Subclinical hyperthyroidism and the risk of coronary heart disease and mortality.

BACKGROUND: Data from prospective cohort studies regarding the association between subclinical hyperthyroidism and cardiovascular outcomes are conflicting.We aimed to assess the risks of total and coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality, CHD events, and atrial fibrillation (AF) associated with endogenous subclinical hyperthyroidism among all available large prospective cohorts. METHODS: Individual data on 52 674 participants were pooled from 10 cohorts. Coronary heart disease events were analyzed in 22 437 participants from 6 cohorts with available data, and incident AF was analyzed in 8711 participants from 5 cohorts. Euthyroidism was defined as thyrotropin level between 0.45 and 4.49 mIU/L and endogenous subclinical hyperthyroidism as thyrotropin level lower than 0.45 mIU/L with normal free thyroxine levels, after excluding those receiving thyroid-altering medications. RESULTS: Of 52 674 participants, 2188 (4.2%) had subclinical hyperthyroidism. During follow-up, 8527 participants died (including 1896 from CHD), 3653 of 22 437 had CHD events, and 785 of 8711 developed AF. In age- and sex-adjusted analyses, subclinical hyperthyroidism was associated with increased total mortality (hazard ratio[HR], 1.24, 95% CI, 1.06-1.46), CHD mortality (HR,1.29; 95% CI, 1.02-1.62), CHD events (HR, 1.21; 95%CI, 0.99-1.46), and AF (HR, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.16-2.43).Risks did not differ significantly by age, sex, or preexisting cardiovascular disease and were similar after further adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors, with attributable risk of 14.5% for total mortality to 41.5% forAF in those with subclinical hyperthyroidism. Risks for CHD mortality and AF (but not other outcomes) were higher for thyrotropin level lower than 0.10 mIU/L compared with thyrotropin level between 0.10 and 0.44 mIU/L(for both, P value for trend, .03). CONCLUSION: Endogenous subclinical hyperthyroidism is associated with increased risks of total, CHD mortality, and incident AF, with highest risks of CHD mortality and AF when thyrotropin level is lower than 0.10 mIU/L.

Dynamic Option Adjusted Spread and the Value of Mortgage Backed Securities (Draft 2)

We extend a reduced form model for pricing pass-through mortgage backed securities (MBS) and provide a novel hedging tool for investors in this market. To calculate the price of an MBS, traders use what is known as option-adjusted spread (OAS). The resulting OAS value represents the required basis points adjustment to reference curve discounting rates needed to match an observed market price. The OAS suffers from some drawbacks. For example, it remains constant until the maturity of the bond (thirty years in mortgage-backed securities), and does not incorporate interest rate volatility. We suggest instead what we call dynamic option adjusted spread (DOAS), which allows investors in the mortgage market to account for both prepayment risk and changes of the yield curve.

On monetary policy and stock market anomalies

This study utilizes a macro-based VAR framework to investigate whether stock portfolios formedon the basis of their value, size and past performance characteristics are affected in a differentialmanner by unexpected US monetary policy actions during the period 1967-2007. Full sample results show that value, small capitalization and past loser stocks are more exposed to monetary policy shocks in comparison to growth, big capitalization and past winner stocks. Subsample analysis, motivated by variation in the realized premia and parameter instability, reveals that monetary policy shocks’ impact on these portfolios is significant and pronounced only during the pre-1983 period.

Context-dependent interpretation of the prognostic value of BRAF and KRAS mutations in colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: The mutation status of the BRAF and KRAS genes has been proposed as prognostic biomarker in colorectal cancer. Of them, only the BRAF V600E mutation has been validated independently as prognostic for overall survival and survival after relapse, while the prognostic value of KRAS mutation is still unclear. We investigated the prognostic value of BRAF and KRAS mutations in various contexts defined by stratifications of the patient population. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed a cohort of patients with stage II and III colorectal cancer from the PETACC-3 clinical trial (N = 1,423), by assessing the prognostic value of the BRAF and KRAS mutations in subpopulations defined by all possible combinations of the following clinico-pathological variables: T stage, N stage, tumor site, tumor grade and microsatellite instability status. In each such subpopulation, the prognostic value was assessed by log rank test for three endpoints: overall survival, relapse-free survival, and survival after relapse. The significance level was set to 0.01 for Bonferroni-adjusted p-values, and a second threshold for a trend towards statistical significance was set at 0.05 for unadjusted p-values. The significance of the interactions was tested by Wald test, with significance level of 0.05. RESULTS: In stage II-III colorectal cancer, BRAF mutation was confirmed a marker of poor survival only in subpopulations involving microsatellite stable and left-sided tumors, with higher effects than in the whole population. There was no evidence for prognostic value in microsatellite instable or right-sided tumor groups. We found that BRAF was also prognostic for relapse-free survival in some subpopulations. We found no evidence that KRAS mutations had prognostic value, although a trend was observed in some stratifications. We also show evidence of heterogeneity in survival of patients with BRAF V600E mutation. CONCLUSIONS: The BRAF mutation represents an additional risk factor only in some subpopulations of colorectal cancers, in others having limited prognostic value. However, in the subpopulations where it is prognostic, it represents a marker of much higher risk than previously considered. KRAS mutation status does not seem to represent a strong prognostic variable.

