Seismic hazard of the Iberian Peninsula: evaluation with Kernel functions

The seismic hazard of the Iberian Peninsula is analysed using a nonparametric methodology based on statistical kernel functions; the activity rate is derived from the catalogue data, both its spatial dependence (without a seismogenic zonation) and its magnitude dependence (without using Gutenberg–Richter's relationship). The catalogue is that of the Instituto Geográfico Nacional, supplemented with other catalogues around the periphery; the quantification of events has been homogenised and spatially or temporally interrelated events have been suppressed to assume a Poisson process. The activity rate is determined by the kernel function, the bandwidth and the effective periods. The resulting rate is compared with that produced using Gutenberg–Richter statistics and a zoned approach. Three attenuation relationships have been employed, one for deep sources and two for shallower events, depending on whether their magnitude was above or below 5. The results are presented as seismic hazard maps for different spectral frequencies and for return periods of 475 and 2475 yr, which allows constructing uniform hazard spectra

A search for an exotic meson in the gamma + P decaying to delta++ + pi- + eta reaction

A Partial Waves Analysis (PWA) of γp → Δ ++X → pπ+ π - (η) data taken with the CLAS detector at Jefferson Lab is presented in this work. This reaction is of interest because the Δ++ restricts the isospin of the possible X states, leaving the PWA with a smaller combination of partial waves, making it ideal to look for exotic mesons. It was proposed by Isgur and Paton that photoproduction is a plausible source for the Jpc=1–+ state through flux tube excitation. The π1(1400) is such a state that has been produced with the use of hadron production but it has yet to be seen in photoproduction. A mass independent amplitude analysis of this channel was performed, followed by a mass dependent fit to extract the resonance parameters. The procedure used an event-based maximum likelihood method to maintain all correlations in the kinematics. The intensity and phase motion is mapped out for the contributing signals without requiring assumptions about the underlying processes. The strength of the PWA is in the analysis of the phase motion, which for resonance behavior is well defined. In the data presented, the ηπ– invariant mass spectrum shows contributions from the a0(980) and a2(1320) partial waves. No π1 was observed under a clear a2 signal after the angular distributions of the decay products were analyzed using an amplitude analysis. In addition, this dissertation discusses trends in the data, along with the implemented techniques.

Global distributions of diazotrophs Gamma-A nifH genes abundance - Depth integrated values computed from a collection of source datasets - Contribution to the MAREDAT World Ocean Atlas of Plankton Functional Types

The MAREDAT atlas covers 11 types of plankton, ranging in size from bacteria to jellyfish. Together, these plankton groups determine the health and productivity of the global ocean and play a vital role in the global carbon cycle. Working within a uniform and consistent spatial and depth grid (map) of the global ocean, the researchers compiled thousands and tens of thousands of data points to identify regions of plankton abundance and scarcity as well as areas of data abundance and scarcity. At many of the grid points, the MAREDAT team accomplished the difficult conversion from abundance (numbers of organisms) to biomass (carbon mass of organisms). The MAREDAT atlas provides an unprecedented global data set for ecological and biochemical analysis and modeling as well as a clear mandate for compiling additional existing data and for focusing future data gathering efforts on key groups in key areas of the ocean. The present data set presents depth integrated values of diazotrophs Gamma-A nifH genes abundance, computed from a collection of source data sets.

Global distributions of diazotrophs abundance, biomass and nitrogen fixation rates - Collection of source datasets - Contribution to the MAREDAT World Ocean Atlas of Plankton Functional Types

The MAREDAT atlas covers 11 types of plankton, ranging in size from bacteria to jellyfish. Together, these plankton groups determine the health and productivity of the global ocean and play a vital role in the global carbon cycle. Working within a uniform and consistent spatial and depth grid (map) of the global ocean, the researchers compiled thousands and tens of thousands of data points to identify regions of plankton abundance and scarcity as well as areas of data abundance and scarcity. At many of the grid points, the MAREDAT team accomplished the difficult conversion from abundance (numbers of organisms) to biomass (carbon mass of organisms). The MAREDAT atlas provides an unprecedented global data set for ecological and biochemical analysis and modeling as well as a clear mandate for compiling additional existing data and for focusing future data gathering efforts on key groups in key areas of the ocean. The present collection presents the original data sets used to compile Global distributions of diazotrophs abundance, biomass and nitrogen fixation rates

