Modular risk modeling and management of water infrastructure disaster incidents

Water supply and wastewater control are critical elements of society's infrastructure. The objective of this study will be to provide a generic risk assessment tool to provide municipalities and the nation as a whole with a quantifiable assessment of their vulnerability to water infrastructure threats. The approach will prioritize countermeasures and identify where research and development is required to further minimize risk. This paper outlines the current context, primary concerns and state-of-the art in critical infrastructure risk management for the water sector and proposes a novel approach to resolve existing questions in the field. The proposed approach is based on a modular framework that derives a quantitative risk index for varied domains of interest. The approach methodology is scaleable and based on formal definitions of event probability and severity. The framework is equally applicable to natural and human-induced hazard types and can be used for analysis of compound risk events.

An integrated representation of the services provided by global water resources

Water is essential not only to maintain the livelihoods of human beings but also to sustain ecosystems. Over the last few decades several global assessments have reviewed current and future uses of water, and have offered potential solutions to a possible water crisis. However, these have tended to focus on water supply rather than on the range of demands for all water services (including those of ecosystems). In this paper, a holistic global view of water resources and the services they provide is presented, using Sankey diagrams as a visualisation tool. These diagrams provide a valuable addition to the spatial maps of other global assessments, as they track the sources, uses, services and sinks of water resources. They facilitate comparison of different water services, and highlight trade-offs amongst them. For example, they reveal how increasing the supply of water resources to one service (crop production) can generate a reduction in provision of other water services (e.g., to ecosystem maintenance). The potential impacts of efficiency improvements in the use of water are also highlighted; for example, reduction in soil evaporation from crop production through better farming practices, or the results of improved treatment and re-use of return flows leading to reduction of delivery to final sinks. This paper also outlines the measures needed to ensure sustainable water resource use and supply for multiple competing services in the future, and emphasises that integrated management of land and water resources is essential to achieve this goal. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

Study on Water Resources Regulation and Reservoir Operating Prediction for Suppression of Salt Water Intrusion in the Pearl River Estuary

Salt water intrusion occurred frequently during dry season in Modaomen waterway of the Pearl River Estuary. With the development of region's economy and urbanization, the salt tides affect the region's water supply more and more seriously in recent years. Regulation and allocation of freshwater resources of the upper rivers of the estuary to suppress the salt tides is becoming important measures for ensuring the water supply security of the region in dry season. The observation data analysis showed that the flow value at the Wuzhou hydrometric station on the upper Xijiang river had a good correlation with the salinity in Modaomen estuary. Thus the flow rate of Wuzhou has been used as a control variable for suppression of salt tides in Modaomen estuary. However, the runoff at Wuzhou mainly comes from the discharge of Longtan reservoir on the upper reaches of Xijiang river and the runoff in the interval open valley between Longtan and Wuzhou sections. As the long distance and many tributaries as well as the large non-controlled watershed between this two sections, the reservoir water scheduling has a need for reasonable considering of interaction between the reservoir regulating discharge and the runoff process of the interval open watershed while the deployment of suppression flow at Wuzhou requires longer lasting time and high precision for the salt tide cycles. For this purpose, this study established a runoff model for Longtan - Wuzhou interval drainage area and by model calculations and observation data analysis, helped to understand the response patterns of the flow rate at Wuzhou to the water discharge of Longtan under the interval water basin runoff participating conditions. On this basis, further discussions were taken on prediction methods of Longtan reservoir discharge scheduling scheme for saline intrusion suppression and provided scientific and typical implementation programs for effective suppression flow process at the Wuzhou section.

Method for calculating ecological water storage and ecological water requirement of marsh

As one of the most typical wetlands, marsh plays an important role in hydrological and economic aspects, especially in keeping biological diversity. In this study, the definition and connotation of the ecological water storage of marsh is discussed for the first time, and its distinction and relationship with ecological water requirement are also analyzed. Furthermore, the gist and method of calculating ecological water storage and ecological water requirement have been provided, and Momoge wetland has been given as an example of calculation of the two variables. Ecological water use of marsh can be ascertained according to ecological water storage and ecological water requirement. For reasonably spatial and temporal variation of water storage and rational water resources planning, the suitable quantity of water supply to marsh can be calculated according to the hydrological conditions, ecological demand and actual water resources.

