Spatial and temporal analysis of Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is one of the most widespread mosquito-borne diseases in Australia. The number of outbreaks and the incidence rate of BFV in Australia have attracted growing concerns about the spatio-temporal complexity and underlying risk factors of BFV disease. A large number of notifications has been recorded continuously in Queensland since 1992. Yet, little is known about the spatial and temporal characteristics of the disease. I aim to use notification data to better understand the effects of climatic, demographic, socio-economic and ecological risk factors on the spatial epidemiology of BFV disease transmission, develop predictive risk models and forecast future disease risks under climate change scenarios. Computerised data files of daily notifications of BFV disease and climatic variables in Queensland during 1992-2008 were obtained from Queensland Health and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, respectively. Projections on climate data for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 were obtained from Council of Scientific Industrial Research Organisation. Data on socio-economic, demographic and ecological factors were also obtained from relevant government departments as follows: 1) socio-economic and demographic data from Australian Bureau of Statistics; 2) wetlands data from Department of Environment and Resource Management and 3) tidal readings from Queensland Department of Transport and Main roads. Disease notifications were geocoded and spatial and temporal patterns of disease were investigated using geostatistics. Visualisation of BFV disease incidence rates through mapping reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation at statistical local areas (SLA) over time. Results reveal high incidence rates of BFV disease along coastal areas compared to the whole area of Queensland. A Mantel-Haenszel Chi-square analysis for trend reveals a statistically significant relationship between BFV disease incidence rates and age groups (ƒÓ2 = 7587, p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the state. A cluster analysis was used to detect the hot spots/clusters of BFV disease at a SLA level. Most likely spatial and space-time clusters are detected at the same locations across coastal Queensland (p<0.05). The study demonstrates heterogeneity of disease risk at a SLA level and reveals the spatial and temporal clustering of BFV disease in Queensland. Discriminant analysis was employed to establish a link between wetland classes, climate zones and BFV disease. This is because the importance of wetlands in the transmission of BFV disease remains unclear. The multivariable discriminant modelling analyses demonstrate that wetland types of saline 1, riverine and saline tidal influence were the most significant risk factors for BFV disease in all climate and buffer zones, while lacustrine, palustrine, estuarine and saline 2 and saline 3 wetlands were less important. The model accuracies were 76%, 98% and 100% for BFV risk in subtropical, tropical and temperate climate zones, respectively. This study demonstrates that BFV disease risk varied with wetland class and climate zone. The study suggests that wetlands may act as potential breeding habitats for BFV vectors. Multivariable spatial regression models were applied to assess the impact of spatial climatic, socio-economic and tidal factors on the BFV disease in Queensland. Spatial regression models were developed to account for spatial effects. Spatial regression models generated superior estimates over a traditional regression model. In the spatial regression models, BFV disease incidence shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature, low tide and distance to coast, and positive relationship with rainfall in coastal areas whereas in whole Queensland the disease shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature and high tide and positive relationship with rainfall. This study determines the most significant spatial risk factors for BFV disease across Queensland. Empirical models were developed to forecast the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks in coastal Queensland using existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions under climate change scenarios. Logistic regression models were developed using BFV disease outbreak data for the existing period (2000-2008). The most parsimonious model had high sensitivity, specificity and accuracy and this model was used to estimate and forecast BFV disease outbreaks for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 under climate change scenarios for Australia. Important contributions arising from this research are that: (i) it is innovative to identify high-risk coastal areas by creating buffers based on grid-centroid and the use of fine-grained spatial units, i.e., mesh blocks; (ii) a spatial regression method was used to account for spatial dependence and heterogeneity of data in the study area; (iii) it determined a range of potential spatial risk factors for BFV disease; and (iv) it predicted the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. In conclusion, the thesis demonstrates that the distribution of BFV disease exhibits a distinct spatial and temporal variation. Such variation is influenced by a range of spatial risk factors including climatic, demographic, socio-economic, ecological and tidal variables. The thesis demonstrates that spatial regression method can be applied to better understand the transmission dynamics of BFV disease and its risk factors. The research findings show that disease notification data can be integrated with multi-factorial risk factor data to develop build-up models and forecast future potential disease risks under climate change scenarios. This thesis may have implications in BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Surveillance of dengue fever virus: a review of epidemiological models and early warning systems

Dengue fever is one of the world’s most important vector-borne diseases. The transmission area of this disease continues to expand due to many factors including urban sprawl, increased travel and global warming. Current preventative techniques are primarily based on controlling mosquito vectors as other prophylactic measures, such as a tetravalent vaccine are unlikely to be available in the foreseeable future. However, the continually increasing dengue incidence suggests that this strategy alone is not sufficient. Epidemiological models attempt to predict future outbreaks using information on the risk factors of the disease. Through a systematic literature review, this paper aims at analyzing the different modeling methods and their outputs in terms of accurately predicting disease outbreaks. We found that many previous studies have not sufficiently accounted for the spatio-temporal features of the disease in the modeling process. Yet with advances in technology, the ability to incorporate such information as well as the socio-environmental aspect allowed for its use as an early warning system, albeit limited geographically to a local scale.

