Quantification of Myocardial Perfusion Using 13N-ammonia PET: a Cross-Comparison Study on Analysis Software Packages - Carimas, PMOD and FlowQuant

Aim. Several software packages (SWP) and models have been released for quantification of myocardial perfusion (MP). Although they all are validated against something, the question remains how well their values agree. The present analysis focused on cross-comparison of three SWP for MP quantification of 13N-ammonia PET studies. Materials & Methods. 48 rest and stress MP 13N-ammonia PET studies of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) patients (Sciagrà et al., 2009) were analysed with three SW packages - Carimas, PMOD, and FlowQuant - by three observers blinded to the results of each other. All SWP implement the one-tissue-compartment model (1TCM, DeGrado et al. 1996), and first two - the two-tissue-compartment model (2TCM, Hutchins et al. 1990) as well. Linear mixed model for the repeated measures was fitted to the data. Where appropriate we used Bland-Altman plots as well. The reproducibility was assessed on global, regional and segmental levels. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC), differences between the SWPs and between models were obtained. ICC≥0.75 indicated excellent reproducibility, 0.4≤ICC<0.75 indicated fair to good reproducibility, ICC<0.4 - poor reproducibility (Rosner, 2010). Results. When 1TCM MP values were compared, the SW agreement on global and regional levels was excellent, except for Carimas vs. PMOD at RCA: ICC=0.715 and for PMOD vs. FlowQuant at LCX:ICC=0.745 which were good. In segmental analysis in five segments: 7,12,13, 16, and 17 the agreement between all SWP was excellent; in the remaining 12 segments the agreement varied between the compared SWP. Carimas showed excellent agreement with FlowQuant in 13 segments and good in four - 1, 5, 6, 11: 0.687≤ICCs≤0.73; Carimas had excellent agreement with PMOD in 11 segments, good in five_4, 9, 10, 14, 15: 0.682≤ICCs≤0.737, and poor in segment 3: ICC=0.341. PMOD had excellent agreement with FlowQuant in eight segments and substantial-to-good in nine_1, 2, 3, 5, 6,8-11: 0.585≤ICCs≤0.738. Agreement between Carimas and PMOD for 2TCM was good at a global level: ICC=0.745, excellent at LCX (0.780) and RCA (0.774), good at LAD (0.662); agreement was excellent for ten segments, fair-to-substantial for segments 2, 3, 8, 14, 15 (0.431≤ICCs≤0.681), poor for segments 4 (0.384) and 17 (0.278). Conclusions. The three SWP used by different operators to analyse 13N-ammonia PET MP studies provide results that agree well at a global level, regional levels, and mostly well even at a segmental level. Agreement is better for 1TCM. Poor agreement at segments 4 and 17 for 2TCM needs further clarification.

Social and medical vulnerability factors of frequent users at the emergency department: a case-control study

BACKGROUND: Up to 5% of patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) four or more times within a 12 month period represent 21% of total ED visits. In this study we sought to characterize social and medical vulnerability factors of ED frequent users (FUs) and to explore if these factors hold simultaneously. METHODS: We performed a case-control study at Lausanne University Hospital, Switzerland. Patients over 18 years presenting to the ED at least once within the study period (April 2008 toMarch 2009) were included. FUs were defined as patients with four or more ED visits within the previous 12 months. Outcome data were extracted from medical records of the first ED attendance within the study period. Outcomes included basic demographics and social variables, ED admission diagnosis, somatic and psychiatric days hospitalized over 12 months, and having a primary care physician.We calculated the percentage of FUs and non-FUs having at least one social and one medical vulnerability factor. The four chosen social factors included: unemployed and/or dependence on government welfare, institutionalized and/or without fixed residence, either separated, divorced or widowed, and under guardianship. The fourmedical vulnerability factors were: ≥6 somatic days hospitalized, ≥1 psychiatric days hospitalized, ≥5 clinical departments used (all three factors measured over 12 months), and ED admission diagnosis of alcohol and/or drug abuse. Univariate and multivariate logistical regression analyses allowed comparison of two JGIM ABSTRACTS S391 random samples of 354 FUs and 354 non-FUs (statistical power 0.9, alpha 0.05 for all outcomes except gender, country of birth, and insurance type). RESULTS: FUs accounted for 7.7% of ED patients and 24.9% of ED visits. Univariate logistic regression showed that FUs were older (mean age 49.8 vs. 45.2 yrs, p=0.003),more often separated and/or divorced (17.5%vs. 13.9%, p=0.029) or widowed (13.8% vs. 8.8%, p=0.029), and either unemployed or dependent on government welfare (31.3% vs. 13.3%, p<0.001), compared to non-FUs. FUs cumulated more days hospitalized over 12 months (mean number of somatic days per patient 1.0 vs. 0.3, p<0.001; mean number of psychiatric days per patient 0.12 vs. 0.03, p<0.001). The two groups were similar regarding gender distribution (females 51.7% vs. 48.3%). The multivariate linear regression model was based on the six most significant factors identified by univariate analysis The model showed that FUs had more social problems, as they were more likely to be institutionalized or not have a fixed residence (OR 4.62; 95% CI, 1.65 to 12.93), and to be unemployed or dependent on government welfare (OR 2.03; 95% CI, 1.31 to 3.14) compared to non-FUs. FUs were more likely to need medical care, as indicated by involvement of≥5 clinical departments over 12 months (OR 6.2; 95%CI, 3.74 to 10.15), having an ED admission diagnosis of substance abuse (OR 3.23; 95% CI, 1.23 to 8.46) and having a primary care physician (OR 1.70;95%CI, 1.13 to 2.56); however, they were less likely to present with an admission diagnosis of injury (OR 0.64; 95% CI, 0.40 to 1.00) compared to non-FUs. FUs were more likely to combine at least one social with one medical vulnerability factor (38.4% vs. 12.1%, OR 7.74; 95% CI 5.03 to 11.93). CONCLUSIONS: FUs were more likely than non-FUs to have social and medical vulnerability factors and to have multiple factors in combination.

