia do IPO) em doentes obrigou a explicitar raciocínios fisiopatológicos habitualmente formulados em bases puramente intuitivas. Esta prática revelou comportamentos óbvios após as simulações – acção reduzida das infusões PTH (simulação de hiperparatiroidismos primários) enquanto não há inibição total da respectiva secreção, necessidade de aumento da massa secretora da paratiroideia nas insuficiências renais avançadas, etc. A síntese e utilização do modelo não implicaram uma preparação matemática avançada e foram possíveis mercê da disponibilidade de “software” interactivo especificamente desenhado para a simulação de sistemas dinâmicos em que os programas se escrevem em inglês usando a simbologia simples da álgebra elementar. A função nobre de modelos desta natureza é semelhante à dos modelos usados pelos físicos desde o século XVII: permitir explicações de carácter geral funcionando como uma ferramenta intelectual para manipulação de conceitos e para a realização de “experiências pensadas” (“thought experiments”) respeitando certos princípios físicos (princípios de conservação) que estabelecem as fronteiras da realidade. -------ABSTRACT: Calcium blood levels are remarkably constant despite great variations in calcium daily intake, intestinal absorption and renal excretion. The regulation of the calcium concentration in the blood is achieved by a complex system that includes several controller factors (mainly the serum levels of calcium, phosphorus, parathyroid hormone (PTH) and calcitriol but also of steroid hormones, ions such as magnesium and other hormonal factors) and several target organs (parathyroid glands, bone, kidney and intestine). The functional response to the controlling factors obeys a variety of kinetics. The precipitation of calcium salts is a simple phase transition in which organic molecules may provide nucleation centres or inhibit the process. The combination of a controller factor with its receptor located in the cell membrane (for peptides or ions) or in the nucleus (for steroid hormones) is only the first step of a biochemical chain that introduces a huge amplification in the response. To this great variability of response we have to add the times of response that vary from minutes to weeks. It is possible to “observe” (measure) with great accuracy in biological fluids (blood, urine, faeces, etc.) the most important factors intervening in the calcium regulation (calcium, phosphorus, PTH and calcitriol). The response of the system to acute infusions of the controlling factors has also been studied. Using molecular biology techniques it has been possible to characterize some calcium homeostasis dysfunctions and better physiopathological diagnosis are expected. With the increasingly new knowledge in this area we have better capacity to diagnose but it is harder to explain correctly the underlying metabolic mechanisms. The analysis or synthesis of complex systems is the noble activity of engineers that enables them to draw bridges, dams, boats, airplanes or cars. With the availability of medium-large frame computers it was possible to use mathematical descriptions not only to draw systems but also to explain flaws in its operations. These mathematical descriptions are generally known as models by analogy with the laws (equations) of physics that allow the mathematical description of physical processes. In practice it is not possible to find general solutions for the mathematical descriptions of complex systems but (numeric) computations for specific situations can be obtained with digital computers. The introduction of mathematical models in biology and particularly in medicine is a recent event. METHODS In this thesis a simplified model of calcium homeostasis was built that enables the computation of observable variables (concentrations of calcium, phosphorus, PTH and calcitriol) and allows the comparison between the simulation values and observed values. The choice of the model’s components was made according to our clinical experience and to the published clinical and physiopathological data. The model has a modular design that allows future expansions with minor alterations in its structure. In its present form the model cannot be used for diagnosis. It is a tool designed to enlighten physiopathological processes. To exemplify its possible clinical application in the simulation of hypothetical situations and in the analysis of possible mechanisms responsible for hypo or hypercalcemias the model was used to simulate a certain number of published observations. An analysis of clinical and laboratory data from the Endocrinology Department of the Portuguese Cancer Institute (I.P.O.F.G.-C.R.O.L.,S.A.) is also presented. CONCLUSIONS In a population of 188 patients without an identifiable disease of the calcium metabolism at the Portuguese Cancer Institute the calcemia levels had a unimodal distribution with an average of 9.56 mg/dL and a S.E.M of 0.41 mg/dL. This observation confirms that serum calcium is regulated. Using published data; in which calcium metabolism was disrupted by calcium, PTH or calcitriol infusions; from biochemical and physiological studies of the action of controller factors on the calcemia; in which the response of target organs (parathyroid glands, intestine, bone, kidney) was studied it was possible to build a mathematical model of concentrated parameters of the calcium homeostasis. Analytical expressions used were based on enzymatic kinetics. The model is flexible and robust. It is stable when not disturbed and changes between steady states when disturbed. In its present form it provides simulations that reproduce closely a number of experimental clinical data. This does not mean that it can be used as a diagnostic tool for individual patients. The exhaustive utilisation of the model revealed the need of future expansions to include aspects of the calcium metabolism not included in its present form –hypertrophy or adenomas of the parathyroid glands, bone structure changes, participation of other controller factors such as magnesium – or insufficiently described – phosphate metabolism in hypoparathyroidism. The analysis of the data collected from the I.P.O.’s Endocrinology Department allowed the initial characterization of the different pathologies represented and of their possible physiopathological mechanisms. These observations are a starting point for future analysis. As examples of the relations found were: the distribution of patients in two groups according to the dependency of calcium by PTH levels or PTH levels by calcium concentration; the seasonal distribution of the serum concentrations of D25; its negative correlation with PTH concentration. It was also possible to extract the kinetics of the control of the synthesis of calcitriol by PTH. The analysis of immediate post-surgical levels of PTH in parathyroidectomized patients allowed the determination of its metabolic clearance. The model also allowed the simulation of the relations between Ca/PTH in blood, serum Ca/Fraction of tubular load excreted and Ca/P in blood for normal and high values of calcium. Simulations were made of pathological situations (in “virtual patients”): chronic infusions of calcium, PTH and calcitriol; changes in the characteristics of receptors. These simulations are not possible in real persons. They are an example of the use of this model in exploring possible mechanisms of disease through the observation of quantitative results not accessible to simple intuition. This model was useful in two phases: Firstly, its construction required a careful choice of data, its quantitative analysis and processing, an analytical description of the relations between controller factors and variables and their integration in a global structure. Secondly, the simulation of experimental or clinical (I.P.O.’s Endocrinology Department) data implied testing physiopathological explanations that previously were based on intuition. The construction and utilisation of the model didn’t demand an advanced mathematical preparation since user-friendly interactive software was used. This software was specifically designed for the simulation of dynamic systems. The programs are written in English using elementary algebra symbols. The essential function of this type of models is identical to that of those used by physicists since the XVII century which describe quantitatively natural processes and are an intellectual tool for the manipulation of concepts and the performance of “thought experiments” based in certain physical principles (conservation principles) that are the frontiers of reality.