Characterisation of extreme winter precipitation in Mediterranean coastal sites and associated anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns

We present an analysis of daily extreme precipitation events for the extended winter season (October–March) at 20 Mediterranean coastal sites covering the period 1950–2006. The heavy tailed behaviour of precipitation extremes and estimated return levels, including associated uncertainties, are derived applying a procedure based on the Generalized Pareto Distribution, in combination with recently developed methods. Precipitation extremes have an important contribution to make seasonal totals (approximately 60% for all series). Three stations (one in the western Mediterranean and the others in the eastern basin) have a 5-year return level above 100 mm, while the lowest value (estimated for two Italian series) is equal to 58 mm. As for the 50-year return level, an Italian station (Genoa) has the highest value of 264 mm, while the other values range from 82 to 200 mm. Furthermore, six series (from stations located in France, Italy, Greece, and Cyprus) show a significant negative tendency in the probability of observing an extreme event. The relationship between extreme precipitation events and the large scale atmospheric circulation at the upper, mid and low troposphere is investigated by using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. A 2-step classification procedure identifies three significant anomaly patterns both for the western-central and eastern part of the Mediterranean basin. In the western Mediterranean, the anomalous southwesterly surface to mid-tropospheric flow is connected with enhanced moisture transport from the Atlantic. During ≥5-year return level events, the subtropical jet stream axis is aligned with the African coastline and interacts with the eddy-driven jet stream. This is connected with enhanced large scale ascending motions, instability and leads to the development of severe precipitation events. For the eastern Mediterranean extreme precipitation events, the identified anomaly patterns suggest warm air advection connected with anomalous ascent motions and an increase of the low- to mid-tropospheric moisture. Furthermore, the jet stream position (during ≥5-year return level events) supports the eastern basin being in a divergence area, where ascent motions are favoured. Our results contribute to an improved understanding of daily precipitation extremes in the cold season and associated large scale atmospheric features.

STATE-AND-TRANSITION MODELING AND ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT: TOOLS FOR FUTURE CO-DEVELOPMENT OF MADAGASCAR’S NATURAL RESOURCES AND PEOPLE

Madagascar’s terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems have long supported a unique set of ecological communities, many of whom are endemic to the tropical island. Those same ecosystems have been a source of valuable natural resources to some of the poorest people in the world. Nevertheless, with pride, ingenuity and resourcefulness, the Malagasy people of the southwest coast, being of Vezo identity, subsist with low development fishing techniques aimed at an increasingly threatened host of aquatic seascapes. Mangroves, sea grass bed, and coral reefs of the region are under increased pressure from the general populace for both food provisions and support of economic opportunity. Besides purveyors and extractors, the coastal waters are also subject to a number of natural stressors, including cyclones and invasive, predator species of both flora and fauna. In addition, the aquatic ecosystems of the region are undergoing increased nutrient and sediment runoff due, in part, to Madagascar’s heavy reliance on land for agricultural purposes (Scales, 2011). Moreover, its coastal waters, like so many throughout the world, have been proven to be warming at an alarming rate over the past few decades. In recognizing the intimate interconnectedness of the both the social and ecological systems, conservation organizations have invoked a host of complimentary conservation and social development efforts with the dual aim of preserving or restoring the health of both the coastal ecosystems and the people of the region. This paper provides a way of thinking more holistically about the social-ecological system within a resiliency frame of understanding. Secondly, it applies a platform known as state-and-transition modeling to give form to the process. State-and-transition modeling is an iterative investigation into the physical makeup of a system of study as well as the boundaries and influences on that state, and has been used in restorative ecology for more than a decade. Lastly, that model is sited within an adaptive management scheme that provides a structured, cyclical, objective-oriented process for testing stakeholders cognitive understanding of the ecosystem through a pragmatic implementation and monitoring a host of small-scale interventions developed as part of the adaptive management process. Throughout, evidence of the application of the theories and frameworks are offered, with every effort made to retool conservation-minded development practitioners with a comprehensive strategy for addressing the increasingly fragile social-ecological systems of southwest Madagascar. It is offered, in conclusion, that the seascapes of the region would be an excellent case study worthy of future application of state-and-transition modeling and adaptive management as frameworks for conservation-minded development practitioners whose multiple projects, each with its own objective, have been implemented with a single goal in mind: preserve and protect the state of the supporting environment while providing for the basic needs of the local Malagasy people.

