Improved estimation of Weibull Parameters considering unreliability uncertainties

We propose a linear regression method for estimating Weibull parameters from life tests. The method uses stochastic models of the unreliability at each failure instant. As a result, a heteroscedastic regression problem arises that is solved by weighted least squares minimization. The main feature of our method is an innovative s-normalization of the failure data models, to obtain analytic expressions of centers and weights for the regression. The method has been Monte Carlo contrasted with Benard?s approximation, and Maximum Likelihood Estimation; and it has the highest global scores for its robustness, and performance.

Estimation of daily global solar radiation from measured temperatures at Cañada de Luque, Córdoba, Argentina

Solar radiation is the most important source of renewable energy in the planet; it's important to solar engineers, designers and architects, and it's also fundamental for efficiently determining irrigation water needs and potential yield of crops, among others. Complete and accurate solar radiation data at a specific region are indispensable. For locations where measured values are not available, several models have been developed to estimate solar radiation. The objective of this paper was to calibrate, validate and compare five representative models to predict global solar radiation, adjusting the empirical coefficients to increase the local applicability and to develop a linear model. All models were based on easily available meteorological variables, without sunshine hours as input, and were used to estimate the daily solar radiation at Cañada de Luque (Córdoba, Argentina). As validation, measured and estimated solar radiation data were analyzed using several statistic coefficients. The results showed that all the analyzed models were robust and accurate (R2 and RMSE values between 0.87 to 0.89 and 2.05 to 2.14, respectively), so global radiation can be estimated properly with easily available meteorological variables when only temperature data are available. Hargreaves-Samani, Allen and Bristow-Campbell models could be used with typical values to estimate solar radiation while Samani and Almorox models should be applied with calibrated coefficients. Although a new linear model presented the smallest R2 value (R2 = 0.87), it could be considered useful for its easy application. The daily global solar radiation values produced for these models can be used to estimate missing daily values, when only temperature data are available, and in hydrologic or agricultural applications.

Detection and Tracking of Dynamic Objects. A MultiRobot approach to Critical Infrastructures Surveillance.

Despite that Critical Infrastructures (CIs) security and surveillance are a growing concern for many countries and companies, Multi Robot Systems (MRSs) have not been yet broadly used in this type of facilities. This dissertation presents a novel study of the challenges arisen by the implementation of this type of systems and proposes solutions to specific problems. First, a comprehensive analysis of different types of CIs has been carried out, emphasizing the influence of the different characteristics of the facilities in the design of a security and surveillance MRS. One of the most important needs for the surveillance of a CI is the detection of intruders. From a technical point of view this problem can be abstracted as equivalent to the Detection and Tracking of Mobile Objects (DATMO). This dissertation proposes algorithms to solve this specific problem in a CI environment. Using 3D range images of the environment as input data, two detection algorithms for ground robots have been developed. These detection algorithms provide a list of moving objects in the robot detection area. Direct image differentiation and computer vision techniques are used when the robot is static. Alternatively, multi-layer ground reconstructions are compared to detect the dynamic objects when the robot is moving. Since CIs usually spread over large areas, it is very useful to incorporate aerial vehicles in the surveillance MRS. Therefore, a moving object detection algorithm for aerial vehicles has been also developed. This algorithm compares the real optical flow obtained from a down-face oriented camera with an artificial optical flow computed using a RANSAC based homography matrix. Two tracking algorithms have been developed to follow the moving objects trajectories. These algorithms can efficiently handle occlusions and crossings, as well as exchange information among robots. The multirobot tracking can be applied to any type of communication structure: centralized, decentralized or a combination of both. Even more, the developed tracking algorithms are independent of the detection algorithms and could be potentially used with other detection procedures or even with static sensors, such as cameras. In addition, using the 3D point clouds available to the robots, a relative localization algorithm has been developed to improve the position estimation of a given robot with observations from other robots. All the developed algorithms have been extensively tested in different simulated CIs using the Webots robotics simulator. Furthermore, the algorithms have also been validated with real robots operating in real scenarios. In conclusion, this dissertation presents a multirobot approach to Critical Infrastructure Surveillance, mainly focusing on Detecting and Tracking Dynamic Objects.

