885 resultados para increase in risk


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Tamoxifen is a major drug used for adjuvant chemotherapy of breast cancer; however, its use has been associated with a small but significant increase in risk of endometrial cancer. In rats, tamoxifen is a hepatocarcinogen, and DNA adducts have been observed in both rat and human tissues. Tamoxifen has been shown previously to be metabolized to reactive products that have the potential to form protein and DNA adducts. Previous studies have suggested a role for P450 3A4 in protein adduct formation in human liver microsomes, via a catechol intermediate; however, no clear correlation was seen between P450 3A4 content of human liver microsomes and adduct formation. In the present study, we investigated the P450 forms responsible for covalent drug-protein adduct formation and the possibility that covalent adduct formation might occur via alternative pathways to catechol formation. Recombinant P450 3A4 catalyzed adduct formation, and this correlated with the level of uncoupling in the P450 incubation, consistent with a role of reactive oxygen species in potentiating adduct formation after enzymatic formation of the catechol metabolite. Whereas P450s 1AI, 2D6, and 3A5 generated catechol metabolite, no covalent adduct formation was observed with these forms. By contrast, P450 2136, 2C19, and rat liver microsomes catalyzed drug-protein adduct formation but not catechol formation. Drug protein adducts formed specifically with P450 3A4 in incubations using membranes isolated from bacteria expressing P450 3A4 and reductase, as well as in reconstitutions of purified 3A4, suggesting that the electrophilic species reacted preferentially with the P450 enzymes concerned.

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Os fundos de investimento imobiliário combinam características tanto do mercado imobiliário, fonte de seus rendimentos, quanto do mercado de capitais, ambiente em que são negociados. O impacto de cada um desses mercados subjacentes no comportamento, desempenho e risco dessa classe de ativos não é, no entanto, ainda claramente definida, sendo um dos grandes temas em análise, tanto na literatura acadêmica, quanto na indústria de fundos internacionais. Em face da significativa expansão dessa alternativa de investimento no mercado brasileiro, no presente estudo foram analisadas as variáveis que influenciam os retornos dos fundos imobiliários brasileiros para uma amostra de fundos listados em Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo, período de 2008-2013. Seguindo a metodologia de Clayton e Mackinnon (2003), os fatores explicativos dos retornos foram decompostos em quatro componentes principais, sendo três fatores de retorno de mercado (mercado de ações, mercado de renda fixa e mercado imobiliário) e risco idiossincrático. De acordo com a estatística descritiva, os fundos imobiliários da amostra apresentaram maior retorno em relação aos demais mercados, exceto em comparação com o mercado imobiliário, porém com menor risco. As análises de correlação, regressão e decomposição da variância indicam que o mercado de ações e o mercado imobiliário direto são, em geral, significativos no modelo, porém explicam apenas cerca de 15% da volatilidade dos retornos dos fundos da amostra. À luz da Moderna Teoria do Portfólio, esses resultados indicam que a inclusão de fundos imobiliários pode ter potencial diversificador numa carteira multi-ativo, seja aumentando o retorno total de uma carteira formada de ações e títulos de renda fixa, sem acréscimo em risco; ou mantendo o retorno dessa carteira, com diminuição da volatilidade, ampliando assim a fronteira eficiente da carteira. Esse efeito questiona o tradicional equilibrium fund de carteiras de investimentos formadas apenas de ações e renda fixa e aponta os fundos imobiliários como uma alternativa de investimento diversificadora, enquanto classe de ativo única. A análise de subamostras por tipologia indica, porém, que o papel diversificador dos fundos imobiliários está atrelado ao tipo de empreendimento que lastreia esse fundo, uma vez que os fatores explicativos e seus impactos nos retornos diferem de uma tipologia para outra. Esse resultado tem importantes implicações no critério de seleção a ser adotado tanto por investidores para seleção de ativos para uma carteira otimizada, como para gestores de fundos imobiliários na formatação e gestão desses produtos. Conclui-se também que os retornos dos fundos, de certo modo, refletem seu caráter híbrido, mas o modelo decomposto em 4 componentes não é suficiente para explicar os retornos dos fundos imobiliários, uma vez que o modelo estendido, demonstrou que outras variáveis, inclusive parâmetros desses próprios mercados, além de variáveis macroeconômicas e as características de cada fundo (eg. market-to-book, tamanho), podem ser responsáveis por explicar considerável parte da variância dos retornos dos FIIs.

