Helping the most vulnerable out of the poverty trap and reducing inequality: Policies, strategies, and services for individuals with Autism Spectrum Disorder, including intellectual and neurodevelopmental disabilities: Benchmarking Autism Services Efficacy: BASE Project (Volume 3) Secondary Data analysis

1) Executive Summary
Legislation (Autism Act NI, 2011), a cross-departmental strategy (Autism Strategy 2013-2020) and a first action plan (2013-2016) have been developed in Northern Ireland in order to support individuals and families affected by Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) without a prior thorough baseline assessment of need. At the same time, there are large existing data sets about the population in NI that had never been subjected to a secondary data analysis with regards to data on ASD. This report covers the first comprehensive secondary data analysis and thereby aims to inform future policy and practice.
Following a search of all existing, large-scale, regional or national data sets that were relevant to the lives of individuals and families affected by Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) in Northern Ireland, extensive secondary data analyses were carried out. The focus of these secondary data analyses was to distill any ASD related data from larger generic data sets. The findings are reported for each data set and follow a lifespan perspective, i.e., data related to children is reported first before data related to adults.
Key findings:
Autism Prevalence:
Of children born in 2000 in the UK,
• 0.9% (1:109) were reported to have ASD, when they were 5-year old in 2005;
• 1.8% (1:55) were reported to have ASD, when they were 7-years old in 2007;
• 3.5% (1:29) were reported to have ASD, when they were 11-year old in 2011.
In mainstream schools in Northern Ireland
• 1.2% of the children were reported to have ASD in 2006/07;
• 1.8% of the children were reported to have ASD in 2012/13.

Economic Deprivation:
• Families of children with autism (CWA) were 9%-18% worse off per week than families of children not on the autism spectrum (COA).
• Between 2006-2013 deprivation of CWA compared to COA nearly doubled as measured by eligibility for free school meals (from near 20 % to 37%)
• In 2006, CWA and COA experienced similar levels of deprivation (approx. 20%), by 2013, a considerable deprivation gap had developed, with CWA experienced 6% more deprivation than COA.
• Nearly 1/3 of primary school CWA lived in the most deprived areas in Northern Ireland.
• Nearly ½ of children with Asperger’s Syndrome who attended special school lived in the most deprived areas.

Unemployment:
• Mothers of CWA were 6% less likely to be employed than mothers of COA.
• Mothers of CWA earned 35%-56% less than mothers of COA.
• CWA were 9% less likely to live in two income families than COA.

Health:
• Pre-diagnosis, CWA were more likely than COA to have physical health problems, including walking on level ground, speech and language, hearing, eyesight, and asthma.
• Aged 3 years of age CWA experienced poorer emotional and social health than COA, this difference increased significantly by the time they were 7 years of age.
• Mothers of young CWA had lower levels of life satisfaction and poorer mental health than mothers of young COA.
Education:
• In mainstream education, children with ASD aged 11-16 years reported less satisfaction with their social relationships than COA.
• Younger children with ASD (aged 5 and 7 years) were less likely to enjoy school, were bullied more, and were more reluctant to attend school than COA.
• CWA attended school 2-3 weeks less than COA .
• Children with Asperger’s Syndrome in special schools missed the equivalent of 8-13 school days more than children with Asperger’s Syndrome in mainstream schools.
• Children with ASD attending mainstream schooling were less likely to gain 5+ GCSEs A*-C or subsequently attend university.



Further and Higher Education:
• Enrolment rates for students with ASD have risen in Further Education (FE), from 0% to 0.7%.
• Enrolment rates for students with ASD have risen in Higher Education (HE), from 0.28% to 0.45%.
• Students with ASD chose to study different subjects than students without ASD, although other factors, e.g., gender, age etc. may have played a part in subject selection.
• Students with ASD from NI were more likely than students without ASD to choose Northern Irish HE Institutions rather than study outside NI.

Participation in adult life and employment:
• A small number of adults with ASD (n=99) have benefitted from DES employment provision over the past 12 years.
• It is unknown how many adults with ASD have received employment support elsewhere (e.g. Steps to Work).
•
Awareness and Attitudes in the General Population:
• In both the 2003 and 2012 NI Life and Times Survey (NILTS), NI public reported positive attitudes towards the inclusion of children with ASD in mainstream education (see also BASE Project Vol. 2).

