Deforestation, leakage and avoided deforestation policies: a spatial analysis

This paper analyses the impact of several avoided deforestation policies within a patchy forested landscape. Central is the idea that deforestation choices in one area influence deforestation decisions in nearby patches. We explore the interplay between forest landscapes comprising heterogeneous patches, localised spatial displacement, and avoided deforestation policies. Avoided deforestation policies at a landscape level are respectively: two Payments for Environmental Services (PES) policies, one focused on deforestation hotspots, the second being equally available to all agents; a conservation area; and, an agglomeration bonus. We demonstrate how the "best" policy, in terms of reduced leakage, depends on landscape heterogeneity. Agglomeration bonuses are shown to be more effective where there is less landscape heterogeneity, whilst conservation areas are most effective where there is more spatial heterogeneity.

Distribution of lipids in the grain of wheat (cv Hereward) determined by lipidomic analysis of milling and pearling fractions

Lipidomic analyses of milling and pearling fractions from wheat grain were carried out to determine differences in composition which could relate to the spatial distribution of lipids in the grain. Free fatty acids and triacylglycerols were major components in all fractions, but the relative contents of polar lipids varied, particularly lysophosphatidyl choline and digalactosyldiglyceride, which were enriched in flour fractions. By contrast, minor phospholipids were enriched in bran and offal fractions. The most abundant fatty acids in the analysed acyl lipids were C16:0 and C18:2 and their combinations, including C36:4 and C34:2. Phospholipids and galactolipids have been reported to have beneficial properties for bread making, while free fatty acids and triacylglycerols are considered detrimental. The subtle differences in the compositions of fractions determined in the present study could therefore underpin the production of flour fractions with optimised compositions for different end uses.

Improvement and sensitivity analysis of thermal thin-ice thickness retrievals

Considering the sea ice decline in the Arctic during the last decades, polynyas are of high research interest since these features are core areas of new ice formation. The determination of ice formation requires accurate retrieval of polynya area and thin-ice thickness (TIT) distribution within the polynya.We use an established energy balance model to derive TITs with MODIS ice surface temperatures (Ts) and NCEP/DOE Reanalysis II in the Laptev Sea for two winter seasons. Improvements of the algorithm mainly concern the implementation of an iterative approach to calculate the atmospheric flux components taking the atmospheric stratification into account. Furthermore, a sensitivity study is performed to analyze the errors of the ice thickness. The results are the following: 1) 2-m air temperatures (Ta) and Ts have the highest impact on the retrieved ice thickness; 2) an overestimation of Ta yields smaller ice thickness errors as an underestimation of Ta; 3) NCEP Ta shows often a warm bias; and 4) the mean absolute error for ice thicknesses up to 20 cm is ±4.7 cm. Based on these results, we conclude that, despite the shortcomings of the NCEP data (coarse spatial resolution and no polynyas), this data set is appropriate in combination with MODIS Ts for the retrieval of TITs up to 20 cm in the Laptev Sea region. The TIT algorithm can be applied to other polynya regions and to past and future time periods. Our TIT product is a valuable data set for verification of other model and remote sensing ice thickness data.

Bayesian analysis of uncertainty in the GlobCover 2009 land cover product at climate model grid scale

Land cover data derived from satellites are commonly used to prescribe inputs to models of the land surface. Since such data inevitably contains errors, quantifying how uncertainties in the data affect a model’s output is important. To do so, a spatial distribution of possible land cover values is required to propagate through the model’s simulation. However, at large scales, such as those required for climate models, such spatial modelling can be difficult. Also, computer models often require land cover proportions at sites larger than the original map scale as inputs, and it is the uncertainty in these proportions that this article discusses. This paper describes a Monte Carlo sampling scheme that generates realisations of land cover proportions from the posterior distribution as implied by a Bayesian analysis that combines spatial information in the land cover map and its associated confusion matrix. The technique is computationally simple and has been applied previously to the Land Cover Map 2000 for the region of England and Wales. This article demonstrates the ability of the technique to scale up to large (global) satellite derived land cover maps and reports its application to the GlobCover 2009 data product. The results show that, in general, the GlobCover data possesses only small biases, with the largest belonging to non–vegetated surfaces. In vegetated surfaces, the most prominent area of uncertainty is Southern Africa, which represents a complex heterogeneous landscape. It is also clear from this study that greater resources need to be devoted to the construction of comprehensive confusion matrices.