------------------RESUMÉE: Les concentrations circulantes de calcium sont constantes même pendant des variations de l’absorption intestinale et de l’élimination rénale de cet élément. La régulation de la calcémie est un système complexe qui comprend plusieurs éléments contrôleurs (la calcémie, la phosphorémie, les concentrations circulantes de l’hormone parathyroïdienne (PTH) e du calcitriol et d’autres comme les hormones stéroïdes ou des ions comme le magnésium) et plusieurs organes (glandes parathyroïdiennes, l’os, le rein et l’intestin). Les réponses de ces organes sont variées. Dans le cas plus simple, la cristallisation des sels de calcium correspond à un changement de phase dans lequel y participent des molécules organiques que la débutent, l’accélèrent ou l’inhibent. Généralement la combinaison d’un élément contrôleur avec leur récepteur de membrane (pour les peptides ou les ions) ou intracellulaire (pour les hormones stéroïdes) n’est que le premier pas d’une chaîne biochimique qu’introduit une grande amplification de la réponse. A cette variété de réponses correspondent des grandes différences des temps de réponses qu’y vont des minuits a semaines. Il est possible « observer » (mesurer) dans les fluides biologiques (sang, urine, fèces, etc.) les éléments plus importants du système de régulation de la calcémie (calcium, phosphate, PTH et le calcitriol) et les administrer en expérimentes aigus. Cette possibilité est visible dans la littérature publiée dans ce domaine qui est en croissance permanente. L’avenir des techniques de biologie moléculaire a permis caractériser des nombreuses dysfonctions de la régulation de la calcémie et on attend un diagnostique physiopathologique de ces dysfonctions chaque fois plus rigoureuses. Les connaissances dans ce domaine s’agrandissent et on a de plus de capacités pour faire des diagnostiques et il est chaque fois plus difficile les interpréter. L’analyse ou synthèse de systèmes complexes est l’activité plus noble des ingénieurs qui les permit dessiner des ponts, bateaux, avions ou automobiles. Avec des ordinateurs de médium ou grand port il les est possible utiliser descriptions mathématiques pour dessiner les systèmes et interpréter des éventuelles fautes d’opération. Ces descriptions mathématiques sont une séquence d’opérations réalisées dans un ordinateur selon « un programme informatique » qui ont reçu la désignation générique de modèles, pour analogie avec les équations de la physique qui ont été déduits d’un nombre de postulées et qu’ont permit représenter des processus physiques en équations mathématiques. Les fameuses équations de Newton sont peut-être les exemples plus connus des systèmes physiques. L’introduction des modèles mathématiques en biologie et en particulier en médecine est un évènement récent. Dans ce travaille, on a construit un modèle simplifié de l’homéostasie du calcium pour calculer les variables observables (concentrations de calcium, phosphate, PTH et calcitriol) pour les comparer. Les choix des components a été déterminés par notre expérience clinique et par l’information physiopathologique et clinique publiée. Le modèle a été construit de façon modulaire ce que permit leur postérieur expansion sans des grandes altérations dans la description mathématique et informatique déjà existante. Dans cette forme le modèle ne peut être utilisé comme un instrument de diagnostique. Il est un outil pour éclairer la physiopathologie. Le modèle a été utilisé pour simuler un certain nombre d’observations publiées et pour exemplifier leur possible utilisation clinique dans la simulation des hypothèses et de la physiopathologie des situations d’hypo ou hypercalcémie. On a fait une analyse des éléments des procès cliniques des malades observées dans le Service d’Endocrinologie de l’IPOFG-CROL, SA. Dans une population de 894 malades avec des différentes pathologies les valeurs de calcémie on une distribution uni modale avec une Médie de 9.56 mg/dL et une erreur standard de 0.41 mg/dL. Ces observations suggèrent que la calcémie soit sujette de régulation. En utilisant des résultats de travaux publiés dans lesquels le métabolisme du calcium a été changé par des infusions de calcium, calcitriol ou PTH, des études biochimiques et physiologiques sur des mécanismes d’action des éléments contrôleurs de la calcémie et de l’étude du comportement des organes cible (parathyroïdes, intestin, rein, os), il a été possible de construire un modèle mathématique de paramètres concentrés du système de régulation de la calcémie. Les expressions analytiques utilisées ont été basées sur la cinétique enzymatique de façon à que les paramètres aient eu une signification physique ou biologique. Le modèle est stable quand il n’est pas perturbé et transit entre états stationnaires quand il est sujet a des perturbations. A ce moment il fait des simulations qui reproduisent de façon satisfaisant un nombre d’observations expérimentales. La construction du modèle permit l’addiction de nouvelles relations dans les cas ou il est insuffisant. L’utilisation exhaustive du modèle a permit expliciter des aspects du métabolisme du calcium qui y ne sont pas compris – l’hyperplasie ou la formation des adénomes des parathyroïdes, les altérations de la structure des os, la participation d’outres éléments régulateurs (magnésium), ou sont insuffisamment décrites – les altérations du métabolisme des phosphates dans l’hypoparathyroidism. L’analyse de l’information des malades du Service d’Endocrinologie a permit caractériser les pathologies représentées et leurs possibles mécanismes physiopathologiques. Ces observations sont le point de départ pour les analyses futures. Sont des exemples des relations trouvées: la distribution des malades par deux groupes: ceux dans lequel la calcémie est déterminée par la PTH ou ceux dans lesquels la PTH est déterminée par la calcémie; la distribution sazonale de la concentration de la vitamine D; la corrélation négative entre la vitamine D et la PTH. On a eu la possibilité de déduire la cinétique de control de la PTH sur la synthèse du calcitriol. L’étude des niveaux circulants de PTH sur des sujets parathyroidectomisées a permit déduire leur taux de dégradation métabolique. Le modèle a permit simuler les relations Ca/PTH dans le sang, Ca/fraction éliminée par le rein, Ca/P dans le sang pour des valeurs normales ou hautes de calcium. On a fait des simulations de situations physiopathologiques (dans “malades virtuelles”): Infusions chroniques de calcium, PTH ou calcitriol; altérations des récepteurs. Ces simulations ne peuvent pas être réalisées dans les humains. Sont des exemples d’utilisation du modèle dans l’exploration des possibles mécanismes de la physiopathologie en observant des résultats quantitatifs inaccessibles à l’intuition. Le modèle a été utile pendant deux étapes des travaux: La première, dans sa construction on a choisi l’information disponible, son analyse quantitative, l’explicitation rigoureuse (analytique) des relations fonctionnelles entre les contrôleurs et les variables et sa intégration dans une structure globale. La deuxième, la simulation de situations expérimentales ou cliniques (du Service d’Endocrinologie) a obligé d’expliciter des raisonnements physiopathologiques généralement formulés utilisant l’intuition. Cette pratique a montré des comportements – action réduite des infusions de PTH (jusqu’à l’inhibition totale de leur respective sécrétion), nécessité d’augmenter la masse sécréteuse de la parathyroïde dans les insuffisants rénales, etc. La synthèse et utilisation du modèle n’ont pas besoin d’une formation avancée en mathématique et sont possibles grâce à un programme interactif qui a été conçu pour la simulation des systèmes dynamiques dans lesquels le programme se construit en anglais en utilisant la symbolique élémentaire de l’algèbre. La fonction noble de ces modèles est semblable à celles des physiques du XVII siècle: Permettre établir explications générales en fonctionnant comme un outil intellectuel pour manipuler des concepts et pour la réalisation d’expérimentes pensées en respectant certains principes de la physique (principe de la conservation) qu’établissent les frontières de la réalité.

