Knowledge based crime scenario modelling

A crucial concern in the evaluation of evidence related to a major crime is the formulation of sufficient alternative plausible scenarios that can explain the available evidence. However, software aimed at assisting human crime investigators by automatically constructing crime scenarios from evidence is difficult to develop because of the almost infinite variation of plausible crime scenarios. This paper introduces a novel knowledge driven methodology for crime scenario construction and it presents a decision support system based on it. The approach works by storing the component events of the scenarios instead of entire scenarios and by providing an algorithm that can instantiate and compose these component events into useful scenarios. The scenario composition approach is highly adaptable to unanticipated cases because it allows component events to match the case under investigation in many different ways. Given a description of the available evidence, it generates a network of plausible scenarios that can then be analysed to devise effective evidence collection strategies. The applicability of the ideas presented here are demonstrated by means of a realistic example and prototype decision support software.

Institucionalização do knowledge based view: um estudo das práticas gerenciais de gestão do conhecimento e suas contribuições para a competitividade das empresas do setor elétrico-eletrônico

A gestão do conhecimento (GC) é uma das recentes abordagens da administração contemporânea, cujo foco engloba o conceito de conhecimento como recurso estratégico, sendo que suas técnicas, práticas e iniciativas gerenciais encontram-se em momento de consolidação. Muitos estudos acadêmicos sobre gestão do conhecimento estão sendo realizados no campo da Administração, com o objetivo de sistematizar os conceitos, as práticas e as contribuições para o poder de competição das empresas (NONAKA e TAKEUCHI, 1997; EISENHARDT e SANTOS, 2000; PROBST, RAUB e ROMHARDT,2002; DALKIR, 2005). Esta pesquisa objetivou classificar as empresas do setor elétricoeletrônico brasileiro de acordo com o estágio de institucionalização da gestão do conhecimento, bem como verificar as contribuições das práticas de GC para seu poder competitivo. Foi realizado um survey a partir da listagem de 553 empresas elétricas e eletrônicas atuantes no Brasil e participantes da Associação Brasileira da Indústria Elétrica e Eletrônica (ABINEE), tendo sido averiguada uma amostra formada por 56 empresas respondentes. Os principais resultados encontrados foram: a) as empresas pesquisadas estão nos estágios iniciais de institucionalização de GC e b) as contribuições para o poder de competição, realizadas com adoção das práticas de GC, tinham como objetivo fortalecer a cultura de compartilhamento e disseminação do conhecimento, bem como, criar o ambiente favorável para o trabalho em equipe.

The implications of embodiment and Putty-Clay to economic development

In this paper we construct and analyze a growth model with the following three ingredients. (i) Technological progress is embodied. (ii) The production function of a firm is such that the firm makes both technology upgrade as well as capital and labor decisions. (iii) The firm’s production technology is putty-clay. We assume that there are disincentives to the accumulation of capital, resulting in a divergence between the social and the private cost of investment. We solve a single firm’s problem in this environment. Then we determine general equilibrium prices of capital goods of different vintages. Using these prices we aggregate firms’ decisions and construct the theoretical analogues of National Income statistics. This generates a relationship between disincentives and per capita incomes. We analyze this relationship and show the quantitative and qualitative roles of embodiment and putty-clay. We also show how the model is taken to data, quantified and used to determine to what extent income gaps across countries can be attributed to disincentives.

Exchange rate policies, patterns of specialization and economic development: theory and evidence in developing countries

The objectives of this paper are twofold. First, it intends to provide theoretical elements to analyze the relation between real exchange rates and economic development. Our main hypothesis is very much in line with the Dutch disease literature, and states that competitive currencies contribute to the existence and maintenance of the anufacturing sector in the economy. This, in turn, brings about higher growth rates in the long run, given the existence of increasing returns in the industrial sector, and its importance in generating echnological change and increasing productivity in the overall economy. The second objective of this paper is empirical. It intends to analyze examples of successful exchange rate policies, such as Chile and Indonesia in the eighties, as a benchmark for comparison with countries where currency overvaluation has taken place, such as Brazil. In the latter case, the local currency is being inflated by large capital inflows, due to high domestic interest rates and to a boom in demand and prices of commodities in the international markets. It will be argued that the industrial sector bears most of the burden when the currency appreciates, and that Brazil risks at deindustrialization if there are no changes in the exchange rate regime

