Challenges in identifying factors which determine the placement of children in care? An international review

Placing a child in out-of-home care is one of the most important decisions made by professionals in the child care system, with substantial social, psychological, educational, medical and economic consequences. This paper considers the challenges and difficulties of building statistical models of this decision by reviewing the available international evidence. Despite the large number of empirical investigations over a 50 year period, a consensus on the variables associated with this decision is hard to identify. In addition, the individual models have low explanatory and predictive power and should not be relied on to make placement decisions. A number of reasons for this poor performance are offered, and some ways forwards suggested. This paper also aims to facilitate the emergence of a coherent and integrated international literature from the disconnected and fragmented empirical studies. Rather than one placement problem, there are many slightly different problems, and therefore it is expected that a number of related sub-literatures will emerge, each concentrating on a particular definition of the placement problem.

IMILAST: a community effort to intercompare extratropical cyclone detection and tracking algorithms

The variability of results from different automated methods of detection and tracking of extratropical cyclones is assessed in order to identify uncertainties related to the choice of method. Fifteen international teams applied their own algorithms to the same dataset—the period 1989–2009 of interim European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERAInterim) data. This experiment is part of the community project Intercomparison of Mid Latitude Storm Diagnostics (IMILAST; see www.proclim.ch/imilast/index.html). The spread of results for cyclone frequency, intensity, life cycle, and track location is presented to illustrate the impact of using different methods. Globally, methods agree well for geographical distribution in large oceanic regions, interannual variability of cyclone numbers, geographical patterns of strong trends, and distribution shape for many life cycle characteristics. In contrast, the largest disparities exist for the total numbers of cyclones, the detection of weak cyclones, and distribution in some densely populated regions. Consistency between methods is better for strong cyclones than for shallow ones. Two case studies of relatively large, intense cyclones reveal that the identification of the most intense part of the life cycle of these events is robust between methods, but considerable differences exist during the development and the dissolution phases.

Introducing "ecoputation": a universal systems design process

A universal systems design process is specified, tested in a case study and evaluated. It links English narratives to numbers using a categorical language framework with mathematical mappings taking the place of conjunctions and numbers. The framework is a ring of English narrative words between 1 (option) and 360 (capital); beyond 360 the ring cycles again to 1. English narratives are shown to correspond to the field of fractional numbers. The process can enable the development, presentation and communication of complex narrative policy information among communities of any scale, on a software implementation known as the "ecoputer". The information is more accessible and comprehensive than that in conventional decision support, because: (1) it is expressed in narrative language; and (2) the narratives are expressed as compounds of words within the framework. Hence option generation is made more effective than in conventional decision support processes including Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis, Life Cycle Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis.The case study is of a participatory workshop in UK bioenergy project objectives and criteria, at which attributes were elicited in environmental, economic and social systems. From the attributes, the framework was used to derive consequences at a range of levels of precision; these are compared with the project objectives and criteria as set out in the Case for Support. The design process is to be supported by a social information manipulation, storage and retrieval system for numeric and verbal narratives attached to the "ecoputer". The "ecoputer" will have an integrated verbal and numeric operating system. Novel design source code language will assist the development of narrative policy. The utility of the program, including in the transition to sustainable development and in applications at both community micro-scale and policy macro-scale, is discussed from public, stakeholder, corporate, Governmental and regulatory perspectives.

Two Faces of AIDS in Hong Kong: Culture and the Construction of the `AIDS Celebrity'

Since the first reported case of HIV infection in Hong Kong in 1985, only two HIV-positive individuals in the territory have voluntarily made public their seropositivity: a British dentist named Mike Sinclair, who disclosed his condition to the media in 1992 and died in 1995, and J.J. Chan, a local Chinese disc-jockey, who came forward in 1995 and died just a few months later. When they made their revelations, both became instant media personalities and were invited by the Hong Kong Government to act as spokespeople for AIDS awareness and prevention. Mike Sinclair worked as an education officer for the Hong Kong AIDS Foundation, and J.J. Chan appeared in Government television commercials about AIDS. This article explores how the public identities of these two figures were constructed in the cultural context of Hong Kong where both Eastern and Western values exist side by side and interact. It argues that the construction of `AIDS celebrities' is a kind of `identity project' negotiated among the players involved: the media, the Government, the public, and the person with AIDS (PWA) himself, each bringing to the construction their own `theories' regarding the self and communication. When the players in the construction hold shared assumptions about the nature of the self and the role of communication in enacting it, harmonious discourses arise, but when cultural models among the players differ, contradictory or ambiguous constructions result. The effect of culture on the way `AIDS celebrities' are constructed has implications for the way societies view the issue of AIDS and treat those who have it. It also helps reveal possible sites of difficulty when individuals of different cultures communicate about the issue.