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INTRODUCTION: Alterations in lipid metabolism and bone mineral metabolism disturbances are common disorders among renal transplant patients, contributing to the apparition of oxidative metabolic and cardiovascular diseases that threaten the integrity of the graft. AIMS: Describe and observe the evolution of alterations in bone mineral density (BMD) and lipid abnormalities in a population of kidney transplant patients. MATERIAL AND METHOD: The samples consisted of 119 kidney transplant patients of both sexes, measurements were performed pretransplant and posttransplant for five years of biochemical parameters, anthropometric measurements and measurement of bone mineral density at the lumbar spine, femur and radioulnar. RESULTS: During the five years after transplantation a significant increase in biochemical parameters, BMI, dyslipidemia, diabetes and hypertension occurs. At six months there is a high percentage of patients with pathologic BMD increase by 4.1% per year of transplantation. CONCLUSIONS: After kidney transplantation, a large increase of hyperlipidemia associated with a characteristic pattern of altered lipid with elevated total cholesterol, low density lipoprotein, high density lipoprotein, and the resulting increase in triglycerides, occurs despite statin therapy, leading to an increase in risk factors for diabetes, hypertension, diseases and cardiovascualres further loss of bone mass which carries a high risk of serious fractures occurs, threatening kidney graft and quality of life of patients.

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Menopause timing has a substantial impact on infertility and risk of disease, including breast cancer, but the underlying mechanisms are poorly understood. We report a dual strategy in ∼70,000 women to identify common and low-frequency protein-coding variation associated with age at natural menopause (ANM). We identified 44 regions with common variants, including two regions harboring additional rare missense alleles of large effect. We found enrichment of signals in or near genes involved in delayed puberty, highlighting the first molecular links between the onset and end of reproductive lifespan. Pathway analyses identified major association with DNA damage response (DDR) genes, including the first common coding variant in BRCA1 associated with any complex trait. Mendelian randomization analyses supported a causal effect of later ANM on breast cancer risk (∼6% increase in risk per year; P = 3 × 10(-14)), likely mediated by prolonged sex hormone exposure rather than DDR mechanisms.

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Genome-wide linkage studies have identified the 9q22 chromosomal region as linked with colorectal cancer (CRC) predisposition. A candidate gene in this region is transforming growth factor beta receptor 1 (TGFBR1). Investigation of TGFBR1 has focused on the common genetic variant rs11466445, a short exonic deletion of nine base pairs which results in truncation of a stretch of nine alanine residues to six alanine residues in the gene product. While the six alanine (*6A) allele has been reported to be associated with increased risk of CRC in some population based study groups this association remains the subject of robust debate. To date, reports have been limited to population-based case-control association studies, or case-control studies of CRC families selecting one affected individual per family. No study has yet taken advantage of all the genetic information provided by multiplex CRC families. Methods: We have tested for an association between rs11466445 and risk of CRC using several family-based statistical tests in a new study group comprising members of non-syndromic high risk CRC families sourced from three familial cancer centres, two in Australia and one in Spain. Results: We report a finding of a nominally significant result using the pedigree-based association test approach (PBAT; p = 0.028), while other family-based tests were non-significant, but with a p-value < 0.10 in each instance. These other tests included the Generalised Disequilibrium Test (GDT; p = 0.085), parent of origin GDT Generalised Disequilibrium Test (GDT-PO; p = 0.081) and empirical Family-Based Association Test (FBAT; p = 0.096, additive model). Related-person case-control testing using the 'More Powerful' Quasi-Likelihood Score Test did not provide any evidence for association (M-QL5; p = 0.41). Conclusions: After conservatively taking into account considerations for multiple hypothesis testing, we find little evidence for an association between the TGFBR1*6A allele and CRC risk in these families. The weak support for an increase in risk in CRC predisposed families is in agreement with recent meta-analyses of case-control studies, which estimate only a modest increase in sporadic CRC risk among 6*A allele carriers.

