Military crisis management in the next decade (2020-2030) : inducing consent or relying on compliance?

The most outstanding conceptual challenge of modern crisis management is the principle of consent. It is not a problem only at the operational level - it challenges the entire decision-making structures of crisis management operations. In post-cold war times and especially in the 21st century, there has been a transition from peacekeeping with limited size and scope towards large and complex peace operations. This shift has presented peace operations with a dilemma. How to balance between maintaining consent for peace operations, whilst being able to use military force to coerce those attempting to wreck peace processes? To address such a dilemma, this research aims to promote understanding, on what can be achieved by military crisis management operations (peace support operations) in the next decade. The research concentrates on the focal research question: Should military components induce consent or rely on the compliance of conflicting parties in crisis management operations of the next decade (2020 – 2030)? The focus is on military – political strategic level considerations, and especially on the time before political decisions to commit to a crisis management operation. This study does not focus on which actor or organisation should intervene. The framework of this thesis derives from the so called ‘peacebuilding space’, the scope of peace operations and spoiler theory. Feasibility of both peace enforcement and peacekeeping in countering future risk conditions are analysed in this framework. This future-orientated qualitative research uses the Delphi-method with a panel of national and international experts. Citation analysis supports identification of relevant reference material, which consists of contemporary literature, the Delphi-questionnaires and interviews. The research process followed three main stages. In the first stage, plausible future scenarios and risk conditions were identified with the Delphi-panel. In the second stage, operating environments for peace support operations were described and consequent hypotheses formulated. In the third stage, these hypotheses were tested on the Delphi-panel. The Delphi-panel is sufficiently wide and diverse to produce plausible yet different insights. The research design utilised specifically military crisis management and peace operations theories. This produced various and relevant normative considerations. Therefore, one may argue that this research; which is based on accepted contemporary theory, hypotheses derived thereof and utilising an expert panel, contributes to the realm of peace support operations. This research finds that some degree of peace enforcement will be feasible and necessary in at least the following risk conditions: failed governance; potential spillover of ethnic, religious, ideological conflict; vulnerability of strategic chokepoints and infrastructures in ungoverned spaces; as well as in territorial and extra-territorial border disputes. In addition, some form of peace enforcement is probably necessary in risk conditions pertaining to: extremism of marginalised groups; potential disputes over previously uninhabited and resource-rich territories; and interstate rivalry. Furthermore, this research finds that peacekeeping measures will be feasible and necessary in at least risk conditions pertaining to: potential spillover of ethnic, religious, ideological conflict; uncontrolled migration; consequences from environmental catastrophes or changes; territorial and extra-territorial border disputes; and potential disputes over previously uninhabited and resource-rich territories. These findings are all subject to both generic and case specific preconditions that must exist for a peace support operation. Some deductions could be derived from the research findings. Although some risk conditions may appear illogical, understanding the underlying logic of a conflict is fundamental to understanding transition in crisis management. Practitioners of crisis management should possess cognizance of such transition. They must understand how transition should occur from threat to safety, from conflict to stability – and so forth. Understanding transition is imperative for managing the dynamic evolution of preconditions, which begins at the outset of a peace support operation. Furthermore, it is pertinent that spoilers are defined from a peace process point of view. If spoilers are defined otherwise, it changes the nature of an operation towards war, where the logic is breaking the will of an enemy - and surrender. In peace support operations, the logic is different: actions towards spoilers are intended to cause transition towards consent - not defeat. Notwithstanding future developments, history continues to provide strategic education. However, the distinction is that the risk conditions occur in novel futures. Hence, lessons learned from the past should be fitted to the case at hand. This research shows compelling evidence that swaying between intervention optimism and pessimism is not substantiated. Both peace enforcement and peacekeeping are sine qua non for successful military crisis management in the next decade.

Towards combining interactive mobile TV and smart spaces : architectures, tools and application development

