The effects of location, feedstock availability, and supply-chain logistics on the greenhouse gas emissions of forest-biomass energy utilization in Finland

Forest biomass represents a geographically distributed feedstock, and geographical location affects the greenhouse gas (GHG) performance of a given forest-bioenergy system in several ways. For example, biomass availability, forest operations, transportation possibilities and the distances involved, biomass end-use possibilities, fossil reference systems, and forest carbon balances all depend to some extent on location. The overall objective of this thesis was to assess the GHG emissions derived from supply and energy-utilization chains of forest biomass in Finland, with a specific focus on the effect of location in relation to forest biomass’s availability and the transportation possibilities. Biomass availability and transportation-network assessments were conducted through utilization of geographical information system methods, and the GHG emissions were assessed by means of lifecycle assessment. The thesis is based on four papers in which forest biomass supply on industrial scale was assessed. The feedstocks assessed in this thesis include harvesting residues, smalldiameter energy wood and stumps. The principal implication of the findings in this thesis is that in Finland, the location and availability of biomass in the proximity of a given energyutilization or energy-conversion plant is not a decisive factor in supply-chain GHG emissions or the possible GHG savings to be achieved with forest-biomass energy use. Therefore, for the greatest GHG reductions with limited forest-biomass resources, energy utilization of forest biomass in Finland should be directed to the locations where most GHG savings are achieved through replacement of fossil fuels. Furthermore, one should prioritize the types of forest biomass with the lowest direct supply-chain GHG emissions (e.g., from transport and comminution) and the lowest indirect ones (in particular, soil carbon-stock losses), regardless of location. In this respect, the best combination is to use harvesting residues in combined heat and power production, replacing peat or coal.

Comparative lifecycle assessment on organic and conventional carrots – case: Carrots from South-Savo and imported carrots from Italy

Organic farming is perceived to be an environmental friendly method of food production, thus assumed to be an alternative means of minimizing food-based environmental footprints. However, lower yield and unproductive years in organic crop rotation raise questions of whether it is really an environmentally friendly farming practice. Thus, the aim of this thesis was to examine the carbon footprint and energy demands of organic carrots cultivated and sold in South-Savo, Finland and compare them with those of local and imported conventional carrots using lifecycle assessment (LCA) as a method. From the investigation, it was found that organic carrots produced in South-Savo have the lowest GHG emissions and energy demand. The GHG emissions of local organic, local conventional and imported conventional carrots were found to be 4g CO2 eq. kgcarrots-1, 142g CO2 eq. kgcarrots-1 and 280 g CO2 eq. kgcarrots-1, respectively. On the other hand, energy demand for those carrots was found to be 1,33 MJ, 1,88 MJ and 3,68 MJ kgcarrots-1. Furthermore, it was also found that local organic carrots would have approximately similar GHG emissions as conventional counterpart if soil carbon stock change was excluded from the study.

Räumliche Modellierung der Dynamik von Landnutzung in Hessen und ihrer Wirkung auf die biologische Kohlenstoffspeicherung - Entwicklung eines GIS-basierten Modellsystems

