Appropriate complexity for the prediction of coastal and estuarine geomorphic behaviour at decadal to centennial scales

Coastal and estuarine landforms provide a physical template that not only accommodates diverse ecosystem functions and human activities, but also mediates flood and erosion risks that are expected to increase with climate change. In this paper, we explore some of the issues associated with the conceptualisation and modelling of coastal morphological change at time and space scales relevant to managers and policy makers. Firstly, we revisit the question of how to define the most appropriate scales at which to seek quantitative predictions of landform change within an age defined by human interference with natural sediment systems and by the prospect of significant changes in climate and ocean forcing. Secondly, we consider the theoretical bases and conceptual frameworks for determining which processes are most important at a given scale of interest and the related problem of how to translate this understanding into models that are computationally feasible, retain a sound physical basis and demonstrate useful predictive skill. In particular, we explore the limitations of a primary scale approach and the extent to which these can be resolved with reference to the concept of the coastal tract and application of systems theory. Thirdly, we consider the importance of different styles of landform change and the need to resolve not only incremental evolution of morphology but also changes in the qualitative dynamics of a system and/or its gross morphological configuration. The extreme complexity and spatially distributed nature of landform systems means that quantitative prediction of future changes must necessarily be approached through mechanistic modelling of some form or another. Geomorphology has increasingly embraced so-called ‘reduced complexity’ models as a means of moving from an essentially reductionist focus on the mechanics of sediment transport towards a more synthesist view of landform evolution. However, there is little consensus on exactly what constitutes a reduced complexity model and the term itself is both misleading and, arguably, unhelpful. Accordingly, we synthesise a set of requirements for what might be termed ‘appropriate complexity modelling’ of quantitative coastal morphological change at scales commensurate with contemporary management and policy-making requirements: 1) The system being studied must be bounded with reference to the time and space scales at which behaviours of interest emerge and/or scientific or management problems arise; 2) model complexity and comprehensiveness must be appropriate to the problem at hand; 3) modellers should seek a priori insights into what kind of behaviours are likely to be evident at the scale of interest and the extent to which the behavioural validity of a model may be constrained by its underlying assumptions and its comprehensiveness; 4) informed by qualitative insights into likely dynamic behaviour, models should then be formulated with a view to resolving critical state changes; and 5) meso-scale modelling of coastal morphological change should reflect critically on the role of modelling and its relation to the observable world.

Quiet-Sun Hα Transients and Corresponding Small-scale Transition Region and Coronal Heating

Rapid blue- and redshifted excursions (RBEs and RREs) are likely to be the on-disk counterparts of Type II spicules. Recently, heating signatures from RBEs/RREs have been detected in IRIS slit-jaw images dominated by transition region (TR) lines around network patches. Additionally, signatures of Type II spicules have been observed in Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) diagnostics. The full-disk, ever-present nature of the AIA diagnostics should provide us with sufficient statistics to directly determine how important RBEs and RREs are to the heating of the TR and corona. We find, with high statistical significance, that at least 11% of the low coronal brightenings detected in a quiet-Sun region in He ii 304 Å can be attributed to either RBEs or RREs as observed in Hα, and a 6% match of Fe IX 171 Å detected events to RBEs or RREs with very similar statistics for both types of Hα features. We took a statistical approach that allows for noisy detections in the coronal channels and provides us with a lower, but statistical significant, bound. Further, we consider matches based on overlapping features in both time and space, and find strong visual indications of further correspondence between coronal events and co-evolving but non-overlapping, RBEs and RREs.

Containing precious metals: hallmarking, minting and the materiality of gold and silver in medieval and modern England.

This book chapter extends the argument constructed by Oakley in his conference paper ‘Containing gold: Institutional attempts to define and constrict the values of precious metal objects’ presented at ‘Itineraries of the Material’, a conference held at Goethe Universitaet, Frankfurt am Main in 2011. Oakley’s chapter investigates the social forces that define the identities, social pathways and physical movement of objects made of precious metal. It presents a case study in which constitutive substance rather than the conceptual object is the key driver behind the social trajectories of numerous artefacts and their reception by contemporary audiences. This supports the main contention of the book as a whole: the need to reconsider, and when necessary challenge, the dominance of the social biography of objects in the study of material culture. Oakley’s research used historical and ethnographic approaches, including three years’ of ethnographic field research in the jewellery industry. This included training as a precious metal assayer at the Birmingham Assay Office and observing the industry and public response to government proposals to abolish the hallmarking legislation. This fieldwork was augmented by archive, library and object collection research on the histories of assaying and goldsmithing. Oakley presents an analysis of the historical development and contemporary social relevance of hallmarking, a technological process that has never previously been subject to ethnographic study, yet is fundamental to one of the UK’s creative industries.

