929 resultados para likelihood ratio test


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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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This is an ecological, analytical and retrospective study comprising the 645 municipalities in the State of Sao Paulo, the scope of which was to determine the relationship between socioeconomic, demographic variables and the model of care in relation to infant mortality rates in the period from 1998 to 2008. The ratio of average annual change for each indicator per stratum coverage was calculated. Infant mortality was analyzed according to the model for repeated measures over time, adjusted for the following correction variables: the city's population, proportion of Family Health Programs (PSFs) deployed, proportion of Growth Acceleration Programs (PACs) deployed, per capita GDP and SPSRI (Sao Paulo social responsibility index). The analysis was performed by generalized linear models, considering the gamma distribution. Multiple comparisons were performed with the likelihood ratio with chi-square approximate distribution, considering a significance level of 5%. There was a decrease in infant mortality over the years (p < 0.05), with no significant difference from 2004 to 2008 (p > 0.05). The proportion of PSFs deployed (p < 0.0001) and per capita GDP (p < 0.0001) were significant in the model. The decline of infant mortality in this period was influenced by the growth of per capita GDP and PSFs.

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Repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) has been widely tested and shown to be effective for unipolar depression. Although it has also been investigated for bipolar depression (BD), there are only few rTMS studies with BD. Here, we investigated 56 patients with BD who received rTMS treatment until remission (defined as Hamilton Depression Rating Scores <= 7). We used simple and multiple logistic regressions to identify clinical and demographic predictors associated with duration of treatment (defined as <15 vs. >15 rTMS sessions). Age, refractoriness, number of prior depressive episodes, and severe depression at baseline were associated with a longer rTMS treatment. In the multivariate analysis, refractoriness (likelihood ratio (LR) = 4.33; p < 0.01) and baseline severity (LR = 0.18, p < 0.01) remained significant predictors. Our preliminary study showed that, in remitted patients, refractoriness and severity of index episode are associated with the need of a longer rTMS treatment; providing preliminary evidence of important factors associated with rTMS parameters adjustment.

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Abstract Background Procalcitonin (PCT) is an inflammatory marker that has been used as indicator of severe bacterial infection. We evaluated the concentrations of PCT as a marker for systemic infection compared to C-reactive protein (CRP) in patients neutropenic febrile. Methods 52 adult patients were enrolled in the study. Blood sample was collected in order to determine the serum concentrations of PCT, CRP and other hematological parameters at the onset of fever. The patients were divided into 2 groups, one with severe infection (n = 26) and the other in which the patients did not present such an infection (n = 26). Then PCT and CRP concentrations at the fever onset were compared between groups using non parametric statistical tests, ROC curve, sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratio, and Spearman's correlation coefficient. Results The mean of PCT was significantly higher in the group with severe infection (6.7 ng/mL versus 0.6 ng/mL – p = 0.0075) comparing with CRP. Serum concentrations of 0.245 ng/mL of PCT displayed 100% de sensitivity and 69.2% specificity. PCT concentrations of 2,145 ng/mL presented a likelihood ratio of 13, which was not observed for any concentration of CRP. Conclusion PCT seems to be an useful marker for the diagnosis of systemic infection in febrile neutropenic patients, probably better than CRP.

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Background Where malaria endemicity is low, control programmes need increasingly sensitive tools for monitoring malaria transmission intensity (MTI) and to better define health priorities. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in a low endemicity area of the Peruvian north-western coast to assess the MTI using both molecular and serological tools. Methods Epidemiological, parasitological and serological data were collected from 2,667 individuals in three settlements of Bellavista district, in May 2010. Parasite infection was detected using microscopy and polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Antibodies to Plasmodium vivax merozoite surface protein-119 (PvMSP119) and to Plasmodium falciparum glutamate-rich protein (PfGLURP) were detected by ELISA. Risk factors for exposure to malaria (seropositivity) were assessed by multivariate survey logistic regression models. Age-specific antibody prevalence of both P. falciparum and P. vivax were analysed using a previously published catalytic conversion model based on maximum likelihood for generating seroconversion rates (SCR). Results The overall parasite prevalence by microscopy and PCR were extremely low: 0.3 and 0.9%, respectively for P. vivax, and 0 and 0.04%, respectively for P. falciparum, while seroprevalence was much higher, 13.6% for P. vivax and 9.8% for P. falciparum. Settlement, age and occupation as moto-taxi driver during previous year were significantly associated with P. falciparum exposure, while age and distance to the water drain were associated with P. vivax exposure. Likelihood ratio tests supported age seroprevalence curves with two SCR for both P. vivax and P. falciparum indicating significant changes in the MTI over time. The SCR for PfGLURP was 19-fold lower after 2002 as compared to before (λ1 = 0.022 versus λ2 = 0.431), and the SCR for PvMSP119 was four-fold higher after 2006 as compared to before (λ1 = 0.024 versus λ2 = 0.006). Conclusion Combining molecular and serological tools considerably enhanced the capacity of detecting current and past exposure to malaria infections and related risks factors in this very low endemicity area. This allowed for an improved characterization of the current human reservoir of infections, largely hidden and heterogeneous, as well as providing insights into recent changes in species specific MTIs. This approach will be of key importance for evaluating and monitoring future malaria elimination strategies.