Short-term Hydropower Planning System

The Thesis gives a decision support framework that has significant impact on the economic performance and viability of a hydropower company. The studyaddresses the short-term hydropower planning problem in the Nordic deregulated electricity market. The basics of the Nordic electricity market, trading mechanisms, hydropower system characteristics and production planning are presented in the Thesis. The related modelling theory and optimization methods are covered aswell. The Thesis provides a mixed integer linear programming model applied in asuccessive linearization method for optimal bidding and scheduling decisions inthe hydropower system operation within short-term horizon. A scenario based deterministic approach is exploited for modelling uncertainty in market price and inflow. The Thesis proposes a calibration framework to examine the physical accuracy and economic optimality of the decisions suggested by the model. A calibration example is provided with data from a real hydropower system using a commercial modelling application with the mixed integer linear programming solver CPLEX.

On Modelling, System Identification and Control of Servo-Systems with a Flexible Load

The present study was done with two different servo-systems. In the first system, a servo-hydraulic system was identified and then controlled by a fuzzy gainscheduling controller. The second servo-system, an electro-magnetic linear motor in suppressing the mechanical vibration and position tracking of a reference model are studied by using a neural network and an adaptive backstepping controller respectively. Followings are some descriptions of research methods. Electro Hydraulic Servo Systems (EHSS) are commonly used in industry. These kinds of systems are nonlinearin nature and their dynamic equations have several unknown parameters.System identification is a prerequisite to analysis of a dynamic system. One of the most promising novel evolutionary algorithms is the Differential Evolution (DE) for solving global optimization problems. In the study, the DE algorithm is proposed for handling nonlinear constraint functionswith boundary limits of variables to find the best parameters of a servo-hydraulic system with flexible load. The DE guarantees fast speed convergence and accurate solutions regardless the initial conditions of parameters. The control of hydraulic servo-systems has been the focus ofintense research over the past decades. These kinds of systems are nonlinear in nature and generally difficult to control. Since changing system parameters using the same gains will cause overshoot or even loss of system stability. The highly non-linear behaviour of these devices makes them ideal subjects for applying different types of sophisticated controllers. The study is concerned with a second order model reference to positioning control of a flexible load servo-hydraulic system using fuzzy gainscheduling. In the present research, to compensate the lack of dampingin a hydraulic system, an acceleration feedback was used. To compare the results, a pcontroller with feed-forward acceleration and different gains in extension and retraction is used. The design procedure for the controller and experimental results are discussed. The results suggest that using the fuzzy gain-scheduling controller decrease the error of position reference tracking. The second part of research was done on a PermanentMagnet Linear Synchronous Motor (PMLSM). In this study, a recurrent neural network compensator for suppressing mechanical vibration in PMLSM with a flexible load is studied. The linear motor is controlled by a conventional PI velocity controller, and the vibration of the flexible mechanism is suppressed by using a hybrid recurrent neural network. The differential evolution strategy and Kalman filter method are used to avoid the local minimum problem, and estimate the states of system respectively. The proposed control method is firstly designed by using non-linear simulation model built in Matlab Simulink and then implemented in practical test rig. The proposed method works satisfactorily and suppresses the vibration successfully. In the last part of research, a nonlinear load control method is developed and implemented for a PMLSM with a flexible load. The purpose of the controller is to track a flexible load to the desired position reference as fast as possible and without awkward oscillation. The control method is based on an adaptive backstepping algorithm whose stability is ensured by the Lyapunov stability theorem. The states of the system needed in the controller are estimated by using the Kalman filter. The proposed controller is implemented and tested in a linear motor test drive and responses are presented.