Gap Analysis Recommendations:
This was the first comprehensive secondary analysis with regards to ASD of existing large-scale data sets in Northern Ireland. Data gaps were identified and further replications would benefit from the following data inclusion:
• ASD should be recorded routinely in the following datasets:
o Census;
o Northern Ireland Survey of Activity Limitation (NISALD);
o Training for Success/Steps to work; Steps to Success;
o Travel survey;
o Hate crime; and
o Labour Force Survey.
• Data should be collected on the destinations/qualifications of special school leavers.
• NILT Survey autism module should be repeated in 5 years time (2017) (see full report of 1st NILT Survey autism module 2012 in BASE Project Report Volume 2).
• General public attitudes and awareness should be assessed for children and young people, using the Young Life and Times Survey (YLT) and the Kids Life and Times Survey (KLT); (this work is underway, Dillenburger, McKerr, Schubolz, & Lloyd, 2014-2015).
 

Helping the most vulnerable out of the poverty trap and reducing inequality: Policies, strategies, and services for individuals with Autism Spectrum Disorder, including intellectual and neurodevelopmental disabilities: BASE Project Report (Volume 2) NILT Survey Autism Module

The primary purpose of the BASE Project was to establish how to help individuals with Autism Spectrum Disorder out of poverty by promoting social inclusion. In order to achieve this, a range of methodologies were utilised that aimed to provide a baseline against which the effect of the Autism Act (NI) 2011 and the associated Autism Strategy (2013-2020) and Action Plans can be measured. The BASE Project is reported in 5 volumes. Volume 2 reports on the analysis of the autism module of the Northern Ireland Life and Times (NILT) Survey that assessed public awareness, attitudes, knowledge, and projected behaviours with regard to individuals with ASD (all primary data and technical reports are available at www.ark.ac.uk/nilt/).

The NILT (2012) survey first ever autism module (n=1204) offered a baseline against which the impact of new autism legislation, policies, and strategies can be measured. Key findings:

• 82% awareness: Most people in Northern Ireland are aware of autism (n=989).
• 50% of all participants knew someone with autism personally (n=606).

Of those who were aware of autism:
• 19% had a close family member with autism (n=186), and/or a friends/acquaintance (n=296), and/or a work colleague (n=79) with autism.
• Autism awareness was particularly low for those from ethnic minorities and those with no internet access.
• Awareness of autism specific legislation was low (20%).
• Good levels of knowledge about autism strengths and challenges, slight tendency to overestimate the occurrence of special talents.
• Prevalence of autism was underestimated (62% thought autism was much less prevalent than official figures or did not know).
• Fairly accurate perception about causes of autism, i.e., not caused by poor parenting (84%).
• Strong support for evidence-based behavioural interventions (77%), but confusion about interventions that are not evidence-based (64%).
• Strong positive attitudes towards children and adults in social, educational and employment settings.
• Autism not viewed as necessarily ‘lifelong’ (58%); support for independent living (78%), e.g., driving a car (83%).
• More business for employers who employ people with autism (12%).
• Strong support for families caring rather than residential care (64%).
• Confusion about service responsibility: education (26%) health (33%) or both (28%).

Given increasing prevalence rates of ASD it is important that the general population is aware of autism and able to respond responsibly to the associated strengths and challenges. The results of the NILT (2012) first ever autism module show that the general public was well aware of autism, had positive attitudes, and was relatively knowledgeable about the issues faced by individuals and families affected directly. However, there was a lack of clarity about responsibility for effective service delivery. The NILT results show that a shift in focus is necessary from ‘awareness raising campaigns’ to an approach that delivers clarity with regard to intervention and accountability.