Prognostic value of postoperative carcinoembryonic antigen concentration and extent of invasion of resection margins after hepatic resection for colorectal metastases.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the prognostic value of postoperative concentration of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and extent of surgical margins after resection of liver metastases from colorectal cancer. DESIGN: Retrospective study. SETTING: Teaching hospital, Switzerland. SUBJECTS: 49 patients with hepatic metastases after primary colorectal cancer. INTERVENTIONS: Resection of hepatic metastases MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Assessment of prognostic value of variables by univariate and multivariate analysis. RESULTS: Median survival was 24 months (range 5-86 months). Resection margins were clear (> 1-cm) in 10, close (< 1-cm) in 25 and invaded in 9 patients. On univariate analysis, a postoperative concentration of CEA of <4ng/ml was correlated with prolonged survival (p < 0.001), but the width of the resection margin was not of prognostic importance. There was no correlation between width of resection margins and postoperative concentration of CEA (p = 0.5). On multivariate analysis, postoperative concentrations of CEA of 4 ng/ml or more were associated with increased risk of death (relative risk 7.3; 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.8-18.7, p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Postoperative CEA offers better prognostic discrimination than the width of resection margins after resection of liver metastases from colorectal tumours. Some patients with invaded resection margins did survive for 3 years, but no patient did whose CEA concentration was 4 ng/ml or more. The definition of a potentially curative hepatic resection should include a postoperative CEA concentration of <4 ng/ml (within the reference range).

Can the trabecular bone score be considered as a major clinical risk factor of osteoporotic fractures? A meta-like analysis.

To have an added value over BMD, a CRF of osteoporotic fracture must be predictable of the fracture, independent of BMD, reversible and quantifiable. Many major recognized CRF exist. Out of these factors many of them are indirect factor of bone quality. TBS predicts fracture independently of BMD as demonstrated from previous studies. The aim of the study is to verify if TBS can be considered as a major CRF of osteoporotic fracture. Existing validated datasets of Caucasian women were analyzed. These datasets stem from different studies performed by the authors of this report or provided to our group. However, the level of evidence of these studies will vary. Thus, the different datasets were weighted differently according to their design. This meta-like analysis involves more than 32000 women (≥50years) with 2000 osteoporotic fractures from two prospective studies (OFELY&MANITOBA) and 7 cross-sectional studies. Weighted relative risk (RR) for TBS was expressed for each decrease of one standard deviation as well as per tertile difference (TBS=1.300 and 1.200) and compared with those obtained for the major CRF included in FRAX®. Overall TBS RR obtained (adjusted for age) was 1.79 [95%CI-1.37-2.37]. For all women combined, RR for fracture for the lowest compared with the middle TBS tertile was 1.55[1.46-1.68] and for the lowest compared with the highest TBS tertile was 2.8[2.70-3.00]. TBS is comparable to most of the major CRF and thus could be used as one of them. Further studies have to be conducted to confirm these first findings.

Loss risk through fraud in car insurance

Our objective is to analyse fraud as an operational risk for the insurance company. We study the effect of a fraud detection policy on the insurer's results account, quantifying the loss risk from the perspective of claims auditing. From the point of view of operational risk, the study aims to analyse the effect of failing to detect fraudulent claims after investigation. We have chosen VAR as the risk measure with a non-parametric estimation of the loss risk involved in the detection or non-detection of fraudulent claims. The most relevant conclusion is that auditing claims reduces loss risk in the insurance company.

Value of allogeneic versus autologous stem cell transplantation and chemotherapy in patients with myelodysplastic syndromes and secondary acute myeloid leukemia. Final results of a prospective randomized European Intergroup Trial.