Clinical effectiveness of direct anterior restorations-A meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: This is the first meta-analysis on the efficacy of composite resin restorations in anterior teeth. The objective of the present meta-analysis was to verify whether specific material classes, tooth conditioning methods and operational procedures influence the result for Class III and Class IV restorations. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The database SCOPUS and PubMed were searched for clinical trials on anterior resin composites without restricting the search to the year of publication. The inclusion criteria were: (1) prospective clinical trial with at least 2 years of observation; (2) minimal number of restorations at last recall=20; (3) report on drop-out rate; (4) report of operative technique and materials used in the trial, and (5) utilization of Ryge or modified Ryge evaluation criteria. For the statistical analysis, a linear mixed model was used with random effects to account for the heterogeneity between the studies. p-Values smaller than 0.05 were considered to be significant. RESULTS: Of the 84 clinical trials, 21 studies met the inclusion criteria, 14 of them for Class III restorations, 6 for Class IV restorations and 1 for closure of diastemata; the latter was included in the Class IV group. Twelve of the 21 studies started before 1991 and 18 before 2001. The estimated median overall success rate (without replacement) after 10 years for Class III composite resin restorations was 95% and for Class IV restorations 90%. The main reason for the replacement of Class IV restorations was bulk fractures, which occurred significantly more frequently with microfilled composites than with hybrid and macrofilled composites. Caries adjacent to restorations was infrequent in most studies and accounted only for about 2.5% of all replaced restorations after 10 years irrespective of the cavity class. Class III restorations with glass ionomer derivates suffered significantly more loss of anatomical form than did fillings with other types of material. When the enamel was acid-etched and no bonding agent was applied, significantly more restorations showed marginal staining and detectable margins compared to enamel etching with enamel bonding or the total etch technique; fillings with self-etching systems were in between of these two outcome variables. Bevelling of the enamel was associated with a significantly reduced deterioration of the anatomical form compared to no bevelling but not with less marginal staining or less detectable margins. The type of isolation (absolute/relative) had a statistically significant influence on marginal caries which, however, might be a random finding.

Lossless Compression Methods for Multispectral Images: Development and Comparisons

Main purpose of this thesis is to introduce a new lossless compression algorithm for multispectral images. Proposed algorithm is based on reducing the band ordering problem to the problem of finding a minimum spanning tree in a weighted directed graph, where set of the graph vertices corresponds to multispectral image bands and the arcs’ weights have been computed using a newly invented adaptive linear prediction model. The adaptive prediction model is an extended unification of 2–and 4–neighbour pixel context linear prediction schemes. The algorithm provides individual prediction of each image band using the optimal prediction scheme, defined by the adaptive prediction model and the optimal predicting band suggested by minimum spanning tree. Its efficiency has been compared with respect to the best lossless compression algorithms for multispectral images. Three recently invented algorithms have been considered. Numerical results produced by these algorithms allow concluding that adaptive prediction based algorithm is the best one for lossless compression of multispectral images. Real multispectral data captured from an airplane have been used for the testing.

Accuracy and Precision of Head Motion Information in Multi-Channel Free Induction Decay Navigators for Magnetic Resonance Imaging.

