From Regional Landslide Detection to Site-Specific Slope Deformation Monitoring and Modelling Based on Active Remote Sensors

Landslide processes can have direct and indirect consequences affecting human lives and activities. In order to improve landslide risk management procedures, this PhD thesis aims to investigate capabilities of active LiDAR and RaDAR sensors for landslides detection and characterization at regional scales, spatial risk assessment over large areas and slope instabilities monitoring and modelling at site-specific scales. At regional scales, we first demonstrated recent boat-based mobile LiDAR capabilities to model topography of the Normand coastal cliffs. By comparing annual acquisitions, we validated as well our approach to detect surface changes and thus map rock collapses, landslides and toe erosions affecting the shoreline at a county scale. Then, we applied a spaceborne InSAR approach to detect large slope instabilities in Argentina. Based on both phase and amplitude RaDAR signals, we extracted decisive information to detect, characterize and monitor two unknown extremely slow landslides, and to quantify water level variations of an involved close dam reservoir. Finally, advanced investigations on fragmental rockfall risk assessment were conducted along roads of the Val de Bagnes, by improving approaches of the Slope Angle Distribution and the FlowR software. Therefore, both rock-mass-failure susceptibilities and relative frequencies of block propagations were assessed and rockfall hazard and risk maps could be established at the valley scale. At slope-specific scales, in the Swiss Alps, we first integrated ground-based InSAR and terrestrial LiDAR acquisitions to map, monitor and model the Perraire rock slope deformation. By interpreting both methods individually and originally integrated as well, we therefore delimited the rockslide borders, computed volumes and highlighted non-uniform translational displacements along a wedge failure surface. Finally, we studied specific requirements and practical issues experimented on early warning systems of some of the most studied landslides worldwide. As a result, we highlighted valuable key recommendations to design new reliable systems; in addition, we also underlined conceptual issues that must be solved to improve current procedures. To sum up, the diversity of experimented situations brought an extensive experience that revealed the potential and limitations of both methods and highlighted as well the necessity of their complementary and integrated uses.

Modelling the disability severity score in motor insurance claims: an application to the Spanish case

Bodily injury claims have the greatest impact on the claim costs of motor insurance companies. The disability severity of motor claims is assessed in numerous European countries by means of score systems. In this paper a zero inflated generalized Poisson regression model is implemented to estimate the disability severity score of victims in-volved in motor accidents on Spanish roads. We show that the injury severity estimates may be automatically converted into financial terms by insurers at any point of the claim handling process. As such, the methodology described may be used by motor insurers operating in the Spanish market to monitor the size of bodily injury claims. By using insurance data, various applications are presented in which the score estimate of disability severity is of value to insurers, either for computing the claim compensation or for claim reserve purposes.

Non-Linear Journal Bearing Model for Analysis of Superharmonic Vibrations of Rotor Systems

A rotating machine usually consists of a rotor and bearings that supports it. The nonidealities in these components may excite vibration of the rotating system. The uncontrolled vibrations may lead to excessive wearing of the components of the rotating machine or reduce the process quality. Vibrations may be harmful even when amplitudes are seemingly low, as is usually the case in superharmonic vibration that takes place below the first critical speed of the rotating machine. Superharmonic vibration is excited when the rotational velocity of the machine is a fraction of the natural frequency of the system. In such a situation, a part of the machine’s rotational energy is transformed into vibration energy. The amount of vibration energy should be minimised in the design of rotating machines. The superharmonic vibration phenomena can be studied by analysing the coupled rotor-bearing system employing a multibody simulation approach. This research is focused on the modelling of hydrodynamic journal bearings and rotorbearing systems supported by journal bearings. In particular, the non-idealities affecting the rotor-bearing system and their effect on the superharmonic vibration of the rotating system are analysed. A comparison of computationally efficient journal bearing models is carried out in order to validate one model for further development. The selected bearing model is improved in order to take the waviness of the shaft journal into account. The improved model is implemented and analyzed in a multibody simulation code. A rotor-bearing system that consists of a flexible tube roll, two journal bearings and a supporting structure is analysed employing the multibody simulation technique. The modelled non-idealities are the shell thickness variation in the tube roll and the waviness of the shaft journal in the bearing assembly. Both modelled non-idealities may cause subharmonic resonance in the system. In multibody simulation, the coupled effect of the non-idealities can be captured in the analysis. Additionally one non-ideality is presented that does not excite the vibrations itself but affects the response of the rotorbearing system, namely the waviness of the bearing bushing which is the non-rotating part of the bearing system. The modelled system is verified with measurements performed on a test rig. In the measurements the waviness of bearing bushing was not measured and therefore it’s affect on the response was not verified. In conclusion, the selected modelling approach is an appropriate method when analysing the response of the rotor-bearing system. When comparing the simulated results to the measured ones, the overall agreement between the results is concluded to be good.

