Simulation Results of AgriPoliS about Diminishing Capital Subsidies and Restrictions. Factor Markets Working Document No. 55, June 2013

This paper investigates the impacts of high interest rates for borrowed capital and credit restrictions on the structural development of four European regions. The method used is the model AgriPoliS which is a spatial-dynamic agent-based model. It is able to provide aggregated results at the regional level, but very individual results as well by considering farms as independent entities. Farms can choose between different investment options during the simulation. Several scenarios with different interest rates for borrowed capital on the one hand as well as with different levels of credit restrictions on the other hand are tested and compared. Results show that higher interest rates have less impact on declining production branches than on expanding ones. If they have the possibility farms invest in the most profitable production branch which relative profitability might have changed with high interest rates. Credit restrictions lead farms to choose smaller and cheaper investments than expensive and large ones. Results also show that income losses in both cases due to under-investment compared to the reference situation are partially compensated by lower rental prices. The impacts on structural change also differ depending on the region and the initial situation. In summary, credit subsidies or imperfections on credit markets might have indirect impacts on the type of dominant investment and therefore on the whole regional agricultural sector as well.

The Role of Pluriactivity in Farm Exit and Labour Supply Decisions. Factor Markets Working Document No. 67, August 2013

EDITED VERSION TO BE PUBLISHED SOON Pluriactivity has been a topic of research in agriculture for the best part of a century. It is a term which has both broad and narrow definitions and hence is subject to multiple interpretations. This paper considers two forms of pluriactivity: within the farm gate pluriactivity, also commonly referred to as farm diversification, and beyond the farm-gate pluriactivity, also known as multiple job holding. Previous studies of pluriactivity have shown that it can inhibit the natural process of structural change in the farm sector, by allowing small and unprofitable farms to survive with the support of income from outside the sector. In this paper, two empirical models of pluriactivity are estimated using farm level data for Ireland. The first examines the impact of on-farm diversification on off-farm labour supply, while the second investigates the relationship between off-farm labour supply and farm exit which is specified in the context of retirement and non-succession. The result of the first model suggests that farms that engage in within the farm gate pluriactivity are less likely to engage in beyond the farm gate pluriactivity, in other words more diversified farmers are less likely to work off farm. The second model confirms previous findings in the literature that part-time farmers have a reduced probability of having a farm successor. While the model results are specific to the Irish case, they do provide some value insights into the impacts of pluriactivity on structural change in farming.

Germany's European Policy: A Constructivist Perspective. CES Germany & Europe Working Papers, No. 08.1, 1998

This paper sets out a constructivist analytical framework and applies it to post-reunification German policy towards the European Union. Although the structural constraints facing Germany shifted dramatically with the end of the Cold War and reunification, the direction of its European policy did not. The more powerful Federal Republic continued to press for deeper economic and political integration, eschewing a more independent or assertive foreign policy course. Neorealism, neoliberalism, and liberalism cannot adequately explain this continuity in the face of structural change; a constructivist account centered around state identity can. During and after reunification, German leaders across the political spectrum identified the Federal Republic as part of an emergent supranational community. This European identity, with roots in the postwar decades, drove Germany's unflagging support for deeper integration across the 1989-90 divide.

"Where is the Wealth?" Echoing the King's 2014 speech in light of the delay in the implementation of the new Constitution. Arab Citizenship Review No. 16, 19 February 2016

In Morocco, the new Constitution promised by King Mohammed VI in 2011 has raised high expectations regarding the improvement of socio-economic standards in the country and the possible redistribution of national wealth in a more transparent and democratic way. Just like Tunisia and Egypt, Moroccan demonstrators of the 20 February Movement had taken to the streets to ask for more freedom and democracy, but also to call for social equality and an end to corruption. Many of the grievances and the claims raised by demonstrators fell within the domain of socio-economic rights. Even though it might still be early to take stock, five years down the road, it is possible to provide a fist assessment of the major changes in Morocco in the socio-economic area. The attempt is to analyse whether the improvements introduced by the new Constitution have met the expectations of the people standing up for their rights in the wake of the Arab Spring, or whether the Kingdom of Morocco has fallen short on its promise to undertake structural change.

