A Comparison of Machine Learning Techniques for Modeling River Flow Time Series: The Case of Upper Cauvery River Basin

Models of river flow time series are essential in efficient management of a river basin. It helps policy makers in developing efficient water utilization strategies to maximize the utility of scarce water resource. Time series analysis has been used extensively for modeling river flow data. The use of machine learning techniques such as support-vector regression and neural network models is gaining increasing popularity. In this paper we compare the performance of these techniques by applying it to a long-term time-series data of the inflows into the Krishnaraja Sagar reservoir (KRS) from three tributaries of the river Cauvery. In this study flow data over a period of 30 years from three different observation points established in upper Cauvery river sub-basin is analyzed to estimate their contribution to KRS. Specifically, ANN model uses a multi-layer feed forward network trained with a back-propagation algorithm and support vector regression with epsilon intensive-loss function is used. Auto-regressive moving average models are also applied to the same data. The performance of different techniques is compared using performance metrics such as root mean squared error (RMSE), correlation, normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE) and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE).

Tectono-geomorphic and environmental set-up deduced during deposition of Mio-Pleistocene sediments in NW Himalaya, India

Detailed pedofacies characterization along-with lithofacies investigations of the Mio-Pleistocene Siwalik sediments exposed in the Ramnagar sub-basin have been studied so as to elucidate variability in time and space of fluvial processes and the role of intra- and extra-basinal controls on fluvial sedimentation during the evolution of the Himalayan foreland basin (HFB). Dominance of multiple, moderately to strongly developed palaeosol assemblages during deposition of Lower Siwalik (similar to 12-10.8 Ma) sediments suggest that the HFB was marked by Upland set-up of Thomas et al. (2002). Activity of intra-basinal faults on the uplands and deposition of terminal fans at different times caused the development of multiple soils. Further, detailed pedofacies along-with lithofacies studies indicate prevalence of stable tectonic conditions and development of meandering streams with broad floodplains. However, the Middle Siwalik (similar to 10.8-4.92 Ma) sub-group is marked by multistoried sandstones and minor mudstone and mainly weakly developed palaeosols, indicating deposition by large braided rivers in the form of megafans in a Lowland set-up of Thomas et al. (2002). Significant change in nature and size of rivers from the Lower to Middle Siwalik at similar to 10 Ma is found almost throughout of the basin from Kohat Plateau (Pakistan) to Nepal because the Himalayan orogeny witnessed its greatest tectonic upheaval at this time leading to attainment of great heights by the Himalaya, intensification of the monsoon, development of large rivers systems and a high rate of sedimentation, hereby a major change from the Upland set-up to the Lowland set-up over major parts of the HFB. An interesting geomorphic environmental set-up prevailed in the Ramnagar sub-basin during deposition of the studied Upper Siwalik (similar to 4.92 to <1.68 Ma) sediments as observed from the degree of pedogenesis and the type of palaeosols. In general, the Upper Siwalik sub-group in the Ramnagar sub-basin is subdivided from bottom to top into the Purmandal sandstone (4.92-4.49 Ma), Nagrota (4.49-1.68 Ma) and Boulder Conglomerate (<1.68 Ma) formations on the basis of sedimentological characters and change in dominant lithology. Presence of mudstone, a few thin gravel beds and dominant sandstone lithology with weakly to moderately developed palaeosols in the Purmandal sandstone Fm. indicates deposition by shallow braided fluvial streams. The deposition of mudstone dominant Nagrota Fm. with moderately to some well developed palaeosols and a zone of gleyed palaeosols with laminated mudstones and thin sandstones took place in an environment marked by numerous small lakes, water-logged regions and small streams in an environment just south of the Piedmont zone, perhaps similar to what is happening presently in the Upland region/the Upper Gangetic plain. This area is locally called the `Trai region' (Pascoe, 1964). Deposition of Boulder Conglomerate Fm. took place by gravelly braided river system close to the Himalayan Ranges. Activity along the Main Boundary Fault led to progradation of these environments distal-ward and led to development of on the whole a coarsening upward sequence. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Interpreting the upper level structure of the Madden-Julian oscillation

The nonlinear response of a spherical shallow water model to an imposed heat source in the presence of realistic zonal mean zonal winds is investigated numerically. The solutions exhibit elongated, meridionally tilted ridges and troughs indicative of a poleward dispersion of wave activity. As the speed of the jets is increased, the equatorial Kelvin wave is unaffected but the global Rossby wave train coalesces to form a compact, amplified quadrupole structure that bears a striking resemblance to the observed upper level structure of the Madden-Julian oscillation. In the presence of strong subtropical westerly jets, the advection of planetary vorticity by the meridional flow and relative vorticity by the zonally averaged background flow conspire to create the distinctive quadrupole configuration of flanking Rossby waves.