Modelling nitrogen and phosphorus loads in a Mediterranean river catchment (La Tordera, NE Spain)

Human activities have resulted in increased nutrient levels in many rivers all over Europe. Sustainable management of river basins demands an assessment of the causes and consequences of human alteration of nutrient flows, together with an evaluation of management options. In the context of an integrated and interdisciplinary environmental assessment (IEA) of nutrient flows, we present and discuss the application of the nutrient emission model MONERIS (MOdelling Nutrient Emissions into River Systems) to the Catalan river basin, La Tordera (north-east Spain), for the period 1996–2002. After a successful calibration and verification process (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies E=0.85 for phosphorus and E=0.86 for nitrogen), the application of the model MONERIS proved to be useful in estimating nutrient loads. Crucial for model calibration, in-stream retention was estimated to be about 50 % of nutrient emissions on an annual basis. Through this process, we identified the importance of point sources for phosphorus emissions (about 94% for 1996–2002), and diffuse sources, especially inputs via groundwater, for nitrogen emissions (about 31% for 1996–2002). Despite hurdles related to model structure, observed loads, and input data encountered during the modelling process, MONERIS provided a good representation of the major interannual and spatial patterns in nutrient emissions. An analysis of the model uncertainty and sensitivity to input data indicates that the model MONERIS, even in data-starved Mediterranean catchments, may be profitably used by water managers for evaluating quantitative nutrient emission scenarios for the purpose of managing river basins. As an example of scenario modelling, an analysis of the changes in nutrient emissions through two different future scenarios allowed the identification of a set of relevant measures to reduce nutrient loads.

Salient Pole Synchronous Machine Modelling in an Industrial Direct Torque Controlled Drive Application

Synchronous motors are used mainly in large drives, for example in ship propulsion systems and in steel factories' rolling mills because of their high efficiency, high overload capacity and good performance in the field weakening range. This, however, requires an extremely good torque control system. A fast torque response and a torque accuracy are basic requirements for such a drive. For large power, high dynamic performance drives the commonly known principle of field oriented vector control has been used solely hitherto, but nowadays it is not the only way to implement such a drive. A new control method Direct Torque Control (DTC) has also emerged. The performance of such a high quality torque control as DTC in dynamically demanding industrial applications is mainly based on the accurate estimate of the various flux linkages' space vectors. Nowadays industrial motor control systems are real time applications with restricted calculation capacity. At the same time the control system requires a simple, fast calculable and reasonably accurate motor model. In this work a method to handle these problems in a Direct Torque Controlled (DTC) salient pole synchronous motor drive is proposed. A motor model which combines the induction law based "voltage model" and motor inductance parameters based "current model" is presented. The voltage model operates as a main model and is calculated at a very fast sampling rate (for example 40 kHz). The stator flux linkage calculated via integration from the stator voltages is corrected using the stator flux linkage computed from the current model. The current model acts as a supervisor that prevents only the motor stator flux linkage from drifting erroneous during longer time intervals. At very low speeds the role of the current model is emphasised but, nevertheless, the voltage model always stays the main model. At higher speeds the function of the current model correction is to act as a stabiliser of the control system. The current model contains a set of inductance parameters which must be known. The validation of the current model in steady state is not self evident. It depends on the accuracy of the saturated value of the inductances. Parameter measurement of the motor model where the supply inverter is used as a measurement signal generator is presented. This so called identification run can be performed prior to delivery or during drive commissioning. A derivation method for the inductance models used for the representation of the saturation effects is proposed. The performance of the electrically excited synchronous motor supplied with the DTC inverter is proven with experimental results. It is shown that it is possible to obtain a good static accuracy of the DTC's torque controller for an electrically excited synchronous motor. The dynamic response is fast and a new operation point is achieved without oscillation. The operation is stable throughout the speed range. The modelling of the magnetising inductance saturation is essential and cross saturation has to be considered as well. The effect of cross saturation is very significant. A DTC inverter can be used as a measuring equipment and the parameters needed for the motor model can be defined by the inverter itself. The main advantage is that the parameters defined are measured in similar magnetic operation conditions and no disagreement between the parameters will exist. The inductance models generated are adequate to meet the requirements of dynamically demanding drives.