Free induction decay (FID) navigators were found to qualitatively detect rigid-body head movements, yet it is unknown to what extent they can provide quantitative motion estimates. Here, we acquired FID navigators at different sampling rates and simultaneously measured head movements using a highly accurate optical motion tracking system. This strategy allowed us to estimate the accuracy and precision of FID navigators for quantification of rigid-body head movements. Five subjects were scanned with a 32-channel head coil array on a clinical 3T MR scanner during several resting and guided head movement periods. For each subject we trained a linear regression model based on FID navigator and optical motion tracking signals. FID-based motion model accuracy and precision was evaluated using cross-validation. FID-based prediction of rigid-body head motion was found to be with a mean translational and rotational error of 0.14±0.21 mm and 0.08±0.13(°) , respectively. Robust model training with sub-millimeter and sub-degree accuracy could be achieved using 100 data points with motion magnitudes of ±2 mm and ±1(°) for translation and rotation. The obtained linear models appeared to be subject-specific as inter-subject application of a "universal" FID-based motion model resulted in poor prediction accuracy. The results show that substantial rigid-body motion information is encoded in FID navigator signal time courses. Although, the applied method currently requires the simultaneous acquisition of FID signals and optical tracking data, the findings suggest that multi-channel FID navigators have a potential to complement existing tracking technologies for accurate rigid-body motion detection and correction in MRI.

Health-related quality-of-life in patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma in the FIRST trial: lenalidomide plus low-dose dexamethasone versus melphalan, prednisone, thalidomide.

We compared the health-related quality-of-life of patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma aged over 65 years or transplant-ineligible in the pivotal, phase III FIRST trial. Patients received: i) continuous lenalidomide and low-dose dexamethasone until disease progression; ii) fixed cycles of lenalidomide and low-dose dexamethasone for 18 months; or iii) fixed cycles of melphalan, prednisone, thalidomide for 18 months. Data were collected using the validated questionnaires (QLQ-MY20, QLQ-C30, and EQ-5D). The analysis focused on the EQ-5D utility value and six domains pre-selected for their perceived clinical relevance. Lenalidomide and low-dose dexamethasone, and melphalan, prednisone, thalidomide improved patients' health-related quality-of-life from baseline over the duration of the study across all pre-selected domains of the QLQ-C30 and EQ-5D. In the QLQ-MY20, lenalidomide and low-dose dexamethasone demonstrated a significantly greater reduction in the Disease Symptoms domain compared with melphalan, prednisone, thalidomide at Month 3, and significantly lower scores for QLQ-MY20 Side Effects of Treatment at all post-baseline assessments except Month 18. Linear mixed-model repeated-measures analyses confirmed the results observed in the cross-sectional analysis. Continuous lenalidomide and low-dose dexamethasone delays disease progression versus melphalan, prednisone, thalidomide and has been associated with a clinically meaningful improvement in health-related quality-of-life. These results further establish continuous lenalidomide and low-dose dexamethasone as a new standard of care for initial therapy of myeloma by demonstrating superior health-related quality-of-life during treatment, compared with melphalan, prednisone, thalidomide.

Meta-analysis of the influence of bonding parameters on the clinical outcome of tooth-colored cervical restorations

PURPOSE: To meta-analyze the literature on the clinical performance of Class V restorations to assess the factors that influence retention, marginal integrity, and marginal discoloration of cervical lesions restored with composite resins, glass-ionomer-cement-based materials [glass-ionomer cement (GIC) and resin-modified glass ionomers (RMGICs)], and polyacid-modified resin composites (PMRC). MATERIALS AND METHODS: The English literature was searched (MEDLINE and SCOPUS) for prospective clinical trials on cervical restorations with an observation period of at least 18 months. The studies had to report about retention, marginal discoloration, marginal integrity, and marginal caries and include a description of the operative technique (beveling of enamel, roughening of dentin, type of isolation). Eighty-one studies involving 185 experiments for 47 adhesives matched the inclusion criteria. The statistical analysis was carried out by using the following linear mixed model: log (-log (Y /100)) = β + α log(T ) + error with β = log(λ), where β is a summary measure of the non-linear deterioration occurring in each experiment, including a random study effect. RESULTS: On average, 12.3% of the cervical restorations were lost, 27.9% exhibited marginal discoloration, and 34.6% exhibited deterioration of marginal integrity after 5 years. The calculation of the clinical index was 17.4% of failures after 5 years and 32.3% after 8 years. A higher variability was found for retention loss and marginal discoloration. Hardly any secondary caries lesions were detected, even in the experiments with a follow-up time longer than 8 years. Restorations placed using rubber-dam in teeth whose dentin was roughened showed a statistically significantly higher retention rate than those placed in teeth with unprepared dentin or without rubber-dam (p < 0.05). However, enamel beveling had no influence on any of the examined variables. Significant differences were found between pairs of adhesive systems and also between pairs of classes of adhesive systems. One-step self-etching had a significantly worse clinically index than two-step self-etching and three-step etch-and-rinse (p = 0.026 and p = 0.002, respectively). CONCLUSION: The clinical performance is significantly influenced by the type of adhesive system and/or the adhesive class to which the system belongs. Whether the dentin/enamel is roughened or not and whether rubberdam isolation is used or not also significantly influenced the clinical performance. Composite resin restorations placed with two-step self-etching and three-step etch-and-rinse adhesive systems should be preferred over onestep self-etching adhesive systems, GIC-based materials, and PMRCs.