Prospective longitudinal voxel-based morphometry study of major depressive disorder in young individuals at high familial risk

BACKGROUND Previous neuroimaging studies indicate abnormalities in cortico-limbic circuitry in mood disorder. Here we employ prospective longitudinal voxel-based morphometry to examine the trajectory of these abnormalities during early stages of illness development. METHOD Unaffected individuals (16-25 years) at high and low familial risk of mood disorder underwent structural brain imaging on two occasions 2 years apart. Further clinical assessment was conducted 2 years after the second scan (time 3). Clinical outcome data at time 3 was used to categorize individuals: (i) healthy controls ('low risk', n = 48); (ii) high-risk individuals who remained well (HR well, n = 53); and (iii) high-risk individuals who developed a major depressive disorder (HR MDD, n = 30). Groups were compared using longitudinal voxel-based morphometry. We also examined whether progress to illness was associated with changes in other potential risk markers (personality traits, symptoms scores and baseline measures of childhood trauma), and whether any changes in brain structure could be indexed using these measures. RESULTS Significant decreases in right amygdala grey matter were found in HR MDD v. controls (p = 0.001) and v. HR well (p = 0.005). This structural change was not related to measures of childhood trauma, symptom severity or measures of sub-diagnostic anxiety, neuroticism or extraversion, although cross-sectionally these measures significantly differentiated the groups at baseline. CONCLUSIONS These longitudinal findings implicate structural amygdala changes in the neurobiology of mood disorder. They also provide a potential biomarker for risk stratification capturing additional information beyond clinically ascertained measures.

Towards the social inclusion of youth: Tools for analysis and policy design

The integration of youth into development processes is crucial in order to advance towards more egalitarian societies. Over the past few years, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) has regarded equality as the horizon for development, structural change as the way to achieve it, and policy as the instrument to reach that horizon. Equality is viewed as going beyond the distribution of means, such as monetary income, to include equal opportunities and capacities. This implies understanding equality as the full exercise of citizenship, with dignity and the reciprocal recognition of actors. Progress in this direction requires policies that promote the autonomy of subjects and pay attention to their vulnerabilities.

Proposal on debt for climate adaptation swaps: a strategy for growth and economic transformation of Caribbean economies

ECLAC advocates that the Caribbean’s high debt dilemma was not principally driven by policy missteps, or the international financial crisis. Rather, it finds its roots in external shocks, compounded by the inherent structural weaknesses and vulnerabilities confronting Caribbean SIDS and their limited capacity to respond. A major factor has been the underperformance of the export sector, partly due to a decline in competitiveness and a slowdown in economic activity especially among the tourism-dependent economies. Caribbean countries have also accumulated debt as a consequence of increased expenditures to address the impact of extreme events and climate change attendant difficulties. Most Caribbean countries are located in the hurricane belt and are also prone to earthquakes and other hazards. Indeed, a disaster resulting in damage and losses in excess of 5 per cent of GDP can be expected to hit any Caribbean country every few years. Moreover, over the period 2000-2014, it is estimated that the economic cost of natural disasters in Caribbean countries was in excess of US$30.7 billion. The English Speaking Caribbean countries are extremely vulnerable to natural disasters.

Innovation and internationalization of Latin American services

Innovation and internationalization in services are key drivers of structural transformation, productivity growth and overall economic performance in Latin America. The services sector accounts for two thirds of the region’s GDP and provides over 60% of its employment. These shares are higher than in other developing regions, but still lower than in countries with higher levels of per capita income. The spread of information and communication technologies in Latin America over the past three decades has vastly enhanced both the tradability of services and the sector’s propensity to innovate. Long considered unrelated processes, both internationalization and innovation are today widely recognized as key and complementary sources of firm-level competitiveness and human capital enhancement. The advent of many novel types of business and consumer services is furthermore a key factor in the rising insertion of Latin American firms in regional and global value chains and transnational production networks, which are now the predominant form of organization of international production and trade. This volume explores three different levels of interaction between internationalization and innovation in the services sector in Latin America. Part I analyses the role of services in manufacturing and other sectors’ global value chains from a theoretical perspective, drawing on the experiences of Brazil and Mexico. Part II reviews innovation and internationalization policies and their effects on the performance of the services sector. Part III presents a series of case studies on innovation and internationalization linkages in Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica and Mexico. The book concludes that, in order for Latin American countries and firms to upgrade into services value chains, public and private initiatives must generate a host of regional public goods —enhanced investment climates, supply of skills, greater access to finance, improved protection of intellectual property, better value appropriation, enhanced efforts at standardization and quality certification— to strengthen the links between innovation and internationalization.