Fracture of concrete structural members subjected to blast

If reinforced concrete structures are to be safe under extreme impulsive loadings such as explosions, a broad understanding of the fracture mechanics of concrete under such events is needed. Most buildings and infrastructures which are likely to be subjected to terrorist attacks are borne by a reinforced concrete (RC) structure. Up to some years ago, the traditional method used to study the ability of RC structures to withstand explosions consisted on a choice between handmade calculations, affordable but inaccurate and unreliable, and full scale experimental tests involving explosions, expensive and not available for many civil institutions. In this context, during the last years numerical simulations have arisen as the most effective method to analyze structures under such events. However, for accurate numerical simulations, reliable constitutive models are needed. Assuming that failure of concrete elements subjected to blast is primarily governed by the tensile behavior, a constitutive model has been built that accounts only for failure under tension while it behaves as elastic without failure under compression. Failure under tension is based on the Cohesive Crack Model. Moreover, the constitutive model has been used to simulate the experimental structural response of reinforced concrete slabs subjected to blast. The results of the numerical simulations with the aforementioned constitutive model show its ability of representing accurately the structural response of the RC elements under study. The simplicity of the model, which does not account for failure under compression, as already mentioned, confirms that the ability of reinforced concrete structures to withstand blast loads is primarily governed by tensile strength.

Behaviour of Concrete Structural Members Subjected to Air Blast Loading

Numerical analysis is a suitable tool in the design of complex reinforced concrete structures under extreme impulsive loadings such as impacts or explosions at close range. Such events may be the result of terrorist attacks. Reinforced concrete is commonly used for buildings and infrastructures. For this reason, the ability to accurately run numerical simulations of concrete elements subjected to blast loading is needed. In this context, reliable constitutive models for concrete are of capital importance. In this research numerical simulations using two different constitutive models for concrete (Continuous Surface Cap Model and Brittle Damage Model) have been carried out using LS-DYNA. Two experimental benchmark tests have been taken as reference. The results of the numerical simulations with the aforementioned constitutive models show different abilities to accurately represent the structural response of the reinforced concrete elements studied.

Smart aeronautical structures: development and experimental validation of a structural health monitoring system for damage detection

En muchas áreas de la ingeniería, la integridad y confiabilidad de las estructuras son aspectos de extrema importancia. Estos son controlados mediante el adecuado conocimiento de danos existentes. Típicamente, alcanzar el nivel de conocimiento necesario que permita caracterizar la integridad estructural implica el uso de técnicas de ensayos no destructivos. Estas técnicas son a menudo costosas y consumen mucho tiempo. En la actualidad, muchas industrias buscan incrementar la confiabilidad de las estructuras que emplean. Mediante el uso de técnicas de última tecnología es posible monitorizar las estructuras y en algunos casos, es factible detectar daños incipientes que pueden desencadenar en fallos catastróficos. Desafortunadamente, a medida que la complejidad de las estructuras, los componentes y sistemas incrementa, el riesgo de la aparición de daños y fallas también incrementa. Al mismo tiempo, la detección de dichas fallas y defectos se torna más compleja. En años recientes, la industria aeroespacial ha realizado grandes esfuerzos para integrar los sensores dentro de las estructuras, además de desarrollar algoritmos que permitan determinar la integridad estructural en tiempo real. Esta filosofía ha sido llamada “Structural Health Monitoring” (o “Monitorización de Salud Estructural” en español) y este tipo de estructuras han recibido el nombre de “Smart Structures” (o “Estructuras Inteligentes” en español). Este nuevo tipo de estructuras integran materiales, sensores, actuadores y algoritmos para detectar, cuantificar y localizar daños dentro de ellas mismas. Una novedosa metodología para detección de daños en estructuras se propone en este trabajo. La metodología está basada en mediciones de deformación y consiste en desarrollar técnicas de reconocimiento de patrones en el campo de deformaciones. Estas últimas, basadas en PCA (Análisis de Componentes Principales) y otras técnicas de reducción dimensional. Se propone el uso de Redes de difracción de Bragg y medidas distribuidas como sensores de deformación. La metodología se validó mediante pruebas a escala de laboratorio y pruebas a escala real con estructuras complejas. Los efectos de las condiciones de carga variables fueron estudiados y diversos experimentos fueron realizados para condiciones de carga estáticas y dinámicas, demostrando que la metodología es robusta ante condiciones de carga desconocidas. ABSTRACT In many engineering fields, the integrity and reliability of the structures are extremely important aspects. They are controlled by the adequate knowledge of existing damages. Typically, achieving the level of knowledge necessary to characterize the structural integrity involves the usage of nondestructive testing techniques. These are often expensive and time consuming. Nowadays, many industries look to increase the reliability of the structures used. By using leading edge techniques it is possible to monitoring these structures and in some cases, detect incipient damage that could trigger catastrophic failures. Unfortunately, as the complexity of the structures, components and systems increases, the risk of damages and failures also increases. At the same time, the detection of such failures and defects becomes more difficult. In recent years, the aerospace industry has done great efforts to integrate the sensors within the structures and, to develop algorithms for determining the structural integrity in real time. The ‘philosophy’ has being called “Structural Health Monitoring” and these structures have been called “smart structures”. These new types of structures integrate materials, sensors, actuators and algorithms to detect, quantify and locate damage within itself. A novel methodology for damage detection in structures is proposed. The methodology is based on strain measurements and consists in the development of strain field pattern recognition techniques. The aforementioned are based on PCA (Principal Component Analysis) and other dimensional reduction techniques. The use of fiber Bragg gratings and distributed sensing as strain sensors is proposed. The methodology have been validated by using laboratory scale tests and real scale tests with complex structures. The effects of the variable load conditions were studied and several experiments were performed for static and dynamic load conditions, demonstrating that the methodology is robust under unknown load conditions.

