Recent climatic trends and linkages to river discharge in Central Vietnam

In this study, change in rainfall, temperature and river discharge are analysed over the last three decades in Central Vietnam. Trends and rainfall indices are evaluated using non-parametric tests at different temporal levels. To overcome the sparse locally available network, the high resolution APHRODITE gridded dataset is used in addition to the existing rain gauges. Finally, existing linkages between discharge changes and trends in rainfall and temperature are explored. Results are indicative of an intensification of rainfall (+15%/decade), with more extreme and longer events. A significant increase in winter rainfall and a decrease in consecutive dry days provides strong evidence for a lengthening wet season in Central Vietnam. In addition, trends based on APHRODITE suggest a strong orographic signal in winter and annual trends. These results underline the local variability in the impacts of climatic change at the global scale. Consequently, it is important that change detection investigations are conducted at the local scale. A very weak signal is detected in the trend of minimum temperature (+0.2°C/decade). River discharge trends show an increase in mean discharge (31 to 35%/decade) over the last decades. Between 54 and 74% of this increase is explained by the increase in precipitation. The maximum discharge also responds significantly to precipitation changes leading to a lengthened wet season and an increase in extreme rainfall events. Such trends can be linked with a likely increase in floods in Central Vietnam, which is important for future adaptation planning and management and flood preparedness in the region. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Participatory research approaches in the development of improved management practices in indigenous chickens production systems with smallholder farmers in Kenya

This thesis is concerned with development of improved management practices in indigenous chicken production systems in a research process that includes participatory approaches with smallholder farmers and other stakeholders in Kenya. The research process involved a wide range of activities that included on-station experiments, field surveys, stakeholder consultations in workshops, seminars and visits, and on-farm farmer participatory research to evaluate the effect of some improved management interventions on production performance of indigenous chickens. The participatory research was greatly informed from collective experiences and lessons of the previous activities. The on-station studies focused on hatching, growth and nutritional characteristics of the indigenous chickens. Four research publications from these studies are included in this thesis. Quantitative statistical analyses were applied and they involved use of growth models estimated with non-linear regressions for the growth characteristics, chi-square determinations to investigate differences among different reciprocal crosses of indigenous chickens and general linear models and covariance determination for the nutrition study. The on-station studies brought greater understanding of performance and production characteristics of indigenous chickens and the influence of management practices on these characteristics. The field surveys and stakeholder consultations helped in understanding the overarching issues affecting the productivity of the indigenous chickens systems and their place in the livelihoods of smallholder farmers. These activities created strong networking opportunities with stakeholders from a wide spectrum. The on-farm farmer participatory research involved selection of 200 farmers in five regions followed by training and introduction of interventions on improved management practices which included housing, vaccination, deworming and feed supplementation. Implementation and monitoring was mainly done by individual farmers continuously for close to one and half years. Six quarterly visits to the farms were made by the research team to monitor and provide support for on-going project activities. The data collected has been analysed for 5 consecutive 3-monthly periods. Descriptive and inferential statistics were applied to analyse the data collected involving treatment applications, production characteristics and flock demography characteristics. Out of the 200 farmers initially selected, 173 had records on treatment applications and flock demography characteristics while 127 farmers had records on production characteristics. The demographic analysis with a dissimilarity index of flock size produced 7 distinct farm groups from among the 173 farms. Two of these farm groups were represented in similar numbers in each of the five regions. The research process also involved a number of dissemination and communication strategies that have brought the process and project outcomes into the domain of accessibility by wider readership locally and globally. These include workshops, seminars, field visits and consultations, local and international conferences, electronic conferencing, publications and personal communication via emailing and conventional posting. A number of research and development proposals were also developed based on the knowledge and experiences gained from the research process. The thesis captures the research process activities and outcomes in 8 chapters which include in ascending order – introduction, theoretical concepts underpinning FPR, research methodology and process, on-station research output, FPR descriptive statistical analysis, FPR inferential statistical analysis on production characteristics, FPR demographic analysis and conclusions. Various research approaches both quantitative and qualitative have been applied in the research process indicating the possibilities and importance of combining both systems for greater understanding of issues being studied. In our case, participatory studies of the improved management of indigenous chickens indicates their potential importance as livelihood assets for poor people.

