Spatial distribution of leprosy in areas of risk in Vitoria, State of Espirito Santo, Brazil, 2005 to 2009

Introduction Leprosy remains a relevant public health issue in Brazil. The objective of this study was to analyze the spatial distribution of new cases of leprosy and to detect areas with higher risks of disease in the City of Vitória. Methods The study was ecologically based on the spatial distribution of leprosy in the City of Vitória, State of Espírito Santo between 2005 and 2009. The data sources used came from the available records of the State Health Secretary of Espírito Santo. A global and local empirical Bayesian method was used in the spatial analysis to produce a leprosy risk estimation, and the fluctuation effect was smoothed from the detection coefficients. Results The study used thematic maps to illustrate that leprosy is distributed heterogeneously between the neighborhoods and that it is possible to identify areas with high risk of disease. The Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.926 (p = 0.001) for the Local Method indicated highly correlated coefficients. The Moran index was calculated to evaluate correlations between the incidences of adjoining districts. Conclusions We identified the spatial contexts in which there were the highest incidence rates of leprosy in Vitória during the studied period. The results contribute to the knowledge of the spatial distribution of leprosy in the City of Vitória, which can help establish more cost-effective control strategies because they indicate specific regions and priority planning activities that can interfere with the transmission chain.

Connect to success- consulting program of the U.S. embassy Lisbon creation of a business plan for “Quinta dos I’s”

The purpose of this project is to analyse and evaluate if the rural tourism cottage Quinta dos I’s will be profitable within the first five years of operation. It starts with a brief description of the business, followed by an industry analysis of the rural tourism market in Portugal and an intensive competitor analysis to evaluate Quinta dos I’s’ competitive advantages. The project then defines a marketing plan to generate awareness and establish the cottage in the market. Finally, a financial analysis is performed to examine the outcome of Quinta dos I’s’ recommended strategic activities. The results of this project show that the cottage is profitable after the first year of operation and expects to grow annually.

Valuing an offshore exploration project through real options analysis

This thesis applied real options analysis to the valuation of an offshore oil exploration project, taking into consideration the several options typically faced by the management team of these projects. The real options process is developed under technical and price uncertainties, where it is considered that the mean reversion stochastic process is more adequate to describe the movement of oil price throught time. The valuation is realized to two case scenarios, being the first a simplified approach to develop the intuition of the used concepts, and the later a more complete cases that is resolved using both the binomial and trinomial processes to describe oil price movement. Real options methodology demonstrated to be capable of assessing and valuing the projects options, and of overcoming common capital budgeting methodologies flexibility limitation. The added value of the application of real options is evident, but so is the method's increased complexity, which adversely influence its widespread implementation.

Application of wavelets to the study of political history

\The idea that social processes develop in a cyclical manner is somewhat like a `Lorelei'. Researchers are lured to it because of its theoretical promise, only to become entangled in (if not wrecked by) messy problems of empirical inference. The reasoning leading to hypotheses of some kind of cycle is often elegant enough, yet the data from repeated observations rarely display the supposed cyclical pattern. (...) In addition, various `schools' seem to exist which frequently arrive at di erent conclusions on the basis of the same data." (van der Eijk and Weber 1987:271). Much of the empirical controversies around these issues arise because of three distinct problems: the coexistence of cycles of di erent periodicities, the possibility of transient cycles and the existence of cycles without xed periodicity. In some cases, there are no reasons to expect any of these phenomena to be relevant. Seasonality caused by Christmas is one such example (Wen 2002). In such cases, researchers mostly rely on spectral analysis and Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models to estimate the periodicity of cycles.1 However, and this is particularly true in social sciences, sometimes there are good theoretical reasons to expect irregular cycles. In such cases, \the identi cation of periodic movement in something like the vote is a daunting task all by itself. When a pendulum swings with an irregular beat (frequency), and the extent of the swing (amplitude) is not constant, mathematical functions like sine-waves are of no use."(Lebo and Norpoth 2007:73) In the past, this di culty has led to two di erent approaches. On the one hand, some researchers dismissed these methods altogether, relying on informal alternatives that do not meet rigorous standards of statistical inference. Goldstein (1985 and 1988), studying the severity of Great power wars is one such example. On the other hand, there are authors who transfer the assumptions of spectral analysis (and ARMA models) into fundamental assumptions about the nature of social phenomena. This type of argument was produced by Beck (1991) who, in a reply to Goldstein (1988), claimed that only \ xed period models are meaningful models of cyclic phenomena".We argue that wavelet analysis|a mathematical framework developed in the mid-1980s (Grossman and Morlet 1984; Goupillaud et al. 1984) | is a very viable alternative to study cycles in political time-series. It has the advantage of staying close to the frequency domain approach of spectral analysis while addressing its main limitations. Its principal contribution comes from estimating the spectral characteristics of a time-series as a function of time, thus revealing how its di erent periodic components may change over time. The rest of article proceeds as follows. In the section \Time-frequency Analysis", we study in some detail the continuous wavelet transform and compare its time-frequency properties with the more standard tool for that purpose, the windowed Fourier transform. In the section \The British Political Pendulum", we apply wavelet analysis to essentially the same data analyzed by Lebo and Norpoth (2007) and Merrill, Grofman and Brunell (2011) and try to provide a more nuanced answer to the same question discussed by these authors: do British electoral politics exhibit cycles? Finally, in the last section, we present a concise list of future directions.