Vision, functional and cognitive determinants of motor vehicle incidents in older drivers

Background: The proportion of older individuals in the driving population is predicted to increase in the next 50 years. This has important implications for driving safety as abilities which are important for safe driving, such as vision (which accounts for the majority of the sensory input required for driving), processing ability and cognition have been shown to decline with age. The current methods employed for screening older drivers upon re-licensure are also vision based. This study, which investigated social, behavioural and professional aspects involved with older drivers, aimed to determine: (i) if the current visual standards in place for testing upon re-licensure are effective in reducing the older driver fatality rate in Australia; (ii) if the recommended visual standards are actually implemented as part of the testing procedures by Australian optometrists; and (iii) if there are other non-standardised tests which may be better at predicting the on-road incident-risk (including near misses and minor incidents) in older drivers than those tests recommended in the standards. Methods: For the first phase of the study, state-based age- and gender-stratified numbers of older driver fatalities for 2000-2003 were obtained from the Australian Transportation Safety Bureau database. Poisson regression analyses of fatality rates were considered by renewal frequency and jurisdiction (as separate models), adjusting for possible confounding variables of age, gender and year. For the second phase, all practising optometrists in Australia were surveyed on the vision tests they conduct in consultations relating to driving and their knowledge of vision requirements for older drivers. Finally, for the third phase of the study to investigate determinants of on-road incident risk, a stratified random sample of 600 Brisbane residents aged 60 years and were selected and invited to participate using an introductory letter explaining the project requirements. In order to capture the number and type of road incidents which occurred for each participant over 12 months (including near misses and minor incidents), an important component of the prospective research study was the development and validation of a driving diary. The diary was a tool in which incidents that occurred could be logged at that time (or very close in time to which they occurred) and thus, in comparison with relying on participant memory over time, recall bias of incident occurrence was minimised. Association between all visual tests, cognition and scores obtained for non-standard functional tests with retrospective and prospective incident occurrence was investigated. Results: In the first phase,rivers aged 60-69 years had a 33% lower fatality risk (Rate Ratio [RR] = 0.75, 95% CI 0.32-1.77) in states with vision testing upon re-licensure compared with states with no vision testing upon re-licensure, however, because the CIs are wide, crossing 1.00, this result should be regarded with caution. However, overall fatality rates and fatality rates for those aged 70 years and older (RR=1.17, CI 0.64-2.13) did not differ between states with and without license renewal procedures, indicating no apparent benefit in vision testing legislation. For the second phase of the study, nearly all optometrists measured visual acuity (VA) as part of a vision assessment for re-licensing, however, 20% of optometrists did not perform any visual field (VF) testing and only 20% routinely performed automated VF on older drivers, despite the standards for licensing advocating automated VF as part of the vision standard. This demonstrates the need for more effective communication between the policy makers and those responsible for carrying out the standards. It may also indicate that the overall higher driver fatality rate in jurisdictions with vision testing requirements is resultant as the tests recommended by the standards are only partially being conducted by optometrists. Hence a standardised protocol for the screening of older drivers for re-licensure across the nation must be established. The opinions of Australian optometrists with regard to the responsibility of reporting older drivers who fail to meet the licensing standards highlighted the conflict between maintaining patient confidentiality or upholding public safety. Mandatory reporting requirements of those drivers who fail to reach the standards necessary for driving would minimise potential conflict between the patient and their practitioner, and help maintain patient trust and goodwill. The final phase of the PhD program investigated the efficacy of vision, functional and cognitive tests to discriminate between at-risk and safe older drivers. Nearly 80% of the participants experienced an incident of some form over the prospective 12 months, with the total incident rate being 4.65/10 000 km. Sixty-three percent reported having a near miss and 28% had a minor incident. The results from the prospective diary study indicate that the current vision screening tests (VA and VF) used for re-licensure do not accurately predict older drivers who are at increased odds of having an on-road incident. However, the variation in visual measurements of the cohort was narrow, also affecting the results seen with the visual functon questionnaires. Hence a larger cohort with greater variability should be considered for a future study. A slightly lower cognitive level (as measured with the Mini-Mental State Examination [MMSE]) did show an association with incident involvement as did slower reaction time (RT), however the Useful-Field-of-View (UFOV) provided the most compelling results of the study. Cut-off values of UFOV processing (>23.3ms), divided attention (>113ms), selective attention (>258ms) and overall score (moderate/ high/ very high risk) were effective in determining older drivers at increased odds of having any on-road incident and the occurrence of minor incidents. Discussion: The results have shown that for the 60-69 year age-group, there is a potential benefit in testing vision upon licence renewal. However, overall fatality rates and fatality rates for those aged 70 years and older indicated no benefit in vision testing legislation and suggests a need for inclusion of screening tests which better predict on-road incidents. Although VA is routinely performed by Australian optometrists on older drivers renewing their licence, VF is not. Therefore there is a need for a protocol to be developed and administered which would result in standardised methods conducted throughout the nation for the screening of older drivers upon re-licensure. Communication between the community, policy makers and those conducting the protocol should be maximised. By implementing a standardised screening protocol which incorporates a level of mandatory reporting by the practitioner, the ethical dilemma of breaching patient confidentiality would also be resolved. The tests which should be included in this screening protocol, however, cannot solely be ones which have been implemented in the past. In this investigation, RT, MMSE and UFOV were shown to be better determinants of on-road incidents in older drivers than VA and VF, however, as previously mentioned, there was a lack of variability in visual status within the cohort. Nevertheless, it is the recommendation from this investigation, that subject to appropriate sensitivity and specificity being demonstrated in the future using a cohort with wider variation in vision, functional performance and cognition, these tests of cognition and information processing should be added to the current protocol for the screening of older drivers which may be conducted at licensing centres across the nation.