Investigating the value dairy farmers place on a reduction of lameness in their herds using a willingness to pay approach

A survey was conducted to elicit dairy farmers’ willingness to pay (WTP) to reduce the prevalence of lameness in their herds. A choice experiment questionnaire was administered using face-to-face interviews of 163 farmers in England and Wales. Whole herd lameness assessments by trained researchers recorded a mean lameness prevalence of nearly 24% which was substantially higher than that estimated by farmers. Farmers’ responses to a series of attitudinal questions showed that they strongly agreed that cows can suffer a lot of pain from lameness and believed that they could reduce lameness in their herds. Farmers’ mean WTP to avoid lameness amounted to UK£411 per lame cow but with considerable variation across the sample. Median WTP of UK£249 per lame cow was considered a better measure of central tendency for the sample. In addition, the survey found that farmers had a substantial WTP to avoid the inconvenience associated with lameness control (a median value of UK£97 per lame cow) but that they were generally prepared to incur greater inconvenience if it reduced lameness. The study findings suggest that farmers need a better understanding of the scale and costs of lameness in their herds and the benefits of control. To encourage action, farmers need to be convinced that lameness control measures perceived as inconvenient will be cost effective.

From farmers’ perspective : pesticide use and pest control

Many studies have shown that farmers in developing countries often overuse pesticides and do not adopt safety practices. Policies and interventions to promote a safer use of pesticides are often based on a limited understanding of the farmers’ own perspective of pesticide use. This often results in ineffective policies and the persistence of significant pesticide-related health and environmental problems, especially in developing countries. This chapter explores potentials and limitations of different approaches to study pesticide use in agriculture from the farmers’ perspective. In contrast to the reductionist and mono-disciplinary approaches often adopted, this chapter calls for integrative methodological approaches to provide a realistic and thorough understanding of the farmers’ perspective on pesticide use and illustrates the added value of such an approach with three case studies of pesticide use in Iran, India, and Colombia.

Transaction costs, information technologies and the choice of marketplace among farmers in Northern Ghana

Using a transactions costs framework, we examine the impact of information and communication technologies (mobile phones and radios) use on market participation in developing country agricultural markets using a novel transaction-level data set of Ghanaian farmers. Our analysis of the choice of markets by farmers suggests that market information from a broader range of markets may not always induce farmers to sell in more distant markets; instead farmers may use broader market information to enhance their bargaining power in closer markets. Finally, we find weak evidence on the impact of using mobile phones in attracting farm gate buyers.

The extent to which potential benefits to EU farmers of adopting transgenic crops are reduced by cost of compliance with coexistence regulations

This article forecasts the extent to which the potential benefits of adopting transgenic crops may be reduced by costs of compliance with coexistence regulations applicable in various member states of the EU. A dynamic economic model is described and used to calculate the potential yield and gross margin of a set of crops grown in a selection of typical rotation scenarios. The model simulates varying levels of pest, weed, and drought pressures, with associated management strategies regarding pesticide and herbicide application, and irrigation. We report on the initial use of the model to calculate the net reduction in gross margin attributable to coexistence costs for insect-resistant (IR) and herbicide-tolerant (HT) maize grown continuously or in a rotation, HT soya grown in a rotation, HT oilseed rape grown in a rotation, and HT sugarbeet grown in a rotation. Conclusions are drawn about conditions favoring inclusion of a transgenic crop in a crop rotation, having regard to farmers’ attitude toward risk.