Development of a rapid bioassessment method and index of biotic integrity for estuaries located along the northwest Gulf of Mexico

Recently it has been proposed that the evaluation of effects of pollutants on aquatic organisms can provide an early warning system of potential environmental and human health risks (NRC 1991). Unfortunately there are few methods available to aquatic biologists to conduct assessments of the effects of pollutants on aquatic animal community health. The primary goal of this research was to develop and evaluate the feasibility of such a method. Specifically, the primary objective of this study was to develop a prototype rapid bioassessment technique similar to the Index of Biotic Integrity (IBI) for the upper Texas and Northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastal tributaries. The IBI consists of a series of "metrics" which describes specific attributes of the aquatic community. Each of these metrics are given a score which is then subtotaled to derive a total assessment of the "health" of the aquatic community. This IBI procedure may provide an additional assessment tool for professionals in water quality management.^ The experimental design consisted primarily of compiling previously collected data from monitoring conducted by the Texas Natural Resource Conservation Commission (TNRCC) at five bayous classified according to potential for anthropogenic impact and salinity regime. Standardized hydrological, chemical, and biological monitoring had been conducted in each of these watersheds. The identification and evaluation of candidate metrics for inclusion in the estuarine IBI was conducted through the use of correlation analysis, cluster analysis, stepwise and normal discriminant analysis, and evaluation of cumulative distribution frequencies. Scores of each included metric were determined based on exceedances of specific percentiles. Individual scores were summed and a total IBI score and rank for the community computed.^ Results of these analyses yielded the proposed metrics and rankings listed in this report. Based on the results of this study, incorporation of an estuarine IBI method as a water quality assessment tool is warranted. Adopted metrics were correlated to seasonal trends and less so to salinity gradients observed during the study (0-25 ppt). Further refinement of this method is needed using a larger more inclusive data set which includes additional habitat types, salinity ranges, and temporal variation. ^

Assessing dynamics of forced livestock movements, livelihoods and future development options for pastoralists/agro-pastoralists in Ruvuma and Lindi Regions, in the Southern Tanzania

The study that aimed at understanding the dynamics of forced livestock movements and pastoral livelihood and development options was conducted in Lindi and Ruvuma regions, using both formal and informal approaches. Data were collected from 60 randomly selected Agro-pastoralists/Pastoralists and native farmers using a structured questionnaire. Four villages were involved; two in Lindi region (Matandu and Mkwajuni) and the other two in Ruvuma region (Gumbiro and Muhuwesi). Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics of SPSS to generate means and frequencies. The results indicate that a large number of animals moved into the study area following the eviction order of the government in Ihefu wetlands in 2006/2007. Lindi region was earmarked by the government to receive all the evicted pastoralists. However, by 2008 only 30% of the total cattle that were expected to move into the region had been received. Deaths of many animals on transit, selling of the animals to pay for transportation and other costs while on transit and many pastoralists settling in Coastal and Ruvuma regions before reaching their destinations were reported to be the reasons for the discrepancy observed. To mitigate anticipated conflicts between farmers and pastoralists, Participatory Land Use Management (PLUM) plans were developed in all the study villages in order to demarcate village land area into different uses, including grazing, cropping, settlement and forests. Land units for grazing were supposed to be provided with all necessary livestock infrastructures (dips, charcoal dams, livestock markets and stock routes). However, the land use plans were not able to prevent the anticipated conflicts because most of the livestock infrastructures were lacking, the land use boundaries were not clearly demarcated and there was limited enforcement of village by-laws, since most had not been enacted by the respective district councils. Similarly, the areas allocated for grazing were inadequate for the number of livestock available and thus the carrying capacity exceeded. Thus, land resource-based conflicts between farmers and pastoralists were emerging in the study areas for the reason that most of the important components in the PLUM plans were not in place. Nevertheless, the arrival of pastoralists in the study areas had positive effects on food security and growth of social interactions between pastoralists and farmers including marriages between them. Environmental degradations due to the arrival of livestock were also not evident. Thus, there is a need for the government to purposely set aside enough grazing land with all necessary infrastructures in place for the agro-pastoral/pastoral communities in the country.

MARECHIARA-mesozooplankton long-term time-series at the fixed coastal station in the Gulf of Naples: abundance and biomass, data for the years 1984-2006

The MARECHIARA-mesozooplankton dataset contains mesozooplankton data collected in the ongoing time-series at Sation MC (40°48.5' N, 14°15' E) in the Gulf of Naples. This dataset spans over the period 1984-2006 and contains data of mesozooplankton abundance and species composition as well as biomass (as dry weight). Mesozooplankton was regularly sampled in 1984-1990 and 1995-2006, only a few samples were collected in 1991-1992 and no samples in 1993-1994. During the first period of the series sampling frequency was fortnightly, and weekly since 1995.

