CASCADE: An Agent Based Framework For Modeling The Dynamics Of Smart Electricity Systems

The Complex Adaptive Systems, Cognitive Agents and Distributed Energy (CASCADE) project is developing a framework based on Agent Based Modelling (ABM). The CASCADE Framework can be used both to gain policy and industry relevant insights into the smart grid concept itself and as a platform to design and test distributed ICT solutions for smart grid based business entities. ABM is used to capture the behaviors of diff erent social, economic and technical actors, which may be defi ned at various levels of abstraction. It is applied to understanding their interactions and can be adapted to include learning processes and emergent patterns. CASCADE models ‘prosumer’ agents (i.e., producers and/or consumers of energy) and ‘aggregator’ agents (e.g., traders of energy in both wholesale and retail markets) at various scales, from large generators and Energy Service Companies down to individual people and devices. The CASCADE Framework is formed of three main subdivisions that link models of electricity supply and demand, the electricity market and power fl ow. It can also model the variability of renewable energy generation caused by the weather, which is an important issue for grid balancing and the profi tability of energy suppliers. The development of CASCADE has already yielded some interesting early fi ndings, demonstrating that it is possible for a mediating agent (aggregator) to achieve stable demandfl attening across groups of domestic households fi tted with smart energy control and communication devices, where direct wholesale price signals had previously been found to produce characteristic complex system instability. In another example, it has demonstrated how large changes in supply mix can be caused even by small changes in demand profi le. Ongoing and planned refi nements to the Framework will support investigation of demand response at various scales, the integration of the power sector with transport and heat sectors, novel technology adoption and diffusion work, evolution of new smart grid business models, and complex power grid engineering and market interactions.

Privatisation and cross-border electricity trade: from internal market to European Supergrid?

he perspective European Supergrid would consist of an integrated power system network, where electricity demands from one country could be met by generation from another country. This paper makes use of a bi-linear fixed-effects model to analyse the determinants for trading electricity across borders among 34 countries connected by the European Supergrid. The key question that this paper aims to address is the extent to which the privatisation of European electricity markets has brought about higher cross-border trade of electricity. The analysis makes use of distance, price ratios, gate closure times, size of peaks and aggregate demand as standard determinants. Controlling for other standard determinants, it is concluded that privatisation in most cases led to higher power exchange and that the benefits are more significant where privatisation measures have been in place for a longer period.

Investigating preferences for dynamic electricity tariffs: the effect of environmental and system benefit disclosure

Dynamic electricity pricing can produce efficiency gains in the electricity sector and help achieve energy policy goals such as increasing electric system reliability and supporting renewable energy deployment. Retail electric companies can offer dynamic pricing to residential electricity customers via smart meter-enabled tariffs that proxy the cost to procure electricity on the wholesale market. Current investments in the smart metering necessary to implement dynamic tariffs show policy makers’ resolve for enabling responsive demand and realizing its benefits. However, despite these benefits and the potential bill savings these tariffs can offer, adoption among residential customers remains at low levels. Using a choice experiment approach, this paper seeks to determine whether disclosing the environmental and system benefits of dynamic tariffs to residential customers can increase adoption. Although sampling and design issues preclude wide generalization, we found that our environmentally conscious respondents reduced their required discount to switch to dynamic tariffs around 10% in response to higher awareness of environmental and system benefits. The perception that shifting usage is easy to do also had a significant impact, indicating the potential importance of enabling technology. Perhaps the targeted communication strategy employed by this study is one way to increase adoption and achieve policy goals.

Energy performance ratings and house prices in Wales: an empirical study

This paper investigates the price effect of EPC ratings on the residential dwelling prices in Wales. It examines the capitalisation of energy efficiency ratings into house prices using two approaches. The first adopts a cross-sectional framework to investigate the effect of EPC band (and EPC rating) on a large sample of dwelling transactions. The second approach is based on a repeat-sales methodology to examine the impact of EPC band and rating on house price appreciation. The results show that, controlling for other price influencing dwelling characteristics, EPC band does affect house prices. This observed influence of EPC on price may not be a result of energy performance alone; the effect may be due to non-energy related benefits associated with certain types, specifications and ages of dwellings or there may be unobserved quality differences unrelated to energy performance such as better quality fittings and materials. An analysis of the private rental segment reveals that, in contrast to the general market, low-EPC rated properties were not traded at a significant discount, suggesting different implicit prices of potential energy savings for landlords and owner-occupiers.

