Tracheobronchial and alveolar dose of submicrometer particles for different population age groups in Italy

Exposure to ultrafine particles (diameter less than 100 nm) is an important topic in epidemiological and toxicological studies. This study used the average particle number size distribution data obtained from our measurement survey in major micro-environments, together with the people activity pattern data obtained from the Italian Human Activity Pattern Survey to estimate the tracheobronchial and alveolar dose of submicrometer particles for different population age groups in Italy. We developed a numerical methodology based on Monte Carlo method, in order to estimate the best combination from a probabilistic point of view. More than 106 different cases were analyzed according to a purpose built sub-routine and our results showed that the daily alveolar particle number and surface area deposited for all of the age groups considered was equal to 1.5 x 1011 particles and 2.5 x 1015 m2, respectively, varying slightly for males and females living in Northern or Southern Italy. In terms of tracheobronchial deposition, the corresponding values for daily particle number and surface area for all age groups was equal to 6.5 x 1010 particles and 9.9 x 1014 m2, respectively. Overall, the highest contributions were found to come from indoor cooking (female), working time (male) and transportation (i.e. traffic derived particles) (children).

A general method to determine sampling windows for nonlinear mixed effects models with an application to population pharmacokinetic studies

Optimal design methods have been proposed to determine the best sampling times when sparse blood sampling is required in clinical pharmacokinetic studies. However, the optimal blood sampling time points may not be feasible in clinical practice. Sampling windows, a time interval for blood sample collection, have been proposed to provide flexibility in blood sampling times while preserving efficient parameter estimation. Because of the complexity of the population pharmacokinetic models, which are generally nonlinear mixed effects models, there is no analytical solution available to determine sampling windows. We propose a method for determination of sampling windows based on MCMC sampling techniques. The proposed method attains a stationary distribution rapidly and provides time-sensitive windows around the optimal design points. The proposed method is applicable to determine sampling windows for any nonlinear mixed effects model although our work focuses on an application to population pharmacokinetic models.

Population structure of Bactrocera dorsalis s.s., B. papayae and B. philippinensis (Diptera: Tephritidae) in southeast Asia: evidence for a single species hypothesis using mitochondrial DNA and wingshape data

Background Bactrocera dorsalis s.s. is a pestiferous tephritid fruit fly distributed from Pakistan to the Pacific, with the Thai/Malay peninsula its southern limit. Sister pest taxa, B. papayae and B. philippinensis, occur in the southeast Asian archipelago and the Philippines, respectively. The relationship among these species is unclear due to their high molecular and morphological similarity. This study analysed population structure of these three species within a southeast Asian biogeographical context to assess potential dispersal patterns and the validity of their current taxonomic status. Results Geometric morphometric results generated from 15 landmarks for wings of 169 flies revealed significant differences in wing shape between almost all sites following canonical variate analysis. For the combined data set there was a greater isolation-by-distance (IBD) effect under a ‘non-Euclidean’ scenario which used geographical distances within a biogeographical ‘Sundaland context’ (r2 = 0.772, P < 0.0001) as compared to a ‘Euclidean’ scenario for which direct geographic distances between sample sites was used (r2 = 0.217, P < 0.01). COI sequence data were obtained for 156 individuals and yielded 83 unique haplotypes with no correlation to current taxonomic designations via a minimum spanning network. BEAST analysis provided a root age and location of 540kya in northern Thailand, with migration of B. dorsalis s.l. into Malaysia 470kya and Sumatra 270kya. Two migration events into the Philippines are inferred. Sequence data revealed a weak but significant IBD effect under the ‘non-Euclidean’ scenario (r2 = 0.110, P < 0.05), with no historical migration evident between Taiwan and the Philippines. Results are consistent with those expected at the intra-specific level. Conclusions Bactrocera dorsalis s.s., B. papayae and B. philippinensis likely represent one species structured around the South China Sea, having migrated from northern Thailand into the southeast Asian archipelago and across into the Philippines. No migration is apparent between the Philippines and Taiwan. This information has implications for quarantine, trade and pest management.