Adaptive sizing of populations and number of islands in distributed genetic algorithms

Deciding the appropriate population size and number of is- lands for distributed island-model genetic algorithms is often critical to the algorithm’s success. This paper outlines a method that automatically searches for good combinations of island population sizes and the number of islands. The method is based on a race between competing parameter sets, and collaborative seeding of new parameter sets. This method is applicable to any problem, and makes distributed genetic algorithms easier to use by reducing the number of user-set parameters. The experimental results show that the proposed method robustly and reliably finds population and islands settings that are comparable to those found with traditional trial-and-error approaches.

Structural dissection of Ebola virus and its assembly determinants using cryo-electron tomography

Ebola virus is a highly pathogenic filovirus causing severe hemorrhagic fever with high mortality rates. It assembles heterogenous, filamentous, enveloped virus particles containing a negative-sense, single-stranded RNA genome packaged within a helical nucleocapsid (NC). We have used cryo-electron microscopy and tomography to visualize Ebola virus particles, as well as Ebola virus-like particles, in three dimensions in a near-native state. The NC within the virion forms a left-handed helix with an inner nucleoprotein layer decorated with protruding arms composed of VP24 and VP35. A comparison with the closely related Marburg virus shows that the N-terminal region of nucleoprotein defines the inner diameter of the Ebola virus NC, whereas the RNA genome defines its length. Binding of the nucleoprotein to RNA can assemble a loosely coiled NC-like structure; the loose coil can be condensed by binding of the viral matrix protein VP40 to the C terminus of the nucleoprotein, and rigidified by binding of VP24 and VP35 to alternate copies of the nucleoprotein. Four proteins (NP, VP24, VP35, and VP40) are necessary and sufficient to mediate assembly of an NC with structure, symmetry, variability, and flexibility indistinguishable from that in Ebola virus particles released from infected cells. Together these data provide a structural and architectural description of Ebola virus and define the roles of viral proteins in its structure and assembly

Cryo-electron tomography of Marburg Virus particles and their morphogenesis within infected cells

Several major human pathogens, including the filoviruses, paramyxoviruses, and rhabdoviruses, package their single-stranded RNA genomes within helical nucleocapsids, which bud through the plasma membrane of the infected cell to release enveloped virions. The virions are often heterogeneous in shape, which makes it difficult to study their structure and assembly mechanisms. We have applied cryo-electron tomography and sub-tomogram averaging methods to derive structures of Marburg virus, a highly pathogenic filovirus, both after release and during assembly within infected cells. The data demonstrate the potential of cryo-electron tomography methods to derive detailed structural information for intermediate steps in biological pathways within intact cells. We describe the location and arrangement of the viral proteins within the virion. We show that the N-terminal domain of the nucleoprotein contains the minimal assembly determinants for a helical nucleocapsid with variable number of proteins per turn. Lobes protruding from alternate interfaces between each nucleoprotein are formed by the C-terminal domain of the nucleoprotein, together with viral proteins VP24 and VP35. Each nucleoprotein packages six RNA bases. The nucleocapsid interacts in an unusual, flexible "Velcro-like" manner with the viral matrix protein VP40. Determination of the structures of assembly intermediates showed that the nucleocapsid has a defined orientation during transport and budding. Together the data show striking architectural homology between the nucleocapsid helix of rhabdoviruses and filoviruses, but unexpected, fundamental differences in the mechanisms by which the nucleocapsids are then assembled together with matrix proteins and initiate membrane envelopment to release infectious virions, suggesting that the viruses have evolved different solutions to these conserved assembly steps.

