Standard genotyping overestimates transmission of Mycobacterium tuberculosis among immigrants in a low incidence country.

Immigrants from high tuberculosis (TB) incidence regions are a risk group for TB in low-incidence countries such as Switzerland. In a previous analysis of a nationwide collection of 520 Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates from 2000-2008, we identified 35 clusters comprising 90 patients based on standard genotyping (24-loci MIRU-VNTR and spoligotyping). Here, we used whole genome sequencing (WGS) to revisit these transmission clusters. Genome-based transmission clusters were defined as isolate pairs separated by ≤12 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). WGS confirmed 17/35 (49%) MIRU-VNTR clusters; the other 18 clusters contained pairs separated by >12 SNPs. Most transmission clusters (3/4) of Swiss-born patients were confirmed by WGS, as opposed to 25% (4/16) of clusters involving only foreign-born patients. The overall clustering proportion using standard genotyping was 17% (90 patients, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 14-21%), but only 8% (43 patients, 95% CI: 6-11%) using WGS. The clustering proportion was 17% (67/401, 95% CI: 13-21%) using standard genotyping and 7% (26/401, 95% CI: 4-9%) using WGS among foreign-born patients, and 19% (23/119, 95% CI: 13-28%) and 14% (17/119, 95% CI: 9-22%), respectively, among Swiss-born patients. Using weighted logistic regression, we found weak evidence for an association between birth origin and transmission (aOR 2.2, 95% CI: 0.9-5.5, comparing Swiss-born patients to others). In conclusion, standard genotyping overestimated recent TB transmission in Switzerland when compared to WGS, particularly among immigrants from high TB incidence regions, where genetically closely related strains often predominate. We recommend the use of WGS to identify transmission clusters in low TB incidence settings.

Trade Costs, Quality, and The Skill Premium

We develop a monopolistic competition model with nonhomothetic factor input bundles where increasing quality requires increasing use of skilled workers. As a result more skill abundant countries export higher quality, higher priced goods. Using a multicountry dataset we test and confirm the findings in Schott (2004) of a positive effect of skill abundance on unit values identified with US data. We extend the core model with per unit trade costs leading to the Washington-apples effect that goods shipped over larger distance are of higher quality. The combination of high-quality goods being relatively skill intensive with the Washington-apples effect implies that countries at a larger distance from their trading partners display a higher skill premium. Simulating our model we find that a doubling of distance of a country relative to all its trading partners raises the skill premium in a country by about 2.3 percent.

Environmental and behavioral risk factors for moderate or severe rotavirus diarrhea in children less than 24 months

On a global basis rotaviruses are the most important agents involved in childhood diarrhea. In developing countries they account for 6% of all diarrheas and 20% of all diarrhea related deaths of children under 5 years of age, with over 1 billion episodes and over 4 million deaths annually. Given the disease burden, there is a need for better understanding the risk factors involved in rotavirus disease, to identify areas of intervention. In order to provide this information, two areas were developed: a review of the literature, examining the causal evidence for rotavirus diarrhea and a case comparison study. The case comparison study analyzed two areas: identifying climate factors and, identifying environmental and behavioral risk factors. The literature review showed that few analytical studies have identified specific risk factors such as home environment, and a winter seasonal trend for temperate areas, but in key areas evidence is contradictory. The case comparison study for climate factors demonstrated that seasonality occurs in a tropical country like Venezuela and that a complex interplay between weather conditions contribute to the seasonal pattern. A positive association between rain fall (OR 4.1); dew point (OR 2.3) and temperature differential during the day (OR 1.4) and, an inverse association with temperature (OR 0.5) and relative humidity (OR 0.8) was found. This information is useful in understanding the seasonal pattern of rotavirus and for planning health care needs. The second analysis demonstrated that environmental variables such as crowding (OR 14.3), contact with someone with an infectious disease (OR 4.9) and animal ownership (OR 2.3) were important. Restricting the analysis to animal owners demonstrated that living In a rural settling (OR 13.8), defecating in inappropriate places (OR 7.2), crowding(4.2) and indoor animals (4.0) are of importance. Behavioral variables identified were: lack of breast feeding (OR 4.0) and visiting when someone was sick (OR 3.4). Biological and demographic variables of importance were: age, with a dose response relationship; undernurishment (OR 11.3) and household per capita monthly income less than US $ 16.30 (OR 8.5). Using a diarrhea compeer group we found that, although some of the previous variables were of importance, no major differences were found. These findings are important in identifying paths for prevention and further research. ^

