Evaluating adjusted forcing and model spread for historical and future scenarios in the CMIP5 generation of climate models

We utilize energy budget diagnostics from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) to evaluate the models' climate forcing since preindustrial times employing an established regression technique. The climate forcing evaluated this way, termed the adjusted forcing (AF), includes a rapid adjustment term associated with cloud changes and other tropospheric and land-surface changes. We estimate a 2010 total anthropogenic and natural AF from CMIP5 models of 1.9 ± 0.9 W m−2 (5–95% range). The projected AF of the Representative Concentration Pathway simulations are lower than their expected radiative forcing (RF) in 2095 but agree well with efficacy weighted forcings from integrated assessment models. The smaller AF, compared to RF, is likely due to cloud adjustment. Multimodel time series of temperature change and AF from 1850 to 2100 have large intermodel spreads throughout the period. The intermodel spread of temperature change is principally driven by forcing differences in the present day and climate feedback differences in 2095, although forcing differences are still important for model spread at 2095. We find no significant relationship between the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of a model and its 2003 AF, in contrast to that found in older models where higher ECS models generally had less forcing. Given the large present-day model spread, there is no indication of any tendency by modelling groups to adjust their aerosol forcing in order to produce observed trends. Instead, some CMIP5 models have a relatively large positive forcing and overestimate the observed temperature change.

Causes of plasma flow bursts and dayside auroral transients: An evaluation of two models Invoking reconnection pulses and changes in the Y component of the magnetosheath field

Longitudinal flow bursts observed by the European Incoherent Scatter (EISCAT) radar, in association with dayside auroral transients observed from Svalbard, have been interpreted as resulting from pulses of enhanced reconnection at the dayside magnetopause. However, an alternative model has recently been proposed for a steady rate of magnetopause reconnection, in which the bursts of longitudinal flow are due to increases in the field line curvature force, associated with the By component of the magnetosheath field. We here evaluate these two models, using observations on January 20, 1990, by EISCAT and a 630-nm all-sky camera at Ny Ålesund. For both models, we predict the behavior of both the dayside flows and the 630-nm emissions on newly opened field lines. It is shown that the signatures of steady reconnection and magnetosheath By changes could possibly resemble the observed 630-nm auroral events, but only for certain locations of the observing site, relative to the ionospheric projection of the reconnection X line: however, in such cases, the flow bursts would be seen between the 630-nm transients and not within them. On the other hand, the model of reconnection rate pulses predicts that the flows will be enhanced within each 630-nm transient auroral event. The observations on January 20, 1990, are shown to be consistent with the model of enhanced reconnection rate pulses over a background level and inconsistent with the effects of periodic enhancements of the magnitude of the magnetosheath By component. We estimate that the reconnection rate within the pulses would have to be at least an order of magnitude larger than the background level between the pulses.

Robust comparison of climate models with observations using blended land air and ocean sea surface temperatures

The level of agreement between climate model simulations and observed surface temperature change is a topic of scientific and policy concern. While the Earth system continues to accumulate energy due to anthropogenic and other radiative forcings, estimates of recent surface temperature evolution fall at the lower end of climate model projections. Global mean temperatures from climate model simulations are typically calculated using surface air temperatures, while the corresponding observations are based on a blend of air and sea surface temperatures. This work quantifies a systematic bias in model-observation comparisons arising from differential warming rates between sea surface temperatures and surface air temperatures over oceans. A further bias arises from the treatment of temperatures in regions where the sea ice boundary has changed. Applying the methodology of the HadCRUT4 record to climate model temperature fields accounts for 38% of the discrepancy in trend between models and observations over the period 1975–2014.

Assessment and improvement of biotransfer models to cow’s milk and beef used in exposure assessment tools for organic pollutants

The aim of this study was to assess and improve the accuracy of biotransfer models for the organic pollutants (PCBs, PCDD/Fs, PBDEs, PFCAs, and pesticides) into cow’s milk and beef used in human exposure assessment. Metabolic rate in cattle is known as a key parameter for this biotransfer, however few experimental data and no simulation methods are currently available. In this research, metabolic rate was estimated using existing QSAR biodegradation models of microorganisms (BioWIN) and fish (EPI-HL and IFS-HL). This simulated metabolic rate was then incorporated into the mechanistic cattle biotransfer models (RAIDAR, ACC-HUMAN, OMEGA, and CKow). The goodness of fit tests showed that RAIDAR, ACC-HUMAN, OMEGA model performances were significantly improved using either of the QSARs when comparing the new model outputs to observed data. The CKow model is the only one that separates the processes in the gut and liver. This model showed the lowest residual error of all the models tested when the BioWIN model was used to represent the ruminant metabolic process in the gut and the two fish QSARs were used to represent the metabolic process in the liver. Our testing included EUSES and CalTOX which are KOW-regression models that are widely used in regulatory assessment. New regressions based on the simulated rate of the two metabolic processes are also proposed as an alternative to KOW-regression models for a screening risk assessment. The modified CKow model is more physiologically realistic, but has equivalent usability to existing KOW-regression models for estimating cattle biotransfer of organic pollutants.

