Simon Chesterman, One Nation Under Surveillance – A New Social Contract to Defend Freedom Without Sacrificing Liberty

Oxford University Press 2011, ISBN 978-0-19-958037-8

Live Cattle Futures and Options: How Have They Done?

Futures did reduce price risk. Hedging produced a higher minimum return and higher return at the 25th percentile (75% of the returns are better than this figure) than did the cash market. The 50th percentile, or median return, was higher for yearlings in the cash market than hedged cattle, and the calves had mixed results. Although the differences are not great, there have been months when the option strategies performed better than cash or futures, (i.e., January–April and September–October), and there are months when they did not fare well (i.e., June–August).

Envisioning sustainable water futures in a transdisciplinary learning process: combining normative, explorative, and participatory scenario approaches

Competing water demands for household consumption as well as the production of food, energy, and other uses pose challenges for water supply and sustainable development in many parts of the world. Designing creative strategies and learning processes for sustainable water governance is thus of prime importance. While this need is uncontested, suitable approaches still have to be found. In this article we present and evaluate a conceptual approach to scenario building aimed at transdisciplinary learning for sustainable water governance. The approach combines normative, explorative, and participatory scenario elements. This combination allows for adequate consideration of stakeholders’ and scientists’ systems, target, and transformation knowledge. Application of the approach in the MontanAqua project in the Swiss Alps confirmed its high potential for co-producing new knowledge and establishing a meaningful and deliberative dialogue between all actors involved. The iterative and combined approach ensured that stakeholders’ knowledge was adequately captured, fed into scientific analysis, and brought back to stakeholders in several cycles, thereby facilitating learning and co-production of new knowledge relevant for both stakeholders and scientists. However, the approach also revealed a number of constraints, including the enormous flexibility required of stakeholders and scientists in order for them to truly engage in the co-production of new knowledge. Overall, the study showed that shifts from strategic to communicative action are possible in an environment of mutual trust. This ultimately depends on creating conditions of interaction that place scientists’ and stakeholders’ knowledge on an equal footing.

The Jewish marriage contract : a study in the status of the woman in Jewish law

by Louis M. Epstein

Validierung einer deutschsprachigen Version des Career Futures Inventory (CFI): Berufliche Anpassungsfähigkeit, beruflicher Optimismus, Arbeitsmarktwissen und Berufserfolg

Das Career Futures Inventory (CFI; Rottingaus, Day & Borgen, 2005) erfasst die drei laufbahnbezogenen Zukunftsfaktoren career adaptability (Berufliche Anpassungsfähigkeit), career optimism (Beruflicher Optimismus) und knowledge of job market (Arbeitsmarktwissen). Die Ziele dieser Studie waren (a) eine deutschsprachige Version des CFIs zu konstruieren und (b) an zwei Stichproben mit Erwerbstätigen mittels (c) unterschiedlicher Indikatoren des Berufserfolgs und anhand von Persönlichkeitseigenschaften zu validieren. Es konnte in beiden Stichproben (N1 = 153; N2 = 110) die 3-faktorielle Struktur des CFIs nachgewiesen werden. Zudem konnten Annahmen zur konvergenten und diskriminanten Validität in beiden Stichproben bestätigt werden, da die CFI-Faktoren in erwarteter Richtung mit Berufserfolg (z. B. Beförderungen, Karrierezufriedenheit) bzw. Persönlichkeitseigenschaften (d. h. Big Five) korrelierten bzw. nicht korrelierten. Eine Analyse der inkrementellen Validität zeigte, dass Arbeitsmarktwissen zusätzliche Varianz beim Gehalt über Kontrollvariablen und Persönlichkeit hinaus erklärte. Hinsichtlich Karrierezufriedenheit war dies für beruflichen Optimismus der Fall. Diese Validierungsstudie ermöglicht den Einsatz des CFIs im deutschsprachigen Raum.

