936 resultados para leave one out cross validation


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OBJECTIVE: To assess the spectrum and prevalence of mutations in the GJB2 gene in Portuguese nonsyndromic sensorineural hearing loss (NSSHL) patients. DESIGN: Sequencing of the coding region, basal promoter, exon 1, and donor splice site of the GJB2 gene; screening for the presence of the two common GJB6 deletions. STUDY SAMPLE: A cohort of 264 Portuguese NSSHL patients. RESULTS: At least one out of 21 different GJB2 variants was identified in 80 (30.2%) of the 264 patients analysed. Two mutant alleles were found in 53 (20%) of these probands, of which 83% (44/53) harboured at least one c.35delG allele. Twenty-seven (10.2%) of the probands harboured only one mutant allele. Subsequent analysis revealed that the GJB6 deletion del(GJB6-D13S1854) was present in at least 7.4% (2/27) of the patients carrying only one mutant GJB2 allele. Overall, one in five (55/264) of the patients were diagnosed as having DFNB1-related NSSHL, of which the vast majority (53/55) harboured only GJB2 mutations. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides clear demonstration that mutations in the GJB2 gene are an important cause of NSSHL in Portugal, thus representing a valuable indicator as regards therapeutical and rehabilitation options, as well as genetic counseling of these patients and their families.

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RESUMO: O Líbano é um pequeno país na costa leste do Mar Mediterrâneo, com uma população de aproximadamente 4.350.000 pessoas, incluindo 1,5 milhões de refugiados, 400 mil dos quais são palestinos atendidos pela UNRWA (Agência das Nações Unidas de Socorro aos Refugiados da Palestina) (UNHCR, 2013; OMS, 2010a). Desde 2012, um excedente de 1.000.000 refugiados sírios cruzaram a fronteira com o Líbano, representando um aumento populacional de aproximadamente 25%. Além disso, entre 1975 e 1990, a violenta guerra civil pela qual o Líbano passou, destruiu grande parte da infra-estrutura do país, incluindo os serviços de saúde. O sector da saúde, mais especificamente os serviços de saúde mental, é majoritariamente privado. Serviços especializados em Saúde Mental estão disponíveis em três hospitais psiquiátricos privados, e em 4 unidades psiquiátricas de hospitais gerais, que estão localizados centralmente em torno da capital, Beirute. O Líbano é um dos dois únicos países da região que não tem uma Política de Saúde Mental e um dos seis países que não têm uma Legislação em Saúde Mental. Nos últimos anos, a Saúde Mental está sendo colocada no topo da agenda nacional, apesar das contínuas questões políticas e de segurança. Baseando-se nas informações acima, um projecto de estratégia em Saúde Mental, conduzido pelo Ministério da Saúde e apoiado pela OMS, foi escrito para servir como um guia para trabalhar em diferentes aspectos relacionados tanto em saúde mental quanto em organização dos serviços, revisão de legislação, financiamento e proteção dos direitos humanos básicos dos usuários do serviço. Esta tese descreve o processo pelo qual o projecto de estratégia nacional de Saúde Mental foi desenvolvido, seus principais componentes, os próximos passos a serem tomados para a sua implementação, os desafios e as oportunidades para implementá-lo e propõe alguns passos iniciais a serem tomados em primeiro lugar.----------ABSTRACT: Lebanon is a small country on the eastern shore of the Mediterranean Sea with a population of approximately 4,350,000 including 1,500,000 refugees, 400,000 of whom are Palestinians served by UNRWA (the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees) (UNHCR, 2013; WHO, 2010a). Since 2012 an excess of 1,000,000 Syrian refugees have crossed the border into Lebanon accounting for approximately 25% increase in the population. In addition, from 1975 to 1990 Lebanon underwent a violent civil war that had also destroyed much of the country infrastructure including health services. The health sector, more so the mental health services, is mostly private. Specialized Mental Health services are available at three private mental hospitals, and 4 psychiatric units within general hospitals, which are located centrally around the capital, Beirut. Lebanon is one of only two countries of the region that does not have a Mental Health policy and one out of the six countries that does not have a Mental Health legislation. In recent years, Mental Health is getting placed higher on the national agenda despite the ever continuing political and security issues. Based on the above, A Mental Health strategy draft, lead by the Ministry of Health and supported by WHO, was written to serve as a guide to work on different aspects related to Mental Health from service organization, to the revision of legislation, financing and the protection of the basic human rights of service users. This thesis describes the process through which the national Mental Health draft strategy was developed, its main components, the next steps to be taken for its implementation, the challenges and the opportunities to implementing it and proposes a few initial steps to be taken first.

