Hierarchical Shrinkage in Time-Varying Parameter Models

In this paper, we forecast EU-area inflation with many predictors using time-varying parameter models. The facts that time-varying parameter models are parameter-rich and the time span of our data is relatively short motivate a desire for shrinkage. In constant coefficient regression models, the Bayesian Lasso is gaining increasing popularity as an effective tool for achieving such shrinkage. In this paper, we develop econometric methods for using the Bayesian Lasso with time-varying parameter models. Our approach allows for the coefficient on each predictor to be: i) time varying, ii) constant over time or iii) shrunk to zero. The econometric methodology decides automatically which category each coefficient belongs in. Our empirical results indicate the benefits of such an approach.

Soporte geoespacial para modelos de distribución de especies (I): generalización del mapa de vegetación del Montseny apoyada en información de imágenes de satélite

Los mapas de vegetación son a menudo utilizados como proxis de una estratificación de hábitats para generar distribuciones geográficas contínuas de organismos a partir de datos discretos mediante modelos multi-variantes. Sin embargo, los mapas de vegetación suelen ser poco apropiados para ser directamente aplicados a este fin, pues sus categorías no se concibieron con la intención de corresponder a tipos de hábitat. En este artículo presentamos y aplicamos el método de Agrupamiento por Doble Criterio para generalizar un mapa de vegetación extraordinariamente detallado (350 clases) del Parque Natural del Montseny (Cataluña) en categorías que mantienen la coherencia tanto desde el punto de vista estructural (a través de una matriz de disimilaridad espectral calculada mediante una imágen del satélite SPOT-5) como en términos de vegetación (gracias a una matriz de disimilaridad calculada mediante propiedades de vegetación deducidas de la leyenda jerárquica del mapa). El método simplifica de 114 a 18 clases el 67% del área de estudio. Añadiendo otras agregaciones más triviales basadas exclusivamente en criterios de cubierta de suelo, el 73% del área de estudio pasa de 167 a 25 categorías. Como valor añadido, el método identifica el 10% de los polígonos originales como anómalos (a partir de comparar las propiedades espectrales de cada polígono con el resto de los de su clases), lo que implica cambios en la cubierta entre las fechas del soporte utilizado para generar el mapa original y la imagen de satélite, o errores en la producción de éste.

Why do creative industries cluster? An analysis of the determinants of clustering of creative industries

Creative industries tend to concentrate mainly around large- and medium-sized cities, forming creative local production systems. The text analyses the forces behind clustering of creative industries to provide the first empirical explanation of the determinants of creative employment clustering following a multidisciplinary approach based on cultural and creative economics, evolutionary geography and urban economics. A comparative analysis has been performed for Italy and Spain. The results show different patterns of creative employment clustering in both countries. The small role of historical and cultural endowments, the size of the place, the average size of creative industries, the productive diversity and the concentration of human capital and creative class have been found as common factors of clustering in both countries.

Clustering or scattering: the underlying reason for regulating distance among retail outlets

Concerns on the clustering of retail industries and professional services in main streets had traditionally been the public interest rationale for supporting distance regulations. Although many geographic restrictions have been suppressed, deregulation has hinged mostly upon the theory results on the natural tendency of outlets to differentiate spatially. Empirical evidence has so far offered mixed results. Using the case of deregulation of pharmacy establishment in a region of Spain, we empirically show how pharmacy locations scatter, and that there is not rationale for distance regulation apart from the underlying private interest of very few incumbents.