Defining Spatial and Temporal Hydromorphological Sampling Strategies for the Leigh Brook River Site

Detailed surveys of depth and velocity are undertaken to describe hydro-ecological status of rivers. Fieldwork for these surveys is time consuming and expensive. This paper aims to describe the methodology applied in order to determine the most suitable depth sampling strategy for effective field data collection and river representation in time and space at the Leigh Brook river site, Worcester, UK. The accuracy of three different sampling strategies for predicting depth at non-measured points has been compared and the mesohabitats that better characterise depth changes due to variations in discharge have been identified. The results show that depth changes due to discharge change are mainly located at shallow and deep glide mesohabitat types. The analysis for the comparison of sampling strategies indicates that grid sampling strategies give better results than regular transects. Since the results also show that higher errors in predictions are obtained in the deepest areas, higher sampling densities should be applied in these locations.

Book review: Jiří Přibáň, legal symbolism: on law, time and European identity

This is a book review of Jiří Přibáň, Legal Symbolism: On Law, Time and European Identity, Ashgate, Aldershot, 2007, 226 pp, ISBN: 978-0-7546-7073-5

Forecasting overseas visitors into the United Kingdom using continuous time and autoregressive fractional integrated moving average models with discrete data

This paper applies Gaussian estimation methods to continuous time models for modelling overseas visitors into the UK. The use of continuous time modelling is widely used in economics and finance but not in tourism forecasting. Using monthly data for 1986–2010, various continuous time models are estimated and compared to autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) models. Dynamic forecasts are obtained over different periods. The empirical results show that the ARIMA model performs very well, but that the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) continuous time model has the lowest root mean squared error (RMSE) over a short period.

Sex, Time and Place: Queer Histories of London, c.1850 to the Present

Sex, Time and Place extensively widens the scope of what we might mean by 'queer London studies'. Incorporating multidisciplinary perspectives – including social history, cultural geography, visual culture, literary representation, ethnography and social studies – this collection asks new questions, widens debates and opens new subject terrain. Featuring essays from an international range of established scholars and emergent voices, the collection is a timely contribution to this growing field. Its essays cover topics such as activist and radical communities and groups, AIDS and the city, art and literature, digital archives and technology, drag and performativity, lesbian London, notions of bohemianism and deviancy, sex reform and research and queer Black history. Going further than the existing literature on Queer London which focuses principally on the experiences of white gay men in a limited time frame, Sex, Time and Place reflects the current state of this growing and important field of study. It will be of great value to scholars, students and general readers who have an interest in queer history, London studies, cultural geography, visual cultures and literary criticism.

Beyond time and oblivion : Sir Robert Sidney’s autograph manuscript

Dealing with ancient manuscript or old printed texts often constitutes a difficult task, especially to philologists and editors, for two main reasons: the precarious state of preservation of the documents and the uncertainty regarding their origin, authenticity and authorship. These problems are aggravated by spurious versions, due to the publication of truncated works, poorly supervised miscellanies and non-authorised editions. Sir Robert Sidney’s literary text constitutes an exception amidst such vicissitudes, once the original corpus is wholly contained in a notebook exhibiting the organisation and unity conceived by the author himself. Today, there is no evidence that any loose poems, either autograph or copied by amanuenses, were in circulation among members of the Elizabethan court society. The notebook was kept in private collections for four centuries, which probably explains why it was so well preserved. In fact, only in 1984 would P.J. Croft’s fine edition bring the youngest Sidney’s Poems into light. In this work, I approach Croft’s perceptive, accurate philological study that eventually rescued from oblivion a remarkable piece both of the Elizabethan lyric poetry and of the English Renaissance, and, at the same time, look into Robert Sidney’s peculiar, careful and original formatting of his own autograph manuscript.

Personality, emotion, and mood in agent-based group decision making

Group decision making plays an important role in organizations, especially in the present-day economy that demands high-quality, yet quick decisions. Group decision-support systems (GDSSs) are interactive computer-based environments that support concerted, coordinated team efforts toward the completion of joint tasks. The need for collaborative work in organizations has led to the development of a set of general collaborative computer-supported technologies and specific GDSSs that support distributed groups (in time and space) in various domains. However, each person is unique and has different reactions to various arguments. Many times a disagreement arises because of the way we began arguing, not because of the content itself. Nevertheless, emotion, mood, and personality factors have not yet been addressed in GDSSs, despite how strongly they influence results. Our group’s previous work considered the roles that emotion and mood play in decision making. In this article, we reformulate these factors and include personality as well. Thus, this work incorporates personality, emotion, and mood in the negotiation process of an argumentbased group decision-making process. Our main goal in this work is to improve the negotiation process through argumentation using the affective characteristics of the involved participants. Each participant agent represents a group decision member. This representation lets us simulate people with different personalities. The discussion process between group members (agents) is made through the exchange of persuasive arguments. Although our multiagent architecture model4 includes two types of agents—the facilitator and the participant— this article focuses on the emotional, personality, and argumentation components of the participant agent.