Determinants of biosecurity behaviour of British cattle and sheep farmers: a behavioural economics analysis

The paper analyses the impact of a priori determinants of biosecurity behaviour of farmers in Great Britain. We use a dataset collected through a stratified telephone survey of 900 cattle and sheep farmers in Great Britain (400 in England and a further 250 in Wales and Scotland respectively) which took place between 25 March 2010 and 18 June 2010. The survey was stratified by farm type, farm size and region. To test the influence of a priori determinants on biosecurity behaviour we used a behavioural economics method, structural equation modelling (SEM) with observed and latent variables. SEM is a statistical technique for testing and estimating causal relationships amongst variables, some of which may be latent using a combination of statistical data and qualitative causal assumptions. Thirteen latent variables were identified and extracted, expressing the behaviour and the underlying determining factors. The variables were: experience, economic factors, organic certification of farm, membership in a cattle/sheep health scheme, perceived usefulness of biosecurity information sources, knowledge about biosecurity measures, perceived importance of specific biosecurity strategies, perceived effect (on farm business in the past five years) of welfare/health regulation, perceived effect of severe outbreaks of animal diseases, attitudes towards livestock biosecurity, attitudes towards animal welfare, influence on decision to apply biosecurity measures and biosecurity behaviour. The SEM model applied on the Great Britain sample has an adequate fit according to the measures of absolute, incremental and parsimonious fit. The results suggest that farmers’ perceived importance of specific biosecurity strategies, organic certification of farm, knowledge about biosecurity measures, attitudes towards animal welfare, perceived usefulness of biosecurity information sources, perceived effect on business during the past five years of severe outbreaks of animal diseases, membership in a cattle/sheep health scheme, attitudes towards livestock biosecurity, influence on decision to apply biosecurity measures, experience and economic factors are significantly influencing behaviour (overall explaining 64% of the variance in behaviour).

Farmers' interest in growing GM crops in the UK, in the context of a range of on-farm coexistence issues

Although no GM crops currently are licensed for commercial production in the UK, as opposition to GM crops by consumers softens, this could change quickly. Although past studies have examined attitudes of UK farmers toward GM technologies in general, there has been little work on the impact of possible coexistence measures on their attitudes toward GM crop production. This could be because the UK Government has not engaged in any public dialogue on the coexistence measures that might be applied on farms. Based on a farm survey, this article examines farmers’ attitudes toward GM technologies and planting intentions for three crops (maize, oilseed rape, and sugar beet) based on a GM availability scenario. The article then nuances this analysis with a review of farmer perceptions of the level of constraint associated with a suite of notional farm-level coexistence measures and issues, based on current European Commission guidelines and practice in other EU Member States.

Observed climate variations and change in Vietnam

In this study, observed changes of temperature, rainfall, and some extreme climate indices in Vietnam were investigated by using daily observations during the period 1961-2012. The observed data were collected from 80 meteorological stations for temperature, and from 170 stations for rainfall over the seven climatological sub-regions of Vietnam. Results show that there were insignificant differences between the trends of changes obtained from the 1961-2011 and 1979-2012 periods. Near-surface temperature, including mean (T2m), maximum (Tx) and minimum temperature (Tm), increased consistently at almost all stations. Tm increased faster than Tx. Temperature also increased faster in winter than in summer. Consequently, the number of hot days and warm nights increased whereas the number of cold days, cold nights and cool days decreased. In the northern regions, temperature tended to slightly decrease in May but significantly increased in June. Annual rainfall decreased in the northern area of Vietnam, while it increased at almost all stations in the central regions, and had insignificant trends in the southern sub-region. Changes in some extreme rainfall indices were likely consistent with changes in annual rainfall. Monthly rainfall in the central regions significantly increased from August to December. Rainfall generally increased in May and decreased in June over almost all country.