BACKGROUND: Allogeneic stem cell transplantation is usually considered the only curative treatment option for patients with advanced or transformed myelodysplastic syndromes in complete remission, but post-remission chemotherapy and autologous stem cell transplantation are potential alternatives, especially in patients over 45 years old. DESIGN AND METHODS: We evaluated, after intensive anti-leukemic remission-induction chemotherapy, the impact of the availability of an HLA-identical sibling donor on an intention-to treat basis. Additionally, all patients without a sibling donor in complete remission after the first consolidation course were randomized to either autologous peripheral blood stem cell transplantation or a second consolidation course consisting of high-dose cytarabine. RESULTS: The 4-year survival of the 341 evaluable patients was 28%. After achieving complete remission, the 4-year survival rates of patients under 55 years old with or without a donor were 54% and 41%, respectively, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 0.81 (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.49-1.35) for survival and of 0.67 (95% CI, 0.42-1.06) for disease-free survival. In patients with intermediate/high risk cytogenetic abnormalities the hazard ratio in multivariate analysis was 0.58 (99% CI, 0.22-1.50) (P=0.14) for survival and 0.46 (99% CI, 0.22-1.50) for disease-free survival (P=0.03). In contrast, in patients with low risk cytogenetic characteristics the hazard ratio for survival was 1.17 (99% CI, 0.40-3.42) and that for disease-free survival was 1.02 (99% CI, 0.40-2.56). The 4-year survival of the 65 patients randomized to autologous peripheral blood stem cell transplantation or a second consolidation course of high-dose cytarabine was 37% and 27%, respectively. The hazard ratio in multivariate analysis was 1.22 (95% CI, 0.65-2.27) for survival and 1.02 (95% CI, 0.56-1.85) for disease-free survival. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with a donor and candidates for allogeneic stem cell transplantation in first complete remission may have a better disease-free survival than those without a donor in case of myelodysplastic syndromes with intermediate/high-risk cytogenetics. Autologous peripheral blood stem cell transplantation does not provide longer survival than intensive chemotherapy.

Bone mineral density (BMD), micro-architecture estimation (TBS) and vertebral fracture assessment (VFA) extracted from a single DXA device in combination with clinical risk factors improve significantly the identification of women at high risk of fracture

Introduction: Osteoporosis (OP) is a systemic skeletal disease characterized by a low bone mineral density (BMD) and a micro-architectural (MA) deterioration. Clinical risk factors (CRF) are often used as a MA approximation. MA is yet evaluable in daily practice by the Trabecular Bone Score (TBS) measure. TBS is a novel grey-level texture measurement reflecting bone micro-architecture based on the use of experimental variograms of 2D projection images. TBS is very simple to obtain, by reanalyzing a lumbar DXA-scan. TBS has proven to have diagnosis and prognosis value, partially independent of CRF and BMD. The aim of the OsteoLaus cohort is to combine in daily practice the CRF and the information given by DXA (BMD, TBS and vertebral fracture assessment (VFA)) to better identify women at high fracture risk. Method: The OsteoLaus cohort (1400 women 50 to 80 years living in Lausanne, Switzerland) started in 2010. This study is derived from the cohort COLAUS who started in Lausanne in 2003. The main goals of COLAUS is to obtain information on the epidemiology and genetic determinants of cardiovascular risk in 6700 men and women. CRF for OP, bone ultrasound of the heel, lumbar spine and hip BMD, VFA by DXA and MA evaluation by TBS are recorded in OsteoLaus. Preliminary results are reported. Results: We included 631 women: mean age 67.4±6.7 y, BMI 26.1±4.6, mean lumbar spine BMD 0.943±0.168 (T-score -1.4 SD), TBS 1.271±0.103. As expected, correlation between BMD and site matched TBS is low (r2=0.16). Prevalence of VFx grade 2/3, major OP Fx and all OP Fx is 8.4%, 17.0% and 26.0% respectively. Age- and BMI-adjusted ORs (per SD decrease) are 1.8 (1.2- 2.5), 1.6 (1.2-2.1), 1.3 (1.1-1.6) for BMD for the different categories of fractures and 2.0 (1.4-3.0), 1.9 (1.4-2.5), 1.4 (1.1-1.7) for TBS respectively. Only 32 to 37% of women with OP Fx have a BMD < -2.5 SD or a TBS < 1.200. If we combine a BMD < -2.5 SD or a TBS < 1.200, 54 to 60% of women with an osteoporotic Fx are identified. Conclusion: As in the already published studies, these preliminary results confirm the partial independence between BMD and TBS. More importantly, a combination of TBS subsequent to BMD increases significantly the identification of women with prevalent OP Fx which would have been miss-classified by BMD alone. For the first time we are able to have complementary information about fracture (VFA), density (BMD), micro- and macro architecture (TBS & HAS) from a simple, low ionizing radiation and cheap device: DXA. Such complementary information is very useful for the patient in the daily practice and moreover will likely have an impact on cost effectiveness analysis.