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Twenty-four hepatitis C virus patients coinfected with human T-lymphotropic virus type 1 were compared with six coinfected with HTLV-2 and 55 with HCV alone, regarding clinical, epidemiological, laboratory and histopathological data. Fischer's discriminant analysis was applied to define functions capable of differentiating between the study groups (HCV, HCV/HTLV-1 and HCV/HTLV-2). The discriminant accuracy was evaluated by cross-validation. Alcohol consumption, use of intravenous drugs or inhaled cocaine and sexual partnership with intravenous drug users were more frequent in the HCV/HTLV-2 group, whereas patients in the HCV group more often reported abdominal pain or a sexual partner with hepatitis. Coinfected patients presented higher platelet counts, but aminotransferase and gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase levels were higher among HCV-infected subjects. No significant difference between the groups was seen regarding liver histopathological findings. Through discriminant analysis, classification functions were defined, including sex, age group, intravenous drug use and sexual partner with hepatitis. Cross-validation revealed high discriminant accuracy for the HCV group.

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As florestas são uma fonte importante de recursos naturais, desempenhando um papel fulcral na sustentabilidade ambiental. A sua gestão quer territorial quer económica, conduz a uma maximização da produção, sem alteração da qualidade da matéria-prima. Portugal apresenta mais de um terço do seu território coberto por floresta, apresentando uma possibilidade de aplicação de sistemas de gestão, territorial e económica que maximizem a sua produção. Os Sistemas de Informação Geográfica (SIG) são modelos da realidade em que é possível integrar toda a informação disponível sobre um assunto tendo por base um campo comum a todos as variáveis, a localização geográfica. Os SIG podem contribuir de diversas formas para um maior desenvolvimento das rotinas e ferramentas de planeamento e gestão florestal. A sua integração com modelos quantitativos para planeamento e gestão de florestas é uma mais-valia nesta área. Nesta dissertação apresentam-se modelos geoestatísticos, com recurso a Sistemas de Informação Geográfica, de apoio e suporte à produção de pinha em Pinheiro-manso (Pinus pinea L.). Procurando estimar as áreas com melhor propensão à produção, a partir de dados amostrais. Estes foram previamente estudados tendo sido selecionadas quatro variáveis: largura da copa, área basal, altura da árvore e produção de pinha. A geoestatística aplicada, inclui modelos de correlação espacial: kriging, onde são atribuídos pesos às amostras a partir de uma análise espacial baseada no variograma experimental. Foi utilizada a extensão Geostatistical Analyst do ArcGis da ESRI, para realizar 96 krigings para as quatro variáveis em estudo, com diferentes parametrizações, destes foram selecionados 8 krigings. Com base nos critérios de adequação dos modelos e da análise de resultados da predição dos erros - cross validation. O resultado deste estudo é apresentado através de mapas de previsão para a produção de pinha em Pinheiro manso, em que foram analisadas áreas com maior e menor probabilidade de produção tendo-se realizado análises de comparação de variáveis. Através da interseção de todas as variáveis com a produção, podemos concluir que os concelhos com maiores áreas de probabilidade de produção de pinha em Pinheiro manso, da área de estudo, são Alcácer do Sal, Montemor-o-Novo, Vendas Novas, Coruche e Chamusca. Com a realização de um cruzamento de dados entre os resultados obtidos dos krigings, e a Carta de Uso e Ocupação do Solo de Portugal Continental para 2007 (COS2007), realizaram-se mapas de previsão para a expansão do Pinheiro manso. Nas áreas de expansão conseguimos atingir aumentos mínimos na ordem dos 11% e máximo na ordem dos 61%. No total consegue-se atingir aproximadamente 128 mil ha para área de expansão do Pinheiro manso. Superando, os valores esperados pelos Planos Regionais de Ordenamento Florestal, abrangidos pela área da amostra em estudo, em que é esperado um incremento de cerca de 130 mil hectares de área de Pinheiro manso para 2030.