Lessons for emerging state Children's Health Insurance Premium Assistance programs: Case study of the Massachusetts Masshealth Family Assistance Program (MHFAP)

Providing health insurance coverage for vulnerable populations such as low-income high-risk children with limited access to health care is a challenge for many states. Over the past decade, higher private insurance premiums and unpredictable labor markets have increased the number of uninsured and underinsured children nationwide. Due to recent economic downfalls, many states such as Texas, have expressed interest in using premium assistance programs to increase enrollment of low income children and families in private coverage through employer sponsored health insurance. Massachusetts has been especially successful in reducing the number of uninsured children through the implementation of MassHealth Family Assistance Program (MHFAP), an employer based premium assistance program. The purpose of this study is to identify key implementation factors of a fully established premium assistance program which may provide lessons and facilitate implementation of emerging premium assistance programs. ^ The case study of the fully established MassHealth Family Assistance Program (MHFAP) has illustrated the ability of states to expand their Medicaid and SCHIP programs in order to provide affordable health coverage to uninsured and underinsured low income children and their families. As demonstrated by MHFAP, the success of a premium assistance program depends on four key factors: (1) determination of participant and employer eligibility; (2) determination of employer benefits meeting benchmark equivalency (Medicaid or State Children's Health Insurance Program); (3) the use of appropriate marketing and outreach strategies; and (4) establishment of adequate monitoring and reporting techniques. Successful implementation strategies, revealed by the case study of the Massachusetts MassHealth Family Assistance Program, may be used by emerging premium assistance programs, such as Texas Children's Health Insurance Premium Assistance Program (CHIP-PA) toward establishment of an effective, efficient, and equitable employer sponsored health program.^

Case-control study of factors associated with virologic failure in HIV-infected children on HAART in Botswana, a developing African country

According to the United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS, 2008), in 2007 about 67 per cent of all HIV-infected patients in the world were in Sub-Saharan Africa, with 35% of new infections and 38% of the AIDS deaths occurring in Southern Africa. Globally, the number of children younger than 15 years of age infected with HIV increased from 1.6 million in 2001 to 2.0 million in 2007 and almost 90% of these were in Sub-Saharan Africa. (UNAIDS, 2008).^ Both clinical and laboratory monitoring of children on Highly Active Anti-Retroviral Therapy (HAART) are important and necessary to optimize outcomes. Laboratory monitoring of HIV viral load and genotype resistance testing, which are important in patient follow-up to optimize treatment success, are both generally expensive and beyond the healthcare budgets of most developing countries. This is especially true for the impoverished Sub-Saharan African nations. It is therefore important to identify those factors that are associated with virologic failure in HIV-infected Sub-Saharan African children. This will inform practitioners in these countries so that they can predict which patients are more likely to develop virologic failure and therefore target the limited laboratory monitoring budgets towards these at-risk patients. The objective of this study was to examine those factors that are associated with virologic failure in HIV-infected children taking Highly Active Anti-retroviral Therapy in Botswana, a developing Sub-Saharan African country. We examined these factors in a Case-Control study using medical records of HIV-infected children and adolescents on HAART at the Botswana-Baylor Children's Clinical Center of Excellence (BBCCCOE) in Gaborone, Botswana. Univariate and Multivariate Regression Analyses were performed to identify predictors of virologic failure in these children.^ The study population comprised of 197 cases (those with virologic failure) and 544 controls (those with virologic success) with ages ranging from 3 months to 16 years at baseline. Poor adherence (pill count <95% on at least 3 consecutive occasions) was the strongest independent predictor of virologic failure (adjusted OR = 269.97, 95% CI = 104.13 to 699.92; P < 0.001). Other independent predictors of virologic failure identified were: First Line NNRTI with Nevirapine (OR = 2.99, 95% CI = 1.19 to7.54; P = 0.020), Baseline HIV-1 Viral Load >750,000/ml (OR = 257, 95% CI = 1.47 to 8.63; P = 0.005), Positive History of PMTCT (OR = 11.65, 95% CI = 3.04-44.57; P < 0.001), Multiple Care-givers (>=3) (OR = 2.56, 95% CI = 1.06 to 6.19; P = 0.036) and Residence in a Village (OR = 2.85, 95% CI = 1.36 to 5.97; P = 0.005).^ The results of this study may help to improve virologic outcomes and reduce the costs of caring for HIV-infected children in resource-limited settings. ^ Keywords: Virologic Failure, Highly Active Anti-Retroviral Therapy, Sub-Saharan Africa, Children, Adherence.^

