PV-Wind Hybrid Systems for Swedish Locations

PV-Wind-Hybrid systems for stand-alone applications have the potential to be more cost efficient compared to PV-alone systems. The two energy sources can, to some extent, compensate each others minima. The combination of solar and wind should be especially favorable for locations at high latitudes such as Sweden with a very uneven distribution of solar radiation during the year. In this article PV-Wind-Hybrid systems have been studied for 11 locations in Sweden. These systems supply the household electricity for single family houses. The aim was to evaluate the system costs, the cost of energy generated by the PV-Wind-Hybrid systems, the effect of the load size and to what extent the combination of these two energy sources can reduce the costs compared to a PV-alone system. The study has been performed with the simulation tool HOMER developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) for techno-economical feasibility studies of hybrid systems. The results from HOMER show that the net present costs (NPC) for a hybrid system designed for an annual load of 6000 kWh with a capacity shortage of 10% will vary between $48,000 and $87,000. Sizing the system for a load of 1800 kWh/year will give a NPC of $17,000 for the best and $33,000 for the worst location. PV-Wind-Hybrid systems are for all locations more cost effective compared to PV-alone systems. Using a Hybrid system is reducing the NPC for Borlänge by 36% and for Lund by 64%. The cost per kWh electricity varies between $1.4 for the worst location and $0.9 for the best location if a PV-Wind-Hybrid system is used.

Electricity Supply Solutions for an Educational Center in Tanzania

The aim of this study was to investigate electricity supply solutions for an educationalcenter that is being built in Chonyonyo Tanzania. Off-grid power generation solutions andfurther optimization possibilities were studied for the case.The study was done for Engineers Without Borders in Sweden. Who are working withMavuno Project on the educational center. The school is set to start operating in year 2015with 40 girl students in the beginning. The educational center will help to improve genderequality by offering high quality education in a safe environment for girls in rural area.It is important for the system to be economically and environmentally sustainable. Thearea has great potential for photovoltaic power generation. Thus PV was considered as theprimary power generation and a diesel generator as a reliable backup. The system sizeoptimization was done with HOMER. For the simulations HOMER required componentdata, weather data and load data. Common components were chose with standardproperties, the loads were based on load estimations from year 2011 and the weather datawas acquired from NASA database. The system size optimization result for this base casewas a system with 26 kW PW; 5.5 kW diesel generator, 15 kW converter and 112 T-105batteries. The initial cost of the system was 55 875 €, the total net present cost 92 121 €and the levelized cost of electricity 0.264 €/kWh.In addition three optimization possibilities were studied. First it was studied how thesystem should be designed and how it would affect the system size to have night loads(security lights) use DC and could the system then be extended in blocks. As a result it wasfound out that the system size could be decreased as the inverter losses would be avoided.Also the system extension in blocks was found to be possible. The second study was aboutinverter stacking where multiple inverters can work as one unit. This type of connectionallows only the required number of inverters to run while shutting down the excess ones.This would allow the converter-unit to run with higher efficiency and lower powerconsumption could be achieved. In future with higher loads the system could be easilyextendable by connecting more inverters either in parallel or series depending on what isneeded. Multiple inverters would also offer higher reliability than using one centralizedinverter. The third study examined how the choice of location for a centralized powergeneration affects the cable sizing for the system. As a result it was found that centralizedpower generation should be located close to high loads in order to avoid long runs of thickcables. Future loads should also be considered when choosing the location. For theeducational center the potential locations for centralized power generation were found outto be close to the school buildings and close to the dormitories.