A constrained recursive least squares algorithm for adaptive combination of multiple models

In this paper, we develop a novel constrained recursive least squares algorithm for adaptively combining a set of given multiple models. With data available in an online fashion, the linear combination coefficients of submodels are adapted via the proposed algorithm.We propose to minimize the mean square error with a forgetting factor, and apply the sum to one constraint to the combination parameters. Moreover an l1-norm constraint to the combination parameters is also applied with the aim to achieve sparsity of multiple models so that only a subset of models may be selected into the final model. Then a weighted l2-norm is applied as an approximation to the l1-norm term. As such at each time step, a closed solution of the model combination parameters is available. The contribution of this paper is to derive the proposed constrained recursive least squares algorithm that is computational efficient by exploiting matrix theory. The effectiveness of the approach has been demonstrated using both simulated and real time series examples.

Curiously composite structures of a retrotransposon and a complex repeat associated with chromosome ends of Rhynchosciara americana (Diptera: Sciaridae)

In Drosophila, telomere retrotransposons counterbalance the loss of telomeric DNA. The exceptional mechanism of telomere recovery characterized in Drosophila has not been found in lower dipterans (Nematocera). However, a retroelement resembling a telomere transposon and termed ""RaTART"" has been described in the nematoceran Rhynchosciara americana. In this work, DNA and protein sequence analyses, DNA cloning, and chromosomal localization of probes obtained either by PCR or by screening a genomic library were carried out in order to examine additional features of this retroelement. The analyses performed raise the possibility that RaTART represents a genomic clone composed of distinct repetitive elements, one of which is likely to be responsible for its apparent enrichment at chromosome ends. RaTART sequence in addition allowed to assess a novel subtelomeric region of R. americana chromosomes that was analyzed in this work after subcloning a DNA fragment from a phage insert. It contains a complex repeat that is located in the vicinity of simple and complex tandem repeats characterized previously. Quantification data suggest that the copy number of the repeat is significantly lower than that observed for the ribosomal DNA in the salivary gland of R. americana. A short insertion of the RaTART was identified in the cloned segment, which hybridized preferentially to subtelomeres. Like RaTART, it displays truncated sequences related to distinct retrotransposons, one of which has a conceptual translation product with significant identity with an endonuclease from a lepidopteran retrotransposon. The composite structure of this DNA stretch probably reflects mobile element activity in the subtelomeric region analyzed in this work.

Global analytic regularity for structures of co-rank one

We consider real analytic involutive structures V, of co-rank one, defined on a real analytic paracompact orientable manifold M. To each such structure we associate certain connected subsets of M which we call the level sets of V. We prove that analytic regularity propagates along them. With a further assumption on the level sets of V we characterize the global analytic hypoellipticity of a differential operator naturally associated to V. As an application we study a case of tube structures.

Specific surface area and structures of aluminas from fibrillar pseudoboehmite

By heating powders of the aluminum monohydroxide fibrillar pseudoboehmite from 200 degrees C to 1400 degrees C several high surface area aluminas are prepared and characterized by X-ray diffraction and electron optical methods. Aqueous sols with pseudoboehmite fibrils of different lengths were dried by two methods: at room temperature and spray-dried. The following aluminas were obtained after treatment of the powders at increasing temperatures and having a range of specific surface areas: gamma-Al(2)O(3) (470 degrees C - 770 degrees C; 179 m(2)/g 497 m(2)/g); delta-Al(2)O(3) (770 degrees C - 930 degrees C; 156 m(2)/g - 230 m(2)/g); theta-Al(2)O(3) (930 degrees C - 1050 degrees C; 11 m(2)/g - 200 m(2)/g); alpha-Al(2)O(3) (1050 degrees C - 1400 degrees C; 2 m(2)/g - 17 m(2)/g). Spray-dried powders, fired at the same temperature than the ground powders, showed higher specific surface areas. The higher surface area alumina have values of the same order of magnitude of the commercial ""ad-cat"" aluminas.