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Abstract Background The diagnosis of ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) is a challenge, particularly after cardiac surgery. The use of biological markers of infection has been suggested to improve the accuracy of VAP diagnosis. We aimed to evaluate the usefulness of soluble triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells (sTREM)-1 in the diagnosis of VAP following cardiac surgery. Methods This was a prospective observational cohort study of children with congenital heart disease admitted to the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) after surgery and who remained intubated and mechanically ventilated for at least 24 hours postoperatively. VAP was defined by the 2007 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention criteria. Blood, modified bronchoalveolar lavage (mBAL) fluid and exhaled ventilator condensate (EVC) were collected daily, starting immediately after surgery until the fifth postoperative day or until extubation for measurement of sTREM-1. Results Thirty patients were included, 16 with VAP. Demographic variables, Pediatric Risk of Mortality (PRISM) and Risk Adjustment for Congenital Heart Surgery (RACHS)-1 scores, duration of surgery and length of cardiopulmonary bypass were not significantly diferent in patients with and without VAP. However, time on mechanical ventilation and length of stay in the PICU and in the hospital were significantly longer in the VAP group. Serum and mBAL fluid sTREM-1 concentrations were similar in both groups. In the VAP group, 12 of 16 patients had sTREM-1 detected in EVC, whereas it was undetectable in all but two patients in the non-VAP group over the study period (p = 0.0013) (sensitivity 0.75, specificity 0.86, positive predictive value 0.86, negative predictive value 0.75, positive likelihood ratio (LR) 5.25, negative LR 0.29). Conclusion Measurement of sTREM-1 in EVC may be useful for the diagnosis of VAP after cardiac surgery.

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Introduction Toxoplasmosis may be life-threatening in fetuses and in immune-deficient patients. Conventional laboratory diagnosis of toxoplasmosis is based on the presence of IgM and IgG anti-Toxoplasma gondii antibodies; however, molecular techniques have emerged as alternative tools due to their increased sensitivity. The aim of this study was to compare the performance of 4 PCR-based methods for the laboratory diagnosis of toxoplasmosis. One hundred pregnant women who seroconverted during pregnancy were included in the study. The definition of cases was based on a 12-month follow-up of the infants. Methods Amniotic fluid samples were submitted to DNA extraction and amplification by the following 4 Toxoplasma techniques performed with parasite B1 gene primers: conventional PCR, nested-PCR, multiplex-nested-PCR, and real-time PCR. Seven parameters were analyzed, sensitivity (Se), specificity (Sp), positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), positive likelihood ratio (PLR), negative likelihood ratio (NLR) and efficiency (Ef). Results Fifty-nine of the 100 infants had toxoplasmosis; 42 (71.2%) had IgM antibodies at birth but were asymptomatic, and the remaining 17 cases had non-detectable IgM antibodies but high IgG antibody titers that were associated with retinochoroiditis in 8 (13.5%) cases, abnormal cranial ultrasound in 5 (8.5%) cases, and signs/symptoms suggestive of infection in 4 (6.8%) cases. The conventional PCR assay detected 50 cases (9 false-negatives), nested-PCR detected 58 cases (1 false-negative and 4 false-positives), multiplex-nested-PCR detected 57 cases (2 false-negatives), and real-time-PCR detected 58 cases (1 false-negative). Conclusions The real-time PCR assay was the best-performing technique based on the parameters of Se (98.3%), Sp (100%), PPV (100%), NPV (97.6%), PLR (â^ž), NLR (0.017), and Ef (99%).