As potencialidades pedagógicas da WebQuest no ensino e aprendizagem da Geologia: um estudo com alunos do 11.º ano no tema "Principais etapas de formação das rochas sedimentares"

Relatório de estágio de mestrado em Ensino de Biologia e Geologia no 3.º Ciclo do Ensino Básico e no Ensino Secundário

Listening to the public: enacting power : citizen access, Standing and influence in public participation discourses

Public participation in environmental governance is typically associated with citizen access to power despite many closures and limitations having been identified in participatory processes. This article proposes an analytical framework to analyse discursive practices involved in public consultation processes. Critical Discourse Analysis is used to examine and appraise citizens’ access, standing and influence. We apply that framework to a ‘notice and comment’ process on a hydroelectric power plan in Portugal and show that it was discursively managed to justify the decision of constructing 10 large dams and to reject critical or alternative views. Citizens’ access, standing and influence were constrained through diverse discursive practices which (re)produced very unequal power relationsbetween policy proponents and participating individuals. More generally, the article illustrates the potential of Critical Discourse Analysis to assess voice(s) in policy processes. Focusing on argumentative, interactional and rhetorical levels, and how they are interwoven in public consultation discourses, the proposed framework is conceivably applicable in other studies.

The use of forensic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon signatures and Compound Ratio Analysis Techniques (CORAT) for the source characterisation of petrogenic/pyrogenic environmental releases.

This study utilised recent developments in forensic aromatic hydrocarbon fingerprint analysis to characterise and identify specific biogenic, pyrogenic and petrogenic contamination. The fingerprinting and data interpretation techniques discussed include the recognition of: The distribution patterns of hydrocarbons (alkylated naphthalene, phenanthrene, dibenzothiophene, fluorene, chrysene and phenol isomers), • Analysis of “source-specific marker” compounds (individual saturated hydrocarbons, including n-alkanes (n-C5 through 0-C40) • Selected benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylene isomers (BTEX), • The recalcitrant isoprenoids; pristane and phytane and • The determination of diagnostic ratios of specific petroleum / non-petroleum constituents, and the application of various statistical and numerical analysis tools. An unknown sample from the Irish Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for origin characterisation was subjected to analysis by gas chromatography utilising both flame ionisation and mass spectral detection techniques in comparison to known reference materials. The percentage of the individual Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAIIs) and biomarker concentrations in the unknown sample were normalised to the sum of the analytes and the results were compared with the corresponding results with a range of reference materials. In addition, to the determination of conventional diagnostic PAH and biomarker ratios, a number of “source-specific markers” isomeric PAHs within the same alkylation levels were determined, and their relative abundance ratios were computed in order to definitively identify and differentiate the various sources. Statistical logarithmic star plots were generated from both sets of data to give a pictorial representation of the comparison between the unknown sample and reference products. The study successfully characterised the unknown sample as being contaminated with a “coal tar” and clearly demonstrates the future role of compound ratio analysis (CORAT) in the identification of possible source contaminants.

