Dynamic analysis of house price diffusion across Asian financial centres

The aim of this paper is to explore effects of macroeconomic variables on house prices and also, the lead-lag relationships of real estate markets to examine house price diffusion across Asian financial centres. The analysis is based on the Global Vector Auto-Regression (GVAR) model estimated using quarterly data for six Asian financial centres (Hong Kong, Tokyo, Seoul, Singapore, Taipei and Bangkok) from 1991Q1 to 2011Q2. The empirical results indicate that the global economic conditions play significant roles in shaping house price movements across Asian financial centres. In particular, a small open economy that heavily relies on international trade such as – Singapore and Tokyo - shows positive correlations between economy’s openness and house prices, consistent with the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis in international trade. However, region-specific conditions do play important roles as determinants of house prices, partly due to restrictive housing policies and demand-supply imbalances, as found in Singapore and Bangkok.

Probability of survival in a random exchange economy with dependent agents

In this paper I analyze the general equilibrium in a random Walrasian economy. Dependence among agents is introduced in the form of dependency neighborhoods. Under the uncertainty, an agent may fail to survive due to a meager endowment in a particular state (direct effect), as well as due to unfavorable equilibrium price system at which the value of the endowment falls short of the minimum needed for survival (indirect terms-of-trade effect). To illustrate the main result I compute the stochastic limit of equilibrium price and probability of survival of an agent in a large Cobb-Douglas economy.

Government policy under price uncertainty: a source of volatility in illegal immigration

In this paper we provide an alternative explanation for why illegal immigration can exhibit substantial fluctuation. We develop a model economy in which migrants make decisions in the face of uncertain border enforcement and lump-sum transfers from the host country. The uncertainty is extrinsic in nature, a sunspot, and arises as a result of ambiguity regarding the commodity price of money. Migrants are restricted from participating in state-contingent insurance markets in the host country, whereas host country natives are not. Volatility in migration flows stems from two distinct sources: the tension between transfers inducing migration and enforcement discouraging it and secondly the existence of a sunspot. Finally, we examine the impact of a change in tax/transfer policies by the government on migration.

Modelling the medieval economy: money, prices and income in England, 1263-1520

This chapter presents a simple econometric model of the medieval English economy, focusing on the relationship between money, prices and incomes. The model is estimated using annual data for the period 1263-1520 obtained from various sources. The start date is determined by the availability of continuous runs of annual data, while the finishing date immediately precedes the take-off of Tudor price inflation. Accounts from the ecclesiastical and monastic estates have survived in great numbers for this period, thereby ensuring that crop yields can be estimated from a regionally representative set of estates.

Flight to quality? An investigation of changing price spreads in commercial real estate markets

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of the crisis on the pricing of asset quality attributes. This paper uses sales transaction data to examine whether flight from risk phenomena took place in the US office market during the financial crisis of 2007-2009. Design/methodology/approach – Hedonic regression procedures are used to test the hypothesis that the spread between the pricing of low-quality and high-quality characteristics increased during the crisis period compared to the pre-crisis period. Findings – The results of the hedonic regression models suggest that the price spread between Class A and other properties grew significantly during the downturn. Research limitations/implications – Our results are consistent with the hypothesis of an increased price spread following a market downturn between Class A and non-Class A offices. The evidence suggests that the relationships between the returns on Class A and non-Class A assets changed during the period of market stress or crisis. Practical implications – These findings have implications for real estate portfolio construction. If regime switches can be predicted and/or responded to rapidly, portfolios may be rebalanced. In crisis periods, portfolios might be reweighted towards Class A properties and in positive market periods, the reweighting would be towards non-Class A assets. Social implications – The global financial crisis has demonstrated that real estate markets play a crucial role in modern economies and that negative developments in these markets have the potential to spillover and create contagion for the larger economy, thereby affecting jobs, incomes and ultimately people’s livelihoods. Originality/value – This is one of the first studies that address the flight to quality phenomenon in commercial real estate markets during periods of financial crisis and market turmoil.

