Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities Part 1: model construction and validation

Heat waves are expected to increase in frequency and magnitude with climate change. The first part of a study to produce projections of the effect of future climate change on heat-related mortality is presented. Separate city-specific empirical statistical models that quantify significant relationships between summer daily maximum temperature (T max) and daily heat-related deaths are constructed from historical data for six cities: Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London, and Sydney. ‘Threshold temperatures’ above which heat-related deaths begin to occur are identified. The results demonstrate significantly lower thresholds in ‘cooler’ cities exhibiting lower mean summer temperatures than in ‘warmer’ cities exhibiting higher mean summer temperatures. Analysis of individual ‘heat waves’ illustrates that a greater proportion of mortality is due to mortality displacement in cities with less sensitive temperature–mortality relationships than in those with more sensitive relationships, and that mortality displacement is no longer a feature more than 12 days after the end of the heat wave. Validation techniques through residual and correlation analyses of modelled and observed values and comparisons with other studies indicate that the observed temperature–mortality relationships are represented well by each of the models. The models can therefore be used with confidence to examine future heat-related deaths under various climate change scenarios for the respective cities (presented in Part 2).

Interaction of heat-moisture conditions and physical properties in oat processing: II. Flake quality

Product quality is an important determinant of consumer acceptance. Consistent oat flake properties are thus necessary in the mill as well as in the marketplace. The effects of kilning and tempering conditions (30, 60 or 90 min at 80, 95 or 110 degrees C) on flake peroxidase activity, size, thickness, strength and water absorption were therefore determined. After kilning, some peroxidase activity remained but steaming and tempering effectively destroyed the activity of these enzymes. Thus the supposed protective effect of kilning or groat durability was not confirmed. Kilning resulted in an increase in flake specific weight, but no other significant effect on flake quality was observed. Tempering time and temperature interacted significantly to produce complex effects on flake specific weight, thickness and water absorption. Flake thickness and specific weight were significantly correlated (r = 0.808, n = 54). Longer tempering times resulted in an increased fines' fraction, from 1.45% at 30 min to 1.75% at 90 min. It is concluded that whilst kilning has little effect on flake quality, the heat treatment immediately prior to flaking, can be used to adjust flake quality independently of flake thickness.

The role of atmosphere feedbacks during ENSO in the CMIP3 models. Part II: using AMIP runs to understand the heat flux feedback mechanisms

Several studies using ocean–atmosphere general circulation models (GCMs) suggest that the atmospheric component plays a dominant role in the modelled El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). To help elucidate these findings, the two main atmosphere feedbacks relevant to ENSO, the Bjerknes positive feedback (μ) and the heat flux negative feedback (α), are here analysed in nine AMIP runs of the CMIP3 multimodel dataset. We find that these models generally have improved feedbacks compared to the coupled runs which were analysed in part I of this study. The Bjerknes feedback, μ, is increased in most AMIP runs compared to the coupled run counterparts, and exhibits both positive and negative biases with respect to ERA40. As in the coupled runs, the shortwave and latent heat flux feedbacks are the two dominant components of α in the AMIP runs. We investigate the mechanisms behind these two important feedbacks, in particular focusing on the strong 1997–1998 El Niño. Biases in the shortwave flux feedback, α SW, are the main source of model uncertainty in α. Most models do not successfully represent the negative αSW in the East Pacific, primarily due to an overly strong low-cloud positive feedback in the far eastern Pacific. Biases in the cloud response to dynamical changes dominate the modelled α SW biases, though errors in the large-scale circulation response to sea surface temperature (SST) forcing also play a role. Analysis of the cloud radiative forcing in the East Pacific reveals model biases in low cloud amount and optical thickness which may affect α SW. We further show that the negative latent heat flux feedback, α LH, exhibits less diversity than α SW and is primarily driven by variations in the near-surface specific humidity difference. However, biases in both the near-surface wind speed and humidity response to SST forcing can explain the inter-model αLH differences.