Detection of banana bunchy top virus in virus-infected plants using polymerase chain reaction

Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was developed for the detection of Banana bunchy top virus (BBTV) at maximum after 210 min and at minimum after 90 min using Pc-1 and Pc-2, respectively. PCR detection of BBTV in crude sap indicated that the freezing of banana tissue in liquid nitrogen (LN2) before extraction was more effective than using sand as the extraction technique. BBTV was also detected using PCR assay in 69 healthy and diseased plants using Na-PO4 buffer containing 1 % SDS. PCR detection of BBTV in nucleic acid extracts using seven different extraction buffers to adapt the use of PCR in routine detection in the field was studied. Results proved that BBTV was detected with high sensitivity in nucleic acid extracts more than in infectious sap. The results also suggested the common aetiology for the BBTV by the PCR reactions of BBTV in nucleic acid extracts from Australia, Burundi, Egypt, France, Gabon, Philippines and Taiwan. Results also proved a positive relation between the Egyptian-BBTV isolate and abaca bunchy top isolate from the Philippines, but there no relation was found with the Cucumber mosaic cucumovirus (CMV) isolates from Egypt and Philippines and Banana bract mosaic virus (BBMV) were found.

Wetlands, climate zones and Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is the second most common mosquito-borne disease in Australia, but the linkages of the wetlands and climate zones with BFV transmission remain unclear. We aimed to examine the relationship between the wetlands, climate zones and BFV risk in Queensland, Australia. Data on the wetlands, climate zones, population and BFV cases for the period 1992 to 2008 were obtained from relevant government agencies. BFV risk was grouped as low-, medium- and high-level based on BFV incidence percentiles. The buffer zones around each BFV case were made using 1, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 50 km distances. We performed a discriminant analysis to determine the differences between wetland classes and BFV risk within each climate zone. The discriminant analyses show that saline 1, riverine and saline tidal influence were the most significant contributors to BFV risk in all climate and buffer zones, while lacustrine, palustrine, estuarine and saline 2 and saline 3 wetlands were less important. These models had classification accuracies of 76%, 98% and 100% for BFV risk in subtropical, tropical and temperate climate zones, respectively. This study demonstrates that BFV risk varies with wetland class and climate zone. The discriminant analysis is a useful tool to quantify the links between wetlands, climate zones and BFV risk.

An influenza virus inspired polymer system for the timed release of siRNA

Small interfering RNA silences specific genes by interfering with mRNA translation, and acts to modulate or inhibit specific biological pathways; a therapy that holds great promise in the cure of many diseases. However, the naked small interfering RNA is susceptible to degradation by plasma and tissue nucleases and due to its negative charge unable to cross the cell membrane. Here we report a new polymer carrier designed to mimic the influenza virus escape mechanism from the endosome, followed by a timed release of the small interfering RNA in the cytosol through a self-catalyzed polymer degradation process. Our polymer changes to a negatively charged and non-toxic polymer after the release of small interfering RNA, presenting potential for multiple repeat doses and long-term treatment of diseases.

Hepatitis C : a socio-cultural perspective on the effects of a new virus on a community’s health

Since the emergence of diagnostic medical tests in Australia in 1990, hepatitis C (HCV) has been shown to account for over 90 percent of all non-A non-B hepatitis, revealing it to be a widespread and major public health problem. The diagnosis of HCV involves a diverse range of issues for affected persons, introducing identity and lifestyle changes, which are commonly articulated through psychological concepts. In this article we argue that it is important to examine the broader social and cultural contexts that contribute to the experiences of persons affected by HCV. The thematic analysis of qualitative data from six individuals diagnosed with HCV is included to exemplify some of the processes that are involved in the changing identity of a person following a positive diagnosis. The theoretical framework for the interpretation of these processes is interpretive interactionism. In this research, we are attempting to extend the understanding of the effects of HCV diagnoses beyond internal, psychological processes by examining how these diagnoses transform some of the processes of self-formation and expression. The participants’ experiences indicate that there are at least four dimensions of self that were significant to their changing sense of self: relationship of self to others; the emotional self; self-stories and identity; and self-scrutiny and relationships. We conclude that a socio-cultural perspective contributes to the explanation of the transition period following a HCV-positive diagnosis and the redefinition of self towards a HCV status.