Tourism, dutch disease and welfare in an open dynamic economy

This paper examines the effects of an expansion in tourism on capital accumulation, sectoral output and resident welfare in an open economy with an externality in the traded good sector. An expansion of tourism increases the relative price of the nontraded good, improves the tertiary terms of trade and hence yields a gain in revenue. However, this increase in the relative price of nontraded goods results in a lowering of the demand for capital used in the traded sector. The subsequent de-industrialization in the traded good sector may lower resident welfare. This result is supported by numerical simulations.

Tourism and economic development in a cash-in-advance economy

This paper examines the impact of tourism on welfare in a cash-in-advance economy. As a result of the expansion in tourism, the price of the non-traded good increases. This gives rise to a terms-of-trade improvement. However, the cash-in-advance constraint causes a distortion in consumption. For tourism demand, where the gain from the terms-of-trade improvement dominates (does not dominate) the loss from the consumption distortion, tourism is welfare-improving (welfare-reducing). A similar condition for welfare improvement (deterioration) holds for a model of capital inflow and endogenised tourism.

Underpricing of energy IPOs in Australia

The underpricing of initial public offerings (IPOs) has been discussed in the literature for over thirty years. Underpricing is the term used when the issue price of the shares of a company raising public equity capital and seeking to list on a stock exchange is below the closing price of the shares on the first day of listing. As such, underpricing theoretically allows subscribing investors the opportunity of making a return on the day of listing. The international evidence as examined in [4] and updated in [5] has documented that subscribing investors made handsome double-digit' (for example US IPOs - 15.7%, UK IPOs 12%, Turkish IPOs - 13.1 %, Greek IPOs -49.0%) or even triple-digit (for example Chinese IPOs 256.9%) statistically significant positive first day returns, on average. These studies are generally however of industrial company IPOs.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the underpricing returns of Australian energy IPOs from January 1994 to June 2007. Two previous studies into natural resource IPOs in Australia only made fleeting mention of energy IPOs because of the small sample sizes. [3] identified 2 solid fuel IPOs and 13 oil and gas IPOs (amongst 130 other natural resource IPOs) during 1979 to 1990 and advised average underpricing returns of 106.5% and 47.3% respectively for investors subscribing to these IPOs. [2] investigated 19 energy IPOs (amongst 96 other natural resource IPOs) from 1994 to 1999 and reported an average underpricing return of 8.3%.

The sample set of 134 used in this study is significantly greater than previous Australian studies. These 134 energy IPOs raised over $1.945 billion of public equity capital from January 1994 to June 2007. [3] reports on the importance of the natural resources sectors to Australia's economy and the fact that companies working in these sectors constitute around one third of the entities listed on the Australian Stock Exchange.

This study also follows a highly influential paper in the IPO literature by [I]. They argue that the lower the uncertainty about the value of an IPO, the lower the underpricing needed to attract subscribers. Given the linkage between uncertainty and underpricing, this study seeks to identify the factors that might influence uncertainty and hence underpricing.

The study found that the mean underpricing return for these energy lPOs is 22.8% and statistically significant. The model used to investigate variables that might help explain the level of underpricing in this industry sector is also particularly useful. An important finding in the study for new issuers, underwriters and subscribing investors is that those energy IPO firms that used underwriters had substantially lower underpricing. The other finding that larger issues are likely to have lower underpricing is consistent with prior industrial company IPO studies.

Does monetary policy matter in a less developed economy? Evidence from Bangladesh

This paper explores the role of monetary policy in the context of a less developed economy. Monetary transmission mechanisms in less developed economies can be quite different from an industrialized economy, as unlike industrialized countries, these economies are characterized by the small size of organized financial markets, limited substitutability between money and other assets and weak fiscal and monetary institutions. We utilize the Structural VAR approach to analyze the monetary transmission process and impacts of monetary policy on different macro variables in Bangladesh. Monetary policy shocks are identified using non-recursive contemporaneous restrictions, which are based on the Central Bank's reaction function and the structure of the economy. We found strong evidence for the interest rate channel of monetary policy in Bangladesh. Our findings indicate that monetary policy shocks are important sources of fluctuations in the rate of interest, output and prices. Expansionary monetary policies are found to be harmful for achieving price stability in Bangladesh, as they not only increase the prices permanently, but also make the price level more volatile. We also found the evidence of a long lasting effect of monetary policy on output, which suggests that contractionary policy measures may create sustained recession in Bangladesh.