Anthropogenic landscape change promotes asymmetric dispersal and limits regional patch occupancy in a spatially structured bird population

1. Local extinctions in habitat patches and asymmetric dispersal between patches are key processes structuring animal populations in heterogeneous environments. Effective landscape conservation requires an understanding of how habitat loss and fragmentation influence demographic processes within populations and movement between populations. 2. We used patch occupancy surveys and molecular data for a rainforest bird, the logrunner (Orthonyx temminckii), to determine (i) the effects of landscape change and patch structure on local extinction; (ii) the asymmetry of emigration and immigration rates; (iii) the relative influence of local and between-population landscapes on asymmetric emigration and immigration; and (iv) the relative contributions of habitat loss and habitat fragmentation to asymmetric emigration and immigration. 3. Whether or not a patch was occupied by logrunners was primarily determined by the isolation of that patch. After controlling for patch isolation, patch occupancy declined in landscapes experiencing high levels of rainforest loss over the last 100 years. Habitat loss and fragmentation over the last century was more important than the current pattern of patch isolation alone, which suggested that immigration from neighbouring patches was unable to prevent local extinction in highly modified landscapes. 4. We discovered that dispersal between logrunner populations is highly asymmetric. Emigration rates were 39% lower when local landscapes were fragmented, but emigration was not limited by the structure of the between-population landscapes. In contrast, immigration was 37% greater when local landscapes were fragmented and was lower when the between-population landscapes were fragmented. Rainforest fragmentation influenced asymmetric dispersal to a greater extent than did rainforest loss, and a 60% reduction in mean patch area was capable of switching a population from being a net exporter to a net importer of dispersing logrunners. 5. The synergistic effects of landscape change on species occurrence and asymmetric dispersal have important implications for conservation. Conservation measures that maintain large patch sizes in the landscape may promote asymmetric dispersal from intact to fragmented landscapes and allow rainforest bird populations to persist in fragmented and degraded landscapes. These sink populations could form the kernel of source populations given sufficient habitat restoration. However, the success of this rescue effect will depend on the quality of the between-population landscapes.

Educational stress among Chinese adolescents : measurement, risk factors and associations with mental health

Academic pressure among adolescents is a major risk factor for poor mental health and suicide and other harmful behaviours. While this is a worldwide phenomenon, it appears to be especially pronounced in China and other East Asian countries. Despite a growing body of research into adolescent mental health in recent years, the multiple constructs within the ‘educational stress’ phenomenon have not been clearly articulated in Chinese contexts. Further, the individual, family, school and peer influencing factors for educational stress and its associations with adolescent mental health are not well understood. An in-depth investigation may provide important information for the ongoing educational reform in Mainland China with a special focus on students’ mental health and wellbeing. The primary goal of this study was to examine the relative contribution of educational stress to poor mental health, in comparison to other well-known individual, family, school and peer factors. Another important task was to identify significant risk factors for educational stress. In addition, due to the lack of a culturally suitable instrument for educational stress in this population, a new tool – the Educational Stress Scale for Adolescents (ESSA) was initially developed in this study and tested for reliability and validity. A self-administered questionnaire was used to collect information from convenient samples of secondary school students in Shandong, China. The pilot survey was conducted with 347 students (grades 8 and 11) to test the psychometric properties of the ESSA and other scales or questions in the questionnaire. Based on factor analysis and reliability and validity testing, the 16-item scale (the ESSA) with five factors showed adequate to good internal consistency, 2-week test-retest reliability, and satisfactory concurrent and predictive validity. Its factor structure was further demonstrated in the main survey with a confirmatory factor analysis illustrating a good fit of the proposed model based on a confirmatory factor analysis. The reliabilities of other scales and questions were also adequate to be used in this study. The main survey was subsequently conducted with a sample of 1627 secondary school (grades 7-12) students to examine the influencing factors of educational stress and its associations with mental health outcomes, including depression, happiness and suicidal behaviours. A wide range of individual, family, school and peer factors were found to have a significant association with the total ESSA and subscale scores. Most of the strong factors for academic stress were school or study-related, including rural school location, low school connectedness, perceived poor academic grades and frequent emotional conflicts with teachers and peers. Unexpectedly, family and parental factors, such as parental bonding, family connectedness and conflicts with parents were found to have little or no association with educational stress. Educational stress was the most predictive variable for depression, but was not strongly associated with happiness. It had a strong association with suicide ideation but not with suicide attempts. Among five subscales of the ESSA, ‘Study despondency’ score had the strongest associations with these mental health measures. Surprising, two subscales, ‘Self-expectation’ and ‘Worry about grades’ showed a protective effect on suicidal behaviours. An additional analysis revealed that although academic pressure was the most commonly reported reason for suicidal thinking, the occurrence of problems in peer relationships such as peer teasing and bullying, and romantic problems had a much stronger relationship with actual attempts. This study provides some insights into the nature and health implications of educational stress among Chinese adolescents. Findings in this study suggest that interventions on educational stress should focus on school environment and academic factors. Intervention programs focused on educational stress may have a high impact on the prevalence of common mental disorders such as depression. Efforts to increase perceived happiness however should cover a wider range of individual, family and school factors. The importance of healthy peer relationships should be adequately emphasised in suicide prevention. In addition, the newly developed scale (the ESSA) demonstrates sound psychometric properties and is expected to be used in future research into academic-related stress among secondary school adolescents.

