On the sources of the Great Moderation

The remarkable decline in macroeconomic volatility experienced by the U.S. economy since the mid-80s (the so-called Great Moderation) has been accompanied by large changes in the patterns of comovements among output, hours and labor productivity. Those changes are reflected in both conditional and unconditional second moments as well as in the impulse responses to identified shocks. That evidencepoints to structural change, as opposed to just good luck, as an explanation for the Great Moderation. We use a simple macro model to suggest some of the immediate sources which are likely to be behindthe observed changes.

Do expectations matter? The Great Moderation revisited

We examine the role of expectations in the Great Moderation episode. We derive theoretical restrictions in a New-Keynesian model and test them using measures of expectations obtained from survey data, the Greenbook and bond markets. Expectations explain the dynamics of inflation and of interest rates but their importance is roughly unchanged over time. Systems with and without expectations display similar reduced form characteristics. Including or excluding expectations hardly changes the economic explanation of the Great Moderation. Results are robust to changes in the structure of the empirical model.

Uranium-enrichment in soils and plants in the vicinity of a pitchblende vein at La Creusaz-Les Marecottes (W of Martigny, Valais, Switzerland)

In the NE part of the Aiguilles Rouges Massif near Martigny, at the eastern contact of the Variscan Vallorcine granite to adjacent gneisses, a series of pitchblende (UO2)-veins occur. This paper determines the level of enrichment and mobility of uranium in soils situated in the vicinity of such a UO2-vein 7 km west of Martigny. Within an area of 50 x 100 m, situated on a relatively steep slope and characterized by a strong gramma-ray anomaly, six soil profiles including their plant cover and a reference soil profile outside the influence of the UO2-vein have been examined. The soil shows pH-values between 4 and 5 and is colluvial. The applied analytical methods for the metal contents include extraction methods, common for soil studies, and bulk analysis performed with X-ray fluorescence and ICP-MS. Uranium contents found in the uppermost 20 cm of the soil profiles vary from 2,500 ppm close to the vein to 15 ppm at the lowermost point of the study area. The reference soil has around 3 ppm uranium. At greater depth (20 to 40 cm) the U-content decreases to about half of the surface values, indicating a vertical transport of uranium within the soil profile. No systematic dependance of uranium-contents to grain size (amount of clay) nor to the amount of organic matter has been found. However, the good correlation between uranium and free iron oxide concentration suggests adsorption of uranium on iron oxy-hydroxides. The ashes of grass and mosses contain up to 90 ppm U, the blueberry and redwood only up to 3 ppm. Our observations suggest that at the surface the uranium is transported by downhill creep (solifluxion) of uranium-rich rock fragments. Liberated by oxidation of the uppermost fragments in a given soil column, the uranium migrates vertically until the conditions are favourable to adsorption onto Fe-oxy-hydroxides. However, as high U-contents of local surface water show, this adsorption does not lead to a significant retention of the uranium.

A burst of segmental duplications in the genome of the African great ape ancestor

It is generally accepted that the extent of phenotypic change between human and great apes is dissonant with the rate of molecular change. Between these two groups, proteins are virtually identical, cytogenetically there are few rearrangements that distinguish ape-human chromosomes, and rates of single-base-pair change and retrotransposon activity have slowed particularly within hominid lineages when compared to rodents or monkeys. Studies of gene family evolution indicate that gene loss and gain are enriched within the primate lineage. Here, we perform a systematic analysis of duplication content of four primate genomes (macaque, orang-utan, chimpanzee and human) in an effort to understand the pattern and rates of genomic duplication during hominid evolution. We find that the ancestral branch leading to human and African great apes shows the most significant increase in duplication activity both in terms of base pairs and in terms of events. This duplication acceleration within the ancestral species is significant when compared to lineage-specific rate estimates even after accounting for copy-number polymorphism and homoplasy. We discover striking examples of recurrent and independent gene-containing duplications within the gorilla and chimpanzee that are absent in the human lineage. Our results suggest that the evolutionary properties of copy-number mutation differ significantly from other forms of genetic mutation and, in contrast to the hominid slowdown of single-base-pair mutations, there has been a genomic burst of duplication activity at this period during human evolution.