Energy performance ratings and house prices in Wales: an empirical study

This paper investigates the effect of Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) ratings on residential prices in Wales. Drawing on a sample of approximately 192,000 transactions, the capitalisation of energy efficiency ratings into house prices is investigated using two approaches. The first adopts a cross-sectional framework to investigate the effect of EPC rating on price. The second approach applies a repeat-sales methodology to investigate the impact of EPC rating on house price appreciation. Statistically significant positive price premiums are estimated for dwellings in EPC bands A/B (12.8%) and C (3.5%) compared to houses in band D. For dwellings in band E (−3.6%) and F (−6.5%) there are statistically significant discounts. Such effects may not be the result of energy performance alone. In addition to energy cost differences, the price effect may be due to additional benefits of energy efficient features. An analysis of the private rental segment reveals that, in contrast to the general market, low-EPC rated dwellings were not traded at a significant discount. This suggests different implicit prices of potential energy savings for landlords and owner-occupiers.

The Application Of Renewable Energy For Prefab Houses In Germany

Within the framework of the REBUS project the German building industry has been investigated regarding their energy concepts. The intention was to evaluatethe establishment of renewable energy sources on the German market for new built houses and prefab houses in particular. For this purpose the products of 85manufacturers of prefab houses have been analyzed. Of special interest was the applicationof heating and hot water systems driven by solar energy and biomass. The results show that both techniques are well accepted and established. Almost 90% of themanufacturers offer solar systems on request and almost 70% heating systems based on Pellets. 24% offered solar and 7% as standard options in their range. From theachieved figures the potential of the Swedish market can be worked out. Strategies to introduce renewable energy to a greater extent to Swedish house manufacturers and builders might also be found.

Solar Energy assessment based on weather station data for direct site monitoring in Indonesia

This thesis evaluates different sites for a weather measurement system and a suitable PV- simulation for University of Surabaya (UBAYA) in Indonesia/Java. The weather station is able to monitor all common weather phenomena including solar insolation. It is planned to use the data for scientific and educational purposes in the renewable energy studies. During evaluation and installation it falls into place that official specifications from global meteorological organizations could not be meet for some sensors caused by the conditions of UBAYA campus. After arranging the hardware the weather at the site was monitored for period of time. A comparison with different official sources from ground based and satellite bases measurements showed differences in wind and solar radiation. In some cases the monthly average solar insolation was deviating 42 % for satellite-based measurements. For the ground based it was less than 10 %. The average wind speed has a difference of 33 % compared to a source, which evaluated the wind power in Surabaya. The wind direction shows instabilities towards east compared with data from local weather station at the airport. PSET has the chance to get some investments to investigate photovoltaic on there own roof. With several simulations a suitable roof direction and the yearly and monthly outputs are shown. With a 7.7 kWpeak PV installation with the latest crystalline technology on the market 8.82 MWh/year could be achieved with weather data from 2012. Thin film technology could increase the value up to 9.13 MWh/year. However, the roofs have enough area to install PV. Finally the low price of electricity in Indonesia makes it not worth to feed in the energy into the public grid.

Entry, re-location and growth in the Swedish wholesale trade industry

Wholesale trade has an intermediate position between manufacturing and retail in the distributional channel. In modern economies, consumers buy few, if any, products directly from manufacture or producer. Instead, it is a wholesaler, who is in direct contact with producers, buying goods in larger quantities and selling them in smaller quantities to retailers. Traditionally, the main function of a wholesaler has been to push goods along the distributional channel from producer to retailer, or other nonend user. However, the function of wholesalers usually goes beyond the process of the physical distribution of goods. Wholesalers also arrange storage, perform market analyses, promote trade or provide technical support to consumers (Riemers 1998). The existence of wholesalers (and other intermediaries) in the distributional channel is based on the effective and efficient performance of distribution services, that are needed by producers and other members of the supply chain. Producers usually do not enjoy the economies of scale that they have in production, when it comes to providing distributional services (Rosenbloom 2007) and this creates a space for wholesalers or other intermediaries. Even though recent developments in the distributional channel indicate that traditional wholesaling activities now also compete with other supply chain organizations, wholesaling still remains an important activity in many economies (Quinn and Sparks, 2007). In 2010, the Swedish wholesale trade sector consisted of approximately 46.000 firms and generated an annual turnover of 1 300 billion SEK (Företagsstatistiken, Statistics Sweden). In terms of turnover, wholesaling accounts for 20% of the gross domestic product and is thereby the third largest industry. This is behind manufacturing and a composite group of firms in other sectors of the service industry but ahead of retailing. This indicates that the wholesale trade sector is an important part of the Swedish economy. The position of wholesaling is further reinforced when measuring productivity growth. Measured in terms of value added per employee, wholesaling experienced the largest productivity growth of all industries in the Swedish economy during the years 2000 through 2010. The fact that wholesale trade is one of the important parts of a modern economy, and the positive development of the Swedish wholesale trade sector in recent decades, leads to several questions related to industry dynamics. The three topics that will be examined in this thesis are firm entry, firm relocation and firm growth. The main question to be answered by this thesis is what factors influence new firm formation, firm relocation and firm growth in the Swedish wholesale trade sector?

