Options for a Euro-area fiscal capacity. Bruegel Policy Brief 2013/01, January 2013

Europe has responded to the crisis with strengthened budgetary and macroeconomic surveillance, the creation of the European Stability Mechanism, liquidity provisioning by resilient economies and the European Central Bank and a process towards a banking union. However, a monetary union requires some form of budget for fiscal stabilisation in case of shocks, and as a backstop to the banking union. This paper compares four quantitatively different schemes of fiscal stabilisation and proposes a new scheme based on GDP-indexed bonds. The options considered are: (i) A federal budget with unemployment and corporate taxes shifted to euro-area level; (ii) a support scheme based on deviations from potential output;(iii) an insurance scheme via which governments would issue bonds indexed to GDP, and (iv) a scheme in which access to jointly guaranteed borrowing is combined with gradual withdrawal of fiscal sovereignty. Our comparison is based on strong assumptions. We carry out a preliminary, limited simulation of how the debt-to-GDP ratio would have developed between 2008-14 under the four schemes for Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and an ‘average’ country.The schemes have varying implications in each case for debt sustainability

Land use for England and Wales: evaluation of management options to support 'good ecological status' in surface freshwaters

This paper analyses historic records of agricultural land use and management for England and Wales from 1931 and 1991 and uses export coefficient modelling to hindcast the impact of these practices on the rates of diffuse nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) export to water bodies for each of the major geo-climatic regions of England and Wales. Key trends indicate the importance of animal agriculture as a contributor to the total diffuse agricultural nutrient loading on waters, and the need to bring these sources under control if conditions suitable for sustaining 'Good Ecological Status' under the Water Framework Directive are to be generated. The analysis highlights the importance of measuring changes in nutrient loading in relation to the catchment-specific baseline state for different water bodies. The approach is also used to forecast the likely impact of broad regional scale scenarios on nutrient export to waters and highlights the need to take sensitive land out of production, introduce ceilings on fertilizer use and stocking densities, and controls on agricultural practice in higher risk areas where intensive agriculture is combined with a low intrinsic nutrient retention capacity, although the uncertainties associated with the modelling applied at this scale should be taken into account in the interpretation of model output. The paper advocates the need for a two-tiered approach to nutrient management, combining broad regional policies with targeted management in high risk areas at the catchment and farm scale.

Reduced capacity to sustain positive emotion in major depression reflects diminished maintenance of fronto-striatal brain activation

Anhedonia, the loss of pleasure or interest in previously rewarding stimuli, is a core feature of major depression. While theorists have argued that anhedonia reflects a reduced capacity to experience pleasure, evidence is mixed as to whether anhedonia is caused by a reduction in hedonic capacity. An alternative explanation is that anhedonia is due to the inability to sustain positive affect across time. Using positive images, we used an emotion regulation task to test whether individuals with depression are unable to sustain activation in neural circuits underlying positive affect and reward. While up-regulating positive affect, depressed individuals failed to sustain nucleus accumbens activity over time compared with controls. This decreased capacity was related to individual differences in self-reported positive affect. Connectivity analyses further implicated the fronto-striatal network in anhedonia. These findings support the hypothesis that anhedonia in depressed patients reflects the inability to sustain engagement of structures involved in positive affect and reward.

Building capacity for ageing and disability-related research

Since 1997, EQUAL has supported over forty ageing and disability-related research projects, many of which demonstrating an inclusive design dimension. Some of these projects have had a significant influence on policy and practice. However, less progress has been made in promoting ageing-related research in scientific areas. Building on the experience gained in developing the inclusive design research community, SPARC was created with the aim to provide opportunities for introducing newcomers across a wide range of engineering and biological fields to ageing and disability-related research. Through an awards scheme, SPARC provides financial support, mentoring, editorial assistance and a platform for dissemination and access to international activities. In addition, SPARC organises national and international workshops that showcase the latest research and educates individuals, society and government about the value of ageing and disability-related research.