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Background. Abdominal porto-systemic collaterals (APSC) on Color-Doppler ultrasound are a frequent finding in portal hypertensive cirrhotic patients. In patients with cirrhosis, an HVPG ≥ 16mmHg has been shown to be associated with increased mortality in two studies. Non-invasive indicators of HVPG ≥ 16 mmHg might define a subgroup of high-risk patients, but data on this aspect are lacking. Aims. We aimed to investigate whether HVPG predicts mortality in patients with clinically significant portal hypertension, and if APSC may predict a severe portal hypertensive state (i.e. HVPG≥16mmHg) in patients with cirrhosis and untreated portal hypertension. Methods. We analysed paired HVPG and ultrasonographic data of 86 untreated portal hypertensive cirrhotic patients. On abdominal echo-color-Doppler data on presence, type and number of APSC were prospectively collected. HVPG was measured following published guidelines. Clinical, laboratory and endoscopic data were available in all cases. First decompensation of cirrhosis and liver-disease related mortality on follow-up (mean 28±20 months) were recorded. Results. 73% of patients had compensated cirrhosis, while 27% were decompensated. All patients had an HVPG≥10 mmHg (mean 17.8±5.1 mmHg). 58% of compensated patients and 82% of decompensated patients had an HVPG over 16 mmHg. 25% had no varices, 28% had small varices, and 47% had medium/large varices. HVPG was higher in patients with esophageal varices vs. patients without varices (19.0±4.8 vs. 14.1±4.2mmHg, p<0.0001), and correlated with Child-Pugh score (R=0.494,p=0.019). 36 (42%) patients had APSC were more frequent in decompensated patients (60% vs. 35%, p=0.03) and in patients with esophageal varices (52% vs. 9%,p=0.001). HVPG was higher in patients with APSC compared with those without PSC (19.9± 4.6 vs. 16.2± 4.9mmHg, p=0.001). The prevalence of APSC was higher in patients with HVPG≥16mmHg vs. those with HVPG<16mmHg (57% vs. 13%,p<0.0001). Decompensation was significantly more frequent in patients with HVPG≥16mmHg vs. HVPG<16mmHg (35.1% vs. 11.5%, p=0.02). On multivariate analysis only HVPG and bilirubin were independent predictors of first decompensation. 10 patients died during follow-up. All had an HVPG≥16 mmHg (26% vs. 0% in patients with HVPG <16mmHg,p=0.04). On multivariate analysis only MELD score and HVPG ≥16mmHg were independent predictors of mortality. In compensated patients the detection of APSC predicted an HVPG≥16mmHg with 92% specificity, 54% sensitivity, positive and negative likelihood ratio 7.03 and 0.50, which implies that the demonstration of APSC on ultrasound increased the probability of HVPG≥16mmHg from 58% to 91%. Conclusions. HVPG maintains an independent prognostic value in the subset of patients with cirrhosis and clinically significant portal hypertension. The presence of APSC is a specific indicator of severe portal hypertension in patients with cirrhosis. Detection of APSC on ultrasound allows the non-invasive identification of a subgroup of compensated patients with bad prognosis, avoiding the invasive measurement of HVPG.