Die gegenwärtige Entwicklung der internationalen Klimapolitik verlangt von Deutschland eine Reduktion seiner Treibhausgasemissionen. Wichtigstes Treibhausgas ist Kohlendioxid, das durch die Verbrennung fossiler Energieträger in die Atmosphäre freigesetzt wird. Die Reduktionsziele können prinzipiell durch eine Verminderung der Emissionen sowie durch die Schaffung von Kohlenstoffsenken erreicht werden. Senken beschreiben dabei die biologische Speicherung von Kohlenstoff in Böden und Wäldern. Eine wichtige Einflussgröße auf diese Prozesse stellt die räumliche Dynamik der Landnutzung einer Region dar. In dieser Arbeit wird das Modellsystem HILLS entwickelt und zur Simulation dieser komplexen Wirkbeziehungen im Bundesland Hessen genutzt. Ziel ist es, mit HILLS über eine Analyse des aktuellen Zustands hinaus auch Szenarien über Wege der zukünftigen regionalen Entwicklung von Landnutzung und ihrer Wirkung auf den Kohlenstoffhaushalt bis 2020 zu untersuchen. Für die Abbildung der räumlichen und zeitlichen Dynamik von Landnutzung in Hessen wird das Modell LUCHesse entwickelt. Seine Aufgabe ist die Simulation der relevanten Prozesse auf einem 1 km2 Raster, wobei die Raten der Änderung exogen als Flächentrends auf Ebene der hessischen Landkreise vorgegeben werden. LUCHesse besteht aus Teilmodellen für die Prozesse: (A) Ausbreitung von Siedlungs- und Gewerbefläche, (B) Strukturwandel im Agrarsektor sowie (C) Neuanlage von Waldflächen (Aufforstung). Jedes Teilmodell umfasst Methoden zur Bewertung der Standorteignung der Rasterzellen für unterschiedliche Landnutzungsklassen und zur Zuordnung der Trendvorgaben zu solchen Rasterzellen, die jeweils am besten für eine Landnutzungsklasse geeignet sind. Eine Validierung der Teilmodelle erfolgt anhand von statistischen Daten für den Zeitraum von 1990 bis 2000. Als Ergebnis eines Simulationslaufs werden für diskrete Zeitschritte digitale Karten der Landnutzugsverteilung in Hessen erzeugt. Zur Simulation der Kohlenstoffspeicherung wird eine modifizierte Version des Ökosystemmodells Century entwickelt (GIS-Century). Sie erlaubt einen gesteuerten Simulationslauf in Jahresschritten und unterstützt die Integration des Modells als Komponente in das HILLS Modellsystem. Es werden verschiedene Anwendungsschemata für GIS-Century entwickelt, mit denen die Wirkung der Stilllegung von Ackerflächen, der Aufforstung sowie der Bewirtschaftung bereits bestehender Wälder auf die Kohlenstoffspeicherung untersucht werden kann. Eine Validierung des Modells und der Anwendungsschemata erfolgt anhand von Feld- und Literaturdaten. HILLS implementiert eine sequentielle Kopplung von LUCHesse mit GIS-Century. Die räumliche Kopplung geschieht dabei auf dem 1 km2 Raster, die zeitliche Kopplung über die Einführung eines Landnutzungsvektors, der die Beschreibung der Landnutzungsänderung einer Rasterzelle während des Simulationszeitraums enthält. Außerdem integriert HILLS beide Modelle über ein dienste- und datenbankorientiertes Konzept in ein Geografisches Informationssystem (GIS). Auf diesem Wege können die GIS-Funktionen zur räumlichen Datenhaltung und Datenverarbeitung genutzt werden. Als Anwendung des Modellsystems wird ein Referenzszenario für Hessen mit dem Zeithorizont 2020 berechnet. Das Szenario setzt im Agrarsektor eine Umsetzung der AGENDA 2000 Politik voraus, die in großem Maße zu Stilllegung von Ackerflächen führt, während für den Bereich Siedlung und Gewerbe sowie Aufforstung die aktuellen Trends der Flächenausdehnung fortgeschrieben werden. Mit HILLS ist es nun möglich, die Wirkung dieser Landnutzungsänderungen auf die biologische Kohlenstoffspeicherung zu quantifizieren. Während die Ausdehnung von Siedlungsflächen als Kohlenstoffquelle identifiziert werden kann (37 kt C/a), findet sich die wichtigste Senke in der Bewirtschaftung bestehender Waldflächen (794 kt C/a). Weiterhin führen die Stilllegung von Ackerfläche (26 kt C/a) sowie Aufforstung (29 kt C/a) zu einer zusätzlichen Speicherung von Kohlenstoff. Für die Kohlenstoffspeicherung in Böden zeigen die Simulationsexperimente sehr klar, dass diese Senke nur von beschränkter Dauer ist.