Minimization of the experimental workload for the prediction of pollutants propagation in rivers. Mathematical modelling and knowledge re-use

The present thesis in focused on the minimization of experimental efforts for the prediction of pollutant propagation in rivers by mathematical modelling and knowledge re-use. Mathematical modelling is based on the well known advection-dispersion equation, while the knowledge re-use approach employs the methods of case based reasoning, graphical analysis and text mining. The thesis contribution to the pollutant transport research field consists of: (1) analytical and numerical models for pollutant transport prediction; (2) two novel techniques which enable the use of variable parameters along rivers in analytical models; (3) models for the estimation of pollutant transport characteristic parameters (velocity, dispersion coefficient and nutrient transformation rates) as functions of water flow, channel characteristics and/or seasonality; (4) the graphical analysis method to be used for the identification of pollution sources along rivers; (5) a case based reasoning tool for the identification of crucial information related to the pollutant transport modelling; (6) and the application of a software tool for the reuse of information during pollutants transport modelling research. These support tools are applicable in the water quality research field and in practice as well, as they can be involved in multiple activities. The models are capable of predicting pollutant propagation along rivers in case of both ordinary pollution and accidents. They can also be applied for other similar rivers in modelling of pollutant transport in rivers with low availability of experimental data concerning concentration. This is because models for parameter estimation developed in the present thesis enable the calculation of transport characteristic parameters as functions of river hydraulic parameters and/or seasonality. The similarity between rivers is assessed using case based reasoning tools, and additional necessary information can be identified by using the software for the information reuse. Such systems represent support for users and open up possibilities for new modelling methods, monitoring facilities and for better river water quality management tools. They are useful also for the estimation of environmental impact of possible technological changes and can be applied in the pre-design stage or/and in the practical use of processes as well.