Upper-ocean heat budget and ocean eddy transport in the south-east Pacific in a high-resolution coupled model

We present an analysis of the oceanic heat advection and its variability in the upper 500 m in the southeastern tropical Pacific (100W–75W, 25S–10S) as simulated by the global coupled model HiGEM, which has one of the highest resolutions currently used in long-term integrations. The simulated climatology represents a temperature advection field arising from transient small-scale (<450 km) features, with structures and transport that appear consistent with estimates based on available observational data for the mooring at 20S, 85W. The transient structures are very persistent (>4 months), and in specific locations they generate an important contribution to the local upper-ocean heat budget, characterised by scales of a few hundred kilometres, and periods of over a year. The contribution from such structures to the local, long-term oceanic heat budget however can be of either sign, or vanishing, depending on the location; and, although there appears some organisation in preferential areas of activity, the average over the entire region is small. While several different mechanisms may be responsible for the temperature advection by transients, we find that a significant, and possibly dominant, component is associated with vortices embedded in the large-scale, climatological salinity gradient associated with the fresh intrusion of mid-latitude intermediate water which penetrates north-westward beneath the tropical thermocline

Impact of anthropogenic heat emissions on London's temperatures

We investigate the role of the anthropogenic heat flux on the urban heat island of London. To do this, the time-varying anthropogenic heat flux is added to an urban surface-energy balance parametrization, the Met Office–Reading Urban Surface Exchange Scheme (MORUSES), implemented in a 1 km resolution version of the UK Met Office Unified Model. The anthropogenic heat flux is derived from energy-demand data for London and is specified on the model's 1 km grid; it includes variations on diurnal and seasonal time-scales. We contrast a spring case with a winter case, to illustrate the effects of the larger anthropogenic heat flux in winter and the different roles played by thermodynamics in the different seasons. The surface-energy balance channels the anthropogenic heat into heating the urban surface, which warms slowly because of the large heat capacity of the urban surface. About one third of this additional warming goes into increasing the outgoing long-wave radiation and only about two thirds goes into increasing the sensible heat flux that warms the atmosphere. The anthropogenic heat flux has a larger effect on screen-level temperatures in the winter case, partly because the anthropogenic flux is larger then and partly because the boundary layer is shallower in winter. For the specific winter case studied here, the anthropogenic heat flux maintains a well-mixed boundary layer through the whole night over London, whereas the surrounding rural boundary layer becomes strongly stably stratified. This finding is likely to have important implications for air quality in winter. On the whole, inclusion of the anthropogenic heat flux improves the comparison between model simulations and measurements of screen-level temperature slightly and indicates that the anthropogenic heat flux is beginning to be an important factor in the London urban heat island.

Heat and moisture budgets from airborne measurements and high-resolution model simulations

High-resolution simulations with a mesoscale model are performed to estimate heat and moisture budgets of a well-mixed boundary layer. The model budgets are validated against energy budgets obtained from airborne measurements over heterogeneous terrain in Western Germany. Time rate of change, vertical divergence, and horizontal advection for an atmospheric column of air are estimated. Results show that the time trend of specific humidity exhibits some deficiencies, while the potential temperature trend is matched accurately. Furthermore, the simulated turbulent surface fluxes of sensible and latent heat are comparable to the measured fluxes, leading to similar values of the vertical divergence. The analysis of different horizontal model resolutions exhibits improved surface fluxes with increased resolution, a fact attributed to a reduced aggregation effect. Scale-interaction effects could be identified: while time trends and advection are strongly influenced by mesoscale forcing, the turbulent surface fluxes are mainly controlled by microscale processes.