Developing the untapped wealth of Britain's ?Celtic Fringe? : Water engineering and the Welsh landscape, 1870 ? 1960

Roberts, O. (2006). Developing the untapped wealth of Britain's ?Celtic fringe?: water engineering and the Welsh landscape, 1870-1960. Landscape Research. 31(2), pp.121-133. RAE2008

Methane contamination of drinking water accompanying gas-well drilling and hydraulic fracturing.

Directional drilling and hydraulic-fracturing technologies are dramatically increasing natural-gas extraction. In aquifers overlying the Marcellus and Utica shale formations of northeastern Pennsylvania and upstate New York, we document systematic evidence for methane contamination of drinking water associated with shale-gas extraction. In active gas-extraction areas (one or more gas wells within 1 km), average and maximum methane concentrations in drinking-water wells increased with proximity to the nearest gas well and were 19.2 and 64 mg CH(4) L(-1) (n = 26), a potential explosion hazard; in contrast, dissolved methane samples in neighboring nonextraction sites (no gas wells within 1 km) within similar geologic formations and hydrogeologic regimes averaged only 1.1 mg L(-1) (P < 0.05; n = 34). Average δ(13)C-CH(4) values of dissolved methane in shallow groundwater were significantly less negative for active than for nonactive sites (-37 ± 7‰ and -54 ± 11‰, respectively; P < 0.0001). These δ(13)C-CH(4) data, coupled with the ratios of methane-to-higher-chain hydrocarbons, and δ(2)H-CH(4) values, are consistent with deeper thermogenic methane sources such as the Marcellus and Utica shales at the active sites and matched gas geochemistry from gas wells nearby. In contrast, lower-concentration samples from shallow groundwater at nonactive sites had isotopic signatures reflecting a more biogenic or mixed biogenic/thermogenic methane source. We found no evidence for contamination of drinking-water samples with deep saline brines or fracturing fluids. We conclude that greater stewardship, data, and-possibly-regulation are needed to ensure the sustainable future of shale-gas extraction and to improve public confidence in its use.

Hydraulic redistribution of soil water by roots affects whole-stand evapotranspiration and net ecosystem carbon exchange.

*Hydraulic redistribution (HR) of water via roots from moist to drier portions of the soil occurs in many ecosystems, potentially influencing both water use and carbon assimilation. *By measuring soil water content, sap flow and eddy covariance, we investigated the temporal variability of HR in a loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) plantation during months of normal and below-normal precipitation, and examined its effects on tree transpiration, ecosystem water use and carbon exchange. *The occurrence of HR was explained by courses of reverse flow through roots. As the drought progressed, HR maintained soil moisture above 0.15 cm(3) cm(-3) and increased transpiration by 30-50%. HR accounted for 15-25% of measured total site water depletion seasonally, peaking at 1.05 mm d(-1). The understory species depended on water redistributed by the deep-rooted overstory pine trees for their early summer water supply. Modeling carbon flux showed that in the absence of HR, gross ecosystem productivity and net ecosystem exchange could be reduced by 750 and 400 g C m(-2) yr(-1), respectively. *Hydraulic redistribution mitigated the effects of soil drying on understory and stand evapotranspiration and had important implications for net primary productivity by maintaining this whole ecosystem as a carbon sink.