Technological developments in microprocessors and ICT landscape have made a shift to a new era where computing power is embedded in numerous small distributed objects and devices in our everyday lives. These small computing devices are ne-tuned to perform a particular task and are increasingly reaching our society at every level. For example, home appliances such as programmable washing machines, microwave ovens etc., employ several sensors to improve performance and convenience. Similarly, cars have on-board computers that use information from many di erent sensors to control things such as fuel injectors, spark plug etc., to perform their tasks e ciently. These individual devices make life easy by helping in taking decisions and removing the burden from their users. All these objects and devices obtain some piece of information about the physical environment. Each of these devices is an island with no proper connectivity and information sharing between each other. Sharing of information between these heterogeneous devices could enable a whole new universe of innovative and intelligent applications. The information sharing between the devices is a diffcult task due to the heterogeneity and interoperability of devices. Smart Space vision is to overcome these issues of heterogeneity and interoperability so that the devices can understand each other and utilize services of each other by information sharing. This enables innovative local mashup applications based on shared data between heterogeneous devices. Smart homes are one such example of Smart Spaces which facilitate to bring the health care system to the patient, by intelligent interconnection of resources and their collective behavior, as opposed to bringing the patient into the health system. In addition, the use of mobile handheld devices has risen at a tremendous rate during the last few years and they have become an essential part of everyday life. Mobile phones o er a wide range of different services to their users including text and multimedia messages, Internet, audio, video, email applications and most recently TV services. The interactive TV provides a variety of applications for the viewers. The combination of interactive TV and the Smart Spaces could give innovative applications that are personalized, context-aware, ubiquitous and intelligent by enabling heterogeneous systems to collaborate each other by sharing information between them. There are many challenges in designing the frameworks and application development tools for rapid and easy development of these applications. The research work presented in this thesis addresses these issues. The original publications presented in the second part of this thesis propose architectures and methodologies for interactive and context-aware applications, and tools for the development of these applications. We demonstrated the suitability of our ontology-driven application development tools and rule basedapproach for the development of dynamic, context-aware ubiquitous iTV applications.

A simulation model of the optimal maintenance strategy: conceptual agent-based approach

In this Master’s thesis agent-based modeling has been used to analyze maintenance strategy related phenomena. The main research question that has been answered was: what does the agent-based model made for this study tell us about how different maintenance strategy decisions affect profitability of equipment owners and maintenance service providers? Thus, the main outcome of this study is an analysis of how profitability can be increased in industrial maintenance context. To answer that question, first, a literature review of maintenance strategy, agent-based modeling and maintenance modeling and optimization was conducted. This review provided the basis for making the agent-based model. Making the model followed a standard simulation modeling procedure. With the simulation results from the agent-based model the research question was answered. Specifically, the results of the modeling and this study are: (1) optimizing the point in which a machine is maintained increases profitability for the owner of the machine and also the maintainer with certain conditions; (2) time-based pricing of maintenance services leads to a zero-sum game between the parties; (3) value-based pricing of maintenance services leads to a win-win game between the parties, if the owners of the machines share a substantial amount of their value to the maintainers; and (4) error in machine condition measurement is a critical parameter to optimizing maintenance strategy, and there is real systemic value in having more accurate machine condition measurement systems.

Spontaneous Focusing on Quantitative Relations and the Development of Rational Number Conceptual Knowledge

