The Signalling Channel of Central Bank Interventions: Modelling the Yen/US Dollar Exchange Rate

This paper presents a theoretical framework analysing the signalling channel of exchange rate interventions as an informational trigger. We develop an implicit target zone framework with learning in order to model the signalling channel. The theoretical premise of the model is that interventions convey signals that communicate information about the exchange rate objectives of central bank. The model is used to analyse the impact of Japanese FX interventions during the period 1999 -2011 on the yen/US dollar dynamics.

Prise en charge de l'ulcère de jambe d'origine veineuse [Management of venous leg ulcers].

Leg ulcers are a major health and economic problem especially in elderly. More than 70% are associated with venous disease. Compressive therapy is the most effective treatment but bandages are often poorly tolerated and well trained nurses are required to apply them effectively. In recent years, the VAC system (vacuum assisted closure) has profoundly changed the wound healing approach. The objective is now to regenerate the tissues and not to replace them with skin grafts which give uncertain results. The other important challenge is to prevent recurrences. New pharmacologic treatments acting on microcirculation and hemostasis would probably appear in the near future opening new therapeutic perspectives.

Prise en charge par une équipe pluridisciplinaire des patients avec multiples vulnérabilités dans un service d'urgence

Introduction: Les centres d'urgence se trouvent régulièrement confrontés à des patients avec de multiples vulnérabilités médico-sociales qui recourent préférentiellement aux urgences pour y recevoir des soins de bases. Leurs fréquentes consultations contribuent à encombrer les urgences : dans notre service d'urgence entre avril 2008 et mars 2009, une étude ayant pour but de caractériser ces patients a montré que 14 % de l'ensemble des consultations ont été causées par 5 % des patients admis > 4 x/an.Matériel et méthode: Cohorte prospective des patients admis aux urgences et présentant des critères touchant > 3 axes de vulnérabilités sur les 5 axes reconnus habituellement (déterminants somatiques, de santé mentale, comportemental, social, de consommation de soins). Les patients inclus ont été soit signalés par le personnel médico-infirmier des urgences, soit dépistés par une équipe pluridisciplinaire (2 infirmières, 1 assistant social, 1 médecin) durant les jours ouvrables du 1.9.2010 au 14.12.2010.Résultats: 75 patients ont été inclus (65 % d'hommes). La moyenne d'âge était de 43 ans. 59 % étaient des migrants en provenance de : Europe (22 %), Afrique (22 %), Asie (12 %), Amériques du Sud (6 %) et du Nord (1 %). Les vulnérabilités les plus fréquentes étaient: somatiques 76 % (maladies aiguës/chroniques sévères 50 %, mauvaise adhérence thérapeutique 40 %), liées à la santé mentale 65 % (troubles anxieux et dépressifs 54 %), comportementales 80 % (addictions aux substances 73 %), sociales 93 % (absence de domicile fixe 31 %, absence d'assurance-maladie 15 %, barrières linguistiques 24 %, à l'assistance sociale 46 %) et consommation de soins (> 4 visites aux urgences/an 57 %, absence de médecin de premier recours 33 %). La charge de travail moyenne pour orienter ces patients vers des structures de santé primaire était de 3 heures/cas. Les interventions ont été d'évaluer le réseau de soins déjà impliqué (98 %), de réorienter dans le réseau ambulatoire (64 %) ou vers les services sociaux (37 %).Conclusion: Les vulnérabilités multiples sont relativement peu fréquentes dans notre service d'urgence mais leur complexité requiert des ressources qui dépassent ce que peuvent offrir des équipes de soins habituelles aux urgences. Une prise en charge individuelle par une équipe pluridisciplinaire est susceptible de fournir ces ressources et de réorienter ces patients vers des structures ambulatoires adaptées à leurs besoins.

Cardiopathies congénitales de l'âge adulte: nouvelle population de patients, prise en charge multidisciplinaire [Adults with congenital heart diseases: a growing population, a multidisciplinary approach].

Untill recently, congenital heart disease was considered as a childhood's disease. With improvement in pediatric survival, adults with a congenital heart disease (ACHD) represent an emerging group of patients who need specialized medical care. In 2010, the ESC published newguidelines on global and specific management of adults with congenital heart disease. ACHD centers organize appropriate medical care for these patients, promote specialist training and national scientific research in collaboration with other national ACHD centers.