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Obiettivo Valutare l’ipotesi secondo cui la movimentazione manuale di carichi possa essere un fattore di rischio per il di distacco di retina. Metodi Si è condotto uno studio caso-controllo ospedaliero multicentrico, a Bologna, (reparto di Oculistica del policlinico S. Orsola Malpighi, Prof. Campos), e a Brescia (reparto di oculistica “Spedali Civili” Prof. Semeraro). I casi sono 104 pazienti operati per distacco di retina. I controlli sono 173 pazienti reclutati tra l’utenza degli ambulatori del medesimo reparto di provenienza dei casi. Sia i casi che i controlli (all’oscuro dall’ipotesi in studio) sono stati sottoposti ad un’intervista, attraverso un questionario strutturato concernente caratteristiche individuali, patologie pregresse e fattori di rischio professionali (e non) relativi al distacco di retina. I dati relativi alla movimentazione manuale di carichi sono stati utilizzati per creare un “indice di sollevamento cumulativo―ICS” (peso del carico sollevato x numero di sollevamenti/ora x numero di anni di sollevamento). Sono stati calcolati mediante un modello di regressione logistica unconditional (aggiustato per età e sesso) gli Odds Ratio (OR) relativi all’associazione tra distacco di retina e vari fattori di rischio, tra cui la movimentazione manuale di carichi. Risultati Oltre alla chirurgia oculare e alla miopia (fattori di rischio noti), si evidenzia un trend positivo tra l’aumento dell’ICS e il rischio di distacco della retina. Il rischio maggiore si osserva per la categoria di sollevamento severo (OR 3.6, IC 95%, 1.5–9.0). Conclusione I risultati, mostrano un maggiore rischio di sviluppare distacco di retina per coloro che svolgono attività lavorative che comportino la movimentazione manuale di carichi e, a conferma di quanto riportato in letteratura, anche per i soggetti miopi e per coloro che sono stati sottoposti ad intervento di cataratta. Si rende quindi evidente l’importanza degli interventi di prevenzione in soggetti addetti alla movimentazione manuale di carichi, in particolare se miopi.

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Despite the scientific achievement of the last decades in the astrophysical and cosmological fields, the majority of the Universe energy content is still unknown. A potential solution to the “missing mass problem” is the existence of dark matter in the form of WIMPs. Due to the very small cross section for WIMP-nuleon interactions, the number of expected events is very limited (about 1 ev/tonne/year), thus requiring detectors with large target mass and low background level. The aim of the XENON1T experiment, the first tonne-scale LXe based detector, is to be sensitive to WIMP-nucleon cross section as low as 10^-47 cm^2. To investigate the possibility of such a detector to reach its goal, Monte Carlo simulations are mandatory to estimate the background. To this aim, the GEANT4 toolkit has been used to implement the detector geometry and to simulate the decays from the various background sources: electromagnetic and nuclear. From the analysis of the simulations, the level of background has been found totally acceptable for the experiment purposes: about 1 background event in a 2 tonne-years exposure. Indeed, using the Maximum Gap method, the XENON1T sensitivity has been evaluated and the minimum for the WIMP-nucleon cross sections has been found at 1.87 x 10^-47 cm^2, at 90% CL, for a WIMP mass of 45 GeV/c^2. The results have been independently cross checked by using the Likelihood Ratio method that confirmed such results with an agreement within less than a factor two. Such a result is completely acceptable considering the intrinsic differences between the two statistical methods. Thus, in the PhD thesis it has been proven that the XENON1T detector will be able to reach the designed sensitivity, thus lowering the limits on the WIMP-nucleon cross section by about 2 orders of magnitude with respect to the current experiments.

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In a retrospective analysis with two readers blinded to the clinical information, coronal short tau inversion recovery (STIR) images were compared to contrast-enhanced fat-saturated T1-weighted imaging (T1 CEfs) in 51 cases of cervical lymphoma. Interrater reliability was good to excellent. Although sensitivity and subjective quality of the STIR sequence were higher than those of the T1 CEfs sequence (sensitivity 85%/72%, respectively), specificity (82%/95%) as well as positive likelihood ratio (4.65/15.93) was much lower. Therefore, contrast-enhanced sequences should be included in the primary staging of lymphoma.

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To assess the association of CYP2B6 allelic diversity with efavirenz (EFV) pharmacokinetics, we performed extensive genotyping of 15 relevant single nucleotide polymorphism in 169 study participants, and full resequencing of CYP2B6 in individuals with abnormal EFV plasma levels. Seventy-seven (45.5%) individuals carried a known (CYP2B6*6, *11, *15, or *18) or new loss/diminished-function alleles. Resequencing defined two new loss-of-function alleles: allele *27 (marked by 593T>C [M198T]), that results in 85% decrease in enzyme activity and allele *28 (marked by 1132C>T), that results in protein truncation at arginine 378. Median AUC levels were 188.5 microg h/ml for individuals homozygous for a loss/diminished-function allele, 58.6 microg h/ml for carriers, and 43.7 microg h/ml for noncarriers (P<0.0001). Individuals with a poor metabolizer genotype had a likelihood ratio of 35 (95% CI, 11-110) of presenting very high EFV plasma levels. CYP2B6 poor metabolizer genotypes explain to a large extent EFV pharmacokinetics and identify individuals at risk of extremely elevated EFV plasma levels.