Short-term memory and the attentional blink: capacity versus content

When people monitor the rapid serial visual presentation (RSVP) of stimuli for two targets (T1 and T2), they often miss T2 if it falls into a time window of about half a second after T1 onset, a phenomenon known as the attentional blink (AB). We found that overall performance in an RSVP task was impaired by a concurrent short-term memory (STM) task and, furthermore, that this effect increased when STM load was higher and when its content was more task relevant. Loading visually defined stimuli and adding articulatory suppression further impaired performance on the RSVP task, but the size of the AB over time (i.e., T1-T2 lag) remained unaffected by load or content. This suggested that at least part of the performance in an RSVP task reflects interference between competing codes within STM, as interference models have held, whereas the AB proper reflects capacity limitations in the transfer to STM, as consolidation models have claimed.

Speech perception and phonological short-term memory capacity in language impairment: preliminary evidence from adolescents with specific language impairment (SLI) and autism spectrum disorders (ASD)

Background: The cognitive bases of language impairment in specific language impairment (SLI) and autism spectrum disorders (ASD) were investigated in a novel non-word comparison task which manipulated phonological short-term memory (PSTM) and speech perception, both implicated in poor non-word repetition. Aims: This study aimed to investigate the contributions of PSTM and speech perception in non-word processing and whether individuals with SLI and ASD plus language impairment (ALI) show similar or different patterns of deficit in these cognitive processes. Method & Procedures: Three groups of adolescents (aged 14–17 years), 14 with SLI, 16 with ALI, and 17 age and non-verbal IQ matched typically developing (TD) controls, made speeded discriminations between non-word pairs. Stimuli varied in PSTM load (two- or four-syllables) and speech perception load (mismatches on a word-initial or word-medial segment). Outcomes & Results: Reaction times showed effects of both non-word length and mismatch position and these factors interacted: four-syllable and word-initial mismatch stimuli resulted in the slowest decisions. Individuals with language impairment showed the same pattern of performance as those with typical development in the reaction time data. A marginal interaction between group and item length was driven by the SLI and ALI groups being less accurate with long items than short ones, a difference not found in the TD group. Conclusions & Implications: Non-word discrimination suggests that there are similarities and differences between adolescents with SLI and ALI and their TD peers. Reaction times appear to be affected by increasing PSTM and speech perception loads in a similar way. However, there was some, albeit weaker, evidence that adolescents with SLI and ALI are less accurate than TD individuals, with both showing an effect of PSTM load. This may indicate, at some level, the processing substrate supporting both PSTM and speech perception is intact in adolescents with SLI and ALI, but also in both there may be impaired access to PSTM resources.

A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities

In this paper, we propose a scenario framework that could provide a scenario “thread” through the different climate research communities (climate change – vulnerability, impact, and adaptation (VIA) and mitigation) in order to provide assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies and other VIA challenges. The scenario framework is organised around a matrix with two main axes: radiative forcing levels and socio-economic conditions. The radiative forcing levels (and the associated climate signal) are described by the new Representative Concentration Pathways. The second axis, socio-economic developments, comprises elements that affect the capacity for mitigation and adaptation, as well as the exposure to climate impacts. The proposed scenarios derived from this framework are limited in number, allow for comparison across various mitigation and adaptation levels, address a range of vulnerability characteristics, provide information across climate forcing and vulnerability states and span a full century time scale. Assessments based on the proposed scenario framework would strengthen cooperation between integrated-assessment modelers, climate modelers and vulnerability, impact and adaptation researchers, and most importantly, facilitate the development of more consistent and comparable research within and across communities.

Demand response from the non-domestic sector: early UK experiences and future opportunities

Demand response is believed by some to become a major contributor towards system balancing in future electricity networks. Shifting or reducing demand at critical moments can reduce the need for generation capacity, help with the integration of renewables, support more efficient system operation and thereby potentially lead to cost and carbon reductions for the entire energy system. In this paper we review the nature of the response resource of consumers from different non-domestic sectors in the UK, based on extensive half hourly demand profiles and observed demand responses. We further explore the potential to increase the demand response capacity through changes in the regulatory and market environment. The analysis suggests that present demand response measures tend to stimulate stand-by generation capacity in preference to load shifting and we propose that extended response times may favour load based demand response, especially in sectors with significant thermal loads.

Using standby generators in support of an electricity network: logistics and experience

Electricity load shifting is becoming a big topic in the world of ‘green’ retail. Marks & Spencer (M&S) aim to become the world’s most sustainable retailer (1) and part of that commitment means contributing to the future electricity network. While intelligent operation of fridges and Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems are a wide area of research, standby generators should be considered too, as they are the most widely adopted form of distributed generation. In this paper, the experience of using standby generators in Northern Ireland to support the grid is shared and the logistics of future projects are discussed. Interactions with maintenance schedules, electricity costs, grid code, staffing and store opening times are discussed as well as the financial implications associated with running generators for grid support.

