Atheroma: Is calcium important or not? A modelling study of stress within the atheromatous fibrous cap in relation to position and size of calcium deposits

Atheromatous plaque rupture h the cause of the majority of strokes and heart attacks in the developed world. The role of calcium deposits and their contribution to plaque vulnerability are controversial. Some studies have suggested that calcified plaque tends to be more stable whereas others have suggested the opposite. This study uses a finite element model to evaluate the effect of calcium deposits on the stress within the fibrous cap by varying their location and size. Plaque fibrous cap, lipid pool and calcification were modeled as hyperelastic, Isotropic, (nearly) incompressible materials with different properties for large deformation analysis by assigning time-dependent pressure loading on the lumen wall. The stress and strain contours were illustrated for each condition for comparison. Von Mises stress only increases up to 1.5% when varying the location of calcification in the lipid pool distant to the fibrous cap. Calcification in the fibrous cap leads to a 43% increase of Von Mises stress when compared with that in the lipid pool. An increase of 100% of calcification area leads to a 15% stress increase in the fibrous cap. Calcification in the lipid pool does not increase fibrous cap stress when it is distant to the fibrous cap, whilst large areas of calcification close to or in the fibrous cap may lead to a high stress concentration within the fibrous cap, which may cause plaque rupture. This study highlights the application of a computational model on a simulation of clinical problems, and it may provide insights into the mechanism of plaque rupture.

Improved estimation of size-transition matrices using tag-recapture data

We derive a new method for determining size-transition matrices (STMs) that eliminates probabilities of negative growth and accounts for individual variability. STMs are an important part of size-structured models, which are used in the stock assessment of aquatic species. The elements of STMs represent the probability of growth from one size class to another, given a time step. The growth increment over this time step can be modelled with a variety of methods, but when a population construct is assumed for the underlying growth model, the resulting STM may contain entries that predict negative growth. To solve this problem, we use a maximum likelihood method that incorporates individual variability in the asymptotic length, relative age at tagging, and measurement error to obtain von Bertalanffy growth model parameter estimates. The statistical moments for the future length given an individual's previous length measurement and time at liberty are then derived. We moment match the true conditional distributions with skewed-normal distributions and use these to accurately estimate the elements of the STMs. The method is investigated with simulated tag-recapture data and tag-recapture data gathered from the Australian eastern king prawn (Melicertus plebejus).

Statistical power calculation and sample size determination for environmental studies with data below detection limits

Power calculation and sample size determination are critical in designing environmental monitoring programs. The traditional approach based on comparing the mean values may become statistically inappropriate and even invalid when substantial proportions of the response values are below the detection limits or censored because strong distributional assumptions have to be made on the censored observations when implementing the traditional procedures. In this paper, we propose a quantile methodology that is robust to outliers and can also handle data with a substantial proportion of below-detection-limit observations without the need of imputing the censored values. As a demonstration, we applied the methods to a nutrient monitoring project, which is a part of the Perth Long-Term Ocean Outlet Monitoring Program. In this example, the sample size required by our quantile methodology is, in fact, smaller than that by the traditional t-test, illustrating the merit of our method.

An extravariation model for improving confidence intervals of population size estimates from removal data

We propose a new model for estimating the size of a population from successive catches taken during a removal experiment. The data from these experiments often have excessive variation, known as overdispersion, as compared with that predicted by the multinomial model. The new model allows catchability to vary randomly among samplings, which accounts for overdispersion. When the catchability is assumed to have a beta distribution, the likelihood function, which is refered to as beta-multinomial, is derived, and hence the maximum likelihood estimates can be evaluated. Simulations show that in the presence of extravariation in the data, the confidence intervals have been substantially underestimated in previous models (Leslie-DeLury, Moran) and that the new model provides more reliable confidence intervals. The performance of these methods was also demonstrated using two real data sets: one with overdispersion, from smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu), and the other without overdispersion, from rat (Rattus rattus).

Size-dependent natural mortality of juvenile banana prawns Penaeus merguiensis in the Gulf of Carpentaria, Australia

Natural mortality of marine invertebrates is often very high in the early life history stages and decreases in later stages. The possible size-dependent mortality of juvenile banana prawns, P. merguiensis (2-15 mm carapace length) in the Gulf of Carpentaria was investigated. The analysis was based on the data collected at 2-weekly intervals by beam trawls at four sites over a period of six years (between September 1986 and March 1992). It was assumed that mortality was a parametric function of size, rather than a constant. Another complication in estimating mortality for juvenile banana prawns is that a significant proportion of the population emigrates from the study area each year. This effect was accounted for by incorporating the size-frequency pattern of the emigrants in the analysis. Both the extra parameter in the model required to describe the size dependence of mortality, and that used to account for emigration were found to be significantly different from zero, and the instantaneous mortality rate declined from 0.89 week(-1) for 2 mm prawns to 0.02 week(-1) for 15 mm prawns.