Lifetime prevalence and risk factors for cancer in a Mexican American population with severe health disparities: The Cameron County Hispanic Cohort

Retrospective data from the Cameron Country Hispanic Cohort (1) were analyzed to assess the burden of cancer in the Mexican American population living in Brownsville TX. Data provided by the study participants for themselves and their parents and other extended relatives on cancer and related risk factors were used to determine both the prevalence of cancer and these risk factors as well as any associations between them. Lifetime incidence of cancer among the study participants was of 2.8%. Lifetime incidence of cancer among the parents of the study population was calculated for cancer in general and for specific cancer sites to determine the ranking of occurrence of each type of cancer. Some cancer types in this population were ranked higher than what would be expected when compared with national data from Hispanics in the U.S, these were: Liver cancer (3rd vs. 7th nationally in males and 6th vs. 13th nationally in females), stomach cancer (4th vs. 8th nationally in males and 5th vs. 11th nationally in females) and ovarian cancer (3rd vs. 8th nationally in females). A significant association with cancer was found for being born in the United States compared to being born elsewhere (O.R. 1.62, 95% C.I. 1.01–2.60) among study participants and the same association was also found between birth of parents in the United States regardless of gender for cancers in general (O.R. 1.38 95% C.I. 1.12–1.70), stomach cancer (O.R. 1.92 95% C.I. 1.01–3.67) and colorectal cancer (O.R. 2.93 95% C.I. 1.28–6.72). Having been born in the United States and having a family history of cancer was also found to be significantly associated with other risk factors for cancer such as obesity, diabetes and insulin resistance, both among the parents and the participant population, suggesting these interactions are complex. These high rates of cancer and particular prominence of less usual cancer such as liver and ovary in health disparities warrant evaluation of early detection strategies.^

The Relationship of Provincial Economic Level and Child Injury Mortality in Thailand: A Cross-Sectional Analysis in a Middle Income Country

The objective of this cross-sectional study was to examine the relationship of provincial economic development indices with incidences of child injury mortality in Thailand from 1999 - 2001. All injury deaths among children age 1-14 years were included. The independent variables included gross provincial product per capita (GPP/c), poverty and inequality indices, material and social deprivation indices, population in rural/ urban areas, and migration. Due to multicollinearity of such variables, the 76 provinces were categorized by GPP/c quartile, and means of overall injury, drowning, and transport-related mortality rates were compared among quartile groups. Spearman’s rho correlation between GPP/c and injury mortality rates was also performed. Finally, factor analysis was employed to create a set of factors to be treated as uncorrelated variables and stepwise multiple regression was carried out for the effects of the factors on injury mortality rates. A significant direct relationship was observed between GPP/c and overall injury mortality among children age 1-4 years, and 10-14 year-olds of both genders. Drowning was the main cause of this relationship among children age 1-4 years, and transport-related injury was the principle cause among children age 10-14 years. Conversely, provinces with lower GPP/c experienced higher injury mortality rates among school-age children 5-9 years old for both genders, mostly due to drowning. Factor analysis, and multiple regression results confirmed the relationships between economic development and injury mortality rates. These findings revealed that economic development had an adverse impact on injury-related mortality among children 1 to 4 and 10 to14 in Thailand.

Editorial: Take Me Home, Down Country Roads

Those of us committed to the tenets of Family Preservation must advocate for increased awareness and attention to the needs of children and their families in rural America. "Country roads" and the rural spaces they traverse have been eulogized by many poets and song writers as ideal places to live. But they may not be ideal for everyone. The past few months, it has become all too evident that rural America is not immune to acts of extreme violence by troubled children. Even though almost 1/3 of American youth live in rural areas, they have been "virtually ignored by mental health service planners and providers"(Cutrona, Halvorson, & Russell, 1996, p. 217). Mental health risk factors such as poverty, parental alcohol abuse, and family instability are on the rise in rural areas, and there has been an increase in suicide attempts, family violence, depression, and alcohol abuse (Cutrona, Halvorson, & Russell, 1996; Petti & Leviton, 1986; National Mental Health Association, 1988). Native Americans are especially concerned about the increases in child abuse and neglect, depression, substance abuse, and suicide in their communities.

