Introduction of African Swine Fever into the European Union through Illegal Importation of Pork and Pork Products

Transboundary animal diseases can have very severe socio-economic impacts when introduced into new regions. The history of disease incursions into the European Union suggests that initial outbreaks were often initiated by illegal importation of meat and derived products. The European Union would benefit from decision-support tools to evaluate the risk of disease introduction caused by illegal imports in order to inform its surveillance strategy. However, due to the difficulty in quantifying illegal movements of animal products, very few studies of this type have been conducted. Using African swine fever as an example, this work presents a novel risk assessment framework for disease introduction into the European Union through illegal importation of meat and products. It uses a semi-quantitative approach based on factors that likely influence the likelihood of release of contaminated smuggled meat and products, and subsequent exposure of the susceptible population. The results suggest that the European Union is at non-negligible risk of African swine fever.

Estimation of Convective Extreme Events over Germany based on Large Scale Parameters

Strong convective events can produce extreme precipitation, hail, lightning or gusts, potentially inducing severe socio-economic impacts. These events have a relatively small spatial extension and, in most cases, a short lifetime. In this study, a model is developed for estimating convective extreme events based on large scale conditions. It is shown that strong convective events can be characterized by a Weibull distribution of radar-based rainfall with a low shape and high scale parameter value. A radius of 90km around a station reporting a convective situation turned out to be suitable. A methodology is developed to estimate the Weibull parameters and thus the occurrence probability of convective events from large scale atmospheric instability and enhanced near-surface humidity, which are usually found on a larger scale than the convective event itself. Here, the probability for the occurrence of extreme convective events is estimated from the KO-index indicating the stability, and relative humidity at 1000hPa. Both variables are computed from ERA-Interim reanalysis. In a first version of the methodology, these two variables are applied to estimate the spatial rainfall distribution and to estimate the occurrence of a convective event. The developed method shows significant skill in estimating the occurrence of convective events as observed at synoptic stations, lightning measurements, and severe weather reports. In order to take frontal influences into account, a scheme for the detection of atmospheric fronts is implemented. While generally higher instability is found in the vicinity of fronts, the skill of this approach is largely unchanged. Additional improvements were achieved by a bias-correction and the use of ERA-Interim precipitation. The resulting estimation method is applied to the ERA-Interim period (1979-2014) to establish a ranking of estimated convective extreme events. Two strong estimated events that reveal a frontal influence are analysed in detail. As a second application, the method is applied to GCM-based decadal predictions in the period 1979-2014, which were initialized every year. It is shown that decadal predictive skill for convective event frequencies over Germany is found for the first 3-4 years after the initialization.

Lost fishing gear and litter at Gorringe Bank (NE Atlantic)

Studies concerning marine litter have received great attention over the last several years by the scientific community mainly due to their ecological and economic impacts in marine ecosystems, from coastal waters to the deep ocean seafloor. The distribution, type and abundance of marine litter in Ormonde and Gettysburg, the two seamounts of Gorringe Bank, were analyzed from photo and video imagery obtained during ROV-based surveys carried out at 60–3015 m depths during the E/V Nautilus cruise NA017. Located approximately 125 nm southwest of Portugal, Gorringe Bank lays at the crossroad between the Atlantic and the Mediterranean and is therefore characterized by an intense maritime traffic and fishing activities. The high frequency of lost or discarded fishing gear, such as cables, longlines and nets, observed on Gorringe Bank suggests an origin mostly fromfishing activities,with a clear turnover in the type of litter (mostly metal, glass and to amuch lesser extent, plastic) with increasing depth. Litter was more abundant at the summit of Gorringe Bank (ca. 4 items·km−1), decreasing to less than 1 item·km−1 at the flanks and to ca. 2 items·km−1 at greater depths. Nevertheless, litter abundance appeared to be lower than in continental margin areas. The results presented herein are a contribution to support further actions for the conservation of vulnerable habitats on Gorringe Bank so that they can continue contributing to fishery productivity in the surrounding region.