Impacts of ocean warming and acidification on the larval development of the barnacle Amphibalanus improvisus

The world's oceans are warming and becoming more acidic. Both stressors, singly or in combination, impact marine species, and ensuing effects might be particularly serious for early life stages. To date most studies have focused on ocean acidification (OA) effects in fully marine environments, while little attention has been devoted to more variable coastal ecosystems, such as the Western Baltic Sea. Since natural spatial and temporal variability of environmental conditions such as salinity, temperature or pCO2 impose more complex stresses upon organisms inhabiting these habitats, species can be expected to be more tolerant to OA (or warming) than fully marine taxa. We present data on the variability of salinity, temperature and pH within the Kiel Fjord and on the responses of the barnacle Amphibalanus improvisus from this habitat to simulated warming and OA during its early development. Nauplii and cyprids were exposed to different temperature (12, 20 and 27°C) and pCO2 (nominally 400, 1250 and 3250 µatm) treatments for 8 and 4 weeks, respectively. Survival, larval duration and settlement success were monitored. Warming affected larval responses more strongly than OA. Increased temperatures favored survival and development of nauplii but decreased survival of cyprids. OA had no effect upon survival of nauplii but enhanced their development at low (12°C) and high (27°C) temperatures. In contrast, at the intermediate temperature (20°C), nauplii were not affected even by 3250 µatm pCO2. None of the treatments significantly affected settlement success of cyprids. These experiments show a remarkable tolerance of A. improvisus larvae to 1250 µatm pCO2, the level of OA predicted for the end of the century.

Coastal erosion dynamics and storm characteristics of Bykovsky Peninsula

This study investigates the rate of erosion during the 1951-2006 period on the Bykovsky Peninsula, located north-east of the harbour town of Tiksi, north Siberia. Its coastline, which is characterized by the presence of ice-rich sediment (Ice Complex) and the vicinity of the Lena River Delta, retreated at a mean rate of 0.59 m/yr between 1951 and 2006. Total erosion ranged from 434 m of erosion to 92 m of accretion during these 56 years and exhibited large variability (sigma = 45.4). Ninety-seven percent of the rates observed were less than 2 m/yr and 81.6% were less than 1 m/yr. No significant trend in erosion could be recorded despite the study of five temporal subperiods within 1951-2006. Erosion modes and rates actually appear to be strongly dependant on the nature of the backshore material, erosion being stronger along low-lying coastal stretches affected by past or current thermokarst activity. The juxtaposition of wind records monitored at the town of Tiksi and erosion records yielded no significant relationship despite strong record amplitude for both data sets. We explain this poor relationship by the only rough incorporation of sea-ice cover in our storm extraction algorithm, the use of land-based wind records vs. offshore winds, the proximity of the peninsula to the Lena River Delta freshwater and sediment plume and the local topographical constraints on wave development.

Effect of ocean acidification and pH fluctuations on the growth and development of coralline algal recruits, and an associated benthic algal assemblage

Coralline algae are susceptible to the changes in the seawater carbonate system associated with ocean acidification (OA). However, the coastal environments in which corallines grow are subject to large daily pH fluctuations which may affect their responses to OA. Here, we followed the growth and development of the juvenile coralline alga Arthrocardia corymbosa, which had recruited into experimental conditions during a prior experiment, using a novel OA laboratory culture system to simulate the pH fluctuations observed within a kelp forest. Microscopic life history stages are considered more susceptible to environmental stress than adult stages; we compared the responses of newly recruited A. corymbosa to static and fluctuating seawater pH with those of their field-collected parents. Recruits were cultivated for 16 weeks under static pH 8.05 and 7.65, representing ambient and 4*preindustrial pCO2 concentrations, respectively, and two fluctuating pH treatments of daily (daytime pH = 8.45, night-time pH = 7.65) and daily (daytime pH = 8.05, night-time pH = 7.25). Positive growth rates of new recruits were recorded in all treatments, and were highest under static pH 8.05 and lowest under fluctuating pH 7.65. This pattern was similar to the adults' response, except that adults had zero growth under fluctuating pH 7.65. The % dry weight of MgCO3 in calcite of the juveniles was reduced from 10% at pH 8.05 to 8% at pH 7.65, but there was no effect of pH fluctuation. A wide range of fleshy macroalgae and at least 6 species of benthic diatoms recruited across all experimental treatments, from cryptic spores associated with the adult A. corymbosa. There was no effect of experimental treatment on the growth of the benthic diatoms. On the community level, pH-sensitive species may survive lower pH in the presence of diatoms and fleshy macroalgae, whose high metabolic activity may raise the pH of the local microhabitat.