Adaptive economic growth

This paper develops an evolutionary theory of adaptive growth, understood as a product of structural change and economic self-transformation, based upon processes that are closely connected with but not reducible to the growth of knowledge. The dominant connecting theme is enterprise, the innovative variations it generates and the multiple connections between investment, innovation, demand and structural transformation in the market process. The paper explores the dependence of macroeconomic productivity growth on the diversity of technical progress functions and income elasticities of demand at the industry level, and the resolution of this diversity into patterns of economic change through market processes. It is shown how industry growth rates are constrained by higher-order processes of emergence that convert an ensemble of industry growth rates into an aggregate rate of growth. The growth of productivity, output and employment are determined mutually and endogenously, and their values depend on the variation in the primary causal influences in the system.

Economic performance in European telecommunications, 1978-1998:a comparative study

The European telecommunications sector is undergoing major structural change in the face of new technology, privatisation and European Commission directives requiring market liberalisation. This study considers the comparative performance of the major European telecommunications operators between 1978 and 1998. This period encompasses an era of state monopolies, market liberalisation initiatives and a number of privatisations. The objectives are to assess: the extent so far to which market liberalisation and privatisation have impacted on the efficiency with which telecommunications services are provided in Europe; and changes in the performance of the different telecommunications operators over time with a view to providing an insight into the comparative efficiency performance of the different telecommunications operators in Europe. Performance is measured in terms of profit margins and labour and total factor productivity.

Employment outcomes and plant closure in a post-industrial city:an analysis of the labour market studies of MG Rover workers three years on

This paper examines how the loss of 6300 jobs from the closure of MG Rover (MGR) in the city of Birmingham (UK) in April 2005 affected the employment trajectories of ex-workers, in the context of wider structural change and efforts at urban renewal. The paper presents an analysis of a longitudinal survey of 300 ex-MGR workers, and examines to what extent the state of local labour markets and workers’ geographical mobility—as well as the effectiveness of the immediate policy response and longer-term local economic strategies—may have helped to balance the impacts of personal attributes associated with workers’ employability and their reabsorption into the labour markets. It is found that the relative buoyancy of the local economy, the success of longer-run efforts at diversification and a strong policy response and retraining initiative helped many disadvantaged workers to find new jobs in the medium term. However, the paper also highlights the unequal employment outcomes and trajectories that many lesser-skilled workers faced. It explores the policy issues arising from such closures and their aftermath, such as the need to co-ordinate responses, to retain institutional capacity, to offer high-quality training and education resources to workers and, where possible, to slow down such closure processes to enable skills to be retained and reused within the local economy.

Policy issues in rural areas:an examination with special reference to Cumbria

This thesis develops the requirements of the Cumbria Division of the MAFF to have detailed information on a number of rural topics of particular concern to the area's socia-economic advisory service. Information was generated upon the effects of road developments upon agriculture; the possibility of economic and employment growth through tourism, industry, forestry and agriculture; and upon their relationship with conservation and development control issues generally. A working conference was organised (The Whitbarrow Exercise) to review in specific terms a number of the above problems, in which representatives of the major groups active in rural policy formulation and implementation participated. The study was extended to consider these policy issues on a more prosperous agricultural estate; and in the county of Cumbria as a whole. An examination of the development and likely future impact of agricultural policy upon rural policy generally was also undertaken. All the research was set in the context of an extensive literature review. The results indicate that while state intervention to relieve those problems collectively known as rural deprivation still has an important place in modern rural policy, the scope for such intervention to be successful is limited. Opportunities for employment and wealth creation through tourism, forestry, industry and agriculture are limited for social and economic reasons; developments in these sectors can have adverse effects upon the environment; can compound existing problems; and are often resisted by local people. The lack of success of such ventures indicates continued structural change within rural communities, with some adverse effects for the less privileged members. Recognising this it is argued that fural policy seeks to adapt to, rather than attempt to fundamentally alter inevitable change, recognising that in the long term social and structural problems will resolve themselves. It is further argued that a reduction in state support for agriculture appears inevitable, and this can bring considerable conservation benefits, even in upland areas where positive links between agriculture and conservation have been found by some commentators. It is also argued that for social and economic reasons, and because of the declining importance of agricultural land, a vigorous landscape and ecological conservation policy is pursued by planning authorities and is reasonable. With regard to road developments on agricultural land, the research has shawn that although it is the norm far the agricultural community to experience severe difficulty during developments, these can be overcame by increasing the resources of professional expertise available to affected farmers. This indicates a possible important increased role for the MAFF in the development process.