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This paper aims at developing a collision prediction model for three-leg junctions located in national roads (NR) in Northern Portugal. The focus is to identify factors that contribute for collision type crashes in those locations, mainly factors related to road geometric consistency, since literature is scarce on those, and to research the impact of three modeling methods: generalized estimating equations, random-effects negative binomial models and random-parameters negative binomial models, on the factors of those models. The database used included data published between 2008 and 2010 of 177 three-leg junctions. It was split in three groups of contributing factors which were tested sequentially for each of the adopted models: at first only traffic, then, traffic and the geometric characteristics of the junctions within their area of influence; and, lastly, factors which show the difference between the geometric characteristics of the segments boarding the junctionsâ area of influence and the segment included in that area were added. The choice of the best modeling technique was supported by the result of a cross validation made to ascertain the best model for the three sets of researched contributing factors. The models fitted with random-parameters negative binomial models had the best performance in the process. In the best models obtained for every modeling technique, the characteristics of the road environment, including proxy measures for the geometric consistency, along with traffic volume, contribute significantly to the number of collisions. Both the variables concerning junctions and the various national highway segments in their area of influence, as well as variations from those characteristics concerning roadway segments which border the already mentioned area of influence have proven their relevance and, therefore, there is a rightful need to incorporate the effect of geometric consistency in the three-leg junctions safety studies.

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Nowadays the main honey producing countries require accurate labeling of honey before commercialization, including floral classification. Traditionally, this classification is made by melissopalynology analysis, an accurate but time-consuming task requiring laborious sample pre-treatment and high-skilled technicians. In this work the potential use of a potentiometric electronic tongue for pollinic assessment is evaluated, using monofloral and polyfloral honeys. The results showed that after splitting honeys according to color (white, amber and dark), the novel methodology enabled quantifying the relative percentage of the main pollens (Castanea sp., Echium sp., Erica sp., Eucaliptus sp., Lavandula sp., Prunus sp., Rubus sp. and Trifolium sp.). Multiple linear regression models were established for each type of pollen, based on the best sensors sub-sets selected using the simulated annealing algorithm. To minimize the overfitting risk, a repeated K-fold cross-validation procedure was implemented, ensuring that at least 10-20% of the honeys were used for internal validation. With this approach, a minimum average determination coefficient of 0.91 ± 0.15 was obtained. Also, the proposed technique enabled the correct classification of 92% and 100% of monofloral and polyfloral honeys, respectively. The quite satisfactory performance of the novel procedure for quantifying the relative pollen frequency may envisage its applicability for honey labeling and geographical origin identification. Nevertheless, this approach is not a full alternative to the traditional melissopalynologic analysis; it may be seen as a practical complementary tool for preliminary honey floral classification, leaving only problematic cases for pollinic evaluation.