Sight distance studies on roads: influence of digital elevation models and roadside elements

Sight distance plays an important role in road traffic safety. Two types of Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) are utilized for the estimation of available sight distance in roads: Digital Terrain Models (DTMs) and Digital Surface Models (DSMs). DTMs, which represent the bare ground surface, are commonly used to determine available sight distance at the design stage. Additionally, the use of DSMs provides further information about elements by the roadsides such as trees, buildings, walls or even traffic signals which may reduce available sight distance. This document analyses the influence of three classes of DEMs in available sight distance estimation. For this purpose, diverse roads within the Region of Madrid (Spain) have been studied using software based on geographic information systems. The study evidences the influence of using each DEM in the outcome as well as the pros and cons of using each model.

Distributed Estimation of Distribution Algorithms for continuous optimization: how does the exchanged information influence their behavior?

One of the most promising areas in which probabilistic graphical models have shown an incipient activity is the field of heuristic optimization and, in particular, in Estimation of Distribution Algorithms. Due to their inherent parallelism, different research lines have been studied trying to improve Estimation of Distribution Algorithms from the point of view of execution time and/or accuracy. Among these proposals, we focus on the so-called distributed or island-based models. This approach defines several islands (algorithms instances) running independently and exchanging information with a given frequency. The information sent by the islands can be either a set of individuals or a probabilistic model. This paper presents a comparative study for a distributed univariate Estimation of Distribution Algorithm and a multivariate version, paying special attention to the comparison of two alternative methods for exchanging information, over a wide set of parameters and problems ? the standard benchmark developed for the IEEE Workshop on Evolutionary Algorithms and other Metaheuristics for Continuous Optimization Problems of the ISDA 2009 Conference. Several analyses from different points of view have been conducted to analyze both the influence of the parameters and the relationships between them including a characterization of the configurations according to their behavior on the proposed benchmark.

Some recent applications of non-linear models to the engineering practice

The Department of Structural Analysis of the University of Santander has been for a longtime involved in the solution of the country´s practical engineering problems. Some of these have required the use of non-conventional methods of analysis, in order to achieve adequate engineering answers. As an example of the increasing application of non-linear computer codes in the nowadays engineering practice, some cases will be briefly presented. In each case, only the main features of the problem involved and the solution used to solve it will be shown

Building intuition of iron evolution during solar cell processing through analysis of different process models

An important aspect of Process Simulators for photovoltaics is prediction of defect evolution during device fabrication. Over the last twenty years, these tools have accelerated process optimization, and several Process Simulators for iron, a ubiquitous and deleterious impurity in silicon, have been developed. The diversity of these tools can make it difficult to build intuition about the physics governing iron behavior during processing. Thus, in one unified software environment and using self-consistent terminology, we combine and describe three of these Simulators. We vary structural defect distribution and iron precipitation equations to create eight distinct Models, which we then use to simulate different stages of processing. We find that the structural defect distribution influences the final interstitial iron concentration ([Fe-i]) more strongly than the iron precipitation equations. We identify two regimes of iron behavior: (1) diffusivity-limited, in which iron evolution is kinetically limited and bulk [Fe-i] predictions can vary by an order of magnitude or more, and (2) solubility-limited, in which iron evolution is near thermodynamic equilibrium and the Models yield similar results. This rigorous analysis provides new intuition that can inform Process Simulation, material, and process development, and it enables scientists and engineers to choose an appropriate level of Model complexity based on wafer type and quality, processing conditions, and available computation time.