Propriedades Psicométricas da Versão Portuguesa do Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire na Miocardiopatia Dilatada com Insuficiência Cardíaca Congestiva

Several studies have shown that patients with congestive heart failure (CHF) have a compromised health-related quality of life (HRQL), and this, in recent years, has become a primary endpoint when considering the impact of treatment of chronic conditions such as CHF. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the psychometric properties of the Portuguese version of a new specific instrument to measure HRQL in patients hospitalized for CHF: the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ). METHODS: The KCCQ was applied to a sample of 193 consecutive patients hospitalized for CHF. Of these, 105 repeated the assessment 3 months after admission, with no events during this period. Mean age was 64.4 +/- 12.4 years (21-88), and 72.5% were 72.5% male. CHF was of ischemic etiology in 4% of cases. RESULTS: This version of the KCCQ was subjected to statistical validation, with assessment of reliability and validity, similar to the American version. Reliability was assessed by the internal consistency of the domains and summary scores, which showed similar values of Cronbach alpha (0.50-0.94). Validity was assessed by convergence, sensitivity to differences between groups and sensitivity to changes in clinical condition. We evaluated the convergent validity of all domains related to functionality, through the relationship between them and a measure of functionality, the New York Heart Association (NYHA) classification. Significant correlations were found (p < 0.01) for this measure of functionality i patients with CHF. Analysis of variance between the physical limitation domain, the summary scores and NYHA class was performed and statistically significant differences were found (F = 23.4; F = 36.4; F = 37.4, p = 0.0001) in the ability to discriminate severity of clinical condition. A second evaluation was performed on 105 patients at the 3-month follow-up outpatient appointment, and significant changes were observed in the mean scores of the domains assessed between hospital admission and the clinic appointment (differences from 14.9 to 30.6 on a scale of 0-100), indicating that the domains assessed are sensitive to changes in clinical condition. The correlation between dimensions of quality of life in the KCCQ is moderate, suggesting that the dimensions are independent, supporting the multifactorial nature of HRQL and the suitability of this measure for its evaluation. CONCLUSION: The KCCQ is a valid instrument, sensitive to change and a specific measure of HRQL in a population with dilated cardiomyopathy and CHF.

Tilt Training Increases Vasoconstrictor Reserve in Patients with Neurocardiogenic Syncope

Neurocardiogenic syncope (NCS) is a common clinical entity resulting from an excessive reflex autonomic response, particularly during orthostatism. Treatment options are controversial and of limited effectiveness. Tilt training (TT) is a promising option to treat these patients. However, its mechanism of action and clinical impact remain unclear. OBJECTIVE: To characterize hemodynamic and autonomic responses during a TT program in patients with NCS refractory to conventional measures. METHODS: We studied 28 patients (50% male, mean age 41±14 years) without structural heart disease, with NCS documented by tilt testing. The TT program included 9 tilt sessions (3 times a week, 30 min) (60° - 6 sessions, 70° - 3 sessions), under ECG and blood pressure monitoring combined with home orthostatic self-training and 10° head-up during sleep. Systolic volume, cardiac output, total peripheral resistance, baroreflex sensitivity and heart-rate variability were computed. Patients were reassessed at 1 month and every 6 months for a maximum of 36 months (24±12 months). RESULTS: Over the course of the TT program there was a significant increase in total peripheral resistance (1485±225 vs. 1591±187 dyn·s·cm(-5), p<0.05), with a decrease in standard deviation (206±60 vs. 150±42, p<0.05). During follow-up, syncope recurred in five patients (19%), with a significant reduction in the number of episodes (4.0±3.2/patient in the 12 months before TT vs. 1.4±0.8/patient post-TT, p<0.05). CONCLUSION: In refractory NCS, TT may be an effective therapeutic option, with long-term benefits. These results appear to be due to an increase in vasoconstrictor reserve combined with a reduction in its variance.

Ocular Pulse Amplitude and Doppler Waveform Analysis in Glaucoma Patients

PURPOSE: To determine the correlation between ocular blood flow velocities and ocular pulse amplitude (OPA) in glaucoma patients using colour Doppler imaging (CDI) waveform analysis. METHOD: A prospective, observer-masked, case-control study was performed. OPA and blood flow variables from central retinal artery and vein (CRA, CRV), nasal and temporal short posterior ciliary arteries (NPCA, TPCA) and ophthalmic artery (OA) were obtained through dynamic contour tonometry and CDI, respectively. Univariate and multiple regression analyses were performed to explore the correlations between OPA and retrobulbar CDI waveform and systemic cardiovascular parameters (blood pressure, blood pressure amplitude, mean ocular perfusion pressure and peripheral pulse). RESULTS: One hundred and ninety-two patients were included [healthy controls: 55; primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG): 74; normal-tension glaucoma (NTG): 63]. OPA was statistically different between groups (Healthy: 3.17 ± 1.2 mmHg; NTG: 2.58 ± 1.2 mmHg; POAG: 2.60 ± 1.1 mmHg; p < 0.01), but not between the glaucoma groups (p = 0.60). Multiple regression models to explain OPA variance were made for each cohort (healthy: p < 0.001, r = 0.605; NTG: p = 0.003, r = 0.372; POAG: p < 0.001, r = 0.412). OPA was independently associated with retrobulbar CDI parameters in the healthy subjects and POAG patients (healthy CRV resistance index: β = 3.37, CI: 0.16-6.59; healthy NPCA mean systolic/diastolic velocity ratio: β = 1.34, CI: 0.52-2.15; POAG TPCA mean systolic velocity: β = 0.14, CI 0.05-0.23). OPA in the NTG group was associated with diastolic blood pressure and pulse rate (β = -0.04, CI: -0.06 to -0.01; β = -0.04, CI: -0.06 to -0.001, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Vascular-related models provide a better explanation to OPA variance in healthy individuals than in glaucoma patients. The variables that influence OPA seem to be different in healthy, POAG and NTG patients.