Finance for water and sanitation as a public service

Drawing on empirical evidence gathered through the PSIRU database, this contribution aims at addressing the potential of public finance to enhance the provision of water supply and sanitation as a public service. It highlights the problems associated with (and the disappointing results obtained from) resort to Private Sector Participation and private finance, both historically and in the last 15-20 years, in developed and developing countries. It also addresses the advantages of using public finance as a more cost-effective and equitable instrument to achieve developmental objectives such as the expansion of service coverage and development of water and sanitation infrastructure. The potential of public operations in maximising developmental impact from the social, economic and environmental points of view is then explored referring to specific examples from a variety of countries and regions. These include the in-house restructuring of public operations to enhance transparency, accountability and effectiveness, as well as the use of Public-Public Partnerships (PUPs) to build capacity. Attention is devoted to the specific financial requirements of expanding sewerage services at global level to achieve MDGs or broader developmental goals. These requirements are revisited in light of a regional breakdown of coverage gaps, available resources and development aid flows. These findings challenge the established view among international and bilateral agencies that expanding sewerage services in developing countries is excessively costly and should be abandoned as a priority because unaffordable. This contribution draws on a number of PSIRU Reports, and particularly the following. - http://www.psiru.org/reports/2008-03-W-sewers.pdf - http://boell-latinoamerica.org/download_es/agua08_privatizacion_LA_2007.pdf - http://boell-latinoamerica.org/download_es/agua08_agua_un_servicio_publico.pdf - http://www.psiru.org/reports/2006-03-W-investment.pdf All PSIRU Reports are accessible at http://www.psiru.org/publicationsindex.asp.

Remediation technologies for heavy metal contaminated ground water

This is a major review work on ground water remediation since the earlier work of Mulligan et al published in 2001 in Engineering Geology Journal. This work resulted from the joint research project of QUB and University of Malaya on iron removal from groundwater for public water supply.

Water efficiency as a means of reducing carbon emissions in Northern Ireland (NI) Water

The water and sewerage sectors' combined emissions account for just over 1% of total UK emissions, while household water heating accounts for a further 5%. Energy use, particularly electricity, is the largest source of emissions in the sector. Water efficiency measures should therefore result in reduced emissions from a lower demand for water and wastewater treatment and pumping, as well as from decreased domestic water heating. Northern Ireland Water (NI Water) is actively pursuing measures to reduce its carbon footprint. This paper investigated the carbon impacts of implementing a household water efficiency programme in Northern Ireland. Assuming water savings of 59.6 L/prop/day and 15% uptake among households, carbon savings of 0.6% of NI Water's current net operational emissions are achievable from reduced treatment and pumping. Adding the carbon savings from reduced household water heating gives savings equivalent to 6.2% of current net operational emissions. Cost savings to NI Water are estimated as 300,000 per year. The cost of the water efficiency devices is approximately 1.6 million, but may be higher depending on the number of devices distributed relative to the number installed. This paper has shown clear carbon benefits to water efficiency, but further research is needed to examine social and cost impacts. © IWA Publishing 2013.

Postglacial water levels in the Great Lakes Region in relation to Holocene climate change : Thecamoebian and Palynological evidence /

Various lake phases have developed in the upper Great Lakes in response to isostatic adjustment and changes in water supply since the retreat of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. Georgian Bay experienced a lowstand that caused a basin wide unconformity approximately 7,500 years ago that cannot be explained by geological events. Thecamoebians are shelled protozoans abundant in freshwater environments and they are generally more sensitive to changing environmental conditions than the surrounding vegetation. Thecamoebians can be used to reconstruct the paleolimnology. The abundance of thecamoebians belonging to the genus Centropyxis, which are known to tolerate slightly brackish conditions (i.e. high concentrations of ions) records highly evaporative conditions in a closed basin. During the warmer interval (9000 to 700 yBP), the Centropyxis - dominated population diminishes and is replaced by an abundant and diverse Difflugia dominate population. Historical climate records from Tobermory and Midland, Ontario were correlated with the Lake Huron water level curve. The fossil pollen record and comparison with modem analogues allowed a paleo-water budget to be calculated for Georgian Bay. Transfer function analysis of fossil pollen data from Georgian Bay records cold, dry winters similar to modem day Minneapolis, Minnesota. Drier climates around this time are also recorded in bog environments in Southem Ontario - the drying of Lake Tonawanda and inception of paludification in Willoughby Bog, for instance, dates around 7,000 years ago. The dramatic impact of climate change on the water level in Georgian Bay underlines the importance of paleoclimatic research for predicting future environmental change in the Great Lakes.