Crystal growth from undercooling melts under strong gradients of temperatures generating in short-duration microgravity

Crystal growth of bulk CdTe in short-duration microgravity is performed by the unidirectional cooling method. The largest growth grains in microgravity samples are 4X2mm. The cooling profiles indicate undercooling melts in microgravity. Cooling melt samples in microgravity generate strong gradient of temperature due to stop thermal convections. Temperature distribution in the melt is calculated by the one-dimensional equation of heat conduction, and about 100 K-undercooling is considered to occur at the cooling surface.

Acoustic hazard detection for pedestrians with obscured hearing

Pedestrians’ use of mp3 players or mobile phones can pose the risk of being hit by motor vehicles. We present an approach for detecting a crash risk level using the computing power and the microphone of mobile devices that can be used to alert the user in advance of an approaching vehicle so as to avoid a crash. A single feature extractor classifier is not usually able to deal with the diversity of risky acoustic scenarios. In this paper, we address the problem of detection of vehicles approaching a pedestrian by a novel, simple, non resource intensive acoustic method. The method uses a set of existing statistical tools to mine signal features. Audio features are adaptively thresholded for relevance and classified with a three component heuristic. The resulting Acoustic Hazard Detection (AHD) system has a very low false positive detection rate. The results of this study could help mobile device manufacturers to embed the presented features into future potable devices and contribute to road safety.

The use of virtual prototyping for hazard identification in the early design stage

Purpose: The construction industry is well known for its high accident rate and many practitioners consider a preventative approach to be the most important means of bringing about improvements. This paper addresses previous research and the weaknesses of existing preventative approaches and a new application is described and illustrated involving the use of a multi-dimensional simulation tool - Construction Virtual Prototyping (CVP). Methodology: A literature review was conducted to investigate previous studies of hazard identification and safety management and to develop the new approach. Due to weaknesses in current practice, the research study explored the use of computer simulation techniques to create virtual environments where users can explore and identify construction hazards. Specifically, virtual prototyping technology was deployed to develop typical construction scenarios in which unsafe or hazardous incidents occur. In a case study, the users’ performance was evaluated their responses to incidents within the virtual environment and the effectiveness of the computer simulation system established though interviews with the safety project management team. Findings: The opinions and suggestions provided by the interviewees led to the initial conclusion that the simulation tool was useful in assisting the safety management team’s hazard identification process during the early design stage. Originality: The research introduces an innovative method to support the management teams’ reviews of construction site safety. The system utilises three-dimensional modelling and four-dimensional simulation of worker behaviour, a configuration that has previously not been employed in construction simulations. An illustration of the method’s use is also provided, together with a consideration of its strengths and weaknesses.