The aim of the present set of studies was to explore primary school children’s Spontaneous Focusing On quantitative Relations (SFOR) and its role in the development of rational number conceptual knowledge. The specific goals were to determine if it was possible to identify a spontaneous quantitative focusing tendency that indexes children’s tendency to recognize and utilize quantitative relations in non-explicitly mathematical situations and to determine if this tendency has an impact on the development of rational number conceptual knowledge in late primary school. To this end, we report on six original empirical studies that measure SFOR in children ages five to thirteen years and the development of rational number conceptual knowledge in ten- to thirteen-year-olds. SFOR measures were developed to determine if there are substantial differences in SFOR that are not explained by the ability to use quantitative relations. A measure of children’s conceptual knowledge of the magnitude representations of rational numbers and the density of rational numbers is utilized to capture the process of conceptual change with rational numbers in late primary school students. Finally, SFOR tendency was examined in relation to the development of rational number conceptual knowledge in these students. Study I concerned the first attempts to measure individual differences in children’s spontaneous recognition and use of quantitative relations in 86 Finnish children from the ages of five to seven years. Results revealed that there were substantial inter-individual differences in the spontaneous recognition and use of quantitative relations in these tasks. This was particularly true for the oldest group of participants, who were in grade one (roughly seven years old). However, the study did not control for ability to solve the tasks using quantitative relations, so it was not clear if these differences were due to ability or SFOR. Study II more deeply investigated the nature of the two tasks reported in Study I, through the use of a stimulated-recall procedure examining children’s verbalizations of how they interpreted the tasks. Results reveal that participants were able to verbalize reasoning about their quantitative relational responses, but not their responses based on exact number. Furthermore, participants’ non-mathematical responses revealed a variety of other aspects, beyond quantitative relations and exact number, which participants focused on in completing the tasks. These results suggest that exact number may be more easily perceived than quantitative relations. As well, these tasks were revealed to contain both mathematical and non-mathematical aspects which were interpreted by the participants as relevant. Study III investigated individual differences in SFOR 84 children, ages five to nine, from the US and is the first to report on the connection between SFOR and other mathematical abilities. The cross-sectional data revealed that there were individual differences in SFOR. Importantly, these differences were not entirely explained by the ability to solve the tasks using quantitative relations, suggesting that SFOR is partially independent from the ability to use quantitative relations. In other words, the lack of use of quantitative relations on the SFOR tasks was not solely due to participants being unable to solve the tasks using quantitative relations, but due to a lack of the spontaneous attention to the quantitative relations in the tasks. Furthermore, SFOR tendency was found to be related to arithmetic fluency among these participants. This is the first evidence to suggest that SFOR may be a partially distinct aspect of children’s existing mathematical competences. Study IV presented a follow-up study of the first graders who participated in Studies I and II, examining SFOR tendency as a predictor of their conceptual knowledge of fraction magnitudes in fourth grade. Results revealed that first graders’ SFOR tendency was a unique predictor of fraction conceptual knowledge in fourth grade, even after controlling for general mathematical skills. These results are the first to suggest that SFOR tendency may play a role in the development of rational number conceptual knowledge. Study V presents a longitudinal study of the development of 263 Finnish students’ rational number conceptual knowledge over a one year period. During this time participants completed a measure of conceptual knowledge of the magnitude representations and the density of rational numbers at three time points. First, a Latent Profile Analysis indicated that a four-class model, differentiating between those participants with high magnitude comparison and density knowledge, was the most appropriate. A Latent Transition Analysis reveal that few students display sustained conceptual change with density concepts, though conceptual change with magnitude representations is present in this group. Overall, this study indicated that there were severe deficiencies in conceptual knowledge of rational numbers, especially concepts of density. The longitudinal Study VI presented a synthesis of the previous studies in order to specifically detail the role of SFOR tendency in the development of rational number conceptual knowledge. Thus, the same participants from Study V completed a measure of SFOR, along with the rational number test, including a fourth time point. Results reveal that SFOR tendency was a predictor of rational number conceptual knowledge after two school years, even after taking into consideration prior rational number knowledge (through the use of residualized SFOR scores), arithmetic fluency, and non-verbal intelligence. Furthermore, those participants with higher-than-expected SFOR scores improved significantly more on magnitude representation and density concepts over the four time points. These results indicate that SFOR tendency is a strong predictor of rational number conceptual development in late primary school children. The results of the six studies reveal that within children’s existing mathematical competences there can be identified a spontaneous quantitative focusing tendency named spontaneous focusing on quantitative relations. Furthermore, this tendency is found to play a role in the development of rational number conceptual knowledge in primary school children. Results suggest that conceptual change with the magnitude representations and density of rational numbers is rare among this group of students. However, those children who are more likely to notice and use quantitative relations in situations that are not explicitly mathematical seem to have an advantage in the development of rational number conceptual knowledge. It may be that these students gain quantitative more and qualitatively better self-initiated deliberate practice with quantitative relations in everyday situations due to an increased SFOR tendency. This suggests that it may be important to promote this type of mathematical activity in teaching rational numbers. Furthermore, these results suggest that there may be a series of spontaneous quantitative focusing tendencies that have an impact on mathematical development throughout the learning trajectory.

Lebesgue and Sobolev spaces with variable exponents

Kirjallisuusarvostelu

Semantic and fuzzy modelling for human behaviour recognition in smart spaces : a case study on ambient assisted living.

Human activity recognition in everyday environments is a critical, but challenging task in Ambient Intelligence applications to achieve proper Ambient Assisted Living, and key challenges still remain to be dealt with to realize robust methods. One of the major limitations of the Ambient Intelligence systems today is the lack of semantic models of those activities on the environment, so that the system can recognize the speci c activity being performed by the user(s) and act accordingly. In this context, this thesis addresses the general problem of knowledge representation in Smart Spaces. The main objective is to develop knowledge-based models, equipped with semantics to learn, infer and monitor human behaviours in Smart Spaces. Moreover, it is easy to recognize that some aspects of this problem have a high degree of uncertainty, and therefore, the developed models must be equipped with mechanisms to manage this type of information. A fuzzy ontology and a semantic hybrid system are presented to allow modelling and recognition of a set of complex real-life scenarios where vagueness and uncertainty are inherent to the human nature of the users that perform it. The handling of uncertain, incomplete and vague data (i.e., missing sensor readings and activity execution variations, since human behaviour is non-deterministic) is approached for the rst time through a fuzzy ontology validated on real-time settings within a hybrid data-driven and knowledgebased architecture. The semantics of activities, sub-activities and real-time object interaction are taken into consideration. The proposed framework consists of two main modules: the low-level sub-activity recognizer and the high-level activity recognizer. The rst module detects sub-activities (i.e., actions or basic activities) that take input data directly from a depth sensor (Kinect). The main contribution of this thesis tackles the second component of the hybrid system, which lays on top of the previous one, in a superior level of abstraction, and acquires the input data from the rst module's output, and executes ontological inference to provide users, activities and their in uence in the environment, with semantics. This component is thus knowledge-based, and a fuzzy ontology was designed to model the high-level activities. Since activity recognition requires context-awareness and the ability to discriminate among activities in di erent environments, the semantic framework allows for modelling common-sense knowledge in the form of a rule-based system that supports expressions close to natural language in the form of fuzzy linguistic labels. The framework advantages have been evaluated with a challenging and new public dataset, CAD-120, achieving an accuracy of 90.1% and 91.1% respectively for low and high-level activities. This entails an improvement over both, entirely data-driven approaches, and merely ontology-based approaches. As an added value, for the system to be su ciently simple and exible to be managed by non-expert users, and thus, facilitate the transfer of research to industry, a development framework composed by a programming toolbox, a hybrid crisp and fuzzy architecture, and graphical models to represent and con gure human behaviour in Smart Spaces, were developed in order to provide the framework with more usability in the nal application. As a result, human behaviour recognition can help assisting people with special needs such as in healthcare, independent elderly living, in remote rehabilitation monitoring, industrial process guideline control, and many other cases. This thesis shows use cases in these areas.