Prospective evaluation of risk of vertebral fractures using quantitative ultrasound measurements and bone mineral density in a population-based sample of postmenopausal women: results of the Basel Osteoporosis Study.

OBJECTIVE: Prospective studies have shown that quantitative ultrasound (QUS) techniques predict the risk of fracture of the proximal femur with similar standardised risk ratios to dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA). Few studies have investigated these devices for the prediction of vertebral fractures. The Basel Osteoporosis Study (BOS) is a population-based prospective study to assess the performance of QUS devices and DXA in predicting incident vertebral fractures. METHODS: 432 women aged 60-80 years were followed-up for 3 years. Incident vertebral fractures were assessed radiologically. Bone measurements using DXA (spine and hip) and QUS measurements (calcaneus and proximal phalanges) were performed. Measurements were assessed for their value in predicting incident vertebral fractures using logistic regression. RESULTS: QUS measurements at the calcaneus and DXA measurements discriminated between women with and without incident vertebral fracture, (20% height reduction). The relative risks (RRs) for vertebral fracture, adjusted for age, were 2.3 for the Stiffness Index (SI) and 2.8 for the Quantitative Ultrasound Index (QUI) at the calcaneus and 2.0 for bone mineral density at the lumbar spine. The predictive value (AUC (95% CI)) of QUS measurements at the calcaneus remained highly significant (0.70 for SI, 0.72 for the QUI, and 0.67 for DXA at the lumbar spine) even after adjustment for other confounding variables. CONCLUSIONS: QUS of the calcaneus and bone mineral density measurements were shown to be significant predictors of incident vertebral fracture. The RRs for QUS measurements at the calcaneus are of similar magnitude as for DXA measurements.