The great diversification and its undoing

We investigate the hypothesis that macroeconomic fluctuations are primitively theresults of many microeconomic shocks, and show that it has significant explanatorypower for the evolution of macroeconomic volatility. We define ?fundamental? volatilityas the volatility that would arise from an economy made entirely of idiosyncratic microeconomicshocks, occurring primitively at the level of sectors or firms. In its empiricalconstruction, motivated by a simple model, the sales share of different sectors vary overtime (in a way we directly measure), while the volatility of those sectors remains constant.We find that fundamental volatility accounts for the swings in macroeconomicvolatility in the US and the other major world economies in the past half century. Itaccounts for the ?great moderation? and its undoing. Controlling for our measure offundamental volatility, there is no break in output volatility. The initial great moderationis due to a decreasing share of manufacturing between 1975 and 1985. The recentrise of macroeconomic volatility is due to the increase of the size of the financial sector.We provide a model to think quantitatively about the large comovement generated byidiosyncratic shocks. As the origin of aggregate shocks can be traced to identifiablemicroeconomic shocks, we may better understand the origins of aggregate fluctuations.

Low-pressure environment and remodelling of the forearm vein in Brescia-Cimino haemodialysis access.

BACKGROUND: The aim of the study was to determine which, and to what extent, haemodynamic parameters contribute to the remodelling of the venous limb of the Brescia-Cimino haemodialysis access. METHODS: The dimensions of the radial artery and the venous limb of the haemodialysis access were measured by an echo-tracking technique. In six ESRD patients undergoing primary arteriovenous fistula (AVF) formation, vessel diameter, wall thickness, blood pressure and blood flow were measured after the operation, and at 1 and 3 months follow-up. The contralateral forearm vessels in their native position served as baseline values for comparison. RESULTS: The diameter of the proximal antecubital vein progressively increased over the study period without reaching significant differences (4430, 5041 and 6620 microm at weeks 1, 4 and 12 respectively), whereas the intima-media thickness remained unchanged. The venous dilatation was associated with a reduction of the mean shear stress that culminated after the operation and progressively returned to normal venous values at 3 months (24.5 vs 10.4 dyne/cm(2), P<0.043). Thus the venous limb of the AVF undergoes eccentric hypertrophy as demonstrated by the increase in wall cross-sectional area (4.42 vs 6.32 mm(2) at week 1 vs week 12, P<0.028). At the time of the operation, the blood pressure in the AVF was 151+/-14/92.4+/-11 mmHg vs 49+/-19/24.5+/-6 mmHg (means+/-SEM) for the radial artery and the venous limb of the vascular access, respectively. One year after the operation the blood pressure in the venous limb had not changed: 42+/-14/25.3+/-7 mmHg (means+/-SEM). Under these conditions, the systolo-diastolic diameter changes observed in the radial artery and the antecubital vein were within a similar range at all time points: 56+/-17 vs 90+/-26 microm (means+/-SEM) at week 12. CONCLUSIONS: The increased circumferential stress resulting from the flow-mediated dilatation rather than the elevation of blood pressure appears to represent the main contributing factor to the eccentric hypertrophy of the venous limb of Brescia-Cimino haemodialysis access.

SOST expression is restricted to the great arteries during embryonic and neonatal cardiovascular development.

Spatial-temporal regulation of bone morphogenetic protein (BMP) and Wnt activity is essential for normal cardiovascular development, and altered activity of these growth factors causes maldevelopment of the cardiac outflow tract and great arteries. In the present study, we show that SOST, a Dan family member reported to antagonize BMP and Wnt activity, is expressed within the medial vessel wall of the great arteries containing smooth muscle cells. The ascending aorta, aortic arch, brachiocephalic artery, common carotids, and pulmonary trunk were all associated with SOST expressing smooth muscle cells, while the heart itself, including the valves, and more distal arteries, that is, pulmonary arteries, subclavian arteries, and descending aorta, were negative. SOST was expressed from embryonic day 15.5 up to the neonatal period. SOST expression, however, did not correspond with inhibition of Smad-dependent BMP activity or beta-catenin-dependent Wnt activity in the great arteries. Activity of both signaling pathways was already down-regulated before induction of SOST expression.

Prenatal brain atrophy due to a giant vein of Galen malformation.

We report a full-term newborn girl with a giant vein of Galen malformation and extreme cerebral atrophy of prenatal origin. She presented on the 3rd day of life with intractable congestive heart failure. The diagnosis of the vascular malformation was confirmed by ultrasound and magnetic resonance imaging.

Multiples hyperplasies nodulaires focales hépatiques associées à une agénésie congénitale de la veine porte [Multiple focal nodular hyperplasia of the liver associated with congenital absence of the portal vein]

We report the 32nd case of congenital absence of portal vein in an 18-year-old female adult associated with multiple focal nodular hyperplasia of the liver. The association of various hepatic tumors has been observed in half of the publications about congenital absence of portal vein. Hepatic tumors seem to result from systemic diversion of portal vein flow with a resultant increase of arterial flow causing important vascular and nutritif changes the liver and consequent parenchymal transformation.