The surface charge of trypanosomatids of the genus trypanosoma

Cell electrophoresis was used for determionation of the electrophoretic mobility (EPM) of epimastigo and trypamastigote forms of several isolates of Trypanosoma cruzi and some stocks of other members of the Schizotrypanum subgenus, such as T. dionisii, T. vespertilionis and T. myoti. The EPM of T. bruceli, T. rangeli, and T. conorhini was also determined. The results obtained show that the EPM values con be useful to distinguish the parasites.

Geography of resonances and Arnold diffusion in a priori unstable Hamiltonian systems

"Vegeu el resum a l'inici del document del fitxer adjunt."

Co-movements in Real Effective Exchange Rates: Evidence from the Dynamic Hierarchical Factor Model

We analyze and quantify co-movements in real effective exchange rates while considering the regional location of countries. More specifically, using the dynamic hierarchical factor model (Moench et al. (2011)), we decompose exchange rate movements into several latent components; worldwide and two regional factors as well as country-specific elements. Then, we provide evidence that the worldwide common factor is closely related to monetary policies in large advanced countries while regional common factors tend to be captured by those in the rest of the countries in a region. However, a substantial proportion of the variation in the real exchange rates is reported to be country-specific; even in Europe country-specific movements exceed worldwide and regional common factors.

Currency Forecast Errors at Times of Low Interest Rates: Evidence from Survey Data on the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate

Using survey expectations data and Markov-switching models, this paper evaluates the characteristics and evolution of investors' forecast errors about the yen/dollar exchange rate. Since our model is derived from the uncovered interest rate parity (UIRP) condition and our data cover a period of low interest rates, this study is also related to the forward premium puzzle and the currency carry trade strategy. We obtain the following results. First, with the same forecast horizon, exchange rate forecasts are homogeneous among different industry types, but within the same industry, exchange rate forecasts differ if the forecast time horizon is different. In particular, investors tend to undervalue the future exchange rate for long term forecast horizons; however, in the short run they tend to overvalue the future exchange rate. Second, while forecast errors are found to be partly driven by interest rate spreads, evidence against the UIRP is provided regardless of the forecasting time horizon; the forward premium puzzle becomes more significant in shorter term forecasting errors. Consistent with this finding, our coefficients on interest rate spreads provide indirect evidence of the yen carry trade over only a short term forecast horizon. Furthermore, the carry trade seems to be active when there is a clear indication that the interest rate will be low in the future.

Price Transmission and Effects of Exchange Rates on Domestic Commodity Prices via Offshore and Currency Hedging

The framework presents how trading in the foreign commodity futures market and the forward exchange market can affect the optimal spot positions of domestic commodity producers and traders. It generalizes the models of Kawai and Zilcha (1986) and Kofman and Viaene (1991) to allow both intermediate and final commodities to be traded in the international and futures markets, and the exporters/importers to face production shock, domestic factor costs and a random price. Applying mean-variance expected utility, we find that a rise in the expected exchange rate can raise both supply and demand for commodities and reduce domestic prices if the exchange rate elasticity of supply is greater than that of demand. Whether higher volatilities of exchange rate and foreign futures price can reduce the optimal spot position of domestic traders depends on the correlation between the exchange rate and the foreign futures price. Even though the forward exchange market is unbiased, and there is no correlation between commodity prices and exchange rates, the exchange rate can still affect domestic trading and prices through offshore hedging and international trade if the traders are interested in their profit in domestic currency. It illustrates how the world prices and foreign futures prices of commodities and their volatility can be transmitted to the domestic market as well as the dynamic relationship between intermediate and final goods prices. The equilibrium prices depends on trader behaviour i.e. who trades or does not trade in the foreign commodity futures and domestic forward currency markets. The empirical result applying a two-stage-least-squares approach to Thai rice and rubber prices supports the theoretical result.

Exchange Rate Predictability in a Changing World

An expanding literature articulates the view that Taylor rules are helpful in predicting exchange rates. In a changing world however, Taylor rule parameters may be subject to structural instabilities, for example during the Global Financial Crisis. This paper forecasts exchange rates using such Taylor rules with Time Varying Parameters (TVP) estimated by Bayesian methods. In core out-of-sample results, we improve upon a random walk benchmark for at least half, and for as many as eight out of ten, of the currencies considered. This contrasts with a constant parameter Taylor rule model that yields a more limited improvement upon the benchmark. In further results, Purchasing Power Parity and Uncovered Interest Rate Parity TVP models beat a random walk benchmark, implying our methods have some generality in exchange rate prediction.