Modelling of global crop production and resulting N2O emissions

Landwirtschaft spielt eine zentrale Rolle im Erdsystem. Sie trägt durch die Emission von CO2, CH4 und N2O zum Treibhauseffekt bei, kann Bodendegradation und Eutrophierung verursachen, regionale Wasserkreisläufe verändern und wird außerdem stark vom Klimawandel betroffen sein. Da all diese Prozesse durch die zugrunde liegenden Nährstoff- und Wasserflüsse eng miteinander verknüpft sind, sollten sie in einem konsistenten Modellansatz betrachtet werden. Dennoch haben Datenmangel und ungenügendes Prozessverständnis dies bis vor kurzem auf der globalen Skala verhindert. In dieser Arbeit wird die erste Version eines solchen konsistenten globalen Modellansatzes präsentiert, wobei der Schwerpunkt auf der Simulation landwirtschaftlicher Erträge und den resultierenden N2O-Emissionen liegt. Der Grund für diese Schwerpunktsetzung liegt darin, dass die korrekte Abbildung des Pflanzenwachstums eine essentielle Voraussetzung für die Simulation aller anderen Prozesse ist. Des weiteren sind aktuelle und potentielle landwirtschaftliche Erträge wichtige treibende Kräfte für Landnutzungsänderungen und werden stark vom Klimawandel betroffen sein. Den zweiten Schwerpunkt bildet die Abschätzung landwirtschaftlicher N2O-Emissionen, da bislang kein prozessbasiertes N2O-Modell auf der globalen Skala eingesetzt wurde. Als Grundlage für die globale Modellierung wurde das bestehende Agrarökosystemmodell Daycent gewählt. Neben der Schaffung der Simulationsumgebung wurden zunächst die benötigten globalen Datensätze für Bodenparameter, Klima und landwirtschaftliche Bewirtschaftung zusammengestellt. Da für Pflanzzeitpunkte bislang keine globale Datenbasis zur Verfügung steht, und diese sich mit dem Klimawandel ändern werden, wurde eine Routine zur Berechnung von Pflanzzeitpunkten entwickelt. Die Ergebnisse zeigen eine gute Übereinstimmung mit Anbaukalendern der FAO, die für einige Feldfrüchte und Länder verfügbar sind. Danach wurde das Daycent-Modell für die Ertragsberechnung von Weizen, Reis, Mais, Soja, Hirse, Hülsenfrüchten, Kartoffel, Cassava und Baumwolle parametrisiert und kalibriert. Die Simulationsergebnisse zeigen, dass Daycent die wichtigsten Klima-, Boden- und Bewirtschaftungseffekte auf die Ertragsbildung korrekt abbildet. Berechnete Länderdurchschnitte stimmen gut mit Daten der FAO überein (R2 = 0.66 für Weizen, Reis und Mais; R2 = 0.32 für Soja), und räumliche Ertragsmuster entsprechen weitgehend der beobachteten Verteilung von Feldfrüchten und subnationalen Statistiken. Vor der Modellierung landwirtschaftlicher N2O-Emissionen mit dem Daycent-Modell stand eine statistische Analyse von N2O-und NO-Emissionsmessungen aus natürlichen und landwirtschaftlichen Ökosystemen. Die als signifikant identifizierten Parameter für N2O (Düngemenge, Bodenkohlenstoffgehalt, Boden-pH, Textur, Feldfrucht, Düngersorte) und NO (Düngemenge, Bodenstickstoffgehalt, Klima) entsprechen weitgehend den Ergebnissen einer früheren Analyse. Für Emissionen aus Böden unter natürlicher Vegetation, für die es bislang keine solche statistische Untersuchung gab, haben Bodenkohlenstoffgehalt, Boden-pH, Lagerungsdichte, Drainierung und Vegetationstyp einen signifikanten Einfluss auf die N2O-Emissionen, während NO-Emissionen signifikant von Bodenkohlenstoffgehalt und Vegetationstyp abhängen. Basierend auf den daraus entwickelten statistischen Modellen betragen die globalen Emissionen aus Ackerböden 3.3 Tg N/y für N2O, und 1.4 Tg N/y für NO. Solche statistischen Modelle sind nützlich, um Abschätzungen und Unsicherheitsbereiche von N2O- und NO-Emissionen basierend auf einer Vielzahl von Messungen zu berechnen. Die Dynamik des Bodenstickstoffs, insbesondere beeinflusst durch Pflanzenwachstum, Klimawandel und Landnutzungsänderung, kann allerdings nur durch die Anwendung von prozessorientierten Modellen berücksichtigt werden. Zur Modellierung von N2O-Emissionen mit dem Daycent-Modell wurde zunächst dessen Spurengasmodul durch eine detailliertere Berechnung von Nitrifikation und Denitrifikation und die Berücksichtigung von Frost-Auftau-Emissionen weiterentwickelt. Diese überarbeitete Modellversion wurde dann an N2O-Emissionsmessungen unter verschiedenen Klimaten und Feldfrüchten getestet. Sowohl die Dynamik als auch die Gesamtsummen der N2O-Emissionen werden befriedigend abgebildet, wobei die Modelleffizienz für monatliche Mittelwerte zwischen 0.1 und 0.66 für die meisten Standorte liegt. Basierend auf der überarbeiteten Modellversion wurden die N2O-Emissionen für die zuvor parametrisierten Feldfrüchte berechnet. Emissionsraten und feldfruchtspezifische Unterschiede stimmen weitgehend mit Literaturangaben überein. Düngemittelinduzierte Emissionen, die momentan vom IPCC mit 1.25 +/- 1% der eingesetzten Düngemenge abgeschätzt werden, reichen von 0.77% (Reis) bis 2.76% (Mais). Die Summe der berechneten Emissionen aus landwirtschaftlichen Böden beträgt für die Mitte der 1990er Jahre 2.1 Tg N2O-N/y, was mit den Abschätzungen aus anderen Studien übereinstimmt.