Seasonal variation in cardiovascular disease risk factors in a subarctic population : the Tromso Study 1979-2008

Background Seasonal changes in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors may be due to exposure to seasonal environmental variables like temperature and acute infections or seasonal behavioural patterns in physical activity and diet. Investigating the seasonal pattern of risk factors should help determine the causes of the seasonal pattern in CVD. Few studies have investigated the seasonal variation in risk factors using repeated measurements from the same individual, which is important as individual and population seasonal patterns may differ. Methods The authors investigated the seasonal pattern in systolic and diastolic blood pressure, heart rate, body weight, total cholesterol, triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, C reactive protein and fibrinogen. Measurements came from 38 037 participants in the population-based cohort, the Tromsø Study, examined up to eight times from 1979 to 2008. Individual and population seasonal patterns were estimated using a cosinor in a mixed model. Results All risk factors had a highly statistically significant seasonal pattern with a peak time in winter, except for triglycerides (peak in autumn), C reactive protein and fibrinogen (peak in spring). The sizes of the seasonal variations were clinically modest. Conclusions Although the authors found highly statistically significant individual seasonal patterns for all risk factors, the sizes of the changes were modest, probably because this subarctic population is well adapted to a harsh climate. Better protection against seasonal risk factors like cold weather could help reduce the winter excess in CVD observed in milder climates.

Clines in cuticular hydrocarbons in two Drosophila species with independent population histories

We took a comparative approach utilizing clines to investigate the extent to which natural selection may have shaped population divergence in cuticular hydrocarbons (CHCs) that are also under sexual selection in Drosophila. We detected the presence of CHC clines along a latitudinal gradient on the east coast of Australia in two fly species with independent phylogenetic and population histories, suggesting adaptation to shared abiotic factors. For both species, significant associations were detected between clinal variation in CHCs and temperature variation along the gradient, suggesting temperature maxima as a candidate abiotic factor shaping CHC variation among populations. However, rainfall and humidity correlated with CHC variation to differing extents in the two species, suggesting that response to these abiotic factors may vary in a species-specific manner. Our results suggest that natural selection, in addition to sexual selection, plays a significant role in structuring among-population variation in sexually selected traits in Drosophila.

Australian lungfish (Neoceratodus forsteri: Dipnoi) have low genetic variation at allozyme and mitochondrial DNA loci : a conservation alert?