BAECC: a field campaign to elucidate the impact of Biogenic Aerosols on Clouds and Climate

Observations obtained during an 8-month deployment of AMF2 in a boreal environment in Hyytiälä, Finland, and the 20-year comprehensive in-situ data from SMEAR-II station enable the characterization of biogenic aerosol, clouds and precipitation, and their interactions. During “Biogenic Aerosols - Effects on Clouds and Climate (BAECC)”, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program deployed the ARM 2nd Mobile Facility (AMF2) to Hyytiälä, Finland, for an 8-month intensive measurement campaign from February to September 2014. The primary research goal is to understand the role of biogenic aerosols in cloud formation. Hyytiälä is host to SMEAR-II (Station for Measuring Forest Ecosystem-Atmosphere Relations), one of the world’s most comprehensive surface in-situ observation sites in a boreal forest environment. The station has been measuring atmospheric aerosols, biogenic emissions and an extensive suite of parameters relevant to atmosphere-biosphere interactions continuously since 1996. Combining vertical profiles from AMF2 with surface-based in-situ SMEAR-II observations allow the processes at the surface to be directly related to processes occurring throughout the entire tropospheric column. Together with the inclusion of extensive surface precipitation measurements, and intensive observation periods involving aircraft flights and novel radiosonde launches, the complementary observations provide a unique opportunity for investigating aerosol-cloud interactions, and cloud-to-precipitation processes, in a boreal environment. The BAECC dataset provides opportunities for evaluating and improving models of aerosol sources and transport, cloud microphysical processes, and boundary-layer structures. In addition, numerical models are being used to bridge the gap between surface-based and tropospheric observations.

Cladistic analysis of the suborder Conulariina Miller and Gurley, 1896 (Cnidaria, Scyphozoa; Vendian-Triassic)

Results of a cladistic analysis of the suborder Conulariina Miller and Gurley, 1896, a major extinct (Vendian-Triassic) group of scyphozoan cnidarians, are presented. The analysis sought to test whether the three conulariid subfamilies (Conulariinae Walcott, 1886, Paraconulariinae Sinclair, 1952 and Ctenoconulariinae Sinclair, 1952) recognized in the Treatise on Invertebrate Paleontology ( TIP) are monophyletic. A total of 17 morphological characters were scored for 16 ingroup taxa, namely the genera Archaeoconularia, Baccaconularia, Climacoconus, Conularia, Conulariella, Conularina, Ctenoconularia, Eoconularia, Glyptoconularia, Metaconularia, Notoconularia, Paraconularia, Pseudoconularia, Reticulaconularia, Teresconularia and Vendoconularia. The extant medusozoan taxa Cubozoa, Stauromedusae, Coronatae and Semaeostomeae served as outgroups. Unweighted analysisof the data matrix yielded 1057 trees, and successive weighting analysis resulted in one of the 1057 original trees. The ingroup is monophyletic with two autapomorphies: (1) the quadrate geometry of the oral region; and (2) the presence of a mineralized (phosphatic) periderm. Within the ingroup, the clade (Vendoconularia, Teresconularia, Conularina, Eoconularia) is supported by the sinusoidal longitudinal geometry of the transverse ridges, and the much larger clade (Baccaconularia, Glyptoconularia, Metaconularia, Pseudoconularia, Conularia, Ctenoconularia, Archaeoconularia, Notoconularia, Climacoconus, Paraconularia, Reticulaconularia) is supported by the presence of external tubercles, which, however, were lost in the clade (Notoconularia, Climacoconus, Paraconularia, Reticulaconularia). As proposed by Van Iten et al. (2000), the clade (Notoconularia, Climacoconus, Paraconularia, Reticulaconularia) is supported by the termination and alternation of the transverse ribs in the corner sulcus. The previously recognized subfamilies Conulariinae, Paraconulariinae and Ctenoconulariinae were not recovered from this analysis. The diagnostic features of Conulariinae (continuation of the transverse ornament across the corner sulcus and lack of carinae) and Ctenoconulariinae ( presence of carinae) are symplesiomorphic or homoplastic, and Paraconulariinae is polyphyletic. The families Conulariellidae Kiderlen, 1937 and Conulariopsidae Sugiyama, 1942, also recognized in the TIP, are monogeneric, and since they provide no additional phylogenetic information, should be abandoned.

Tourism and poverty relief

This paper examines the issue of how tourism affects poverty in the context of the effects of tourism on an economy as a whole and on particular sectors within it. A framework for analysing the channels through which tourism affects different households is developed, and a computable general equilibrium model of the Brazilian economy is used to examine the economic impact and distributional effects of tourism in Brazil. It is shown that the effects on all income groups are positive. The lowest income households benefit from tourism but by less than some higher income groups. Policies that could redistribute greater shares of the revenue to the poor are considered.

Comportamento do consumo de energia em alguns gêneros indústriais

Esta dissertação procura analisar, do ponto de vista do consumo de alguns energéticos e do desempenho da atividade de gêneros industriais, o comportamento e a evolução do processo recessivo da economia brasileira, a partir de 1974.