The development of poultry farms risk assessment tool for avian influenza in Imo State, Nigeria

Background: Nigeria was one of the 13 countries where avian influenza outbreak in poultry farms was reported during the 2006 avian influenza pandemic threat and was also the first country in Africa to report the presence of H5N1influenza among its poultry population. There are multiple hypotheses on how the avian influenza outbreak of 2006 was introduced to Nigeria, but the consensus is that once introduced, poultry farms and their workers were responsible for 70% of the spread of avian influenza virus to other poultry farms and the population. ^ The spread of avian influenza has been attributed to lack of compliance by poultry farms and their workers with poultry farm biosecurity measures. When poultry farms fail to adhere to biosecurity measures and there is an outbreak of infectious diseases like in 2006, epidemiological investigations usually assess poultry farm biosecurity—often with the aid of a questionnaire. Despite the importance of questionnaires in determining farm compliance with biosecurity measures, there have been few efforts to determine the validity of questionnaires designed to assess poultry farms risk factors. Hence, this study developed and validated a tool (questionnaire) that can be used for poultry farm risk stratification in Imo State, Nigeria. ^ Methods: Risk domains were generated using literature and recommendations from agricultural organizations and the Nigeria government for poultry farms. The risk domains were then used to develop a questionnaire. Both the risk domain and questionnaire were verified and modified by a group of five experts with a research interest in Nigeria's poultry industry and/or avian influenza prevention. Once a consensus was reached by the experts, the questionnaire was distributed to 30 selected poultry farms in Imo State, Nigeria that participated in this study. Survey responses were received for all the 30 poultry farms that were selected. The same poultry farms were visited one week after they completed the questionnaires for on-site observation. Agreement among survey and observation results were analyzed using a kappa test and rated as poor, fair, moderate, substantial, or nearly perfect; and internal consistency of the survey was also computed. ^ Result: Out of the 43 items on the questionnaire, 32 items were validated by this study. The agreement between the survey result and onsite observation was analyzed using kappa test and ranged from poor to nearly perfect. Most poultry farms had their best agreements in the contact section of the survey. The least agreement was noted in the farm management section of the survey. Thirty-two questions on the survey had a coefficient alpha > 0.70, which is a robust internal consistency for the survey. ^ Conclusion: This study developed 14 risk domains for poultry farms in Nigeria and validated 32 items from the original questionnaire that contained 43 items. The validated items can be used to determine the risk of introduction and spread of avian influenza virus in poultry farms in Imo State, Nigeria. After further validations in other states, regions and poultry farm sectors in Nigeria; this risk assessment tool can then be used to determine the risk profile of poultry farms across Nigeria.^

Improving care of women at risk of unsafe abortion: implementing a risk-reduction model at the Uruguayan-Brazilian border

OBJECTIVE: To describe the initial stages of the implementation of a risk-reduction model designed by Iniciativas Sanitarias to shield women from unsafe abortion in a traditional community on the Uruguay-Brazil border. METHODS: This mixed-design study was conducted first between 22 and 26 March 2010, and then between 2 and 7 May 2011, in Rivera, Uruguay, to gather information from women seen at health centers, healthcare providers, and local policy makers before the project started and midway through the project. RESULTS: At baseline most women and providers considered abortion justifiable only on narrow grounds, yet favored the implementation of a risk-reduction model that would include preabortion as well as postabortion counseling, the former providing information on different abortion methods and their risks. By the midterm assessment, the counseling service had assisted 87 women with unwanted pregnancies. Of the 52 who came for a postabortion visit, 50 had self-administered misoprostol, with no complications. Women were highly satisfied with the counseling. At baseline, misoprostol seemed to be available from both pharmacists and informal sellers. At midterm, it was still available from informal vendors but pharmacists said they did not provide misoprostol. The risk-reduction initiative heightened public attention to the abortion issue but the controversy it generated did not seriously impede its implementation. CONCLUSION: It is feasible to implement the proposed risk-reduction model in a traditional community such as Rivera, not only in Uruguay but in any country irrespective of its abortion laws.