Essays in higher moment asset pricing and liquidity risk

This thesis focuses on theoretical asset pricing models and their empirical applications. I aim to investigate the following noteworthy problems: i) if the relationship between asset prices and investors' propensities to gamble and to fear disaster is time varying, ii) if the conflicting evidence for the firm and market level skewness can be explained by downside risk, Hi) if costly learning drives liquidity risk. Moreover, empirical tests support the above assumptions and provide novel findings in asset pricing, investment decisions, and firms' funding liquidity. The first chapter considers a partial equilibrium model where investors have heterogeneous propensities to gamble and fear disaster. Skewness preference represents the desire to gamble, while kurtosis aversion represents fear of extreme returns. Using US data from 1988 to 2012, my model demonstrates that in bad times, risk aversion is higher, more people fear disaster, and fewer people gamble, in contrast to good times. This leads to a new empirical finding: gambling preference has a greater impact on asset prices during market downturns than during booms. The second chapter consists of two essays. The first essay introduces a foramula based on conditional CAPM for decomposing the market skewness. We find that the major market upward and downward movements can be well preadicted by the asymmetric comovement of betas, which is characterized by an indicator called "Systematic Downside Risk" (SDR). We find that SDR can efafectively forecast future stock market movements and we obtain out-of-sample R-squares (compared with a strategy using historical mean) of more than 2.27% with monthly data. The second essay reconciles a well-known empirical fact: aggregating positively skewed firm returns leads to negatively skewed market return. We reconcile this fact through firms' greater response to negative maraket news than positive market news. We also propose several market return predictors, such as downside idiosyncratic skewness. The third chapter studies the funding liquidity risk based on a general equialibrium model which features two agents: one entrepreneur and one external investor. Only the investor needs to acquire information to estimate the unobservable fundamentals driving the economic outputs. The novelty is that information acquisition is more costly in bad times than in good times, i.e. counter-cyclical information cost, as supported by previous empirical evidence. Later we show that liquidity risks are principally driven by costly learning. Résumé Cette thèse présente des modèles théoriques dévaluation des actifs et leurs applications empiriques. Mon objectif est d'étudier les problèmes suivants: la relation entre l'évaluation des actifs et les tendances des investisseurs à parier et à crainadre le désastre varie selon le temps ; les indications contraires pour l'entreprise et l'asymétrie des niveaux de marché peuvent être expliquées par les risques de perte en cas de baisse; l'apprentissage coûteux augmente le risque de liquidité. En outre, des tests empiriques confirment les suppositions ci-dessus et fournissent de nouvelles découvertes en ce qui concerne l'évaluation des actifs, les décisions relatives aux investissements et la liquidité de financement des entreprises. Le premier chapitre examine un modèle d'équilibre où les investisseurs ont des tendances hétérogènes à parier et à craindre le désastre. La préférence asymétrique représente le désir de parier, alors que le kurtosis d'aversion représente la crainte du désastre. En utilisant les données des Etats-Unis de 1988 à 2012, mon modèle démontre que dans les mauvaises périodes, l'aversion du risque est plus grande, plus de gens craignent le désastre et moins de gens parient, conatrairement aux bonnes périodes. Ceci mène à une nouvelle découverte empirique: la préférence relative au pari a un plus grand impact sur les évaluations des actifs durant les ralentissements de marché que durant les booms économiques. Exploitant uniquement cette relation générera un revenu excédentaire annuel de 7,74% qui n'est pas expliqué par les modèles factoriels populaires. Le second chapitre comprend deux essais. Le premier essai introduit une foramule base sur le CAPM conditionnel pour décomposer l'asymétrie du marché. Nous avons découvert que les mouvements de hausses et de baisses majeures du marché peuvent être prédits par les mouvements communs des bêtas. Un inadicateur appelé Systematic Downside Risk, SDR (risque de ralentissement systématique) est créé pour caractériser cette asymétrie dans les mouvements communs des bêtas. Nous avons découvert que le risque de ralentissement systématique peut prévoir les prochains mouvements des marchés boursiers de manière efficace, et nous obtenons des carrés R hors échantillon (comparés avec une stratégie utilisant des moyens historiques) de plus de 2,272% avec des données mensuelles. Un investisseur qui évalue le marché en utilisant le risque de ralentissement systématique aurait obtenu une forte hausse du ratio de 0,206. Le second essai fait cadrer un fait empirique bien connu dans l'asymétrie des niveaux de march et d'entreprise, le total des revenus des entreprises positiveament asymétriques conduit à un revenu de marché négativement asymétrique. Nous décomposons l'asymétrie des revenus du marché au niveau de l'entreprise et faisons cadrer ce fait par une plus grande réaction des entreprises aux nouvelles négatives du marché qu'aux nouvelles positives du marché. Cette décomposition révélé plusieurs variables de revenus de marché efficaces tels que l'asymétrie caractéristique pondérée par la volatilité ainsi que l'asymétrie caractéristique de ralentissement. Le troisième chapitre fournit une nouvelle base théorique pour les problèmes de liquidité qui varient selon le temps au sein d'un environnement de marché incomplet. Nous proposons un modèle d'équilibre général avec deux agents: un entrepreneur et un investisseur externe. Seul l'investisseur a besoin de connaitre le véritable état de l'entreprise, par conséquent, les informations de paiement coutent de l'argent. La nouveauté est que l'acquisition de l'information coute plus cher durant les mauvaises périodes que durant les bonnes périodes, comme cela a été confirmé par de précédentes expériences. Lorsque la récession comamence, l'apprentissage coûteux fait augmenter les primes de liquidité causant un problème d'évaporation de liquidité, comme cela a été aussi confirmé par de précédentes expériences.

Leukemic cluster growth in culture is an independent risk factor for acute myeloid leukemia and short survival in patients with myelodysplastic syndrome

In patients with myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) precursor cell cultures (colony-forming unit cells, CFU-C) can provide an insight into the growth potential of malignant myeloid cells. In a retrospective single-center study of 73 untreated MDS patients we assessed whether CFU-C growth patterns were of prognostic value in addition to established criteria. Abnormalities were classified as qualitative (i.e. leukemic cluster growth) or quantitative (i.e. strongly reduced/absent growth). Thirty-nine patients (53%) showed leukemic growth, 26 patients (36%) had strongly reduced/absent colony growth, and 12 patients showed both. In a univariate analysis the presence of leukemic growth was associated with strongly reduced survival (at 10 years 4 vs. 34%, p = 0.004), and a high incidence of transformation to AML (76 vs. 32%, p = 0.01). Multivariate analysis identified leukemic growth as a strong and independent predictor of early death (relative risk 2.12, p = 0.03) and transformation to AML (relative risk 2.63, p = 0.04). Quantitative abnormalities had no significant impact on the disease course. CFU- C assays have significant predictive value in addition to established prognostic factors in MDS. Leukemic growth identifies a subpopulation of MDS patients with poor prognosis.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of risk factors for survival after lung metastasectomy in colorectal cancer patients