Integrating Multiple Point Statistics with Aerial Geophysical Data to assist Groundwater Flow Models

The process of accounting for heterogeneity has made significant advances in statistical research, primarily in the framework of stochastic analysis and the development of multiple-point statistics (MPS). Among MPS techniques, the direct sampling (DS) method is tested to determine its ability to delineate heterogeneity from aerial magnetics data in a regional sandstone aquifer intruded by low-permeability volcanic dykes in Northern Ireland, UK. The use of two two-dimensional bivariate training images aids in creating spatial probability distributions of heterogeneities of hydrogeological interest, despite relatively ‘noisy’ magnetics data (i.e. including hydrogeologically irrelevant urban noise and regional geologic effects). These distributions are incorporated into a hierarchy system where previously published density function and upscaling methods are applied to derive regional distributions of equivalent hydraulic conductivity tensor K. Several K models, as determined by several stochastic realisations of MPS dyke locations, are computed within groundwater flow models and evaluated by comparing modelled heads with field observations. Results show a significant improvement in model calibration when compared to a simplistic homogeneous and isotropic aquifer model that does not account for the dyke occurrence evidenced by airborne magnetic data. The best model is obtained when normal and reverse polarity dykes are computed separately within MPS simulations and when a probability threshold of 0.7 is applied. The presented stochastic approach also provides improvement when compared to a previously published deterministic anisotropic model based on the unprocessed (i.e. noisy) airborne magnetics. This demonstrates the potential of coupling MPS to airborne geophysical data for regional groundwater modelling.

Poverty Trap and Educational Shock: Evidence from Missionary Fields

Low growth equilibria with low investment in human capital generally tend to
persist till an external shock affects the economy. In this paper we use data on
Christian missions to proxy a long-lasting educational shock in Africa. We estimate
the effect of this shock on the quality of children which we proxy using the rate of
underweight children. Consistent with the economic theory we find that the quality
of children significantly rises with the exposure to this shock and this indirect effect
accounts to almost 4 percent in terms of GDP for districts with the maximal exposure

Tanker Mission Implication on a Civil Aerial Refuelling Transport System’s Benefit Evaluation

As the emphasis on initiatives that can improve environmental efficiency while simultaneously maintaining economic viability has escalated in recent years, attention has turned to more radical concepts of operation. In particular, the cruiser–feeder concept has shown potential for a new generation, environmentally friendly, air-transport system to alleviate the growing pressure on the passenger air-transportation network. However, a full evaluation of realizable benefits is needed to determine how the design and operation of potential feeder-aircraft configurations impact on the feasibility of the overall concept. This paper presents an analysis of a cruiser–feeder concept, in which fuel is transferred between the feeder and the cruiser in an aerial-refueling configuration to extend range while reducing cruiser weight, compared against the effects of escalating existing technology levels while retaining the existing passenger levels. Up to 14% fuel-burn and 12% operating-cost savings can be achieved when compared to a similar technology-level aircraft concept without aerial refueling, representing up to 26% in fuel burn and 25% in total operating cost over the existing operational model at today’s standard fleet technology and performance. However, these potential savings are not uniformly distributed across the network, and the system is highly sensitive to the routes serviced, with reductions in revenue-generation potential observed across the network for aerial-refueling operations due to reductions in passenger revenue.

Improving Feasibility of Point to Point Operations Through Civil Aerial Refuelling

Re-imagining of the aerial transportation system has become increasingly important as the need for significant environmental and economic efficiency gains has become ever more prevalent. A number of studies have highlighted the benefits of the adoption of air to air refuelling within civil aviation. However, it also opens up the potential for increased flexibility in operations through smaller aircraft, shifting emphasis away from the traditional hub and spoke method of operation towards the more flexible Point to Point operations. It is proposed here that one technology can act as an enabler for the other, realising benefits that neither can realise as a standalone. The impact of an air-toair refuelling enabled point to point system is discussed, and the affect on economic and environmental cost metrics relative to traditional operations evaluated. An idealised airport configuration study shows the difference in fuel burn for point to point networks to vary from -23% to 28% from that of Hub and Spoke depending on the configuration. The sensitive natures of the concepts are further explored in a second study based on real airport configurations. The complex effect of the choice of a Point to Point or Hub and Spoke system on fuel burn, operating cost and revenue potential is highlighted. Fuel burn savings of 15% can be experienced with AAR over traditional refuelling operations, with point to point networks increasing the available seat miles (by approximately 20%) without a proportional increase in operating cost or fuel.

