Sampling uncertainty properties of cloud fraction estimates from random transect observations

[1] Cloud cover is conventionally estimated from satellite images as the observed fraction of cloudy pixels. Active instruments such as radar and Lidar observe in narrow transects that sample only a small percentage of the area over which the cloud fraction is estimated. As a consequence, the fraction estimate has an associated sampling uncertainty, which usually remains unspecified. This paper extends a Bayesian method of cloud fraction estimation, which also provides an analytical estimate of the sampling error. This method is applied to test the sensitivity of this error to sampling characteristics, such as the number of observed transects and the variability of the underlying cloud field. The dependence of the uncertainty on these characteristics is investigated using synthetic data simulated to have properties closely resembling observations of the spaceborne Lidar NASA-LITE mission. Results suggest that the variance of the cloud fraction is greatest for medium cloud cover and least when conditions are mostly cloudy or clear. However, there is a bias in the estimation, which is greatest around 25% and 75% cloud cover. The sampling uncertainty is also affected by the mean lengths of clouds and of clear intervals; shorter lengths decrease uncertainty, primarily because there are more cloud observations in a transect of a given length. Uncertainty also falls with increasing number of transects. Therefore a sampling strategy aimed at minimizing the uncertainty in transect derived cloud fraction will have to take into account both the cloud and clear sky length distributions as well as the cloud fraction of the observed field. These conclusions have implications for the design of future satellite missions. This paper describes the first integrated methodology for the analytical assessment of sampling uncertainty in cloud fraction observations from forthcoming spaceborne radar and Lidar missions such as NASA's Calipso and CloudSat.

Mutations in the NS2B and NS3 genes affect mouse neuroinvasiveness of a Western European field strain of tick-borne encephalitis virus

An attenuated strain (263) of the tick-borne encephalitis virus, isolated from field ticks, was either serially subcultured, 5 times in mice, or at 40 degrees C in PS cells, producing 2 independent strains, 263-m5 and 263-TR with identical genomes; both strains exhibited increased plaque size, neuroinvasiveness and temperature-resistance. Sequencing revealed two unique amino acid substitutions, one mapping close to the catalytic site of the viral protease. These observations imply that virus adaptation from ticks to mammals occurs by selection of pre-existing virulent variants from the quasispecies population rather than by the emergence of new random mutations. The significance of these observations is discussed. (c) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Simulating global properties of electroencephalograms with minimal random neural networks

The human electroencephalogram (EEG) is globally characterized by a 1/f power spectrum superimposed with certain peaks, whereby the "alpha peak" in a frequency range of 8-14 Hz is the most prominent one for relaxed states of wakefulness. We present simulations of a minimal dynamical network model of leaky integrator neurons attached to the nodes of an evolving directed and weighted random graph (an Erdos-Renyi graph). We derive a model of the dendritic field potential (DFP) for the neurons leading to a simulated EEG that describes the global activity of the network. Depending on the network size, we find an oscillatory transition of the simulated EEG when the network reaches a critical connectivity. This transition, indicated by a suitably defined order parameter, is reflected by a sudden change of the network's topology when super-cycles are formed from merging isolated loops. After the oscillatory transition, the power spectra of simulated EEG time series exhibit a 1/f continuum superimposed with certain peaks. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Random primordial magnetic fields and the gas content of dark matter haloes

We recently predicted the existence of random primordial magnetic fields (RPMFs) in the form of randomly oriented cells with dipole-like structure with a cell size L(0) and an average magnetic field B(0). Here, we investigate models for primordial magnetic field with a similar web-like structure, and other geometries, differing perhaps in L(0) and B(0). The effect of RPMF on the formation of the first galaxies is investigated. The filtering mass, M(F), is the halo mass below which baryon accretion is severely depressed. We show that these RPMF could influence the formation of galaxies by altering the filtering mass and the baryon gas fraction of a halo, f(g). The effect is particularly strong in small galaxies. We find, for example, for a comoving B(0) = 0.1 mu G, and a reionization epoch that starts at z(s) = 11 and ends at z(e) = 8, for L(0) = 100 pc at z = 12, the f(g) becomes severely depressed for M < 10(7) M(circle dot), whereas for B(0) = 0 the f(g) becomes severely depressed only for much smaller masses, M < 10(5) M(circle dot). We suggest that the observation of M(F) and f(g) at high redshifts can give information on the intensity and structure of primordial magnetic fields.