Atherogenesis and atherosclerosis in primary antiphospholipid syndrome

ABSTRACT: In the late seventies the term “Haematological Stress Syndrome” defined some haematological abnormalities appearing in the course of acute and chronic disorders, such as raised plasma levels of fibrinogen (FNG) and factor VIII, reduced fibrinolytic activity and hyperviscosity. In the early nineties the “Membrane stress syndrome hypothesis” proposed the unification of the concepts of haematological stress syndrome with those of oxidation, inflammation and immune activation to explain the pathogenesis of the antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) Antiphospholipid antibodies, coagulation, fibrinolysis and thrombosis. This chapter investigated the occurrence of the “Haematological Stress Syndrome” and thrombosis in 144 participants positive for aPL detected by clotting and immune tests. Among the clotting assays for the detection of lupus anticoagulant, dilute Russell's viper venom time better correlated with a history of venous thrombosis than activated partial thromboplastin time (p<0.0002 vs p<0.009) and was the only test correlated with a history of arterial thrombosis (p<0.01). By regression analysis, serum levels of IgG anticardiolipin antibodies (aCL) associated with the number of venous occlusions (p<0.001). With regards to FNG and von Willebrand factor (vWF), the former rose by 36% (95% CI; 21%, 53%) and the latter by 50% (95% CI; 29%, 75%) at the first venous occlusion and remained unchanged after subsequent occlusions. At variance FNG rose by 45% (95% CI; 31%, 60%) per arterial occlusion and vWF by 27% (95% CI; 10%, 47%) per arterial occlusion throughout. The coagulation/fibrinolytic balance was cross-sectionally evaluated on 18 thrombotic PAPS patients, 18 subjects with persistence of idiopathic aPL and in healthy controls. Markers of thrombin generation prothrombin fragment 1+2 (F1+2), thrombin-antithrombin complex (TAT) and of fibrin turnover D-Dimer (D-D) were higher in thrombotic (p=0.006)and non-thrombotic subjects (p=0.0001) than in controls as were those of D-D (p<0.0001 and p=0.003 respectively). TAT levels did not differ. Gender analysed data revealed blunted tPA release (hence a negative venous occlusion test) in thrombotic females but neither in thrombotic males (p=0.01) nor in asymptomatic subjects of either sex. Also, in both patient groups females had higher mean PAI than males (p<0.0002) and control females (p<0.02). The activity of factor XIII (FXIIIa) was evaluated was evaluated in 29 patients with PAPS, 14 persistent carriers of aPL without thrombosis, 24 thrombotic patients with inherited thrombophilia, 28 healthy controls and 32 patients with mitral and aortic valve prosthesis as controls for FXIII only. FXIIIa was highest in PAPS (p=0.001), particularly in patients with multiple (n=12) than single occlusion (p=0.02) and in correlation with PAI (p=0.003) and FNG (p=0.005). Moreover FXIIIa was strongly associated with IgG aCL and IgG anti-2GPI (p=0.005 for both) in the PAPS group and to a lesser degree in the aPL group (FXIIIa with IgG aCL, p=0.02, with IgG anti-2GPI, p=0.04). Altogether these results indicate: 1) a differential relationship of aPL, vWF and FNG with venous and arterial thrombosis; 2) heightened thrombin generation, accelerated fibrin turnover and fibrinolysis abnormalities also in asymptomatic carriers of aPLs; 3) enhanced FXIIIa that may contribute to atherothrombosis via increased fibrin/fibrinogen cross-linking. Lipid profile, lipid peroxidation and anti-lipoprotein antibodies in thrombotic primary antiphospholipid syndrome. Given the atherogenic lipid profile of SLE, the same possibility was explored in PAPS by comparing high-density lipoprotein (HDL), low-density lipoprotein (LDL), total cholesterol (CHO), apolipoprotein AI (ApoAI), apolipoprotein B (ApoB), triglycerides (TG), anti-lipoprotein antibodies, beta-2-glycoprotein I complexed to oxidized low-density lipoprotein (oxLDL-2GPI) and C-reactive protein (CRP) in 34 thrombotic PAPS patients compared to 36 thrombotic patients with inherited thrombophilia (IT), to 18 subjects persistently positive for antiphospholipid antibodies (aPL) with no underlying autoimmune or non-autoimmune disorders and to 28 healthy controls. Average concentrations of HDL (p<0.0001), LDL (p<0.0001), CHO (p=0.0002), ApoAI (p=0.002) were lower in PAPS whereas average TRY was higher (p=0.01) than other groups. Moreover PAPS showed higher IgG anti-HDL (p=0.01) and IgG anti-ApoAI (p<0.0001) as well as greater average oxLDL-2GPI (p=0.001) and CRP (p=0.003). Within PAPS, IgG anti-HDL correlated negatively to HDL (p=0.004) and was an independent predictor of oxLDL-2GPI (p=0.009). HDL and ApoAI correlated negatively with CRP (p=0.001 and p=0.007, respectively). IgG anti-HDL may hamper the antioxidant and anti-inflammatory effect of HDL favouring low-grade inflammation and enhanced oxidation in thrombotic PAPS. Indeed plasma 8-epi-prostaglandin F2α (a very specific marker of lipid peroxidation) was significantly higher in 10 patients with PAPS than 10 age and sex matched healthy subjects (p=0.0002) and strongly related to the titre of plasma IgG aCL (r=0.89, p=0.0004). Hence oxidative stress, a major player in atherogenesis, also characterises PAPS. Nitric oxide and nitrative stress in thrombotic primary antiphosholipid syndrome. Oxidative stress goes hand in hand with nitrative stress and to address the latter plasma nitrotyrosine (NT, marker of nitrative stress), nitrite (NO2-) and nitrate (NO3-) were measured in 46 thrombotic PAPS patients, 21 asymptomatic but persistent carriers of antiphospholipid antibodies (PCaPL), 38 patients with inherited thrombophilia (IT), 33 patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and 29 healthy controls (CTR). Average crude NT was higher in PAPS and SLE (p=0.01) whereas average plasma NO2- was lower in PAPS and average NO3- highest in SLE (p<0.0001). In PAPS, IgG aCL titer and number of vascular occlusions negatively predicted NO2-, (p=0.03 and p=0.001, respectively) whereas arterial occlusions and smoking positively predicted NO3- (p=0.05 and p=0.005). Moreover CRP (an inflammatory marker) positively predicted NT (p=0.004). Nitric oxide metabolites relates to type and number of vascular occlusions and to aPL titers, whereas nitrative stress relates to low grade marker) positively predicted NT (p=0.004). Nitric oxide metabolites relates to type and number of vascular occlusions and to aPL titers, whereas nitrative stress relates to low grade inflammation and both phenomena may have implications for thrombosis and atherosclerosis in PAPS Inflammation and immune activation in thrombotic primary antiphospholipid syndrome. To investigate inflammation and immune activation in thrombotic PAPS high-sensitivity CRP (hs-CRP), serum amyloid A (SAA), oxLDL-2GPI, CRP bound to oxLDL-2GPI (CRP-oxLDL-2GPI) (as inflammatory markers) neopterin (NPT) and soluble CD14 (sCD14) (as immune activation markers) were measured by ELISA in 41 PAPS patients, in 44 patients with inherited thrombophilia (IT) and 39 controls (CTR). Compared to other groups, PAPS presented with higher plasma concentrations of inflammatory, hs-CRP (p=0.0004), SAA (p<0.01), CRP-oxLDL-2GPI (p=0.0004) and immune activation markers, NPT (p<0.0001) and sCD14 (p=0.007). By regression analysis SAA independently predicted thrombosis number (p=0.003) and NPT independently predicted thrombosis type (arterial, p=0.03) and number (p=0.04). These data confirm that low-grade inflammation and immune activation occur and relate to vascular features of PAPS. Antiphosholipid antibodies, haemostatic variables and atherosclerosis in thrombotic primary antiphospholipid syndrome To evaluate whether IgG aCL titre, haemostatic variables and the lipid profile bore any relationship to the intima media thickness (IMT) of carotid arteries high-resolution sonography was applied to the common carotid (CC), carotid bifurcation (CB) and internal carotid (IC) of 42 aPL subjects, 29 with primary thrombotic antiphospholipid syndrome and 13 with persistence of aPL in the absence of any underlying disorder. The following were measured: plasma FNG, vWF, PAI, homocysteine (HC), CHO, TG, HDL, LDL, platelet numbers and aCL of IgG and IgM isotype. By multiple regression analysis, IgG aCL titre independently predicted IMT at all carotid segments examined (p always <0.005). Plasma FNG and HC independently predicted IMT at the CB (p=0.001 and p<0.0001, respectively) and IC (p=0.03 and p<0.0001, respectively). These data strongly support an atherogenic role for IgG aCL in patients with aPL in addition to traditional risk factors. The atherosclerosis hypothesis was investigated in an age and sex-matched case-double-control study including 49 thrombotic PAPS patients (18 M, 31 F, mean age 37 ± 11), 49 thrombotic patients for IT and 49 healthy subjects. Average IMT was always greater in PAPS than control patients (CC: p=0.004, CB: p=0.013, IC: p=0.001). By dividing participants into age tertiles the IMT was greater in the second (CC: p=0.003, CB: p=0.023, IC: p=0.003) and third tertiles (CC: p=0.03, CB: p=0.004, IC: p=0.007). Conclusion: Coagulation activation, fibrinolysis depression, hightened fibrin turnover, oxidative and nitrative stress in parallel with low grade inflammation and immune activation characterise thrombotic PAPS: all these are early atherogenic processes and contribute to the demonstrated premature atherosclerosis that should be considered a clinical feature of PAPS.