Caracterização química, física e térmica de pellets de madeira produzidos no Brasil

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Modeling the spatial dynamics of economic models

The advances that have been characterizing spatial econometrics in recent years are mostly theoretical and have not found an extensive empirical application yet. In this work we aim at supplying a review of the main tools of spatial econometrics and to show an empirical application for one of the most recently introduced estimators. Despite the numerous alternatives that the econometric theory provides for the treatment of spatial (and spatiotemporal) data, empirical analyses are still limited by the lack of availability of the correspondent routines in statistical and econometric software. Spatiotemporal modeling represents one of the most recent developments in spatial econometric theory and the finite sample properties of the estimators that have been proposed are currently being tested in the literature. We provide a comparison between some estimators (a quasi-maximum likelihood, QML, estimator and some GMM-type estimators) for a fixed effects dynamic panel data model under certain conditions, by means of a Monte Carlo simulation analysis. We focus on different settings, which are characterized either by fully stable or quasi-unit root series. We also investigate the extent of the bias that is caused by a non-spatial estimation of a model when the data are characterized by different degrees of spatial dependence. Finally, we provide an empirical application of a QML estimator for a time-space dynamic model which includes a temporal, a spatial and a spatiotemporal lag of the dependent variable. This is done by choosing a relevant and prolific field of analysis, in which spatial econometrics has only found limited space so far, in order to explore the value-added of considering the spatial dimension of the data. In particular, we study the determinants of cropland value in Midwestern U.S.A. in the years 1971-2009, by taking the present value model (PVM) as the theoretical framework of analysis.

Financial analysis of various strategies for the control of Neospora caninum in dairy cattle in Switzerland

The present study was conducted to estimate the direct losses due to Neospora caninum in Swiss dairy cattle and to assess the costs and benefits of different potential control strategies. A Monte Carlo simulation spreadsheet module was developed to estimate the direct costs caused by N. caninum, with and without control strategies, and to estimate the costs of these control strategies in a financial analysis. The control strategies considered were "testing and culling of seropositive female cattle", "discontinued breeding with offspring from seropositive cows", "chemotherapeutical treatment of female offspring" and "vaccination of all female cattle". Each parameter in the module that was considered to be uncertain, was described using probability distributions. The simulations were run with 20,000 iterations over a time period of 25 years. The median annual losses due to N. caninum in the Swiss dairy cow population were estimated to be euro 9.7 million euros. All control strategies that required yearly serological testing of all cattle in the population produced high costs and thus were not financially profitable. Among the other control strategies, two showed benefit-cost ratios (BCR) >1 and positive net present values (NPV): "Discontinued breeding with offspring from seropositive cows" (BCR=1.29, NPV=25 million euros ) and "chemotherapeutical treatment of all female offspring" (BCR=2.95, NPV=59 million euros). In economic terms, the best control strategy currently available would therefore be "discontinued breeding with offspring from seropositive cows".

Evaluation of Wet Distillers Grains in Finishing Diets for Yearling Steers

A feeding trial was conducted with 940-lb yearling steers fed 113 days to determine the feeding value of distillers grains relative to corn grain. Replacing corn and urea with wet distillers grains for 20% of the diet dry matter tended to increase gain with no increase in feed consumption, resulting in improved feed conversion. Replacing 40% of diet dry matter with wet distillers grains decreased feed intake without affecting gains, and improved feed efficiency. The overall average estimated net energy value of wet distillers grains was 1.20 Mcal NEg per pound dry matter. This experiment confirmed the observations in previous cattle feeding experiments, that for finishing cattle wet distillers grains have a high energy value compared with cracked corn grain. Another objective of the study was to determine if cattle being fed wet distillers grains could be suddenly changed to a different diet if the supply of wet feed was suddenly disrupted. It was found that if intake is managed during the change, that distillers grains portion of the diet can be suddenly changed from wet to dry and then changed back to wet after a week, without sacrificing performance of the cattle.

Teaching Time Preference and Human Impatience: The Billionaire Game

The Billionaire Game involves students in discussing time preference, or what Fisher (1930) calls human impatience. The game can facilitate the introduction of the material on present value and discounting or discussions on such issues as investment in human capital and the intertemporal consumption-saving decision. Thus, the game can facilitate discussions in a number of economics courses.