Effect of hydrodynamics on modelling, monitoring and control of crystallization

Crystallization is a purification method used to obtain crystalline product of a certain crystal size. It is one of the oldest industrial unit processes and commonly used in modern industry due to its good purification capability from rather impure solutions with reasonably low energy consumption. However, the process is extremely challenging to model and control because it involves inhomogeneous mixing and many simultaneous phenomena such as nucleation, crystal growth and agglomeration. All these phenomena are dependent on supersaturation, i.e. the difference between actual liquid phase concentration and solubility. Homogeneous mass and heat transfer in the crystallizer would greatly simplify modelling and control of crystallization processes, such conditions are, however, not the reality, especially in industrial scale processes. Consequently, the hydrodynamics of crystallizers, i.e. the combination of mixing, feed and product removal flows, and recycling of the suspension, needs to be thoroughly investigated. Understanding of hydrodynamics is important in crystallization, especially inlargerscale equipment where uniform flow conditions are difficult to attain. It is also important to understand different size scales of mixing; micro-, meso- and macromixing. Fast processes, like nucleation and chemical reactions, are typically highly dependent on micro- and mesomixing but macromixing, which equalizes the concentrations of all the species within the entire crystallizer, cannot be disregarded. This study investigates the influence of hydrodynamics on crystallization processes. Modelling of crystallizers with the mixed suspension mixed product removal (MSMPR) theory (ideal mixing), computational fluid dynamics (CFD), and a compartmental multiblock model is compared. The importance of proper verification of CFD and multiblock models is demonstrated. In addition, the influence of different hydrodynamic conditions on reactive crystallization process control is studied. Finally, the effect of extreme local supersaturation is studied using power ultrasound to initiate nucleation. The present work shows that mixing and chemical feeding conditions clearly affect induction time and cluster formation, nucleation, growth kinetics, and agglomeration. Consequently, the properties of crystalline end products, e.g. crystal size and crystal habit, can be influenced by management of mixing and feeding conditions. Impurities may have varying impacts on crystallization processes. As an example, manganese ions were shown to replace magnesium ions in the crystal lattice of magnesium sulphate heptahydrate, increasing the crystal growth rate significantly, whereas sodium ions showed no interaction at all. Modelling of continuous crystallization based on MSMPR theory showed that the model is feasible in a small laboratoryscale crystallizer, whereas in larger pilot- and industrial-scale crystallizers hydrodynamic effects should be taken into account. For that reason, CFD and multiblock modelling are shown to be effective tools for modelling crystallization with inhomogeneous mixing. The present work shows also that selection of the measurement point, or points in the case of multiprobe systems, is crucial when process analytical technology (PAT) is used to control larger scale crystallization. The thesis concludes by describing how control of local supersaturation by highly localized ultrasound was successfully applied to induce nucleation and to control polymorphism in reactive crystallization of L-glutamic acid.

CFD Modelling of Direct Contact Condensation in Suppression Pools by Applying Condensation Models of Separated Flow

The condensation rate has to be high in the safety pressure suppression pool systems of Boiling Water Reactors (BWR) in order to fulfill their safety function. The phenomena due to such a high direct contact condensation (DCC) rate turn out to be very challenging to be analysed either with experiments or numerical simulations. In this thesis, the suppression pool experiments carried out in the POOLEX facility of Lappeenranta University of Technology were simulated. Two different condensation modes were modelled by using the 2-phase CFD codes NEPTUNE CFD and TransAT. The DCC models applied were the typical ones to be used for separated flows in channels, and their applicability to the rapidly condensing flow in the condensation pool context had not been tested earlier. A low Reynolds number case was the first to be simulated. The POOLEX experiment STB-31 was operated near the conditions between the ’quasi-steady oscillatory interface condensation’ mode and the ’condensation within the blowdown pipe’ mode. The condensation models of Lakehal et al. and Coste & Lavi´eville predicted the condensation rate quite accurately, while the other tested ones overestimated it. It was possible to get the direct phase change solution to settle near to the measured values, but a very high resolution of calculation grid was needed. Secondly, a high Reynolds number case corresponding to the ’chugging’ mode was simulated. The POOLEX experiment STB-28 was chosen, because various standard and highspeed video samples of bubbles were recorded during it. In order to extract numerical information from the video material, a pattern recognition procedure was programmed. The bubble size distributions and the frequencies of chugging were calculated with this procedure. With the statistical data of the bubble sizes and temporal data of the bubble/jet appearance, it was possible to compare the condensation rates between the experiment and the CFD simulations. In the chugging simulations, a spherically curvilinear calculation grid at the blowdown pipe exit improved the convergence and decreased the required cell count. The compressible flow solver with complete steam-tables was beneficial for the numerical success of the simulations. The Hughes-Duffey model and, to some extent, the Coste & Lavi´eville model produced realistic chugging behavior. The initial level of the steam/water interface was an important factor to determine the initiation of the chugging. If the interface was initialized with a water level high enough inside the blowdown pipe, the vigorous penetration of a water plug into the pool created a turbulent wake which invoked the chugging that was self-sustaining. A 3D simulation with a suitable DCC model produced qualitatively very realistic shapes of the chugging bubbles and jets. The comparative FFT analysis of the bubble size data and the pool bottom pressure data gave useful information to distinguish the eigenmodes of chugging, bubbling, and pool structure oscillations.