New prophylactic and therapeutic treatments to combat pathogenic Enterohaemorrhagic Escherichia coli

Bacterial diarrhoeal diseases have significant influence on global human health, and are a leading cause of preventable death in the developing world. Enterohaemorrhagic Escherichia coli (EHEC), pathogenic strains of E. coli that carry potent toxins, have been associated with a high number of large-scale outbreaks caused by contaminated food and water sources. This pathotype produces diarrhoea and haemorrhagic colitis in infected humans, and in some patients leads to the development of haemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS), which can result in mortality and chronic kidney disease. A major obstacle to the treatment of EHEC infections is the increased risk of HUS development that is associated with antibiotic treatment, and rehydration and renal support are often the only options available. New treatments designed to prevent or clear E. coli infections and reduce symptoms of illness would therefore have large public health and economic impacts. The three main aims of this thesis were: to explore mouse models for pre-clinical evaluation in vivo of small compounds that inhibit a major EHEC colonisation factor, to assess the production and role of two proteins considered promising candidates for a broad-spectrum vaccine against pathogenic E. coli, and to investigate a novel compound that has recently been identified as a potential inhibitor of EHEC toxin production. As EHEC cannot be safely tested in humans due to the risk of HUS development, appropriate small animal models are required for in vivo testing of new drugs. A number of different mouse models have been developed to replicate different features of EHEC pathogenesis, several of which we investigated with a focus on colonisation mediated by the Type III Secretion System (T3SS), a needle-like structure that translocates bacterial proteins into host cells, resulting in a tight, intimate attachment between pathogen and host, aiding colonisation of the gastrointestinal tract. As E. coli models were found not to depend significantly on the T3SS for colonisation, the Citrobacter rodentium model, a natural mouse pathogen closely related to E. coli, was deemed the most suitable mouse model currently available for in vivo testing of T3SS-targeting compounds. Two bacterial proteins, EaeH (an outer membrane adhesin) and YghJ (a putative secreted lipoprotein), highly conserved surface-associated proteins recently identified as III protective antigens against E. coli infection of mice, were explored in order to determine their suitability as candidates for a human vaccine against pathogenic E. coli. We focused on the expression and function of these proteins in the EHEC O157:H7 EDL933 strain and the adherent-invasive E. coli (AIEC) LF82 strain. Although expression of EaeH by other E. coli pathotypes has recently been shown to be upregulated upon contact with host intestinal cells, no evidence of this upregulation could be demonstrated in our strains. Additionally, while YghJ was produced by the AIEC strain, it was not secreted by bacteria under conditions that other YghJ-expressing E. coli pathotypes do, despite the AIEC strain carrying all the genes required to encode the secretion system it is associated with. While our findings indicate that a vaccine that raises antibodies against EaeH and YghJ may have limited effect on the EHEC and AIEC strains we used, recent studies into these proteins in different E. coli pathogens have suggested they are still excellent candidates for a broadly effective vaccine against E. coli. Finally, we characterised a small lead compound, identified by high-throughput screening as a possible inhibitor of Shiga toxin expression. Shiga toxin production causes both the symptoms of illness and development of HUS, and thus reduction of toxin production, release, or binding to host receptors could therefore be an effective way to treat infections and decrease the risk of HUS. Inhibition of Shiga toxin production by this compound was confirmed, and was shown to be caused by an inhibitory effect on activation of the bacterial SOS response rather than on the Shiga toxin genes themselves. The bacterial target of this compound was identified as RecA, a major regulator of the SOS response, and we hypothesise that the compound binds covalently to its target, preventing oligomerisation of RecA into an activated filament. Altogether, the results presented here provide an improved understanding of these different approaches to combating EHEC infection, which will aid the development of safe and effective vaccines and anti-virulence treatments against EHEC.

Las dos caras de la organización del mundial FIFA Brasil 2014: Entre la proyección internacional y las denuncias sociales

El orgullo brasileño estalló en el año 2007, cuando Brasil fue elegido sede del mundial FIFA 2014. Esto se debe a que Brasil en ese momento gozaba de un creciente prestigio internacional por cuenta de su condición de Potencia Emergente, miembro de los BRICS, aspirante a un puesto permanente en el Consejo de Seguridad y contar con la selección de fútbol más exitosa de la historia. No obstante, en su afán por incrementar su visibilidad y proyección internacional acudió al ejercicio del Poder Blando, a través de la Diplomacia Cultural, concretamente se decidió por la Organización de Mega Eventos deportivos, al tiempo que debía enfrentar varios problemas en el ámbito interno (desigualdad, corrupción, pobreza). Así, esta estrategia de aplicación del Poder Blando resultó de cierta manera contraproducente, debido a que la política exterior y su éxito no suele estar disociada de la realidad interna.