Aplicación de la teoría de opciones reales a la determinación del momento óptimo de cosecha forestal

Se propone el enfoque de opciones reales como herramienta económico-financiera para la toma de decisiones estratégicas en el sector forestal. En términos de instrumentos financieros, consideraremos en particular una opción exótica conocida como barrier option del tipo knock-in. Suponemos que la proyección del precio de venta promedio de los subproductos sigue un proceso estocástico del tipo Geométrico Browniano, mientras que la producción se determina mediante simulación de un turno forestal. La decisión de talar la masa forestal surge de comparar en cada periodo, el valor de flujo de fondos en cada nodo (FFij(t)) de una rejilla binomial con el valor esperado en el próximo año (X t+1 x e−rΔ t) ). En un ejemplo analizado el criterio tradicional del VAN indica que el mayor valor actual se produce en el instante t = 0 (año 10), mientras que el enfoque de opciones reales arroja que el máximo valor de ejercicio se da en el periodo t = 8 (año 18).

Zum Einfluss vorschulischer Kinderbetreuung auf den Bildungsweg und den erwarteten Erfolg am Arbeitsmarkt

In dem Beitrag wird der Frage nachgegangen, welchen Einfluss die Inanspruchnahme frühkindlicher Bildungs- und Betreuungsangebote auf den späteren Schulbesuch von Kindern hat und wie sich dies längerfristig auf die zu erwartenden Lebenseinkommen und damit einhergehend den langfristigen volkswirtschaftlichen Nutzen auswirkt. Untersucht werden Kinder in Deutschland der Jahrgänge 1990 bis 1995. Die Datengrundlage liefert das Sozio-oekonomische Panel (SOEP). Der Schwerpunkt der Analysen liegt auf der Bestimmung des Effekts des Krippenbesuchs auf die spätere Einstufung in die verschiedenen Schultypen in Abhängigkeit der sozialen Herkunft und des Migrationshintergrunds der Kinder. Ausgehend von diesen Schätzungen werden dann die zu erwartenden, über den Bildungsabschluss vermittelten Auswirkungen des Krippenbesuchs auf das spätere Lebenseinkommen bestimmt, um einen Eindruck der langfristigen volkswirtschaftlichen Folgen vorschulischer Kinderbetreuung zu erhalten. Der Beitrag zeigt, dass der Krippenbesuch die Wahrscheinlichkeit einer Einstufung ins Gymnasium nach Kontrolle relevanter Drittvariablen im Schnitt um rund 14 Prozentpunkte erhöht. Dieser Einfluss entspricht einem erwarteten Lebenseinkommenszuwachs von rund 27000 Euro. Wird dieser Ertrag auf den Zeitpunkt des Krippenbesuchs abdiskontiert und den Kosten eines durchschnittlichen Krippenbesuchs in der Höhe von rund 8000 Euro gegenübergestellt, so ergibt sich ein Kosten-Nutzen-Verhältnis von 1 zu 2.7. (DIPF/Orig.).

Evidence for a disaggregation of the universe.

Combining the kinematical definitions of the two dimensionless parameters, the deceleration q(x) and the Hubble t 0 H(x), we get a differential equation (where x=t/t 0 is the age of the universe relative to its present value t 0). First integration gives the function H(x). The present values of the Hubble parameter H(1) [approximately t 0 H(1)≈1], and the deceleration parameter [approximately q(1)≈−0.5], determine the function H(x). A second integration gives the cosmological scale factor a(x). Differentiation of a(x) gives the speed of expansion of the universe. The evolution of the universe that results from our approach is: an initial extremely fast exponential expansion (inflation), followed by an almost linear expansion (first decelerated, and later accelerated). For the future, at approximately t≈3t 0 there is a final exponential expansion, a second inflation that produces a disaggregation of the universe to infinity. We find the necessary and sufficient conditions for this disaggregation to occur. The precise value of the final age is given only with one parameter: the present value of the deceleration parameter [q(1)≈−0.5]. This emerging picture of the history of the universe represents an important challenge, an opportunity for the immediate research on the Universe. These conclusions have been elaborated without the use of any particular cosmological model of the universe

Aditivos (ionóforo e não ionóforo), processamento de grãos de milho e concentrações de fibra insolúvel em detergente neutro (FDN) de silagem de milho em dietas para bovinos em terminação