Approach to Equilibrium for a Class of Random Quantum Models of Infinite Range

We consider random generalizations of a quantum model of infinite range introduced by Emch and Radin. The generalizations allow a neat extension from the class l (1) of absolutely summable lattice potentials to the optimal class l (2) of square summable potentials first considered by Khanin and Sinai and generalised by van Enter and van Hemmen. The approach to equilibrium in the case of a Gaussian distribution is proved to be faster than for a Bernoulli distribution for both short-range and long-range lattice potentials. While exponential decay to equilibrium is excluded in the nonrandom l (1) case, it is proved to occur for both short and long range potentials for Gaussian distributions, and for potentials of class l (2) in the Bernoulli case. Open problems are discussed.

Bose systems in spatially random or time-varying potentials

Bose systems, subject to the action of external random potentials, are considered. For describing the system properties, under the action of spatially random potentials of arbitrary strength, the stochastic mean-field approximation is employed. When the strength of disorder increases, the extended Bose-Einstein condensate fragments into spatially disconnected regions, forming a granular condensate. Increasing the strength of disorder even more transforms the granular condensate into the normal glass. The influence of time-dependent external potentials is also discussed. Fastly varying temporal potentials, to some extent, imitate the action of spatially random potentials. In particular, strong time-alternating potential can induce the appearance of a nonequilibrium granular condensate.

Fitting conditional and simultaneous autoregressive spatial models in hglm

We present a new version (> 2.0) of the hglm package for fitting hierarchical generalized linear models (HGLMs) with spatially correlated random effects. CAR() and SAR() families for conditional and simultaneous autoregressive random effects were implemented. Eigen decomposition of the matrix describing the spatial structure (e.g., the neighborhood matrix) was used to transform the CAR/SAR random effects into an independent, but eteroscedastic, Gaussian random effect. A linear predictor is fitted for the random effect variance to estimate the parameters in the CAR and SAR models. This gives a computationally efficient algorithm for moderately sized problems.

Undersampled Critical Branching Processes on Small-World and Random Networks Fail to Reproduce the Statistics of Spike Avalanches

The power-law size distributions obtained experimentally for neuronal avalanches are an important evidence of criticality in the brain. This evidence is supported by the fact that a critical branching process exhibits the same exponent t~3=2. Models at criticality have been employed to mimic avalanche propagation and explain the statistics observed experimentally. However, a crucial aspect of neuronal recordings has been almost completely neglected in the models: undersampling. While in a typical multielectrode array hundreds of neurons are recorded, in the same area of neuronal tissue tens of thousands of neurons can be found. Here we investigate the consequences of undersampling in models with three different topologies (two-dimensional, small-world and random network) and three different dynamical regimes (subcritical, critical and supercritical). We found that undersampling modifies avalanche size distributions, extinguishing the power laws observed in critical systems. Distributions from subcritical systems are also modified, but the shape of the undersampled distributions is more similar to that of a fully sampled system. Undersampled supercritical systems can recover the general characteristics of the fully sampled version, provided that enough neurons are measured. Undersampling in two-dimensional and small-world networks leads to similar effects, while the random network is insensitive to sampling density due to the lack of a well-defined neighborhood. We conjecture that neuronal avalanches recorded from local field potentials avoid undersampling effects due to the nature of this signal, but the same does not hold for spike avalanches. We conclude that undersampled branching-process-like models in these topologies fail to reproduce the statistics of spike avalanches.

Towards coherent optical control of a single hole spin: Rabi rotation of a trion conditional on the spin state of the hole

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Analog Model for Quantum Gravity Effects: Phonons in Random Fluids

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Scalar quantum field theory in disordered media

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Properties of BaBi2Ta2O9 thin films prepared by chemical solution deposition technique for dynamic random-access memory applications

We report on the properties of BaBi2Ta2O9 (BBT) thin films for dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) and integrated capacitor applications. Crystalline BBT thin films were successfully fabricated by the chemical solution deposition technique on Pt-coated Si substrates at a low annealing temperature of 650°C. The films were characterized in terms of structural, dielectric, and insulating properties. The electrical measurements were conducted on Pt/BBT/Pt capacitors. The typical measured small signal dielectric constant and dissipation factor, at 100 kHz, were 282 and 0.023, respectively, for films annealed at 700°C for 60 min. The leakage current density of the films was lower than 10-9 A/cm2 at an applied electric field of 300 kV/cm. A large storage density of 38.4 fC/μm2 was obtained at an applied electric field of 200 kV/cm. The high dielectric constant, low dielectric loss and low leakage current density suggest the suitability of BBT thin films as dielectric layer for DRAM and integrated capacitor applications.