Does the size of subsamples taken from multispecies trawl catches affect estimates of catch composition and abundance?

Although subsampling is a common method for describing the composition of large and diverse trawl catches, the accuracy of these techniques is often unknown. We determined the sampling errors generated from estimating the percentage of the total number of species recorded in catches, as well as the abundance of each species, at each increase in the proportion of the sorted catch. We completely partitioned twenty prawn trawl catches from tropical northern Australia into subsamples of about 10 kg each. All subsamples were then sorted, and species numbers recorded. Catch weights ranged from 71 to 445 kg, and the number of fish species in trawls ranged from 60 to 138, and invertebrate species from 18 to 63. Almost 70% of the species recorded in catches were "rare" in subsamples (less than one individual per 10 kg subsample or less than one in every 389 individuals). A matrix was used to show the increase in the total number of species that were recorded in each catch as the percentage of the sorted catch increased. Simulation modelling showed that sorting small subsamples (about 10% of catch weights) identified about 50% of the total number of species caught in a trawl. Larger subsamples (50% of catch weight on average) identified about 80% of the total species caught in a trawl. The accuracy of estimating the abundance of each species also increased with increasing subsample size. For the "rare" species, sampling error was around 80% after sorting 10% of catch weight and was just less than 50% after 40% of catch weight had been sorted. For the "abundant" species (five or more individuals per 10 kg subsample or five or more in every 389 individuals), sampling error was around 25% after sorting 10% of catch weight, but was reduced to around 10% after 40% of catch weight had been sorted.

A Bayesian decision approach for sample size determination in phase II trials

Stallard (1998, Biometrics 54, 279-294) recently used Bayesian decision theory for sample-size determination in phase II trials. His design maximizes the expected financial gains in the development of a new treatment. However, it results in a very high probability (0.65) of recommending an ineffective treatment for phase III testing. On the other hand, the expected gain using his design is more than 10 times that of a design that tightly controls the false positive error (Thall and Simon, 1994, Biometrics 50, 337-349). Stallard's design maximizes the expected gain per phase II trial, but it does not maximize the rate of gain or total gain for a fixed length of time because the rate of gain depends on the proportion: of treatments forwarding to the phase III study. We suggest maximizing the rate of gain, and the resulting optimal one-stage design becomes twice as efficient as Stallard's one-stage design. Furthermore, the new design has a probability of only 0.12 of passing an ineffective treatment to phase III study.

Female Reproductive Biology and Spawning Periodicity of Two Species of King Prawns, Penaeus longistylus Kubo and Penaeus latisulcatus Kishinouye, from Queensland's East Coast Fishery

In the coastal region of central Queensland female red-spot king prawns, P. longistylus, and the western or blue-leg king prawns, P. latisulcatus, had high mean ovary weights and high proportions of advanced ovary development during the winter months of July and August of 1985 and 1986. On the basis of insemination, both species began copulating at the size of 26-27 mm CL, but P. longistylus matured and spawned at a smaller size than P. latisulcatus. Abundance of P. longistylus was generally three to four times greater than that of P. latisulcatus but the latter was subject to greater variation in abundance. Low mean ovary weight and low proportions of females with advanced ovaries were associated with the maximum mean bottom sea-water temperature (28.5ºC) for both species. Population fecundity indices indicated that peaks in yolk or egg production (a) displayed a similar pattern for both species, (b) varied in timing from year to year for both species and (c) were strongly influenced by abundance. Generally, sample estimates of abundance and commercial catch rates (CPUE) showed similar trends. Differences between the two may have been due to changes in targeted commercial effort in this multi-species fishery.

Spawning stock dynamics of two penaeid prawns, Metapenaeus bennettae and Penaeus esculentus, in Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia

Spawning stock dynamics of 2 commercially important penaeid prawns, Metapenaeus bennettae and Penaeus esculentus, from 9 stations in Moreton Bay (27°15'S, 153°15'E), southeast Queensland, Australia, were examined. An egg production index (EPI), based on the relative abundance, proportion that were mature or ripe, and size of adult females, was used as a measure of egg production in the 2 populations. Egg production by M. bennettae was 20 to 30 higher than that by P. esculentus, extended over 7 to 8 mo each year and peaked from February to March (late summer to early autumn). Monthly patterns in egg production by M. bennettae varied between years. In contrast, P. esculentus produced most of its eggs in a single, clearly defined peak in October (spring), although production continued to March (early autumn) each year. The seasonal onset and subsequent decline in maturation in P. esculentus were rapid. Egg production by M. bennettae was several times higher at the 5 northern stations than at the 4 southern stations and negatively correlated with salinity during the main spawning period. Egg production by P. esculentus was less varied among stations and positively correlated with depth. P. esculentus appeared more likely than M. bennettae to experience recruitment overfishing because (1) the peak spawning period for P. esculentus was dependent on relatively few adult females spawning over a short period, and (2) the selectivity of trawl nets used in the bay was much higher for P. esculentus spawners than for those of M. bennettae. Compared with more northern populations, P. esculentus in Moreton Bay matured at a larger size, had lower incidences of insemination and mature or ripe females, and had a shorter spawning period. These results suggest the likelihood of recruitment overfishing in P. esculentus increases with increasing latitude.

Breeding and fecundity of the endemic Australian gudgeon, sleepy cod Oxyeleotris lineolatus (Steindachner 1867) (Eleotridae)

Sleepy cod (Oxyeleotris lineolatus Steindachner) is a tropical species of eleotrid native to northern Australia. A related species, sand or marbled goby, is the highest priced freshwater fish in Asia, and a market for a similar fish exists in expatriate Chinese communities. Sleepy cod breed when minimum temperatures reach 24 °C for more than 3 days. During the breeding season the genital papilla is broad and flattened in females compared to the triangular papilla of males and juveniles. Spawning pairs were usually of approximately equal size. Females could spawn up to 10 times during one breeding season. Wet weather increased the frequency of spawning. Eggs were usually laid hanging from the underside of a surface. Most spawning occurred between 05:00 and 10:00 h. Females attended egg masses immediately after spawning, after which males cared for eggs until hatching, 3–5 days later. Agitation of the egg mass was essential for development. The mean number of eggs per spawning was 43 130. Larvae commenced feeding 2–5 days after hatching, on plankton from 100 to 250 m in size. A spawning trap used to collect egg masses is described. The breeding biology of sleepy cod is considered to be an adaptation to the monsoonal tropics.

Variable Size Population NSGA-II: VPNSGA-II

Multi-objective optimization is an active field of research with broad applicability in aeronautics. This report details a variant of the original NSGA-II software aimed to improve the performances of such a widely used Genetic Algorithm in finding the optimal Pareto-front of a Multi-Objective optimization problem for the use of UAV and aircraft design and optimsaiton. Original NSGA-II works on a population of predetermined constant size and its computational cost to evaluate one generation is O(mn^2 ), being m the number of objective functions and n the population size. The basic idea encouraging this work is that of reduce the computational cost of the NSGA-II algorithm by making it work on a population of variable size, in order to obtain better convergence towards the Pareto-front in less time. In this work some test functions will be tested with both original NSGA-II and VPNSGA-II algorithms; each test will be timed in order to get a measure of the computational cost of each trial and the results will be compared.

Size-dependent melting of nanoparticles: Hundred years of thermodynamic model

Thermodynamic model first published in 1909, is being used extensively to understand the size-dependent melting of nanoparticles. Pawlow deduced an expression for the size-dependent melting temperature of small particles based on the thermodynamic model which was then modified and applied to different nanostructures such as nanowires, prism-shaped nanoparticles, etc. The model has also been modified to understand the melting of supported nanoparticles and superheating of embedded nanoparticles. In this article, we have reviewed the melting behaviour of nanostructures reported in the literature since 1909.

Egg parasitoids of the diamondback moth, Plutella xylostella (L.) (Lepidoptera: Plutellidae), from south-east Queensland

Field surveys of egg parasitoids of the diamondback moth, Plutella xylostella, were conducted at Redlands and Gatton, south-east Queensland. Eggs of P. xylostella were present all year round in both localities, and parasitized eggs were consistently found between late spring and early winter. Percent parasitism in the range 30–75% was recorded on many occasions, although rates less than 10% were more common. The major parasitoids included Trichogrammatoidea bactrae Nagaraja and Trichogramma pretiosum Riley. Laboratory evaluation showed that the T. pretiosum from Gatton has a high capacity to parasitize P. xylostella eggs under suitable conditions. This study represents the first record of egg parasitoids of P. xylostella from Australia.

Unusual stress and grain size dependence for creep in nanocrystalline materials

Analyses of diffusion and dislocation creep in nanocrystals needs to take into account the generally utilized low temperatures, high stresses and very fine grain sizes. In nanocrystals, diffusion creep may be associated with a nonlinear stress dependence and dislocation creep may involve a grain size dependence.