Cytokine synthesis by intestinal intraepithelial lymphocytes. Both gamma/delta T cell receptor-positive and alpha/beta T cell receptor-positive T cells in the G1 phase of cell cycle produce IFN-gamma and IL-5

Murine intestinal intraepithelial lymphocytes (IEL) have been shown to contain subsets of alpha/beta TCR+ and gamma/delta TCR+ T cells that spontaneously produce cytokines such as IFN-gamma and IL-5. We have now determined the nature and cell cycle stage of these cytokine-producing T lymphocytes in EIL by using IFN-gamma- and IL-5-specific ELISPOT assay, cytokine-specific mRNA-cDNA dot-blot hybridization and polymerase chain reaction, and flow cytometry (FACS) for DNA analysis. When CD3+ T cells from IEL of normal C3H/HeN mice were separated into low and high density fractions by discontinuous Percoll gradients, IFN-gamma and IL-5 spot-forming cells were only found in the former population. Analysis of mRNA for these cytokines by both IFN-gamma- and IL-5-specific dot-blot hybridization and polymerase chain reaction revealed that higher levels of message for IFN-gamma and IL-5 were also seen in the low density fraction. However, cell cycle analysis of these two fractions by FACS using propidium iodide showed a similar pattern of cell cycle stages in both low and high density populations (G0 + G1 approximately 96 to 98% and S/G2 + M approximately 2 to 4%). Finally, mRNA from gamma/delta TCR+ and alpha/beta TCR+ T cells in both low and high density fractions of IEL were analyzed for IFN-gamma and IL-5 message by polymerase chain reaction. After 35 cycles of amplification, both gamma/delta TCR+ and alpha/beta TCR+ T cells in the low density fraction expressed higher levels of message for these two cytokines when compared with the high density population. These results have now shown that both gamma/delta and alpha/beta TCR+ IEL can be separated into low and high density subsets and both fractions possess a similar stage of cell cycle. However, only the low density cells (in G1 phase) of both gamma/delta and alpha/beta TCR types possess increased cytokine-specific mRNA and produce the cytokines IFN-gamma and IL-5. Our results suggest that alpha/beta TCR+ and gamma/delta TCR+ IEL can produce cytokines without cell proliferation.

Traffic incident clearance time and arrival time prediction based on hazard models

Accurate prediction of incident duration is not only important information of Traffic Incident Management System, but also an ffective input for travel time prediction. In this paper, the hazard based prediction odels are developed for both incident clearance time and arrival time. The data are obtained from the Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads’ STREAMS Incident Management System (SIMS) for one year ending in November 2010. The best fitting distributions are drawn for both clearance and arrival time for 3 types of incident: crash, stationary vehicle, and hazard. The results show that Gamma, Log-logistic, and Weibull are the best fit for crash, stationary vehicle, and hazard incident, respectively. The obvious impact factors are given for crash clearance time and arrival time. The quantitative influences for crash and hazard incident are presented for both clearance and arrival. The model accuracy is analyzed at the end.

The impact of mobile phone distraction on the braking behaviour of young drivers : a hazard-based duration model