Efficacy and total release interval of mating disruption pheromone on the control of pink bollworm - Pectinophora Gossypiella - in cotton under field conditions in Brazil

This experiment was developed in order to evaluation the efficiency of pheromone to control the pink bollworm and the total time of its release in cotton field. The experiment was installed in field conditions, in Chapadao do Sul/SP/Brazil, from January to April, 1998. The treatments consisted of 2 areas, being one of 30ha, where it was applied the pheromone and another of 10ha that was chosen as control area and did not receive pheromone. In the treated area, the laboratory synthesized sex pheromone (PB-Rope) was used thought of dispensers that allowed the slow and gradual release of the active substance. A total of 250 dispenser per hectare were evenly hand distributed in the area. The dispensers were wrapped around the plants. Both areas (treated area and untreated area) were monitored by delta trap. For evaluation of the boll damage, the treatment area was divided into 4 sub-areas. Twenty five green bolls were collected at random from each sub-area at 48 and 65 days after pheromone treatment. Bolls were cracked open by hand, and number of the bolls with symptoms of pink bollworm attacks was recorded. For evaluation of the productivity four areas were demarcated in each treatment, where all fibers and seeds harvested were weighted. Release rate of pheromone from dispenser was evaluated through of the weigh of the dispensers. Were marked and weighed in analytic scale, 20 dispensers contend the pheromone, being placed 10 dispensers under the cotton plants in treated area and other 10 dispensers in an open area. To every 15 days the dispensers were retired and weighed in analytic scale and soon after put back in the field in the same places. The results showed that only one application of mating disrupt pheromone, used in a dosage of 250 dispenser/ha, reached 80% of control for pink bollworm. the release period of pheromone from dispenser, after the application, was 120 days.

Light-cone fluctuations and the renormalized stress tensor of a massless scalar field

We investigate the effects of light-cone fluctuations over the renormalized vacuum expectation value of the stress-energy tensor of a real massless minimally coupled scalar field defined in a (d+1)-dimensional flat space-time with topology R×Td. For modeling the influence of light-cone fluctuations over the quantum field, we consider a random Klein-Gordon equation. We study the case of centered Gaussian processes. After taking into account all the realizations of the random processes, we present the correction caused by random fluctuations. The averaged renormalized vacuum expectation value of the stress-energy associated with the scalar field is presented. © 2013 World Scientific Publishing Company.

Dispersal of Cotesia flavipes in sugarcane field and implications for parasitoid releases

Diatraea saccharalis Fabr. (Lepidoptera: Crambidae) is a major sugarcane pest in Brazil. The management of infested areas is based on the release of Cotesia flavipes (Cameron) (Hymenoptera: Braconidae), a parasitoid of D. saccharalis larvae, but there are doubts about the effectiveness of C. flavipes, primarily regarding its rate of dispersal in sugarcane fields. Thus, the objective of this study was to evaluate the dispersal of C. flavipes in a sugarcane field and suggest a release method that provides higher parasitoid efficiency. The study was carried out in four areas of approximately 1 ha, in which stalk pieces containing 20 D. saccharalis larvae were distributed in a rectangular grid, and 12,000 C. flavipes adults were released at four points, that were 50 m apart and 25 m from the field border. Three days later, the D. saccharalis larvae were recovered and kept in the laboratory until they reached pupal stage or C. flavipes emergence. Parasitism varied from 13.2% to 42.8%. The random distribution of parasitized larvae was found in one assay. In three areas, the parasitized larvae showed an aggregated distribution, with a range of 15 to 25 m. Since the parasite's success is directly linked to parasitoid dispersion, it would be interesting to move the release points to 30 m from each other because the dispersal may happen in a 15 m radius.