Genetic variation at allozyme and mitochondrial DNA loci was investigated in the Australian lungfish, Neoceratodus forsteri Krefft 1870. Tissue samples for genetic analysis were taken non-lethally from 278 individuals representing two spatially distinct endemic populations (Mary and Burnett rivers), as well as one population thought to be derived from an anthropogenic translocation in the 1890's (Brisbane river). Two of 24 allozyme loci resolved from muscle tissue were polymorphic. Mitochondrial DNA nucleotide sequence diversity estimated across 2,235 base pairs in each of 40 individuals ranged between 0.000423 and 0.001470 per river. Low genetic variation at allozyme and mitochondrial loci could be attributed to population bottlenecks, possibly induced by Pleistocene aridity. Limited genetic differentiation was detected among rivers using nuclear and mitochondrial markers suggesting that admixture may have occurred between the endemic Mary and Burnett populations during periods of low sea level when the drainages may have converged before reaching the ocean. Genetic data was consistent with the explanation that lungfish were introduced to the Brisbane river from the Mary river. Further research using more variable genetic loci is needed before the conservation status of populations can be determined, particularly as anthropogenic demands on lungfish habitat are increasing. In the interim we recommend a management strategy aimed at conserving existing genetic variation within and between rivers.

Infertility in Australia circa 1980 : an historical population perspective on the uptake of fertility treatment by Australian women born in 1946-51

Objective: To estimate the prevalence of lifetime infertility in Australian women born in 1946-51 and examine their uptake of treatment. Methods: Participants in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health born in 1946-51 (n=13,715) completed up to four mailed surveys from 1996 to 2004. The odds of infertility were estimated using logistic regression with adjustment for socio-demographic and reproductive factors. Results: Among participants, 92.1% had been pregnant. For women who had been pregnant (n=12738): 56.5% had at least one birth but no pregnancy loss (miscarriage and/or termination); 39.9% experienced both birth and loss; and 3.6% had a loss only. The lifetime prevalence of infertility was 11.0%. Among women who reported infertility (n=1511), 41.7% used treatment. Women had higher odds of infertility when they had reproductive histories of losses only (OR range 9.0-43.5) or had never been pregnant (OR=15.7, 95%CI 11.8-20.8); and higher odds for treatment: losses only (OR range 2.5-9.8); or never pregnant (1.96, 1.28-3.00). Women who delayed their first birth until aged 30+ years had higher odds of treatment (OR range 3.2-4.3). Conclusions: About one in ten women experienced infertility and almost half used some form of treatment, especially those attempting pregnancy after 1980. Older first time mothers had an increased uptake of treatment as assisted reproductive technologies (ART) developed. Implications: This study provided evidence of the early uptake of treatment prior to 1979 when the national register of invasive ART was developed and later uptake prior to 1998 when data on non-invasive ART were first collected.

Infertility, medical advice and treatment with fertility hormones and/or in vitro fertilisation: a population perspective from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health

OBJECTIVE: To identify the factors associated with infertility, seeking advice and treatment with fertility hormones and/or in vitro fertilisation (IVF) among a general population of women. METHODS: Participants in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health aged 28-33 years in 2006 had completed up to four mailed surveys over 10 years (n=9,145). Parsimonious multivariate logistic regression was used to identify the socio-demographic, biological (including reproductive histories), and behavioural factors associated with infertility, advice and hormonal/IVF treatment. RESULTS: For women who had tried to conceive or had been pregnant (n=5,936), 17% reported infertility. Among women with infertility (n=1031), 72% (n=728) sought advice but only 50% (n=356) used hormonal/IVF treatment. Women had higher odds of infertility when: they had never been pregnant (OR=7.2, 95% CI 5.6-9.1) or had a history of miscarriage (OR range=1.5-4.0) than those who had given birth (and never had a miscarriage or termination). CONCLUSION: Only one-third of women with infertility used hormonal and/or IVF treatment. Women with PCOS or endometriosis were the most proactive in having sought advice and used hormonal/IVF treatment. IMPLICATIONS: Raised awareness of age-related declining fertility is important for partnered women aged approximately 30 years to encourage pregnancy during their prime reproductive years and reduce the risk of infertility.