Global to city scale urban anthropogenic heat flux: model and variability

The large scale urban consumption of energy (LUCY) model simulates all components of anthropogenic heat flux (QF) from the global to individual city scale at 2.5 × 2.5 arc-minute resolution. This includes a database of different working patterns and public holidays, vehicle use and energy consumption in each country. The databases can be edited to include specific diurnal and seasonal vehicle and energy consumption patterns, local holidays and flows of people within a city. If better information about individual cities is available within this (open-source) database, then the accuracy of this model can only improve, to provide the community data from global-scale climate modelling or the individual city scale in the future. The results show that QF varied widely through the year, through the day, between countries and urban areas. An assessment of the heat emissions estimated revealed that they are reasonably close to those produced by a global model and a number of small-scale city models, so results from LUCY can be used with a degree of confidence. From LUCY, the global mean urban QF has a diurnal range of 0.7–3.6 W m−2, and is greater on weekdays than weekends. The heat release from building is the largest contributor (89–96%), to heat emissions globally. Differences between months are greatest in the middle of the day (up to 1 W m−2 at 1 pm). December to February, the coldest months in the Northern Hemisphere, have the highest heat emissions. July and August are at the higher end. The least QF is emitted in May. The highest individual grid cell heat fluxes in urban areas were located in New York (577), Paris (261.5), Tokyo (178), San Francisco (173.6), Vancouver (119) and London (106.7). Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society

A critical revision of the estimation of the latent heat flux from two-wavelength scintillometry

Simultaneous scintillometer measurements at multiple wavelengths (pairing visible or infrared with millimetre or radio waves) have the potential to provide estimates of path-averaged surface fluxes of sensible and latent heat. Traditionally, the equations to deduce fluxes from measurements of the refractive index structure parameter at the two wavelengths have been formulated in terms of absolute humidity. Here, it is shown that formulation in terms of specific humidity has several advantages. Specific humidity satisfies the requirement for a conserved variable in similarity theory and inherently accounts for density effects misapportioned through the use of absolute humidity. The validity and interpretation of both formulations are assessed and the analogy with open-path infrared gas analyser density corrections is discussed. Original derivations using absolute humidity to represent the influence of water vapour are shown to misrepresent the latent heat flux. The errors in the flux, which depend on the Bowen ratio (larger for drier conditions), may be of the order of 10%. The sensible heat flux is shown to remain unchanged. It is also verified that use of a single scintillometer at optical wavelengths is essentially unaffected by these new formulations. Where it may not be possible to reprocess two-wavelength results, a density correction to the latent heat flux is proposed for scintillometry, which can be applied retrospectively to reduce the error.

An assessment of the latent and sensible heat flux on the simulated regional climate over Southwestern South Atlantic Ocean

A Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) 10-year (1990-1999) simulation over southwestern South Atlantic Ocean (SAO) is evaluated to assess the mean climatology and the simulation errors of turbulent fluxes over the sea. Moreover, the relationship between these fluxes and the rainfall over some cyclogenetic areas is also analyzed. The RegCM3 results are validated using some reanalyses datasets (ERA40, R2, GPCP and WHOI). The summer and winter spatial patterns of latent and sensible heat fluxes simulated by the RegCM3 are in agreement with the reanalyses (WHOI, R2 and ERA40). They show large latent heat fluxes exchange in the subtropical SAO and at higher latitudes in the warm waters of Brazil Current. In particular, the magnitude of RegCM3 latent heat fluxes is similar to the WHOI, which is probably related to two factors: (a) small specific humidity bias, and (b) the RegCM3 flux algorithm. In contrast, the RegCM3 presents large overestimation of sensible heat flux, though it simulates well their spatial pattern. This simulation error is associated with the RegCM3 underestimation of the 2-m air temperature. In southwestern SAO, in three known cyclogenetic areas, the reanalyses and the RegCM3 show the existence of different physical mechanisms that control the annual cycles of latent/sensible heating and rainfall. It is shown that over the eastern coast of Uruguay (35A degrees-43A degrees S) and the southeastern coast of Argentina (44A degrees-52A degrees S) the sea-air moisture and heat exchange play an important role to control the annual cycle of precipitation. This does not happen on the south/southeastern coast of Brazil.