The Application of Digital Photogrammetric Techniques and Aerial Photography to the Preservation of Archaeological Detail. Case Study: The Copney Stone Circle Complex, Co. Tyrone, N. Ireland

The Copney Stone Circle Complex, Co. Tyrone, N. Ireland, is an important Bronze Age site forming part of the Mid-Ulster Stone Circle Complex. The Environment Service: Historic Monuments and Buildings (ESHMB) initiated a program of bog-clearance in August 1994 to excavate the stone circles. This work was completed by October 1994 and the excavated site was surveyed in August 1995. Almost immediately, the rate at which the stones forming the circles were breaking down was noted and a program of study initiated to make recommendations upon the conservation of this important site. Digital photogrammetric techniques were applied to aerial images of the stone circles and digital terrain models created from the images at a range of scales. These provide base data sets for comparison with identical surveys to be completed in successive years and will allow the rate of deterioration, and the areas most affected, of the circles to be determined. In addition, a 2D analysis of the stones provides an accurate analysis of the absolute 2D dimensions of the stones for rapid desktop computer analysis by researchers remote from the digital photogrammetric workstation used in the survey.

The products of this work are readily incorporated into web sites, educational packages and databases. The technique provides a rapid and user friendly method of presentation of a large body of information and measurements, and a reliable method of storage of the information from Copney should it become necessary to re-cover the site.

Breaking and Entering: Examining the role of stress and aerial exposure in predator-prey relationships between the common shore crab (Carcinus maenas) and cultivated blue mussels (Mytilus edulis).

During benthic cultivation Mytilus edulis (blue mussels) are subject to predation pressure from a number of predators including Carcinus maenas (shore crabs). This predator can be responsible for substantial losses of mussels from the fishery and a full understanding of the predator–prey relationship between M. edulis and C. maenas is required to ensure attempts that reduce predatory pressure and subsequent commercial loss are successful. Whilst much work has examined the prey–predator size relationships between C. maenas and M. edulis, far less research has investigated how stress, such as periods of extended aerial exposure, may affect these relationships. We tested whether profit in terms of calories gained by crabs consuming mussels stressed by aerial exposure for 48 h differed from that of mussels at ambient conditions and whether being stressed affected the mussel's likelihood of predation. We also tested whether the size relationship between predators and their prey differed when mussels were stressed. We found that the profitability of prey (calories gained per second of handling time) did not vary between stressed and unstressed mussels. Handling times for stressed and unstressed mussels were similar, even when crabs were presented with mussels of the maximum size that they are able to consume. Small crabs were more likely to reject a mussel of preferred size if it was unstressed, suggesting that crabs may be able to assess that these mussels would require extra effort to break into and consume. Our findings suggest that the predator–prey relationship between mussels and crabs is not altered when mussels are stressed. C. maenas remains a voracious predator and regardless of the condition of mussels laid on commercial beds there is a need to control this predator in attempt to reduce losses in the benthic fishery.

An invasive-native mammalian species replacement process captured by camera trap survey random encounter models

Camera traps are used to estimate densities or abundances using capture-recapture and, more recently, random encounter models (REMs). We deploy REMs to describe an invasive-native species replacement process, and to demonstrate their wider application beyond abundance estimation. The Irish hare Lepus timidus hibernicus is a high priority endemic of conservation concern. It is threatened by an expanding population of non-native, European hares L. europaeus, an invasive species of global importance. Camera traps were deployed in thirteen 1 km squares, wherein the ratio of invader to native densities were corroborated by night-driven line transect distance sampling throughout the study area of 1652 km2. Spatial patterns of invasive and native densities between the invader’s core and peripheral ranges, and native allopatry, were comparable between methods. Native densities in the peripheral range were comparable to those in native allopatry using REM, or marginally depressed using Distance Sampling. Numbers of the invader were substantially higher than the native in the core range, irrespective of method, with a 5:1 invader-to-native ratio indicating species replacement. We also describe a post hoc optimization protocol for REM which will inform subsequent (re-)surveys, allowing survey effort (camera hours) to be reduced by up to 57% without compromising the width of confidence intervals associated with density estimates. This approach will form the basis of a more cost-effective means of surveillance and monitoring for both the endemic and invasive species. The European hare undoubtedly represents a significant threat to the endemic Irish hare.

Head Space-Trap GC-MS method development and validation for the analysis of volatile organic compounds in water samples

Dissertação de Mestrado, Qualidade em Análises, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade do Algarve, 2015