Essays on firm dynamics in the Swedish wholesale trade sector

This thesis consists of a summary and five self-contained papers addressing dynamics of firms in the Swedish wholesale trade sector. Paper [1] focuses upon determinants of new firm formation in the Swedish wholesale trade sector, using two definitions of firms’ relevant markets, markets defined as administrative areas, and markets based on a cost minimizing behavior of retailers. The paper shows that new entering firms tend to avoid regions with already high concentration of other firms in the same branch of wholesaling, while right-of-the-center local government and quality of the infrastructure have positive impacts upon entry of new firms. The signs of the estimated coefficients remain the same regardless which definition of relevant market is used, while the size of the coefficients is generally higher once relevant markets delineated on the cost-minimizing assumption of retailers are used. Paper [2] analyses determinant of firm relocation, distinguishing between the role of the factors in in-migration municipalities and out-migration municipalities. The results of the analysis indicate that firm-specific factors, such as profits, age and size of the firm are negatively related to the firm’s decision to relocate. Furthermore, firms seems to be avoiding municipalities with already high concentration of firms operating in the same industrial branch of wholesaling and also to be more reluctant to leave municipalities governed by right-of-the- center parties. Lastly, firms seem to avoid moving to municipalities characterized with high population density. Paper [3] addresses determinants of firm growth, adopting OLS and a quantile regression technique. The results of this paper indicate that very little of the firm growth can be explained by the firm-, industry- and region-specific factors, controlled for in the estimated models. Instead, the firm growth seems to be driven by internal characteristics of firms, factors difficult to capture in conventional statistics. This result supports Penrose’s (1959) suggestion that internal resources such as firm culture, brand loyalty, entrepreneurial skills, and so on, are important determinants of firm growth rates. Paper [4] formulates a forecasting model for firm entry into local markets and tests this model using data from the Swedish wholesale industry. The empirical analysis is based on directly estimating the profit function of wholesale firms and identification of low- and high-return local markets. The results indicate that 19 of 30 estimated models have more net entry in high-return municipalities, but the estimated parameters is only statistically significant at conventional level in one of our estimated models, and then with unexpected negative sign. Paper [5] studies effects of firm relocation on firm profits of relocating firms, employing a difference-in-difference propensity score matching. Using propensity score matching, the pre-relocalization differences between relocating and non-relocating firms are balanced, while the difference-in-difference estimator controls for all time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity among firms. The results suggest that firms that relocate increase their profits significantly, in comparison to what the profits would be had the firms not relocated. This effect is estimated to vary between 3 to 11 percentage points, depending on the length of the analyzed period. 

Pricing and competition in the Swedish retail market for electricity

Sweden, together with Norway, Finland and Denmark, have created a multi-national electricity market called NordPool. In this market, producers and retailers of electricity can buy and sell electricity, and the retailers then offers this electricity to end consumers such as households and industries. Previous studies have shown that pricing at the NordPool market is functioning quite well, but no other study has to my knowledge studied if pricing in the retail market to consumers in Sweden is well functioning. If the market is well functioning, with competition and low transaction costs when changing electricity retailer, we would expect that a homogeneous good such as electricity would be sold at the approximately same price, and that price changes would be highly correlated, in this market. Thus, the aim of this study is to test whether the price of Vattenfall, the largest energy firm in the Swedish market, is highly correlated to the price of other firms in the Swedish retail market for electricity. Descriptive statistics indicate that the price offered by Vattenfall is quite similar to the price of other firms in the market. In addition, regression analysis show that the correlation between the price of Vattenfall and other firms is as high as 0.98.