Cladistic analysis of the suborder Conulariina Miller and Gurley, 1896 (Cnidaria, Scyphozoa; Vendian-Triassic)

Results of a cladistic analysis of the suborder Conulariina Miller and Gurley, 1896, a major extinct (Vendian-Triassic) group of scyphozoan cnidarians, are presented. The analysis sought to test whether the three conulariid subfamilies (Conulariinae Walcott, 1886, Paraconulariinae Sinclair, 1952 and Ctenoconulariinae Sinclair, 1952) recognized in the Treatise on Invertebrate Paleontology ( TIP) are monophyletic. A total of 17 morphological characters were scored for 16 ingroup taxa, namely the genera Archaeoconularia, Baccaconularia, Climacoconus, Conularia, Conulariella, Conularina, Ctenoconularia, Eoconularia, Glyptoconularia, Metaconularia, Notoconularia, Paraconularia, Pseudoconularia, Reticulaconularia, Teresconularia and Vendoconularia. The extant medusozoan taxa Cubozoa, Stauromedusae, Coronatae and Semaeostomeae served as outgroups. Unweighted analysisof the data matrix yielded 1057 trees, and successive weighting analysis resulted in one of the 1057 original trees. The ingroup is monophyletic with two autapomorphies: (1) the quadrate geometry of the oral region; and (2) the presence of a mineralized (phosphatic) periderm. Within the ingroup, the clade (Vendoconularia, Teresconularia, Conularina, Eoconularia) is supported by the sinusoidal longitudinal geometry of the transverse ridges, and the much larger clade (Baccaconularia, Glyptoconularia, Metaconularia, Pseudoconularia, Conularia, Ctenoconularia, Archaeoconularia, Notoconularia, Climacoconus, Paraconularia, Reticulaconularia) is supported by the presence of external tubercles, which, however, were lost in the clade (Notoconularia, Climacoconus, Paraconularia, Reticulaconularia). As proposed by Van Iten et al. (2000), the clade (Notoconularia, Climacoconus, Paraconularia, Reticulaconularia) is supported by the termination and alternation of the transverse ribs in the corner sulcus. The previously recognized subfamilies Conulariinae, Paraconulariinae and Ctenoconulariinae were not recovered from this analysis. The diagnostic features of Conulariinae (continuation of the transverse ornament across the corner sulcus and lack of carinae) and Ctenoconulariinae ( presence of carinae) are symplesiomorphic or homoplastic, and Paraconulariinae is polyphyletic. The families Conulariellidae Kiderlen, 1937 and Conulariopsidae Sugiyama, 1942, also recognized in the TIP, are monogeneric, and since they provide no additional phylogenetic information, should be abandoned.

A preparação de material terminológico em língua inglesa por meio de ferramentas linguístico-computacionais

O objetivo desse estudo é demonstrar, por meio de análise quantitativa e qualitativa, a eficácia de ferramentas linguístico-computacionais na seleção de terminologia para a produção de material terminológico. Serão apresentadas duas ferramentas linguístico-computacionais (WordSmith Tools e VocabProfile) e, também, sugestões para que o ensino de termos ofereça resultados práticos. A fundamentação teórico-metodológica recorreu a Barros (2004); Berber Sardinha (2000; 2005); Biderman (2001); Cabré (2007); Cobb (2007); Nation, (2003) e Sinclair (2004). O corpus da pesquisa foi constituído exclusivamente de material escrito na língua inglesa em diversas áreas de especialidade. Os procedimentos de preparação de material terminológico são exemplificados a partir de uma das áreas de especialidades utilizadas nos corpora de pesquisa, as Redes Neurais Artificiais. Os resultados obtidos indicam que a utilização do Wordsmith Tools juntamente com o VocabProfile pode fornecer dados importantes para a pesquisa linguistica.

Von Thünen y la expansión urbana

Traducción de la monografía aparecida en "Annals of the Association of American Geographers", No 1, marzo 1967, p. 73-87

Simulation of soybean growth and yield under northeastern Amazon climatic conditions

O objetivo deste trabalho foi parametrizar, calibrar e validar uma nova versão do modelo de crescimento e de produtividade da soja desenvolvido por Sinclair, em condições naturais de campo no nordeste da Amazônia. Os dados meteorológicos e os valores de crescimento e de área foliar da soja foram obtidos em um experimento agrometeorológico realizado em Paragominas, PA, de 2006 a 2009. As condições climáticas durante o experimento foram muito distintas, com uma ligeira redução na precipitação em 2007, em virtude do fenômeno El Niño. Houve redução no índice de área foliar (IAF) e na produção de biomassa neste ano, a qual foi reproduzida pelo modelo. A simulação do IAF apresentou raiz do erro quadrado médio (REQM) de 0,55 a 0,82 m2 m‑2, de 2006 a 2009. A simulação da produtividade da soja para os dados independentes apresentou um REQM de 198 kg ha‑1, ou seja, uma superestimativa de 3%. O modelo encontra-se calibrado e validado para as condições climáticas da Amazônia e pode contribuir positivamente para a melhoria das simulações dos impactos da mudança de uso da terra na região amazônica. A versão modificada do modelo de Sinclair simula adequadamente a formação de área foliar, a biomassa total e a produtividade da soja, nas condições climáticas do nordeste da Amazônia.

Identificação e análise do vocabulário acadêmico em língua inglesa presente em textos acadêmico-científicos

Pós-graduação em Estudos Linguísticos - IBILCE