Magnetic structures of quaternary intermetallic borocarbides RCo(2)B(2)C (R = Dy, Ho, Er)

The magnetic structures of the title compounds have been studied by neutron diffraction. In contrast to the isomorphous RNi(2)B(2)C compounds, wherein a variety of exotic incommensurate modulated structures has been observed, the magnetic structure of ErCo(2)B(2)C is found to be a collinear antiferromagnet with k = (12, 0, 12) while those of HoCo(2)B(2)C and DyCo(2)B(2)C are observed to be simple ferromagnets. For all studied compounds, the moments are found to be confined within the basal plane and their magnitudes are comparable to the values obtained from the low-temperature isothermal magnetization measurements. The absence of modulated magnetic structures in the RCo(2)B(2)C series (for ErCo(2)B(2)C, verified down to 50 mK) is attributed to the quenching of the Fermi surface nesting features.

Selective Wrapping and Supramolecular Structures of Polyfluorene-Carbon Nanotube Hybrids

We report on the photophysical properties of single-walled carbon nanotube (SWNT) suspensions In toluene solutions of poly[9,9-dioctylfluorenyl-2,7-diyl](PFO). Steady-state and time-resolved photoluminescence spectroscopy in the near-infrared and visible spectral regions are used to study the interaction of the dispersed SWNTs with the wrapped polymer. Molecular dynamics simulations of the PFO-SWNT hybrids in toluene were carried out to evaluate the energetics of different wrapping geometries. The simulated fluorescence spectra in the visible region were obtained by the quantum chemical ZINDO-CI method, using a sampling of structures obtained from the dynamics trajectories. The tested schemes consider polymer chains aligned along the nanotube axis, where chirality has a minimal effect, or forming helical structures, where a preference for high chiral angles is evidenced. Moreover, toluene affects the polymer structure favoring the helical conformation. Simulations show that the most stable hybrid system is the PFO-wrapped (8,6) nanotube, in agreement with the experimentally observed selectivity.

Synthesis and Crystal Structures of Octahedral Sn(IV) Complexes Prepared from SnCl(2)center dot 2H(2)O and 2-Hydroxyacetophenone (S-benzydithiocarbazate) Ligand (H(2)L)

Two coordination octahedral Sn(IV) complexes [Sn(L)(2)] and cis-[SnCl(2)(L)(dmso)], where H(2)L is 2-hydroxyacetophenone (S-benzydithiocarbazate), were prepared and characterized by elemental analysis, IR, NMR ((1)H, (13)C), (119)Sn Mossbauer spectroscopies and X-ray diffraction techniques to investigate their structural properties. Both crystallize in the Monoclinic system, with parameters: a = 8.1905(3), b = 30.8811(15), c = 12.8959(7) angstrom, beta = 94.465(3)degrees and Z = 4 for [Sn(L)(2)] and a = 8.5247(2), b = 21.5445(7), c = 12.3706(3) angstrom, beta = 96.932(2)degrees and Z = 4 for cis-[SnCl(2)(L)(dmso)]. In both complexes, the Sn(IV) central atom is coordinated in a distorted octahedral geometry with the thiolate ligand (L(2-)) coordinated via O, N and S atoms. The (119)Sn Mossbauer spectroscopy of the complexes were studied and the results revealed that both complexes posses isomer shift (delta) and quadrupole splitting (Delta), which are almost the same.

On the synthesis and structures of the complexes [RuCl(L)(dppb)(N-N)]PF(6) (L = CO, py or 4-NH(2)py; dppb=1,4-bis(diphenylphosphino)butane; N-N=2,2 `-bipyridine or 1,10-phenanthroline) and [(dppb)(CO)Cl(2)-Ru-pz-RuCl(2)(CO)(dppb)] (pz = pyrazine)

The ""Ru(P-P)"" unit (P-P = diphosphine) is recognized to be an important core in catalytic species for hydrogenation of unsaturated organic substrates. Thus, in this study we synthesized six new complexes containing this core, including the binuclear complex [(dppb)(CO)Cl(2)Ru-pz-RuCl(2)(CO)(dPPb)] (pz = pyrazine) which can be used as a precursor for the synthesis of cationic carbonyl species of general formula [RuCl(CO)(dppb)(N-N)]PF(6) (N-N = diimine). Complexes with the formula (RuCl(py)(dppb)(N-N)]PF(6) were synthesized by exhaustive electrolysis of these carbonyl compounds or from the precursors [RuCl(2)(dppb)(N-N)]. The new complexes were characterized by microanalysis, conductivity measurements, IR and (31)P{(1)H)} NMR spectroscopy, cyclic voltammetry and X-ray crystallography. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Statistical coupling analysis of aspartic proteinases based on crystal structures of the Trichoderma reesei enzyme and its complex with pepstatin A