Foram conduzidos dois experimentos com o intuito de se avaliar o desempenho, características de carcaça e parâmetros ruminais de bovinos Nelore recebendo dietas contendo grãos de milho flint processados de diferentes formas em associação a diferentes aditivos e níveis de FDN de silagem de milho (FDNf). No Experimento 1, 239 tourinhos (PCI=350±26,79kg) foram alojados em 40 baias de acordo com o peso corporal inicial e receberam dietas contendo dois tipos de processamento dos grãos de milho (moagem fina e floculação) e diferentes aditivos (monensina sódica; 25 ppm e formulação A062 a base de virginiamicina; produto teste, não comercial, fornecido pela Ourofino Saúde Animal; nas dosagens de 17 e 25 ppm), totalizando 8 tratamentos. Os dados foram analisados pelo PROC MIXED do SAS. A floculação aumentou o peso final, o ganho de peso diário, a eficiência alimentar, o peso da carcaça quente e tendeu a aumentar o rendimento de carcaça em comparação a moagem fina. Houve tendência de interação entre processamento e fornecimento de aditivos para a ingestão de matéria seca e ganho de peso diário. A floculação reduziu o teor de amido fecal, aumentou a digestibilidade do amido no trato total, aumentou os valores de energia liquida para manutenção e ganho da dieta e o numero médio de papilas ruminais. Os aditivos aumentaram a altura, largura e área das papilas e reduziram a espessura de faixa de queratina em relação ao tratamento controle. Houve tendência das formulações a base de virginiamicina aumentarem o peso da carcaça quente dos animais em comparação com a monensina sódica, mas não em relação ao tratamento controle sem aditivo. A floculação foi mais efetiva para aumentar a digestiblidade do amido no trato total, o valor energético do milho e o desempenho dos bovinos enquanto que os aditivos não foram efetivos para aumentar o valor energético das dietas e a eficiência alimentar dos animais. No Experimento 2, 237 tourinhos (PCI=350±28,49kg) foram alojados em 32 baias de acordo com o peso corporal inicial e receberam dietas contendo dois tipos de processamento (moagem grosseira e floculação) e diferentes níveis de FDNf (4; 7; 10 e 13% MS), totalizando 8 tratamentos. Os dados foram analisados pelo PROC MIXED do SAS. A floculação tendeu a aumentar a eficiência alimentar, o peso da carcaça quente e a espessura de gordura subcutânea, reduziu o teor de amido fecal, aumentou a digestibilidade do amido no trato total como também aumentou os valores de energia liquida para manutenção e para ganho das dietas. Os níveis de FDNf afetaram ingestão de matéria seca e o peso da carcaça quente independente do método de processamento. Houve tendência de aumento linear no GPD e tendência de redução quadrática na eficiência alimentar com inclusão crescente de FDNf. A inclusão de silagem de milho em dietas com alto teor de milho flint reduziu a eficiência alimentar dos animais, mas aumentou o peso da carcaça quente. A floculação aumentou o valor energético do cereal para tourinhos Nelore em dietas com alto teor de energia.

(Table 1) Boron concentration and d11B ratios of ODP Hole 130-803D

The pH of the surface ocean is a sensitive function of its alkalinity and total inorganic carbon concentration, properties which also control the partial pressure of atmospheric carbon dioxide (Broecker and Peng, 1982). Thus, an accurate proxy for past ocean pH could yield information about variations in atmospheric CO2. Recently, it has been suggested that the boron isotopic composition of foraminiferal tests depends on the pH of sea water as well as its isotopic composition (Vengosh et al., 1991, doi:10.1016/0016-7037(91)90139-V; Hemming and Hanson, 1992, doi:10.1016/0016-7037(92)90151-8). Here we present boron isotope and elemental data for sedimentary pore fluids and isotope data for bulk foraminiferal samples from a deep-sea sediment core. The composition of the pore waters implies that sea water boron concentrations and isotopic composition have been constant during the past 21 Myr, allowing us to reconstruct past ocean pH directly from the foraminiferal isotope data. We find that 21 Myr ago, surface ocean pH was only 7.4 ±0.2, but it then increased to 8.2 ±0.2 (roughly the present value) about 7.5 Myr ago. This is consistent with suggestions (Popp et al., 1989; Cerling, 1991; Arthur et al., 1991) that atmospheric CO2 concentrations may have been much higher 21 Myr ago than today.