Methods and tools to foster territorial approaches for the assessment of food supply chains

The challenges of the current global food systems are often framed around feeding the world's growing population while meeting sustainable development for future generations. Globalization has brought to a fragmentation of food spaces, leading to a flexible and mutable supply chain. This poses a major challenge to food and nutrition security, affecting also rural-urban dynamics in territories. Furthermore, the recent crises have highlighted the vulnerability to shocks and disruptions of the food systems and the eco-system due to the intensive management of natural, human and economic capital. Hence, a sustainable and resilient transition of the food systems is required through a multi-faceted approach that tackles the causes of unsustainability and promotes sustainable practices at all levels of the food system. In this respect, a territorial approach becomes a relevant entry point of analysis for the food system’s multifunctionality and can support the evaluation of sustainability by quantifying impacts associated with quantitative methods and understanding the territorial responsibility of different actors with qualitative ones. Against this background the present research aims to i) investigate the environmental, costing and social indicators suitable for a scoring system able to measure the integrated sustainability performance of food initiatives within the City/Region territorial context; ii) develop a territorial assessment framework to measure sustainability impacts of agricultural systems; and iii) define an integrated methodology to match production and consumption at a territorial level to foster a long-term vision of short food supply chains. From a methodological perspective, the research proposes a mixed quantitative and qualitative research method. The outcomes provide an in-depth view into the environmental and socio-economic impacts of food systems at the territorial level, investigating possible indicators, frameworks, and business strategies to foster their future sustainable development.

Economic performance of Brazilian manufacturing firms: a counterfactual analysis of innovation impacts

This article assesses if innovators outperform non-innovators in Brazilian manufacturing during 1996-2002. To do so, we begin with a simple theoretical model and test the impacts of technological innovation (treatment) on innovating firms (treated) by employing propensity score matching techniques. Correcting for the survivorship bias in the period, it was verified that, on an average, the accomplishment of technological innovations produces positive and significant impacts on the employment, the net revenue, the labor productivity, the capital productivity, and market share of the firms. However, this result was not observed for the mark-up. Especially, the net revenue reflects more robustly the impacts of the innovations. Quantitatively speaking, innovating firms experienced a 10.8-12.5 percentage points (p.p. henceforth) higher growth on employment, a 18.1-21.7 p.p. higher growth on the net revenue, a 10.8-11.9 p.p. higher growth on labor productivity, a 11.8-12.0 p.p. higher growth on capital productivity, and a 19.9-24.3 p.p. higher growth on their market share, relative to the average of the non-innovating firms in the control group. It was also observed that the conjunction of product and process innovations, relative to other forms of innovation, presents the stronger impacts on the performance of Brazilian firms.

Economic and environmental impacts of pollution control in a system of environment and economic interdependence

The importance of the rate of change of the pollution stock in determining the damage to the environment has been an issue of increasing concern in the literature. This paper uses a three-sector (economy, population and environment), non-linear, discrete time, calibrated model to examine pollution control. The model explicitly links economic growth to the health of the environment. The stock of natural resources is affected by the rate of pollution flows, through their impact on the regenerative capacity of the natural resource stock. This can shed useful insights into pollution control strategies, particularly in developing countries where environmental resources are crucial for production in many sectors of the economy. Simulation exercises suggested that, under plausible assumptions, it is possible to reverse undesirable transient dynamics through pollution control expenditure, but this is dependent upon the strategies used for control. The best strategy is to spend money fostering the development of production technologies that reduce pollution rather than spending money dealing with the effects of the pollution flow into the environment. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Housing’s Economic and Social Impacts, April 2007

Housing is an investment in Iowa’s communities and people. This report investigates the following questions: What impact does affordable housing have • on neighborhoods? • on local and state economies? • on expanding and stabilizing Iowa’s labor force? • on meeting social, individual and community needs?