Recent emergence of dengue virus serotype 4 in French Polynesia results from multiple introductions from other south pacific islands

BACKGROUND: Infection by dengue virus (DENV) is a major public health concern in hundreds of tropical and subtropical countries. French Polynesia (FP) regularly experiences epidemics that initiate, or are consecutive to, DENV circulation in other South Pacific Island Countries (SPICs). In January 2009, after a decade of serotype 1 (DENV-1) circulation, the first cases of DENV-4 infection were reported in FP. Two months later a new epidemic emerged, occurring about 20 years after the previous circulation of DENV-4 in FP. In this study, we investigated the epidemiological and molecular characteristics of the introduction, spread and genetic microevolution of DENV-4 in FP. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Epidemiological data suggested that recent transmission of DENV-4 in FP started in the Leeward Islands and this serotype quickly displaced DENV-1 throughout FP. Phylogenetic analyses of the nucleotide sequences of the envelope (E) gene of 64 DENV-4 strains collected in FP in the 1980s and in 2009-2010, and some additional strains from other SPICs showed that DENV-4 strains from the SPICs were distributed into genotypes IIa and IIb. Recent FP strains were distributed into two clusters, each comprising viruses from other but distinct SPICs, suggesting that emergence of DENV-4 in FP in 2009 resulted from multiple introductions. Otherwise, we observed that almost all strains collected in the SPICs in the 1980s exhibit an amino acid (aa) substitution V287I within domain I of the E protein, and all recent South Pacific strains exhibit a T365I substitution within domain III. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This study confirmed the cyclic re-emergence and displacement of DENV serotypes in FP. Otherwise, our results showed that specific aa substitutions on the E protein were present on all DENV-4 strains circulating in SPICs. These substitutions probably acquired and subsequently conserved could reflect a founder effect to be associated with epidemiological, geographical, eco-biological and social specificities in SPICs.

Phylodynamic analysis of the emergence and epidemiological impact of transmissible defective dengue viruses

Intra-host sequence data from RNA viruses have revealed the ubiquity of defective viruses in natural viral populations, sometimes at surprisingly high frequency. Although defective viruses have long been known to laboratory virologists, their relevance in clinical and epidemiological settings has not been established. The discovery of long-term transmission of a defective lineage of dengue virus type 1 (DENV-1) in Myanmar, first seen in 2001, raised important questions about the emergence of transmissible defective viruses and their role in viral epidemiology. By combining phylogenetic analyses and dynamical modelling, we investigate how evolutionary and ecological processes at the intra-host and inter-host scales shaped the emergence and spread of the defective DENV-1 lineage. We show that this lineage of defective viruses emerged between June 1998 and February 2001, and that the defective virus was transmitted primarily through co-transmission with the functional virus to uninfected individuals. We provide evidence that, surprisingly, this co-transmission route has a higher transmission potential than transmission of functional dengue viruses alone. Consequently, we predict that the defective lineage should increase overall incidence of dengue infection, which could account for the historically high dengue incidence reported in Myanmar in 2001-2002. Our results show the unappreciated potential for defective viruses to impact the epidemiology of human pathogens, possibly by modifying the virulence-transmissibility trade-off, or to emerge as circulating infections in their own right. They also demonstrate that interactions between viral variants, such as complementation, can open new pathways to viral emergence.

A systematic review of naturalistic interventions in refugee populations

Naturalistic interventions with refugee populations examine outcomes following mental health interventions in existing refugee service organisations. The current review aimed to examine outcomes of naturalistic interventions and quality of the naturalistic intervention literature in refugee populations with the view to highlight the strengths and limitations of naturalistic intervention studies. Database search was conducted using the search terms ‘refugee’, ‘asylum seeker’, ‘treatment’, ‘therapy’ and ‘intervention. No date limitations were applied, but searches were limited to articles written in English. Seven studies were identified that assessed the outcome of naturalistic interventions on adult refugees or asylum seekers in a country of resettlement using quantitative outcome measures. Results showed significant variation in the outcomes of naturalistic intervention studies, with a trend towards showing decreased symptomatology at post-intervention. However, conclusions are limited by methodological problems of the studies reviewed, particularly poor documentation of intervention methods and lack of control in the design of naturalistic intervention studies. Further examination of outcomes following naturalistic interventions is needed with studies which focus on increasing the rigour of the outcome assessment process.

Cell migration and proliferation on homogeneous and non-homogeneous domains : modelling on the scale of individuals and populations