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In this article we study the effect of uncertainty on an entrepreneur who must choose the capacity of his business before knowing the demand for his product. The unit profit of operation is known with certainty but there is no flexibility in our one-period framework. We show how the introduction of global uncertainty reduces the investment of the risk neutral entrepreneur and, even more, that the risk averse one. We also show how marginal increases in risk reduce the optimal capacity of both the risk neutral and the risk averse entrepreneur, without any restriction on the concave utility function and with limited restrictions on the definition of a mean preserving spread. These general results are explained by the fact that the newsboy has a piecewise-linear, and concave, monetary payoff witha kink endogenously determined at the level of optimal capacity. Our results are compared with those in the two literatures on price uncertainty and demand uncertainty, and particularly, with the recent contributions of Eeckhoudt, Gollier and Schlesinger (1991, 1995).

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In this article we study the effect of uncertainty on an entrepreneur who must choose the capacity of his business before knowing the demand for his product. The unit profit of operation is known with certainty but there is no flexibility in our one-period framework. We show how the introduction of global uncertainty reduces the investment of the risk neutral entrepreneur and, even more, that the risk averse one. We also show how marginal increases in risk reduce the optimal capacity of both the risk neutral and the risk averse entrepreneur, without any restriction on the concave utility function and with limited restrictions on the definition of a mean preserving spread. These general results are explained by the fact that the newsboy has a piecewise-linear, and concave, monetary payoff witha kink endogenously determined at the level of optimal capacity. Our results are compared with those in the two literatures on price uncertainty and demand uncertainty, and particularly, with the recent contributions of Eeckhoudt, Gollier and Schlesinger (1991, 1995).

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La fibrose kystique (FK) est une des maladies rares la plus fréquente au Canada avec un âge médian de survie de 50.9 ans. Toutefois, l'amélioration de l’espérance de vie est associée à l'émergence de complications secondaires telles que le diabète associé à la FK (DAFK). Présent chez 25 à 40% des adultes, il augmente de 6 fois le risque de morbidité et de mortalité. Plusieurs études sur des populations atteintes de diabète de type 2 ont démontrés les bienfaits de programmes d’exercices combinés (aérobie et résistance) sur l’amélioration du contrôle glycémique. L’objectif de l’étude visait à déterminer si un programme d’exercices combinés permettait d’améliorer les anomalies de la tolérance au glucose et le contrôle glycémique chez les patients atteints de FK. Méthodologie: 18 adultes atteints de FK, sédentaires avec une intolérance au glucose ont été recrutés pour cette étude (8 hommes, 10 femmes, âge: 33 ± 9.4 ans, FEV1 71.5% pred ± 12.5, IMC 23.57 kg/m2 ± 3,4). Les participants ont été assignés au hasard à un groupe contrôle ou exercice. Les tests suivants ont été réalisés avant et après l’intervention : VO2max, HGPO, mesure de l'endurance et de la force musculaire, ainsi qu’un questionnaire sur la qualité de vie. Résultats: 14 participants ont complété le protocole. Les participants du groupe exercice ont amélioré leur valeur de glycémie plasmatique à la 2e heure de l’HGPO (-2.34 +/- 0.87 mmol/L; p <0.01; CI 99.22%), à la 1re heure de l’HGPO (-2.0 mmol/L; p<0.05) et ont présenté une réduction de 17.2% (p<0.05) de l’aire sous la courbe de glucose. Conclusion: Un programme d'exercices combinés améliore le contrôle glycémique chez les patients atteints de FK. Cette approche thérapeutique non-pharmacologique pourrait offrir une intervention ayant le potentiel de retarder l'apparition de DAFK.

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This study considers the consistency of the role of both the private and public real estate markets within a mixed-asset context. While a vast literature has developed that has examined the potential role of both the private and public real estate markets, most studies have largely relied on both single time horizons and single sample periods. This paper builds upon the analysis of Lee and Stevenson (2005) who examined the consistency of REITs in a US capital market portfolio. The current paper extends that by also analyzing the role of the private market. To address the question, the allocation of both the private and traded markets is evaluated over different holding periods varying from 5- to 20-years. In general the results show that optimum mixed-asset portfolios already containing private real estate have little place for public real estate securities, especially in low risk portfolios and for longer investment horizons. Additionally, mixed-asset portfolios with public real estate either see the allocations to REITs diminished or eliminated if private real estate is also considered. The results demonstrate that there is a still a strong case for private real estate in the mixed-asset portfolio on the basis of an increase in risk-adjusted performance, even if the investor is already holding REITs, but that the reverse is not always the case.