Trypanocide treatment among adults with chronic Chagas disease living in Santa Fe city (Argentina), over a mean follow-up of 21 years: parasitological, serological and clinical evolution

The efficacy of treatment with nifurtimox and/or benznidazole among adults with chronic Chagas disease with no previous electrocardiographic disturbances was evaluated over a mean follow-up of 21 years, by means of conventional serology, xenodiagnosis, clinical examination, electrocardiograms and chest X-ray. One hundred and eleven patients, between 17 and 46 years old, were studied: 54 underwent treatment (nifurtimox 27, benznidazole 27) and 57 remained untreated (control group). Xenodiagnosis was performed on 65% of them: 36/38 of the treated and 9/34 of the untreated patients had previous positive xenodiagnosis. Post-treatment, 133 xenodiagnoses were performed on 41 patients, all resulting negative. In the control group, 29 xenodiagnoses were performed on 14 patients; 2 resulted positive. Sera stored during the follow-up were simultaneously analyzed through conventional serology tests (IHA; DA-2ME; IIF). The serological evolution in the treated group was: a) 37% underwent negative seroconversion (nifurtimox 11, benznidazole 9); b) 27.8% decreased titers (nifurtimox 9, benznidazole 6), 9 showed inconclusive final serology (nifurtimox 7, benznidazole 2); c) 35.2% remained positive with constant titers (nifurtimox 7; benznidazole 12). The control group conserved the initial antibody levels during the follow-up. In the clinical evolution, 2/54 (3.7%) of the treated and 9/57 (15.8%) of the untreated patients showed electrocardiographic disturbances attributable to Chagas myocardiopathy, with a statistically relevant difference (p<0.05). Treatment caused deparasitation in at least 37% of the chronically infected adults and a protective effect on their clinical evolution.

Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae): coexistence and susceptibility to temephos, in municipalities with occurrence of dengue and differentiated characteristics of urbanization

INTRODUCTION: The aim of the present study was to verify the coexistence between Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus populations in municipalities of the States of Paraná and Santa Catarina with different urbanization profiles where dengue occurs and evaluate their susceptibility to the organophosphate temephos. METHODS: The number of eggs per ovitrap were counted and incubated for hatching to identify the species. Data analysis of the populations was conducted to determine randomness and aggregation, using the variance-to-mean ratio (index of dispersion). Susceptibility to temephos was evaluated by estimation of the resistance ratios RR50 and RR95. Aedes aegypti samples were compared with the population Rockefeller and Aedes albopictus samples were compared with a population from the State of Santa Catarina and with the Rockefeller population. RESULTS: Coexistence between Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus and the aggregation of their eggs were observed at all the sites analyzed in the State of Paraná. CONCLUSIONS: All the Aedes aegypti populations from the State of Parana showed alteration in susceptibility status to the organophosphate temephos, revealing incipient resistance. Similarly, all the Aedes albopictus populations (States of Paraná and Santa Catarina) presented survival when exposed to the organophosphate temephos.