Impact of river runoff into the ocean on Indian summer monsoon

Rivers of the world discharge about 36000 km 3 of freshwater into the ocean every year. To investigate the impact of river discharge on climate, we have carried out two 100 year simulations using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3), one including the river runoff into the ocean and the other excluding it. When the river discharge is shut off, global average sea surface temperature (SST) rises by about 0.5 degrees C and the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) increases by about 10% of the seasonal total with large increase in the eastern Bay of Bengal and along the west coast of India. In addition, the frequency of occurrence of La Nina-like cooling events in the equatorial Pacific increases and the correlation between ISMR and Pacific SST anomalies become stronger. The teleconnection between the SST anomalies in the Pacific and monsoon is effected via upper tropospheric meridional temperature gradient and the North African-Asian Jet axis.

Multiobjective fuzzy optimization for sustainable groundwater management using particle swarm optimization and analytic element method

Groundwater management involves conflicting objectives as maximization of discharge contradicts the criteria of minimum pumping cost and minimum piping cost. In addition, available data contains uncertainties such as market fluctuations, variations in water levels of wells and variations of ground water policies. A fuzzy model is to be evolved to tackle the uncertainties, and a multiobjective optimization is to be conducted to simultaneously satisfy the contradicting objectives. Towards this end, a multiobjective fuzzy optimization model is evolved. To get at the upper and lower bounds of the individual objectives, particle Swarm optimization (PSO) is adopted. The analytic element method (AEM) is employed to obtain the operating potentio metric head. In this study, a multiobjective fuzzy optimization model considering three conflicting objectives is developed using PSO and AEM methods for obtaining a sustainable groundwater management policy. The developed model is applied to a case study, and it is demonstrated that the compromise solution satisfies all the objectives with adequate levels of satisfaction. Sensitivity analysis is carried out by varying the parameters, and it is shown that the effect of any such variation is quite significant. Copyright (c) 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Bearing capacity factors for a conical footing using lower- and upper-bound finite elements limit analysis

Bearing capacity factors, N-c, N-q, and N-gamma, for a conical footing are determined by using the lower and upper bound axisymmetric formulation of the limit analysis in combination with finite elements and optimization. These factors are obtained in a bound form for a wide range of the values of cone apex angle (beta) and phi with delta = 0, 0.5 phi, and phi. The bearing capacity factors for a perfectly rough (delta = phi) conical footing generally increase with a decrease in beta. On the contrary, for delta = 0 degrees, the factors N-c and N-q reduce gradually with a decrease in beta. For delta = 0 degrees, the factor N-gamma for phi >= 35 degrees becomes a minimum for beta approximate to 90 degrees. For delta = 0 degrees, N-gamma for phi <= 30 degrees, as in the case of delta = phi, generally reduces with an increase in beta. The failure and nodal velocity patterns are also examined. The results compare well with different numerical solutions and centrifuge tests' data available from the literature.

Wave propagation in a 2D nonlinear structural acoustic waveguide using asymptotic expansions of wavenumbers

Nonlinear acoustic wave propagation in an infinite rectangular waveguide is investigated. The upper boundary of this waveguide is a nonlinear elastic plate, whereas the lower boundary is rigid. The fluid is assumed to be inviscid with zero mean flow. The focus is restricted to non-planar modes having finite amplitudes. The approximate solution to the acoustic velocity potential of an amplitude modulated pulse is found using the method of multiple scales (MMS) involving both space and time. The calculations are presented up to the third order of the small parameter. It is found that at some frequencies the amplitude modulation is governed by the Nonlinear Schrodinger equation (NLSE). The first objective here is to study the nonlinear term in the NLSE. The sign of the nonlinear term in the NLSE plays a role in determining the stability of the amplitude modulation. Secondly, at other frequencies, the primary pulse interacts with its higher harmonics, as do two or more primary pulses with their resultant higher harmonics. This happens when the phase speeds of the waves match and the objective is to identify the frequencies of such interactions. For both the objectives, asymptotic coupled wavenumber expansions for the linear dispersion relation are required for an intermediate fluid loading. The novelty of this work lies in obtaining the asymptotic expansions and using them for predicting the sign change of the nonlinear term at various frequencies. It is found that when the coupled wavenumbers approach the uncoupled pressure-release wavenumbers, the amplitude modulation is stable. On the other hand, near the rigid-duct wavenumbers, the amplitude modulation is unstable. Also, as a further contribution, these wavenumber expansions are used to identify the frequencies of the higher harmonic interactions. And lastly, the solution for the amplitude modulation derived through the MMS is validated using these asymptotic expansions. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Upper bound on cubicity in terms of boxicity for graphs of low chromatic number