Impact attribution models to evaluate drought effects: economic impacts, risk analyses and management strategies in Spain and Chile

La sequía es un fenómeno natural que se origina por el descenso de las precipitaciones con respecto a una media, y que resulta en la disponibilidad insuficiente de agua para alguna actividad. La creciente presión que se ha venido ejerciendo sobre los recursos hídricos ha hecho que los impactos de la sequía se hayan visto agravados a la vez que ha desencadenado situaciones de escasez de agua en muchas partes del planeta. Los países con clima mediterráneo son especialmente vulnerables a las sequías, y, su crecimiento económico dependiente del agua da lugar a impactos importantes. Para reducir los impactos de la sequía es necesaria una reducción de la vulnerabilidad a las sequías que viene dada por una gestión más eficiente y por una mejor preparación. Para ello es muy importante disponer de información acerca de los impactos y el alcance de este fenómeno natural. Esta investigación trata de abarcar el tema de los impactos de las sequías, de manera que plantea todos los tipos de impactos que pueden darse y además compara sus efectos en dos países (España y Chile). Para ello se proponen modelos de atribución de impactos que sean capaces de medir las pérdidas económicas causadas por la falta de agua. Los modelos propuestos tienen una base econométrica en la que se incluyen variables clave a la hora de evaluar los impactos como es una variable relacionada con la disponibilidad de agua, y otras de otra naturaleza para distinguir los efectos causados por otras fuentes de variación. Estos modelos se adaptan según la fase del estudio en la que nos encontremos. En primer lugar se miden los impactos directos sobre el regadío y se introduce en el modelo un factor de aleatoriedad para evaluar el riesgo económico de sequía. Esto se hace a dos niveles geográficos (provincial y de Unidad de Demanda Agraria) y además en el último se introduce no solo el riesgo de oferta sino también el riesgo de demanda de agua. La introducción de la perspectiva de riesgo en el modelo da lugar a una herramienta de gestión del riesgo económico que puede ser utilizada para estrategias de planificación. Más adelante una extensión del modelo econométrico se desarrolla para medir los impactos en el sector agrario (impactos directos sobre el regadío y el secano e impactos indirectos sobre la Agro Industria) para ello se adapta el modelo y se calculan elasticidades concatenadas entre la falta de agua y los impactos secundarios. Por último se plantea un modelo econométrico para el caso de estudio en Chile y se evalúa el impacto de las sequías debidas al fenómeno de La Niña. iv Los resultados en general muestran el valor que brinda el conocimiento más preciso acerca de los impactos, ya que en muchas ocasiones se tiende a sobreestimar los daños realmente producidos por la falta de agua. Los impactos indirectos de la sequía confirman su alcance a la vez que son amortiguados a medida que nos acercamos al ámbito macroeconómico. En el caso de Chile, su diferente gestión muestra el papel que juegan el fenómeno de El Niño y La Niña sobre los precios de los principales cultivos del país y sobre el crecimiento del sector. Para reducir las pérdidas y su alcance se deben plantear más medidas de mitigación que centren su esfuerzo en una gestión eficiente del recurso. Además la prevención debe jugar un papel muy importante para reducir los riesgos que pueden sufrirse ante situaciones de escasez. ABSTRACT Drought is a natural phenomenon that originates by the decrease in rainfall in comparison to the average, and that results in water shortages for some activities. The increasing pressure on water resources has augmented the impact of droughts just as water scarcity has become an additional problem in many parts of the planet. Countries with Mediterranean climate are especially vulnerable to drought, and its waterdependent economic growth leads to significant impacts. To reduce the negative impacts it is necessary to deal with drought vulnerability, and to achieve this objective a more efficient management is needed. The availability of information about the impacts and the scope of droughts become highly important. This research attempts to encompass the issue of drought impacts, and therefore it characterizes all impact types that may occur and also compares its effects in two different countries (Spain and Chile). Impact attribution models are proposed in order to measure the economic losses caused by the lack of water. The proposed models are based on econometric approaches and they include key variables for measuring the impacts. Variables related to water availability, crop prices or time trends are included to be able to distinguish the effects caused by any of the possible sources. These models are adapted for each of the parts of the study. First, the direct impacts on irrigation are measured and a source of variability is introduced into the model to assess the economic risk of drought. This is performed at two geographic levels provincial and Agricultural Demand Unit. In the latter, not only the supply risk is considered but also the water demand risk side. The introduction of the risk perspective into the model results in a risk management tool that can be used for planning strategies. Then an extension of the econometric model is developed to measure the impacts on the agricultural sector (direct impacts on irrigated and rainfed productions and indirect impacts on the Agri-food Industry). For this aim the model is adapted and concatenated elasticities between the lack of water and the impacts are estimated. Finally an econometric model is proposed for the Chilean case study to evaluate the impact of droughts, especially caused by El Niño Southern Oscillation. The overall results show the value of knowing better about the precise impacts that often tend to be overestimated. The models allow for measuring accurate impacts due to the lack of water. Indirect impacts of drought confirm their scope while they confirm also its dilution as we approach the macroeconomic variables. In the case of Chile, different management strategies of the country show the role of ENSO phenomena on main crop prices and on economic trends. More mitigation measures focused on efficient resource management are necessary to reduce drought losses. Besides prevention must play an important role to reduce the risks that may be suffered due to shortages.