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This study compared the performance of fluorescence-based methods, radiographic examination, and International Caries Detection and Assessment System (ICDAS) II on occlusal surfaces. One hundred and nineteen permanent human molars were assessed twice by 2 experienced dentists using the laser fluorescence (LF and LFpen) and fluorescence camera (FC) devices, ICDAS II and bitewing radiographs (BW). After measuring, the teeth were histologically prepared and assessed for caries extension. The sensitivities for dentine caries detection were 0.86 (FC), 0.78 (LFpen), 0.73 (ICDAS II), 0.51 (LF) and 0.34 (BW). The specificities were 0.97 (BW), 0.89 (LF), 0.65 (ICDAS II), 0.63 (FC) and 0.56 (LFpen). BW presented the highest values of likelihood ratio (LR)+ (12.47) and LR- (0.68). Rank correlations with histology were 0.53 (LF), 0.52 (LFpen), 0.41 (FC), 0.59 (ICDAS II) and 0.57 (BW). The area under the ROC curve varied from 0.72 to 0.83. Inter- and intraexaminer intraclass correlation values were respectively 0.90 and 0.85 (LF), 0.93 and 0.87 (LFpen) and 0.85 and 0.76 (FC). The ICDAS II kappa values were 0.51 (interexaminer) and 0.61 (intraexaminer). The BW kappa values were 0.50 (interexaminer) and 0.62 (intraexaminer). The Bland and Altman limits of agreement were 46.0 and 38.2 (LF), 55.6 and 40.0 (LFpen) and 1.12 and 0.80 (FC), for intra- and interexaminer reproducibilities. The posttest probability for dentine caries detection was high for BW and LF. In conclusion, LFpen, FC and ICDAS II presented better sensitivity and LF and BW better specificity. ICDAS II combined with BW showed the best performance and is the best combination for detecting caries on occlusal surfaces.

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QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY: To assess whether the prevalence of HIV positive tests in clients at five anonymous testing sites in Switzerland had increased since the end of the 1990s, and ascertain whether there had been any concurrent change in the proportions of associated risk factors. METHODS: Baseline characteristics were analysed, by groups of years, over the eleven consecutive years of data collected from the testing sites. Numbers of HIV positive tests were presented as prevalence/1000 tests performed within each category. Multivariable analyses, stratified by African nationality and risk group of heterosexuals or men who have sex with men (MSM), were done controlling simultaneously for a series of variables. Odds ratios (ORs) were reported together with their 95% confidence intervals (CI). P values were calculated from likelihood ratio tests. RESULTS: There was an increase in the prevalence of positive tests in African heterosexuals between 1996-1999 and 2004-2006, rising from 54.2 to 86.4/1000 and from 5.6 to 25.2/1000 in females and males respectively. The proportion of MSM who knew that one or more of their sexual partners was infected with HIV increased from 2% to 17% and the proportion who reported having more than five sexual partners in the preceding two years increased from 44% to 51%. CONCLUSIONS: Surveillance data from anonymous testing sites continue to provide useful information on the changing epidemiology of HIV and thus inform public health strategies against HIV.

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The reliable quantification of gene copy number variations is a precondition for future investigations regarding their functional relevance. To date, there is no generally accepted gold standard method for copy number quantification, and methods in current use have given inconsistent results in selected cohorts. In this study, we compare two methods for copy number quantification. beta-defensin gene copy numbers were determined in parallel in 80 genomic DNA samples by real-time PCR and multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification (MLPA). The pyrosequencing-based paralog ratio test (PPRT) was used as a standard of comparison in 79 out of 80 samples. Realtime PCR and MPLA results confirmed concordant DEFB4, DEFB103A, and DEFB104A copy numbers within samples. These two methods showed identical results in 32 out of 80 samples; 29 of these 32 samples comprised four or fewer copies. The coefficient of variation of MLPA is lower compared with PCR. In addition, the consistency between MLPA and PPRT is higher than either PCR/MLPA or PCR/PPRT consistency. In summary, these results suggest that MLPA is superior to real-time PCR in beta-defensin copy number quantification.