The boxicity (respectively cubicity) of a graph G is the least integer k such that G can be represented as an intersection graph of axis-parallel k-dimensional boxes (respectively k-dimensional unit cubes) and is denoted by box(G) (respectively cub(G)). It was shown by Adiga and Chandran (2010) that for any graph G, cub(G) <= box(G) log(2) alpha(G], where alpha(G) is the maximum size of an independent set in G. In this note we show that cub(G) <= 2 log(2) X (G)] box(G) + X (G) log(2) alpha(G)], where x (G) is the chromatic number of G. This result can provide a much better upper bound than that of Adiga and Chandran for graph classes with bounded chromatic number. For example, for bipartite graphs we obtain cub(G) <= 2(box(G) + log(2) alpha(G)] Moreover, we show that for every positive integer k, there exist graphs with chromatic number k such that for every epsilon > 0, the value given by our upper bound is at most (1 + epsilon) times their cubicity. Thus, our upper bound is almost tight. (c) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Tight triangulations of closed 3-manifolds

A triangulation of a closed 2-manifold is tight with respect to a field of characteristic two if and only if it is neighbourly; and it is tight with respect to a field of odd characteristic if and only if it is neighbourly and orientable. No such characterization of tightness was previously known for higher dimensional manifolds. In this paper, we prove that a triangulation of a closed 3-manifold is tight with respect to a field of odd characteristic if and only if it is neighbourly, orientable and stacked. In consequence, the Kuhnel-Lutz conjecture is valid in dimension three for fields of odd characteristic. Next let F be a field of characteristic two. It is known that, in this case, any neighbourly and stacked triangulation of a closed 3-manifold is F-tight. For closed, triangulated 3-manifolds with at most 71 vertices or with first Betti number at most 188, we show that the converse is true. But the possibility of the existence of an F-tight, non-stacked triangulation on a larger number of vertices remains open. We prove the following upper bound theorem on such triangulations. If an F-tight triangulation of a closed 3-manifold has n vertices and first Betti number beta(1), then (n - 4) (617n - 3861) <= 15444 beta(1). Equality holds here if and only if all the vertex links of the triangulation are connected sums of boundary complexes of icosahedra. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Polymers with aligned carbon nanotubes: Active composite materials

We review the current state of the polymer-carbon nanotube composites field. The article first covers key points in dispersion and stabilization of nanotubes in a polymer matrix, with particular attention paid to ultrasonic cavitation and shear mixing. We then focus on the emerging trends in nanocomposite actuators, in particular, photo-stimulated mechanical response. The magnitude and even the direction of this actuation critically depend on the degree of tube alignment in the matrix; in this context, we discuss the affine model predicting the upper bound of orientational order of nanotubes, induced by an imposed strain. We review how photo-actuation in nanocomposites depend on nanotube concentration, alignment and entanglement, and examine possible mechanisms that could lead to this effect. Finally, we discuss properties of pure carbon nanotube networks, in form of mats or fibers. These systems have no polymer matrix, yet demonstrate pronounced viscoelasticity and also the same photomechanical actuation as seen in polymer-based composites. © 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Numerical investigation on a simulation model of floating zone convection

A simulation model with adiabatic condition at the upper rod and constant temperature at the lower rod is studied numerically in this paper. The temperature distribution in a simulation model is closer to the one in the half part of a floating full zone in comparison with the one in a usual floating half zone model with constant temperature at both rods, because the temperature distribution of a floating full zone is symmetric for the middle plane in a microgravity environment. The results of the simulation model show that the temperature profiles and the how patterns are different from those of the usual floating half zone model. Another type of half zone model, with a special non-uniform temperature distribution at the upper rod and constant temperature at the lower rod, has been suggested by recent experiments. The temperature boundary condition of the upper rod has a maximum value in the center and a lower value near the free surface. This modified simulation model is also simulated numerically in the present paper. Copyright (C)1996 Elsevier Science Ltd.

Hydrologic aspects of freshening upper Old Tampa Bay, Florida

Upper Old Tampa Bay, a 17-square mile area of Old Tampa Bay, Florida, has been proposed for conversion to a fresh-water lake. The amount of runoff to the proposed lake and its chemical quality are both adequate to freshen and sustain a fresh-water lake in this part of the bay. During 1950-66 runoff to the proposed lake, including discharge from Lake Tarpon, would have averaged 134 mgd (million gallons per day) and would have displaced the volume of the proposed lake at normal pool stage (2.5 feet above mean sea level) about 1.7 times per year. Without discharge from Lake Tarpon, the volume of the proposed lake would have been displaced 1.2 times. If the lake level was initially at a normal pool stage during a critically dry year, such as 1956, the proposed lake would have declined 0.25 to 0.5 foot below the minimum design level, (1.5 feet above mean sea level). (44 page document)