Cell migration is a behaviour critical to many key biological effects, including wound healing, cancerous cell invasion and morphogenesis, the development of an organism from an embryo. However, given that each of these situations is distinctly different and cells are extremely complicated biological objects, interest lies in more basic experiments which seek to remove conflating factors and present a less complex environment within which cell migration can be experimentally examined. These include in vitro studies like the scratch assay or circle migration assay, and ex vivo studies like the colonisation of the hindgut by neural crest cells. The reduced complexity of these experiments also makes them much more enticing as problems to mathematically model, like done here. The primary goal of the mathematical models used in this thesis is to shed light on which cellular behaviours work to generate the travelling waves of invasion observed in these experiments, and to explore how variations in these behaviours can potentially predict differences in this invasive pattern which are experimentally observed when cell types or chemical environment are changed. Relevant literature has already identified the difficulty of distinguishing between these behaviours when using traditional mathematical biology techniques operating on a macroscopic scale, and so here a sophisticated individual-cell-level model, an extension of the Cellular Potts Model (CPM), is been constructed and used to model a scratch assay experiment. This model includes a novel mechanism for dealing with cell proliferations that allowed for the differing properties of quiescent and proliferative cells to be implemented into their behaviour. This model is considered both for its predictive power and used to make comparisons with the travelling waves which result in more traditional macroscopic simulations. These comparisons demonstrate a surprising amount of agreement between the two modelling frameworks, and suggest further novel modifications to the CPM that would allow it to better model cell migration. Considerations of the model’s behaviour are used to argue that the dominant effect governing cell migration (random motility or signal-driven taxis) likely depends on the sort of invasion demonstrated by cells, as easily seen by microscopic photography. Additionally, a scratch assay simulated on a non-homogeneous domain consisting of a ’fast’ and ’slow’ region is also used to further differentiate between these different potential cell motility behaviours. A heterogeneous domain is a novel situation which has not been considered mathematically in this context, nor has it been constructed experimentally to the best of the candidate’s knowledge. Thus this problem serves as a thought experiment used to test the conclusions arising from the simulations on homogeneous domains, and to suggest what might be observed should this non-homogeneous assay situation be experimentally realised. Non-intuitive cell invasion patterns are predicted for diffusely-invading cells which respond to a cell-consumed signal or nutrient, contrasted with rather expected behaviour in the case of random-motility-driven invasion. The potential experimental observation of these behaviours is demonstrated by the individual-cell-level model used in this thesis, which does agree with the PDE model in predicting these unexpected invasion patterns. In the interest of examining such a case of a non-homogeneous domain experimentally, some brief suggestion is made as to how this could be achieved.

A city for all citizens : integrating children and youth from marginalized populations into city planning

Socially just, intergenerational urban spaces should not only accommodate children and adolescents, but engage them as participants in the planning and design of welcoming spaces. With this goal, city agencies in Boulder, Colorado, the Boulder Valley School District, the Children, Youth and Environments Center at the University of Colorado, and a number of community organizations have been working in partnership to integrate young people’s ideas and concerns into the redesign of parks and civic areas and the identification of issues for city planning. Underlying their work is a commitment to the Convention on the Rights of the Child and children’s rights to active citizenship from a young age. This paper describes approaches used to engage with young people and methods of participation, and reflects on lessons learned about how to most effectively involve youth from underrepresented populations and embed diverse youth voices into the culture of city planning.

Evaluation of the Suchey-Brooks method for aging Australian Caucasian Populations using multislice Computed Tomography reconstructions of the Pubic Symphyseal Surface

Establishing age-at-death for skeletal remains is a vital component of forensic anthropology. The Suchey-Brooks (S-B) method of age estimation has been widely utilised since 1986 and relies on a visual assessment of the pubic symphyseal surface in comparison to a series of casts. Inter-population studies (Kimmerle et al., 2005; Djuric et al., 2007; Sakaue, 2006) demonstrate limitations of the S-B method, however, no assessment of this technique specific to Australian populations has been published. Aim: This investigation assessed the accuracy and applicability of the S-B method to an adult Australian Caucasian population by highlighting error rates associated with this technique. Methods: Computed tomography (CT) and contact scans of the S-B casts were performed; each geometrically modelled surface was extracted and quantified for reference purposes. A Queensland skeletal database for Caucasian remains aged 15 – 70 years was initiated at the Queensland Health Forensic and Scientific Services – Forensic Pathology Mortuary (n=350). Three-dimensional reconstruction of the bone surface using innovative volume visualisation protocols in Amira® and Rapidform® platforms was performed. Samples were allocated into 11 sub-sets of 5-year age intervals and changes associated with the surface geometry were quantified in relation to age, gender and asymmetry. Results: Preliminary results indicate that computational analysis was successfully applied to model morphological surface changes. Significant differences in observed versus actual ages were noted. Furthermore, initial morphological assessment demonstrates significant bilateral asymmetry of the pubic symphysis, which is unaccounted for in the S-B method. These results propose refinements to the S-B method, when applied to Australian casework. Conclusion: This investigation promises to transform anthropological analysis to be more quantitative and less invasive using CT imaging. The overarching goal contributes to improving skeletal identification and medico-legal death investigation in the coronial process by narrowing the range of age-at-death estimation in a biological profile.