Anthropogenic heat in the city of So Paulo, Brazil

The main goal of this work is to describe the anthropogenic energy flux (Q (F)) in the city of So Paulo, Brazil. The hourly, monthly, and annual values of the anthropogenic energy flux are estimated using the inventory method, and the contributions of vehicular, stationary, and human metabolism sources from 2004 to 2007 are considered. The vehicular and stationary sources are evaluated using the primary consumption of energy based on fossil fuel, bio fuel, and electricity usage by the population. The diurnal evolution of the anthropogenic energy flux shows three relative maxima, with the largest maxima occurring early in the morning (similar to 19.9 Wm(-2)) and in the late afternoon (similar to 20.3 Wm(-2)). The relative maximum that occurs around noontime (similar to 19.6 Wm(-2)) reflects the diurnal pattern of vehicle traffic that seems to be specific to So Paulo. With respect to diurnal evolution, the energy flux released by vehicular sources (Q (FV)) contributes approximately 50% of the total anthropogenic energy flux. Stationary sources (Q (FS)) and human metabolism (Q (FM)) represent about 41% and 9% of the anthropogenic energy flux, respectively. For 2007, the monthly values of Q (FV), Q (FS), Q (FM), and Q (F) are, respectively, 16.8 +/- 0.25, 14.3 +/- 0.16, 3.5 +/- 0.03, and 34.6 +/- 0.41 MJ m(-2) month(-1). The seasonal evolution monthly values of Q (FV), Q (FS), Q (FM), and Q (F) show a relative minimum during the summer and winter vacations and a systematic and progressive increase associated with the seasonal evolution of the economic activity in So Paulo. The annual evolution of Q (F) indicates that the city of So Paulo released 355.2 MJ m(-2) year(-1) in 2004 and 415.5 MJ m(-2) year(-1) in 2007 in association with an annual rate of increase of 19.6 MJ m(-2) year(-1) (from 2004 to 2006) and 30.5 MJ m(-2) year(-1) (from 2006 to 2007). The anthropogenic energy flux corresponds to about 9% of the net radiation at the surface in the summer and 15% in the winter. The amplitude of seasonal variation of the maximum hourly value of the diurnal variation increases exponentially with latitude.

Distinctive Immunomodulatory and Inflammatory Properties of the Escherichia coli Type II Heat-Labile Enterotoxin LT-IIa and Its B Pentamer following Intradermal Administration

The type I and type II heat-labile enterotoxins (LT-I and LT-II) are strong mucosal adjuvants when they are coadministered with soluble antigens. Nonetheless, data on the parenteral adjuvant activities of LT-II are still limited. Particularly, no previous study has evaluated the adjuvant effects and induced inflammatory reactions of LT-II holotoxins or their B pentameric subunits after delivery via the intradermal (i.d.) route to mice. In the present report, the adjuvant and local skin inflammatory effects of LT-IIa and its B subunit pentamer (LT-IIaB(5)) were determined. When coadministered with ovalbumin (OVA), LT-IIa and, to a lesser extent, LT-IIaB(5) exhibited serum IgG adjuvant effects. In addition, LT-IIa but not LT-IIaB(5) induced T cell-specific anti-OVA responses, particularly in respect to induction of antigen-specific cytotoxic CD8(+) T cell responses. LT-IIa and LT-IIaB(5) induced differential tissue permeability and local inflammatory reactions after i.d. injection. Of particular interest was the reduced or complete lack of local reactions, such as edema and tissue induration, in mice i.d. inoculated with LT-IIa and LT-IIaB(5), respectively, compared with mice immunized with LT-I. In conclusion, the present results show that LT-IIa and, to a lesser extent, LT-IIaB(5) exert adjuvant effects when they are delivered via the i.d. route. In addition, the low inflammatory effects of LT-IIa and LT-IIaB(5) in comparison to those of LT-I support the usefulness of LT-IIa and LT-IIaB(5) as parenterally delivered vaccine adjuvants.