Deformable templates for plaque thickness estimation of intravascular ultrasound sequences

Comunicación presentada en el VII Symposium Nacional de Reconocimiento de Formas y Análisis de Imágenes, SNRFAI, Barcelona, abril 1997.

Algorithm for Correcting the Keratometric Error in the Estimation of the Corneal Power in Eyes With Previous Myopic Laser Refractive Surgery

Purpose: To calculate theoretically the errors in the estimation of corneal power when using the keratometric index (nk) in eyes that underwent laser refractive surgery for the correction of myopia and to define and validate clinically an algorithm for minimizing such errors. Methods: Differences between corneal power estimation by using the classical nk and by using the Gaussian equation in eyes that underwent laser myopic refractive surgery were simulated and evaluated theoretically. Additionally, an adjusted keratometric index (nkadj) model dependent on r1c was developed for minimizing these differences. The model was validated clinically by retrospectively using the data from 32 myopic eyes [range, −1.00 to −6.00 diopters (D)] that had undergone laser in situ keratomileusis using a solid-state laser platform. The agreement between Gaussian (PGaussc) and adjusted keratometric (Pkadj) corneal powers in such eyes was evaluated. Results: It was found that overestimations of corneal power up to 3.5 D were possible for nk = 1.3375 according to our simulations. The nk value to avoid the keratometric error ranged between 1.2984 and 1.3297. The following nkadj models were obtained: nkadj= −0.0064286r1c + 1.37688 (Gullstrand eye model) and nkadj = −0.0063804r1c + 1.37806 (Le Grand). The mean difference between Pkadj and PGaussc was 0.00 D, with limits of agreement of −0.45 and +0.46 D. This difference correlated significantly with the posterior corneal radius (r = −0.94, P < 0.01). Conclusions: The use of a single nk for estimating the corneal power in eyes that underwent a laser myopic refractive surgery can lead to significant errors. These errors can be minimized by using a variable nk dependent on r1c.

Estimation of Key Dates and Stages in Rice Crops Using Dual-Polarization SAR Time Series and a Particle Filtering Approach

Information of crop phenology is essential for evaluating crop productivity. In a previous work, we determined phenological stages with remote sensing data using a dynamic system framework and an extended Kalman filter (EKF) approach. In this paper, we demonstrate that the particle filter is a more reliable method to infer any phenological stage compared to the EKF. The improvements achieved with this approach are discussed. In addition, this methodology enables the estimation of key cultivation dates, thus providing a practical product for many applications. The dates of some important stages, as the sowing date and the day when the crop reaches the panicle initiation stage, have been chosen to show the potential of this technique.

Estimation of the Proportion of Underachieving Students in Compulsory Secondary Education in Spain: An Application of the Rasch Model

There are very few studies in Spain that treat underachievement rigorously, and those that do are typically related to gifted students. The present study examined the proportion of underachieving students using the Rasch measurement model. A sample of 643 first-year high school students (mean age = 12.09; SD = 0.47) from 8 schools in the province of Alicante (Spain) completed the Battery of Differential and General Skills (Badyg), and these students' General Points Average (GPAs) were recovered by teachers. Dichotomous and Partial credit Rasch models were performed. After adjusting the measurement instruments, the individual underachievement index provided a total sample of 181 underachieving students, or 28.14% of the total sample across the ability levels. This study confirms that the Rasch measurement model can accurately estimate the construct validity of both the intelligence test and the academic grades for the calculation of underachieving students. Furthermore, the present study constitutes a pioneer framework for the estimation of the prevalence of underachievement in Spain.

Contribution to Real-Time Estimation of Crop Phenological States in a Dynamical Framework Based on NDVI Time Series: Data Fusion With SAR and Temperature

In this study, a methodology based in a dynamical framework is proposed to incorporate additional sources of information to normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) time series of agricultural observations for a phenological state estimation application. The proposed implementation is based on the particle filter (PF) scheme that is able to integrate multiple sources of data. Moreover, the dynamics-led design is able to conduct real-time (online) estimations, i.e., without requiring to wait until the end of the campaign. The evaluation of the algorithm is performed by estimating the phenological states over a set of rice fields in Seville (SW, Spain). A Landsat-5/7 NDVI series of images is complemented with two distinct sources of information: SAR images from the TerraSAR-X satellite and air temperature information from a ground-based station. An improvement in the overall estimation accuracy is obtained, especially when the time series of NDVI data is incomplete. Evaluations on the sensitivity to different development intervals and on the mitigation of discontinuities of the time series are also addressed in this work, demonstrating the benefits of this data fusion approach based on the dynamic systems.