Accommodating energy price volatility in life cycle cost analysis of asphalt pavements

Energy price is related to more than half of the total life cycle cost of asphalt pavements. Furthermore, the fluctuation related to price of energy has been much higher than the general inflation and interest rate. This makes the energy price inflation an important variable that should be addressed when performing life cycle cost (LCC) studies re- garding asphalt pavements. The present value of future costs is highly sensitive to the selected discount rate. Therefore, the choice of the discount rate is the most critical element in LCC analysis during the life time of a project. The objective of the paper is to present a discount rate for asphalt pavement projects as a function of interest rate, general inflation and energy price inflation. The discount rate is defined based on the portion of the energy related costs during the life time of the pavement. Consequently, it can reflect the financial risks related to the energy price in asphalt pavement projects. It is suggested that a discount rate sensitivity analysis for asphalt pavements in Sweden should range between –20 and 30%.

A study of stock market fluctuations and their relation to business conditions

Most research on stock prices is based on the present value model or the more general consumption-based model. When applied to real economic data, both of them are found unable to account for both the stock price level and its volatility. Three essays here attempt to both build a more realistic model, and to check whether there is still room for bubbles in explaining fluctuations in stock prices. In the second chapter, several innovations are simultaneously incorporated into the traditional present value model in order to produce more accurate model-based fundamental prices. These innovations comprise replacing with broad dividends the more narrow traditional dividends that are more commonly used, a nonlinear artificial neural network (ANN) forecasting procedure for these broad dividends instead of the more common linear forecasting models for narrow traditional dividends, and a stochastic discount rate in place of the constant discount rate. Empirical results show that the model described above predicts fundamental prices better, compared with alternative models using linear forecasting process, narrow dividends, or a constant discount factor. Nonetheless, actual prices are still largely detached from fundamental prices. The bubblelike deviations are found to coincide with business cycles. The third chapter examines possible cointegration of stock prices with fundamentals and non-fundamentals. The output gap is introduced to form the nonfundamental part of stock prices. I use a trivariate Vector Autoregression (TVAR) model and a single equation model to run cointegration tests between these three variables. Neither of the cointegration tests shows strong evidence of explosive behavior in the DJIA and S&P 500 data. Then, I applied a sup augmented Dickey-Fuller test to check for the existence of periodically collapsing bubbles in stock prices. Such bubbles are found in S&P data during the late 1990s. Employing econometric tests from the third chapter, I continue in the fourth chapter to examine whether bubbles exist in stock prices of conventional economic sectors on the New York Stock Exchange. The ‘old economy’ as a whole is not found to have bubbles. But, periodically collapsing bubbles are found in Material and Telecommunication Services sectors, and the Real Estate industry group.

The Foodservice Industry's Social Responsibility Regarding the Obesity Epidemic, Part II: Incorporating Strategic Corporate Social Responsibility into Foodservice Operations

Just as all types of business firms are now expected to go beyond their profit-oriented activities in boosting the well-being of the community, so, too, is corporate social responsibility (CSR) expected from foodservice firms. The significance of the obesity epidemic, combined with the foodservice industry's role in the development of this epidemic, suggests that the industry has an ethical responsibility to implement CSR activities that will help reduce obesity, particularly among children. CSR should be seen as an efficient management strategy through which a firm voluntarily integrates social and environmental concerns into its business operations and its interactions with stakeholders. Although costs are associated with CSR initiatives, benefits accrue to the firm. Decisions regarding alternative CSR activities should be based on a cost-benefit analysis and calculation of the present value of the revenue stream that can be identified as resulting from the specific CSR activities. CSR initiatives should be viewed as long-term investments that will enhance the firms’ value. Key areas for foodservice firms' CSR activities include marketing practices, particularly practices impacting advertising to children and marketing that will enhance the firms’ visibility; portion-size modification; new-product development; and consistent nutrition labeling on menus.