The effect of skewness and kurtosis on the Kenward-Roger approximation when group distributions differ

This study examined the independent effect of skewness and kurtosis on the robustness of the linear mixed model (LMM), with the Kenward-Roger (KR) procedure, when group distributions are different, sample sizes are small, and sphericity cannot be assumed. Methods: A Monte Carlo simulation study considering a split-plot design involving three groups and four repeated measures was performed. Results: The results showed that when group distributions are different, the effect of skewness on KR robustness is greater than that of kurtosis for the corresponding values. Furthermore, the pairings of skewness and kurtosis with group size were found to be relevant variables when applying this procedure. Conclusions: With sample sizes of 45 and 60, KR is a suitable option for analyzing data when the distributions are: (a) mesokurtic and not highly or extremely skewed, and (b) symmetric with different degrees of kurtosis. With total sample sizes of 30, it is adequate when group sizes are equal and the distributions are: (a) mesokurtic and slightly or moderately skewed, and sphericity is assumed; and (b) symmetric with a moderate or high/extreme violation of kurtosis. Alternative analyses should be considered when the distributions are highly or extremely skewed and samples sizes are small.

Association between frailty and delirium in older adult patients discharged from hospital.

BACKGROUND: Delirium and frailty - both potentially reversible geriatric syndromes - are seldom studied together, although they often occur jointly in older patients discharged from hospitals. This study aimed to explore the relationship between delirium and frailty in older adults discharged from hospitals. METHODS: Of the 221 patients aged >65 years, who were invited to participate, only 114 gave their consent to participate in this study. Delirium was assessed using the confusion assessment method, in which patients were classified dichotomously as delirious or nondelirious according to its algorithm. Frailty was assessed using the Edmonton Frailty Scale, which classifies patients dichotomously as frail or nonfrail. In addition to the sociodemographic characteristics, covariates such as scores from the Mini-Mental State Examination, Instrumental Activities of Daily Living scale, and Cumulative Illness Rating Scale for Geriatrics and details regarding polymedication were collected. A multidimensional linear regression model was used for analysis. RESULTS: Almost 20% of participants had delirium (n=22), and 76.3% were classified as frail (n=87); 31.5% of the variance in the delirium score was explained by frailty (R (2)=0.315). Age; polymedication; scores of the Confusion Assessment Method (CAM), instrumental activities of daily living, and Cumulative Illness Rating Scale for Geriatrics; and frailty increased the predictability of the variance of delirium by 32% to 64% (R (2)=0.64). CONCLUSION: Frailty is strongly related to delirium in older patients after discharge from the hospital.

Patterns of impact resulting from a 'sit less, move more' web-based program in sedentary office employees

Purpose Encouraging office workers to ‘sit less and move more’ encompasses two public health priorities. However, there is little evidence on the effectiveness of workplace interventions for reducing sitting, even less about the longer term effects of such interventions and still less on dual-focused interventions. This study assessed the short and mid-term impacts of a workplace web-based intervention (Walk@WorkSpain, W@WS; 2010-11) on self-reported sitting time, step counts and physical risk factors (waist circumference, BMI, blood pressure) for chronic disease. Methods Employees at six Spanish university campuses (n=264; 42±10 years; 171 female) were randomly assigned by worksite and campus to an Intervention (used W@WS; n=129; 87 female) or a Comparison group (maintained normal behavior; n=135; 84 female). This phased, 19-week program aimed to decrease occupational sitting time through increased incidental movement and short walks. A linear mixed model assessed changes in outcome measures between the baseline, ramping (8 weeks), maintenance (11 weeks) and followup (two months) phases for Intervention versus Comparison groups.A significant 2 (group) × 2 (program phases) interaction was found for self-reported occupational sitting (F[3]=7.97, p=0.046), daily step counts (F[3]=15.68, p=0.0013) and waist circumference (F[3]=11.67, p=0.0086). The Intervention group decreased minutes of daily occupational sitting while also increasing step counts from baseline (446±126; 8,862±2,475) through ramping (+425±120; 9,345±2,435), maintenance (+422±123; 9,638±3,131) and follow-up (+414±129; 9,786±3,205). In the Comparison group, compared to baseline (404±106), sitting time remained unchanged through ramping and maintenance, but decreased at follow-up (-388±120), while step counts diminished across all phases. The Intervention group significantly reduced waist circumference by 2.1cms from baseline to follow-up while the Comparison group reduced waist circumference by 1.3cms over the same period. Conclusions W@WSis a feasible and effective evidence-based intervention that can be successfully deployed with sedentary employees to elicit sustained changes on “sitting less and moving more”.

