Progress Towards to Equity Market Integration in Eastern Europe

The advent of the European Union has decreased the diversification benefits available from country based equity market indices in the region. This paper measures the increase in stock integration between the three largest new EU members (Hungary, the Czech Republic and Poland who joined in May 2004) and the Euro-zone. A potentially gradual transition in correlations is accommodated in a single VAR model by embedding smooth transition conditional correlation models with fat tails, spillovers, volatility clustering, and asymmetric volatility effects. At the country market index level all three Eastern European markets show a considerable increase in correlations in 2006. At the industry level the dates and transition periods for the correlations differ, and the correlations are lower although also increasing. The results show that sectoral indices in Eastern European markets may provide larger diversification opportunities than the aggregate market. JEL classifications: C32; C51; F36; G15 Keywords: Multivariate GARCH; Smooth Transition Conditional Correlation; Stock Return Comovement; Sectoral correlations; New EU Members

A Comparison Of Forecasting Procedures For Macroeconomic Series: The Contribution Of Structural Break Models

This paper compares the forecasting performance of different models which have been proposed for forecasting in the presence of structural breaks. These models differ in their treatment of the break process, the parameters defining the model which applies in each regime and the out-of-sample probability of a break occurring. In an extensive empirical evaluation involving many important macroeconomic time series, we demonstrate the presence of structural breaks and their importance for forecasting in the vast majority of cases. However, we find no single forecasting model consistently works best in the presence of structural breaks. In many cases, the formal modeling of the break process is important in achieving good forecast performance. However, there are also many cases where simple, rolling OLS forecasts perform well.

A Comparison Of Forecasting Procedures For Macroeconomic Series: The Contribution Of Structural Break Models

This paper compares the forecasting performance of different models which have been proposed for forecasting in the presence of structural breaks. These models differ in their treatment of the break process, the parameters defining the model which applies in each regime and the out-of-sample probability of a break occurring. In an extensive empirical evaluation involving many important macroeconomic time series, we demonstrate the presence of structural breaks and their importance for forecasting in the vast majority of cases. However, we find no single forecasting model consistently works best in the presence of structural breaks. In many cases, the formal modeling of the break process is important in achieving good forecast performance. However, there are also many cases where simple, rolling OLS forecasts perform well.

Análisis y diseño de antenas dipolo y parche para aplicaciones implantadas en el cuerpo humano

En els darrers anys, els sistemes de telemetria per a aplicacions mèdiques han crescut significativament en el diagnòstic i en la monitorització de, per exemple, la glucosa, la pressió de la sang, la temperatura, el ritme cardíac... Els dispositius implantats amplien les aplicacions en medicina i incorpora una millora de qualitat de vida per a l’usuari. Per aquest motiu, en aquest projecte s’estudien dues de les antenes més comuns, com son l’antena dipol i el patch, aquesta última és especialment utilitzada en aplicacions implantades. En l’anàlisi d’aquestes antenes s’han parametritzat característiques relacionades amb l’entorn de l’aplicació, així com també de la pròpia antena, explicant el comportament que, a diferencia amb l’espai lliure, les antenes presenten a canvis d’aquests paràmetres. Al mateix temps, s’ha implementat una configuració per a la mesura d’antenes implantades basat en el model del cos humà d’una capa. Comparant amb els resultats de les simulacions realitzades mitjançant el software FEKO, s’ha obtingut gran correspondència en la mesura empírica d’adaptació i de guany de les antenes microstrip. Gràcies a l’anàlisi paramètric, aquest projecte també presenta diversos dissenys de les antenes optimitzant el guany realitzable amb l’objectiu d’aconseguir la millor comunicació possible amb el dispositiu extern o estació base.

PACIC Instrument: disentangling dimensions using published validation models.

OBJECTIVE: To better understand the structure of the Patient Assessment of Chronic Illness Care (PACIC) instrument. More specifically to test all published validation models, using one single data set and appropriate statistical tools. DESIGN: Validation study using data from cross-sectional survey. PARTICIPANTS: A population-based sample of non-institutionalized adults with diabetes residing in Switzerland (canton of Vaud). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: French version of the 20-items PACIC instrument (5-point response scale). We conducted validation analyses using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). The original five-dimension model and other published models were tested with three types of CFA: based on (i) a Pearson estimator of variance-covariance matrix, (ii) a polychoric correlation matrix and (iii) a likelihood estimation with a multinomial distribution for the manifest variables. All models were assessed using loadings and goodness-of-fit measures. RESULTS: The analytical sample included 406 patients. Mean age was 64.4 years and 59% were men. Median of item responses varied between 1 and 4 (range 1-5), and range of missing values was between 5.7 and 12.3%. Strong floor and ceiling effects were present. Even though loadings of the tested models were relatively high, the only model showing acceptable fit was the 11-item single-dimension model. PACIC was associated with the expected variables of the field. CONCLUSIONS: Our results showed that the model considering 11 items in a single dimension exhibited the best fit for our data. A single score, in complement to the consideration of single-item results, might be used instead of the five dimensions usually described.