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Dissertação de mestrado em Ciências da Comunicação (área de especialização em Informação e Jornalismo)

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Species introductions have altered host and parasite diversity throughout the world. In the case of introduced hosts, population age appears to be a good predictor of parasite richness. Habitat alteration is another variable that may impact host-parasite interactions by affecting the availability of intermediate hosts. The house sparrow (Passer domesticus (Linnaeus, 1758)) is a good model to test these predictions. It was introduced in several parts of the world and can be found across rural-urban gradients. A total of 160 house sparrows from Porto Alegre, state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, were necropsied. Thirty house sparrows (19 %) were parasitized with at least one out of five helminth species (Digenea: Tamerlania inopina Freitas, 1951 and Eumegacetes sp.; Eucestoda: Choanotaenia passerina (Fuhrmann, 1907) Fuhrmann, 1932; Nematoda: Dispharynx nasuta (Rudolphi, 1819) Stiles & Hassall, 1920 and Cardiofilaria pavlovskyi Strom, 1937). Overall, there was no difference in prevalence and intensity of infection of any parasite species, parasite richness and community diversity between adult males and females and adults and juveniles. The number of infected sparrows among seasons, the richness of helminths and the abundance of species were also similar between rural and urban landscapes. Only the prevalence of C. passerina varied seasonally (p=0.0007). A decrease in the number of parasite species from the original range of P. domesticus (13) to its port of entrance in Brazil, the city of Rio de Janeiro (nine), to Porto Alegre (five) is compatible with the hypothesis that host population age is a good predictor of parasite richness.

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Recently there has been a renewed research interest in the properties of non survey updates of input-output tables and social accounting matrices (SAM). Along with the venerable and well known scaling RAS method, several alternative new procedures related to entropy minimization and other metrics have been suggested, tested and used in the literature. Whether these procedures will eventually substitute or merely complement the RAS approach is still an open question without a definite answer. The performance of many of the updating procedures has been tested using some kind of proximity or closeness measure to a reference input-output table or SAM. The first goal of this paper, in contrast, is the proposal of checking the operational performance of updating mechanisms by way of comparing the simulation results that ensue from adopting alternative databases for calibration of a reference applied general equilibrium model. The second goal is to introduce a new updatin! g procedure based on information retrieval principles. This new procedure is then compared as far as performance is concerned to two well-known updating approaches: RAS and cross-entropy. The rationale for the suggested cross validation is that the driving force for having more up to date databases is to be able to conduct more current, and hopefully more credible, policy analyses.

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One out of four specimens of sharks, Carcharhinus brachyurus (Günther, 1860), captured off the southern Brazilian Coast, harboured cestodes identified as Dasyrhynchus pacificus Robinson, 1965, of which the adult form is now described and referred as ocurring in Brazil.

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Biological features and social preferences have been studied separately as factors influencing human strategic behaviour. We run two studies in order to explore the interplay between these two sets of factors. In the first study, we investigate to what extent social preferences may have some biological underpinnings. We use simple one-shot distribution experiments to attribute subjects one out of four types of social preferences: Self-interested (SI), Competitive (C), Inequality averse (IA) and Efficiency-seeking (ES). We then investigate whether these four groups display differences in their levels of facial Fluctuating Asymmetry (FA) and in proxies for exposure to testosterone during phoetal development and puberty. We observe that development-related biological features and social preferences are relatively independent. In the second study, we compare the relative weight of these two set of factors by studying how they affect subjects’ behaviour in the Ultimatum Game (UG). We find differences in offers made and rejection rates across the four social preference groups. The effect of social preferences is stronger than the effect of biological features even though the latter is significant. We also report a novel link between facial masculinity (a proxy for exposure to testosterone during puberty) and rejection rates in the UG. Our results suggest that biological features influence behaviour both directly and through their relation with the type of social preferences that individuals hold.