The anterior temporal lobes support residual comprehension in Wernicke’s aphasia

Wernicke’s aphasia occurs following a stroke to classical language comprehension regions in the left temporoparietal cortex. Consequently, auditory-verbal comprehension is significantly impaired in Wernicke’s aphasia but the capacity to comprehend visually presented materials (written words and pictures) is partially spared. This study used fMRI to investigate the neural basis of written word and picture semantic processing in Wernicke’s aphasia, with the wider aim of examining how the semantic system is altered following damage to the classical comprehension regions. Twelve participants with Wernicke’s aphasia and twelve control participants performed semantic animate-inanimate judgements and a visual height judgement baseline task. Whole brain and ROI analysis in Wernicke’s aphasia and control participants found that semantic judgements were underpinned by activation in the ventral and anterior temporal lobes bilaterally. The Wernicke’s aphasia group displayed an “over-activation” in comparison to control participants, indicating that anterior temporal lobe regions become increasingly influential following reduction in posterior semantic resources. Semantic processing of written words in Wernicke’s aphasia was additionally supported by recruitment of the right anterior superior temporal lobe, a region previously associated with recovery from auditory-verbal comprehension impairments. Overall, the results concord with models which indicate that the anterior temporal lobes are crucial for multimodal semantic processing and that these regions may be accessed without support from classic posterior comprehension regions.

Procedural justice, not absorptive capacity, matters in multinational enterprise ICT transfers

This paper empirically tests the effectiveness of information and communications technology (ICT) knowledge transfer and adoption in the multinational enterprise (MNE) as an issue of critical importance to contemporary MNE functioning. In contrast to mainstream thinking on absorptive capacity, but in line with prevailing international business theory, our research supports the proposition that perceptions of procedural justice, rather than absorptive capacity, determine effectiveness, especially in cases of high tacit knowledge transfers. Data was collected from senior ICT representatives in 86 Canadian subsidiaries of foreign owned MNEs. Each of these subsidiaries recently experienced a significant ICT transfer imposed by the parent organization. Support was found for the main propositions: Procedural justice significantly predicted successful ICT transfer and adoption, while absorptive capacity was not significant. These findings are consistent even when knowledge tacitness was high. The perceived success of the ICT transfer as well as its adoption varied widely across these firms. The potential reasons for this divergence in effectiveness are manifold, but our findings suggest that in situations of substantial knowledge tacitness, a higher level of procedural justice, rather than a higher level of absorptive capacity, is critical to effective transfer and adoption.

Variety matters: adaptive genetic diversity and parasite load in two mouse opossums from the Brazilian Atlantic forest

The adaptive potential of a species to a changing environment and in disease defence is primarily based on genetic variation. Immune genes, such as genes of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC), may thereby be of particular importance. In marsupials, however, there is very little knowledge about natural levels and functional importance of MHC polymorphism, despite their key role in the mammalian evolution. In a previous study, we discovered remarkable differences in the MHC class II diversity between two species of mouse opossums (Gracilinanus microtarsus, Marmosops incanus) from the Brazilian Atlantic forest, which is one of the most endangered hotspots for biodiversity conservation. Since the main forces in generating MHC diversity are assumed to be pathogens, we investigated in this study gastrointestinal parasite burden and functional associations between the individual MHC constitution and parasite load. We tested two contrasting scenarios, which might explain differences in MHC diversity between species. We predicted that a species with low MHC diversity would either be under relaxed selection pressure by low parasite diversity (`Evolutionary equilibrium` scenario), or there was a recent loss in MHC diversity leading to a lack of resistance alleles and increased parasite burden (`Unbalanced situation` scenario). In both species it became apparent that the MHC class II is functionally important in defence against gastrointestinal helminths, which was shown here for the first time in marsupials. On the population level, parasite diversity did not markedly differ between the two host species. However, we did observe considerable differences in the individual parasite load (parasite prevalence and infection intensity): while M. incanus revealed low MHC DAB diversity and high parasite load, G. microtarsus showed a tenfold higher population wide MHC DAB diversity and lower parasite burden. These results support the second scenario of an unbalanced situation.