Infertility resolved with or without fertility treatment in Australian women aged 31-36 years: A prospective, population-based study [abstract]

Birth outcomes during a three year period were compared for women with a history of infertility who did or did not use fertility treatment with hormones and/or in vitro fertilisation. Participants in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women’s Health born in 1973-78 were randomly selected from the universal public health insurance database and completed up to five mailed surveys (1996-2009). Participants reported on their infertility and use of treatment at age 28-33 years (survey 4 (S4) in 2006) and 31-36 years (survey 5 (S5) in 2009). The odds of resolved infertility at S5 were estimated using logistic regression with adjustment for age, area of residence, private health insurance and male infertility. Among 7280 women who responded to both S4 and S5, 18.6% (n=1378) reported infertility. More than half (n=804, 56.8%) of these women did not use treatment and 43.9% (n=347) gave birth between S4 and S5. Compared to infertile women who did not use treatment, women who used treatment were more likely at S5 to have recently given birth (odds ratio (OR) = 1.59, 95% CI 1.26-2.00) or be pregnant (OR = 1.77, 1.27-2.46). Further, women who used treatment were more likely to have twins (3.37, 1.18-9.62), premature births (1.52, 0.95-2.43), or low birthweight babies (1.83, 0.70-2.53) compared to women who gave birth without using treatment. Many women aged up to 36 years with a history of infertility can conceive naturally over a three year period without the use of treatment.Women who have never had a prior birth may need to use treatment to resolve their infertility but they are at higher risk of poorer perinatal outcomes, such as premature or low birthweight babies.

Birth outcomes after spontaneous or assisted conception among infertile Australian women aged 28 to 36 years: A prospective, population-based study

Objective To examine the extent to which the odds of birth, pregnancy, or adverse birth outcomes are higher among women aged 28 to 36 years who use fertility treatment compared with untreated women. Design Prospective, population-based. Setting Not applicable. Patient(s) Participants in the ALSWH born in 1973 to 1978 who reported on their infertility and use of in vitro fertilization (IVF) or ovulation induction (OI). Intervention(s) Postal survey questionnaires administered as part of ALSWH. Main Outcome Measure(s) Among women treated with IVF or OI and untreated women, the odds of birth outcomes estimated by use of adjusted logistic regression modeling. Result(s) Among 7,280 women, 18.6% (n = 1,376) reported infertility. Half (53.0%) of the treated women gave birth compared with 43.8% of untreated women. Women with prior parity were less likely to use IVF compared with nulliparous women. Women using IVF or OI, respectively, were more likely to have given birth after treatment or be pregnant compared with untreated women. Women using IVF or OI were as likely to have ectopic pregnancies, stillbirths, or premature or low birthweight babies as untreated women. Conclusion(s) More than 40% of women aged 28–36 years reporting a history of infertility can achieve births without using treatment, indicating they are subfertile rather than infertile.

A variable-stepsize Jacobian-free exponential integrator for simulating transport in heterogeneous porous media : application to wood drying

A Jacobian-free variable-stepsize method is developed for the numerical integration of the large, stiff systems of differential equations encountered when simulating transport in heterogeneous porous media. Our method utilises the exponential Rosenbrock-Euler method, which is explicit in nature and requires a matrix-vector product involving the exponential of the Jacobian matrix at each step of the integration process. These products can be approximated using Krylov subspace methods, which permit a large integration stepsize to be utilised without having to precondition the iterations. This means that our method is truly "Jacobian-free" - the Jacobian need never be formed or factored during the simulation. We assess the performance of the new algorithm for simulating the drying of softwood. Numerical experiments conducted for both low and high temperature drying demonstrates that the new approach outperforms (in terms of accuracy and efficiency) existing simulation codes that utilise the backward Euler method via a preconditioned Newton-Krylov strategy.

Lost and found : improving ascertainment of refugee-background Australians in population datasets

Humanitarian entrants remain invisible in existing populations datasets, and this has significant implications for health care and health policy. We suggest adding 'year of arrival' to population datasets; enabling the combination of 'country of birth' and 'year of arrival' to be used as a proxy for refugee status.