Economic development and growth in West Africa: a multiple case study analysis of sovereign wealth funds’ investments and performance

Durante a recente crise da dívida soberana europeia, os fundos soberanos demonstraram seu peso na esfera financeira global. Contribuíram para salvar o sistema financeiro dos países desenvolvidos, distribuindo créditos que as entidades financeiras tradicionais do Norte não podiam mais providenciar. Em 2012, os ativos totais desses fundos atingiram USD 4.620 bilhões, comparado aos USD 3.355 bilhões de antes da crise, no final de 2007 (Preqin, 2012). Sendo quase todos criados por economias em desenvolvimento ou subdesenvolvidas, os fundos soberanos podem então ser vistos como o símbolo de um recente reequilíbrio do poder a favor desses países (Santiso, 2008). Além disso, em um futuro próximo, espera-se que os fundos soberanos afastem-se dos países desenvolvidos para investir mais em países em desenvolvimento. Nesse contexto, os países africanos estão cada vez mais alvos de investimentos dos fundos (Triki & Faye, 2011). O estudo subjacente analisa dois fundos, o IFC ALAC e o Mubadala Development Company, para entender como, de acordo com as percepções dos seus gestores, os fundos soberanos podem ajudar no desenvolvimento dos países beneficiários. Mais precisamente, trata-se definir, através de um estudo de casos múltiplos, quais são os mecanismos pelos quais os fundos soberanos podem impactar o desenvolvimento da África ocidental. Os resultados sugerem que, segundo os gestores, os fundos soberanos podem desempenhar um papel significativo no desenvolvimento dos países beneficiários. Eles investem em alguns setores-chave da economia (bancos, infraestruturas etc.), criando condições favoráveis ao desenvolvimento local. Além disso, através de um efeito multiplicador, os investimentos dos fundos soberanos alavancam novos investimentos do setor privado local ou global, fortalecendo o tecido industrial e produtivo do país beneficiário. Porém, parece que as empresas beneficiárias não ajudam nas transferências de conhecimento e de tecnologia, embora sejam essenciais para o desenvolvimento econômico, e se limitam a programas de treinamento específico e de RSE. Além disso, apesar dos investimentos de fundos soberanos impulsionarem o crescimento da região, eles também podem agravar a dependência dessas economias à exportação de commodities. Finalmente, os impactos positivos dos fundos soberanos sobre a economia regional são muitas vezes reduzidos devido a conflitos políticos e barreiras estruturais exigindo reformas profundas e de longo prazo.

Brazil and Turkey, a comparative analysis of both countries' economic development and institutional design from the Great Depression to the early 21st century

Apos uma década de rápido crescimento econômico na primeira década do século 21, Brasil e Turquia foram considerados duas das economias emergentes mais dinâmicas e promissoras. No entanto, vários sinais de dificuldades econômicas e tensões políticas reapareceram recentemente e simultaneamente nos dois países. Acreditamos que esses sinais e a sua simultaneidade podem ser entendidos melhor com um olhar retrospectivo sobre a história econômica dos dois países, que revela ser surpreendentemente paralela. Numa primeira parte, empreendemos uma comparação abrangente da história econômica brasileira e turca para mostrar as numerosas similaridades entre os desafios de política econômica que os dois países enfrentaram, assim como entre as respostas que eles lhes deram desde a virada da Grande Depressão até a primeira década do século 21. Essas escolhas de política econômica comuns dão forma a uma trajetória de desenvolvimento notavelmente análoga, caracterizada primeiro pela adoção do modelo de industrialização por substituição das importações (ISI) no contexto da recessão mundial dos anos 1930; depois pela intensificação e crise final desse modelo nos anos 1980; e finalmente por duas décadas de estabilização e transição para um modelo econômico mais liberal. Numa segunda parte, o desenvolvimento das instituições econômicas e políticas, assim como da economia política subjacente nos dois países, são analisados comparativamente a fim de prover alguns elementos de explicação do paralelo observado na primeira parte. Sustentamos que o marco institucional estabelecido nos dois países durante esse período também têm varias características fundamentais em comum e contribui a explicar as escolhas de política econômica e as performances econômicas comparáveis, detalhadas na primeira parte. Este estudo aborda elementos do contexto histórico úteis para compreender a situação econômica e política atual nos dois países. Potencialmente também constitui uma tentativa de considerar as economias emergentes numa perspectiva histórica e comparativa mais ampla para entender melhor as suas fraquezas institucionais e adotar um olhar mais equilibrado sobre seu potencial econômico.