Climate change projections and selected impacts for Vietnam

In September 2013, the 5th Assessment Report (5AR) of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been released. Taking the 5AR cli-mate change scenarios into account, the World Bank published an earli-er report on climate change and its impacts on selected hot spot re-gions, including Southeast Asia. Currently, dynamical and statistical-dynamical downscaling efforts are underway to obtain higher resolution and more robust regional climate change projections for tropical South-east Asia, including Vietnam. Such initiatives are formalized under the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Coordinated Regional Dynamic Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) East Asia and Southeast Asia and also take place in climate change impact projects such as the joint Vietnam-ese-German project “Environmental and Water Protection Technologies of Coastal Zones in Vietnam (EWATEC-COAST)”. In this contribution, the lat-est assessments for changes in temperature, precipitation, sea level, and tropical cyclones (TCs) under the 5AR Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 are reviewed. Special emphasis is put on changes in extreme events like heat waves and/or heavy precipita-tion. A regional focus is Vietnam south of 16°N. A continued increase in mean near surface temperature is projected, reaching up to 5°C at the end of this century in northern Vietnam un-der the high greenhouse-gas forcing scenario RCP8.5. Overall, project-ed changes in annual precipitation are small, but there is a tendency of more rainfall in the boreal winter dry season. Unprecedented heat waves and an increase in extreme precipitation events are projected by both global and regional climate models. Globally, TCs are projected to decrease in number, but an increase in intensity of peak winds and rain-fall in the inner core region is estimated. Though an assessment of changes in land-falling frequency in Vietnam is uncertain due to difficul-ties in assessing changes in TC tracks, some work indicates a reduction in the number of land-falling TCs in Vietnam. Sea level may rise by 75-100 cm until the end of the century with the Vietnamese coastline experienc-ing 10-15% higher rise than on global average. Given the large rice and aquaculture production in the Mekong and Red River Deltas, that are both prone to TC-related storm surges and flooding, this poses a challenge to foodsecurity and protection of coastal population and assets.

Uptake of agri-environmental schemes in the Less-Favoured Areas of Greece: The role of corruption and farmers' responses to the financial crisis

Vine-growing in the Less-Favoured Areas of Greece is facing multiple challenges that might lead to its abandonment. In an attempt to maintain rural populations, Rural Development Schemes have been created that offer the opportunity to rural households to maintain or expand their farming businesses including vine-growing. This paper stems from a study that used data from a cross-sectional survey of 204 farmers to investigate how farming systems and farmers’ perception of corruption, amongst other socio-economic factors, affected their decisions to continue vine-growing through participation in Rural Development Schemes, in three remote Less-Favoured Areas of Greece. The Theory of Planned Behaviour was used to frame the research problem with the assumption being that an individual’s intention to participate in a Scheme is based on their prior beliefs about it. Data from the survey were reduced and simplified by the use of non-linear principal component analysis. The ensuing variables were used in selectivity corrected ordered probit models to reveal farmers’ attitudes towards viticulture and rural development. It was found that economic factors, perceived corruption and farmers’ attitudes were significant determinants on whether to participate in the Schemes. The research findings highlight the important role of perceived corruption and the need for policies that facilitate farmers’ access to decision making centres.

Social and ecological drivers of success in agri-environment schemes: the roles of farmers and environmental context

1. Agri-environment schemes remain a controversial approach to reversing biodiversity losses, partly because the drivers of variation in outcomes are poorly understood. In particular, there is a lack of studies that consider both social and ecological factors. 2. We analysed variation across 48 farms in the quality and biodiversity outcomes of agri-environmental habitats designed to provide pollen and nectar for bumblebees and butterflies or winter seed for birds. We used interviews and ecological surveys to gather data on farmer experience and understanding of agri-environment schemes, and local and landscape environmental factors. 3. Multimodel inference indicated social factors had a strong impact on outcomes and that farmer experiential learning was a key process. The quality of the created habitat was affected positively by the farmer’s previous experience in environmental management. The farmer’s confidence in their ability to carry out the required management was negatively related to the provision of floral resources. Farmers with more wildlife-friendly motivations tended to produce more floral resources, but fewer seed resources. 4. Bird, bumblebee and butterfly biodiversity responses were strongly affected by the quantity of seed or floral resources. Shelter enhanced biodiversity directly, increased floral resources and decreased seed yield. Seasonal weather patterns had large effects on both measures. Surprisingly, larger species pools and amounts of semi-natural habitat in the surrounding landscape had negative effects on biodiversity, which may indicate use by fauna of alternative foraging resources. 5. Synthesis and application. This is the first study to show a direct role of farmer social variables on the success of agri-environment schemes in supporting farmland biodiversity. It suggests that farmers are not simply implementing agri-environment options, but are learning and improving outcomes by doing so. Better engagement with farmers and working with farmers who have a history of environmental management may therefore enhance success. The importance of a number of environmental factors may explain why agri-environment outcomes are variable, and suggests some – such as the weather – cannot be controlled. Others, such as shelter, could be incorporated into agri-environment prescriptions. The role of landscape factors remains complex and currently eludes simple conclusions about large-scale targeting of schemes.