Effects of Yoga in Patients with Chronic Heart Failure: A Meta-Analysis

The use of yoga as an effective cardiac rehabilitation in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF) remains controversial. We performed a meta-analysis to examine the effects of yoga on exercise capacity and health-related quality of life (HRQOL) in patients with CHF. Methods: We searched MEDLINE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Excerpta Medica database, LILACS, Physiotherapy Evidence Database, The Scientific Electronic Library Online, and Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health (from the earliest date available to December 2013) for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) examining the effects of yoga versus exercise and/or of yoga versus control on exercise capacity (peakVO2) and quality-of-life (HRQOL) in CHF. Two reviewers selected studies independently. Weighted mean differences (WMDs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated, and heterogeneity was assessed using the I2 test. Two studies met the selection criteria (total: 30 yoga and 29 control patients). The results suggested that yoga compared with control had a positive impact on peak VO2 and HRQOL. Peak VO2, WMD (3.87 95% CI: 1.95 to 5.80), and global HRQOL standardized mean differences (-12.46 95% CI: -22.49 to -2.43) improved in the yoga group compared to the control group. Yoga enhances peak VO2 and HRQOL in patients with CHF and could be considered for inclusion in cardiac rehabilitation programs. Larger RCTs are required to further investigate the effects of yoga in patients with CHF.

Shifts in composition of avian communities related to temperate-grassland afforestation in southeastern South America

Afforestation of temperate grasslands with fast-growing trees for industrial pulpwood production is spreading in South America. Despite high afforestation rates resulting from governmental policies that stimulate pulpwood production in grasslands of southern Brazil and Uruguay, the impact of this activity on biodiversity remains to be properly assessed. We used an Impact-Reference study design to evaluate how grassland afforestation affects the composition of grassland bird assemblages. We sampled eucalyptus plantations and neighboring natural grasslands in southern Brazil from 2006-2009, and relied on nested sampling and analysis to separate the effects of afforestation from the natural variability of grasslands. We recorded a significant difference in composition between assemblages from grasslands and tree plantations. Species adapted to open, treeless areas tended to be negatively affected in relation to edge or forest birds in eucalyptus plantations. Afforestation is systematically replacing the bird assemblage of hilltop grasslands by a collection of common edge and forest species that occur in nearby riverine and hillside forests. Although most grassland birds negatively affected by tree plantations are common and widespread, observed and predicted afforestation rates in southeastern South America may result in regional population reductions in the near future.

Estudi de casos pel control de síntesi d’instruments musicals virtuals mitjançant la veu cantada

Report for the scientific sojourn carried out at the Music Technology Area (Sound Processing and Control Lab), Faculty of Music, McGill University, Montreal, Canada, from October to December 2005.The aim of this research is to study the singing voice for controlling virtual musical instrument synthesis. It includes analysis and synthesis algorithms based on spectral audio processing. After digitalising the acoustic voice signal in the computer, a number of expressive descriptors of the singer are extracted. This process is achieved synchronously, thus all the nuance of the singer performance have been tracked. In a second stage, the extracted parameters are mapped to a sound synthesizer, the so-called digital musical instruments. In order achieve it, several tests with music students of the Faculty of Music, McGill University have been developed. These experiments have contributed to evaluate the system and to derive new control strategies to integrate: clarinet synthesis, bass guitar, visual representation of voice signals.

The added value from adopting a CGE approach to analyse changes in environmental trade balances

The application of multi-region environmental input-output (IO) analysis to the problem of accounting for emissions generation (and/or resource use) under different accounting principles has become increasingly common in the ecological and environmental economics literature in particular, with applications at the international and interregional subnational level. However, while environmental IO analysis is invaluable in accounting for pollution flows in the single time period that the accounts relate to, it is limited when the focus is on modelling the impacts of any marginal change in activity. This is because a conventional demand-driven IO model assumes an entirely passive supply-side in the economy (i.e. all supply is infinitely elastic) and is further restricted by the assumption of universal Leontief (fixed proportions) technology implied by the use of the A and multiplier matrices. Where analysis of marginal changes in activity is required, extension from an IO accounting framework to a more flexible interregional computable general equilibrium (CGE) approach, where behavioural relationships can be modelled in a more realistic and theory-consistent manner, is appropriate. Our argument is illustrated by comparing the results of introducing a positive demand stimulus in the UK economy using IO and CGE interregional models of Scotland and the rest of the UK. In the case of the latter, we demonstrate how more theory consistent modelling of both demand and supply side behaviour at the regional and national levels effect model results, including the impact on the interregional CO2 ‘trade balance’.

The twist, writhe and overall shape of supercoiled DNA change during counterion-induced transition from a loosely to a tightly interwound superhelix. Possible implications for DNA structure in vivo.