Off-label utilization of antipsychotics

Résumé Ce travail s'inscrit dans un programme de recherche centré sur la pharmacovigilance en psychiatrie. Buts de l'étude Les nouveaux antipsychotiques atypiques sont prescrits avec beaucoup de succès, parce qu'ils présentent une sécurité dans leur emploi bien supérieure à celle des antipsychotiques classiques. Cette situation a conduit à une large prescription «off-label» (hors indication admise). Le but de ce travail a été d'étudier la pratique en matière de prescription des psychiatres hospitaliers en ce qui concerne les antipsychotiques en comparant des patients traités pour des psychoses ou d'autres indications officielles aux patients recevant un traitement antipsychotique «off-label». Méthode Dans le cadre d'un programme de pharmacovigilance - pharmacoépidemiologie, tous les médicaments prescrits à 5 jours de référence (entre 1999 et 2001) à l'hôpital psychiatrique universitaire de Lausanne (98 lits) ont été enregistrés, avec des données sur l'âge, le sexe et le diagnostic des patients. Les prescriptions de 202 patients ont été évaluées. Les patients ont été classés dans 3 groupes diagnostiques : (1) patient présentant des troubles psychotiques, (2) patient présentant des épisodes maniaques et des épisodes dépressifs avec des symptômes psychotiques, et (3) patient présentant d'autres troubles. Les groupes (1) et (2) forment une classe de patients recevant un antipsychotique pour une indication officielle, et les prescriptions dans le groupe (3) ont été considérées comme «off-label». Résultats principaux Moins de patients psychotiques ont reçu un antidépresseur (p<0.05) ou des hypnotiques non-benzodiazepine (p<0.001) comparés aux patients des deux autres groupes. Les patients présentant des troubles affectifs recevaient seulement exceptionnellement une combinaison d'un antipsychotique atypique et conventionnel, tandis qu'un nombre inférieur de patients avec des indications « off-label » ont reçu moins .souvent des antipsychotiques atypiques que ceux des deux groupes de comparaison (p<0.05). L'analyse statistique (stepwise logistic regression) a révélé que les patients présentant des troubles psychotiques avaient un risque plus élevé de recevoir un médicament antipsychotique d'une dose moyenne ou élevée, (p<0.001) en comparaison aux deux autres groupes. Conclusion Les nouveaux médicaments antipsychotiques semblent être prescrits avec moins d'hésitation principalement pour des indications admises. Les médecins prescrivent de nouveaux médicaments « off-label » seulement après avoir acquis une certaine expérience dans le domaine des indications approuvées, et ils étaient plus prudents en ce qui concerne la dose en traitant sur la base «off-label». Abstract Objective The new brands of atypical antipsychotics are very successfully prescribed because of their enhanced safety profiles and their larger pharmacological profile in comparison to the conventional antipsychotic. This has led to broad off-label utilisation. The aim of the present survey was to study the prescription practice of hospital psychiatrists with regard to antipsychotic drugs, comparing patients treated for psychoses or other registered indications to patients receiving an off-label antipsychotic treatment. Method As part of a pharmacovigilance/pharmacoepidemiology program, all drugs given on 5 reference days (1999 - 2001) in the 98-bed psychiatric hospital of the University of Lausanne, Switzerland, were recorded along with age, sex and diagnosis. The prescriptions of 202 patients were assessed. Patients were classified in 3 diagnostic groups: (1) patient with psychotic disorders, (2) patients with manic episodes and depressive episodes with psychotic symptoms, and (3) patients with other disorders. Group (1) and (2) formed the class of patients receiving an antipsychotic for a registered indication, and the prescriptions in group (3) were considered as off-label. Main results A lesser number of psychotic patients received antidepressant (p<0.05) and nonbenzodiazepine hypnotics (p<0.001) compared to the patients of the other two groups. The patients with affective disorders received only exceptionally a combination of an atypical and a conventional antipsychotic, whereas a lesser number of patients with off-label indications received less often atypical antipsychotics than those of the two comparison groups (p<0.05). Stepwise logistic regression revealed that patients with psychotic disorder were at higher risk of receiving an antipsychotic medication in medium or high dose (p<0.001), in comparison to the two other groups. Conclusions The new antipsychotic drugs seem to be prescribed with less hesitation mainly for approved indications. Physicians prescribe new drugs on off-label application only after having gained some experience in the field of the approved indications, and were more cautious with regard to dose when treating on an off-label basis.

Validation of the French version of the Hierarchical Personality Inventory for Children (HiPIC): Influence of gender and age on personality traits from 8 to 12 years

The study was designed to investigate the psychometric properties of the French version and the cross-language replicability of the Hierarchical Personality Inventory for Children (HiPIC). The HiPIC is an instrument aimed at assessing the five dimensions of the Five-Factor Model for Children. Subjects were 552 children aged between 8 and 12 years, rated by one or both parents. At the domain level, reliability ranged from .83 to .93 and at the facet level, reliability ranged from .69 to .89. Differences between genders were congruent with those found in the Dutch sample. Girls scored higher on Benevolence and Conscientiousness. Age was negatively correlated with Extraversion and Imagination. For girls, we also observed a decrease of Emotional Stability. A series of exploratory factor analyses confirmed the overall five-factor structure for girls and boys. Targeted factor analyses and congruence coefficients revealed high cross-language replicability at the domain and at the facet levels. The results showed that the French version of the HiPIC is a reliable and valid instrument for assessing personality with children and has a particularly high cross-language replicability.

Clustering of Schistosoma mansoni mRNA sequences and analysis of the most transcribed genes: implications in metabolism and biology of different developmental stages

The study of the Schistosoma mansoni genome, one of the etiologic agents of human schistosomiasis, is essential for a better understanding of the biology and development of this parasite. In order to get an overview of all S. mansoni catalogued gene sequences, we performed a clustering analysis of the parasite mRNA sequences available in public databases. This was made using softwares PHRAP and CAP3. The consensus sequences, generated after the alignment of cluster constituent sequences, allowed the identification by database homology searches of the most expressed genes in the worm. We analyzed these genes and looked for a correlation between their high expression and parasite metabolism and biology. We observed that the majority of these genes is related to the maintenance of basic cell functions, encoding genes whose products are related to the cytoskeleton, intracellular transport and energy metabolism. Evidences are presented here that genes for aerobic energy metabolism are expressed in all the developmental stages analyzed. Some of the most expressed genes could not be identified by homology searches and may have some specific functions in the parasite.

An empirical hierarchical Bayesian unification of occupational exposure assessment methods.