Effect of adding CaO to ZrO(2) support on nickel catalyst activity in dry reforming of methane

Nickel catalysts with a load of 5 wt% Ni, supported on pure ZrO(2) and ZrO(2) stabilized with 4, 8 and 14 mol% CaO, were prepared by the polymerization method. The samples were characterized by X-ray diffraction (XRD), temperature-programmed reduction with hydrogen (TPR-H(2)), specific surface area (BET) and impedance spectroscopy (IS) and tested in the carbon dioxide reforming of methane. The XRD patterns showed the presence of the oxide precursor (NiO) and the tetragonal phase of CaO-ZrO(2) solid solutions. According to the TPR-H(2) analysis, the reduction of various NiO species was influenced by the support composition. The electrical properties of the support have a proportional effect on the catalytic activities. Catalytic tests were done at 800 degrees C for 6 h and the composition of the gaseous products and the catalytic conversion depended on the CaO-ZrO(2) solid solution composition and its influence on supported NiO species. A direct relation was found between the variation in the electrical conductivity of the support, the nickel species supported on it and the performance in the catalytic tests. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effect of the Y(2)O(3)-ZrO(2) support composition on nickel catalyst evaluated in dry reforming of methane

Nickel catalysts with a load of 5 wt.% Ni, supported on pure ZrO(2) and ZrO(2) stabilized with 4 mol%, 8 mol% and 12 mol% of Y(2)O(3), were prepared by the polymerization method. The samples were characterized by X-ray diffraction (XRD), temperature-programmed reduction with hydrogen (TPR-H(2)), specific surface area (BET) and electronic paramagnetic resonance (EPR) and tested as catalysts for carbon dioxide reforming of methane. The XRD patterns showed the presence of the oxide precursor (NiO) and the tetragonal phase of a Y(2)O(3)-ZrO(2) solid solution. According to the TPR-H(2) analysis, the reduction of various NiO species was influenced by the composition of the support. Catalytic tests were conducted at 800 degrees C for 6 h, and the composition of the gaseous products and the catalytic conversion rate depended on the composition of the Y(2)O(3)-ZrO(2) solid solution and its influence on the supported NiO species. A direct relation was observed between the variation in the support, the nickel species supported on it and the performance in the catalytic tests. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The effectiveness of proactive telephone support provided to breastfeeding mothers of preterm infants : study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

Background: Although breast milk has numerous benefits for infants' development, with greater effects in those born preterm (at < 37 gestational weeks), mothers of preterm infants have shorter breastfeeding duration than mothers of term infants. One of the explanations proposed is the difficulties in the transition from a Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU) to the home environment. A person-centred proactive telephone support intervention after discharge from NICU is expected to promote mothers' sense of trust in their own capacity and thereby facilitate breastfeeding. Methods/design: A multicentre randomized controlled trial has been designed to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of person-centred proactive telephone support on breastfeeding outcomes for mothers of preterm infants. Participating mothers will be randomized to either an intervention group or control group. In the intervention group person-centred proactive telephone support will be provided, in which the support team phones the mother daily for up to 14 days after hospital discharge. In the control group, mothers are offered a person-centred reactive support where mothers can phone the breastfeeding support team up to day 14 after hospital discharge. The intervention group will also be offered the same reactive telephone support as the control group. A stratified block randomization will be used; group allocation will be by high or low socioeconomic status and by NICU. Recruitment will be performed continuously until 1116 mothers (I: 558 C: 558) have been included. Primary outcome: proportion of mothers exclusively breastfeeding at eight weeks after discharge. Secondary outcomes: proportion of breastfeeding (exclusive, partial, none and method of feeding), mothers satisfaction with breastfeeding, attachment, stress and quality of life in mothers/partners at eight weeks after hospital discharge and at six months postnatal age. Data will be collected by researchers blind to group allocation for the primary outcome. A qualitative evaluation of experiences of receiving/providing the intervention will also be undertaken with mothers and staff. Discussion: This paper presents the rationale, study design and protocol for a RCT providing person-centred proactive telephone support to mothers of preterm infants. Furthermore, with a health economic evaluation, the cost-effectiveness of the intervention will be assessed. Trial registration: NCT01806480