Evaluating the century C model using long-term fertilizer trials in the Indo-Gangetic Plains, India

The GEFSOC Project developed a system for estimating soil carbon (C) stocks and changes at the national and sub-national scale. As part of the development of the system, the Century ecosystem model was evaluated for its ability to simulate soil organic C (SOC) changes in environmental conditions in the Indo-Gangetic Plains, India (IGP). Two long-term fertilizer trials (LTFT), with all necessary parameters needed to run Century, were used for this purpose: a jute (Corchorus capsularis L.), rice (Oryza sativa L.) and wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) trial at Barrackpore, West Bengal, and a rice-wheat trial at Ludhiana, Punjab. The trials represent two contrasting climates of the IGP, viz. semi-arid, dry with mean annual rainfall (MAR) of < 800 mm and humid with > 1600 turn. Both trials involved several different treatments with different organic and inorganic fertilizer inputs. In general, the model tended to overestimate treatment effects by approximately 15%. At the semi-arid site, modelled data simulated actual data reasonably well for all treatments, with the control and chemical N + farm yard manure showing the best agreement (RMSE = 7). At the humid site, Century performed less well. This could have been due to a range of factors including site history. During the study, Century was calibrated to simulate crop yields for the two sites considered using data from across the Indian IGP. However, further adjustments may improve model performance at these sites and others in the IGP. The availability of more longterm experimental data sets (especially those involving flooded lowland rice and triple cropping systems from the IGP) for testing and validation is critical to the application of the model's predictive capabilities for this area of the Indian sub-continent. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Earthworms produce granules of intricately zoned calcite

Earthworms of the family Lumbricidae, which includes many common species, produce and secrete up to millimeter-sized calcite granules, and the intricate fine-scale zoning of their constituent crystals is unique for a biomineral. Granule calcite is produced by crystallization of amorphous calcium carbonate (ACC) that initially precipitates within the earthworm calciferous glands, then forms protogranules by accretion on quartz grain cores. Crystallization of ACC is mediated by migrating fluid films and is largely complete within 24 11 of ACC production and before granules leave the earthworm. Variations in the density of defects formed as a byproduct of trace element incorporation during calcite crystall growth have generated zoning that can be resolved by cathodoluminescence imaging at ultraviolet to blue wavelengths and using the novel technique of scanning electron microscope charge contrast imaging. Mapping of calcite crystal orientations by electron backscatter diffraction reveals an approximate radial fabric to the granules that reflects crystal growth from internal nucleation sites toward their margins. The survival within granules of ACC inclusions for months after they enter soils indicates that they crystallize only within the earthworm and in the presence of fluids containing biochemical catalysts. The earthworm probably promotes crystallization of ACC in order to prevent remobilization of the calcium carbonate by dissolution. Calcite granules vividly illustrate the role of transient precursors in biomineralization, but the underlying question of why earth-worms produce granules in volumes sufficient to have a measurable impact on soil carbon cycling remains to be answered.

Climate change and the British Uplands: evidence for decision-making

We summarise the work of an interdisciplinary network set up to explore the impacts of climate change in the British Uplands. In this CR Special, the contributors present the state of knowledge and this introduction synthesises this knowledge and derives implications for decision makers. The Uplands are valued semi-natural habitats, providing ecosystem services that have historically been taken for granted. For example, peat soils, which are mostly found in the Uplands, contain around 50% of the terrestrial carbon in the UK. Land management continues to be a driver of ecosystem service delivery. Degraded and managed peatlands are subject to erosion and carbon loss with negative impacts on biodiversity, carbon storage and water quality. Climate change is already being experienced in British Uplands and is likely to exacerbate these pressures. Climate envelope models suggest as much as 50% of British Uplands and peatlands will be exposed to climate stress by the end of the 21st century under low and high emissions scenarios. However, process-based models of the response of organic soils to this climate stress do not give a consistent indication of what this will mean for soil carbon: results range from a very slight increase in uptake, through a clear decline, to a net carbon loss. Preserving existing peat stocks is an important climate mitigation strategy, even if new peat stops forming. Preserving upland vegetation cover is a key win–win management strategy that will reduce erosion and loss of soil carbon, and protect a variety of services such as the continued delivery of a high quality water resource.

