Development and validation of a risk score predicting substantial weight gain over 5 years in middle-aged European men and women.

BACKGROUND Identifying individuals at high risk of excess weight gain may help targeting prevention efforts at those at risk of various metabolic diseases associated with weight gain. Our aim was to develop a risk score to identify these individuals and validate it in an external population. METHODS We used lifestyle and nutritional data from 53°758 individuals followed for a median of 5.4 years from six centers of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) to develop a risk score to predict substantial weight gain (SWG) for the next 5 years (derivation sample). Assuming linear weight gain, SWG was defined as gaining ≥ 10% of baseline weight during follow-up. Proportional hazards models were used to identify significant predictors of SWG separately by EPIC center. Regression coefficients of predictors were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Pooled coefficients were used to assign weights to each predictor. The risk score was calculated as a linear combination of the predictors. External validity of the score was evaluated in nine other centers of the EPIC study (validation sample). RESULTS Our final model included age, sex, baseline weight, level of education, baseline smoking, sports activity, alcohol use, and intake of six food groups. The model's discriminatory ability measured by the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.64 (95% CI = 0.63-0.65) in the derivation sample and 0.57 (95% CI = 0.56-0.58) in the validation sample, with variation between centers. Positive and negative predictive values for the optimal cut-off value of ≥ 200 points were 9% and 96%, respectively. CONCLUSION The present risk score confidently excluded a large proportion of individuals from being at any appreciable risk to develop SWG within the next 5 years. Future studies, however, may attempt to further refine the positive prediction of the score.

Federalism and Welfare to Work in Switzerland: The Development of Active Social Policies in a Fragmented Welfare State

This article is concerned with the impact that federal structures have on the development of welfare to work or activation policies. More precisely, it argues that the incentives and the risks associated with a division of responsibilities among different jurisdictions may constitute an obstacle to broad reforms that promote labor market participation of nonworking benefit recipients. This argument is illustrated with a case study discussing policy responses to a massive rise in caseloads among social assistance recipients in Switzerland. We conclude that the lack of a fundamental reform was the consequence of the incentives provided by the federal structure of the program. These incentives have both encouraged cost shifting among jurisdictions and discouraged involvement of federal level policy makers in a bigger reform.

From Opacity to Transparency? The Place of Organized Interests within the European Institutions

Regulació dels Grup d'interès en la governança europea és crucial per a una comprensió completa de com s'exerceix el poder a la Unió Europea (UE) i per a una descripció més precisa de com funciona el sistema polític de la UE (i dels seus principis subjacents). Un dels temes principals aquí és com els interessos privats o particulars comprometre amb un interès general o públic encarnat en una forma o altra per aquells que actuen per a la UE. Donada la varietat de temes sensibles en joc, no és d'estranyar que la qüestió de la regulació es troba amb una resistència considerable, sobre tot en la Comissió. No obstant això, els recents obstacles a la integració europea han tingut l'efecte de rellançar un debat que fa que l'ètica i la transparència de les peces centrals de l'agenda. Dinàmiques polítiques actuals semblen donar testimoni d'una creixent receptivitat de la UE a les reivindicacions del moviment ALTER-EU que busca un entorn molt més regulat per cabilderos i funcionaris comunitaris.

One kind of lawlessness: estimating the welfare cost of Somali piracy

This paper estimates the effect of piracy attacks on shipping costs using a unique data set on shipping contracts in the dry bulk market. We look at shipping routes whose shortest path exposes them to piracy attacks and find that the increase in attacks in 2008 lead to around a ten percent increase in shipping costs. We use this estimate to get a sense of the welfare loss imposed by piracy. Our intermediate estimate suggests that the creation of $120 million of revenue for pirates in the Somalia area led to a welfare loss of over $1.5 billion.

Plasma phospholipid long-chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids and body weight change.

OBJECTIVE We investigated the association between the proportion of long-chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) in plasma phospholipids from blood samples drawn at enrollment and subsequent change in body weight. Sex, age, and BMI were considered as potential effect modifiers. METHOD A total of 1,998 women and men participating in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) were followed for a median of 4.9 years. The associations between the proportion of plasma phospholipid long-chain n-3 PUFA and change in weight were investigated using mixed-effect linear regression. RESULTS The proportion of long-chain n-3 PUFA was not associated with change in weight. Among all participants, the 1-year weight change was -0.7 g per 1% point higher long-chain n-3 PUFA level (95% confidence interval: -20.7 to 19.3). The results when stratified by sex, age, or BMI groups were not systematically different. CONCLUSION The results of this study suggest that the proportion of long-chain n-3 PUFA in plasma phospholipids is not associated with subsequent change in body weight within the range of exposure in the general population.

Combined Report on the Institutions Under the Control of the Iowa Department of Human Services : Schedules, Findings and Recommendations, June 30, 2002

State Agency Audit Report

Combined Report on the Institutions Under the Control of the Iowa Department of Corrections - Schedules, Findings and Recommendations, June 30, 2002

State Agency Audit Report - Combined Report

Juvenile Crime and the Welfare of Youth, 1999

This staff report on various factors regarding juvenile issues and crime was prepared by the Division of Criminal and Juvenile Justice Planning (CJJP). It was prepared to help the Juvenile Justice Advisory Council (JJAC) prepare their 3-Year Strategy as prescribed by the Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention Act (JJDP Act).

Combined Report on the Institutions Under the Control of the Iowa Department of Human Services: Schedules Findings and Recommendations, June 30, 2003

State Agency Audit Report

Combined Report on the Institutions Under the Control of the Iowa Department of Corrections: Schedules Findings and Recommendations, June 30, 2003

State Agency Audit Report