Future of the Clean Development Mechanism in Tackling Climate Change

Using a theoretical framework, we explain the impact of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) on emissions in Annex I and non-Annex I countries. We show that on one hand, emissions in the non-Annex I country decline because of abatement sponsored by the Annex I country under the CDM; on the other hand, emissions may increase because (i) the Annex I country increases emissions in its own country, and (ii) the non-Annex I country crowds out the bene ts from the CDM projects by increasing its domestic emissions. For the CDM to be e¤ective in reducing global emissions, we show that partial Certi ed Emissions Reduction credits should be given to the Annex I country that sponsors CDM projects in the non-Annex I country. We also suggest that the CDM Executive Board should not allow the CDM projects to be hosted by non-Annex I countries that are too conscious about their emission levels.

The past, present and future of central banking

The financial crisis, on the one hand, and the recourse to ‘unconventional’ monetary policy, on the other, have given a sharp jolt to perceptions of the role and status of central banks. In this paper we start with a brief ‘contrarian’ history of central banks since the second world war, which presents the Great Moderation and the restricted focus on inflation targeting as a temporary aberration from the norm. We then discuss how recent developments in fiscal and monetary policy have affected the role and status of central banks, notably their relationships with governments, before considering the environment central banks will face in the near and middle future and how they will have to change to address it.

Genuine savings and future well-being in Germany, 1850-2000

Genuine Savings (GS), also known as ‘net adjusted savings’, is a composite indicator of the sustainability of economic development. Genuine Savings reflects year-on-year changes in the total wealth or capital of a country, including net investment in produced capita, investment in human capital, depletion of natural resources, and damage caused by pollution. A negative Genuine Savings rate suggests that the stock of national wealth is declining and that future utility must be less than current utility, indicating that economic development is non-sustainable (Hamilton and Clemens, 1999). We make use of data over a 150 year period to examine the relationship between Genuine Savings and a number of indicators of well-being over time, and compare the relative changes in human, produced, and components of natural capital over the period. Overall, we find that the magnitude of genuine savings is positively related to changes in future consumption, with some evidence of a cointegrating relationship. However, the relationships between genuine savings and infant mortality or average heights are less clear.

Knowing the past to predict the future: land-use change and the distribution of invasive bullfrogs

Biological invasions and land-use changes are two major causes of the global modifications of biodiversity. Habitat suitability models are the tools of choice to predict potential distributions of invasive species. Although land-use is a key driver of alien species invasions, it is often assumed that land-use is constant in time. Here we combine historical and present day information, to evaluate whether land-use changes could explain the dynamic of invasion of the American bullfrog Rana catesbeiana (=Lithobathes catesbeianus) in Northern Italy, from the 1950s to present-day. We used maxent to build habitat suitability models, on the basis of past (1960s, 1980s) and present-day data on land-uses and species distribution. For example, we used models built using the 1960s data to predict distribution in the 1980s, and so on. Furthermore, we used land-use scenarios to project suitability in the future. Habitat suitability models predicted well the spread of bullfrogs in the subsequent temporal step. Models considering land-use changes predicted invasion dynamics better than models assuming constant land-use over the last 50 years. Scenarios of future land-use suggest that suitability will remain similar in the next years. Habitat suitability models can help to understand and predict the dynamics of invasions; however, land-use is not constant in time: land-use modifications can strongly affect invasions; furthermore, both land management and the suitability of a given land-use class may vary in time. An integration of land-use changes in studies of biological invasions can help to improve management strategies.

Ecology of malaria vectors in the Americas and future direction

The resurgence of malaria in the Americas has renewed interest in Anopheles biology. Anopheles darlingi, An. albimanus, An. nuneztovai and An aquasalis are reconfirmed as major malaria vectors and other species are playing important roles in regional malaria transmission. Adultbiting activity and larval ecology are discussed in detail. Seasonal abundance and daily biting activity of Anopheles vary considerably among species and geographically for the same species. Anopheles albimanus has the least amount of variation in biting activity over its range and An. darlingi has the greatest. All species studied are more exophilic and exophagic than endophilic and endophagic. Anopheles darling is more antropophilic, endophilic and endophagic than other Anophelines. Larval studies remain more descriptive than comprehensive. Research on Anophelines is becoming more integrated and biologists are using new biochemical techniques and ecological principles to answer critical questions. This "pluralization" will help us understand species complexes, population dynamics and malaria transmission. integrated control programs will require more regional, in-depth ecological studies.

Endemic leishmaniasis in Brazil: future implications

Some predictions are made as to how work on leishmaniaisis and its control will develop in Brazil in the future.