The crystal structures of an aspartic proteinase from Trichoderma reesei (TrAsP) and of its complex with a competitive inhibitor, pepstatin A, were solved and refined to crystallographic R-factors of 17.9% (R(free)=21.2%) at 1.70 angstrom resolution and 15.81% (R(free) = 19.2%) at 1.85 angstrom resolution, respectively. The three-dimensional structure of TrAsP is similar to structures of other members of the pepsin-like family of aspartic proteinases. Each molecule is folded in a predominantly beta-sheet bilobal structure with the N-terminal and C-terminal domains of about the same size. Structural comparison of the native structure and the TrAsP-pepstatin complex reveals that the enzyme undergoes an induced-fit, rigid-body movement upon inhibitor binding, with the N-terminal and C-terminal lobes tightly enclosing the inhibitor. Upon recognition and binding of pepstatin A, amino acid residues of the enzyme active site form a number of short hydrogen bonds to the inhibitor that may play an important role in the mechanism of catalysis and inhibition. The structures of TrAsP were used as a template for performing statistical coupling analysis of the aspartic protease family. This approach permitted, for the first time, the identification of a network of structurally linked residues putatively mediating conformational changes relevant to the function of this family of enzymes. Statistical coupling analysis reveals coevolved continuous clusters of amino acid residues that extend from the active site into the hydrophobic cores of each of the two domains and include amino acid residues from the flap regions, highlighting the importance of these parts of the protein for its enzymatic activity. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of petrogenetic models for intermediate and silicic plutonic rocks from the Sierra de Valle Fertil-La Huerta, Argentina: Petrologic constraints on the origin of igneous rocks in the Ordovician Famatinian-Puna paleoarc

The whole Valle Fertil-La Huerta section appears as a calc-alkaline plutonic suite typical of a destructive plate margin. New Sr and Nd isotopic whole-rock data and published whole-rock geochemistry suggest that the less-evolved intermediate (dioritic) rocks can be derived by magmatic differentiation, mainly by hornblende + plagioclase +/- Fe-Ti oxide fractional crystallization, from mafic (gabbroic) igneous precursors. Closed-system differentiation, however, cannot produce the typical intermediate (tonalitic) and silicic (granodioritic) plutonic rocks, which requires a preponderant contribution of crustal components. Intermediate and silicic plutonic rocks from Valle Fertil-La Huerta section have formed in a plate subduction setting where the thermal and material input of mantle-derived magmas promoted fusion of fertile metasedimentary rocks and favored mixing of gabbroic or dioritic magmas with crustal granitic melts. Magma mixing is observable in the field and evident in variations of chemical elemental parameters and isotopic ratios, revealing that hybridization coupled with fractionation of magmas took place in the crust. Consideration of the whole-rock geochemical and isotopic data in the context of the Famatinian-Puna magmatic belt as a whole demonstrates that the petrologic model postulated for the Sierra Valle Fertil-La Huerta section has the potential to explain the generation of plutonic and volcanic rocks across the Early Ordovician paleoarc from central and northwestern Argentina. As the petrologic model does not require the intervention of old Precambrian continental crust, the nature of the basement on which thick accretionary turbiditic sequences were deposited remains a puzzling aspect. Discussion in this paper provides insights into the nature of magmatic source rocks and mechanisms of magma generation in Cordilleran-type volcano-plutonic arcs of destructive plate margins. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Some restriction tests in a new class of regression models for proportions

The main purpose of this work is to study the behaviour of Skovgaard`s [Skovgaard, I.M., 2001. Likelihood asymptotics. Scandinavian journal of Statistics 28, 3-32] adjusted likelihood ratio statistic in testing simple hypothesis in a new class of regression models proposed here. The proposed class of regression models considers Dirichlet distributed observations, and the parameters that index the Dirichlet distributions are related to covariates and unknown regression coefficients. This class is useful for modelling data consisting of multivariate positive observations summing to one and generalizes the beta regression model described in Vasconcellos and Cribari-Neto [Vasconcellos, K.L.P., Cribari-Neto, F., 2005. Improved maximum likelihood estimation in a new class of beta regression models. Brazilian journal of Probability and Statistics 19,13-31]. We show that, for our model, Skovgaard`s adjusted likelihood ratio statistics have a simple compact form that can be easily implemented in standard statistical software. The adjusted statistic is approximately chi-squared distributed with a high degree of accuracy. Some numerical simulations show that the modified test is more reliable in finite samples than the usual likelihood ratio procedure. An empirical application is also presented and discussed. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.