Evolution of reputation in networks: A mean field game approach

This work models the competitive behaviour of individuals who maximize their own utility managing their network of connections with other individuals. Utility is taken as a synonym of reputation in this model. Each agent has to decide between two variables: the quality of connections and the number of connections. Hence, the reputation of an individual is a function of the number and the quality of connections within the network. On the other hand, individuals incur in a cost when they improve their network of contacts. The initial value of the quality and number of connections of each individual is distributed according to an initial (given) distribution. The competition occurs over continuous time and among a continuum of agents. A mean field game approach is adopted to solve the model, leading to an optimal trajectory for the number and quality of connections for each individual.

Fatores de prognóstico para os resultados de sucesso da fisioterapia multimodal em utentes com dor cervical crónica

RESUMO: Introdução: O conhecimento acerca da influência das características dos indivíduos com dor cervical crónica (DCC) no prognóstico dos resultados alcançados com a Fisioterapia é ainda inconsistente, sendo escassos os estudos desenvolvidos neste âmbito. Objetivo: Este relatório pretende determinar se um modelo baseado em fatores de prognóstico é capaz de prever os resultados de sucesso da Fisioterapia, a curto prazo, em utentes com DCC, ao nível da incapacidade funcional, intensidade da dor e perceção global de melhoria. Metodologia: Trata-se de estudo de coorte prospetivo com 112 participantes. Os utentes foram avaliados na primeira semana de tratamento e sete semanas após o início da intervenção. Os instrumentos utilizados foram o Neck Disability Index–Versão Portuguesa (NDI-PT) e a Escala Numérica da Dor (END) nos dois momentos de avaliação, um Questionário de Caracterização Sociodemográfica e Clínica da Amostra na baseline e a Patient Global Impression Change Scale–Versão Portuguesa (PGIC-PT) no follow-up. As características sociodemográficas e clínicas foram incluídas como potenciais fatores de prognóstico e estes foram definidos com base nas diferenças mínimas clinicamente importantes (DMCI) dos instrumentos NDIPT (DMCI≥6) e END (DMCI≥2) e no critério de pontuação ≥5 na PGIC-PT. A análise dos dados foi realizada através do método de regressão logística (backward conditional procedure) para identificar as associações entre os indicadores e as variáveis de resultado (p<0.05). Resultados: Dos 112 participantes incluídos no estudo, 108 completaram o follow-up (média de idade: 51.76±10.19). No modelo multivariado relativo à incapacidade funcional, os resultados de sucesso encontram-se associados a elevados níveis de incapacidade na baseline (OR=1.123; 95% IC 1.056–1.194) e a duração da dor inferior a 12 meses (OR=2.704; 95% IC 1.138–6.424). Este modelo explica 30.0% da variância da melhoria da funcionalidade e classifica corretamente 74.1% dos utentes (sensibilidade: 75.9%; especificidade: 72.0%). O modelo relativo à intensidade da dor identificou apenas a associação do outcome com níveis elevados de intensidade da dor na baseline (OR=1.321; 95% IC 1.047–1.668), explicando 7.5% da variância da redução da mesma e classificando corretamente 68.2% dos utentes (sensibilidade: 94.4%; especificidade: 16.7%). O modelo final referente à perceção global de melhoria apresentou uma associação com a intensidade da dor na baseline (OR=0.621; 95% IC 0.465–0.829), com a presença de cefaleias e/ou tonturas (OR=2.538; 95% IC 0.987–6.526) e com a duração da dor superior a 12 meses (OR=0.279; 95% IC 0.109–0.719). Este modelo explica 27.5% da variância dos resultados de sucesso para este outcome e classifica corretamente 73.1% dos utentes (sensibilidade: 81.8%; especificidade: 59.5%). Conclusões: Utentes com DCC com elevada incapacidade na baseline e queixas de dor há menos de 12 meses apresentam maior probabilidade de obter melhorias ao nível da incapacidade funcional. Elevados níveis de intensidade da dor na baseline predizem resultados de sucesso na redução da dor após sete semanas de tratamento. Utentes com DCC com baixos níveis de dor na baseline, com cefaleias e/ou tonturas e com queixas de dor há mais de 12 meses apresentam maior probabilidade de obter uma melhor perceção de melhoria.--------------- ABSTRACT:Introduction: The influence of the characteristics of individuals with chronic neck pain (CNP) on the prognosis of physiotherapy outcomes is still inconsistent, there being few studies developed in this context. Aim: This study seeks to determine whether a model based on prognostic factors can predict the short-term physiotherapy successful outcomes in CNP patients, regarding functional disability, pain intensity and perceived recovery. Methodology: This is a prospective cohort study with 112 participants. Patients were assessed during the first week of treatment and seven weeks after the start of the intervention. The instruments used were the Neck Disability Index–Portuguese Version (NDI-PT) and the Numerical Rating Scale (NRS) at both moments of assessment, a Sample Sociodemographic and Clinical Characterization Questionnaire at baseline and Patient Global Impression Change Scale–Portuguese Version (PGIC-PT) at the follow-up. The sociodemographic and clinical characteristics were included as potential predictors of successful outcomes, and these were defined on the basis of minimal clinically important differences (MCID) of NDI-PT (MCID≥6) and END (MCID≥2) and the criteria score ≥5 on the PGIC-PT. Data analysis was performed using logistic regression (backward conditional procedure) to identify associations between predictors and outcomes (p<0.05). Results: Of the 112 participants included in the study, 108 completed the follow-up (mean age: 51.76±10.19). In the multivariate model of functional disability, the successful outcomes are associated with high levels of disability at baseline (OR = 1.123; 95% CI 1.056-1.194), and pain duration shorter than 12 months (OR=2.704; 95% CI 1.138–6.424). This model explains 30.0% of the variance of improved functional capacity and correctly classifies 74.1% of the patients (sensitivity: 75.9%, specificity: 72.0%). The model for pain intensity solely identified an outcome association with high pain intensity at baseline (OR=1.321; 95% CI 1.047-1.668), explaining 7.5% of the variance of pain reduction and correctly classifying 68.2% of the patients (sensitivity: 94.4%, specificity: 16.7%). The final model of perceived recovery showed an association with pain intensity at baseline (OR=0.621; 95% CI 0465-0829), with the presence of headache and/or dizziness (OR=2.538; 95% CI 0.987-6.526) and the duration of pain over 12 months (OR=0.279; 95% CI 0.109-0.719). This model explains 27.5% of the variance of successful outcomes and correctly classifies 73.1% of the patients (sensitivity: 81.8%, specificity: 59.5%). Conclusions: Patients with CNP with high disability at baseline and complaints of pain for less than 12 months are more likely to obtain improvements in functional disability. High levels of pain intensity at baseline predict successful outcomes in pain reduction after seven weeks of treatment. Patients with CNP with low levels of pain at baseline, with headache and/or dizziness and with pain complaints for more than 12 months are more likely to get a better perceived recovery.