Objective: Resection of lung metastases (LM) from colorectal cancer (CRC)¦is increasingly performed with a curative intent.Most series report small groups¦of patients, and it is currently not possible to identify those CRC patients who¦may benefit the most of surgical management. It is clinically relevant to assess¦risk factors for prolonged survival after this type of procedures.¦Methods: A meta analysis of 24 series published between 2000 and 2011¦which focused on surgical management of LM from CRC and included more¦than 40 patients each, with or without prior resection of in transit liver¦metastases. Random effects were calculated for five variables considered as¦potential prognostic factors.¦Results: A total of 2815 patients who underwent surgery with a curative¦intent were considered in this analysis. Four parameters were associated with¦a decreased survival: 1) a short disease-free interval between primary tumor¦resection and development of LM (HR = 1·59, 95% CI 1·27-1·98); 2) multiple¦LM (HR = 2·04, 95%CI 1·72-2·41); 3) positive hilar/mediastinal lymph nodes¦(HR = 1·65, 95% CI 1·35-2·02); and 4) a high prethoracotomy CEA value (HR¦=1·91, 95% CI 1·57-2·32). By comparison, a history of resected liver metastases¦(HR = 1·36, 95% CI 0·92-2·03) did not achieve statistical significance.¦Conclusion: Risk factors for poor clinical outcome after surgery for lung¦metastases in CRC patients include: 1) synchronous lung metastases; 2) high¦pre-thoracotomy CEA; 3) hilar nodes involvement; and 4) multiple pulmonary¦lesions.

Extent of hypoattenuation on CT angiography source images in basilar artery occlusion: prognostic value in the Basilar Artery International Cooperation Study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The posterior circulation Acute Stroke Prognosis Early CT Score (pc-ASPECTS) quantifies the extent of early ischemic changes in the posterior circulation with a 10-point grading system. We hypothesized that pc-ASPECTS applied to CT angiography source images predicts functional outcome of patients in the Basilar Artery International Cooperation Study (BASICS). METHODS: BASICS was a prospective, observational registry of consecutive patients with acute symptomatic basilar artery occlusion. Functional outcome was assessed at 1 month. We applied pc-ASPECTS to CT angiography source images of patients with CT angiography for confirmation of basilar artery occlusion. We calculated unadjusted and adjusted risk ratios (RRs) of pc-ASPECTS dichotomized at ≥8 versus <8. Primary outcome measure was favorable outcome (modified Rankin Scale scores 0-3). Secondary outcome measures were mortality and functional independence (modified Rankin Scale scores 0-2). RESULTS: Of 158 patients included, 78 patients had a CT angiography source images pc-ASPECTS≥8. Patients with a pc-ASPECTS≥8 more often had a favorable outcome than patients with a pc-ASPECTS<8 (crude RR, 1.7; 95% CI, 0.98-3.0). After adjustment for age, baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score, and thrombolysis, pc-ASPECTS≥8 was not related to favorable outcome (RR, 1.3; 95% CI, 0.8-2.2), but it was related to reduced mortality (RR, 0.7; 95% CI, 0.5-0.98) and functional independence (RR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.1-3.8). In post hoc analysis, pc-ASPECTS dichotomized at ≥6 versus <6 predicted a favorable outcome (adjusted RR, 3.1; 95% CI, 1.2-7.5). CONCLUSIONS: pc-ASPECTS on CT angiography source images independently predicted death and functional independence at 1 month in the CT angiography subgroup of patients in the BASICS registry.

Beyond sepsis pathophysiology with cytokines: what is their value as biomarkers for disease severity?

Sepsis is a major challenge in medicine. It is a common and frequently fatal infectious condition. The incidence continues to increase, with unacceptably high mortality rates, despite the use of specific antibiotics, aggressive operative intervention, nutritional support, and anti-inflammatory therapies. Typically, septic patients exhibit a high degree of heterogeneity due to variables such as age, weight, gender, the presence of secondary disease, the state of the immune system, and the severity of the infection. We are at urgent need for biomarkers and reliable measurements that can be applied to risk stratification of septic patients and that would easily identify those patients at the highest risk of a poor outcome. Such markers would be of fundamental importance to decision making for early intervention therapy or for the design of septic clinical trials. In the present work, we will review current biomarkers for sepsis severity and especially the use of cytokines as biomarkers with important pathophysiological role.