Dealing with traffic risk in Latin American toll roads

Análisis de los sistemas de mitigación del riesgo de tráfico en autopistas de peaje en diferentes países de Latinoamérica. This paper presents a cross-country analysis of traffic risk allocation in road concessions of Latin America. It shows that some countries such as Chile, Colombia, and Peru have been greatly concerned with mitigating traffic risk, either by putting into practice public guarantees, implementing flexible term concessions, or through availability payment concessions; whereas other countries such as Mexico and Brazil have assigned traffic risk to the private concessionaire by using fixed-term concession contracts without any traffic guarantees. Based on an analysis of data from 1990 to 2010, the paper finds that shifting traffic risk from the concessionaire to the government or users was not confined to the riskiest projects, as one might expect. The analysis also suggests that the implementation of traffic risk mitigation mechanisms in Latin American toll roads has not been very successful in reducing renegotiation rates or in increasing the number of bidders in the tenders

A first approach to earthquake damage estimation in Haiti: advices to minimize the seismic risk

This study is in the frame of the cooperative line that several Spanish Universities and other foreign partners started with the Haitian government in 2010. According to our studies (Benito et al. in An evaluation of seismic hazard in La Hispaniola, after the 2010 Haiti earthquake, 33rd General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission, Moscow, Russia, 2012) and recent scientific literature, the earthquake hazard in Haiti remains high (Calais et al. in Nat Geosci 3:794–799, 2010). In view of this, we wonder whether the country is currently ready to face another earthquake. In this sense, we estimated several damage scenarios in Port-au-Prince and Cap-Haitien associated to realistic possible major earthquakes. Our findings show that almost 50 % of the building stock of both cities would result uninhabitable due to structural damage. Around 80 % of the buildings in both cities have reinforced concrete structure with concrete block infill; however, the presence of masonry buildings becomes significant (between 25 and 45 % of the reinforced concrete buildings) in rural areas and informal settlements on the outskirts, where the estimated damage is higher. The influence of the soil effect on the damage spatial distribution is evident in both cities. We have found that the percentage of uninhabitable buildings in soft soil areas may be double the percentage obtained in nearby districts located in hard soil. These results reveal that a new seismic catastrophe of similar or even greater consequences than the 2010 Haiti earthquake might happen if the earthquake resilience is not improved in the country. Nowadays, the design of prevention actions and mitigation policies is the best instrument the society has to face seismic risk. In this sense, the results of this research might contribute to define measures oriented to earthquake risk reduction in Haiti, which should be a real priority for national and international institutions.

Cross-country insurance mechanisms in currency unions. Bruegel Working Paper 2014/04, 27 March 2014

Countries in a monetary union can adjust to shocks either through internal or external mechanisms. We quantitatively assess for the European Union a number of relevant mechanisms suggested by Mundell’s optimal currency area theory, and compare them to the United States. For this purpose, we update a number of empirical analyses in the economic literature that identify (1) the size of asymmetries across countries and (2) the magnitude of insurance mechanisms relative to similar mechanisms and compare results for the European Monetary Union (EMU) with those obtained for the US. To study the level of synchronization between EMU countries we follow Alesina et al. (2002) and Barro and Tenreyro (2007). To measure the effect of an employment shock on employment levels, unemployment rates and participation rates we perform an analysis based on Blanchard and Katz (1992) and Decressin and Fatas (1995). We measure consumption smoothing through capital markets, fiscal transfers and savings, using the approach by Asdrubali et al. (1996) and Afonso and Furceri (2007). To analyze risk sharing through a common safety net for banks we perform a rudimentary simulation analysis. |

Noise trader risk and the welfare effects of privatization

Excessive volatility of asset prices like that generated in the 'noise trader' model of De Long et al. is one factor that plausibly might contribute to an explanation of the equity premium. We extend the De Long et al. model to allow for privatization of publicly-owned assets and assess the welfare effects of such privatization in the presence of excess volatility arising from noise traders' mistaken beliefs.