Assessment of projected changes in upland environments using simple climatic indices

Climate controls upland habitats, soils and their associated ecosystem services; therefore, understanding possible changes in upland climatic conditions can provide a rapid assessment of climatic vulnerability over the next century. We used 3 different climatic indices that were optimised to fit the upland area classified by the EU as a Severely Disadvantaged Area (SDA) 1961–1990. Upland areas within the SDA covered all altitudinal ranges, whereas the maximum altitude of lowland areas outside of the SDA was ca. 300 m. In general, the climatic index based on the ratio between annual accumulated temperature (as a measure of growing season length) and annual precipitation predicted 96% of the SDA mapped area, which was slightly better than those indices based on annual or seasonal water deficit. Overall, all climatic indices showed that upland environments were exposed to some degree of change by 2071–2100 under UKCIP02 climate projections for high and low emissions scenarios. The projected area declined by 13 to 51% across 3 indices for the low emissions scenario and by 24 to 84% for the high emissions scenario. Mean altitude of the upland area increased by +11 to +86 m for the low scenario and +21 to +178 m for the high scenario. Low altitude areas in eastern and southern Great Britain were most vulnerable to change. These projected climatic changes are likely to affect upland habitat composition, long-term soil carbon storage and wider ecosystem service provision, although it is not yet possible to determine the rate at which this might occur.

Terrestrial biogeochemical feedbacks in the climate system

The terrestrial biosphere is a key regulator of atmospheric chemistry and climate. During past periods of climate change, vegetation cover and interactions between the terrestrial biosphere and atmosphere changed within decades. Modern observations show a similar responsiveness of terrestrial biogeochemistry to anthropogenically forced climate change and air pollution. Although interactions between the carbon cycle and climate have been a central focus, other biogeochemical feedbacks could be as important in modulating future climate change. Total positive radiative forcings resulting from feedbacks between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere are estimated to reach up to 0.9 or 1.5 W m−2 K−1 towards the end of the twenty-first century, depending on the extent to which interactions with the nitrogen cycle stimulate or limit carbon sequestration. This substantially reduces and potentially even eliminates the cooling effect owing to carbon dioxide fertilization of the terrestrial biota. The overall magnitude of the biogeochemical feedbacks could potentially be similar to that of feedbacks in the physical climate system, but there are large uncertainties in the magnitude of individual estimates and in accounting for synergies between these effects.

REDD+ and community-controlled forests in low-income countries: any hope for a linkage?

Deforestation and forest degradation are estimated to account for between 12% and 20% of annual greenhouse gas emissions and in the 1990s (largely in the developing world) released about 5.8 Gt per year, which was bigger than all forms of transport combined. The idea behind REDD + is that payments for sequestering carbon can tip the economic balance away from loss of forests and in the process yield climate benefits. Recent analysis has suggested that developing country carbon sequestration can effectively compete with other climate investments as part of a cost effective climate policy. This paper focuses on opportunities and complications associated with bringing community-controlled forests into REDD +. About 25% of developing country forests are community controlled and therefore it is difficult to envision a successful REDD + without coming to terms with community controlled forests. It is widely agreed that REDD + offers opportunities to bring value to developing country forests, but there are also concerns driven by worries related to insecure and poorly defined community forest tenure, informed by often long histories of government unwillingness to meaningfully devolve to communities. Further, communities are complicated systems and it is therefore also of concern that REDD + could destabilize existing well-functioning community forestry systems.