Loss Modelling of Three-Level Inverters controlled with Space Vector Modulation Technique

The objective of this master’s thesis is to investigate the loss behavior of three-level ANPC inverter and compare it with conventional NPC inverter. The both inverters are controlled with mature space vector modulation strategy. In order to provide the comparison both accurate and detailed enough NPC and ANPC simulation models should be obtained. The similar control model of SVM is utilized for both NPC and ANPC inverter models. The principles of control algorithms, the structure and description of models are clarified. The power loss calculation model is based on practical calculation approaches with certain assumptions. The comparison between NPC and ANPC topologies is presented based on results obtained for each semiconductor device, their switching and conduction losses and efficiency of the inverters. Alternative switching states of ANPC topology allow distributing losses among the switches more evenly, than in NPC inverter. Obviously, the losses of a switching device depend on its position in the topology. Losses distribution among the components in ANPC topology allows reducing the stress on certain switches, thus losses are equally distributed among the semiconductors, however the efficiency of the inverters is the same. As a new contribution to earlier studies, the obtained models of SVM control, NPC and ANPC inverters have been built. Thus, this thesis can be used in further more complicated modelling of full-power converters for modern multi-megawatt wind energy conversion systems.

Improving strategic decision-making with simulation based decision support systems

Combating climate change is one of the key tasks of humanity in the 21st century. One of the leading causes is carbon dioxide emissions due to usage of fossil fuels. Renewable energy sources should be used instead of relying on oil, gas, and coal. In Finland a significant amount of energy is produced using wood. The usage of wood chips is expected to increase in the future significantly, over 60 %. The aim of this research is to improve understanding over the costs of wood chip supply chains. This is conducted by utilizing simulation as the main research method. The simulation model utilizes both agent-based modelling and discrete event simulation to imitate the wood chip supply chain. This thesis concentrates on the usage of simulation based decision support systems in strategic decision-making. The simulation model is part of a decision support system, which connects the simulation model to databases but also provides a graphical user interface for the decisionmaker. The main analysis conducted with the decision support system concentrates on comparing a traditional supply chain to a supply chain utilizing specialized containers. According to the analysis, the container supply chain is able to have smaller costs than the traditional supply chain. Also, a container supply chain can be more easily scaled up due to faster emptying operations. Initially the container operations would only supply part of the fuel needs of a power plant and it would complement the current supply chain. The model can be expanded to include intermodal supply chains as due to increased demand in the future there is not enough wood chips located close to current and future power plants.

Trustworthy context dependency in ubiquitous systems

The modern society is getting increasingly dependent on software applications. These run on processors, use memory and account for controlling functionalities that are often taken for granted. Typically, applications adjust the functionality in response to a certain context that is provided or derived from the informal environment with various qualities. To rigorously model the dependence of an application on a context, the details of the context are abstracted and the environment is assumed stable and fixed. However, in a context-aware ubiquitous computing environment populated by autonomous agents, a context and its quality parameters may change at any time. This raises the need to derive the current context and its qualities at runtime. It also implies that a context is never certain and may be subjective, issues captured by the context’s quality parameter of experience-based trustworthiness. Given this, the research question of this thesis is: In what logical topology and by what means may context provided by autonomous agents be derived and formally modelled to serve the context-awareness requirements of an application? This research question also stipulates that the context derivation needs to incorporate the quality of the context. In this thesis, we focus on the quality of context parameter of trustworthiness based on experiences having a level of certainty and referral experiences, thus making trustworthiness reputation based. Hence, in this thesis we seek a basis on which to reason and analyse the inherently inaccurate context derived by autonomous agents populating a ubiquitous computing environment in order to formally model context-awareness. More specifically, the contribution of this thesis is threefold: (i) we propose a logical topology of context derivation and a method of calculating its trustworthiness, (ii) we provide a general model for storing experiences and (iii) we formalise the dependence between the logical topology of context derivation and its experience-based trustworthiness. These contributions enable abstraction of a context and its quality parameters to a Boolean decision at runtime that may be formally reasoned with. We employ the Action Systems framework for modelling this. The thesis is a compendium of the author’s scientific papers, which are republished in Part II. Part I introduces the field of research by providing the mending elements for the thesis to be a coherent introduction for addressing the research question. In Part I we also review a significant body of related literature in order to better illustrate our contributions to the research field.