Curso clínico da dor lombar crónica após alta da fisioterapia : trajetórias de dor no follow-up aos quatro e seis meses

RESUMO:Introdução: O conhecimento acerca da influência das características dos indivíduos com dor cervical crónica (DCC) no prognóstico dos resultados alcançados com a Fisioterapia é ainda inconsistente, sendo escassos os estudos desenvolvidos neste âmbito. Objetivo: Este relatório pretende determinar se um modelo baseado em fatores de prognóstico é capaz de prever os resultados de sucesso da Fisioterapia, a curto prazo, em utentes com DCC, ao nível da incapacidade funcional, intensidade da dor e perceção global de melhoria. Metodologia: Trata-se de estudo de coorte prospetivo com 112 participantes. Os utentes foram avaliados na primeira semana de tratamento e sete semanas após o início da intervenção. Os instrumentos utilizados foram o Neck Disability Index–Versão Portuguesa (NDI-PT) e a Escala Numérica da Dor (END) nos dois momentos de avaliação, um Questionário de Caracterização Sociodemográfica e Clínica da Amostra na baseline e a Patient Global Impression Change Scale–Versão Portuguesa (PGIC-PT) no follow-up. As características sociodemográficas e clínicas foram incluídas como potenciais fatores de prognóstico e estes foram definidos com base nas diferenças mínimas clinicamente importantes (DMCI) dos instrumentos NDIPT (DMCI≥6) e END (DMCI≥2) e no critério de pontuação ≥5 na PGIC-PT. A análise dos dados foi realizada através do método de regressão logística (backward conditional procedure) para identificar as associações entre os indicadores e as variáveis de resultado (p<0.05). Resultados: Dos 112 participantes incluídos no estudo, 108 completaram o follow-up (média de idade: 51.76±10.19). No modelo multivariado relativo à incapacidade funcional, os resultados de sucesso encontram-se associados a elevados níveis de incapacidade na baseline (OR=1.123; 95% IC 1.056–1.194) e a duração da dor inferior a 12 meses (OR=2.704; 95% IC 1.138–6.424). Este modelo explica 30.0% da variância da melhoria da funcionalidade e classifica corretamente 74.1% dos utentes (sensibilidade: 75.9%; especificidade: 72.0%). O modelo relativo à intensidade da dor identificou apenas a associação do outcome com níveis elevados de intensidade da dor na baseline (OR=1.321; 95% IC 1.047–1.668), explicando 7.5% da variância da redução da mesma e classificando corretamente 68.2% dos utentes (sensibilidade: 94.4%; especificidade: 16.7%). O modelo final referente à perceção global de melhoria apresentou uma associação com a intensidade da dor na baseline (OR=0.621; 95% IC 0.465–0.829), com a presença de cefaleias e/ou tonturas (OR=2.538; 95% IC 0.987–6.526) e com a duração da dor superior a 12 meses (OR=0.279; 95% IC 0.109–0.719). Este modelo explica 27.5% da variância dos resultados de sucesso para este outcome e classifica corretamente 73.1% dos utentes (sensibilidade: 81.8%; especificidade: 59.5%). Conclusões: Utentes com DCC com elevada incapacidade na baseline e queixas de dor há menos de 12 meses apresentam maior probabilidade de obter melhorias ao nível da incapacidade funcional. Elevados níveis de intensidade da dor na baseline predizem resultados de sucesso na redução da dor após sete semanas de tratamento. Utentes com DCC com baixos níveis de dor na baseline, com cefaleias e/ou tonturas e com queixas de dor há mais de 12 meses apresentam maior probabilidade de obter uma melhor perceção de melhoria.-----------ABSTRACT: Introduction: The influence of the characteristics of individuals with chronic neck pain (CNP) on the prognosis of physiotherapy outcomes is still inconsistent, there being few studies developed in this context. Aim: This study seeks to determine whether a model based on prognostic factors can predict the short-term physiotherapy successful outcomes in CNP patients, regarding functional disability, pain intensity and perceived recovery. Methodology: This is a prospective cohort study with 112 participants. Patients were assessed during the first week of treatment and seven weeks after the start of the intervention. The instruments used were the Neck Disability Index–Portuguese Version (NDI-PT) and the Numerical Rating Scale (NRS) at both moments of assessment, a Sample Sociodemographic and Clinical Characterization Questionnaire at baseline and Patient Global Impression Change Scale–Portuguese Version (PGIC-PT) at the follow-up. The sociodemographic and clinical characteristics were included as potential predictors of successful outcomes, and these were defined on the basis of minimal clinically important differences (MCID) of NDI-PT (MCID≥6) and END (MCID≥2) and the criteria score ≥5 on the PGIC-PT. Data analysis was performed using logistic regression (backward conditional procedure) to identify associations between predictors and outcomes (p<0.05). Results: Of the 112 participants included in the study, 108 completed the follow-up (mean age: 51.76±10.19). In the multivariate model of functional disability, the successful outcomes are associated with high levels of disability at baseline (OR = 1.123; 95% CI 1.056-1.194), and pain duration shorter than 12 months (OR=2.704; 95% CI 1.138–6.424). This model explains 30.0% of the variance of improved functional capacity and correctly classifies 74.1% of the patients (sensitivity: 75.9%, specificity: 72.0%). The model for pain intensity solely identified an outcome association with high pain intensity at baseline (OR=1.321; 95% CI 1.047- 1.668), explaining 7.5% of the variance of pain reduction and correctly classifying 68.2% of the patients (sensitivity: 94.4%, specificity: 16.7%). The final model of perceived recovery showed an association with pain intensity at baseline (OR=0.621; 95% CI 0465-0829), with the presence of headache and/or dizziness (OR=2.538; 95% CI 0.987-6.526) and the duration of pain over 12 months (OR=0.279; 95% CI 0.109- 0.719). This model explains 27.5% of the variance of successful outcomes and correctly classifies 73.1% of the patients (sensitivity: 81.8%, specificity: 59.5%). Conclusions: Patients with CNP with high disability at baseline and complaints of pain for less than 12 months are more likely to obtain improvements in functional disability. High levels of pain intensity at baseline predict successful outcomes in pain reduction after seven weeks of treatment. Patients with CNP with low levels of pain at baseline, with headache and/or dizziness and with pain complaints for more than 12 months are more likely to get a better perceived recovery.