Contrasting futures for ocean and society from different anthropogenic CO2 emissions scenarios

The ocean moderates anthropogenic climate change at the cost of profound alterations of its physics, chemistry, ecology, and services. Here, we evaluate and compare the risks of impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems—and the goods and services they provide—for growing cumulative carbon emissions under two contrasting emissions scenarios. The current emissions trajectory would rapidly and significantly alter many ecosystems and the associated services on which humans heavily depend. A reduced emissions scenario—consistent with the Copenhagen Accord’s goal of a global temperature increase of less than 2°C—is much more favorable to the ocean but still substantially alters important marine ecosystems and associated goods and services. The management options to address ocean impacts narrow as the ocean warms and acidifies. Consequently, any new climate regime that fails to minimize ocean impacts would be incomplete and inadequate.

Monetary Policy Delegation, Contract Costs, and Contract Targets

We reconsider the optimal central banker contract derived in Walsh (1995). We show that if the government's objective function places weight (value) on the cost of the contract, then the optimal inflation contract does not completely neutralize the inflation bias. That is, a fraction of the inflation bias emerges in the resulting inflation rate after the central banker's monetary policy decision. Furthermore, the more concerned the government is about the cost of the contract or the less selfish (more benevolent) is the central banker, the smaller is the share of the inflation bias eliminated by the contract. No matter how concerned the government is about the cost of the contract or how unselfish (benevolent) the central banker is, the contract always reduces the inflationary bias by at least half. Finally, a central banker contract written in terms of output (i.e., incorporating an output target) can completely eradicate the inflationary bias, regardless of concerns about contract costs.

Market efficiency of commodity futures in India

This paper aims to examine the market efficiency of the commodity futures market in India, which has been growing phenomenally for the last few years. We estimate the long-run equilibrium relationship between the multi-commodity futures and spot prices and then test for market efficiency in a weak form sense by applying both the DOLS and the FMOLS methods. The entire sample period is from 2 January 2006 to 31 March 2011. The results indicate that a cointegrating relationship is found between these indices and that the commodity futures market seems to be efficient only during the more recent sub-sample period since July 2009.

How does contract design affect the uptake of microcredit among the ultra-poor? : experimental evidence from the river islands of Northern Bangladesh

Despite the professed claims of microcredit alleviating poverty, little is known about what kind of credit contract is suitable for extremely poor households, also called the ultra-poor. To fill this knowledge gap, we initiated a field experiment in the river islands of northern Bangladesh, where a substantial portion of dwellers could be categorized as ultra-poor due to cyclic floods. We randomly offered four types of loans to such dwellers: regular small cash loans with one-year maturity, large cash loans with three-year maturity both with and without a one-year grace period, and in-kind livestock loans with three-year maturity and a one-year grace period. We compared uptake rates as well as the determinants of uptake and found that the uptake rate is the lowest for the regular contract, followed by the in-kind contract. Contrary to prior belief, we also found that the microcredit demand by the ultra-poor is not necessarily small, and in particular the ultra-poor are significantly more likely to join a microcredit program than the moderately poor if a grace period with longer maturity is attached to a large amount of credit, irrespective of whether the credit is provided in cash or in kind. This paper provides evidence that a typical microcredit contract with one-year maturity and without a grace period is not attractive to the ultra-poor. Microfinance institutions may need to design better credit contracts to address the poor's needs.

The first renewable forward market mechanisms in the Iberian Electricity Market

A description of the first renewable forward market mechanisms in the Iberian Electricity Market is provided. A contract for difference mechanism is available in Spain since March 2011between the last resort suppliers and the special regime (renewables and cogeneration) settling the price differences between the equilibrium price of the forward regulated auctions for the last resort supply and the spot price of the corresponding delivery period. Regulated auctions of baseload futures of the Portuguese zone in which the Portuguese last resort supplier sells the special regime production exist since December 2011. The experience gained from renewables auctions in Latin America could be used in the Iberian Electricity market, complementing these first market mechanisms. Introduction of renewable auctions at least for the most mature technologies (i.e. wind) in Spain and Portugal providing a fair price for the renewable generation will be of utmost importance in the short term to diminish the tariff deficit caused by the massive deployment of the feed-in-tariff scheme. Liquidity in the forward markets will also increase as a result of the entry of renewable generation companies intending to maximize their profits due to gradual suppression of feed in tariff schemes.