In occupational exposure assessment of airborne contaminants, exposure levels can either be estimated through repeated measurements of the pollutant concentration in air, expert judgment or through exposure models that use information on the conditions of exposure as input. In this report, we propose an empirical hierarchical Bayesian model to unify these approaches. Prior to any measurement, the hygienist conducts an assessment to generate prior distributions of exposure determinants. Monte-Carlo samples from these distributions feed two level-2 models: a physical, two-compartment model, and a non-parametric, neural network model trained with existing exposure data. The outputs of these two models are weighted according to the expert's assessment of their relevance to yield predictive distributions of the long-term geometric mean and geometric standard deviation of the worker's exposure profile (level-1 model). Bayesian inferences are then drawn iteratively from subsequent measurements of worker exposure. Any traditional decision strategy based on a comparison with occupational exposure limits (e.g. mean exposure, exceedance strategies) can then be applied. Data on 82 workers exposed to 18 contaminants in 14 companies were used to validate the model with cross-validation techniques. A user-friendly program running the model is available upon request.

A prospective, randomized, open label, phase iii clinical trial of novottf-100a vs best standard of care chemotherapy in patients with recurrent glioblastoma

BACKGROUND: Glioblastoma, the most common adult primary malignant brain tumor, confers poor prognosis (median survival of 15 months) notwithstanding aggressive treatment. Combination chemotherapy including carmustine (BCNU) or temozolomide (TMZ) with the MGMT inhibitor O6-benzylguanine (O6BG) has been used, but has been associated with dose-limiting hematopoietic toxicity. OBJECTIVE: To assess safety and efficacy of a retroviral vector encoding the O6BG-resistant MGMTP140K gene for transduction and autologous transplantation of hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) in MGMT unmethylated, newly diagnosed glioblastoma patients in an attempt to chemoprotect bone marrowduring combination O6BG/TMZ therapy. METHODS: Three patients have been enrolled in the first cohort. Patients underwent standard radiation therapy without TMZ followed by G-CSF mobilization, apheresis, and conditioning with 600 mg/m2 BCNU prior to infusion of gene-modified cells. Posttransplant, patients were treated with 28-day cycles of single doseTMZ (472 mg/m2) with 48-hour intravenous O6BG (120 mg/m2 bolus, then 30 mg/m2/d). RESULTS: The BCNU dose was nonmyeloablative with ANC ,500/mL for ≤3 d and nadir thrombocytopenia of 28,000/mL. Gene marking in pre-infusion colony forming units (CFUs) was 70.6%, 79.0%, and 74.0% in Patients 1, 2, and 3, respectively, by CFU-PCR. Following engraftment, gene marking in white blood cells and sorted granulocytes ranged between 0.37-0.84 and 0.33-0.83 provirus copies, respectively, by real-time PCR. Posttransplant gene marking in CFUs from CD34-selected cells ranged from 28.5% to 47.4%. Patients have received 4, 3, and 2 cycles of O6BG/TMZ, respectively, with evidence for selection of gene-modified cells. One patient has received a single dose-escalated cycle at 590 mg/m2 TMZ. No additional extra-hematopoietic toxicity has been observed thus far and all three patients exhibit stable disease at 7-8 months since diagnosis CONCLUSIONS: We believe that these data demonstrate the feasibility of achieving significant engraftment of MGMTP140K-modified cells with a well-tolerated dose of BCNU. Further follow-up will determine whether this approach will allow for further dose escalation of TMZ and improved survival.

Clustering and hot spot detection in socio-economic spatio-temporal data

Distribution of socio-economic features in urban space is an important source of information for land and transportation planning. The metropolization phenomenon has changed the distribution of types of professions in space and has given birth to different spatial patterns that the urban planner must know in order to plan a sustainable city. Such distributions can be discovered by statistical and learning algorithms through different methods. In this paper, an unsupervised classification method and a cluster detection method are discussed and applied to analyze the socio-economic structure of Switzerland. The unsupervised classification method, based on Ward's classification and self-organized maps, is used to classify the municipalities of the country and allows to reduce a highly-dimensional input information to interpret the socio-economic landscape. The cluster detection method, the spatial scan statistics, is used in a more specific manner in order to detect hot spots of certain types of service activities. The method is applied to the distribution services in the agglomeration of Lausanne. Results show the emergence of new centralities and can be analyzed in both transportation and social terms.

Improving Clustering Algorithms for Image Segmentation using Contour and Region Information

In image segmentation, clustering algorithms are very popular because they are intuitive and, some of them, easy to implement. For instance, the k-means is one of the most used in the literature, and many authors successfully compare their new proposal with the results achieved by the k-means. However, it is well known that clustering image segmentation has many problems. For instance, the number of regions of the image has to be known a priori, as well as different initial seed placement (initial clusters) could produce different segmentation results. Most of these algorithms could be slightly improved by considering the coordinates of the image as features in the clustering process (to take spatial region information into account). In this paper we propose a significant improvement of clustering algorithms for image segmentation. The method is qualitatively and quantitative evaluated over a set of synthetic and real images, and compared with classical clustering approaches. Results demonstrate the validity of this new approach