Beyond urban legends : an emerging framework of urban ecology, as illustrated by the Baltimore Ecosystem Study

The emerging discipline of urban ecology is shifting focus from ecological processes embedded within cities to integrative studies of large urban areas as biophysical-social complexes. Yet this discipline lacks a theory. Results from the Baltimore Ecosystem Study, part of the Long Term Ecological Research Network, expose new assumptions and test existing assumptions about urban ecosystems. The findings suggest a broader range of structural and functional relationships than is often assumed for urban ecological systems. We address the relationships between social status and awareness of environmental problems, and between race and environmental hazard. We present patterns of species diversity, riparian function, and stream nitrate loading. In addition, we probe the suitability of land-use models, the diversity of soils, and the potential for urban carbon sequestration. Finally, we illustrate lags between social patterns and vegetation, the biogeochemistry of lawns, ecosystem nutrient retention, and social-biophysical feedbacks. These results suggest a framework for a theory of urban ecosystems.

An evidence-based review on the likely economic and environmental impact of genetically modified cereals and oilseeds for UK agriculture

An evidence-based review of the potential impact that the introduction of genetically-modified (GM) cereal and oilseed crops could have for the UK was carried out. The inter-disciplinary research project addressed the key research questions using scenarios for the uptake, or not, of GM technologies. This was followed by an extensive literature review, stakeholder consultation and financial modelling. The world area of canola, oilseed rape (OSR) low in both erucic acid in the oil and glucosinolates in the meal, was 34M ha in 2012 of which 27% was GM; Canada is the lead producer but it is also grown in the USA, Australia and Chile. Farm level effects of adopting GM OSR include: lower production costs; higher yields and profits; and ease of farm management. Growing GM OSR instead of conventional OSR reduces both herbicide usage and environmental impact. Some 170M ha of maize was grown in the world in 2011 of which 28% was GM; the main producers are the USA, China and Brazil. Spain is the main EU producer of GM maize although it is also grown widely in Portugal. Insect resistant (IR) and herbicide tolerant (HT) are the GM maize traits currently available commercially. Farm level benefits of adopting GM maize are lower costs of production through reduced use of pesticides and higher profits. GM maize adoption results in less pesticide usage than on conventional counterpart crops leading to less residues in food and animal feed and allowing increasing diversity of bees and other pollinators. In the EU, well-tried coexistence measures for growing GM crops in the proximity of conventional crops have avoided gene flow issues. Scientific evidence so far seems to indicate that there has been no environmental damage from growing GM crops. They may possibly even be beneficial to the environment as they result in less pesticides and herbicides being applied and improved carbon sequestration from less tillage. A review of work on GM cereals relevant for the UK found input trait work on: herbicide and pathogen tolerance; abiotic stress such as from drought or salinity; and yield traits under different field conditions. For output traits, work has mainly focussed on modifying the nutritional components of cereals and in connection with various enzymes, diagnostics and vaccines. Scrutiny of applications submitted for field trial testing of GM cereals found around 9000 applications in the USA, 15 in Australia and 10 in the EU since 1996. There have also been many patent applications and granted patents for GM cereals in the USA for both input and output traits;an indication of the scale of such work is the fact that in a 6 week period in the spring of 2013, 12 patents were granted relating to GM cereals. A dynamic financial model has enabled us to better understand and examine the likely performance of Bt maize and HT OSR for the south of the UK, if cultivation is permitted in the future. It was found that for continuous growing of Bt maize and HT OSR, unless there was pest pressure for the former and weed pressure for the latter, the seed premia and likely coexistence costs for a buffer zone between other crops would reduce the financial returns for the GM crops compared with their conventional counterparts. When modelling HT OSR in a four crop rotation, it was found that gross margins increased significantly at the higher levels of such pest or weed pressure, particularly for farm businesses with larger fields where coexistence costs would be scaled down. The impact of the supply of UK-produced GM crops on the wider supply chain was examined through an extensive literature review and widespread stakeholder consultation with the feed supply chain. The animal feed sector would benefit from cheaper supplies of raw materials if GM crops were grown and, in the future, they might also benefit from crops with enhanced nutritional profile (such as having higher protein levels) becoming available. This would also be beneficial to livestock producers enabling lower production costs and higher margins. Whilst coexistence measures would result in increased costs, it is unlikely that these would cause substantial changes in the feed chain structure. Retailers were not concerned about a future increase in the amount of animal feed coming from GM crops. To conclude, we (the project team) feel that the adoption of currently available and appropriate GM crops in the UK in the years ahead would benefit farmers, consumers and the feed chain without causing environmental damage. Furthermore, unless British farmers are allowed to grow GM crops in the future, the competitiveness of farming in the UK is likely to decline relative to that globally.