Braking is a crucial driving task with a direct relationship with crash risk, as both excess and inadequate braking can lead to collisions. The objective of this study was to compare the braking profile of young drivers distracted by mobile phone conversations to non-distracted braking. In particular, the braking behaviour of drivers in response to a pedestrian entering a zebra crossing was examined using the CARRS-Q Advanced Driving Simulator. Thirty-two licensed drivers drove the simulator in three phone conditions: baseline (no phone conversation), hands-free, and handheld. In addition to driving the simulator, each participant completed questionnaires related to driver demographics, driving history, usage of mobile phones while driving, and general mobile phone usage history. The drivers were 18–26 years old and split evenly by gender. A linear mixed model analysis of braking profiles along the roadway before the pedestrian crossing revealed comparatively increased decelerations among distracted drivers, particularly during the initial 20 kph of deceleration. Drivers’ initial 20 kph deceleration time was modelled using a parametric accelerated failure time (AFT) hazard-based duration model with a Weibull distribution with clustered heterogeneity to account for the repeated measures experiment design. Factors found to significantly influence the braking task included vehicle dynamics variables like initial speed and maximum deceleration, phone condition, and driver-specific variables such as licence type, crash involvement history, and self-reported experience of using a mobile phone whilst driving. Distracted drivers on average appear to reduce the speed of their vehicle faster and more abruptly than non-distracted drivers, exhibiting excess braking comparatively and revealing perhaps risk compensation. The braking appears to be more aggressive for distracted drivers with provisional licenses compared to drivers with open licenses. Abrupt or excessive braking by distracted drivers might pose significant safety concerns to following vehicles in a traffic stream.

Functional neuroanatomy of auditory mismatch processing : an event-related fMRI study of duration-deviant oddballs

This study was designed to identify the neural networks underlying automatic auditory deviance detection in 10 healthy subjects using functional magnetic resonance imaging. We measured blood oxygenation level-dependent contrasts derived from the comparison of blocks of stimuli presented as a series of standard tones (50 ms duration) alone versus blocks that contained rare duration-deviant tones (100 ms) that were interspersed among a series of frequent standard tones while subjects were watching a silent movie. Possible effects of scanner noise were assessed by a “no tone” condition. In line with previous positron emission tomography and EEG source modeling studies, we found temporal lobe and prefrontal cortical activation that was associated with auditory duration mismatch processing. Data were also analyzed employing an event-related hemodynamic response model, which confirmed activation in response to duration-deviant tones bilaterally in the superior temporal gyrus and prefrontally in the right inferior and middle frontal gyri. In line with previous electrophysiological reports, mismatch activation of these brain regions was significantly correlated with age. These findings suggest a close relationship of the event-related hemodynamic response pattern with the corresponding electrophysiological activity underlying the event-related “mismatch negativity” potential, a putative measure of auditory sensory memory.

Motorway crash duration and its determinants: Do durations vary across motorways?

Traffic congestion has been a growing issue in many metropolitan areas during recent years, which necessitates the identification of its key contributors and development of sustainable strategies to help decrease its adverse impacts on traffic networks. Road incidents generally and crashes specifically have been acknowledged as the cause of a large proportion of travel delays in urban areas and account for 25% to 60% of traffic congestion on motorways. Identifying the critical determinants of travel delays has been of significant importance to the incident management systems which constantly collect and store the incident duration data. This study investigates the individual and simultaneous differential effects of the relevant determinants on motorway crash duration probabilities. In particular, it applies parametric Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) hazard-based models to develop in-depth insights into how the crash-specific characteristic and the associated temporal and infrastructural determinants impact the duration. AFT models with both fixed and random parameters have been calibrated on one year of traffic crash records from two major Australian motorways in South East Queensland and the differential effects of determinants on crash survival functions have been studied on these two motorways individually. A comprehensive spectrum of commonly used parametric fixed parameter AFT models, including generalized gamma and generalized F families, have been compared to random parameter AFT structures in terms of goodness of fit to the duration data and as a result, the random parameter Weibull AFT model has been selected as the most appropriate model. Significant determinants of motorway crash duration included traffic diversion requirement, crash injury type, number and type of vehicles involved in a crash, day of week and time of day, towing support requirement and damage to the infrastructure. A major finding of this research is that the motorways under study are significantly different in terms of crash durations; such that motorway exhibits durations that are on average 19% shorter compared to the durations on motorway. The differential effects of explanatory variables on crash durations are also different on the two motorways. The detailed presented analysis confirms that, looking at the motorway network as a whole, neglecting the individual differences between roads, can lead to erroneous interpretations of duration and inefficient strategies for mitigating travel delays along a particular motorway.