Factors affecting dairy farmers' attitudes towards antimicrobial medicine usage in cattle in England and Wales

There has been growing concern about bacterial resistance to antimicrobials in the farmed livestock sector. Attention has turned to sub-optimal use of antimicrobials as a driver of resistance. Recent reviews have identified a lack of data on the pattern of antimicrobial use as an impediment to the design of measures to tackle this growing problem. This paper reports on a study that explored use of antibiotics by dairy farmers and factors influencing their decision-making around this usage. We found that respondents had either recently reduced their use of antibiotics, or planned to do so. Advice from their veterinarian was instrumental in this. Over 70% thought reducing antibiotic usage would be a good thing to do. The most influential source of information used was their own veterinarian. Some 50% were unaware of the available guidelines on use in cattle production. However, 97% thought it important to keep treatment records. The Theory of Planned Behaviour was used to identify dairy farmers’ drivers and barriers to reduce use of antibiotics. Intention to reduce usage was weakly correlated with current and past practice of antibiotic use, whilst the strongest driver was respondents’ belief that their social and advisory network would approve of them doing this. The higher the proportion of income from milk production and the greater the chance of remaining in milk production, the significantly higher the likelihood of farmers exhibiting positive intention to reduce antibiotic usage. Such farmers may be more commercially minded than others and thus more cost-conscious or, perhaps, more aware of possible future restrictions. Strong correlation was found between farmers’ perception of their social referents’ beliefs and farmers’ intent to reduce antibiotic use. Policy makers should target these social referents, especially veterinarians, with information on the benefits from, and the means to, achieving reductions in antibiotic usage. Information on sub-optimal use of antibiotics as a driver of resistance in dairy herds and in humans along with advice on best farm practice to minimise risk of disease and ensure animal welfare, complemented with data on potential cost savings from reduced antibiotic use would help improve poor practice.

Farmers’ perceptions of the effectiveness of the Cocoa Disease and Pest Control Programme (CODAPEC) in Ghana and its effects on poverty reduction

The study examined the contribution of the Cocoa Disease and Pest Control Programme (CODAPEC), which is a cocoa production-enhancing government policy, to reducing poverty and raising the living standards of cocoa farmers in Ghana. One hundred and fifty (150) cocoa farmers were randomly selected from five communities in the Bibiani-Anhwiaso-Bekwai district of the Western Region of Ghana and interviewed using structured questionnaires. Just over half of the farmers (53%) perceived the CODAPEC programme as being effective in controlling pests and diseases, whilst 56.6% felt that their yields and hence livelihoods had improved. In some cases pesticides or fungicides were applied later in the season than recommended and this had a detrimental effect on yields. To determine the level of poverty amongst farmers, annual household consumption expenditure was used as a proxy indicator. The study found that 4.7% of cocoa farmers were extremely poor having a total annual household consumption expenditure of less than GH¢ 623.10 ($310.00) while 8.0% were poor with less than GH¢ 801.62 ($398.81). An amount of money ranging from GH¢ 20.00 ($9.95) to GH¢ 89.04 ($44.29) per annum was needed to lift the 4.7% of cocoa farmers out of extreme poverty, which could be achieved through modest increases in productivity. The study highlighted how agricultural intervention programmes, such as CODAPEC, have the potential to contribute to improved farmer livelihoods.