Buried Treasure: The Economics of Leak Detection and Water Loss Prevention in Ontario

On average approximately 13% of the water that is withdrawn by Canadian municipal water suppliers is lost before it reaches final users. This is an important topic for several reasons: water losses cost money, losses force water agencies to draw more water from lakes and streams thereby putting more stress on aquatic ecosystems, leaks reduce system reliability, leaks may contribute to future pipe failures, and leaks may allow contaminants to enter water systems thereby reducing water quality and threatening the health of water users. Some benefits of leak detection fall outside water agencies’ accounting purview (e.g. reduced health risks to households connected to public water supply systems) and, as a result, may not be considered adequately in water agency decision-making. Because of the regulatory environment in which Canadian water agencies operate, some of these benefits-especially those external to the agency or those that may accrue to the agency in future time periods- may not be fully counted when agencies decide on leak detection efforts. Our analysis suggests potential reforms to promote increased efforts for leak detection: adoption of a Canada-wide goal of universal water metering; development of full-cost accounting and, pricing for water supplies; and co-operation amongst the provinces to promulgate standards for leak detection efforts and provide incentives to promote improved efficiency and rational investment decision-making.

Drinking water issues in Rural India: Need for stakeholders’ participation in Water resources management

Water is the very essential livelihood for mankind. The United Nations suggest that each person needs 20-50 litres of water a day to ensure basic needs of drinking, cooking and cleaning. It was also endorsed by the Indian National Water Policy 2002, with the provision that adequate safe drinking water facilities should be provided to the entire population both in urban and in rural areas. About 1.42 million rural habitations in India are affected by chemical contamination. The provision of clean drinking water has been given priority in the Constitution of India, in Article 47 conferring the duty of providing clean drinking water and improving public health standards to the State. Excessive dependence of ground water results in depletion of ground water, water contamination and water borne diseases. Thus, access to safe and reliable water supply is one of the serious concerns in rural water supply programme. Though government takes certain serious steps in addressing the drinking water issues in rural areas, still there is a huge gap between demand and supply. The Draft National Water Policy 2012 also states that Water quality and quantity are interlinked and need to be managed in an integrated manner and with Stakeholder participation. Water Resources Management aims at optimizing the available natural water flows, including surface water and groundwater, to satisfy competing needs. The World Bank also emphasizes on managing water resources, strengthening institutions, identifying and implementing measures of improving water governance and increasing the efficiency of water use. Therefore stakeholders’ participation is viewed important in managing water resources at different levels and range. This paper attempts to reflect up on portray the drinking water issues in rural India, and highlights the significance of Integrated Water Resource Management as the significant part of Millennium Development Goals, and Stakeholders’ participation in water resources management.

Effects of changing water availability on land use in irrigated mountain oases of Al Jabal Al Akhdar, northern Oman

In Oman, during the last three decades, agricultural water use and groundwater extraction has dramatically increased to meet the needs of a rapidly growing population and major changes in lifestyle. This has triggered agricultural land-use changes which have been poorly investigated. In view of this our study aimed at analysing patterns of shortterm land-use changes (2007-2009) in the five irrigated mountain oases of Ash Sharayjah, Al’Ayn, Al’Aqr, Qasha’ and Masayrat ar Ruwajah situated in the northern Oman Hajar mountains of Al Jabal Al Akhdar where competitive uses of irrigation water are particularly apparent. Comprehensive GIS-based field surveys were conducted over three years to record changes in terrace use in these five oases where farmers have traditionally adapted to rain-derived variations of irrigation water supply, e.g. by leaving agricultural terraces of annual crops uncultivated in drought years. Results show that the area occupied with field crops decreased in the dry years of 2008 and 2009 for all oases. In Ash Sharayjah, terrace areas grown with field crops declined from 4.7 ha (32.4 % of total terrace area) in 2007 to 3.1 ha (21.6 %) in 2008 and 3.0 ha (20.5 %) in 2009. Similarly, the area proportion of field crops shrunk in Al’Ayn, Qasha’ and Masayrat from 35.2, 36.3 and 49.6 % in 2007 to 19.8, 8.5 and 41.3 % in 2009, respectively. In Al’Aqr, the area of field crops slightly increased from 0.3 ha (17.0 %) in 2007 to 0.7 (39.1 %) in 2008, and decreased to 0.5 ha (28.8 %) in 2009. During the same period annual dry matter yields of the cash crop garlic in Ash Sharayjah increased from 16.3 t ha-1 in 2007 to 19.8 t ha-1 in 2008 and 18.3 t ha-1 in 2009, while the same crop yielded only 0.4, 1.6 and 1.1 t ha-1 in Masayrat. In 2009, the total estimated agricultural area of the new town of Sayh Qatanah above the five oases was around 13.5 ha. Our results suggest that scarcity of irrigation water as a result of low precipitation and increased irrigation and home water consumption in the new urban settlements above the five oases have led to major shifts in the land-use pattern and increasingly threaten the centuries-long tradition and drought-resilience of agriculture in the oases of the studied watershed.