Multiple Linear Regression and Artificial Neural Networks to Predict Time and Efficiency of Soil Vapor Extraction

The prediction of the time and the efficiency of the remediation of contaminated soils using soil vapor extraction remain a difficult challenge to the scientific community and consultants. This work reports the development of multiple linear regression and artificial neural network models to predict the remediation time and efficiency of soil vapor extractions performed in soils contaminated separately with benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, xylene, trichloroethylene, and perchloroethylene. The results demonstrated that the artificial neural network approach presents better performances when compared with multiple linear regression models. The artificial neural network model allowed an accurate prediction of remediation time and efficiency based on only soil and pollutants characteristics, and consequently allowing a simple and quick previous evaluation of the process viability.

Narrative Memory in Hyperfiction and Games

The aim of this paper is to address some theoretical issues concerning the narrative practice in cyberspace. From a narratological perspective it intends to clarify the functioning of time and space in storytelling. For that purpose it traces the concept(s) of memory inherited from rhetoric; the use of memory as a narrative device in traditional accounts; the adaptations imposed by hyperfiction. Using practical examples (including two Portuguese case studies - InStory 2006, and Noon 2007) it will show how narrative memory strategies can be helpful in game literacy. The main purpose is to contribute to serious game research and (trans)literary studies.

Retinal thickening in HLA-B27 associated acute anterior uveitis: evolution with time and association with severity of inflammatory activity.

Purpose: To describe the evolution of retinal thickness in eyes affected with acute anterior uveitis (AAU) in the course of follow-up and to assess its correlation with severity of inflammatory activity in the anterior chamber. Methods: Design: Prospective, cohort study Setting: Institutional study Patient population: 72 eyes (affected and fellow eyes) of 36 patients Observation procedure: Patients were followed daily until beginning of resolution of inflammatory activity and weekly thereafter. Optical coherence tomography and laser flare photometry were performed at each visit. Treatment consisted of topical corticosteroids Main outcome measures: Retinal thickness of affected eyes, difference in retinal thickness between affected and fellow eyes and their evolution in time, association between maximal retinal thickness and initial laser flare photometry. Results: Difference in retinal thickness between affected and fellow eyes became significant on average seven days from baseline and remained so through-out follow-up (p<0.001). There was a steep increase in retinal thickness of affected eyes followed by a progressive decrease after reaching a peak value. Maximal difference in retinal thickness between affected and fellow eyes was observed between 17 and 25 days from baseline and exhibited a strong, positive correlation with initial laser flare photometry values (p=0.015). Conclusions: Retinal thickness in eyes affected with AAU presents a steep increase over 3 to 4 weeks and then gradually decreases. Severity of inflammation at baseline predicts the amount of retinal thickening in affected eyes. A characteristic pattern of temporal response of retinal anatomy to inflammatory stimuli seems to arise.

A Case Study of Doctoral Research Assistantships: Access and Experiences of Full-Time and Part-Time Education Students

Graduate students’ development as researchers is a key objective in higher education. Research assistantships provide distinctive spaces where graduate students can be nurtured and shaped as novice researchers as they develop theoretical and methodological knowledge. However, few scholars have investigated graduate student research assistants’ experiences and the ways these experiences are influenced by institutional regulations, informal practices, and social relations. The purpose of this case-within-a-case study was to explore the research assistantship experiences of full-time and part-time doctoral students in Education at an Ontario university. I present separate subcases for full-time and part-time students, and an overarching case of research assistantships in one program at a specific period of time. The main question was how do institutional regulations, informal practices, and social relations influence full-time and part-time doctoral students’ access to and experiences within research assistantships. My objective was to draw from interviews and documents to acquire a thorough understanding of the organizational characteristics of research assistantships (i.e., structures of access, distribution, and coordination of participation) to explore the ways institutional regulations, informal practices, and social relations promote, prevent, or limit full-time and part-time students’ legitimate peripheral participation in research assistantships. Although I devoted particular attention to the ways students’ full-time and part-time status shaped their decisions, relationships, and experiences, I was conscious that other factors such as gender, age, and cultural background may have also influenced doctoral research assistant experiences.

Altruism, Intergenerational Transfers of Time and Bequests

This paper uses a standard two-period overlapping generation model to examine the behavior of an economy where both intergenerational transfers of time and bequests are available. While bequests have been examined extensively, time transfers have received little or no attention in the literature. Assuming a log-linear utility function and a Cobb-Douglas production function, we derive an explicit solution for the dynamics and show that altruistic intergenerational time transfers can take place in presence of a binding non-negativity constraint on bequests. We also show that with either type of transfers capital is an increasing function of the intergenerational degree of altruism. However, while with time transfers the labor supply of the young increases with the degree of altruism, with bequests it may decrease