Taxonomy of the genus Leishmania: present and future trends and their implications

The application of different taxonomic methods (Cladistic, Evolutionary Taxonomy and Numerical Taxonomy) to the taxonomy of the Genus Leishmania are reviewed. The major groupings of the most recent classifications obtained using the cladistical approach agree with the major divisions of previous classifications which used traditional taxonomy (Evolutionary Taxonomy). The advantage of the cladistical approach is that it produces cladograms whose branches indicate more accurately levels of relationships between the different taxa. Numerical Taxonomy is useful for identification but not as good as the cladistical approach for classification. The ancient division of this monophyletic genus into two major evolutionary lines supports the use of the subgeneric names Leishmania and Viannia.

Perspectives de l'inactivation des pathogènes: quand la fiction dépasse la réalité [Back to the future: a fiction dealing with pathogen inactivation of blood products].

AIM OF THE PAPER: Arouse the reflection with a fiction having a scientific appearance, presenting a late and unexpected complication of the universal inactivation of pathogens. CONCLUSION: Such a fiction story opens the debate on a series of fundamental questions that could be addressed during the paradigm shift that is expected by introducing universal pathogen inactivation of blood products.

Influence of the primary cleft palate closure on the future need for orthognathic surgery in unilateral cleft lip and palate patients.

The aim of the study was to determine the influence of the dissection of the palate during primary surgery and the type of orthognathic surgery needed in cases of unilateral total cleft. The review concerns 58 children born with a complete unilateral cleft lip and palate and treated between 1994 and 2008 at the appropriate age for orthognathic surgery. This is a retrospective mixed-longitudinal study. Patients with syndromes or associated anomalies were excluded. All children were treated by the same orthodontist and by the same surgical team. Children are divided into 2 groups: the first group includes children who had conventional primary cleft palate repair during their first year of life, with extensive mucoperiosteal undermining. The second group includes children operated on according to the Malek surgical protocol. The soft palate is closed at the age of 3 months, and the hard palate at 6 months with minimal mucoperiosteal undermining. Lateral cephalograms at ages 9 and 16 years and surgical records were compared. The need for orthognathic surgery was more frequent in the first than in the second group (60% vs 47.8%). Concerning the type of orthognathic surgery performed, 2- or 3-piece Le Fort I or bimaxillary osteotomies were also less required in the first group. Palate surgery following the Malek procedure results in an improved and simplified craniofacial outcome. With a minimal undermining of palatal mucosa, we managed to reduce the amount of patients who required an orthognathic procedure. When this procedure was indicated, the surgical intervention was also greatly simplified.

The Future of the Deuteronomistic History

The present debate on the so-called "Deuteronomistic History" has become quite confusing and in recent years more and more scholars are inclined to deny the existence of a Deuteronomistic History as elaborated by Martin Noth or at least to modify this thesis radically. The contributions in this volume reflect the present state of discussion about the Deuteronomistic History. With one exception they have all been presented and discussed in three special sessions dedicated to "Deuteronomism" during the SBL International Meeting in Lausanne (July 1997). Three topics were treated: "The Future of the Deuteronomistic History", "Identity and Literary Strategies of the Deuteronomists", "Deuteronomism and the Hebrew Bible". The contributors are: R. Albertz, A.G. Auld, M. Bauks, W. Dietrich, D. Edelman, F. Garcia Lopez, E.A. Knauf, G. Knoppers, S.K. McKenzie, C. Nihan, T.C. Römer, N.H. Rösel, J. Van Seters and J. Vermeylen. Each contribution offers a valuable entry into one of the most important discussions of Old Testament scholarship at the end of the twentieth century.

How The 1996 Hotel Majestic agreement may explain a future PP/CiU relationship in Madrid

Some historians have argued that 1996 marked a ‘second transition’ for Spain because of the return to power of the political right in Madrid and that the relationship and eventual pact between the Partido Popular (PP) and Convergència i Unió (CiU) meant that the state could finally escape the ghosts of its Francoist past. For this research, face-to-face interviews were conducted with Catalan Members of Parliament who served under either José María Aznar or Jordi Pujol in Madrid or Barcelona. Drawing upon both interviews and other evidence, including the analysis of election results and the 1996 Hotel Majestic Agreement, the research seeks to provide a better understanding of the previous relationships between the PP and CiU and their leaders in order to understand what lessons might be learnt that would contribute to anticipating and explaining possible future negotiations between the two parties. This is attempted by first examining the potential costs and benefits of political pacts between centre (Madrid) and periphery (Barcelona). Secondly, due to many interviewees making reference to Salvador Espriu’s work La Pell de Brau, the three routes of Espriu’s Catalan nationalism are put into the context of the political pacts. Finally, the likelihood of future agreements between PP and CiU are hypothesized, not only how those agreements may (or may not) come about, but also, what might the result of those negotiations be. Ultimately, it is concluded that the benefits of the Hotel Majestic Agreement outweighed the costs, thus leaving the door open for future negotiations, even if some of those interviewed disagreed.