Formal development and quantitative verification of dependable systems

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Reusable formal architectures for networked systems

Today's networked systems are becoming increasingly complex and diverse. The current simulation and runtime verification techniques do not provide support for developing such systems efficiently; moreover, the reliability of the simulated/verified systems is not thoroughly ensured. To address these challenges, the use of formal techniques to reason about network system development is growing, while at the same time, the mathematical background necessary for using formal techniques is a barrier for network designers to efficiently employ them. Thus, these techniques are not vastly used for developing networked systems. The objective of this thesis is to propose formal approaches for the development of reliable networked systems, by taking efficiency into account. With respect to reliability, we propose the architectural development of correct-by-construction networked system models. With respect to efficiency, we propose reusable network architectures as well as network development. At the core of our development methodology, we employ the abstraction and refinement techniques for the development and analysis of networked systems. We evaluate our proposal by employing the proposed architectures to a pervasive class of dynamic networks, i.e., wireless sensor network architectures as well as to a pervasive class of static networks, i.e., network-on-chip architectures. The ultimate goal of our research is to put forward the idea of building libraries of pre-proved rules for the efficient modelling, development, and analysis of networked systems. We take into account both qualitative and quantitative analysis of networks via varied formal tool support, using a theorem prover the Rodin platform and a statistical model checker the SMC-Uppaal.

Fluid dynamic modelling and simulation of circulating fluidized bed reactors: importance of the interface turbulence transfer

The main objective of this work is to analyze the importance of the gas-solid interface transfer of the kinetic energy of the turbulent motion on the accuracy of prediction of the fluid dynamic of Circulating Fluidized Bed (CFB) reactors. CFB reactors are used in a variety of industrial applications related to combustion, incineration and catalytic cracking. In this work a two-dimensional fluid dynamic model for gas-particle flow has been used to compute the porosity, the pressure, and the velocity fields of both phases in 2-D axisymmetrical cylindrical co-ordinates. The fluid dynamic model is based on the two fluid model approach in which both phases are considered to be continuous and fully interpenetrating. CFB processes are essentially turbulent. The model of effective stress on each phase is that of a Newtonian fluid, where the effective gas viscosity was calculated from the standard k-epsilon turbulence model and the transport coefficients of the particulate phase were calculated from the kinetic theory of granular flow (KTGF). This work shows that the turbulence transfer between the phases is very important for a better representation of the fluid dynamics of CFB reactors, especially for systems with internal recirculation and high gradients of particle concentration. Two systems with different characteristics were analyzed. The results were compared with experimental data available in the literature. The results were obtained by using a computer code developed by the authors. The finite volume method with collocated grid, the hybrid interpolation scheme, the false time step strategy and SIMPLEC (Semi-Implicit Method for Pressure Linked Equations - Consistent) algorithm were used to obtain the numerical solution.

Petri Net approach for modelling system integration in intelligent buildings

In this paper, a Petri Net approach is introduced for modelling and simulation of control strategies in Intelligent Building. In this context, it is claimed that integration with other building systems can be achieved in a more systematic way considering a mechatronic approach (i.e. multidisciplinary concepts applied to the development of systems). The case study is the Ambulatory Building of Medical School Hospital of University of São Paulo. Particularly, the developed methodology is applied to the elevator system and to the HVAC (Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning) system. It is shown that using this approach, the control systems could be integrated, improving performance.