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INTRODUCTION: The Swiss health care system is characterized by its decentralized structure and high degree of local autonomy. Ambulatory care is provided by physicians working mainly independently in individual private practices. However, a growing part of primary care is provided by networks of physicians and health maintenance organizations (HMOs) acting on the principles of gatekeeping. TOWARDS INTEGRATED CARE IN SWITZERLAND: The share of insured choosing an alternative (managed care) type of basic health insurance and therefore restrict their choice of doctors in return for lower premiums increased continuously since 1990. To date, an average of one out of eight insured person in Switzerland, and one out of three in the regions in north-eastern Switzerland, opted for the provision of care by general practitioners in one of the 86 physician networks or HMOs. About 50% of all general practitioners and more than 400 other specialists have joined a physician networks. Seventy-three of the 86 networks (84%) have contracts with the healthcare insurance companies in which they agree to assume budgetary co-responsibility, i.e., to adhere to set cost targets for particular groups of patients. Within and outside the physician networks, at regional and/or cantonal levels, several initiatives targeting chronic diseases have been developed, such as clinical pathways for heart failure and breast cancer patients or chronic disease management programs for patients with diabetes. CONCLUSION AND IMPLICATIONS: Swiss physician networks and HMOs were all established solely by initiatives of physicians and health insurance companies on the sole basis of a healthcare legislation (Swiss Health Insurance Law, KVG) which allows for such initiatives and developments. The relevance of these developments towards more integration of healthcare as well as their implications for the future are discussed.

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Introduction: As part of the MicroArray Quality Control (MAQC)-II project, this analysis examines how the choice of univariate feature-selection methods and classification algorithms may influence the performance of genomic predictors under varying degrees of prediction difficulty represented by three clinically relevant endpoints. Methods: We used gene-expression data from 230 breast cancers (grouped into training and independent validation sets), and we examined 40 predictors (five univariate feature-selection methods combined with eight different classifiers) for each of the three endpoints. Their classification performance was estimated on the training set by using two different resampling methods and compared with the accuracy observed in the independent validation set. Results: A ranking of the three classification problems was obtained, and the performance of 120 models was estimated and assessed on an independent validation set. The bootstrapping estimates were closer to the validation performance than were the cross-validation estimates. The required sample size for each endpoint was estimated, and both gene-level and pathway-level analyses were performed on the obtained models. Conclusions: We showed that genomic predictor accuracy is determined largely by an interplay between sample size and classification difficulty. Variations on univariate feature-selection methods and choice of classification algorithm have only a modest impact on predictor performance, and several statistically equally good predictors can be developed for any given classification problem.

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Lean meat percentage (LMP) is an important carcass quality parameter. The aim of this work is to obtain a calibration equation for the Computed Tomography (CT) scans with the Partial Least Square Regression (PLS) technique in order to predict the LMP of the carcass and the different cuts and to study and compare two different methodologies of the selection of the variables (Variable Importance for Projection — VIP- and Stepwise) to be included in the prediction equation. The error of prediction with cross-validation (RMSEPCV) of the LMP obtained with PLS and selection based on VIP value was 0.82% and for stepwise selection it was 0.83%. The prediction of the LMP scanning only the ham had a RMSEPCV of 0.97% and if the ham and the loin were scanned the RMSEPCV was 0.90%. Results indicate that for CT data both VIP and stepwise selection are good methods. Moreover the scanning of only the ham allowed us to obtain a good prediction of the LMP of the whole carcass.

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The cellular immune response to the circumsporozoite (CS) protein of plasmodium vivax of individuals from malaria-endemic areas of Brazil was studied. We examined the in vitro proliferative response of the peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) of 22 individuals when stimulated with a CS recombinant protein (rPvCS-2) and two other synthetic peptides based on the sequenceof the P. vivax CS protein. Seven of the individuals from malaria-endemic area displayed an antigen specific in vitro proliferative responseto the recombinant protein PvCS-2 and one out of 6, proliferative response to the peptide 308-320. In contrast, none of the individuals displayed a proliferative reponse when stimulated with the D/A peptide which represent some of the repeated units present in this CS protein. Our study, therefore, provides evidence for the presence, withinthe major surface antigen of P. vivax sporozoites, of epitopes capble to induce proliferation of human PBMC.