Multivariate analysis of the energy cycle of the South American rainy season

The South American (SA) rainy season is studied in this paper through the application of a multivariate Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis to a SA gridded precipitation analysis and to the components of Lorenz Energy Cycle (LEC) derived from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis. The EOF analysis leads to the identification of patterns of the rainy season and the associated mechanisms in terms of their energetics. The first combined EOF represents the northwest-southeast dipole of the precipitation between South and Central America, the South American Monsoon System (SAMS). The second combined EOF represents a synoptic pattern associated with the SACZ (South Atlantic convergence zone) and the third EOF is in spatial quadrature to the second EOF. The phase relationship of the EOFs, as computed from the principal components (PCs), suggests a nonlinear transition from the SACZ to the fully developed SAMS mode by November and between both components describing the SACZ by September-October (the rainy season onset). According to the LEC, the first mode is dominated by the eddy generation term at its maximum, the second by both baroclinic and eddy generation terms and the third by barotropic instability previous to the connection to the second mode by September-October. The predominance of the different LEC components at each phase of the SAMS can be used as an indicator of the onset of the rainy season in terms of physical processes, while the existence of the outstanding spectral peaks in the time dependence of the EOFs at the intraseasonal time scale could be used for monitoring purposes. Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

A new species of Lauromacromia (Odonata: Corduliidae) from Southeastern Brazil, with a cladistic analysis of the genus and comments on Neotropical dragonfly biogeography

Lauromacromia melanica sp. nov. from Conceicao da Barra municipality, Espirito Santo State, Brazil, is described and illustrated based on two males (both in MNRJ n degrees 135). The new species is similar to L. picinguaba differing from it mainly by the absence of pale spots on S3-6 and by the ellipsoid shape of metepisternal pale stripe. A key for males of all species of the genus is provided. A cladistic analysis encompassing 43 external morphological male characters carried out in two distinct procedures, the first with all characters unordered and the second with two or three state characters ordered. The unordered analysis generated only one most-parsimonious tree (66 steps of length, CI = 0.69, RI = 0.62). The hypothesis of monophyly of Lauromacromia is supported and includes three groups, one formed by the Atlantic Forest species (L. melanica sp. nov. + L. picinguaba), and another by the Cerrado species (L. flaviae + (L. bedei + L. luismoojeni)), and L. dubitalis, positioned in polytomy with these two groups. The ordered analysis also generated only one most-parsimonious tree (68 steps of length, CI = 0.70, RI = 0.67), which maintained the monophyly of Lauromacromia but L. dubitalis positioned basally as sister-group to the Atlantic Forest + Cerrado species groups. The geographic distribution of Lauromacromia is updated with a new record of L. luismoojeni based on one adult male (Brazil: Mato Grosso do Sul State) and probable first Brazilian records for L. dubitalis (Amazonas and Para States) based on two larvae. A vicariance hypothesis is proposed to explain spatial evolution of Lauromacromia, and based on current biogeographical classifications we consider Gomphomacromia and Rialla apart from Neotropical biota. Some aspects of biology and ecology of Lauromacromia are also discussed.