Measuring the Euro-Dollar Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate using the Unobserved Components Model

This paper employs an unobserved component model that incorporates a set of economic fundamentals to obtain the Euro-Dollar permanent equilibrium exchange rates (PEER) for the period 1975Q1 to 2008Q4. The results show that for most of the sample period, the Euro-Dollar exchange rate closely followed the values implied by the PEER. The only significant deviations from the PEER occurred in the years immediately before and after the introduction of the single European currency. The forecasting exercise shows that incorporating economic fundamentals provides a better long-run exchange rate forecasting performance than a random walk process.

Hypertension pulmonaire associée aux maladies du coeur gauche: quelle définition et quelle prise en charge en 2013 [Pulmonary hypertension in left heart disease: how to define it and how to manage it in 2013?].

Pulmonary hypertension is a frequent complication of left heart disease arising from a wide range of cardiac disorders and is associated with poor prognosis. Its pathophysiology is complex with both passive mechanisms of elevated filling pressures in left cavities and occasionally reactive mechanisms of arterial vasoconstriction and remodelling to interplay. This stage, called <out-of-proportions> pulmonary hypertension, further worsens the heart failure patients' prognosis but is still a matter of debate concerning the criteria to apply for its diagnosis and concerning the best way to manage it. This article gives an overview of the importance and pathophysiology of pulmonary hypertension associated with left heart disease, and discusses the challenges associated with its diagnosis and treatment.

On the Sources of Uncertainty in Exchange Rate Predictability

We analyse the role of time-variation in coefficients and other sources of uncertainty in exchange rate forecasting regressions. Our techniques incorporate the notion that the relevant set of predictors and their corresponding weights, change over time. We find that predictive models which allow for sudden rather than smooth, changes in coefficients significantly beat the random walk benchmark in out-of-sample forecasting exercise. Using innovative variance decomposition scheme, we identify uncertainty in coefficients' estimation and uncertainty about the precise degree of coefficients' variability, as the main factors hindering models' forecasting performance. The uncertainty regarding the choice of the predictor is small.

Transaction Costs and Institutions: Investments in Exchange

This paper proposes a simple model for understanding transaction costs for their composition, size and policy implications. We distinguish between investments in institutions that facilitate exchange and the cost of conducting exchange itself. Institutional quality and market size are determined by the decisions of risk averse agents and conditions are discussed under which the efficient allocation may be decentralized. We highlight a number of differences with models where transaction costs are exogenous, including the implications for taxation and measurement issues.

Violence domestique: guide pratique. Améliorer la prise en charge des femmes concernées

[Table des matières] Généralités sur la violence domestique: Définition de la violence domestique, Prise en charge: possibilités et limites, Dépistage de la violence domestique, Signes et symptômes évoquant un contexte de violence domestique &. La situation spécifique des femmes migrantes. - Documentation: Marche à suivre: check-list, Consentement, Constat médical en cas de violence domestique, Examen physique, Attestation. - Annexes: Bases légales, Gynécologie des enfants et adolescentes, Caisse maladie et éléments financiers, Coordonnées des centres spécialisés, Centres cantonaux d'aide aux victimes d'infraction (Centres LAVI), Littérature et liens. - Suppléments: Marche à suivre: check-list, Spécimens de constat médical [Editorial (extrait)] Le groupe de travail «Abus sexuels au cabinet médical» - constitué voici quelques années par la Société Suisse de Gynécologie et d'Obstétrique - s'est vu chargé par le président de la société d'élaborer un guide pratique pour aborder la violence domestique. En Suisse, des études d'envergure montrent qu'une femme sur quatre au cours de sa vie et une femme sur dix durant les !" derniers mois sont confrontées à la violence. Ces études révèlent un lien étroit entre de nombreux problèmes de santé et le fait de subir de la violence conjugale. La moitié des femmes touchées présentent des problèmes de santé physiques et deux tiers des problèmes de santé psychiques ou des troubles d'ordre psychosomatiques. Et ce sont ces problèmes qui amèneront les femmes à consulter leur médecin. Le groupe de travail poursuit l'objectif d'améliorer la prise en charge des femmes concernées par la violence. En effet, aussi longtemps que la cause réelle des symptômes et des plaintes, à savoir le fait de vivre dans un contexte de violence, n'est pas dépistée, aucune mesure thérapeutique ne pourra avoir d'impact durable sur la santé de la patiente. Les femmes concernées par la violence domestique s'adressent de préférence à leur médecin. De ce fait, les gynécologues, au sein de leur cabinet et dans les cliniques, vont entrer en contact avec ces femmes. Il est donc important que chacun dispose des connaissances nécessaires à leur prise en charge.