A conceptual and practical overview of cDNA microarray technology: implications for basic and clinical sciences

cDNA microarray is an innovative technology that facilitates the analysis of the expression of thousands of genes simultaneously. The utilization of this methodology, which is rapidly evolving, requires a combination of expertise from the biological, mathematical and statistical sciences. In this review, we attempt to provide an overview of the principles of cDNA microarray technology, the practical concerns of the analytical processing of the data obtained, the correlation of this methodology with other data analysis methods such as immunohistochemistry in tissue microarrays, and the cDNA microarray application in distinct areas of the basic and clinical sciences.

Rationality in children: the first steps

Not all categorization is conceptual. Many of the experimental findings concerning infant and animal categorization invite the hypothesis that the subjects form abstract perceptual representations, mental models or cognitive maps that are not composed of concepts. The paper is a reflection upon the idea that conceptual categorization involves the ability to make categorical judgements under the guidance of norms of rationality. These include a norm of truth-seeking and a norm of good evidence. Acceptance of these norms implies willingness to defer to cognitive authorities, unwillingness to commit oneself to contradictions, and knowledge of how to reorganize one's representational system upon discovering that one has made a mistake. It is proposed that the cognitive architecture required for basic rationality is similar to that which underlies pretend-play. The representational system must be able to make room for separate 'mental spaces' in which alternatives to the actual world are entertained. The same feature underlies the ability to understand modalities, time, the appearance-reality distinction, other minds, and ethics. Each area of understanding admits of degrees, and mastery (up to normal adult level) takes years. But rational concept-management, at least in its most rudimentary form, does not require a capacity to form second-order representations. It requires knowledge of how to operate upon, and compare, the contents of different mental spaces.

Remote Observation of Radioactive Permit-Required Confined Spaces – Case: Posiva Oy’s Fuel Handling Cell

Posiva Oy’s final disposal facility’s encapsulation plant will start to operate in the 2020s. Once the operation starts, the facility is designed to run more than a hundred years. The encapsulation plant will be first of its kind in the world, being part of the solution to solve a global issue of final disposal of nuclear waste. In the encapsulation plant’s fuel handling cell the spent nuclear fuel will be processed to be deposited into the Finnish bedrock, into ONKALO. In the fuel handling cell, the environment is highly radioactive forming a permit-required enclosed space. Remote observation is needed in order to monitor the fuel handling process. The purpose of this thesis is to map (Part I) and compare (Part II) remote observation methods to observe Posiva Oy’s fuel handling cell’s process, and provide a possible theoretical solution for this case. Secondary purpose for this thesis is to provide resources for other remote observation cases, as well as to inform about possible future technology to enable readiness in the design of the encapsulation plant. The approach was to theoretically analyze the mapped remote observation methods. Firstly, the methods were filtered by three environmental challenges. These are the high levels of radiation, the permit-required confined space and the hundred year timespan. Secondly, the most promising methods were selected by the experts designing the facility. Thirdly, a customized feasibility analysis was created and performed on the selected methods to rank the methods with scores. The results are the mapped methods and the feasibility analysis scores. The three highest scoring methods were radiation tolerant camera, fiberscope and audio feed. A combination of these three methods was given as a possible theoretical solution for this case. As this case is first in the world, remote observation methods for it had not been thoroughly researched. The findings in this thesis will act as initial data for the design of the fuel handling cell’s remote observation systems and can potentially effect on the overall design of the facility by providing unique and case specific information. In addition, this thesis could provide resources for other remote observation cases.

Elementos del marco conceptual: Competitividad, clusters y valor compartido

Gestión del conocimiento