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BACKGROUND CONTEXT: The relationships between obesity and low back pain (LBP) and lumbar disc degeneration (LDD) remain unclear. It is possible that familial factors, including genetics and early environment, affect these relationships.PURPOSE: To investigate the relationship between obesity-related measures (eg, weight, body mass index [BMI]) and LBP and LDD using twin studies, where the effect of genetics and early environment can be controlled.STUDY DESIGN: A systematic review with meta-analysis.METHODS: MEDLINE, CINAHL, Scopus, Web of Science, and EMBASE databases were searched from the earliest records to August 2014. All cross-sectional and longitudinal observational twin studies identified by the search strategy were considered for inclusion. Two investigators independently assessed the eligibility, conducted the quality assessment, and extracted the data. Metaanalyses (fixed or random effects, as appropriate) were used to pool studies'estimates of association.RESULTS: In total, 11 articles met the inclusion criteria. Five studies were included in the LBP analysis and seven in the LDD analysis. For the LBP analysis, pooling of the five studies showed that the risk of having LBP for individuals with the highest levels of BMI or weight was almost twice that of people with a lower BMI (odds ratio [OR] 1.8; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.6-2.0; I-2 = 0%). A dose-response relationship was also identified. When genetics and the effects of a shared early environment were adjusted for using a within-pair twin case-control analysis, pooling of three studies showed a reduced but statistically positive association between obesity and prevalence of LBP (OR 1.5; 95% CI 1.1-2.1; I-2 = 0%). However, the association was further diminished and not significant (OR 1.4; 95% CI 0.8-2.3; I-2 = 0%) when pooling included two studies on monozygotic twin pairs only. Seven studies met the inclusion criteria for LDD. When familial factors were not controlled for, body weight was positively associated with LDD in all five cross-sectional studies. Only two cross-sectional studies investigated the relationship between obesity-related measures and LDD accounting for familial factors, and the results were conflicting. One longitudinal study in LBP and three longitudinal studies in LDD found no increase in risk in obese individuals, whether or not familial factors were controlled for.CONCLUSIONS: Findings from this review suggest that genetics and early environment are possible mechanisms underlying the relationship between obesity and LBP; however, a direct causal link between these conditions appears to be weak. Further longitudinal studies using the twin design are needed to better understand the complex mechanisms underlying the associations between obesity, LBP, and LDD.

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INTRODUCTION There is a need to assess risk of second primary cancers in prostate cancer (PCa) patients, especially since PCa treatment may be associated with increased risk of second primary tumours. METHODS We calculated standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) for second primary tumours comparing men diagnosed with PCa between 1980 and 2010 in the Canton of Zurich, Switzerland (n = 20,559), and the general male population in the Canton. RESULTS A total of 1,718 men developed a second primary tumour after PCa diagnosis, with lung and colon cancer being the most common (15 and 13% respectively). The SIR for overall second primary cancer was 1.11 (95%CI: 1.06-1.17). Site-specific SIRs varied from 1.19 (1.05-1.34) to 2.89 (2.62-4.77) for lung and thyroid cancer, respectively. When stratified by treatment, the highest SIR was observed for thyroid cancer (3.57 (1.30-7.76)) when undergoing surgery, whereas liver cancer was common when treated with radiotherapy (3.21 (1.54-5.90)) and kidney bladder was most prevalent for those on hormonal treatment (3.15 (1.93-4.87)). Stratification by time since PCa diagnosis showed a lower risk of cancer for men with PCa compared to the general population for the first four years, but then a steep increase in risk was observed. CONCLUSION In the Canton of Zurich, there was an increased risk of second primary cancers among men with PCa compared to the general population. Increased diagnostic activity after PCa diagnosis may partly explain increased risks within the first years of diagnosis, but time-stratified analyses indicated that increased risks remained and even increased over time.