Long-term impacts of forest harvesting related soil disturbance on log product yields and economic potential in a New Zealand forest

Abstract

Reductions in insecticide use from adoption of Bt cotton in South Africa: impacts on economic performance and toxic load to the environment

The study reported presents the findings relating to commercial growing of genetically-modified Bt cotton in South Africa by a large sample of smallholder farmers over three seasons (1998/99, 1999/2000, 2000/01) following adoption. The analysis presents constructs and compares groupwise differences for key variables in Bt v. non-Bt technology and uses regressions to further analyse the production and profit impacts of Bt adoption. Analysis of the distribution of benefits between farmers due to the technology is also presented. In parallel with these socio-economic measures, the toxic loads being presented to the environment following the introduction of Bt cotton are monitored in terms of insecticide active ingredient (ai) and the Biocide Index. The latter adjusts ai to allow for differing persistence and toxicity of insecticides. Results show substantial and significant financial benefits to smallholder cotton growers of adopting Bt cotton over three seasons in terms of increased yields, lower insecticide spray costs and higher gross margins. This includes one particularly wet, poor growing season. In addition, those with the smaller holdings appeared to benefit proportionately more from the technology (in terms of higher gross margins) than those with larger holdings. Analysis using the Gini-coefficient suggests that the Bt technology has helped to reduce inequality amongst smallholder cotton growers in Makhathini compared to what may have been the position if they had grown conventional cotton. However, while Bt growers applied lower amounts of insecticide and had lower Biocide Indices (per ha) than growers of non-Bt cotton, some of this advantage was due to a reduction in non-bollworm insecticide. Indeed, the Biocide Index for all farmers in the population actually increased with the introduction of Bt cotton. The results indicate the complexity of such studies on the socio-economic and environmental impacts of GM varieties in the developing world.

Reductions in insecticide use from adoption of Bt cotton in South Africa: impacts on economic performance and toxic load to the environment

The study reported presents the findings relating to commercial growing of genetically-modified Bt cotton in South Africa by a large sample of smallholder farmers over three seasons (1998/99, 1999/2000, 2000/01) following adoption. The analysis presents constructs and compares groupwise differences for key variables in Bt v. non-Bt technology and uses regressions to further analyse the production and profit impacts of Bt adoption. Analysis of the distribution of benefits between farmers due to the technology is also presented. In parallel with these socio-economic measures, the toxic loads being presented to the environment following the introduction of Bt cotton are monitored in terms of insecticide active ingredient (ai) and the Biocide Index. The latter adjusts ai to allow for differing persistence and toxicity of insecticides. Results show substantial and significant financial benefits to smallholder cotton growers of adopting Bt cotton over three seasons in terms of increased yields, lower insecticide spray costs and higher gross margins. This includes one particularly wet, poor growing season. In addition, those with the smaller holdings appeared to benefit proportionately more from the technology (in terms of higher gross margins) than those with larger holdings. Analysis using the Gini-coefficient suggests that the Bt technology has helped to reduce inequality amongst smallholder cotton growers in Makhathini compared to what may have been the position if they had grown conventional cotton. However, while Bt growers applied lower amounts of insecticide and had lower Biocide Indices (per ha) than growers of non-Bt cotton, some of this advantage was due to a reduction in non-bollworm insecticide. Indeed, the Biocide Index for all farmers in the population actually increased with the introduction of Bt cotton. The results indicate the complexity of such studies on the socio-economic and environmental impacts of GM varieties in the developing world.

The global-scale impacts of climate change on water resources and flooding under new climate and socio-economic scenarios

This paper presents a preliminary assessment of the relative effects of rate of climate change (four Representative Concentration Pathways - RCPs), assumed future population (five Shared Socio-economic Pathways - SSPs), and pattern of climate change (19 CMIP5 climate models) on regional and global exposure to water resources stress and river flooding. Uncertainty in projected future impacts of climate change on exposure to water stress and river flooding is dominated by uncertainty in the projected spatial and seasonal pattern of change in climate. There is little clear difference in impact between RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 in 2050, and between RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 in 2080. Impacts under RCP8.5 are greater than under the other RCPs in 2050 and 2080. For a given RCP, there is a difference in the absolute numbers of people exposed to increased water resources stress or increased river flood frequency between the five SSPs. With the ‘middle-of-the-road’ SSP2, climate change by 2050 would increase exposure to water resources stress for between approximately 920 and 3400 million people under the highest RCP, and increase exposure to river flood risk for between 100 and 580 million people. Under RCP2.6, exposure to increased water scarcity would be reduced in 2050 by 22-24%, compared to impacts under the RCP8.5, and exposure to increased flood frequency would be reduced by around 16%. The implications of climate change for actual future losses and adaptation depend not only on the numbers of people exposed to changes in risk, but also on the qualitative characteristics of future worlds as described in the different SSPs. The difference in ‘actual’ impact between SSPs will therefore be greater than the differences in numbers of people exposed to impact.