One rapidly growing market of Sweden: organic food : A qualitative study portraying some consumers’ decision to purchase organic food

In recent years there has been a significantly rising trend amongst consumers for health and environmental issues, which has resulted in greater attention for and sales of organic food. Organic food production strives to use natural resources, such as land, energy and water in a sustainable way and the products does not contain artificial fertilizers or chemical pesticides. However, organic food products are also often more expensive and less available in comparison to conventional food products. Despite this, interest for and sales of organic food products have increased around the globe, and in Sweden particularly, the increase in sales has grown largely from an international perspective. This thesis is of qualitative character and is focused on studying some consumers from the Swedish market of organic food. The purpose of this thesis is to contribute with a better understanding on the buying decision process regarding organic food purchase. To achieve this, the authors have studied some consumers that purchase organic food and have searched for patterns that could be identified in the decision process. The consumer buying decision process model has been used for portrayal of the chosen consumers’ decision to purchase organic food products. Interviews with six Swedish consumers were conducted, whereas each respondent continuously purchase organic food products. Results show that the purchase of organic food products begins with discovering an unsatisfied need state, which the consumers of this study desired to change with the purchase of organic food products. This study show how six consumers reason when passing through the stages of the buying decision process, in order to satisfy their desired need state. The authors found that the respondents feel satisfied with purchasing organic food products, which lead them in to continuously buying these products. Altogether, the findings contribute with knowledge that can come to be helpful when wanting to understand more about the consumer decision to purchase organic food.

Childhood obesity - a sign of commercial success, but a market failure.

'Obesogenic' products, such as energy dense foods, passive entertainment products, cars, and labour-saving devices, are widely available and heavily promoted. Because they are highly consumed and very profitable, obesity becomes the inevitable consequence of their commercial successes. Contemporary market forces heavily favour behaviours for short-term preferences (i.e. over-consumption and underactivity) over long-term preferences (i.e. healthy weight) and this is especially true for children. Hence, if the market, as the main mechanism for determining choices, results in outcomes, which make our children worse off, as is occurring with childhood obesity, then the market has failed to sustain and promote social and individual goals. This is a serious market failure. In the current obesogenic environment, expecting adults, let alone children, to make food and activity choices in their own best long-term interests is, therefore, demonstrably flawed. We argue that significant government intervention is needed to correct this market failure, as has been done for other major health problems.

Promoting energy efficiency in the private rented sector

The English House Condition Survey for 1991 demonstrated that levels of energy efficiency in private rented property are significantly below other sectors, even though energy improvements have tangible benefits for landlords. The low level of energy efficiency provision in the private rented sector indicates that landlords are unaware or unconvinced of these benefits and market barriers may have restricted uptake. Information regarding energy efficiency advice to the private rented HMO sector has focussed on offering good practice design guidance, and information about the level of fitness and overall characteristics of the sector. This research project evaluated the PRESS scheme, which encouraged landlords to introduce energy efficiency measures. A total of 78 private sector rented properties in Sheffield were analysed with retrofit measures to improve levels of energy efficiency. The results demonstrate that whilst market barriers exist, the PRESS scheme went some way to overcoming some barriers to energy efficiency.

Utilising solar energy within conventional coal fired power stations

Although the thermodynamic advantages of using solar energy to replace the bled off steam in the regeneration system of Rankine cycle coal fired power stations has been proven theoretically, the practical techno/economic feasibility of the concept has yet to be confirmed relative to real power station applications. To investigate this concept further, computer modelling software “THERMSOLV” was specifically developed for this project at Deakin University, together with the support of the Victorian power industry and Australian Research Council (ARC). This newly developed software simulates the steam cycle to assess the techno/economic merit of the solar aided concept for various power station structures, locations and local electricity market conditions. Two case studies, one in Victoria Australia and one in Yunnan Province, China, have been carried out with the software. Chapter one of this thesis defines the aims and scope of this study. Chapter two details the literature search in the related areas for this study. The thermodynamic concept of solar aid power generation technology has been described in chapter three. In addition, thermodynamic analysis i.e. exergy/availability has been described in this chapter. The “Thermosolv” software developed in this study is detailed in chapter four with its structure, functions and operation manual included. In chapter five the outcomes of two case studies using the “Thermosolv” software are presented, with discussions and conclusions about the study in chapters 6 and 7 respectfully. The relevant recommendations are then made in chapter eight.