A psychophysical and computational analysis of the spatio-temporal mechanisms underlying the flash-lag effect

Several accounts put forth to explain the flash-lag effect (FLE) rely mainly on either spatial or temporal mechanisms. Here we investigated the relationship between these mechanisms by psychophysical and theoretical approaches. In a first experiment we assessed the magnitudes of the FLE and temporal-order judgments performed under identical visual stimulation. The results were interpreted by means of simulations of an artificial neural network, that wits also employed to make predictions concerning the F LE. The model predicted that a spatio-temporal mislocalisation would emerge from two, continuous and abrupt-onset, moving stimuli. Additionally, a straightforward prediction of the model revealed that the magnitude of this mislocalisation should be task-dependent, increasing when the use of the abrupt-onset moving stimulus switches from a temporal marker only to both temporal and spatial markers. Our findings confirmed the model`s predictions and point to an indissoluble interplay between spatial facilitation and processing delays in the FLE.

Multiscale Analysis of Topographic Surface Roughness in the Midland Valley, Scotland

Surface roughness is an important geomorphological variable which has been used in the Earth and planetary sciences to infer material properties, current/past processes, and the time elapsed since formation. No single definition exists; however, within the context of geomorphometry, we use surface roughness as an expression of the variability of a topographic surface at a given scale, where the scale of analysis is determined by the size of the landforms or geomorphic features of interest. Six techniques for the calculation of surface roughness were selected for an assessment of the parameter`s behavior at different spatial scales and data-set resolutions. Area ratio operated independently of scale, providing consistent results across spatial resolutions. Vector dispersion produced results with increasing roughness and homogenization of terrain at coarser resolutions and larger window sizes. Standard deviation of residual topography highlighted local features and did not detect regional relief. Standard deviation of elevation correctly identified breaks of slope and was good at detecting regional relief. Standard deviation of slope (SD(slope)) also correctly identified smooth sloping areas and breaks of slope, providing the best results for geomorphological analysis. Standard deviation of profile curvature identified the breaks of slope, although not as strongly as SD(slope), and it is sensitive to noise and spurious data. In general, SD(slope) offered good performance at a variety of scales, while the simplicity of calculation is perhaps its single greatest benefit.

Dynamic Changes in the Mental Rotation Network Revealed by Pattern Recognition Analysis of fMRI Data

We investigated the temporal dynamics and changes in connectivity in the mental rotation network through the application of spatio-temporal support vector machines (SVMs). The spatio-temporal SVM [Mourao-Miranda, J., Friston, K. J., et al. (2007). Dynamic discrimination analysis: A spatial-temporal SVM. Neuroimage, 36, 88-99] is a pattern recognition approach that is suitable for investigating dynamic changes in the brain network during a complex mental task. It does not require a model describing each component of the task and the precise shape of the BOLD impulse response. By defining a time window including a cognitive event, one can use spatio-temporal fMRI observations from two cognitive states to train the SVM. During the training, the SVM finds the discriminating pattern between the two states and produces a discriminating weight vector encompassing both voxels and time (i.e., spatio-temporal maps). We showed that by applying spatio-temporal SVM to an event-related mental rotation experiment, it is possible to discriminate between different degrees of angular disparity (0 degrees vs. 20 degrees, 0 degrees vs. 60 degrees, and 0 degrees vs. 100 degrees), and the discrimination accuracy is correlated with the difference in angular disparity between the conditions. For the comparison with highest accuracy (08 vs. 1008), we evaluated how the most discriminating areas (visual regions, parietal regions, supplementary, and premotor areas) change their behavior over time. The frontal premotor regions became highly discriminating earlier than the superior parietal cortex. There seems to be a parcellation of the parietal regions with an earlier discrimination of the inferior parietal lobe in the mental rotation in relation to the superior parietal. The SVM also identified a network of regions that had a decrease in BOLD responses during the 100 degrees condition in relation to the 0 degrees condition (posterior cingulate, frontal, and superior temporal gyrus). This network was also highly discriminating between the two conditions. In addition, we investigated changes in functional connectivity between the most discriminating areas identified by the spatio-temporal SVM. We observed an increase in functional connectivity between almost all areas activated during the 100 degrees condition (bilateral inferior and superior parietal lobe, bilateral premotor area, and SMA) but not between the areas that showed a decrease in BOLD response during the 100 degrees condition.