A cryo-electron microscopy study of supercoiled DNA molecules freely suspended in cryo-vitrified buffer was combined with Monte Carlo simulations and gel electrophoretic analysis to investigate the role of intersegmental electrostatic repulsion in determining the shape of supercoiled DNA molecules. It is demonstrated here that a decrease of DNA-DNA repulsion by increasing concentrations of counterions causes a higher fraction of the linking number deficit to be partitioned into writhe. When counterions reach concentrations likely to be present under in vivo conditions, naturally supercoiled plasmids adopt a tightly interwound conformation. In these tightly supercoiled DNA molecules the opposing segments of interwound superhelix seem to directly contact each other. This form of supercoiling, where two DNA helices interact laterally, may represent an important functional state of DNA. In the particular case of supercoiled minicircles (178 bp) the delta Lk = -2 topoisomers undergo a sharp structural transition from almost planar circles in low salt buffers to strongly writhed "figure-eight" conformations in buffers containing neutralizing concentrations of counterions. Possible implications of this observed structural transition in DNA are discussed.

Performance analysis and tuning in multicore environments

Performance analysis is the task of monitor the behavior of a program execution. The main goal is to find out the possible adjustments that might be done in order improve the performance. To be able to get that improvement it is necessary to find the different causes of overhead. Nowadays we are already in the multicore era, but there is a gap between the level of development of the two main divisions of multicore technology (hardware and software). When we talk about multicore we are also speaking of shared memory systems, on this master thesis we talk about the issues involved on the performance analysis and tuning of applications running specifically in a shared Memory system. We move one step ahead to take the performance analysis to another level by analyzing the applications structure and patterns. We also present some tools specifically addressed to the performance analysis of OpenMP multithread application. At the end we present the results of some experiments performed with a set of OpenMP scientific application.

The use of classification and regression trees to predict the likelihood of seasonal influenza.

Background Individual signs and symptoms are of limited value for the diagnosis of influenza. Objective To develop a decision tree for the diagnosis of influenza based on a classification and regression tree (CART) analysis. Methods Data from two previous similar cohort studies were assembled into a single dataset. The data were randomly divided into a development set (70%) and a validation set (30%). We used CART analysis to develop three models that maximize the number of patients who do not require diagnostic testing prior to treatment decisions. The validation set was used to evaluate overfitting of the model to the training set. Results Model 1 has seven terminal nodes based on temperature, the onset of symptoms and the presence of chills, cough and myalgia. Model 2 was a simpler tree with only two splits based on temperature and the presence of chills. Model 3 was developed with temperature as a dichotomous variable (≥38°C) and had only two splits based on the presence of fever and myalgia. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCC) for the development and validation sets, respectively, were 0.82 and 0.80 for Model 1, 0.75 and 0.76 for Model 2 and 0.76 and 0.77 for Model 3. Model 2 classified 67% of patients in the validation group into a high- or low-risk group compared with only 38% for Model 1 and 54% for Model 3. Conclusions A simple decision tree (Model 2) classified two-thirds of patients as low or high risk and had an AUROCC of 0.76. After further validation in an independent population, this CART model could support clinical decision making regarding influenza, with low-risk patients requiring no further evaluation for influenza and high-risk patients being candidates for empiric symptomatic or drug therapy.

Split sex ratios in the social Hymenoptera: a meta-analysis

The study of sex allocation in social Hymenoptera (ants, bees, and wasps) provides an excellent opportunity for testing kin-selection theory and studying conflict resolution. A queen-worker conflict over sex allocation is expected because workers are more related to sisters than to brothers, whereas queens are equally related to daughters and sons. If workers fully control sex allocation, split sex ratio theory predicts that colonies with relatively high or low relatedness asymmetry (the relatedness of workers to females divided by the relatedness of workers to males) should specialize in females or males, respectively. We performed a meta-analysis to assess the magnitude of adaptive sex allocation biasing by workers and degree of support for split sex ratio theory in the social Hymenoptera. Overall, variation in relatedness asymmetry (due to mate number or queen replacement) and variation in queen number (which also affects relatedness asymmetry in some conditions) explained 20.9% and 5% of the variance in sex allocation among colonies, respectively. These results show that workers often bias colony sex allocation in their favor as predicted by split sex ratio theory, even if their control is incomplete and a large part of the variation among colonies has other causes. The explanatory power of split sex ratio theory was close to that of local mate competition and local resource competition in the few species of social Hymenoptera where these factors apply. Hence, three of the most successful theories explaining quantitative variation in sex allocation are based on kin selection.