The prediction of seasonal and inter-annual climate variations and their impacts on the water resources in the eastern seaboard of Thailand

The research of this thesis dissertation covers developments and applications of short-and long-term climate predictions. The short-term prediction emphasizes monthly and seasonal climate, i.e. forecasting from up to the next month over a season to up to a year or so. The long-term predictions pertain to the analysis of inter-annual- and decadal climate variations over the whole 21st century. These two climate prediction methods are validated and applied in the study area, namely, Khlong Yai (KY) water basin located in the eastern seaboard of Thailand which is a major industrial zone of the country and which has been suffering from severe drought and water shortage in recent years. Since water resources are essential for the further industrial development in this region, a thorough analysis of the potential climate change with its subsequent impact on the water supply in the area is at the heart of this thesis research. The short-term forecast of the next-season climate, such as temperatures and rainfall, offers a potential general guideline for water management and reservoir operation. To that avail, statistical models based on autoregressive techniques, i.e., AR-, ARIMA- and ARIMAex-, which includes additional external regressors, and multiple linear regression- (MLR) models, are developed and applied in the study region. Teleconnections between ocean states and the local climate are investigated and used as extra external predictors in the ARIMAex- and the MLR-model and shown to enhance the accuracy of the short-term predictions significantly. However, as the ocean state – local climate teleconnective relationships provide only a one- to four-month ahead lead time, the ocean state indices can support only a one-season-ahead forecast. Hence, GCM- climate predictors are also suggested as an additional predictor-set for a more reliable and somewhat longer short-term forecast. For the preparation of “pre-warning” information for up-coming possible future climate change with potential adverse hydrological impacts in the study region, the long-term climate prediction methodology is applied. The latter is based on the downscaling of climate predictions from several single- and multi-domain GCMs, using the two well-known downscaling methods SDSM and LARS-WG and a newly developed MLR-downscaling technique that allows the incorporation of a multitude of monthly or daily climate predictors from one- or several (multi-domain) parent GCMs. The numerous downscaling experiments indicate that the MLR- method is more accurate than SDSM and LARS-WG in predicting the recent past 20th-century (1971-2000) long-term monthly climate in the region. The MLR-model is, consequently, then employed to downscale 21st-century GCM- climate predictions under SRES-scenarios A1B, A2 and B1. However, since the hydrological watershed model requires daily-scale climate input data, a new stochastic daily climate generator is developed to rescale monthly observed or predicted climate series to daily series, while adhering to the statistical and geospatial distributional attributes of observed (past) daily climate series in the calibration phase. Employing this daily climate generator, 30 realizations of future daily climate series from downscaled monthly GCM-climate predictor sets are produced and used as input in the SWAT- distributed watershed model, to simulate future streamflow and other hydrological water budget components in the study region in a multi-realization manner. In addition to a general examination of the future changes of the hydrological regime in the KY-basin, potential future changes of the water budgets of three main reservoirs in the basin are analysed, as these are a major source of water supply in the study region. The results of the long-term 21st-century downscaled climate predictions provide evidence that, compared with the past 20th-reference period, the future climate in the study area will be more extreme, particularly, for SRES A1B. Thus, the temperatures will be higher and exhibit larger fluctuations. Although the future intensity of the rainfall is nearly constant, its spatial distribution across the region is partially changing. There is further evidence that the sequential rainfall occurrence will be decreased, so that short periods of high intensities will be followed by longer dry spells. This change in the sequential rainfall pattern will also lead to seasonal reductions of the streamflow and seasonal changes (decreases) of the water storage in the reservoirs. In any case, these predicted future climate changes with their hydrological impacts should encourage water planner and policy makers to develop adaptation strategies to properly handle the future water supply in this area, following the guidelines suggested in this study.