An Experimental Study of Submerged Entry Nozzles (SEN) Focusing on Decarburization and Clogging

The submerged entry nozzle (SEN) is used to transport the molten steel from a tundish to a mould. The main purpose of its usage is to prevent oxygen and nitrogen pick-up by molten steel from the gas. Furthermore, to achieve the desired flow conditions in the mould. Therefore, the SEN can be considered as a vital factor for a stable casting process and the steel quality. In addition, the steelmaking processes occur at high temperatures around 1873 K, so the interaction between the refractory materials of the SEN and molten steel is unavoidable. Therefore, the knowledge of the SEN behaviors during preheating and casting processes is necessary for the design of the steelmaking processes  The internal surfaces of modern SENs are coated with a glass/silicon powder layer to prevent the SEN graphite oxidation during preheating. The effects of the interaction between the coating layer and the SEN base refractory materials on clogging were studied. A large number of accretion samples formed inside alumina-graphite clogged SENs were examined using FEG-SEM-EDS and Feature analysis. The internal coated SENs were used for continuous casting of stainless steel grades alloyed with Rare Earth Metals (REM). The post-mortem study results clearly revealed the formation of a multi-layer accretion. A harmful effect of the SENs decarburization on the accretion thickness was also indicated. In addition, the results indicated a penetration of the formed alkaline-rich glaze into the alumina-graphite base refractory. More specifically, the alkaline-rich glaze reacts with graphite to form a carbon monoxide gas. Thereafter, dissociation of CO at the interface between SEN and molten metal takes place. This leads to reoxidation of dissolved alloying elements such as REM (Rare Earth Metal). This reoxidation forms the “In Situ” REM oxides at the interface between the SEN and the REM alloyed molten steel. Also, the interaction of the penetrated glaze with alumina in the SEN base refractory materials leads to the formation of a high-viscous alumina-rich glaze during the SEN preheating process. This, in turn, creates a very uneven surface at the SEN internal surface. Furthermore, these uneven areas react with dissolved REM in molten steel to form REM aluminates, REM silicates and REM alumina-silicates. The formation of the large “in-situ” REM oxides and the reaction of the REM alloying elements with the previously mentioned SEN´s uneven areas may provide a large REM-rich surface in contact with the primary inclusions in molten steel. This may facilitate the attraction and agglomeration of the primary REM oxide inclusions on the SEN internal surface and thereafter the clogging. The study revealed the disadvantages of the glass/silicon powder coating applications and the SEN decarburization. The decarburization behaviors of Al2O3-C, ZrO2-C and MgO-C refractory materials from a commercial Submerged Entry Nozzle (SEN), were also investigated for different gas atmospheres consisting of CO2, O2 and Ar. The gas ratio values were kept the same as it is in a propane combustion flue gas at different Air-Fuel-Ratio (AFR) values for both Air-Fuel and Oxygen-Fuel combustion systems. Laboratory experiments were carried out under nonisothermal conditions followed by isothermal heating. The decarburization ratio (α) values of all three refractory types were determined by measuring the real time weight losses of the samples. The results showed the higher decarburization ratio (α) values increasing for MgO-C refractory when changing the Air-Fuel combustion to Oxygen-Fuel combustion at the same AFR value. It substantiates the SEN preheating advantage at higher temperatures for shorter holding times compared to heating at lower temperatures during longer holding times for Al2O3-C samples. Diffusion models were proposed for estimation of the decarburization rate of an Al2O3-C refractory in the SEN. Two different methods were studied to prevent the SEN decarburization during preheating: The effect of an ZrSi2 antioxidant and the coexistence of an antioxidant additive and a (4B2O3 ·BaO) glass powder on carbon oxidation for non-isothermal and isothermal heating conditions in a controlled atmosphere. The coexistence of 8 wt% ZrSi2 and 15 wt% (4B2O3 ·BaO) glass powder of the total alumina-graphite refractory base materials, presented the most effective resistance to carbon oxidation. The 121% volume expansion due to the Zircon formation during heating and filling up the open pores by a (4B2O3 ·BaO) glaze during the green body sintering led to an excellent carbon oxidation resistance. The effects of the plasma spray-PVD coating of the Yttria Stabilized Zirconia (YSZ) powder on the carbon oxidation of the Al2O3-C coated samples were investigated. Trials were performed at non-isothermal heating conditions in a controlled atmosphere. Also, the applied temperature profile for the laboratory trials were defined based on the industrial preheating trials. The controlled atmospheres consisted of CO2, O2 and Ar. The thicknesses of the decarburized layers were measured and examined using light optic microscopy, FEG-SEM and EDS. A 250-290 μm YSZ coating is suggested to be an appropriate coating, as it provides both an even surface as well as prevention of the decarburization even during heating in air. In addition, the interactions between the YSZ coated alumina-graphite refractory base materials in contact with a cerium alloyed molten stainless steel were surveyed. The YSZ coating provided a total prevention of the alumina reduction by cerium. Therefore, the prevention of the first clogging product formed on the surface of the SEN refractory base materials. Therefore, the YSZ plasma-PVD coating can be recommended for coating of the hot surface of the commercial SENs.