On the term structure of Interbank interest rates: Jump-diffusion processes and option pricing

In this paper we study the dynamic behavior of the term structureof Interbank interest rates and the pricing of options on interest ratesensitive securities. We posit a generalized single factor model withjumps to take into account external influences in the market. Daily datais used to test for jump effects. Qualitative examination of the linkagebetween Monetary Authorities' interventions and jumps are studied. Pricingresults suggests a systematic underpricing in bonds and call options ifthe jumps component is not included. However, the pricing of put optionson bonds presents indeterminacies.

French version of the Family Attitude Scale: Psychometric properties and relation of attitudes to the respondent's psychiatric status.

The Family Attitude Scale (FAS) is a self-report measure of critical or hostile attitudes and behaviors towards another family member, and demonstrates an ability to predict relapse in psychoses. Data are not currently available on a French version of the scale. The present study developed a French version of the FAS, using a large general population sample to test its internal structure, criterion validity and relationships with the respondents' symptoms and psychiatric diagnoses, and examined the reciprocity of FAS ratings by respondents and their partners. A total of 2072 adults from an urban population undertook a diagnostic interview and completed self-report measures, including an FAS about their partner. A subset of participants had partners who also completed the FAS. Confirmatory factor analyses revealed an excellent fit by a single-factor model, and the FAS demonstrated a strong association with dyadic adjustment. FAS scores of respondents were affected by their anxiety levels and mood, alcohol and anxiety diagnoses, and moderate reciprocity of attitudes and behaviors between the partners was seen. The French version of the FAS has similarly strong psychometric properties to the original English version. Future research should assess the ability of the French FAS to predict relapse of psychiatric disorders.

Coexisting ferro- and antiferromagnetism in Ni2MnAl Heusler alloys

The structural and magnetic properties of stoichiometric Ni2MnAl are studied to clarify the conditions for ferromagnetic and antiferromagnetic ordering claimed to occur in this compound. X-ray and magnetization measurements show that although a single phase B2 structure can be stabilized at room temperature, a single L21 phase is not readily stabilized, but rather a mixed L21+B2 state occurs. The mixed state incorporates ferromagnetic and antiferromagnetic parts for which close-lying Curie and a Néel temperatures can be identified from magnetization measurements.

Synthesis of sodium-zinc spinel ferrites

The synthesis of spinel ferrites with composition Zn1-2xNaxFe2+xO4has been performed and the composition range in which single phase samples are obtained has been defined. The characterization of the samples has been carried out from atomic absorption and X-ray fluorescence analyses, X-ray diffraction patterns, Mössbauer spectroscopy and thermomagnetic measurements. It is show that significant loss of Na does exist when the synthesis is performed at high temperatures. When the Na volatilization is avoided spinel oxides with Na content up to 0.25 atoms per unit formula can be obtained. In this case the increase of the interatomic distances leads to differing fundamental magnetic properties as compared to the equivalent lithium-zinc ferrites.

Closing the gap between T-cell life span estimates from stable isotope-labeling studies in mice and humans.

Quantitative knowledge of the turnover of different leukocyte populations is a key to our understanding of immune function in health and disease. Much progress has been made thanks to the introduction of stable isotope labeling, the state-of-the-art technique for in vivo quantification of cellular life spans. Yet, even leukocyte life span estimates on the basis of stable isotope labeling can vary up to 10-fold among laboratories. We investigated whether these differences could be the result of variances in the length of the labeling period among studies. To this end, we performed deuterated water-labeling experiments in mice, in which only the length of label administration was varied. The resulting life span estimates were indeed dependent on the length of the labeling period when the data were analyzed using a commonly used single-exponential model. We show that multiexponential models provide the necessary tool to obtain life span estimates that are independent of the length of the labeling period. Use of a multiexponential model enabled us to reduce the gap between human T-cell life span estimates from 2 previously published labeling studies. This provides an important step toward unambiguous understanding of leukocyte turnover in health and disease.

Thermal and magnetic field-induced martensite-austenite transition in Ni50.3Mn35.3Sn14.4 ribbons

Thermal and field-induced martensite-austenite transition was studied in melt spun Ni50.3Mn35.3Sn14.4 ribbons. Its distinct highly ordered columnarlike microstructure normal to ribbon plane allows the direct observation of critical fields at which field-induced and highly hysteretic reverse transformation starts (H=17kOe at 240K), and easy magnetization direction for austenite and martensite phases with respect to the rolling direction. Single phase L21 bcc austenite with TC of 313K transforms into a 7M orthorhombic martensite with thermal hysteresis of 21K and transformation temperatures of MS=226K, Mf=218K, AS=237K, and Af=244K

Ensemble methods for environmental data modelling with support vector regression

This paper investigates the use of ensemble of predictors in order to improve the performance of spatial prediction methods. Support vector regression (SVR), a popular method from the field of statistical machine learning, is used. Several instances of SVR are combined using different data sampling schemes (bagging and boosting). Bagging shows good performance, and proves to be more computationally efficient than training a single SVR model while reducing error. Boosting, however, does not improve results on this specific problem.