Impact of oral health on health-related quality of life : A cross-sectional study

Background: Despite the consensus regarding the existence of a relationship between “impacts on oral health” and “health-related quality of life”, this relationship, considering the latent nature of these variables, is still poorly investigated. Thus, we performed this study in order to determine the magnitude of the impacts of oral health, demographic and symptom/clinical variables on the health-related quality of life in a Brazilian sample of dental patients. Methods: A total of 1,007 adult subjects enrolled in the School of Dentistry of São Paulo State University (UNESP) - Araraquara Campus for dentistry care between September/2012 and April/2013, participated. 72.4 % were female. The mean age was 45.7 (SD = 12.5) years. The Oral Health Impact Profile (OHIP-14) and the Short Form Health Survey (SF-36) were used. The demographic and symptom/clinical variables collected were gender, age, economic status, presence of pain and chronic disease. The impact of studied variables on health-related quality of life were evaluated with a structural equation model, considering the factor “Health” as the central construct. The fit of the model was first analyzed by the evaluation of the goodness of fit indices (χ 2 /df ≤ 2.0, CFI and TLI ≥ 0.90 and RMSEA < 0.10) and the evaluation of the variables’ impact over health-related quality of life was based on the statistical significance of causal paths (β), evaluated by z tests, for a significance level of 5 %. Results: We observed adequate fit of the model to the data (χ 2 /df = 3.55; CFI = 0.95; TLI = 0.94; RMSEA = 0.05). The impacts on oral health explained 28.0 % of the variability of the health-related quality of life construct, while the total variance explained of the model was 39.0 %. For the demographic and symptom/clinical variables, only age, presence of pain and chronic disease showed significant impacts (p < 0.05). Conclusion: The oral health, age, presence of pain and chronic disease of individuals had significant influence on health-related quality of life.

Different doses of exogenous surfactant for treatment of meconium aspiration syndrome in newborn rabbits

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effects of 2 different doses of exogenous surfactant on pulmonary mechanics and on the regularity of pulmonary parenchyma inflation in newborn rabbits. METHOD: Newborn rabbits were submitted to tracheostomy and randomized into 4 study groups: the Control group did not receive any material inside the trachea; the MEC group was instilled with meconium, without surfactant treatment; the S100 and S200 groups were instilled with meconium and were treated with 100 and 200 mg/kg of exogenous surfactant (produced by Instituto Butantan) respectively. Animals from the 4 groups were mechanically ventilated during a 25-minute period. Dynamic compliance, ventilatory pressure, tidal volume, and maximum lung volume (P-V curve) were evaluated. Histological analysis was conducted using the mean linear intercept (Lm), and the lung tissue distortion index (SDI) was derived from the standard deviation of the means of the Lm. One-way analysis of variance was used with a = 0.05. RESULTS: After 25 minutes of ventilation, dynamic compliance (mL/cm H2O · kg) was 0.87 ± 0.07 (Control); 0.49 ± 0.04 (MEC*); 0.67 ± 0.06 (S100); and 0.67 ± 0.08 (S200), and ventilatory pressure (cm H2O) was 9.0 ± 0.9 (Control); 16.5 ± 1.7 (MEC*); 12.4 ± 1.1 (S100); and 12.1 ± 1.5 (S200). Both treated groups had lower Lm values and more homogeneity in the lung parenchyma compared to the MEC group: SDI = 7.5 ± 1.9 (Control); 11.3 ± 2.5 (MEC*), 5.8 ± 1.9 (S100); and 6.7 ± 1.7 (S200) (*P < 0.05 versus all the other groups). CONCLUSIONS: Animals treated with surfactant showed significant improvement in pulmonary mechanics and more regularity of the lung parenchyma in comparison to untreated animals. There was no difference in results after treatment with either of the doses used.

An equity wealth preservation strategy: Following the macro trend

Financial crisis have happened in the past and will continue to do so in the future. In the most recent 2008 crisis, global equities (as measured by the MSCI ACWI index) lost a staggering 54.2% in USD, on the year. During those periods wealth preservation becomes at the top of most investor’s concerns. The purpose of this paper is to develop a strategy that protects the investment during bear markets and significant market corrections, generates capital appreciation, and that can support Millennium BCP’s Wealth Management Unit on their asset allocation procedures. This strategy extends the Dual Momentum approach introduced by Gary Antonacci (2014) in two ways. First, the investable set of securities in the equities space increases from two to four. Besides the US it will comprise the Japanese, European (excl. UK) and EM equity indices. Secondly, it adds a volatility filter as well as three indicators related to the business cycle and the state of the economy, which are relevant to decide on the strategy’s exposure to equities. Overall the results attest the resiliency of the strategy before, during and after historical financial crashes, as it drastically reduces the downside exposure and consistently outperforms the benchmark index by providing higher mean returns with lower variance.

Improving accuracy of inflation forecasts using macroeconomic information

This thesis examines the effects of macroeconomic factors on inflation level and volatility in the Euro Area to improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts with econometric modelling. Inflation aggregates for the EU as well as inflation levels of selected countries are analysed, and the difference between these inflation estimates and forecasts are documented. The research proposes alternative models depending on the focus and the scope of inflation forecasts. I find that models with a Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) in mean process have better explanatory power for inflation variance compared to the regular GARCH models. The significant coefficients are different in EU countries in comparison to the aggregate EU-wide forecast of inflation. The presence of more pronounced GARCH components in certain countries with more stressed economies indicates that inflation volatility in these countries are likely to occur as a result of the stressed economy. In addition, other economies in the Euro Area are found to exhibit a relatively stable variance of inflation over time. Therefore, when analysing EU inflation one have to take into consideration the large differences on country level and focus on those one by one.