Analysis Of Semi-Distributed And Global Hydrological Models In The Central Tropical Basins Of The Gulf Of Mexico To The Effects Of Extreme Hydrometeorological Phenomena

In the last years extreme hydrometeorological phenomena have increased in number and intensity affecting the inhabitants of various regions, an example of these effects are the central basins of the Gulf of Mexico (CBGM) that they have been affected by 55.2% with floods and especially the state of Veracruz (1999-2013), leaving economic, social and environmental losses. Mexico currently lacks sufficient hydrological studies for the measurement of volumes in rivers, since is convenient to create a hydrological model (HM) suited to the quality and quantity of the geographic and climatic information that is reliable and affordable. Therefore this research compares the semi-distributed hydrological model (SHM) and the global hydrological model (GHM), with respect to the volumes of runoff and achieve to predict flood areas, furthermore, were analyzed extreme hydrometeorological phenomena in the CBGM, by modeling the Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) which is a SHM and the Modèle Hydrologique Simplifié à I'Extrême (MOHYSE) which is a GHM, to evaluate the results and compare which model is suitable for tropical conditions to propose public policies for integrated basins management and flood prevention. Thus it was determined the temporal and spatial framework of the analyzed basins according to hurricanes and floods. It were developed the SHM and GHM models, which were calibrated, validated and compared the results to identify the sensitivity to the real model. It was concluded that both models conform to tropical conditions of the CBGM, having MOHYSE further approximation to the real model. Worth mentioning that in Mexico there is not enough information, besides there are no records of MOHYSE use in Mexico, so it can be a useful tool for determining runoff volumes. Finally, with the SHM and the GHM were generated climate change scenarios to develop risk studies creating a risk map for urban planning, agro-hydrological and territorial organization.

Do brazilian states engage in the fiscal war of ports? An empiric study of tax competition and an analysis of a natural experiment: the brazilian senate resolution 13/2012

O fim do ano de 2014 marcou o segundo aniversário da Resolução 13/2012 (R13) do Senado brasileiro. Grosso modo, R13 constituiu-se de um normativo do Senado cujo objetivo era o de por um fim na Guerra Fiscal dos Portos (FWP), uma competição fiscal entre os estados que se dá através da concessão de benefícios fiscais sobre operações interestaduais com mercadorias importadas de modo a atrair empresas importadoras para o território do estado concedente. R13 diminuiu o nível da tributação sobre tais operações, esperando com isso diminuir os lucros auferidos e a propensão das firmas de aceitarem tais regimes especiais de incentivação fiscal. Nada obstante, R13 gerou uma grande discussão sobre se os benefícios da atração de investimentos para um estado em particular superariam ou não os custos que esse estado incorreria em renunciar receitas tributárias em razão concessão desses benefícios fiscais. O objetivo do presente trabalho é o de dar uma contribuição a essa discussão, testando se um comportamento de interação estratégica entre estados, tal como aquele que supostamente ocorre no contexto da FWP, de fato emerge dos dados de importação coletados de janeiro de 2010 a maio de 2015, e, também, testando se a R13 de fato afetou tal comportamento de interação estratégica. Utiliza-se aqui um modelo de econometria espacial, no qual se especifica uma matriz de pesos que agrega o nível de importação das jurisdições concorrentes, organizando os dados em um painel de efeitos fixos. Os resultados sugerem que existe um comportamento de interação estratégica entre os estados e que a R13 de fato impactou tal comportamento.