Judicial system performance and economic development

The role of judicial systems in determining economic perfonnance has gained increasingly attention in recent years. Nonetheless, the literature lacks a clearly articulated framework to examine how judicial systems influence the investment and production decisions of economic agents. This paper tries to till in this gap. It examines what constitutes a well-functioning judiciary, analyzes how dysfunctional judicial systems compromise economic growth, and reviews the relevant empirical literature. It concludes with some remarks about why, despite the widespread perception that well-functioning legal and judicial systems are key to the success of market-oriented reforms in developing and transition countries, judicial refonn has lagged so much behind other reforms.

JML- Based formal development of a Java card application for managing medical appointments

Although formal methods can dramatically increase the quality of software systems, they have not widely been adopted in software industry. Many software companies have the perception that formal methods are not cost-effective cause they are plenty of mathematical symbols that are difficult for non-experts to assimilate. The Java Modelling Language (short for JML) Section 3.3 is an academic initiative towards the development of a common formal specification language for Java programs, and the implementation of tools to check program correctness. This master thesis work shows how JML based formal methods can be used to formally develop a privacy sensitive Java application. This is a smart card application for managing medical appointments. The application is named HealthCard. We follow the software development strategy introduced by João Pestana, presented in Section 3.4. Our work influenced the development of this strategy by providing hands-on insight on challenges related to development of a privacy sensitive application in Java. Pestana’s strategy is based on a three-step evolution strategy of software specifications, from informal ones, through semiformal ones, to JML formal specifications. We further prove that this strategy can be automated by implementing a tool that generates JML formal specifications from a welldefined subset of informal software specifications. Hence, our work proves that JML-based formal methods techniques are cost-effective, and that they can be made popular in software industry. Although formal methods are not popular in many software development companies, we endeavour to integrate formal methods to general software practices. We hope our work can contribute to a better acceptance of mathematical based formalisms and tools used by software engineers. The structure of this document is as follows. In Section 2, we describe the preliminaries of this thesis work. We make an introduction to the application for managing medical applications we have implemented. We also describe the technologies used in the development of the application. This section further illustrates the Java Card Remote Method Invocation communication model used in the medical application for the client and server applications. Section 3 introduces software correctness, including the design by contract and the concept of contract in JML. Section 4 presents the design structure of the application. Section 5 shows the implementation of the HealthCard. Section 6 describes how the HealthCard is verified and validated using JML formal methods tools. Section 7 includes some metrics of the HealthCard implementation and specification. Section 8 presents a short example of how a client-side of a smart card application can be implemented while respecting formal specifications. Section 9 describes a prototype tools to generate JML formal specifications from informal specifications automatically. Section 10 describes some challenges and main ideas came acrorss during the development of the HealthCard. The full formal specification and implementation of the HealthCard smart card application presented in this document can be reached at https://sourceforge.net/projects/healthcard/.

Knowledge-based integrated production management model

Purpose - This paper aims to propose a model of production management that integrates knowledge management, as a third dimension, to the production and work dimensions and to identify factors that promote a favorable context for knowledge sharing and results achievement in the production operations shop floor environment.Design/methodology/approach - The model proposed is built from opportunities identified in the literature review.Findings - The factors in the model integrate its three main components: knowledge management, production organization and work organization, providing a representation of the dynamics of the workplace and shop floor environment.Practical implications - The proposed model and its factors allow managers to better understand and to improve the organization activities, because it integrates knowledge management with the production organization and work organization components of traditional models.Originality/value - Literature acknowledges the role of knowledge as competitive advantage, but it is still dealt in an implicit way within the traditional models of production management. This paper proposes a model and factors that provide a favorable context for tacit knowledge sharing and results achievement in the production operations shop floor environment. The model explicitly integrates knowledge management with traditional models' components.

Growth, disequilibrium and disparities: interpretation of the process of economic development

Includes bibliography

Economic development of Argentine

Includes bibliography