Importância da logística da via de síntese em Química Verde

The role of the logistics in the design of synthetic pathways aimed at greenish is discussed. The influence on costs (of reagents, solvents and total), as well as on atomic productivity green metrics (atomic economy and E factor), of the position along the pathway of a step with low yield, or involving high dilution of the reagents or expensive reagents, has been evaluated by calculations on a linear pathway model. The results show the economic importance of Green Chemistry and provide useful information for pathway design or improvement.

Polymeeripinnoitteen aiheuttamat itseherätteiset värähtelyt nipillisessä telasysteemissä

Lukuisissa teollisuussovelluksissa materiaalien, kuten paperin ja teräslevyjen, muokkaamiseen käytettävät pyörivät nippitelat kärsivät aina erilaisten herätteiden synnyttämistä mekaanisista värähtelyistä, jotka voivat aiheuttaa virheitä valmistettaviin tuotteisiin. Tässä työssä tutkittiin viskoelastisia polymeerejä ja polymeeripinnoitteen nipilliseen telasysteemiin synnyttämiä haitallisia itseherätteisiä värähtelyjä. Työn polymeerejä käsittelevässä kirjallisuusosassa luotiin katsaus amorfisten polymeerien fysikaalisiin ominaisuuksiin. Kokeellisessa osuudessa tutkittiin tarkemmin kahden amorfisen telapinnoitepolymeerin termoreologisia ja mekaanisia ominaisuuksia suoritettujen DMTA-mittausten perusteella. Sovittamalla toisen polymeerin master-käyrään yleistetty lineaarisen standardiaineen malli saatiin selville polymeerin mekaaniset parametrit ja approksimaatio sen relaksaatiospektrille. Telapinnoitteen nipilliseen systeemiin synnyttämiä itseherätteisiä värähtelyjä ja niiden seurauksia tarkasteltiin kahdelle telalle ja polymeeripinnoitteelle kehitetyn analyyttisen mallin ja numeeristen laskujen avulla. Pinnoite mallinnettiin lineaarisen standardiaineen mukaisesti. Telasysteemin parametrit määritettiin DMTA-mittaustuloksista ja systeemiä vastaavasta koelaitteesta kokeellisella moodianalyysillä ja elementtimenetelmällä. Numeerisesta stabiilisuusanalyysistä ja liikeyhtälöiden integroinneista saadut tulokset kertovat telapinnoitteen aaltomaisista deformaatiomuodoista ja niiden synnyttämistä taajuusalueittain esiintyvistä epästabiileista värähtelyistä. Telasysteemi on epästabiili pinnoitedeformaatiokuvion systeemiin aiheuttaman herätevoiman taajuuden ollessa lähellä systeemin korkeampaa ominaistaajuutta. Numeerisista tuloksista voitiin ennustaa nopean ja hitaan barringin olemassaolo.

Computational modeling for irrigated agriculture planning. Part II: risk analysis

Techniques of evaluation of risks coming from inherent uncertainties to the agricultural activity should accompany planning studies. The risk analysis should be carried out by risk simulation using techniques as the Monte Carlo method. This study was carried out to develop a computer program so-called P-RISCO for the application of risky simulations on linear programming models, to apply to a case study, as well to test the results comparatively to the @RISK program. In the risk analysis it was observed that the average of the output variable total net present value, U, was considerably lower than the maximum U value obtained from the linear programming model. It was also verified that the enterprise will be front to expressive risk of shortage of water in the month of April, what doesn't happen for the cropping pattern obtained by the minimization of the irrigation requirement in the months of April in the four years. The scenario analysis indicated that the sale price of the passion fruit crop exercises expressive influence on the financial performance of the enterprise. In the comparative analysis it was verified the equivalence of P-RISCO and @RISK programs in the execution of the risk simulation for the considered scenario.