Analysis of the ABC Program resources

This is the executive summary of the second of four reports that compose, among others, the activities of the second working year of the ABC Plan Observatory1 . It aims to quantitatively and qualitatively analyze the ABC Program's performance – the main line of credit for the financing of low-carbon agriculture in Brazil. In addition to presenting high points of the results of the 2013/14 crop year, it also reveals a regional and state overview of the distribution of resources and a focus on the Legal Amazon situation regarding the adoption of low carbon agriculture methods in the region. The main theme for the analysis is the spatial distribution of the ABC Program's credit in the country and the reasons, bottlenecks and opportunities for the expansion of more sustainable production methods, especially regarding the conditions of Brazilian technical support and its activities among rural producers.

Semiparametric modeling of the spatial distribution of occupational accident risk in the casual labor market, Piracicaba, southeast Brazil

The objective of this study was to estimate the spatial distribution of work accident risk in the informal work market in the urban zone of an industrialized city in southeast Brazil and to examine concomitant effects of age, gender, and type of occupation after controlling for spatial risk variation. The basic methodology adopted was that of a population-based case-control study with particular interest focused on the spatial location of work. Cases were all casual workers in the city suffering work accidents during a one-year period; controls were selected from the source population of casual laborers by systematic random sampling of urban homes. The spatial distribution of work accidents was estimated via a semiparametric generalized additive model with a nonparametric bidimensional spline of the geographical coordinates of cases and controls as the nonlinear spatial component, and including age, gender, and occupation as linear predictive variables in the parametric component. We analyzed 1,918 cases and 2,245 controls between 1/11/2003 and 31/10/2004 in Piracicaba, Brazil. Areas of significantly high and low accident risk were identified in relation to mean risk in the study region (p < 0.01). Work accident risk for informal workers varied significantly in the study area. Significant age, gender, and occupational group effects on accident risk were identified after correcting for this spatial variation. A good understanding of high-risk groups and high-risk regions underpins the formulation of hypotheses concerning accident causality and the development of effective public accident prevention policies.

GPS receivers for georeferencing of spatial variability of soil attributes

A caracterização da variabilidade espacial dos atributos do solo é indispensável para subsidiar práticas agrícolas de maneira sustentável. A utilização da geoestatística para caracterizar a variabilidade espacial desses atributos, como a resistência mecânica do solo à penetração (RP) e a umidade gravimétrica do solo (UG), é, hoje, prática usual na agricultura de precisão. O resultado da análise geoestatística é dependente da densidade amostral e de outros fatores, como o método de georreferencimento utilizado. Desta forma, o presente trabalho teve como objetivo comparar dois métodos de georreferenciamento para a caracterização da variabilidade espacial da RP e da UG, bem como a correlação espacial dessas variáveis. Foi implantada uma malha amostral de 60 pontos, espaçados em 20 m. Para as medições da RP, utilizou-se de penetrógrafo eletrônico e, para a determinação da UG, utilizou-se de trado holandês (profundidade de 0,0-0,1 m). As amostras foram georreferenciadas, utilizando-se do método de Posicionamento por Ponto Simples (PPS), com de (retirar) receptor GPS de navegação, e Posicionamento Relativo Semicinemático, com receptor GPS geodésico L1. Os resultados indicaram que o georreferenciamento realizado pelo PPS não interferiu na caracterização da variabilidade espacial da RP e da UG, assim como na estrutura espacial da relação dos atributos.