Impact of CO2 enrichment on organic matter dynamics during nutrient induced coastal phytoplankton blooms

A mesocosm experiment was conducted to investigate the impact of rising fCO2 on the build-up and decline of organic matter during coastal phytoplankton blooms. Five mesocosms (~38 m³ each) were deployed in the Baltic Sea during spring (2009) and enriched with CO2 to yield a gradient of 355-862 µatm. Mesocosms were nutrient fertilized initially to induce phytoplankton bloom development. Changes in particulate and dissolved organic matter concentrations, including dissolved high-molecular weight (>1 kDa) combined carbohydrates, dissolved free and combined amino acids as well as transparent exopolymer particles (TEP), were monitored over 21 days together with bacterial abundance, and hydrolytic extracellular enzyme activities. Overall, organic matter followed well-known bloom dynamics in all CO2 treatments alike. At high fCO2, higher dPOC:dPON during bloom rise, and higher TEP concentrations during bloom peak, suggested preferential accumulation of carbon-rich components. TEP concentration at bloom peak was significantly related to subsequent sedimentation of particulate organic matter. Bacterial abundance increased during the bloom and was highest at high fCO2. We conclude that increasing fCO2 supports production and exudation of carbon-rich components, enhancing particle aggregation and settling, but also providing substrate and attachment sites for bacteria. More labile organic carbon and higher bacterial abundance can increase rates of oxygen consumption and may intensify the already high risk of oxygen depletion in coastal seas in the future.

Elevated CO2 affects embryonic development and larval phototaxis in a temperate marine fish

As an effect of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, the chemistry of the world's oceans is changing. Understanding how this will affect marine organisms and ecosystems are critical in predicting the impacts of this ongoing ocean acidification. Work on coral reef fishes has revealed dramatic effects of elevated oceanic CO2 on sensory responses and behavior. Such effects may be widespread but have almost exclusively been tested on tropical reef fishes. Here we test the effects elevated CO2 has on the reproduction and early life history stages of a temperate coastal goby with paternal care by allowing goby pairs to reproduce naturally in an aquarium with either elevated (ca 1400 µatm) CO2 or control seawater (ca 370 µatm CO2). Elevated CO2 did not affect the occurrence of spawning nor clutch size, but increased embryonic abnormalities and egg loss. Moreover, we found that elevated CO2 significantly affected the phototactic response of newly hatched larvae. Phototaxis is a vision-related fundamental behavior of many marine fishes, but has never before been tested in the context of ocean acidification. Our findings suggest that ocean acidification affects embryonic development and sensory responses in temperate fishes, with potentially important implications for fish recruitment.

Coastal Urban Flood Resislience versus Climate Change

Processes of founding and expanding cities in coastal areas have undergone great changes over time driven by environmental conditions. Coastal settlements looked for places above flood levels and away from swamps and other wetlands whenever possible. As populations grew, cities were extending trying to avoid low and wet lands. No city has been able to limit its growth. The risk of flooding can never be eliminated, but only reduced to the extent possible. Flooding of coastal areas is today dramatically attributed to eustasic sea level rise caused by global climate change. This can be inaccurate. Current climate change is generating an average sea level upward trend, but other regional and local factors result in this trend being accentuated in some places or attenuated, and even reversed, in others. Then, the intensity and frequency of coastal flooding around the planet, although not so much as a unique result of this general eustasic elevation, but rather of the superposition of marine and crustal dynamic elements, the former also climate-related, which give rise to a temporary raising in average sea level in the short term. Since the Little Ice Age the planet has been suffering a global warming change leading to sea level rise. The idea of being too obeying to anthropogenic factors may be attributed to Arrhenius (1896), though it is of much later highlight after the sixties of the last century. Never before, the human factor had been able of such an influence on climate. However, other types of changes in sea levels became apparent, resulting from vertical movements of the crust, modifications of sea basins due to continents fracturing, drifting and coming together, or to different types of climate patterns. Coastal zones are then doubly susceptible to floods. Precipitation immediately triggers pluvial flooding. If it continues upland or when snow and glaciers melt eventually fluvial flooding can occur. The urban development presence represents modifying factors. Additional interference is caused by river and waste water drainage systems. Climate also influences sea levels in coastal areas, where tides as well as the structure and dynamic of the geoid and its crust come into play. From the sea, waters can flood and break or push back berms and other coastline borders. The sea level, controlling the mouth of the main channel of the basin's drainage system, is ultimately what governs flood levels. A temporary rise in sea level acts as a dam at the mouth. Even in absence of that global change, so, floods are likely going to increase in many urban coastal areas. Some kind of innovative methodologies and practices should be needed to get more flood resilience cities