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Esta tese analisa, entre 2005 e 2013, o impacto das políticas governamentais de resgate sobre o risco do setor bancário nos países da OCDE. Primeiro, em linha com a hipótese de moral hazard, verifica-se que instituições financeiras com expectativa elevada de bailout, assumem riscos mais elevados do que as demais. Segundo, constata-se que, em períodos normais, garantias de socorro às grandes instituições distorcem a competição no setor e incrementa o risco das demais. Durante a crise, entretanto, mostra-se que elevações na expectativa de resgate dos concorrentes de uma instituição, à medida que representa uma redução em sua chance de eventual socorro governamental, diminuem sua tomada de riscos. Adicionalmente, em período de crise também é evidenciado que: reduções na capacidade financeira dos países estão associadas a menor assunção de riscos; em média, o aumento na tomada de riscos é maior nos países com menor spread de Credit Default Swap.

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Schizophrenia is a common disorder with high heritability and a 10-fold increase in risk to siblings of probands. Replication has been inconsistent for reports of significant genetic linkage. To assess evidence for linkage across studies, rank-based genome scan meta-analysis (GSMA) was applied to data from 20 schizophrenia genome scans. Each marker for each scan was assigned to 1 of 120 30-cM bins, with the bins ranked by linkage scores (1 = most significant) and the ranks averaged across studies (R-avg) and then weighted for sample size (rootN[affected cases]). A permutation test was used to compute the probability of observing, by chance, each bin's average rank (P-AvgRnk) or of observing it for a bin with the same place (first, second, etc.) in the order of average ranks in each permutation (P-ord). The GSMA produced significant genomewide evidence for linkage on chromosome 2q (P-AvgRnk

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The first step in conservation planning is to identify objectives. Most stated objectives for conservation, such as to maximize biodiversity outcomes, are too vague to be useful within a decision-making framework. One way to clarify the issue is to define objectives in terms of the risk of extinction for multiple species. Although the assessment of extinction risk for single species is common, few researchers have formulated an objective function that combines the extinction risks of multiple species. We sought to translate the broad goal of maximizing the viability of species into explicit objectives for use in a decision-theoretic approach to conservation planning. We formulated several objective functions based on extinction risk across many species and illustrated the differences between these objectives with simple examples. Each objective function was the mathematical representation of an approach to conservation and emphasized different levels of threat Our objectives included minimizing the joint probability of one or more extinctions, minimizing the expected number of extinctions, and minimizing the increase in risk of extinction from the best-case scenario. With objective functions based on joint probabilities of extinction across species, any correlations in extinction probabilities bad to be known or the resultant decisions were potentially misleading. Additive objectives, such as the expected number of extinctions, did not produce the same anomalies. We demonstrated that the choice of objective function is central to the decision-making process because alternative objective functions can lead to a different ranking of management options. Therefore, decision makers need to think carefully in selecting and defining their conservation goals.

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Prior research has established that idiosyncratic volatility of the securities prices exhibits a positive trend. This trend and other factors have made the merits of investment diversification and portfolio construction more compelling. ^ A new optimization technique, a greedy algorithm, is proposed to optimize the weights of assets in a portfolio. The main benefits of using this algorithm are to: (a) increase the efficiency of the portfolio optimization process, (b) implement large-scale optimizations, and (c) improve the resulting optimal weights. In addition, the technique utilizes a novel approach in the construction of a time-varying covariance matrix. This involves the application of a modified integrated dynamic conditional correlation GARCH (IDCC - GARCH) model to account for the dynamics of the conditional covariance matrices that are employed. ^ The stochastic aspects of the expected return of the securities are integrated into the technique through Monte Carlo simulations. Instead of representing the expected returns as deterministic values, they are assigned simulated values based on their historical measures. The time-series of the securities are fitted into a probability distribution that matches the time-series characteristics using the Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit criterion. Simulated and actual data sets are used to further generalize the results. Employing the S&P500 securities as the base, 2000 simulated data sets are created using Monte Carlo simulation. In addition, the Russell 1000 securities are used to generate 50 sample data sets. ^ The results indicate an increase in risk-return performance. Choosing the Value-at-Risk (VaR) as the criterion and the Crystal Ball portfolio optimizer, a commercial product currently available on the market, as the comparison for benchmarking, the new greedy technique clearly outperforms others using a sample of the S&P500 and the Russell 1000 securities. The resulting improvements in performance are consistent among five securities selection methods (maximum, minimum, random, absolute minimum, and absolute maximum) and three covariance structures (unconditional, orthogonal GARCH, and integrated dynamic conditional GARCH). ^