Multi-source composite kernels for urban image classification

This letter presents advanced classification methods for very high resolution images. Efficient multisource information, both spectral and spatial, is exploited through the use of composite kernels in support vector machines. Weighted summations of kernels accounting for separate sources of spectral and spatial information are analyzed and compared to classical approaches such as pure spectral classification or stacked approaches using all the features in a single vector. Model selection problems are addressed, as well as the importance of the different kernels in the weighted summation.

Unification of multi-species vertebrate anatomy ontologies for comparative biology in Uberon.

BACKGROUND: Elucidating disease and developmental dysfunction requires understanding variation in phenotype. Single-species model organism anatomy ontologies (ssAOs) have been established to represent this variation. Multi-species anatomy ontologies (msAOs; vertebrate skeletal, vertebrate homologous, teleost, amphibian AOs) have been developed to represent 'natural' phenotypic variation across species. Our aim has been to integrate ssAOs and msAOs for various purposes, including establishing links between phenotypic variation and candidate genes. RESULTS: Previously, msAOs contained a mixture of unique and overlapping content. This hampered integration and coordination due to the need to maintain cross-references or inter-ontology equivalence axioms to the ssAOs, or to perform large-scale obsolescence and modular import. Here we present the unification of anatomy ontologies into Uberon, a single ontology resource that enables interoperability among disparate data and research groups. As a consequence, independent development of TAO, VSAO, AAO, and vHOG has been discontinued. CONCLUSIONS: The newly broadened Uberon ontology is a unified cross-taxon resource for metazoans (animals) that has been substantially expanded to include a broad diversity of vertebrate anatomical structures, permitting reasoning across anatomical variation in extinct and extant taxa. Uberon is a core resource that supports single- and cross-species queries for candidate genes using annotations for phenotypes from the systematics, biodiversity, medical, and model organism communities, while also providing entities for logical definitions in the Cell and Gene Ontologies. THE ONTOLOGY RELEASE FILES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONTOLOGY MERGE DESCRIBED IN THIS MANUSCRIPT ARE AVAILABLE AT: http://purl.obolibrary.org/obo/uberon/releases/2013-02-21/ CURRENT ONTOLOGY RELEASE FILES ARE AVAILABLE ALWAYS AVAILABLE AT: http://purl.obolibrary.org/obo/uberon/releases/

Putkilämmönsiirtimien mitoitustyökalujen kehittäminen

Diplomityön tarkoituksena on kehittää tietokoneohjelma putkilämmönsiirtimen vaippapuolen painehäviön laskemiseksi. Ohjelmalla voidaan varmistaa lämmönsiirtimen mitoitusvaiheessa, että vaippapuolen painehäviö ei ylitä sallittuja rajoja. Ohjelmatäydentää olemassa olevia mitoitusohjelmia. Tässä diplomityössä käsitellään ainoastaan höyryvoimalaitosprosesseissa käytettäviä putkilämmönsiirtimiä. Työn kirjallisessa osassa on selvitetty periaate höyryvoimalaitosprosessista ja siinä käytettävistä putkilämmönsiirtimistä sekä esitetty putkilämmönsiirtimien rakenne, yleinen suunnittelu ja lämpö- ja virtaustekninen mitoitus. Painehäviön laskennassa käytetyt ja lämpö- ja virtausteknistä mitoitusta käsittelevässä kappaleessa esitetyt yhtälöt perustuvat Bell-Delawaren menetelmään. Painehäviönlaskentaohjelma on toteutettu hyväksikäyttäen Microsoft Excel taulukkolaskentaa ja Visual Basic -ohjelmointikieltä. Painehäviön laskenta perustuu segmenttivälilevyillä varustetun putkilämmönsiirtimen vaippapuolen yksifaasivirtaukseen. Lämmönsiirtimen lauhdutinosan painehäviö oletetaan merkityksettömäksi, joten kokonaispainehäviö muodostuu höyryn- ja lauhteenjäähdyttimessä. Kehitetty ohjelma on suunniteltu erityisesti lauhteenjäähdyttimessä muodostuvan painehäviön laskentaan. Ohjelmalla laskettuja painehäviön arvoja on verrattu todellisesta lämmönsiirtimestä mitattuihin arvoihin. Lasketut arvotvastaavat hyvin mittaamalla saatuja, eikä tuloksissa ilmene mitään systemaattista virhettä. Ohjelma on valmis käytettäväksi putkilämmönsiirtimien mitoitustyökaluna. Diplomityön pohjalta on tehty ehdotukset ohjelman edelleen kehittämiseksi.