Functional and immunological characterization of a natural polymorphic variant of a heat-labile toxin (LT-I) produced by enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC)

Heat-labile toxins (LT) encompass at least 16 natural polymorphic toxin variants expressed by wild-type enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) strains isolated from human beings, but only one specific form, produced by the reference ETEC H10407 strain (LT1), has been intensively studied either as a virulence-associated factor or as a mucosal/transcutaneous adjuvant. In the present study, we carried out a biological/immunological characterization of a natural LT variant (LT2) with four polymorphic sites at the A subunit (S190L, G196D, K213E, and S224T) and one at the B subunit (T75A). The results indicated that purified LT2, in comparison with LT1, displayed similar in vitro toxic activities (adenosine 3`,5`-cyclic monophosphate accumulation) on mammalian cells and in vivo immunogenicity following delivery via the oral route. Nonetheless, the LT2 variant showed increased adjuvant action to ovalbumin when delivered to mice via the transcutaneous route while antibodies raised in mice immunized with LT2 displayed enhanced affinity and neutralization activity to LT1 and LT2. Taken together, the results indicate that the two most frequent LT polymorphic forms expressed by wild ETEC strains share similar biological features, but differ with regard to their immunological properties.

Energy efficient and economic renovation of residential buildings with low-temperature heating and air heat recovery

With the building sector accounting for around 40% of the total energy consumption in the EU, energy efficiency in buildings is and continues to be an important issue. Great progress has been made in reducing the energy consumption in new buildings, but the large stock of existing buildings with poor energy performance is probably an even more crucial area of focus. This thesis deals with energy efficiency measures that can be suitable for renovation of existing houses, particularly low-temperature heating systems and ventilation systems with heat recovery. The energy performance, environmental impact and costs are evaluated for a range of system combinations, for small and large houses with various heating demands and for different climates in Europe. The results were derived through simulation with energy calculation tools. Low-temperature heating and air heat recovery were both found to be promising with regard to increasing energy efficiency in European houses. These solutions proved particularly effective in Northern Europe as low-temperature heating and air heat recovery have a greater impact in cold climates and on houses with high heating demands. The performance of heat pumps, both with outdoor air and exhaust air, was seen to improve with low-temperature heating. The choice between an exhaust air heat pump and a ventilation system with heat recovery is likely to depend on case specific conditions, but both choices are more cost-effective and have a lower environmental impact than systems without heat recovery. The advantage of the heat pump is that it can be used all year round, given that it produces DHW. Economic and environmental aspects of energy efficiency measures do not always harmonize. On the one hand, lower costs can sometimes mean larger environmental impact; on the other hand there can be divergence between different environmental aspects. This makes it difficult to define financial subsidies to promote energy efficiency measures.

Latent heat loss of dairy cows in an equatorial semi-arid environment

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Effect of acute heat stress on heat shock protein 70 messenger RNA and on heat shock protein expression in the liver of broilers

1. The synthesis of heat shock protein 70 (Hsp70) mRNA and the expression of Hsp70 in the liver of broiler chickens submitted to acute heat stress (35 degrees C for 5 h) was investigated.2. Hsp70 expression was detected by SDS-PAGE and Western blot analysis using a polyclonal antiserum against Hsp70 of Blastocladiella emersonii. The specific signal of Hsp70 mRNA was analysed by Northern blot using as probe a Hsp70 cDNA of B. emersonii.3. An increase in the amount of Hsp70 was detected from the first up to the fifth hour of acute heat exposure. This increase in the amount of Hsp70 was accompanied by an increase in Hsp70 mRNA which peaked at 3 h.4. This study shows that the heat induced increase in Hsp70 mRNA and protein in broiler liver, in vivo, are time dependent, similar to that in mammals.