Knowledge, capabilities and manufacturing innovation: a US-Europe comparison

In this paper we report a comparative analysis of the factors which contribute to the innovation performance of manufacturing firms in the US state of Georgia, and three European regions, the UK regions of Wales and the West Midlands, and the Spanish region of Catalonia. We consider the factors which shape firms’ ability to generate new products and processes and undertake various forms of organisational and structural change. We are particularly concerned with how firms collect the knowledge on which they base their innovation and their effectiveness in translating that knowledge into new innovations. Three main empirical conclusions result. First, US firms have more widespread links to external knowledge sources than those in Europe and notably the universities make a greater contribution to innovation in the US than in Europe. Second, UK firms prove more effective at capturing synergies between their innovation activities than US and Catalan firms. Third, firms’ operating environment proves more conducive to innovation in the US than in either the UK regions or Catalonia. Our results suggest the potential for mutual learning. For the UK there are lessons in terms of the way in which the universities in Georgia are supporting innovation. For firms in Georgia and in Catalonia the potential lessons are more strategic or organisational and relate to how they can better capture potential synergies between their innovation activities.

Comparing regional organizations in global multilateral institutions:ASEAN, the EU and the UN

Structural change brought about by the end of the Cold War and accelerated globalisation have transformed the global environment. A global governance complex is emerging, characterised by an ever-greater functional and regulatory role for multilateral organisations such as the United Nations (UN) and its associated agencies. The evolving global governance framework has created opportunities for regional organisations to participate as actors within the UN (and other multilateral institutions). This article compares the European Union (EU) and Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) as actors within the UN network. It begins by extrapolating framework conditions for the emergence of EU and ASEAN actorness from the literature. The core argument of this article is that EU and ASEAN actorness is evolving in two succinct stages: Changes in the global environment create opportunities for the participation of regional organisations in global governance institutions, exposing representation and cohesion problems at the regional level. In response, ASEAN and the EU have initiated processes of institutional adaptation.

Relationships between fundus image quantification and visual field status in age-related macular degeneration

Presentation Purpose:To relate structural change to functional change in age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in a cross-sectional population using fundus imaging and the visual field status. Methods:10 degree standard and SWAP visual fields and other standard functional clinical measures were acquired in 44 eyes of 27 patients at various stages of AMD, as well as fundus photographs. Retro-mode SLO images were captured in a subset of 29 eyes of 19 of the patients. Drusen area, measured by automated drusen segmentation software (Smith et al. 2005) was correlated with visual field data. Visual field defect position was compared to the position of the imaged drusen and deposits using custom software. Results:The effect of AMD stage on drusen area within the 6000µm was significant (One-way ANOVA: F = 17.231, p < 0.001), however the trend was not strong across all stages. There were significant linear relationships between visual field parameters and drusen area. The mean deviation (MD) declined by 3.00dB and 3.92dB for each log % drusen area for standard perimetry and SWAP, respectively. The visual field parameters of focal loss displayed the strongest correlations with drusen area. The number of pattern deviation (PD) defects increased by 9.30 and 9.68 defects per log % drusen area for standard perimetry and SWAP, respectively. Weaker correlations were found between drusen area and visual acuity, contrast sensitivity, colour vision and reading speed. 72.6% of standard PD defects and 65.2% of SWAP PD defects coincided with retinal signs of AMD on fundus photography. 67.5% of standard PD defects and 69.7% of SWAP PD defects coincided with deposits on retro-mode images. Conclusions:Perimetry exhibited a stronger relationship with drusen area than other measures of visual function. The structure-function relationship between visual field parameters and drusen area was linear. Overall the indices of focal loss had a stronger correlation with drusen area in SWAP than in standard perimetry. Visual field defects had a high coincidence proportion with retinal manifestations of AMD.Smith R.T. et al. (2005) Arch Ophthalmol 123:200-206.