The ripple effect in house price fluctuations in Australia

The differences in economy, society, demography and geography in different regions are main reasons which cause disparities in regional house prices. Three theories, namely ripple effect hypothesis, convergence and efficient market hypothesis, are used to examine price fluctuations in spatial dimension amongst eight housing markets in Australian state capital cities.

Foreign aid, wage inequality and welfare for a small open economy with tourism

While the welfare effect of foreign aid has been extensively analyzed, the impact on the distribution of income has received less attention. At the same time, there has been recent work on tourism where it is complementary to aid in improving welfare.By combining these two strands, this paper concentrates on wage inequality in developing countries.We find that an increase in aid in the form of tied aid can lower the relative price of nontraded goods. The rent extracted from tourists declines, reducing welfare of domestic residents. In addition, the fall in the nontradable price can widen the wage inequality between skilled and unskilled workers.Thus, increased foreign aid may have detrimental effects on national welfare and the distribution of income. Rising wage inequality is confirmed by numerical simulations.

It's the economy : the effect of macroeconomic variables of the rate of suicide

Background. There are a large number of factors mediating suicide. Many studies have searched for a direct causal relationship between economic hardship and suicide, however, findings have been varied.

Method. Suicide data was obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics for the period between January 1968 and August 2002. These were correlated with a suite of macroeconomic data including housing loan interest rates, unemployment rates, days lost to industrial disputes, Consumer Price Index, gross domestic product, and the Consumer Sentiment Index.

Results. A total of 51 845 males and 16 327 females committed suicide between these dates. There were significant associations between suicide rates and eleven macroeconomic indicators for both genders in at least one age range. Data was divided into male and female and five age ranges and pooled ages. Analyses were conducted on these 132 datasets resulting in 80 significant findings. The data was generally stronger for indices measuring economic performance than indices measuring consumers’ perceptions of the state of the economy. A striking difference between male and female trends was seen. Generally, male suicide rates increased with markers of economic adversity, while the opposite pattern was seen in females. There were significantly different patterns in age-stratified data, with for example higher housing loan interest rates having a positive association with suicide in younger people and a negative association in older age groups.

Conclusion. Macroeconomic trends are significantly associated with suicide. The patterns in males and females are very different, and there are further substantial age-related differences.

Economic growth with coal, oil and renewable energy consumption in China: prospects for fuel substitution

We examine the relationship between Chinese aggregate production and consumption of three main energy commodities: coal, oil and renewable energy. Both autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and vector error correction modeling (VECM) show that Chinese growth is led by all three energy sources. Economic growth also causes coal, oil and renewables consumption, but with negative own-price effects for coal and oil and a strong possibility of fuel substitution through positive cross-price effects. The results further show coal consumption causing pollution, while renewable energy consumption reduces emissions. No significant causation on emissions is found for oil. Hence, making coal both absolutely and relatively expensive compared to oil and renewable energy encourages shifting from coal to oil and renewable energy, thereby improving economic and environmental sustainability.

Tourism, Dutch disease and welfare in an open dynamic economy

This chapter examines the effects of an expansion in tourism on capital accumulation, sectoral output and resident welfare in an open economy with an externality in the traded good sector. An expansion of tourism increases the relative price of the non traded good, improves the tertiary terms-of-trade and hence yields a gain in revenue. However, this increase in the relative price of non traded goods results in a lowering of the demand for capital used in the traded sector. The subsequent de-industrialization in the traded good sector may lower resident welfare. This result is supported by numerical simulations. © 2011 Nova Science Publishers, Inc.

Stock price comovement: Evidence from India

We examine the extent to which stock prices comove in an emerging economy, India. We first document that stocks listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) comove. Further, we find that synchronicity is positively associated with growth and earnings volatility and negatively associated with business group affiliation and leverage.